The analysis and design of offshore structures necessitates the consideration of wave loads. Realistic modeling of wave loads is particularly important to ensure reliable performance of these structures. Among the ava...The analysis and design of offshore structures necessitates the consideration of wave loads. Realistic modeling of wave loads is particularly important to ensure reliable performance of these structures. Among the available methods for the modeling of the extreme significant wave height on a statistical basis, the peak over threshold method has attracted most attention. This method employs Poisson process to character- ize time-varying properties in the parameters of an extreme value distribution. In this paper, the peak over threshold method is reviewed and extended to account for subjectivity in the modeling. The freedom in selecting the threshold and the time span to separate extremes from the original time series data is incorpo- rated as imprecision in the model. This leads to an extension from random variables to random sets in the probabilistic model for the extreme significant wave height. The extended model is also applied to different periods of the sampled data to evaluate the significance of the climatic conditions on the uncertainties of the parameters.展开更多
针对电力系统中故障特征和运行信息的不确定性,提出了基于随机集理论的不确定信息的表示与建模方法。该方法考虑元件故障发生的不确定性和负荷波动的随机性,将描述电网元件参数和节点负荷信息的变量转换为其随机集形式。基于随机集扩展...针对电力系统中故障特征和运行信息的不确定性,提出了基于随机集理论的不确定信息的表示与建模方法。该方法考虑元件故障发生的不确定性和负荷波动的随机性,将描述电网元件参数和节点负荷信息的变量转换为其随机集形式。基于随机集扩展准则,通过区间潮流计算将参数的不确定性映射到风险指标的不确定性,并利用随机集的信任测度和似真测度构造风险指标的上下累积概率分布函数。基于证据理论的随机集描述,利用Dempster-Shafer证据组合规则对所有系统状态下获得的基本概率分配(basic probability assignment,BPA)进行融合,获得系统风险水平的一致性描述。IEEE 39算例系统的计算结果证明了该方法的合理性。展开更多
基金The Singapore Ministry of Education AcRF Project under contract NTU ref:RF20/10
文摘The analysis and design of offshore structures necessitates the consideration of wave loads. Realistic modeling of wave loads is particularly important to ensure reliable performance of these structures. Among the available methods for the modeling of the extreme significant wave height on a statistical basis, the peak over threshold method has attracted most attention. This method employs Poisson process to character- ize time-varying properties in the parameters of an extreme value distribution. In this paper, the peak over threshold method is reviewed and extended to account for subjectivity in the modeling. The freedom in selecting the threshold and the time span to separate extremes from the original time series data is incorpo- rated as imprecision in the model. This leads to an extension from random variables to random sets in the probabilistic model for the extreme significant wave height. The extended model is also applied to different periods of the sampled data to evaluate the significance of the climatic conditions on the uncertainties of the parameters.
文摘针对电力系统中故障特征和运行信息的不确定性,提出了基于随机集理论的不确定信息的表示与建模方法。该方法考虑元件故障发生的不确定性和负荷波动的随机性,将描述电网元件参数和节点负荷信息的变量转换为其随机集形式。基于随机集扩展准则,通过区间潮流计算将参数的不确定性映射到风险指标的不确定性,并利用随机集的信任测度和似真测度构造风险指标的上下累积概率分布函数。基于证据理论的随机集描述,利用Dempster-Shafer证据组合规则对所有系统状态下获得的基本概率分配(basic probability assignment,BPA)进行融合,获得系统风险水平的一致性描述。IEEE 39算例系统的计算结果证明了该方法的合理性。
