Seismic intensity is critical for post-earthquake hazard assessment and response,but is often delayed because field surveys are required.Here,we propose a simple scheme for quick prediction of earthquake ground shakin...Seismic intensity is critical for post-earthquake hazard assessment and response,but is often delayed because field surveys are required.Here,we propose a simple scheme for quick prediction of earthquake ground shaking intensity using high-rate Global Navigation Satellite System(GNSS)data.In the scheme,high-rate GNSS displacement waveforms and static GNSS coseismic offsets are first used to invert the fault rupture process based on a one-fault model.The kinematic slip model is then employed as input for kinematic forward simulation to predict strong ground motion,which is subsequently convert into seismic intensities according to the China seismic intensity scale(GB/T 17742–2020).We take the 2021 Mw 7.3 Maduo Earthquake as a case study to illustrate the feasibility of this scheme.Our results show that the seismic intensity produced by the one-fault model is consistent with that from field investigations,especially in meizoseismal zones,suggesting that the scheme may serve as a potential solution for quick prediction of seismic intensity,which helps to disaster relief efforts after strong earthquakes.展开更多
In order to realize the aircraft trajectory prediction,a modified interacting multiple model(M-IMM) algorithm is proposed,which is based on the performance analysis of the standard interacting multiple model(IMM) algo...In order to realize the aircraft trajectory prediction,a modified interacting multiple model(M-IMM) algorithm is proposed,which is based on the performance analysis of the standard interacting multiple model(IMM) algorithm.In the proposed M-IMM algorithm,a new likelihood function is defined for the sake of updating flight mode probabilities,in which the influences of interacting to residual's mean error are taken into account and the assumption of likelihood function being a zero mean Gaussian function is discarded.Finally,the proposed M-IMM algorithm is applied to the simulation of the aircraft trajectory prediction,and the comparative studies are conducted to existing algorithms.The simulation results indicate the proposed M-IMM algorithm can predict aircraft trajectory more quickly and accurately.展开更多
基金supported by the Basic Scientific Funding of the Institute of Geology,China Earthquake Administration(No.IGCEA2120)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.U2139202 and 42104007)the Innovation Fund Project for College Teachers of Gansu Provincial Education Department(No.2025A-041)。
文摘Seismic intensity is critical for post-earthquake hazard assessment and response,but is often delayed because field surveys are required.Here,we propose a simple scheme for quick prediction of earthquake ground shaking intensity using high-rate Global Navigation Satellite System(GNSS)data.In the scheme,high-rate GNSS displacement waveforms and static GNSS coseismic offsets are first used to invert the fault rupture process based on a one-fault model.The kinematic slip model is then employed as input for kinematic forward simulation to predict strong ground motion,which is subsequently convert into seismic intensities according to the China seismic intensity scale(GB/T 17742–2020).We take the 2021 Mw 7.3 Maduo Earthquake as a case study to illustrate the feasibility of this scheme.Our results show that the seismic intensity produced by the one-fault model is consistent with that from field investigations,especially in meizoseismal zones,suggesting that the scheme may serve as a potential solution for quick prediction of seismic intensity,which helps to disaster relief efforts after strong earthquakes.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.71401072)Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province,China(No.BK20130814)Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities,China(No.NS2013064)
文摘In order to realize the aircraft trajectory prediction,a modified interacting multiple model(M-IMM) algorithm is proposed,which is based on the performance analysis of the standard interacting multiple model(IMM) algorithm.In the proposed M-IMM algorithm,a new likelihood function is defined for the sake of updating flight mode probabilities,in which the influences of interacting to residual's mean error are taken into account and the assumption of likelihood function being a zero mean Gaussian function is discarded.Finally,the proposed M-IMM algorithm is applied to the simulation of the aircraft trajectory prediction,and the comparative studies are conducted to existing algorithms.The simulation results indicate the proposed M-IMM algorithm can predict aircraft trajectory more quickly and accurately.
