Tunnel boring machines(TBMs)have been widely utilised in tunnel construction due to their high efficiency and reliability.Accurately predicting TBM performance can improve project time management,cost control,and risk...Tunnel boring machines(TBMs)have been widely utilised in tunnel construction due to their high efficiency and reliability.Accurately predicting TBM performance can improve project time management,cost control,and risk management.This study aims to use deep learning to develop real-time models for predicting the penetration rate(PR).The models are built using data from the Changsha metro project,and their performances are evaluated using unseen data from the Zhengzhou Metro project.In one-step forecast,the predicted penetration rate follows the trend of the measured penetration rate in both training and testing.The autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model is compared with the recurrent neural network(RNN)model.The results show that univariate models,which only consider historical penetration rate itself,perform better than multivariate models that take into account multiple geological and operational parameters(GEO and OP).Next,an RNN variant combining time series of penetration rate with the last-step geological and operational parameters is developed,and it performs better than other models.A sensitivity analysis shows that the penetration rate is the most important parameter,while other parameters have a smaller impact on time series forecasting.It is also found that smoothed data are easier to predict with high accuracy.Nevertheless,over-simplified data can lose real characteristics in time series.In conclusion,the RNN variant can accurately predict the next-step penetration rate,and data smoothing is crucial in time series forecasting.This study provides practical guidance for TBM performance forecasting in practical engineering.展开更多
For the assessment and management of regional to local air quality, an integrated environmental management information system was built within the multi national Eureka project 3266 Webair, http：//www.ess.co.at/WEBAI...For the assessment and management of regional to local air quality, an integrated environmental management information system was built within the multi national Eureka project 3266 Webair, http：//www.ess.co.at/WEBAIR. The system combines data bases and GIS and a range of coupled models and analytical tools that address a range of typical management problems and cover several levels of nesting from regional to city level and street canyons. The main functions are to support regulatory tasks, compliance monitoring, operational forecasting and reporting, impact assessment EIA （environmental impact assessment）, SEA （strategic environmental assessment） and public information within one consistent framework. A major objective is the improvement of air quality through emission control. The integrated model system together with its shared data bases provides a reliable, consistent basis for the non-linear techno-economic and multi-criteria optimization of emission control strategies （including greenhouse gases and energy efficiency）. A real-time expert system drives, supports and monitors the autonomous and interactive operations, and provides embedded QA/QC （quality assurance/quality control） functions for reliable operations and ease of use.展开更多
The solar cycle(SC),a phenomenon caused by the quasi-periodic regular activities in the Sun,occurs approximately every 11 years.Intense solar activity can disrupt the Earth’s ionosphere,affecting communication and na...The solar cycle(SC),a phenomenon caused by the quasi-periodic regular activities in the Sun,occurs approximately every 11 years.Intense solar activity can disrupt the Earth’s ionosphere,affecting communication and navigation systems.Consequently,accurately predicting the intensity of the SC holds great significance,but predicting the SC involves a long-term time series,and many existing time series forecasting methods have fallen short in terms of accuracy and efficiency.The Time-series Dense Encoder model is a deep learning solution tailored for long time series prediction.Based on a multi-layer perceptron structure,it outperforms the best previously existing models in accuracy,while being efficiently trainable on general datasets.We propose a method based on this model for SC forecasting.Using a trained model,we predict the test set from SC 19 to SC 25 with an average mean absolute percentage error of 32.02,root mean square error of 30.3,mean absolute error of 23.32,and R^(2)(coefficient of determination)of 0.76,outperforming other deep learning models in terms of accuracy and training efficiency on sunspot number datasets.Subsequently,we use it to predict the peaks of SC 25 and SC 26.For SC 25,the peak time has ended,but a stronger peak is predicted for SC 26,of 199.3,within a range of 170.8-221.9,projected to occur during April 2034.展开更多
As a fundamental component in computer vision,edges can be categorized into four types based on discontinuities in reflectance,illumination,surface normal,or depth.While deep CNNs have significantly advanced generic e...As a fundamental component in computer vision,edges can be categorized into four types based on discontinuities in reflectance,illumination,surface normal,or depth.While deep CNNs have significantly advanced generic edge detection,real-time multi-class semantic edge detection under resource constraints remains challenging.To address this,we propose a lightweight framework based on PiDiNet that enables fine-grained semantic edge detection.Our model simultaneously predicts background and four edge categories from full-resolution inputs,balancing accuracy and efficiency.Key contributions include:a multi-channel output structure expanding binary edge prediction to five classes,supported by a deep supervision mechanism;a dynamic class-balancing strategy combining adaptive weighting with physical priors to handle extreme class imbalance;and maintained architectural efficiency enabling real-time inference.Extensive evaluations on BSDS-RIND show our approach achieves accuracy competitive with state-of-the-art methods while operating in real time.展开更多
Accurate short-term electricity price forecasts are essential for market participants to optimize bidding strategies,hedge risk and plan generation schedules.By leveraging advanced data analytics and machine learning ...Accurate short-term electricity price forecasts are essential for market participants to optimize bidding strategies,hedge risk and plan generation schedules.By leveraging advanced data analytics and machine learning methods,accurate and reliable price forecasts can be achieved.This study forecasts day-ahead prices in Türkiye’s electricity market using eXtreme Gradient Boosting(XGBoost).We benchmark XGBoost against four alternatives—Support Vector Machines(SVM),Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM),Random Forest(RF),and Gradient Boosting(GBM)—using 8760 hourly observations from 2023 provided by Energy Exchange Istanbul(EXIST).All models were trained on an identical chronological 80/20 train–test split,with hyperparameters tuned via 5-fold cross-validation on the training set.XGBoost achieved the best performance(Mean Absolute Error(MAE)=144.8 TRY/MWh,Root Mean Square Error(RMSE)=201.8 TRY/MWh,coefficient of determination(R^(2))=0.923)while training in 94 s.To enhance interpretability and identify key drivers,we employed Shapley Additive Explanations(SHAP),which highlighted a strong association between higher prices and increased natural-gas-based generation.The results provide a clear performance benchmark and practical guidance for selecting forecasting approaches in day-ahead electricity markets.展开更多
With the rapid proliferation of electric vehicles,their charging loads pose new challenges to power grid stability and operational efficiency.To address this,this study employs a Monte Carlo simulation model to analyz...With the rapid proliferation of electric vehicles,their charging loads pose new challenges to power grid stability and operational efficiency.To address this,this study employs a Monte Carlo simulation model to analyze the charging load characteristics of six battery electric vehicle categories in Hebei Province,leveraging multi-source probabilistic distribution data under typical operational scenarios.The findings reveal that electric vehicle charging loads are primarily concentrated during midday and nighttime periods,with significant load fluctuations exerting substantial pressure on the grid.In response,this paper proposes strategic interventions including optimized charging infrastructure planning,time-of-use electricity pricing mechanisms,and smart charging technologies to balance grid loads.The results provide a theoretical foundation for electric vehicle load forecasting,smart grid dispatching,and vehicle-grid integration,thereby enhancing grid operational efficiency and sustainability.展开更多
Vehicle-induced response separation is a crucial issue in structural health monitoring(SHM).This paper proposes a block-wise sliding recursive wavelet transform algorithm to meet the real-time processing requirements ...Vehicle-induced response separation is a crucial issue in structural health monitoring(SHM).This paper proposes a block-wise sliding recursive wavelet transform algorithm to meet the real-time processing requirements of monitoring data.To extend the separation target from a fixed dataset to a continuously updating data stream,a block-wise sliding framework is first developed.This framework is further optimized considering the characteristics of real-time data streams,and its advantage in computational efficiency is theoretically demonstrated.During the decomposition and reconstruction processes,information from neighboring data blocks is fully utilized to reduce algorithmic complexity.In addition,a delay-setting strategy is introduced for each processing window to mitigate boundary effects,thereby balancing accuracy and efficiency.Simulated signal experiments are conducted to determine the optimal delay configuration and to verify the algorithm’s superior performance,achieving a lower Root Mean Square Error(RMSE)and only 0.0249 times the average computational time compared with the original algorithm.Furthermore,strain signals from the Lieshi River Bridge are employed to validate the method.The proposed algorithm successfully separates the static trend from vehicle-induced responses in real time across different sampling frequencies,demonstrating its effectiveness and applicability in real-time bridge monitoring.展开更多
Deep learning-based methods have become alternatives to traditional numerical weather prediction systems,offering faster computation and the ability to utilize large historical datasets.However,the application of deep...Deep learning-based methods have become alternatives to traditional numerical weather prediction systems,offering faster computation and the ability to utilize large historical datasets.However,the application of deep learning to medium-range regional weather forecasting with limited data remains a significant challenge.In this work,three key solutions are proposed:(1)motivated by the need to improve model performance in data-scarce regional forecasting scenarios,the authors innovatively apply semantic segmentation models,to better capture spatiotemporal features and improve prediction accuracy;(2)recognizing the challenge of overfitting and the inability of traditional noise-based data augmentation methods to effectively enhance model robustness,a novel learnable Gaussian noise mechanism is introduced that allows the model to adaptively optimize perturbations for different locations,ensuring more effective learning;and(3)to address the issue of error accumulation in autoregressive prediction,as well as the challenge of learning difficulty and the lack of intermediate data utilization in one-shot prediction,the authors propose a cascade prediction approach that effectively resolves these problems while significantly improving model forecasting performance.The method achieves a competitive result in The East China Regional AI Medium Range Weather Forecasting Competition.Ablation experiments further validate the effectiveness of each component,highlighting their contributions to enhancing prediction performance.展开更多
An innovative real-time monitoring method for surrounding rock damage based on microseismic time-lapse double-difference tomography is proposed for delayed dynamic damage identification and insufficient detection of a...An innovative real-time monitoring method for surrounding rock damage based on microseismic time-lapse double-difference tomography is proposed for delayed dynamic damage identification and insufficient detection of adverse geological conditions in deep-buried tunnel construction.The installation techniques for microseismic sensors were optimized by mounting sensors at bolt ends which significantly improves signal-to-noise ratio(SNR)and anti-interference capability compared to conventional borehole placement.Subsequently,a 3D wave velocity evolution model that incorporates construction-induced disturbances was established,enabling the first visualization of spatiotemporal variations in surrounding rock wave velocity.It finds significant wave velocity reduction near the tunnel face,with roof and floor damage zones extending 40–50 m;wave velocities approaching undisturbed levels at 15 m ahead of the working face and on the laterally undisturbed side;pronounced spatial asymmetry in wave velocity distribution—values on the left side exceed those on the right,with a clear stress concentration or transition zone located 10–15 m;and systematically lower velocities behind the face than in front,indicating asymmetric rock damage development.These results provide essential theoretical support and practical guidance for optimizing dynamic construction strategies,enabling real-time adjustment of support parameters,and establishing safety early warning systems in deep-buried tunnel engineering.展开更多
Online examinations have become a dominant assessment mode,increasing concerns over academic integrity.To address the critical challenge of detecting cheating behaviours,this study proposes a hybrid deep learning appr...Online examinations have become a dominant assessment mode,increasing concerns over academic integrity.To address the critical challenge of detecting cheating behaviours,this study proposes a hybrid deep learning approach that combines visual detection and temporal behaviour classification.The methodology utilises object detection models—You Only Look Once(YOLOv12),Faster Region-based Convolutional Neural Network(RCNN),and Single Shot Detector(SSD)MobileNet—integrated with classification models such as Convolutional Neural Networks(CNN),Bidirectional Gated Recurrent Unit(Bi-GRU),and CNN-LSTM(Long Short-Term Memory).Two distinct datasets were used:the Online Exam Proctoring(EOP)dataset from Michigan State University and the School of Computer Science,Duy Tan Unievrsity(SCS-DTU)dataset collected in a controlled classroom setting.A diverse set of cheating behaviours,including book usage,unauthorised interaction,internet access,and mobile phone use,was categorised.Comprehensive experiments evaluated the models based on accuracy,precision,recall,training time,inference speed,and memory usage.We evaluate nine detector-classifier pairings under a unified budget and score them via a calibrated harmonic mean of detection and classification accuracies,enabling deployment-oriented selection under latency and memory constraints.Macro-Precision/Recall/F1 and Receiver Operating Characteristic-Area Under the Curve(ROC-AUC)are reported for the top configurations,revealing consistent advantages of object-centric pipelines for fine-grained cheating cues.The highest overall score is achieved by YOLOv12+CNN(97.15%accuracy),while SSD-MobileNet+CNN provides the best speed-efficiency trade-off for edge devices.This research provides valuable insights into selecting and deploying appropriate deep learning models for maintaining exam integrity under varying resource constraints.展开更多
The highly dynamic nature,strong uncertainty,and coupled multiple safety constraints inherent in carrier aircraft recovery operations pose severe challenges for real-time decision-making.Addressing bolter scenarios,th...The highly dynamic nature,strong uncertainty,and coupled multiple safety constraints inherent in carrier aircraft recovery operations pose severe challenges for real-time decision-making.Addressing bolter scenarios,this study proposes an intelligent decision-making framework based on a deep long short-term memory Q-network.This framework transforms the real-time sequencing for bolter recovery problem into a partially observable Markov decision process.It employs a stacked long shortterm memory network to accurately capture the long-range temporal dependencies of bolter event chains and fuel consumption.Furthermore,it integrates a prioritized experience replay training mechanism to construct a safe and adaptive scheduling system capable of millisecond-level real-time decision-making.Experimental demonstrates that,within large-scale mass recovery scenarios,the framework achieves zero safety violations in static environments and maintains a fuel safety violation rate below 10%in dynamic scenarios,with single-step decision times at the millisecond level.The model exhibits strong generalization capability,effectively responding to unforeseen emergent situations—such as multiple bolters and fuel emergencies—without requiring retraining.This provides robust support for efficient carrier-based aircraft recovery operations.展开更多
Accurate and reliable flood forecast is crucial for efficient real-time river management, including flood control, flood warning, reservoir operation and river regulation. In order to improve the estimate of the initi...Accurate and reliable flood forecast is crucial for efficient real-time river management, including flood control, flood warning, reservoir operation and river regulation. In order to improve the estimate of the initial state of the forecasting system and to reduce the errors in the forecast period a data assimilation procedure was often need. The Kalman filter was proven to be an efficient method to adjust real-time flood series and improve the initial conditions before the forecast. A new model integrating the hydraulic model with the Kalman filter for real-time correction of flood forecast was developed and applied in the Three Gorges interzone of the Yangtze River. The method was calibrated and verified against the observed flood stage and discharge during Three Gorges Dam construction periods （2004）. The results demonstrate that the new model incorporates an accurate and fast updating technique can improve the reliability of the flood forecast.展开更多
This study introduces a real-time data-driven battery management scheme designed to address uncertainties in load and generation forecasts,which are integral to an optimal energy storage control system.By expanding on...This study introduces a real-time data-driven battery management scheme designed to address uncertainties in load and generation forecasts,which are integral to an optimal energy storage control system.By expanding on an existing algorithm,this study resolves issues discovered during implementation and addresses previously overlooked concerns,resulting in significant enhancements in both performance and reliability.The refined real-time control scheme is integrated with a day-ahead optimization engine and forecast model,which is utilized for illustrative simulations to highlight its potential efficacy on a real site.Furthermore,a comprehensive comparison with the original formulation was conducted to cover all possible scenarios.This analysis validated the operational effectiveness of the scheme and provided a detailed evaluation of the improvements and expected behavior of the control system.Incorrect or improper adjustments to mitigate forecast uncertainties can result in suboptimal energy management,significant financial losses and penalties,and potential contract violations.The revised algorithm optimizes the operation of the battery system in real time and safeguards its state of health by limiting the charging/discharging cycles and enforcing adherence to contractual agreements.These advancements yield a reliable and efficient real-time correction algorithm for optimal site management,designed as an independent white box that can be integrated with any day-ahead optimization control system.展开更多
A combination of the rainfall-runoff module of the Xin’anjiang model, the Muskingum routing method, the water stage simulating hydrologic method, the diffusion wave nonlinear water stage method, and the real-time err...A combination of the rainfall-runoff module of the Xin’anjiang model, the Muskingum routing method, the water stage simulating hydrologic method, the diffusion wave nonlinear water stage method, and the real-time error correction method is applied to the real-time flood forecasting and regulation of the Huai River with flood diversion and retarding areas. The Xin’anjiang model is used to forecast the flood discharge hydrograph of the upstream and tributary. The flood routing of the main channel and flood diversion areas is based on the Muskingum method. The water stage of the downstream boundary condition is calculated with the water stage simulating hydrologic method and the water stages of each cross section are calculated from downstream to upstream with the diffusion wave nonlinear water stage method. The input flood discharge hydrograph from the main channel to the flood diversion area is estimated with the fixed split ratio of the main channel discharge. The flood flow inside the flood retarding area is calculated as a reservoir with the water balance method. The faded-memory forgetting factor least square of error series is used as the real-time error correction method for forecasting discharge and water stage. As an example, the combined models were applied to flood forecasting and regulation of the upper reaches of the Huai River above Lutaizi during the 2007 flood season. The forecast achieves a high accuracy and the results show that the combined models provide a scientific way of flood forecasting and regulation for a complex watershed with flood diversion and retarding areas.展开更多
Traffic congestions and road accidents continue to increase in industry countries. There are three basic strategies to relieve congestion. The first strategy is to increase the transportation infrastructure. However, ...Traffic congestions and road accidents continue to increase in industry countries. There are three basic strategies to relieve congestion. The first strategy is to increase the transportation infrastructure. However, this strategy is very expensive and can only be accomplished in the long-term. The second strategy is to limit the traffic demand or make traveling more expensive that will be strongly opposed by travelers. The third strategy is to focus on efficient and intelligent utilization of the existing transportation infrastructures. This strategy is gaining more and more attention because it’s well. Currently, the Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) is the most promising approach to implementing the third strategy. Various forecast schemes have been proposed to manage the traffic data. Many studies showed that the moving average schemes offered meaningful results compared to different forecast schemes. This paper considered the moving average schemes, namely, simple moving average, weighted moving average, and exponential moving average. Furthermore, the performance analysis of the shortterm forecast schemes will be discussed. Moreover, the real-time forecast model will consider the abnormal condition detection.展开更多
Flood forecasting is critical for mitigating flood damage and ensuring a safe operation of hydroelectric power plants and reservoirs.This paper presents a new hybrid hydrological model based on the combination of the ...Flood forecasting is critical for mitigating flood damage and ensuring a safe operation of hydroelectric power plants and reservoirs.This paper presents a new hybrid hydrological model based on the combination of the Hydrologic Engineering Center-Hydrologic Modeling System(HEC-HMS)hydrological model and an Encoder-Decoder-Long Short-Term Memory network to enhance the accuracy of real-time flood forecasting.The proposed hybrid model has been applied to the Krong H'nang hydropower reservoir.The observed data from 33 floods monitored between 2016 and 2021 are used to calibrate,validate,and test the hybrid model.Results show that the HEC-HMS-artificial neural network hybrid model significantly improves the forecast quality,especially for results at a longer forecasting time.In detail,the Kling-Gupta efficiency(KGE)index,for example,increased from ΔKGE=16%at time t+1h to ΔKGE=69%at time t+6 h.Similar results were obtained for other indicators including peak error and volume error.The computer program developed for this study is being used in practice at the Krong H'nang hydropower to aid in reservoir planning,flood control,and water resource efficiency.展开更多
<strong>Introduction:</strong> More than a million people are reported to have been infected with COVID in India, since the beginning of the pandemic. However, the epidemic is not the same across the count...<strong>Introduction:</strong> More than a million people are reported to have been infected with COVID in India, since the beginning of the pandemic. However, the epidemic is not the same across the country. Though there are state-level variations rapidly changing disease dynamics and the response has created uncertainty towards appropriate use of models to project for the future. <strong>Method:</strong> This paper aims at using a validated semi-mechanistic stochastic model to generate short term forecasts. This analysis used data available at the respective state government bulletins for four states. The analysis used a simplified transmission model using Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation with Metropolis-Hastings updating. <strong>Results:</strong> Two weeks were used to compare the results with the actual data. The forecasted results are well within the 25<sup>th</sup> and 75<sup>th</sup> percentile of the actual cases reported by the respective states. The results indicate a reliable method for a real-time short term forecasting of COVID-19 cases. The 1st week projected interquartile range and actual;reported cases for the state of Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Odisha were (1064 - 2532) 2234, (17,503 - 50,125) 27,214, (5225 - 11,003) 9563, (2559 - 4461) 3925, respectively. Similarly, the 2<sup>nd</sup> week projected interquartile range and actual;reported cases were (1055 - 7803) 4221, (18,298 - 73,952) 31,488, (4705 - 23,224) 13,357, (2701 - 9037) 4175 respectively. <strong>Conclusion:</strong> This real-time forecast can be used as an early warning tool for projecting the changes in the epidemic in the near future triggering proactive management steps.展开更多
Real-time electricity price(RTEP)influence factor extraction is essential to forecasting accurate power system electricity prices.At present,new electricity price forecasting models have been studied to improve predic...Real-time electricity price(RTEP)influence factor extraction is essential to forecasting accurate power system electricity prices.At present,new electricity price forecasting models have been studied to improve predictive accuracy,ignoring the extraction and analysis of RTEP influence factors.In this study,a correlation analysis method is proposed based on stochastic matrix theory.Firstly,an augmented matrix is formulated,including RTEP influence factor data and RTEP state data.Secondly,data correlation analysis results are obtained given the statistical characteristics of source data based on stochastic matrix theory.Mean spectral radius(MSR)is used as the measure of correlativity.Finally,the proposed method is evaluated in New England electricity markets and compared with the BP neural network forecasting method.Experimental results show that the extracted index system comprehensively generalizes RTEP influence factors,which play a significant role in improving RTEP forecasting accuracy.展开更多
Today,urban traffic,growing populations,and dense transportation networks are contributing to an increase in traffic incidents.These incidents include traffic accidents,vehicle breakdowns,fires,and traffic disputes,re...Today,urban traffic,growing populations,and dense transportation networks are contributing to an increase in traffic incidents.These incidents include traffic accidents,vehicle breakdowns,fires,and traffic disputes,resulting in long waiting times,high carbon emissions,and other undesirable situations.It is vital to estimate incident response times quickly and accurately after traffic incidents occur for the success of incident-related planning and response activities.This study presents a model for forecasting the traffic incident duration of traffic events with high precision.The proposed model goes through a 4-stage process using various features to predict the duration of four different traffic events and presents a feature reduction approach to enable real-time data collection and prediction.In the first stage,the dataset consisting of 24,431 data points and 75 variables is prepared by data collection,merging,missing data processing and data cleaning.In the second stage,models such as Decision Trees(DT),K-Nearest Neighbour(KNN),Random Forest(RF)and Support Vector Machines(SVM)are used and hyperparameter optimisation is performed with GridSearchCV.In the third stage,feature selection and reduction are performed and real-time data are used.In the last stage,model performance with 14 variables is evaluated with metrics such as accuracy,precision,recall,F1-score,MCC,confusion matrix and SHAP.The RF model outperforms other models with an accuracy of 98.5%.The study’s prediction results demonstrate that the proposed dynamic prediction model can achieve a high level of success.展开更多
Using real-time correction technology for typhoons, this paper discusses real-time correction for forecasting the track of four typhoons during 2009 and 2010 in Japan, Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shanghai. It was determin...Using real-time correction technology for typhoons, this paper discusses real-time correction for forecasting the track of four typhoons during 2009 and 2010 in Japan, Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shanghai. It was determined that the short-time forecast effect was better than the original objective mode. By selecting four types of integration schemes after multiple mode path integration for those four objective modes, the forecast effect of the multi-mode path integration is better, on average, than any single model. Moreover, multi-mode ensemble forecasting has obvious advantages during the initial 36 h.展开更多
文摘Tunnel boring machines(TBMs)have been widely utilised in tunnel construction due to their high efficiency and reliability.Accurately predicting TBM performance can improve project time management,cost control,and risk management.This study aims to use deep learning to develop real-time models for predicting the penetration rate(PR).The models are built using data from the Changsha metro project,and their performances are evaluated using unseen data from the Zhengzhou Metro project.In one-step forecast,the predicted penetration rate follows the trend of the measured penetration rate in both training and testing.The autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model is compared with the recurrent neural network(RNN)model.The results show that univariate models,which only consider historical penetration rate itself,perform better than multivariate models that take into account multiple geological and operational parameters(GEO and OP).Next,an RNN variant combining time series of penetration rate with the last-step geological and operational parameters is developed,and it performs better than other models.A sensitivity analysis shows that the penetration rate is the most important parameter,while other parameters have a smaller impact on time series forecasting.It is also found that smoothed data are easier to predict with high accuracy.Nevertheless,over-simplified data can lose real characteristics in time series.In conclusion,the RNN variant can accurately predict the next-step penetration rate,and data smoothing is crucial in time series forecasting.This study provides practical guidance for TBM performance forecasting in practical engineering.
文摘For the assessment and management of regional to local air quality, an integrated environmental management information system was built within the multi national Eureka project 3266 Webair, http：//www.ess.co.at/WEBAIR. The system combines data bases and GIS and a range of coupled models and analytical tools that address a range of typical management problems and cover several levels of nesting from regional to city level and street canyons. The main functions are to support regulatory tasks, compliance monitoring, operational forecasting and reporting, impact assessment EIA （environmental impact assessment）, SEA （strategic environmental assessment） and public information within one consistent framework. A major objective is the improvement of air quality through emission control. The integrated model system together with its shared data bases provides a reliable, consistent basis for the non-linear techno-economic and multi-criteria optimization of emission control strategies （including greenhouse gases and energy efficiency）. A real-time expert system drives, supports and monitors the autonomous and interactive operations, and provides embedded QA/QC （quality assurance/quality control） functions for reliable operations and ease of use.
基金supported by the Academic Research Projects of Beijing Union University(ZK20202204)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(12250005,12073040,12273059,11973056,12003051,11573037,12073041,11427901,11572005,11611530679 and 12473052)+1 种基金the Strategic Priority Research Program of the China Academy of Sciences(XDB0560000,XDA15052200,XDB09040200,XDA15010700,XDB0560301,and XDA15320102)the Chinese Meridian Project(CMP).
文摘The solar cycle(SC),a phenomenon caused by the quasi-periodic regular activities in the Sun,occurs approximately every 11 years.Intense solar activity can disrupt the Earth’s ionosphere,affecting communication and navigation systems.Consequently,accurately predicting the intensity of the SC holds great significance,but predicting the SC involves a long-term time series,and many existing time series forecasting methods have fallen short in terms of accuracy and efficiency.The Time-series Dense Encoder model is a deep learning solution tailored for long time series prediction.Based on a multi-layer perceptron structure,it outperforms the best previously existing models in accuracy,while being efficiently trainable on general datasets.We propose a method based on this model for SC forecasting.Using a trained model,we predict the test set from SC 19 to SC 25 with an average mean absolute percentage error of 32.02,root mean square error of 30.3,mean absolute error of 23.32,and R^(2)(coefficient of determination)of 0.76,outperforming other deep learning models in terms of accuracy and training efficiency on sunspot number datasets.Subsequently,we use it to predict the peaks of SC 25 and SC 26.For SC 25,the peak time has ended,but a stronger peak is predicted for SC 26,of 199.3,within a range of 170.8-221.9,projected to occur during April 2034.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China 62402171.
文摘As a fundamental component in computer vision,edges can be categorized into four types based on discontinuities in reflectance,illumination,surface normal,or depth.While deep CNNs have significantly advanced generic edge detection,real-time multi-class semantic edge detection under resource constraints remains challenging.To address this,we propose a lightweight framework based on PiDiNet that enables fine-grained semantic edge detection.Our model simultaneously predicts background and four edge categories from full-resolution inputs,balancing accuracy and efficiency.Key contributions include:a multi-channel output structure expanding binary edge prediction to five classes,supported by a deep supervision mechanism;a dynamic class-balancing strategy combining adaptive weighting with physical priors to handle extreme class imbalance;and maintained architectural efficiency enabling real-time inference.Extensive evaluations on BSDS-RIND show our approach achieves accuracy competitive with state-of-the-art methods while operating in real time.
文摘Accurate short-term electricity price forecasts are essential for market participants to optimize bidding strategies,hedge risk and plan generation schedules.By leveraging advanced data analytics and machine learning methods,accurate and reliable price forecasts can be achieved.This study forecasts day-ahead prices in Türkiye’s electricity market using eXtreme Gradient Boosting(XGBoost).We benchmark XGBoost against four alternatives—Support Vector Machines(SVM),Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM),Random Forest(RF),and Gradient Boosting(GBM)—using 8760 hourly observations from 2023 provided by Energy Exchange Istanbul(EXIST).All models were trained on an identical chronological 80/20 train–test split,with hyperparameters tuned via 5-fold cross-validation on the training set.XGBoost achieved the best performance(Mean Absolute Error(MAE)=144.8 TRY/MWh,Root Mean Square Error(RMSE)=201.8 TRY/MWh,coefficient of determination(R^(2))=0.923)while training in 94 s.To enhance interpretability and identify key drivers,we employed Shapley Additive Explanations(SHAP),which highlighted a strong association between higher prices and increased natural-gas-based generation.The results provide a clear performance benchmark and practical guidance for selecting forecasting approaches in day-ahead electricity markets.
基金funded by Humanities and Social Sciences of Ministry of Education Planning Fund of China,grant number 21YJA790009National Natural Science Foundation of China,grant number 72140001.
文摘With the rapid proliferation of electric vehicles,their charging loads pose new challenges to power grid stability and operational efficiency.To address this,this study employs a Monte Carlo simulation model to analyze the charging load characteristics of six battery electric vehicle categories in Hebei Province,leveraging multi-source probabilistic distribution data under typical operational scenarios.The findings reveal that electric vehicle charging loads are primarily concentrated during midday and nighttime periods,with significant load fluctuations exerting substantial pressure on the grid.In response,this paper proposes strategic interventions including optimized charging infrastructure planning,time-of-use electricity pricing mechanisms,and smart charging technologies to balance grid loads.The results provide a theoretical foundation for electric vehicle load forecasting,smart grid dispatching,and vehicle-grid integration,thereby enhancing grid operational efficiency and sustainability.
基金the support of the Major Science and Technology Project of Yunnan Province,China(Grant No.202502AD080007)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.52378288)。
文摘Vehicle-induced response separation is a crucial issue in structural health monitoring(SHM).This paper proposes a block-wise sliding recursive wavelet transform algorithm to meet the real-time processing requirements of monitoring data.To extend the separation target from a fixed dataset to a continuously updating data stream,a block-wise sliding framework is first developed.This framework is further optimized considering the characteristics of real-time data streams,and its advantage in computational efficiency is theoretically demonstrated.During the decomposition and reconstruction processes,information from neighboring data blocks is fully utilized to reduce algorithmic complexity.In addition,a delay-setting strategy is introduced for each processing window to mitigate boundary effects,thereby balancing accuracy and efficiency.Simulated signal experiments are conducted to determine the optimal delay configuration and to verify the algorithm’s superior performance,achieving a lower Root Mean Square Error(RMSE)and only 0.0249 times the average computational time compared with the original algorithm.Furthermore,strain signals from the Lieshi River Bridge are employed to validate the method.The proposed algorithm successfully separates the static trend from vehicle-induced responses in real time across different sampling frequencies,demonstrating its effectiveness and applicability in real-time bridge monitoring.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 62376217]the Young Elite Scientists Sponsorship Program by CAST[grant number 2023QNRC001]the Joint Research Project for Meteorological Capacity Improvement[grant number 24NLTSZ003]。
文摘Deep learning-based methods have become alternatives to traditional numerical weather prediction systems,offering faster computation and the ability to utilize large historical datasets.However,the application of deep learning to medium-range regional weather forecasting with limited data remains a significant challenge.In this work,three key solutions are proposed:(1)motivated by the need to improve model performance in data-scarce regional forecasting scenarios,the authors innovatively apply semantic segmentation models,to better capture spatiotemporal features and improve prediction accuracy;(2)recognizing the challenge of overfitting and the inability of traditional noise-based data augmentation methods to effectively enhance model robustness,a novel learnable Gaussian noise mechanism is introduced that allows the model to adaptively optimize perturbations for different locations,ensuring more effective learning;and(3)to address the issue of error accumulation in autoregressive prediction,as well as the challenge of learning difficulty and the lack of intermediate data utilization in one-shot prediction,the authors propose a cascade prediction approach that effectively resolves these problems while significantly improving model forecasting performance.The method achieves a competitive result in The East China Regional AI Medium Range Weather Forecasting Competition.Ablation experiments further validate the effectiveness of each component,highlighting their contributions to enhancing prediction performance.
基金support of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52274176)the Guangdong Province Key Areas R&D Program(No.2022B0101070001)+5 种基金Chongqing Elite Innovation and Entrepreneurship Leading talent Project(No.CQYC20220302517)the Chongqing Natural Science Foundation Innovation and Development Joint Fund(No.CSTB2022NSCQ-LZX0079)the National Key Research and Development Program Young Scientists Project(No.2022YFC2905700)the Chongqing Municipal Education Commission“Shuangcheng Economic Circle Construction in Chengdu-Chongqing Area”Science and Technology Innovation Project(No.KJCX2020031)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(No.2024CDJGF-009)the Key Project for Technological Innovation and Application Development in Chongqing(No.CSTB2025TIAD-KPX0029).
文摘An innovative real-time monitoring method for surrounding rock damage based on microseismic time-lapse double-difference tomography is proposed for delayed dynamic damage identification and insufficient detection of adverse geological conditions in deep-buried tunnel construction.The installation techniques for microseismic sensors were optimized by mounting sensors at bolt ends which significantly improves signal-to-noise ratio(SNR)and anti-interference capability compared to conventional borehole placement.Subsequently,a 3D wave velocity evolution model that incorporates construction-induced disturbances was established,enabling the first visualization of spatiotemporal variations in surrounding rock wave velocity.It finds significant wave velocity reduction near the tunnel face,with roof and floor damage zones extending 40–50 m;wave velocities approaching undisturbed levels at 15 m ahead of the working face and on the laterally undisturbed side;pronounced spatial asymmetry in wave velocity distribution—values on the left side exceed those on the right,with a clear stress concentration or transition zone located 10–15 m;and systematically lower velocities behind the face than in front,indicating asymmetric rock damage development.These results provide essential theoretical support and practical guidance for optimizing dynamic construction strategies,enabling real-time adjustment of support parameters,and establishing safety early warning systems in deep-buried tunnel engineering.
文摘Online examinations have become a dominant assessment mode,increasing concerns over academic integrity.To address the critical challenge of detecting cheating behaviours,this study proposes a hybrid deep learning approach that combines visual detection and temporal behaviour classification.The methodology utilises object detection models—You Only Look Once(YOLOv12),Faster Region-based Convolutional Neural Network(RCNN),and Single Shot Detector(SSD)MobileNet—integrated with classification models such as Convolutional Neural Networks(CNN),Bidirectional Gated Recurrent Unit(Bi-GRU),and CNN-LSTM(Long Short-Term Memory).Two distinct datasets were used:the Online Exam Proctoring(EOP)dataset from Michigan State University and the School of Computer Science,Duy Tan Unievrsity(SCS-DTU)dataset collected in a controlled classroom setting.A diverse set of cheating behaviours,including book usage,unauthorised interaction,internet access,and mobile phone use,was categorised.Comprehensive experiments evaluated the models based on accuracy,precision,recall,training time,inference speed,and memory usage.We evaluate nine detector-classifier pairings under a unified budget and score them via a calibrated harmonic mean of detection and classification accuracies,enabling deployment-oriented selection under latency and memory constraints.Macro-Precision/Recall/F1 and Receiver Operating Characteristic-Area Under the Curve(ROC-AUC)are reported for the top configurations,revealing consistent advantages of object-centric pipelines for fine-grained cheating cues.The highest overall score is achieved by YOLOv12+CNN(97.15%accuracy),while SSD-MobileNet+CNN provides the best speed-efficiency trade-off for edge devices.This research provides valuable insights into selecting and deploying appropriate deep learning models for maintaining exam integrity under varying resource constraints.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.62403486)。
文摘The highly dynamic nature,strong uncertainty,and coupled multiple safety constraints inherent in carrier aircraft recovery operations pose severe challenges for real-time decision-making.Addressing bolter scenarios,this study proposes an intelligent decision-making framework based on a deep long short-term memory Q-network.This framework transforms the real-time sequencing for bolter recovery problem into a partially observable Markov decision process.It employs a stacked long shortterm memory network to accurately capture the long-range temporal dependencies of bolter event chains and fuel consumption.Furthermore,it integrates a prioritized experience replay training mechanism to construct a safe and adaptive scheduling system capable of millisecond-level real-time decision-making.Experimental demonstrates that,within large-scale mass recovery scenarios,the framework achieves zero safety violations in static environments and maintains a fuel safety violation rate below 10%in dynamic scenarios,with single-step decision times at the millisecond level.The model exhibits strong generalization capability,effectively responding to unforeseen emergent situations—such as multiple bolters and fuel emergencies—without requiring retraining.This provides robust support for efficient carrier-based aircraft recovery operations.
基金the National Science and Technology Planning (Grant No. 2006BAC05B02)
文摘Accurate and reliable flood forecast is crucial for efficient real-time river management, including flood control, flood warning, reservoir operation and river regulation. In order to improve the estimate of the initial state of the forecasting system and to reduce the errors in the forecast period a data assimilation procedure was often need. The Kalman filter was proven to be an efficient method to adjust real-time flood series and improve the initial conditions before the forecast. A new model integrating the hydraulic model with the Kalman filter for real-time correction of flood forecast was developed and applied in the Three Gorges interzone of the Yangtze River. The method was calibrated and verified against the observed flood stage and discharge during Three Gorges Dam construction periods （2004）. The results demonstrate that the new model incorporates an accurate and fast updating technique can improve the reliability of the flood forecast.
基金supported by the Israeli Ministry of Infrastructure,Energy and Water Resources.
文摘This study introduces a real-time data-driven battery management scheme designed to address uncertainties in load and generation forecasts,which are integral to an optimal energy storage control system.By expanding on an existing algorithm,this study resolves issues discovered during implementation and addresses previously overlooked concerns,resulting in significant enhancements in both performance and reliability.The refined real-time control scheme is integrated with a day-ahead optimization engine and forecast model,which is utilized for illustrative simulations to highlight its potential efficacy on a real site.Furthermore,a comprehensive comparison with the original formulation was conducted to cover all possible scenarios.This analysis validated the operational effectiveness of the scheme and provided a detailed evaluation of the improvements and expected behavior of the control system.Incorrect or improper adjustments to mitigate forecast uncertainties can result in suboptimal energy management,significant financial losses and penalties,and potential contract violations.The revised algorithm optimizes the operation of the battery system in real time and safeguards its state of health by limiting the charging/discharging cycles and enforcing adherence to contractual agreements.These advancements yield a reliable and efficient real-time correction algorithm for optimal site management,designed as an independent white box that can be integrated with any day-ahead optimization control system.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No 50479017)the Program for Changjiang Scholars and Innovative Research Teams in Universities (Grant No IRT071)
文摘A combination of the rainfall-runoff module of the Xin’anjiang model, the Muskingum routing method, the water stage simulating hydrologic method, the diffusion wave nonlinear water stage method, and the real-time error correction method is applied to the real-time flood forecasting and regulation of the Huai River with flood diversion and retarding areas. The Xin’anjiang model is used to forecast the flood discharge hydrograph of the upstream and tributary. The flood routing of the main channel and flood diversion areas is based on the Muskingum method. The water stage of the downstream boundary condition is calculated with the water stage simulating hydrologic method and the water stages of each cross section are calculated from downstream to upstream with the diffusion wave nonlinear water stage method. The input flood discharge hydrograph from the main channel to the flood diversion area is estimated with the fixed split ratio of the main channel discharge. The flood flow inside the flood retarding area is calculated as a reservoir with the water balance method. The faded-memory forgetting factor least square of error series is used as the real-time error correction method for forecasting discharge and water stage. As an example, the combined models were applied to flood forecasting and regulation of the upper reaches of the Huai River above Lutaizi during the 2007 flood season. The forecast achieves a high accuracy and the results show that the combined models provide a scientific way of flood forecasting and regulation for a complex watershed with flood diversion and retarding areas.
文摘Traffic congestions and road accidents continue to increase in industry countries. There are three basic strategies to relieve congestion. The first strategy is to increase the transportation infrastructure. However, this strategy is very expensive and can only be accomplished in the long-term. The second strategy is to limit the traffic demand or make traveling more expensive that will be strongly opposed by travelers. The third strategy is to focus on efficient and intelligent utilization of the existing transportation infrastructures. This strategy is gaining more and more attention because it’s well. Currently, the Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) is the most promising approach to implementing the third strategy. Various forecast schemes have been proposed to manage the traffic data. Many studies showed that the moving average schemes offered meaningful results compared to different forecast schemes. This paper considered the moving average schemes, namely, simple moving average, weighted moving average, and exponential moving average. Furthermore, the performance analysis of the shortterm forecast schemes will be discussed. Moreover, the real-time forecast model will consider the abnormal condition detection.
基金Vingroup JSCMaster,PhD Scholarship Program of Vingroup Innovation Foundation,Grant/Award Number:VINIF.2021.ThS.97。
文摘Flood forecasting is critical for mitigating flood damage and ensuring a safe operation of hydroelectric power plants and reservoirs.This paper presents a new hybrid hydrological model based on the combination of the Hydrologic Engineering Center-Hydrologic Modeling System(HEC-HMS)hydrological model and an Encoder-Decoder-Long Short-Term Memory network to enhance the accuracy of real-time flood forecasting.The proposed hybrid model has been applied to the Krong H'nang hydropower reservoir.The observed data from 33 floods monitored between 2016 and 2021 are used to calibrate,validate,and test the hybrid model.Results show that the HEC-HMS-artificial neural network hybrid model significantly improves the forecast quality,especially for results at a longer forecasting time.In detail,the Kling-Gupta efficiency(KGE)index,for example,increased from ΔKGE=16%at time t+1h to ΔKGE=69%at time t+6 h.Similar results were obtained for other indicators including peak error and volume error.The computer program developed for this study is being used in practice at the Krong H'nang hydropower to aid in reservoir planning,flood control,and water resource efficiency.
文摘<strong>Introduction:</strong> More than a million people are reported to have been infected with COVID in India, since the beginning of the pandemic. However, the epidemic is not the same across the country. Though there are state-level variations rapidly changing disease dynamics and the response has created uncertainty towards appropriate use of models to project for the future. <strong>Method:</strong> This paper aims at using a validated semi-mechanistic stochastic model to generate short term forecasts. This analysis used data available at the respective state government bulletins for four states. The analysis used a simplified transmission model using Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation with Metropolis-Hastings updating. <strong>Results:</strong> Two weeks were used to compare the results with the actual data. The forecasted results are well within the 25<sup>th</sup> and 75<sup>th</sup> percentile of the actual cases reported by the respective states. The results indicate a reliable method for a real-time short term forecasting of COVID-19 cases. The 1st week projected interquartile range and actual;reported cases for the state of Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Odisha were (1064 - 2532) 2234, (17,503 - 50,125) 27,214, (5225 - 11,003) 9563, (2559 - 4461) 3925, respectively. Similarly, the 2<sup>nd</sup> week projected interquartile range and actual;reported cases were (1055 - 7803) 4221, (18,298 - 73,952) 31,488, (4705 - 23,224) 13,357, (2701 - 9037) 4175 respectively. <strong>Conclusion:</strong> This real-time forecast can be used as an early warning tool for projecting the changes in the epidemic in the near future triggering proactive management steps.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.61701104)the “13th Five Year Plan” Research Foundation of Jilin Provincial Department of Education,China(No.JJKH2017018KJ)
文摘Real-time electricity price(RTEP)influence factor extraction is essential to forecasting accurate power system electricity prices.At present,new electricity price forecasting models have been studied to improve predictive accuracy,ignoring the extraction and analysis of RTEP influence factors.In this study,a correlation analysis method is proposed based on stochastic matrix theory.Firstly,an augmented matrix is formulated,including RTEP influence factor data and RTEP state data.Secondly,data correlation analysis results are obtained given the statistical characteristics of source data based on stochastic matrix theory.Mean spectral radius(MSR)is used as the measure of correlativity.Finally,the proposed method is evaluated in New England electricity markets and compared with the BP neural network forecasting method.Experimental results show that the extracted index system comprehensively generalizes RTEP influence factors,which play a significant role in improving RTEP forecasting accuracy.
文摘Today,urban traffic,growing populations,and dense transportation networks are contributing to an increase in traffic incidents.These incidents include traffic accidents,vehicle breakdowns,fires,and traffic disputes,resulting in long waiting times,high carbon emissions,and other undesirable situations.It is vital to estimate incident response times quickly and accurately after traffic incidents occur for the success of incident-related planning and response activities.This study presents a model for forecasting the traffic incident duration of traffic events with high precision.The proposed model goes through a 4-stage process using various features to predict the duration of four different traffic events and presents a feature reduction approach to enable real-time data collection and prediction.In the first stage,the dataset consisting of 24,431 data points and 75 variables is prepared by data collection,merging,missing data processing and data cleaning.In the second stage,models such as Decision Trees(DT),K-Nearest Neighbour(KNN),Random Forest(RF)and Support Vector Machines(SVM)are used and hyperparameter optimisation is performed with GridSearchCV.In the third stage,feature selection and reduction are performed and real-time data are used.In the last stage,model performance with 14 variables is evaluated with metrics such as accuracy,precision,recall,F1-score,MCC,confusion matrix and SHAP.The RF model outperforms other models with an accuracy of 98.5%.The study’s prediction results demonstrate that the proposed dynamic prediction model can achieve a high level of success.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(41475060,41275067,41405060)
文摘Using real-time correction technology for typhoons, this paper discusses real-time correction for forecasting the track of four typhoons during 2009 and 2010 in Japan, Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shanghai. It was determined that the short-time forecast effect was better than the original objective mode. By selecting four types of integration schemes after multiple mode path integration for those four objective modes, the forecast effect of the multi-mode path integration is better, on average, than any single model. Moreover, multi-mode ensemble forecasting has obvious advantages during the initial 36 h.
