The Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO)is a key atmospheric component connecting global weather and climate.It func-tions as a primary source for subseasonal forecasts.Previous studies have highlighted the vital impact of ...The Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO)is a key atmospheric component connecting global weather and climate.It func-tions as a primary source for subseasonal forecasts.Previous studies have highlighted the vital impact of oceanic processes on MJO propagation.However,few existing MJO prediction approaches adequately consider these factors.This study determines the critical region for the oceanic processes affecting MJO propagation by utilizing 22-year Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data.By intro-ducing surface and subsurface oceanic temperature within this critical region into a lagged multiple linear regression model,the MJO forecasting skill is considerably optimized.This optimization leads to a 12 h enhancement in the forecasting skill of the first principal component and efficiently decreases prediction errors for the total predictions.Further analysis suggests that,during the years in which MJO events propagate across the Maritime Continent over a more southerly path,the optimized statistical forecasting model obtains better improvements in MJO prediction.展开更多
国土空间是一切经济社会活动的载体,探究其生态效率时空演化特征及影响因素对国土资源可持续利用和区域经济社会高质量发展具有重要意义。基于三区空间视角和多源数据构建国土空间利用生态效率(Territory Use Eco-efficiency, TUEE)测...国土空间是一切经济社会活动的载体,探究其生态效率时空演化特征及影响因素对国土资源可持续利用和区域经济社会高质量发展具有重要意义。基于三区空间视角和多源数据构建国土空间利用生态效率(Territory Use Eco-efficiency, TUEE)测度体系,综合非期望产出Super-SBM模型、空间自相关分析和多尺度地理加权回归(MGWR)定量分析2000~2020年江苏省53个县域单元的TUEE水平、时空差异及驱动因素。结果表明:(1)江苏省TUEE水平呈现逐步提升趋势,城镇空间、生态空间生态效率稳步提升,农业空间生态效率先降低后升高;(2)江苏省TUEE从高水平县域零星分布逐步转为南高北低格局,沿海县域TUEE相较于内陆县域具备一定优势。研究期内,其存在显著空间正相关关系且不断增强,高高集聚分布在苏南县域,低低集聚分布在苏北县域;(3)江苏省TUEE影响因素存在空间异质性,气温、对外开放水平对其有显著促进作用,高程因素对其有显著抑制作用,人口密度和经济发展水平对其有促进作用但不显著。据此,应通过加强县域间联系、因地制宜开展国土空间利用活动、优化产业结构和政府投入等方式,提升江苏省国土空间利用整体生态水平。展开更多
基金supported by the National Key Program for Developing Basic Science(Nos.2022YFF0801702 and 2022YFE0106600)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.42175060 and 42175021)the Jiangsu Province Science Foundation(No.BK20250200302).
文摘The Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO)is a key atmospheric component connecting global weather and climate.It func-tions as a primary source for subseasonal forecasts.Previous studies have highlighted the vital impact of oceanic processes on MJO propagation.However,few existing MJO prediction approaches adequately consider these factors.This study determines the critical region for the oceanic processes affecting MJO propagation by utilizing 22-year Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data.By intro-ducing surface and subsurface oceanic temperature within this critical region into a lagged multiple linear regression model,the MJO forecasting skill is considerably optimized.This optimization leads to a 12 h enhancement in the forecasting skill of the first principal component and efficiently decreases prediction errors for the total predictions.Further analysis suggests that,during the years in which MJO events propagate across the Maritime Continent over a more southerly path,the optimized statistical forecasting model obtains better improvements in MJO prediction.
文摘国土空间是一切经济社会活动的载体,探究其生态效率时空演化特征及影响因素对国土资源可持续利用和区域经济社会高质量发展具有重要意义。基于三区空间视角和多源数据构建国土空间利用生态效率(Territory Use Eco-efficiency, TUEE)测度体系,综合非期望产出Super-SBM模型、空间自相关分析和多尺度地理加权回归(MGWR)定量分析2000~2020年江苏省53个县域单元的TUEE水平、时空差异及驱动因素。结果表明:(1)江苏省TUEE水平呈现逐步提升趋势,城镇空间、生态空间生态效率稳步提升,农业空间生态效率先降低后升高;(2)江苏省TUEE从高水平县域零星分布逐步转为南高北低格局,沿海县域TUEE相较于内陆县域具备一定优势。研究期内,其存在显著空间正相关关系且不断增强,高高集聚分布在苏南县域,低低集聚分布在苏北县域;(3)江苏省TUEE影响因素存在空间异质性,气温、对外开放水平对其有显著促进作用,高程因素对其有显著抑制作用,人口密度和经济发展水平对其有促进作用但不显著。据此,应通过加强县域间联系、因地制宜开展国土空间利用活动、优化产业结构和政府投入等方式,提升江苏省国土空间利用整体生态水平。
