The onset,cessation,and length of the rainy season are crucial for global water resources,agricultural practices,and food security.However,the response of precipitation seasonality to global warming remains uncertain....The onset,cessation,and length of the rainy season are crucial for global water resources,agricultural practices,and food security.However,the response of precipitation seasonality to global warming remains uncertain.In this study,we analyze how global warming levels(GWLs)of 1.5℃ and 2℃ could affect the timing of rainfall onset(RODs),rainfall cessation(RCDs),and the overall duration of the rainy season(LRS)over global land monsoon(GLM)regions using simulations from CMIP6 under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios.With high model consensus,our results reveal that RODs are projected to occur later over Southern Africa,North Africa,and South America,but earlier over South Asia and Australia,in a warmer climate.The projected early RODs in Australia are more pronounced at the 2℃ GWL under SSP5-8.5.On the other hand,early RCDs are projected over South America and East Asia,while late RCDs are projected over North Africa,with high inter-model agreement.These changes are associated with a future decrease in LRS in most GLM regions.Additionally,we found that continuous warming over 1.5℃ will further reduce the length of the rainy season,especially over the South America,North Africa,and Southern Africa monsoon regions.The findings underscore the urgent need to mitigate global warming.展开更多
Starting from the Bay of Bengal storm,based on conventional meteorological data,FY2G meteorological satellite data,EC fine grid data and ERA5 reanalysis data,the first rainstorm process in Dehong Prefecture in the ear...Starting from the Bay of Bengal storm,based on conventional meteorological data,FY2G meteorological satellite data,EC fine grid data and ERA5 reanalysis data,the first rainstorm process in Dehong Prefecture in the early summer of 2024 was analyzed.The results show that the strengthening and northeastward movement of the Bay of Bengal storm"Remal"was the main influencing system for the generation of continuous heavy precipitation in Dehong Prefecture from May 25 to 27,2024.The establishment and strengthening of the low-level southwest jet stream provided better dynamic,water vapor and energy conditions for the generation of this heavy precipitation.The generation and maintenance of rainstorm required the transportation of a steady stream of water vapor to the rainstorm area,and there was strong convergence of water vapor in the rainstorm area.Therefore,in the forecast of summer rainstorm,whether the low-level jet stream is generated or not is very important for the forecast of rainstorm.In addition,there was a good corresponding relationship between the falling area of heavy precipitation,precipitation intensity and duration,and low-level water vapor convergence area.The establishment of southwest monsoon is of great significance to the beginning date of rainy season in Dehong Prefecture.The beginning date of rainy season in Dehong Prefecture was closely related to the first rainstorm process in Dehong Prefecture in early summer.In the future prediction of the beginning date of rainy season in Dehong Prefecture,the first statewide rainstorm process in early summer should be the key point for the prediction.展开更多
In 2022, South China(SC) experienced record-breaking rainfall during its first rainy season, causing severe socioeconomic losses. This study examines the large-scale circulation anomalies responsible for this extreme ...In 2022, South China(SC) experienced record-breaking rainfall during its first rainy season, causing severe socioeconomic losses. This study examines the large-scale circulation anomalies responsible for this extreme event.Analysis reveals that the lower-tropospheric cyclonic anomaly over SC plays a crucial role. This cyclonic anomaly consists of extratropical northeasterly anomalies to the north of SC and tropical southwesterly anomalies to the south. Both components were particularly intense during the 2022 first rainy season, contributing to the heavy rainfall in SC. Moreover,the lower-tropospheric cyclonic anomaly is enhanced by its counterpart in the upper troposphere, which is associated with a wave train propagating from the North Atlantic to East Asia across the mid-high latitudes of the Eurasian continent.Further analysis indicates that the extratropical wave train correlates with sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTAs) in the North Atlantic. Additionally, the SSTAs over the North Indian Ocean also play a role in enhancing the tropical southwesterlies in the lower troposphere. This study highlights the combined influence of tropical and extratropical circulation anomalies, offering a comprehensive understanding of the record-breaking rainfall.展开更多
The year of 2013 is a typical rainy and poor sunshine year, and the monthly sunshine hours from May to October were all lower than the average, which from July to September was only 69.3%,71.1% and 56.2% of average, r...The year of 2013 is a typical rainy and poor sunshine year, and the monthly sunshine hours from May to October were all lower than the average, which from July to September was only 69.3%,71.1% and 56.2% of average, respectively. In cotton-wheat system 10 cotton varieties （lines） were planted to select the most suitable varieties for cotton-wheat system in rainy and poor sunshine years through investigating cotton growing traits in 2013. The results showed that in cotton-wheat system the vegetative growth of cotton was mainly from late June to middle July especially in rainy and poor sunshine years. And with the increase of the cotton growth period the peak of vegetative growth delayed, the ratio of the autumn bolls increased, and the ratio of pre-frost yield decreased. In all the varieties unginned cottonyield of Zhongmiansuo 50 with shorter growth period, higher rate of summer bolls and better fiber quality, seed yield reached 3 814.1 kg/hm2, higher than that of other varieties （lines） significantly, and the rate of pre-frost yield reached 83.4%, which was the most suitable variety for cotton-wheat system in rainy and poor sunshine years.展开更多
The mean onset and withdrawal of summer rainy season over the Indochina Peninsula were investigated using 5-day averaged rainfall data (1975-87). The mean seasonal transition process during onset and retreat phases in...The mean onset and withdrawal of summer rainy season over the Indochina Peninsula were investigated using 5-day averaged rainfall data (1975-87). The mean seasonal transition process during onset and retreat phases in Indochina, India and the South China Sea is also examined using 5-day mean OLR (1975-87) and 850 hPa wind (1980-88) data. It was found that the onset of summer rainy season begins earlier in the inland region of Indochina (Thailand) in late April to early May than in the coastal region along the Bay of Bengal. This early onset of rainy season is due to pre-monsoon rain under the mid-latitude westerly wind regime. The full summer monsoon circulation begins to establish in mid-May, causing active convective activity both over the west coast of Indochina and the central South China Sea. In case of withdrawal, the earliest retreat of summer rainy season is found in the central northern part of Indochina in late September. The wind field, on the other hand, already changes to easterlies in the northern South China Sea in early September. This easterly wind system covers the eastern part of Indochina where post-monsoon rain is still active. In late October, the wind field turns to winter time situation, but post monsoon rain still continues in the southern part of the Indochina Peninsula until late November.展开更多
The aim of this work is to investigate the influence of rainy weather on traffic accidents of a freeway. The micro-scale driving behaviors in rainy weather and possible vehicle rear-end and sideslip accidents are anal...The aim of this work is to investigate the influence of rainy weather on traffic accidents of a freeway. The micro-scale driving behaviors in rainy weather and possible vehicle rear-end and sideslip accidents are analyzed. An improved CA model of two lanes one-way freeway is presented, where some vehicle accidents will occur when the necessary conditions are simultaneously satisfied. The characteristics of traffic flow under different rainfall intensities are discussed and the accident probabilities are analyzed via the simulation experiments by using variable speed limit （VSL） and incoming flow control. The results indicate that the measures are effective especially during heavy rainstorms or short-time heavy rainfall. According to different rainfall intensities, an appropriate strategy should be adopted in order to reduce the probability of vehicle accidents and enhance traffic flux as well.展开更多
The temporal variations in storm rainfall during the first rainy season (FRS) in South China (SC) are investigated in this study. The results show that the inter-annual variations in storm rainfall during the FRS in S...The temporal variations in storm rainfall during the first rainy season (FRS) in South China (SC) are investigated in this study. The results show that the inter-annual variations in storm rainfall during the FRS in SC seem to be mainly influenced by the frequency of storm rainfall, while both frequency and intensity affect the inter-decadal variations in the total storm rainfall. Using the definitions for the beginning and ending dates of the FRS, and the onset dates of the summer monsoon in SC, the FRS is further divided into two sub-periods, i.e., the frontal and monsoon rainfall periods. The inter-annual and inter-decadal variations in storm rainfall during these two periods are investigated here. The results reveal a significant out-of-phase correlation between the frontal and monsoon storm rainfall, especially on the inter-decadal timescale, the physical mechanism for which requires further investigation.展开更多
In this paper, based on in-situ observational data of the Coordinated Enhanced Observing Period （CEOP） Asia-Australia Monsoon Project （CAMP） on the Tibetan＇Plateau （CAMP-Tibet）, structure of the Atmospheric Bou...In this paper, based on in-situ observational data of the Coordinated Enhanced Observing Period （CEOP） Asia-Australia Monsoon Project （CAMP） on the Tibetan＇Plateau （CAMP-Tibet）, structure of the Atmospheric Boundary Layer （ABL） was preliminarily studied during the dry and rainy seasons. The main results show： （a） Diurnal variation of the ABL is obvious over the northern Tibetan Plateau area. The height of the ABL is different with the season change, which ranges from 2,211 m to 4,430 m during the pre-monsoon season and from 1,006 m to 2,212 m during the monsoon season. The ABL height is higher during the dry period than during the rainyigeriod. （b） The humidity is lower during the dry period than during the rainy period, and there are reverse humidity during both periods. （c） Horizontal wind direction is mostly west during the dry period, east under the height of 2,500 m and west above the height of 2,500 m during the rainy period. The wind speed is low during both the rainy and dry periods in the lower ABL layer. The wind speed is stronger within the upper ABL during the dry period than dtn-ing the rainy period.展开更多
A scheme of assimilating radar-retrieved water vapor is adopted to improve the quality of NWP initial field for improvement of the accuracy of short-range precipitation prediction. To reveal the impact of the assimila...A scheme of assimilating radar-retrieved water vapor is adopted to improve the quality of NWP initial field for improvement of the accuracy of short-range precipitation prediction. To reveal the impact of the assimilation of radar-retrieved water vapor on short-term precipitation forecast, three parallel experiments, cold start, hot start and hot start plus the assimilation of radar-retrieved water vapor, are designed to simulate the 31 days of May, 2013 with a fine numerical model for South China. Furthermore, a case of heavy rain that occurred from 8-9 May 2013 over the region from the southwest of Guangdong province to Pearl River Delta is analyzed in detail. Results show that the cold start experiment is not conducive to precipitation 12 hours ahead; the hot start experiment is able to reproduce well the first6 hours of precipitation, but badly for subsequent prediction; the experiment of assimilating radar-retrieved water vapor is not only able to simulate well the precipitation 6 hours ahead, but also able to correctly predict the evolution of rain bands from 6 to 12 hours in advance.展开更多
The teleconnection distribution characteristics of sea surface temperature (SST) over the India Ocean and the precipitation during rainy season in China were studied by using the methods of EOF and CCA. The results in...The teleconnection distribution characteristics of sea surface temperature (SST) over the India Ocean and the precipitation during rainy season in China were studied by using the methods of EOF and CCA. The results indicate that the change of SST field will affect the change of rain belt during rainy seasons in China, and greatly affect the precipitation in northwest and southwest China, the Yangzi and Yellow River downstream basins. Strong signal phenomena of SSTA over India Ocean were revealed that showed the anoma-lous distribution of drought and flood in China. It shows that the precipitation during rainy seasons in China may be forecast by analyzing SST distribution characteristics over the India Ocean.展开更多
According to the textual research into the historical documents dominated by archives yearly, as well as the verification with several other kinds of data, the later or earlier starting time of the rainy seasons in Yu...According to the textual research into the historical documents dominated by archives yearly, as well as the verification with several other kinds of data, the later or earlier starting time of the rainy seasons in Yunnan during 1711-1982 has been reconstructed. The analysis indicates that there are obvious fluctuations in the starting date of the rainy seasons in Yunnan in a year or years, and long fluctuation on the decadal scale. The rainy season comes earlier in the early 18th century, later in the 19th century and earlier again in the 20th century. This reflects to a certain degree the gradual change of the summer monsoon in Yunnan. There exists an obvious quasi-3 years cycle, which is related to EI-Nino＇s quasi-3 years cycle, and a 11.3-year cycle which is notably related to the 11-year cycle of the solar activity of starting date of the rainy seasons in Yunnan. Meanwhile, the dissertation finds that the EI-Nino is very important to the starting date of the rainy seasons in Yunnan. The starting date of the rainy seasons in Yunnan often comes later or normally in the year of EI-Nino. However, there is an obvious imperfect period in such influence, which in turn may mean that there is a certain fluctuation in the effect of ENSO on Asian summer monsoon.展开更多
Vast convective activities over tropical zones are analyzed for both wet and dry summers in North China. An ITCZ synthesis index is designed using OLR data. The index can demonstrate quite clearly and objectively the ...Vast convective activities over tropical zones are analyzed for both wet and dry summers in North China. An ITCZ synthesis index is designed using OLR data. The index can demonstrate quite clearly and objectively the seasonal features of deep convection in Asia monsoon areas. The differences of ITCZ activities in Indian as well as East Asian monsoon regions in winter-spring period are significant and so is the time-lagged correlation, which would be able to provide a new way to the long-lead prediction of summer rain in North China. The propagation characters of low frequency fluctuation are also different between wet and dry years. The intensity of low frequency fluctuation is stronger and the area is larger in wet years than that in dry years in both hemispheres, The fluctuation moves from south to north successively in wet years, which may lead to the leap of the subtropical high northwards, while it remains quasi-stationary in the Southern Hemisphere or the equatorial zone in dry years.展开更多
The feature bends and tunnels of mountainous expressways are often affected by bad weather,specif-ically rain and fog,which significantly threaten expressway safety and traffic efficiency.In order to solve this proble...The feature bends and tunnels of mountainous expressways are often affected by bad weather,specif-ically rain and fog,which significantly threaten expressway safety and traffic efficiency.In order to solve this problem,a vehicle–road coordination system based on the Internet of Things(IoT)is developed that can share vehicle–road information in real time,expand the environmental perception range of vehicles,and realize vehicle–road collaboration.It helps improve traffic safety and efficiency.Further,a vehicle–road cooperative driving assistance system model is introduced in this study,and it is based on IoT for improving the driving safety of mountainous expressways.Considering the influence of rain and fog on driving safety,the interaction between rainfall,water film,and adhesion coefficient is analyzed.An intelligent vehicle–road coordination assistance system is constructed that takes in information on weather,road parameters,and vehicle status,and takes the stopping sight distance model as well as rollover and sideslip model as boundary constraints.Tests conducted on a real expressway demonstrated that the assistance system model is helpful in bad weather conditions.This system could promote intelligent development of mountainous expressways.展开更多
Current dynamical models experience great difficulties providing reliable seasonal forecasts of regional/local rainfall in South China.This study evaluates seasonal forecast skill for precipitation in the first rainy ...Current dynamical models experience great difficulties providing reliable seasonal forecasts of regional/local rainfall in South China.This study evaluates seasonal forecast skill for precipitation in the first rainy season(FRS,i.e.,April–June)over South China from 1982 to 2020 based on the global real-time Climate Forecast System of Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology(NUIST-CFS1.0,previously known as SINTEX-F).The potential predictability and the practical forecast skill of NUIST-CFS1.0 for FRS precipitation remain low in general.But NUIST-CFS1.0 still performs better than the average of nine international models in terms of correlation coefficient skill in predicting the interannual precipitation anomaly and its related circulation index.NUIST-CFS1.0 captures the anomalous Philippines anticyclone,which transports moisture and heat northward to South China,favoring more precipitation in South China during the FRS.By examining the correlations between sea surface temperature(SST)and FRS precipitation and the Philippines anticyclone,we find that the model reasonably captures SST-associated precipitation and circulation anomalies,which partly explains the predictability of FRS precipitation.A dynamical downscaling model with 30-km resolution forced by the large-scale circulations of the NUIST-CFS1.0 predictions could improve forecasts of the climatological states and extreme precipitation events.Our results also reveal interesting interdecadal changes in the predictive skill for FRS precipitation in South China based on the NUIST-CFS1.0 hindcasts.These results help improve the understanding and forecasts for FRS precipitation in South China.展开更多
To enhance the serviceability of steel bridge deck pavement(SBDP)in high-temperature and rainy regions,a concept of rigid bottom and flexible top was summarized using engineering practices,which led to the proposal of...To enhance the serviceability of steel bridge deck pavement(SBDP)in high-temperature and rainy regions,a concept of rigid bottom and flexible top was summarized using engineering practices,which led to the proposal of a three-layer ultra-high-performance pavement(UHPP).The high-temperature rutting resistance and wet-weather skid resistance of UHPP were evaluated through composite structure tests.The internal temperature distribution within the pavement under typical high-temperature conditions was analyzed using a temperature field model.Additionally,a temperature-stress coupling model was employed to investigate the key load positions and stress response characteristics of the UHPP.The results indicate that compared with the traditional guss asphalt+stone mastic asphalt structure,the dynamic stability of the UHPP composite structure can be improved by up to 20.4%.Even under cyclic loading,UHPP still exhibits superior surface skid resistance compared to two traditional SBDPs.The thickness composition of UHPP significantly impacts its rutting resistance and skid resistance.UHPP exhibits relatively low tensile stress but higher shear stress levels,with the highest shear stress occurring between the UHPP and the steel plate.This suggests that the potential risk of damage for UHPP primarily lies within the interlayer of the pavement.Based on engineering examples,introducing interlayer gravel and optimizing the amount of bonding layer are advised to ensure that UHPP possesses sufficient interlayer shear resistance.展开更多
85-station daily precipitation data from 1961-2010 provided by the National Meteorological Information Center and the NCEP/NCAR 2010 daily reanalysis data are used to investigate the low-frequency variability on the p...85-station daily precipitation data from 1961-2010 provided by the National Meteorological Information Center and the NCEP/NCAR 2010 daily reanalysis data are used to investigate the low-frequency variability on the precipitation of the first rain season and its relationships with moisture transport in South China,and channels of low-frequency water vapor transport and sources of low-frequency precipitation are revealed.The annually first raining season precipitation in 2010 is mainly controlled by 10-20 d and 30-60 d oscillation.The rainfall is more(interrupted) when the two low-frequency components are in the same peak(valley) phase,and the rainfall is less when they are superposed in the inverse phase.The 10-20 d low-frequency component of the moisture transport is more active than the 30-60 d.The10-20 d water vapor sources lie in the South India Ocean near 30° S,the area between Sumatra and Kalimantan Island(the southwest source),and the equatorial middle Pacific region(the southeast source),and there are corresponding southwest and southeast moisture transport channels.By using the characteristics of 10-20 d water vapor transport anomalous circulation,the corresponding low-frequency precipitation can be predicted 6 d ahead.展开更多
The starting dates of the pre-summer rainy season during historical times （1736- 1911） in Fuzhou and Guangzhou of South China, were determined and reconstructed on the basis of historical documents in the Yu-Xue-Fen...The starting dates of the pre-summer rainy season during historical times （1736- 1911） in Fuzhou and Guangzhou of South China, were determined and reconstructed on the basis of historical documents in the Yu-Xue-Fen-Cun archive, together with observed features of precipitation during the pre-summer rainy season. In addition, starting dates of the pre-summer rainy season from 1953 in Fuzhou and from 1952 in Guangzhou were reconstructed for the instrumental period. These data allowed for analyses of inter-annual and inter-decadal changes in the starting dates of the pre-summer rainy season in South China over the past 300 years. Results show that the mean starting date of the pre-summer rainy season in South China was the first pentad of May; in addition, periodicities in the starting dates of 2-3 years, 10 years, and 40 years were detected during the period 1736-1911, and of 2-3 years, 10 years, and 22 years during the instrumental period. From 1736 to 1911, the earliest starting dates at Fuzhou and Guangzhou both occurred at the fourth pentad of April, while the latest starting dates were at the sixth pentad of May in Fuzhou and the first pentad of June in Guangzhou. During the instrumental period, the earliest and latest starting dates were at the fourth pentad of April and the first pentad of June, respectively, in both Fuzhou during 1953-2010 and Guangzhou during 1952-2010. The maximum difference between neighboring decades during 1736-1911 was 2.2 and 1.6 pentads in Fuzhou and Guangzhou, respectively, and during the instrumental period it was 2.5 and 2.4 pentads in Fuzhou and Guangzhou, respectively.展开更多
Considering the differences between the Northeast China Cold Vortex （CV） and the Mid-Summer （MS） rainy period and their corresponding atmospheric circulations are comprehensively analyzed, and the objective identi...Considering the differences between the Northeast China Cold Vortex （CV） and the Mid-Summer （MS） rainy period and their corresponding atmospheric circulations are comprehensively analyzed, and the objective identification methods of defining the annual beginning and ending dates of Northeast China CV and MS rainy periods are developed respectively. The annual beginning date of the CV （MS） rainy period is as follows. In a period from April to August, if daily regional mean precipitation ryi is larger than yearly regional mean precipitation R （or 2R） on a certain day, the station precipitation rs is larger than the station yearly mean precipitation （r/ （or 2（r）） in at least 50% of stations in Northeast China, and this condition is satisfied in the following 2 （7） days, then this date is defined as the beginning date of the CV （MS） rainy period. While the definition of the ending date of the MS rainy period shows the opposite process to its beginning date. With this objective identification method, the multi-year average （1981-2010） beginning date of the CV rainy period is May 3, the beginning date of the MS rainy period is June 27, the ending day of the CV rainy period is defined as the day before the beginning date of the MS rainy period, and the ending date of the MS rainy period is August 29. Meanwhile, corresponding anomaly analysis at a 500-hPa geopotential height, 850-hPa wind, Omega and relative humidity fields all show that the definitions of the average beginning and ending dates of the CV and MS rainy periods have a certain circulation meaning. Furthermore, the daily evolution of the CV index, meridional and zonal wind index, etc. all show that these objectively defined beginning and ending dates of the CV and MS rainy periods have climate significance.展开更多
基金supported by the Australian Research Council(Grant No.CE230100012)。
文摘The onset,cessation,and length of the rainy season are crucial for global water resources,agricultural practices,and food security.However,the response of precipitation seasonality to global warming remains uncertain.In this study,we analyze how global warming levels(GWLs)of 1.5℃ and 2℃ could affect the timing of rainfall onset(RODs),rainfall cessation(RCDs),and the overall duration of the rainy season(LRS)over global land monsoon(GLM)regions using simulations from CMIP6 under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios.With high model consensus,our results reveal that RODs are projected to occur later over Southern Africa,North Africa,and South America,but earlier over South Asia and Australia,in a warmer climate.The projected early RODs in Australia are more pronounced at the 2℃ GWL under SSP5-8.5.On the other hand,early RCDs are projected over South America and East Asia,while late RCDs are projected over North Africa,with high inter-model agreement.These changes are associated with a future decrease in LRS in most GLM regions.Additionally,we found that continuous warming over 1.5℃ will further reduce the length of the rainy season,especially over the South America,North Africa,and Southern Africa monsoon regions.The findings underscore the urgent need to mitigate global warming.
基金Supported by the"Short,Simple and Fast"Project of Meteorological Science and Technology of Dehong Prefecture(DPK2024-01).
文摘Starting from the Bay of Bengal storm,based on conventional meteorological data,FY2G meteorological satellite data,EC fine grid data and ERA5 reanalysis data,the first rainstorm process in Dehong Prefecture in the early summer of 2024 was analyzed.The results show that the strengthening and northeastward movement of the Bay of Bengal storm"Remal"was the main influencing system for the generation of continuous heavy precipitation in Dehong Prefecture from May 25 to 27,2024.The establishment and strengthening of the low-level southwest jet stream provided better dynamic,water vapor and energy conditions for the generation of this heavy precipitation.The generation and maintenance of rainstorm required the transportation of a steady stream of water vapor to the rainstorm area,and there was strong convergence of water vapor in the rainstorm area.Therefore,in the forecast of summer rainstorm,whether the low-level jet stream is generated or not is very important for the forecast of rainstorm.In addition,there was a good corresponding relationship between the falling area of heavy precipitation,precipitation intensity and duration,and low-level water vapor convergence area.The establishment of southwest monsoon is of great significance to the beginning date of rainy season in Dehong Prefecture.The beginning date of rainy season in Dehong Prefecture was closely related to the first rainstorm process in Dehong Prefecture in early summer.In the future prediction of the beginning date of rainy season in Dehong Prefecture,the first statewide rainstorm process in early summer should be the key point for the prediction.
基金Guangdong Major Project of Basic and Applied Basic Research (2020B0301030004)National Natural Science Foundation of China (42275041)Hainan Province Science and Technology Special Fund (SOLZSKY2025006)。
文摘In 2022, South China(SC) experienced record-breaking rainfall during its first rainy season, causing severe socioeconomic losses. This study examines the large-scale circulation anomalies responsible for this extreme event.Analysis reveals that the lower-tropospheric cyclonic anomaly over SC plays a crucial role. This cyclonic anomaly consists of extratropical northeasterly anomalies to the north of SC and tropical southwesterly anomalies to the south. Both components were particularly intense during the 2022 first rainy season, contributing to the heavy rainfall in SC. Moreover,the lower-tropospheric cyclonic anomaly is enhanced by its counterpart in the upper troposphere, which is associated with a wave train propagating from the North Atlantic to East Asia across the mid-high latitudes of the Eurasian continent.Further analysis indicates that the extratropical wave train correlates with sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTAs) in the North Atlantic. Additionally, the SSTAs over the North Indian Ocean also play a role in enhancing the tropical southwesterlies in the lower troposphere. This study highlights the combined influence of tropical and extratropical circulation anomalies, offering a comprehensive understanding of the record-breaking rainfall.
基金Supported by Project Supported by National Science and Technology Ministry(2013BAD05B00)National Cotton Industry System(CARS-18-21)~~
文摘The year of 2013 is a typical rainy and poor sunshine year, and the monthly sunshine hours from May to October were all lower than the average, which from July to September was only 69.3%,71.1% and 56.2% of average, respectively. In cotton-wheat system 10 cotton varieties （lines） were planted to select the most suitable varieties for cotton-wheat system in rainy and poor sunshine years through investigating cotton growing traits in 2013. The results showed that in cotton-wheat system the vegetative growth of cotton was mainly from late June to middle July especially in rainy and poor sunshine years. And with the increase of the cotton growth period the peak of vegetative growth delayed, the ratio of the autumn bolls increased, and the ratio of pre-frost yield decreased. In all the varieties unginned cottonyield of Zhongmiansuo 50 with shorter growth period, higher rate of summer bolls and better fiber quality, seed yield reached 3 814.1 kg/hm2, higher than that of other varieties （lines） significantly, and the rate of pre-frost yield reached 83.4%, which was the most suitable variety for cotton-wheat system in rainy and poor sunshine years.
文摘The mean onset and withdrawal of summer rainy season over the Indochina Peninsula were investigated using 5-day averaged rainfall data (1975-87). The mean seasonal transition process during onset and retreat phases in Indochina, India and the South China Sea is also examined using 5-day mean OLR (1975-87) and 850 hPa wind (1980-88) data. It was found that the onset of summer rainy season begins earlier in the inland region of Indochina (Thailand) in late April to early May than in the coastal region along the Bay of Bengal. This early onset of rainy season is due to pre-monsoon rain under the mid-latitude westerly wind regime. The full summer monsoon circulation begins to establish in mid-May, causing active convective activity both over the west coast of Indochina and the central South China Sea. In case of withdrawal, the earliest retreat of summer rainy season is found in the central northern part of Indochina in late September. The wind field, on the other hand, already changes to easterlies in the northern South China Sea in early September. This easterly wind system covers the eastern part of Indochina where post-monsoon rain is still active. In late October, the wind field turns to winter time situation, but post monsoon rain still continues in the southern part of the Indochina Peninsula until late November.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.50478088)the Natural Science Foundation of Hebei Province,China(Grant No.E2015202266)
文摘The aim of this work is to investigate the influence of rainy weather on traffic accidents of a freeway. The micro-scale driving behaviors in rainy weather and possible vehicle rear-end and sideslip accidents are analyzed. An improved CA model of two lanes one-way freeway is presented, where some vehicle accidents will occur when the necessary conditions are simultaneously satisfied. The characteristics of traffic flow under different rainfall intensities are discussed and the accident probabilities are analyzed via the simulation experiments by using variable speed limit （VSL） and incoming flow control. The results indicate that the measures are effective especially during heavy rainstorms or short-time heavy rainfall. According to different rainfall intensities, an appropriate strategy should be adopted in order to reduce the probability of vehicle accidents and enhance traffic flux as well.
基金supported jointly by the National Key Technologies R&D Program of China(Grant No.2008BAK50B02)the National Basic Research Program of China(Grant No.2009CB421405)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.40730952)
文摘The temporal variations in storm rainfall during the first rainy season (FRS) in South China (SC) are investigated in this study. The results show that the inter-annual variations in storm rainfall during the FRS in SC seem to be mainly influenced by the frequency of storm rainfall, while both frequency and intensity affect the inter-decadal variations in the total storm rainfall. Using the definitions for the beginning and ending dates of the FRS, and the onset dates of the summer monsoon in SC, the FRS is further divided into two sub-periods, i.e., the frontal and monsoon rainfall periods. The inter-annual and inter-decadal variations in storm rainfall during these two periods are investigated here. The results reveal a significant out-of-phase correlation between the frontal and monsoon storm rainfall, especially on the inter-decadal timescale, the physical mechanism for which requires further investigation.
基金under the auspices of the Chinese National Key Programme for Developing Basic Sciences (2010CB951703)the Chinese National Key Programme for Developing Basic Sciences (2005CB422003)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41175008, 40810059006 and 40675012)
文摘In this paper, based on in-situ observational data of the Coordinated Enhanced Observing Period （CEOP） Asia-Australia Monsoon Project （CAMP） on the Tibetan＇Plateau （CAMP-Tibet）, structure of the Atmospheric Boundary Layer （ABL） was preliminarily studied during the dry and rainy seasons. The main results show： （a） Diurnal variation of the ABL is obvious over the northern Tibetan Plateau area. The height of the ABL is different with the season change, which ranges from 2,211 m to 4,430 m during the pre-monsoon season and from 1,006 m to 2,212 m during the monsoon season. The ABL height is higher during the dry period than during the rainyigeriod. （b） The humidity is lower during the dry period than during the rainy period, and there are reverse humidity during both periods. （c） Horizontal wind direction is mostly west during the dry period, east under the height of 2,500 m and west above the height of 2,500 m during the rainy period. The wind speed is low during both the rainy and dry periods in the lower ABL layer. The wind speed is stronger within the upper ABL during the dry period than dtn-ing the rainy period.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(41075040,41475102)"973"project for typhoon(2015CB452802)+1 种基金CMA Special Welfare Research Fund(GYHY201406009)Public Welfare(Meteorological Sector)Research Fund(GYHY201406003)
文摘A scheme of assimilating radar-retrieved water vapor is adopted to improve the quality of NWP initial field for improvement of the accuracy of short-range precipitation prediction. To reveal the impact of the assimilation of radar-retrieved water vapor on short-term precipitation forecast, three parallel experiments, cold start, hot start and hot start plus the assimilation of radar-retrieved water vapor, are designed to simulate the 31 days of May, 2013 with a fine numerical model for South China. Furthermore, a case of heavy rain that occurred from 8-9 May 2013 over the region from the southwest of Guangdong province to Pearl River Delta is analyzed in detail. Results show that the cold start experiment is not conducive to precipitation 12 hours ahead; the hot start experiment is able to reproduce well the first6 hours of precipitation, but badly for subsequent prediction; the experiment of assimilating radar-retrieved water vapor is not only able to simulate well the precipitation 6 hours ahead, but also able to correctly predict the evolution of rain bands from 6 to 12 hours in advance.
基金Mechanisms for important climatic catastrophes in China and theoretic study of the predic-tion" a project first set off in the "Plan for developing key national fundamental research" Project 97D033Q of Application Fund by the Science and Technology F
文摘The teleconnection distribution characteristics of sea surface temperature (SST) over the India Ocean and the precipitation during rainy season in China were studied by using the methods of EOF and CCA. The results indicate that the change of SST field will affect the change of rain belt during rainy seasons in China, and greatly affect the precipitation in northwest and southwest China, the Yangzi and Yellow River downstream basins. Strong signal phenomena of SSTA over India Ocean were revealed that showed the anoma-lous distribution of drought and flood in China. It shows that the precipitation during rainy seasons in China may be forecast by analyzing SST distribution characteristics over the India Ocean.
基金Knowledge Innovation Program of CAS, No.KZCX3-SW-321-3Key Project of the Ministry of Education of China, No.01JAZJD770008
文摘According to the textual research into the historical documents dominated by archives yearly, as well as the verification with several other kinds of data, the later or earlier starting time of the rainy seasons in Yunnan during 1711-1982 has been reconstructed. The analysis indicates that there are obvious fluctuations in the starting date of the rainy seasons in Yunnan in a year or years, and long fluctuation on the decadal scale. The rainy season comes earlier in the early 18th century, later in the 19th century and earlier again in the 20th century. This reflects to a certain degree the gradual change of the summer monsoon in Yunnan. There exists an obvious quasi-3 years cycle, which is related to EI-Nino＇s quasi-3 years cycle, and a 11.3-year cycle which is notably related to the 11-year cycle of the solar activity of starting date of the rainy seasons in Yunnan. Meanwhile, the dissertation finds that the EI-Nino is very important to the starting date of the rainy seasons in Yunnan. The starting date of the rainy seasons in Yunnan often comes later or normally in the year of EI-Nino. However, there is an obvious imperfect period in such influence, which in turn may mean that there is a certain fluctuation in the effect of ENSO on Asian summer monsoon.
文摘Vast convective activities over tropical zones are analyzed for both wet and dry summers in North China. An ITCZ synthesis index is designed using OLR data. The index can demonstrate quite clearly and objectively the seasonal features of deep convection in Asia monsoon areas. The differences of ITCZ activities in Indian as well as East Asian monsoon regions in winter-spring period are significant and so is the time-lagged correlation, which would be able to provide a new way to the long-lead prediction of summer rain in North China. The propagation characters of low frequency fluctuation are also different between wet and dry years. The intensity of low frequency fluctuation is stronger and the area is larger in wet years than that in dry years in both hemispheres, The fluctuation moves from south to north successively in wet years, which may lead to the leap of the subtropical high northwards, while it remains quasi-stationary in the Southern Hemisphere or the equatorial zone in dry years.
基金the Project of Zhejiang Provincial Transportation Department(No.2020059)。
文摘The feature bends and tunnels of mountainous expressways are often affected by bad weather,specif-ically rain and fog,which significantly threaten expressway safety and traffic efficiency.In order to solve this problem,a vehicle–road coordination system based on the Internet of Things(IoT)is developed that can share vehicle–road information in real time,expand the environmental perception range of vehicles,and realize vehicle–road collaboration.It helps improve traffic safety and efficiency.Further,a vehicle–road cooperative driving assistance system model is introduced in this study,and it is based on IoT for improving the driving safety of mountainous expressways.Considering the influence of rain and fog on driving safety,the interaction between rainfall,water film,and adhesion coefficient is analyzed.An intelligent vehicle–road coordination assistance system is constructed that takes in information on weather,road parameters,and vehicle status,and takes the stopping sight distance model as well as rollover and sideslip model as boundary constraints.Tests conducted on a real expressway demonstrated that the assistance system model is helpful in bad weather conditions.This system could promote intelligent development of mountainous expressways.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42088101 and 42030605)National Key R&D Program of China(Grant No.2020YFA0608000)。
文摘Current dynamical models experience great difficulties providing reliable seasonal forecasts of regional/local rainfall in South China.This study evaluates seasonal forecast skill for precipitation in the first rainy season(FRS,i.e.,April–June)over South China from 1982 to 2020 based on the global real-time Climate Forecast System of Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology(NUIST-CFS1.0,previously known as SINTEX-F).The potential predictability and the practical forecast skill of NUIST-CFS1.0 for FRS precipitation remain low in general.But NUIST-CFS1.0 still performs better than the average of nine international models in terms of correlation coefficient skill in predicting the interannual precipitation anomaly and its related circulation index.NUIST-CFS1.0 captures the anomalous Philippines anticyclone,which transports moisture and heat northward to South China,favoring more precipitation in South China during the FRS.By examining the correlations between sea surface temperature(SST)and FRS precipitation and the Philippines anticyclone,we find that the model reasonably captures SST-associated precipitation and circulation anomalies,which partly explains the predictability of FRS precipitation.A dynamical downscaling model with 30-km resolution forced by the large-scale circulations of the NUIST-CFS1.0 predictions could improve forecasts of the climatological states and extreme precipitation events.Our results also reveal interesting interdecadal changes in the predictive skill for FRS precipitation in South China based on the NUIST-CFS1.0 hindcasts.These results help improve the understanding and forecasts for FRS precipitation in South China.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51878167)the Postgraduate Research and Practice Innovation Program of Jiangsu Province(No.KYCX23_0300).
文摘To enhance the serviceability of steel bridge deck pavement(SBDP)in high-temperature and rainy regions,a concept of rigid bottom and flexible top was summarized using engineering practices,which led to the proposal of a three-layer ultra-high-performance pavement(UHPP).The high-temperature rutting resistance and wet-weather skid resistance of UHPP were evaluated through composite structure tests.The internal temperature distribution within the pavement under typical high-temperature conditions was analyzed using a temperature field model.Additionally,a temperature-stress coupling model was employed to investigate the key load positions and stress response characteristics of the UHPP.The results indicate that compared with the traditional guss asphalt+stone mastic asphalt structure,the dynamic stability of the UHPP composite structure can be improved by up to 20.4%.Even under cyclic loading,UHPP still exhibits superior surface skid resistance compared to two traditional SBDPs.The thickness composition of UHPP significantly impacts its rutting resistance and skid resistance.UHPP exhibits relatively low tensile stress but higher shear stress levels,with the highest shear stress occurring between the UHPP and the steel plate.This suggests that the potential risk of damage for UHPP primarily lies within the interlayer of the pavement.Based on engineering examples,introducing interlayer gravel and optimizing the amount of bonding layer are advised to ensure that UHPP possesses sufficient interlayer shear resistance.
基金973 Program(2015CB453202)Specific Project on Public Fields(GYHY201406024)+2 种基金Key National Natural Science Foundation of China(41330425)Third-level Talent Training Project of the Fourth"333 project"in Jiangsu ProvincePriority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions(PAPD)
文摘85-station daily precipitation data from 1961-2010 provided by the National Meteorological Information Center and the NCEP/NCAR 2010 daily reanalysis data are used to investigate the low-frequency variability on the precipitation of the first rain season and its relationships with moisture transport in South China,and channels of low-frequency water vapor transport and sources of low-frequency precipitation are revealed.The annually first raining season precipitation in 2010 is mainly controlled by 10-20 d and 30-60 d oscillation.The rainfall is more(interrupted) when the two low-frequency components are in the same peak(valley) phase,and the rainfall is less when they are superposed in the inverse phase.The 10-20 d low-frequency component of the moisture transport is more active than the 30-60 d.The10-20 d water vapor sources lie in the South India Ocean near 30° S,the area between Sumatra and Kalimantan Island(the southwest source),and the equatorial middle Pacific region(the southeast source),and there are corresponding southwest and southeast moisture transport channels.By using the characteristics of 10-20 d water vapor transport anomalous circulation,the corresponding low-frequency precipitation can be predicted 6 d ahead.
基金Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,No.XDA05080100"135"strategic Research Project of IGSNRR,CAS,No.2012ZD001Basic Research Project of the Ministry of Science and Technology,No.2011FY120300
文摘The starting dates of the pre-summer rainy season during historical times （1736- 1911） in Fuzhou and Guangzhou of South China, were determined and reconstructed on the basis of historical documents in the Yu-Xue-Fen-Cun archive, together with observed features of precipitation during the pre-summer rainy season. In addition, starting dates of the pre-summer rainy season from 1953 in Fuzhou and from 1952 in Guangzhou were reconstructed for the instrumental period. These data allowed for analyses of inter-annual and inter-decadal changes in the starting dates of the pre-summer rainy season in South China over the past 300 years. Results show that the mean starting date of the pre-summer rainy season in South China was the first pentad of May; in addition, periodicities in the starting dates of 2-3 years, 10 years, and 40 years were detected during the period 1736-1911, and of 2-3 years, 10 years, and 22 years during the instrumental period. From 1736 to 1911, the earliest starting dates at Fuzhou and Guangzhou both occurred at the fourth pentad of April, while the latest starting dates were at the sixth pentad of May in Fuzhou and the first pentad of June in Guangzhou. During the instrumental period, the earliest and latest starting dates were at the fourth pentad of April and the first pentad of June, respectively, in both Fuzhou during 1953-2010 and Guangzhou during 1952-2010. The maximum difference between neighboring decades during 1736-1911 was 2.2 and 1.6 pentads in Fuzhou and Guangzhou, respectively, and during the instrumental period it was 2.5 and 2.4 pentads in Fuzhou and Guangzhou, respectively.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41205040 and 41375078)the State Key Development Program for Basic Research,China(Grant No.2012CB955203)the Special Scientific Research Project for Public Interest(Grant No.GYHY201306021)
文摘Considering the differences between the Northeast China Cold Vortex （CV） and the Mid-Summer （MS） rainy period and their corresponding atmospheric circulations are comprehensively analyzed, and the objective identification methods of defining the annual beginning and ending dates of Northeast China CV and MS rainy periods are developed respectively. The annual beginning date of the CV （MS） rainy period is as follows. In a period from April to August, if daily regional mean precipitation ryi is larger than yearly regional mean precipitation R （or 2R） on a certain day, the station precipitation rs is larger than the station yearly mean precipitation （r/ （or 2（r）） in at least 50% of stations in Northeast China, and this condition is satisfied in the following 2 （7） days, then this date is defined as the beginning date of the CV （MS） rainy period. While the definition of the ending date of the MS rainy period shows the opposite process to its beginning date. With this objective identification method, the multi-year average （1981-2010） beginning date of the CV rainy period is May 3, the beginning date of the MS rainy period is June 27, the ending day of the CV rainy period is defined as the day before the beginning date of the MS rainy period, and the ending date of the MS rainy period is August 29. Meanwhile, corresponding anomaly analysis at a 500-hPa geopotential height, 850-hPa wind, Omega and relative humidity fields all show that the definitions of the average beginning and ending dates of the CV and MS rainy periods have a certain circulation meaning. Furthermore, the daily evolution of the CV index, meridional and zonal wind index, etc. all show that these objectively defined beginning and ending dates of the CV and MS rainy periods have climate significance.
