Climate change strongly affected the structure and functions of natural ecosystems,e.g.the vegetation productivity decreased in the Northeast permafrost region due to the higher temperature and less precipitation,wher...Climate change strongly affected the structure and functions of natural ecosystems,e.g.the vegetation productivity decreased in the Northeast permafrost region due to the higher temperature and less precipitation,whereas in the Tibetan Plateau,the vegetation productivity increased,owing to the improved thermal resource.Climate change led to reduced precipitation in North and Northeast China and thus the reduced surface runoff.The public needs for energy were changed because of climate change,e.g.the shorter heating period in winter.Climate change profoundly influenced human health,pathophoresis and major projects by increasing extreme events,including frequency and magnitude,and causing more serious water shortage.Under the background of climate change,although the improved thermal resources can be helpful for extending the crop growth period,more extreme events may resulted in more instability in agricultural productivity.Not only did climate change indirectly affect the secondary and tertiary industries through the impacts on agriculture and natural resources,but also climate change mitigation measures,such as carbon tax,tariff and trading,had extensive and profound influences on the socioeconomic system.Further analysis indicated that the impact of climate change presented significant regional differences.The impact had its pros and cons,while the advantages outweighed the disadvantages.Based on the above analysis on the impacts of climate change,we put forward suggestions on coping with climate change.First,scientifically dealing with climate change will need to seek advantages while avoiding the disadvantages of climate change in order to achieve the orderly adaptation to climate change,which is characterized with"Overall best,long-term benefit."Second,quantitative adaptation should be given more attention,e.g.proposing operational schemes and predictable goals and using uncertainty analysis on adaptation measures.Third,more active coping strategy should be adopted to enhance China's future comprehensive competitiveness.The strategies include but are not limited to gradually adjusting the industrial structure,intensifying the research and development(R&D)of emission reduction technology and actively responding to the influence of carbon tax,tariff and trading on socioeconomic development in China.展开更多
针对分队级战场抢修(battlefield damage assessment and repair,BDAR)行动仿真训练评估中的指标融合问题,提出基于改进功效系数法的战场抢修行动训练定量指标评估模型。以行动准备阶段的工作计划拟制能力为研究对象,分析相应的定量和...针对分队级战场抢修(battlefield damage assessment and repair,BDAR)行动仿真训练评估中的指标融合问题,提出基于改进功效系数法的战场抢修行动训练定量指标评估模型。以行动准备阶段的工作计划拟制能力为研究对象,分析相应的定量和定性指标参数需求,结合基于D-S证据理论的定性指标评估值确定方法,运用改进后的功效系数法对定量指标评估值进行计算。实例分析结果证明:该评估模型保持了与定性指标评语等级的一致性,为BDAR行动仿真训练评估系统中的指标融合建立了基础,具备有效性和实用性。展开更多
基金supported by National Science and Technology Support Program of China "Research on Assessment Technology of Impact and Risk of Climate Change in Key Fields and ItsApplication"[grant number 2012BAC19B00]National Key Scientific Research Project "Impact and Adaptive Strategy of Social and Economic System to Climate Change"[grant number2012CB955700]+1 种基金Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences "Environmental Pattern Change and Impact in Past One Hundred Years"[grant numberXDA05090307]"Impact of International Trade Policy and Emissions Reduction Policy to China"[Grant numberXDA05150200]
文摘Climate change strongly affected the structure and functions of natural ecosystems,e.g.the vegetation productivity decreased in the Northeast permafrost region due to the higher temperature and less precipitation,whereas in the Tibetan Plateau,the vegetation productivity increased,owing to the improved thermal resource.Climate change led to reduced precipitation in North and Northeast China and thus the reduced surface runoff.The public needs for energy were changed because of climate change,e.g.the shorter heating period in winter.Climate change profoundly influenced human health,pathophoresis and major projects by increasing extreme events,including frequency and magnitude,and causing more serious water shortage.Under the background of climate change,although the improved thermal resources can be helpful for extending the crop growth period,more extreme events may resulted in more instability in agricultural productivity.Not only did climate change indirectly affect the secondary and tertiary industries through the impacts on agriculture and natural resources,but also climate change mitigation measures,such as carbon tax,tariff and trading,had extensive and profound influences on the socioeconomic system.Further analysis indicated that the impact of climate change presented significant regional differences.The impact had its pros and cons,while the advantages outweighed the disadvantages.Based on the above analysis on the impacts of climate change,we put forward suggestions on coping with climate change.First,scientifically dealing with climate change will need to seek advantages while avoiding the disadvantages of climate change in order to achieve the orderly adaptation to climate change,which is characterized with"Overall best,long-term benefit."Second,quantitative adaptation should be given more attention,e.g.proposing operational schemes and predictable goals and using uncertainty analysis on adaptation measures.Third,more active coping strategy should be adopted to enhance China's future comprehensive competitiveness.The strategies include but are not limited to gradually adjusting the industrial structure,intensifying the research and development(R&D)of emission reduction technology and actively responding to the influence of carbon tax,tariff and trading on socioeconomic development in China.
文摘针对分队级战场抢修(battlefield damage assessment and repair,BDAR)行动仿真训练评估中的指标融合问题,提出基于改进功效系数法的战场抢修行动训练定量指标评估模型。以行动准备阶段的工作计划拟制能力为研究对象,分析相应的定量和定性指标参数需求,结合基于D-S证据理论的定性指标评估值确定方法,运用改进后的功效系数法对定量指标评估值进行计算。实例分析结果证明:该评估模型保持了与定性指标评语等级的一致性,为BDAR行动仿真训练评估系统中的指标融合建立了基础,具备有效性和实用性。
