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Sensitivity-based state and parameter moving horizon estimation method for liquid propellant rocket engine
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作者 Zizhao WANG Dan WANG +2 位作者 Hongyu CHEN Zhijiang SHAO Zhengyu SONG 《Chinese Journal of Aeronautics》 2025年第7期46-60,共15页
The reuse of liquid propellant rocket engines has increased the difficulty of their control and estimation.State and parameter Moving Horizon Estimation(MHE)is an optimization-based strategy that provides the necessar... The reuse of liquid propellant rocket engines has increased the difficulty of their control and estimation.State and parameter Moving Horizon Estimation(MHE)is an optimization-based strategy that provides the necessary information for model predictive control.Despite the many advantages of MHE,long computation time has limited its applications for system-level models of liquid propellant rocket engines.To address this issue,we propose an asynchronous MHE method called advanced-multi-step MHE with Noise Covariance Estimation(amsMHE-NCE).This method computes the MHE problem asynchronously to obtain the states and parameters and can be applied to multi-threaded computations.In the background,the state and covariance estimation optimization problems are computed using multiple sampling times.In real-time,sensitivity is used to quickly approximate state and parameter estimates.A covariance estimation method is developed using sensitivity to avoid redundant MHE problem calculations in case of sensor degradation during engine reuse.The amsMHE-NCE is validated through three cases based on the space shuttle main engine system-level model,and we demonstrate that it can provide more accurate real-time estimates of states and parameters compared to other commonly used estimation methods. 展开更多
关键词 Sensitivity Moving horizon estimation Noise covariance estimation parameter estimation Liquid propellant rocket engine
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Analysis and estimation of wave-induced Doppler shift from low-incidence-angle RAR based on sea state parameters
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作者 Jing Ye Yong Wan +3 位作者 Chenqing Fan Yongshou Dai Yisen Yang Xiangying Miao 《Acta Oceanologica Sinica》 2025年第9期169-182,共14页
The research on ocean dynamics information plays a crucial role in understanding ocean phenomena, assessing marine environmental impacts, and guiding engineering designs. The Doppler information observed by radars ref... The research on ocean dynamics information plays a crucial role in understanding ocean phenomena, assessing marine environmental impacts, and guiding engineering designs. The Doppler information observed by radars reflects sea surface dynamics, to which ocean waves make important contributions. Low-incidence-angle real aperture radar(RAR)demonstrates great potential for independently observing vectorial Doppler information on the ocean surface. To systematically characterize and accurately estimate the wave-induced Doppler frequency shift(WVF) from lowincidence-angle RAR, this study conducts comprehensive influencing factor analysis and establishes sea-stateparameterized WVF models. First, a simulated WVF dataset is generated under a rotating low-incidence-angle RAR.The feature parameters of WVF are then determined by analysing contributing factors including wind waves, swells,and sea state parameters. Furthermore, two WVF models(WVF_Ku P9 with 9 inputs and WVF_Ku P4 with 4 inputs) are constructed by the Transformer encoder for different application scenarios. Both models achieve high accuracy for WVF estimation with root mean square errors(RMSE) of 1.874 Hz and 2.716 Hz, respectively. The reliability and superiority of the proposed models are validated through comparisons with the Ka DOP, which is a typical geophysical model function(GMF). The findings in this paper advance the understanding of WVF characteristics and generation mechanisms. The proposed estimation models can provide reliable estimates, offering critical references for lowincidence-angle RAR applications such as ocean surface current retrieval. 展开更多
关键词 wave-induced Doppler shift parameter estimation low-incidence-angle real aperture radar sea state parameters Transformer encoder
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Online Estimation Method of Train Wheel-Rail Adhesion Coefficient Based on Parameter Estimation
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作者 Yi Zhang Wenliang Zhu +2 位作者 Hanbin Wang Chun Tian Jiajun Zhou 《Computer Modeling in Engineering & Sciences》 2025年第9期2873-2891,共19页
Aiming to address the challenge of directly measuring the real-time adhesion coefficient between wheels and rails,this paper proposes an online estimation algorithm for the adhesion coefficient based on parameter esti... Aiming to address the challenge of directly measuring the real-time adhesion coefficient between wheels and rails,this paper proposes an online estimation algorithm for the adhesion coefficient based on parameter estimation.Firstly,a force analysis of the single-wheel pair model of the train is conducted to derive the calculation relationship for the wheel-rail adhesion coefficient in train dynamics.Then,an estimator based on parameter estimation is designed,and its stability is verified.This estimator is combined with the wheelset force analysis to estimate the wheel-rail adhesion coefficient.Finally,the approach is validated through joint simulations on the MATLAB/Simulink and AMESim platforms,as well as a hardware-in-the-loop semi-physical simulation experimental platform that accounts for system delay and noise conditions.The results indicate that the proposed algorithm effectively tracks changes in the adhesion coefficient during train braking,including the decrease in adhesion when the train brakes and slides,and the overall increase as the train speed decreases.The effectiveness of the algorithm was verified by setting different test conditions.The results show that the estimation algorithm can accurately estimate the adhesion coefficient,and through error analysis,it is found that the error between the estimated value of the adhesion coefficient and the theoretical value of the adhesion coefficient is within 5%.The adhesion coefficient obtained through the online estimation method based on the parameter estimation proposed in this paper demonstrates strong followability in both simulation and practical applications. 展开更多
关键词 Hardware-in-the-loop simulation online parameter estimation rail vehicle wheel-rail adhesion
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Parameters Estimation of Modified Triple Diode Model of PSCs Considering Charge Accumulations and Electric Field Effects Using Puma Optimizer
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作者 Amlak Abaza Ragab A.El-Sehiemy +1 位作者 Mona Gafar Ahmed Bayoumi 《Computer Modeling in Engineering & Sciences》 2025年第4期723-745,共23页
Promoting the high penetration of renewable energies like photovoltaic(PV)systems has become an urgent issue for expanding modern power grids and has accomplished several challenges compared to existing distribution g... Promoting the high penetration of renewable energies like photovoltaic(PV)systems has become an urgent issue for expanding modern power grids and has accomplished several challenges compared to existing distribution grids.This study measures the effectiveness of the Puma optimizer(PO)algorithm in parameter estimation of PSC(perovskite solar cells)dynamic models with hysteresis consideration considering the electric field effects on operation.The models used in this study will incorporate hysteresis effects to capture the time-dependent behavior of PSCs accurately.The PO optimizes the proposed modified triple diode model(TDM)with a variable voltage capacitor and resistances(VVCARs)considering the hysteresis behavior.The suggested PO algorithm contrasts with other wellknown optimizers from the literature to demonstrate its superiority.The results emphasize that the PO realizes a lower RMSE(Root mean square errors),which proves its capability and efficacy in parameter extraction for the models.The statistical results emphasize the efficiency and supremacy of the proposed PO compared to the other well-known competing optimizers.The convergence rates show good,fast,and stable convergence rates with lower RMSE via PO compared to the other five competitive optimizers.Moreover,the lowermean realized via the PO optimizer is illustrated by the box plot for all optimizers. 展开更多
关键词 Dynamic model of PSCs puma optimizer parameter estimation triple diode model
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High Resolution Sparse Imaging and Doppler Parameter Estimation of Fucheng⁃1 SAR Satellite
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作者 CAI Fuxuan ZHU Ziyi +1 位作者 SONG Yufan BI Hui 《Transactions of Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics》 2025年第4期487-496,共10页
In recent years,the development of domestic commercial synthetic aperture radar(SAR)is in full swing,with multiple commercial SAR satellites in orbit,showing great potential in disaster monitoring,natural resource man... In recent years,the development of domestic commercial synthetic aperture radar(SAR)is in full swing,with multiple commercial SAR satellites in orbit,showing great potential in disaster monitoring,natural resource management and deformation observation.Fucheng-1 is the first C-band commercial SAR satellite for interferometric SAR(InSAR)service developed by Spacety China,which marks the gradual maturity of China’s remote sensing data service.Based on the raw data collected by Fucheng-1,this paper firstly introduces the range-Doppler algorithm(RDA),then illustrates the parameter estimation method on the basis of fractional Fourier transform(FrFT)to realize the accurate estimation of azimuth chirp rate,which effectively improves imaging quality.Finally,the L1-norm regularization based sparse imaging method is utilized to reconstruct images from down-sampled data.Experimental results show that the sparse imaging algorithm can accurately reconstruct the down-sampled Fucheng-1 data and suppress sidelobes and clutter. 展开更多
关键词 Fucheng-1 synthetic aperture radar(SAR) sparse SAR imaging parameter estimation
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Incoherence parameter estimation and multiband fusion based on the novel structure-enhanced spatial spectrum algorithm
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作者 JIANG Libing ZHENG Shuyu +2 位作者 YANG Qingwei ZHANG Xiaokuan WANG Zhuang 《Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics》 2025年第4期867-879,共13页
In order to obtain better inverse synthetic aperture radar(ISAR)image,a novel structure-enhanced spatial spectrum is proposed for estimating the incoherence parameters and fusing multiband.The proposed method takes fu... In order to obtain better inverse synthetic aperture radar(ISAR)image,a novel structure-enhanced spatial spectrum is proposed for estimating the incoherence parameters and fusing multiband.The proposed method takes full advantage of the original electromagnetic scattering data and its conjugated form by combining them with the novel covariance matrices.To analyse the superiority of the modified algorithm,the mathematical expression of equivalent signal to noise ratio(SNR)is derived,which can validate our proposed algorithm theoretically.In addition,compared with the conventional matrix pencil(MP)algorithm and the conventional root-multiple signal classification(Root-MUSIC)algorithm,the proposed algorithm has better parameter estimation performance and more accurate multiband fusion results at the same SNR situations.Validity and effectiveness of the proposed algorithm is demonstrated by simulation data and real radar data. 展开更多
关键词 multiband fusion incoherence parameter estimation matrix pencil(MP) root-multiple signal classification(Root-MUSIC) covariance matrix.
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Parameter estimation of the stochastic AMR model and its application to the study of several strong earthquakes 被引量:3
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作者 王丽凤 马丽 +1 位作者 DavidVere-Jones 陈时军 《地震学报》 CSCD 北大核心 2004年第2期162-173,共12页
Based on the stochastic AMR model, this paper constructs man-made earthquake catalogues to investigate the property of parameter estimation of the model. Then the stochastic AMR model is applied to the study of severa... Based on the stochastic AMR model, this paper constructs man-made earthquake catalogues to investigate the property of parameter estimation of the model. Then the stochastic AMR model is applied to the study of several strong earthquakes in China and New Zealand. Akaikes AIC criterion is used to discriminate whether an accelerating mode of earthquake activity precedes those events or not. Finally, regional accelerating seismic activity and possible prediction approach for future strong earthquakes are discussed. 展开更多
关键词 随机AMR模型 参数估计 最大似然法 AIC准则 强震 地震预报 地震活动
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Yield Estimation Model of Citrus Based on Spectral Data and Agronomic Parameters 被引量:1
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作者 邹扬庆 罗红霞 +3 位作者 Habtom Yemane Tekle 王俊 余天霞 张锐 《Agricultural Science & Technology》 CAS 2013年第10期1513-1516,共4页
With the development of precision agriculture, the research that applies Remote Sensing technology, especially hyperspectral remote sensing, to realize crop management, monitoring and yield estimation, has been concer... With the development of precision agriculture, the research that applies Remote Sensing technology, especially hyperspectral remote sensing, to realize crop management, monitoring and yield estimation, has been concerned. Nowadays, the growth-monitoring and yield-estimating methods in rice, wheat and other annual crops develop rapidly with some achievements having already been put into service. But the yield estimation research on perennial economic crops is few. Taking peren- nial citrus trees as the research object, using ASD spectrometer to collect citrus canopy spectral, this article studied and analyzed the citrus of veget&tion index and its relationship on yield, synthetically considered the influence of the agriculture pa- rameters on crop yield, and finally constructed the citrus yield estimation model based on the spectral data and agronomic parameters. Through the Significance Test and Samples' Test, olutained that the model's fitting degree was R=0.631, F= 13.201, P〈0.01 and the error rate of estimating accuracy was controlled in the range 3%-16%, proving that the model has statistical signification and reliability. It concluded that hyperspectral acquired from citrus canopy has substantial potential for citrus yield estimation. This study is an application and exploration of Hyperspectral Remote Sensing technology in the citrus yield estimation. 展开更多
关键词 CITRUS Yield estimation Hyperspectral data Agronomic parameter
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Selection of the Linear Regression Model According to the Parameter Estimation 被引量:35
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作者 Sun Dao-de Department of Computer, Fuyang Teachers College, Anhui 236032,China 《Wuhan University Journal of Natural Sciences》 EI CAS 2000年第4期400-405,共6页
In this paper, based on the theory of parameter estimation, we give a selection method and, in a sense of a good character of the parameter estimation, we think that it is very reasonable. Moreover, we offer a calcula... In this paper, based on the theory of parameter estimation, we give a selection method and, in a sense of a good character of the parameter estimation, we think that it is very reasonable. Moreover, we offer a calculation method of selection statistic and an applied example. 展开更多
关键词 parameter estimation linear regression model selection criterion mean square error
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LAD PARAMETER ESTIMATION of SaS BASED on SAMPLE CHARACTERISTIC FUNCTION
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作者 陈高波 《科技信息》 2010年第25期I0028-I0028,I0027,共2页
Parameter estimation to alpha stable distribution is difficult for without a explicit probability density function. On the base of sample characteristic function,an iterative LAD parameter estimation algorithm for SaS... Parameter estimation to alpha stable distribution is difficult for without a explicit probability density function. On the base of sample characteristic function,an iterative LAD parameter estimation algorithm for SaS is discussed. The example illustrates that the algorithm is feasible and efficient. 展开更多
关键词 概率 密度函数 计算方法 迭代参数
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Aerodynamic Modeling and Parameter Estimation from QAR Data of an Airplane Approaching a High-altitude Airport 被引量:22
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作者 WANG Qing WU Kaiyuan +2 位作者 ZHANG Tianjiao KONG Yi'nan QIAN Weiqi 《Chinese Journal of Aeronautics》 SCIE EI CSCD 2012年第3期361-371,共11页
Aerodynamic modeling and parameter estimation from quick accesses recorder (QAR) data is an important technical way to analyze the effects of highland weather conditions upon aerodynamic characteristics of airplane.... Aerodynamic modeling and parameter estimation from quick accesses recorder (QAR) data is an important technical way to analyze the effects of highland weather conditions upon aerodynamic characteristics of airplane. It is also an essential content of flight accident analysis. The related techniques are developed in the present paper, including the geometric method for angle of attack and sideslip angle estimation, the extended Kalman filter associated with modified Bryson-Frazier smoother (EKF-MBF) method for aerodynamic coefficient identification, the radial basis function (RBF) neural network method for aerodynamic mod- eling, and the Delta method for stability/control derivative estimation. As an application example, the QAR data of a civil air- plane approaching a high-altitude airport are processed and the aerodynamic coefficient and derivative estimates are obtained. The estimation results are reasonable, which shows that the developed techniques are feasible. The causes for the distribution of aerodynamic derivative estimates are analyzed. Accordingly, several measures to improve estimation accuracy are put forward. 展开更多
关键词 civil airplane AERODYNAMICS QAR data aerodynamic modeling aerodynamic parameter estimation flight safety EKF-MBF method neural network
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Adaptive unscented Kalman filter for parameter and state estimation of nonlinear high-speed objects 被引量:11
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作者 Fang Deng Jie Chen Chen Chen 《Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics》 SCIE EI CSCD 2013年第4期655-665,共11页
An adaptive unscented Kalman filter (AUKF) and an augmented state method are employed to estimate the timevarying parameters and states of a kind of nonlinear high-speed objects. A strong tracking filter is employed... An adaptive unscented Kalman filter (AUKF) and an augmented state method are employed to estimate the timevarying parameters and states of a kind of nonlinear high-speed objects. A strong tracking filter is employed to improve the tracking ability and robustness of unscented Kalman filter (UKF) when the process noise is inaccuracy, and wavelet transform is used to improve the estimate accuracy by the variance of measurement noise. An augmented square-root framework is utilized to improve the numerical stability and accuracy of UKF. Monte Carlo simulations and applications in the rapid trajectory estimation of hypersonic artillery shells confirm the effectiveness of the proposed method. 展开更多
关键词 parameter estimation state estimation unscented Kalman filter (UKF) strong tracking filter wavelet transform.
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Parameter estimation for chaotic systems using the cuckoo search algorithm with an orthogonal learning method 被引量:14
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作者 李向涛 殷明浩 《Chinese Physics B》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2012年第5期113-118,共6页
We study the parameter estimation of a nonlinear chaotic system,which can be essentially formulated as a multidimensional optimization problem.In this paper,an orthogonal learning cuckoo search algorithm is used to es... We study the parameter estimation of a nonlinear chaotic system,which can be essentially formulated as a multidimensional optimization problem.In this paper,an orthogonal learning cuckoo search algorithm is used to estimate the parameters of chaotic systems.This algorithm can combine the stochastic exploration of the cuckoo search and the exploitation capability of the orthogonal learning strategy.Experiments are conducted on the Lorenz system and the Chen system.The proposed algorithm is used to estimate the parameters for these two systems.Simulation results and comparisons demonstrate that the proposed algorithm is better or at least comparable to the particle swarm optimization and the genetic algorithm when considering the quality of the solutions obtained. 展开更多
关键词 cuckoo search algorithm chaotic system parameter estimation orthogonal learning
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Parameter identification of hysteretic model of rubber-bearing based on sequential nonlinear least-square estimation 被引量:10
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作者 Yin Qiang Zhou Li Wang Xinming 《Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration》 SCIE EI CSCD 2010年第3期375-383,共9页
In order to evaluate the nonlinear performance and the possible damage to rubber-bearings (RBs) during their normal operation or under strong earthquakes, a simplified Bouc-Wen model is used to describe the nonlinea... In order to evaluate the nonlinear performance and the possible damage to rubber-bearings (RBs) during their normal operation or under strong earthquakes, a simplified Bouc-Wen model is used to describe the nonlinear hysteretic behavior of RBs in this paper, which has the advantages of being smooth-varying and physically motivated. Further, based on the results from experimental tests performed by using a particular type of RB (GZN 110) under different excitation scenarios, including white noise and several earthquakes, a new system identification method, referred to as the sequential nonlinear least- square estimation (SNLSE), is introduced to identify the model parameters. It is shown that the proposed simplified Bouc- Wen model is capable of describing the nonlinear hysteretic behavior of RBs, and that the SNLSE approach is very effective in identifying the model parameters of RBs. 展开更多
关键词 parameter identification rubber-bearing hysteretic behavior Bouc-Wen model sequential nonlinear least- square estimation
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UBSS and blind parameters estimation algorithms for synchronous orthogonal FH signals 被引量:12
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作者 Weihong Fu Yongqiang Hei Xiaohui Li 《Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics》 SCIE EI CSCD 2014年第6期911-920,共10页
By using the sparsity of frequency hopping(FH) signals,an underdetermined blind source separation(UBSS) algorithm is presented. Firstly, the short time Fourier transform(STFT) is performed on the mixed signals. ... By using the sparsity of frequency hopping(FH) signals,an underdetermined blind source separation(UBSS) algorithm is presented. Firstly, the short time Fourier transform(STFT) is performed on the mixed signals. Then, the mixing matrix, hopping frequencies, hopping instants and the hooping rate can be estimated by the K-means clustering algorithm. With the estimated mixing matrix, the directions of arrival(DOA) of source signals can be obtained. Then, the FH signals are sorted and the FH pattern is obtained. Finally, the shortest path algorithm is adopted to recover the time domain signals. Simulation results show that the correlation coefficient between the estimated FH signal and the source signal is above 0.9 when the signal-to-noise ratio(SNR) is higher than 0 d B and hopping parameters of multiple FH signals in the synchronous orthogonal FH network can be accurately estimated and sorted under the underdetermined conditions. 展开更多
关键词 frequency hopping(FH) underdetermined blind source separation(UBSS) parameters estimation CLUSTERING
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Dynamic threshold for SPWVD parameter estimation based on Otsu algorithm 被引量:11
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作者 Ning Ma Jianxin Wang 《Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics》 SCIE EI CSCD 2013年第6期919-924,共6页
Time-frequency-based methods are proven to be effective for parameter estimation of linear frequency modulation (LFM) signals. The smoothed pseudo Winger-Ville distribution (SPWVD) is used for the parameter estima... Time-frequency-based methods are proven to be effective for parameter estimation of linear frequency modulation (LFM) signals. The smoothed pseudo Winger-Ville distribution (SPWVD) is used for the parameter estimation of multi-LFM signals, and a method of the SPWVD binarization by a dynamic threshold based on the Otsu algorithm is proposed. The proposed method is effective in the demand for the estimation of different parameters and the unknown signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) circumstance. The performance of this method is confirmed by numerical simulation. 展开更多
关键词 parameter estimation smoothed pseudo Winger-Ville distribution (SPWVD) dynamic threshold Otsu algorithm
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Dynamics analysis of chaotic maps: From perspective on parameter estimation by meta-heuristic algorithm 被引量:4
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作者 Yue-Xi Peng Ke-Hui Sun Shao-Bo He 《Chinese Physics B》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2020年第3期112-118,共7页
Chaotic encryption is one of hot topics in cryptography, which has received increasing attention. Among many encryption methods, chaotic map is employed as an important source of pseudo-random numbers(PRNS). Although ... Chaotic encryption is one of hot topics in cryptography, which has received increasing attention. Among many encryption methods, chaotic map is employed as an important source of pseudo-random numbers(PRNS). Although the randomness and the butterfly effect of chaotic map make the generated sequence look very confused, its essence is still the deterministic behavior generated by a set of deterministic parameters. Therefore, the unceasing improved parameter estimation technology becomes one of potential threats for chaotic encryption, enhancing the attacking effect of the deciphering methods. In this paper, for better analyzing the cryptography, we focus on investigating the condition of chaotic maps to resist parameter estimation. An improved particle swarm optimization(IPSO) algorithm is introduced as the estimation method. Furthermore, a new piecewise principle is proposed for increasing estimation precision. Detailed experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the new estimation principle, and some new requirements are summarized for a secure chaotic encryption system. 展开更多
关键词 parameter estimation CHAOTIC MAP PARTICLE SWARM optimization CHAOTIC ENCRYPTION
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Parameter estimation of DSSS signals in non-cooperative communication system 被引量:3
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作者 Zhang Xiaoming Zhang Zhongzhao 《Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics》 SCIE EI CSCD 2007年第1期14-21,共8页
A new adaptive estimator for direct sequence spread spectrum (DSSS) signals using fourth-order cumulant based adaptive method is considered. The general higher-order statistics may not be easily applied in signal pr... A new adaptive estimator for direct sequence spread spectrum (DSSS) signals using fourth-order cumulant based adaptive method is considered. The general higher-order statistics may not be easily applied in signal processing with too complex computation. Based on the fourth-order cumulant with 1-D slices and adaptive filters, an efficient algorithm is proposed to solve the problem and is extended for nonstationary stochastic processes. In order to achieve the accurate parameter estimation of direct sequence spread spectrum (DSSS) signals, the fast step uses the modified fourth-order cumulant to reduce the computing complexity. While the second step employs an adaptive recursive system to estimate the power spectrum in the frequency domain. In the case of intercepted signals without large enough data samples, the estimator provides good performance in parameter estimation and white Gaussian noise suppression. Computer simulations are included to corroborate the theoretical development with different signal-to-noise ratio conditions and recursive coefficients. 展开更多
关键词 Four order cumulant parameter estimation Adaptive estimator DSSS signal
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Parameter estimation for multirate multi-input systems using auxiliary model and multi-innovation 被引量:3
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作者 Lili Han Feng Ding 《Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics》 SCIE EI CSCD 2010年第6期1079-1083,共5页
The multirate multi-input systems have different updating periods and sampling periods such that the conventional identification algorithms cannot be used to identify such multirate systems. By using the auxiliary mod... The multirate multi-input systems have different updating periods and sampling periods such that the conventional identification algorithms cannot be used to identify such multirate systems. By using the auxiliary model identification idea, the multiinnovation stochastic gradient algorithm is developed to estimate the parameters of multirate systems. Finally, an illustrative example is given to verify the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm. 展开更多
关键词 parameter estimation multirate systems multiinnovation auxiliary model.
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Optimal Parameter and Uncertainty Estimation of a Land Surface Model: Sensitivity to Parameter Ranges and Model Complexities 被引量:2
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作者 YoulongXIA Zong-LiangYANG +1 位作者 PaulL.STOFFA MrinalK.SEN 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2005年第1期142-157,共16页
Most previous land-surface model calibration studies have defined globalranges for their parameters to search for optimal parameter sets. Little work has been conducted tostudy the impacts of realistic versus global r... Most previous land-surface model calibration studies have defined globalranges for their parameters to search for optimal parameter sets. Little work has been conducted tostudy the impacts of realistic versus global ranges as well as model complexities on the calibrationand uncertainty estimates. The primary purpose of this paper is to investigate these impacts byemploying Bayesian Stochastic Inversion (BSI) to the Chameleon Surface Model (CHASM). The CHASM wasdesigned to explore the general aspects of land-surface energy balance representation within acommon modeling framework that can be run from a simple energy balance formulation to a complexmosaic type structure. The BSI is an uncertainty estimation technique based on Bayes theorem,importance sampling, and very fast simulated annealing. The model forcing data and surface flux datawere collected at seven sites representing a wide range of climate and vegetation conditions. Foreach site, four experiments were performed with simple and complex CHASM formulations as well asrealistic and global parameter ranges. Twenty eight experiments were conducted and 50 000 parametersets were used for each run. The results show that the use of global and realistic ranges givessimilar simulations for both modes for most sites, but the global ranges tend to produce someunreasonable optimal parameter values. Comparison of simple and complex modes shows that the simplemode has more parameters with unreasonable optimal values. Use of parameter ranges and modelcomplexities have significant impacts on frequency distribution of parameters, marginal posteriorprobability density functions, and estimates of uncertainty of simulated sensible and latent heatfluxes. Comparison between model complexity and parameter ranges shows that the former has moresignificant impacts on parameter and uncertainty estimations. 展开更多
关键词 optimal parameters uncertainty estimation CHASM model bayesian stochasticinversion parameter ranges model complexities
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