To better capture the characteristics of asymmetry and structural fluctuations observed in count time series,this study delves into the application of the quantile regression(QR)method for analyzing and forecasting no...To better capture the characteristics of asymmetry and structural fluctuations observed in count time series,this study delves into the application of the quantile regression(QR)method for analyzing and forecasting nonlinear integer-valued time series exhibiting a piecewise phenomenon.Specifically,we focus on the parameter estimation in the first-order Self-Exciting Threshold Integer-valued Autoregressive(SETINAR(2,1))process with symmetry,asymmetry,and contaminated innovations.We establish the asymptotic properties of the estimator under certain regularity conditions.Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate the superior performance of the QR method compared to the conditional least squares(CLS)approach.Furthermore,we validate the robustness of the proposed method through empirical quantile regression estimation and forecasting for larceny incidents and CAD drug call counts in Pittsburgh,showcasing its effectiveness across diverse levels of data heterogeneity.展开更多
This study examines the return connectedness between decentralized finance(DeFi)’s and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN)stock markets using the quantile vector autoregressive framework,which allows us...This study examines the return connectedness between decentralized finance(DeFi)’s and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN)stock markets using the quantile vector autoregressive framework,which allows us to investigate the connectedness at conditional quantiles.Our sample includes four major DeFi’s and six ASEAN stock markets,spanning from March 2018 to December 2022.The static results indicate a moderate level of return transmission between the system at mean and median quantile.This propagation increases substantially under extreme market conditions,establishing an asymmetric transmission across quantiles.Despite being a relatively new asset class,DeFi dominates the equity market and acts as the primary shock transmitter to the system in most instances.The dynamic analysis reveals that total system connectedness fluctuates over time and quantiles.The total system connectedness peaked during the COVID-19 and the Russia–Ukraine conflict period,indicating the impact of global events on system transmission.The optimal weight and hedge ratio estimated using the DCC-GARCH model indicate that DeFi is beneficial for portfolio construction and risk management.The rising trend in dynamic optimal weight and hedge ratio during the COVID-19 pandemic demonstrates that investors should decrease their investments in DeFi and increase hedging costs.Therefore,portfolio managers and investors should readjust their portfolio allocation in a timely manner according to different market states to build additional effective hedging and diversification strategies to avoid large losses and to reduce portfolio risk exposure.展开更多
Branch size is a crucial characteristic,closely linked to both tree growth and wood quality.A review of existing branch size models reveals various approaches,but the ability to estimate branch diameter and length wit...Branch size is a crucial characteristic,closely linked to both tree growth and wood quality.A review of existing branch size models reveals various approaches,but the ability to estimate branch diameter and length within the same whorl remains underexplored.In this study,a total of 77 trees were sampled from Northeast China to model the vertical distribution of branch diameter and length within each whorl along the crown.Several commonly used functions were taken as the alternative model forms,and the quantile regression method was employed and compared with the classical two-step modeling approach.The analysis incorporated stand,tree,and competition factors,with a particular focus on how these factors influence branches of varying sizes.The modified Weibull function was chosen as the optimal model,due to its excellent performance across all quantiles.Eight quantile regression curves(ranging from 0.20 to 0.85)were combined to predict branch diameter,while seven curves(ranging from 0.20 to 0.80)were used for branch length.The results showed that the quantile regression method outperformed the classical approach at model fitting and validation,likely due to its ability to estimate different rates of change across the entire branch size distribution.Lager branches in each whorl were more sensitive to changes in DBH,crown length(CL),crown ratio(CR)and dominant tree height(H_(dom)),while slenderness(HDR)more effectively influenced small and medium-sized branches.The effect of stand basal area(BAS)was relatively consistent across different branch sizes.The findings indicate that quantile regression is a good way not only a more accurate method for predicting branch size but also a valuable tool for understanding how branch growth responds to stand and tree factors.The models developed in this study are prepared to be further integrated into tree growth and yield simulation system,contributing to the assessment and promotion of wood quality.展开更多
In clinical research,subgroup analysis can help identify patient groups that respond better or worse to specific treatments,improve therapeutic effect and safety,and is of great significance in precision medicine.This...In clinical research,subgroup analysis can help identify patient groups that respond better or worse to specific treatments,improve therapeutic effect and safety,and is of great significance in precision medicine.This article considers subgroup analysis methods for longitudinal data containing multiple covariates and biomarkers.We divide subgroups based on whether a linear combination of these biomarkers exceeds a predetermined threshold,and assess the heterogeneity of treatment effects across subgroups using the interaction between subgroups and exposure variables.Quantile regression is used to better characterize the global distribution of the response variable and sparsity penalties are imposed to achieve variable selection of covariates and biomarkers.The effectiveness of our proposed methodology for both variable selection and parameter estimation is verified through random simulations.Finally,we demonstrate the application of this method by analyzing data from the PA.3 trial,further illustrating the practicality of the method proposed in this paper.展开更多
This paper studies how the price movements of pork,chicken and egg respond to those of related cost factors in short terms in Chinese market.We employ a linear quantile approach not only to explore potential data hete...This paper studies how the price movements of pork,chicken and egg respond to those of related cost factors in short terms in Chinese market.We employ a linear quantile approach not only to explore potential data heteroscedasticity but also to generate confidence bands for the purpose of price stability study.We then evaluate our models by comparing the prediction intervals generated from the quantile regression models with in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts.Using monthly data from January 2000 to October 2010,we observed these findings：（i） the price changes of cost factors asymmetrically and unequally influence those of the livestock across different quantiles;（ii） the performance of our models is robust and consistent for both in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts;（iii） the confidence intervals generated from 0.05th and 0.95th quantile regression models are good methods to forecast livestock price fluctuation.展开更多
Classic maximum entropy quantile function method （CMEQFM） based on the probability weighted moments （PWMs） can accurately estimate the quantile function of random variable on small samples, but inaccurately on the...Classic maximum entropy quantile function method （CMEQFM） based on the probability weighted moments （PWMs） can accurately estimate the quantile function of random variable on small samples, but inaccurately on the very small samples. To overcome this weakness, least square maximum entropy quantile function method （LSMEQFM） and that with constraint condition （LSMEQFMCC） are proposed. To improve the confidence level of quantile function estimation, scatter factor method is combined with maximum entropy method to estimate the confidence interval of quantile function. From the comparisons of these methods about two common probability distributions and one engineering application, it is showed that CMEQFM can estimate the quantile function accurately on the small samples but inaccurately on the very small samples （10 samples）; LSMEQFM and LSMEQFMCC can be successfully applied to the very small samples; with consideration of the constraint condition on quantile function, LSMEQFMCC is more stable and computationally accurate than LSMEQFM; scatter factor confidence interval estimation method based on LSMEQFM or LSMEQFMCC has good estimation accuracy on the confidence interval of quantile function, and that based on LSMEQFMCC is the most stable and accurate method on the very small samples （10 samples）.展开更多
Based on two kinds of proxy data, a tree-ring width chronology at Huashan and the wetness/dryness grade series around Xi'an in north-centralChina, thes presat study demonstrates how different types of proxy climat...Based on two kinds of proxy data, a tree-ring width chronology at Huashan and the wetness/dryness grade series around Xi'an in north-centralChina, thes presat study demonstrates how different types of proxy climaterecords can be combined to give a more reliable estimate of past climate thaneither record can be done individually. With comparison and correction of thetwo data sets, various statistical models can be developed from individual andcombined senes. Among them, the best combined model produced by theconditional quantile adjustmat method can be selected for reconstruction ofApril-July rainfall at Huashan back to 1600 A.D.展开更多
The empirical likelihood is used to propose a new class of quantile estimators in the presence of some auxiliary information under positively associated samples. It is shown that the proposed quantile estimators are a...The empirical likelihood is used to propose a new class of quantile estimators in the presence of some auxiliary information under positively associated samples. It is shown that the proposed quantile estimators are asymptotically normally distributed with smaller asymptotic variances than those of the usual quantile estimators.展开更多
A kernel-type estimator of the quantile function Q（p） = inf{t：F（t） ≥ p}, 0 ≤ p ≤ 1, is proposed based on the kernel smoother when the data are subjected to random truncation. The Bahadur-type representations o...A kernel-type estimator of the quantile function Q（p） = inf{t：F（t） ≥ p}, 0 ≤ p ≤ 1, is proposed based on the kernel smoother when the data are subjected to random truncation. The Bahadur-type representations of the kernel smooth estimator are established, and from Bahadur representations the authors can show that this estimator is strongly consistent, asymptotically normal, and weakly convergent.展开更多
Quantile regression（QR） is proposed to examine the relationships between large-scale atmospheric variables and all parts of the distribution of daily precipitation amount at Beijing Station from 1960 to 2008. QR is ...Quantile regression（QR） is proposed to examine the relationships between large-scale atmospheric variables and all parts of the distribution of daily precipitation amount at Beijing Station from 1960 to 2008. QR is also applied to evaluate the relationship between large-scale predictors and extreme precipitation（90th quantile） at 238 stations in northern China.Finally, QR is used to fit observed daily precipitation amounts for wet days at four sample stations. Results show that meridional wind and specific humidity at both 850 h Pa and 500 h Pa（V850, SH850, V500, and SH500） strongly affect all parts of the Beijing precipitation distribution during the wet season（April–September）. Meridional wind, zonal wind, and specific humidity at only 850 h Pa（V850, U850, SH850） are significantly related to the precipitation distribution in the dry season（October–March）. Impacts of these large-scale predictors on the daily precipitation amount with higher quantile become stronger, whereas their impact on light precipitation is negligible. In addition, SH850 has a strong relationship with wet-season extreme precipitation across the entire region, whereas the impacts of V850, V500, and SH500 are mainly in semi-arid and semi-humid areas. For the dry season, both SH850 and V850 are the major predictors of extreme precipitation in the entire region. Moreover, QR can satisfactorily simulate the daily precipitation amount at each station and for each season, if an optimum distribution family is selected. Therefore, QR is valuable for detecting the relationship between the large-scale predictors and the daily precipitation amount.展开更多
The selection of predictors plays a crucial role in building a multiple regression model. Indeed, the choice of a suitable subset of predictors can help to improve prediction accuracy and interpretation. In this paper...The selection of predictors plays a crucial role in building a multiple regression model. Indeed, the choice of a suitable subset of predictors can help to improve prediction accuracy and interpretation. In this paper, we propose a flexible Bayesian Lasso and adaptive Lasso quantile regression by introducing a hierarchical model framework approach to enable exact inference and shrinkage of an unimportant coefficient to zero. The error distribution is assumed to be an infinite mixture of Gaussian densities. We have theoretically investigated and numerically compared our proposed methods with Flexible Bayesian quantile regression (FBQR), Lasso quantile regression (LQR) and quantile regression (QR) methods. Simulations and real data studies are conducted under different settings to assess the performance of the proposed methods. The proposed methods perform well in comparison to the other methods in terms of median mean squared error, mean and variance of the absolute correlation criterions. We believe that the proposed methods are useful practically.展开更多
A number of recent studies have examined trends in extreme temperature indices using a linear regression model based on ordinary least-squares. In this study, quantile regression was, for the first time, applied to ex...A number of recent studies have examined trends in extreme temperature indices using a linear regression model based on ordinary least-squares. In this study, quantile regression was, for the first time, applied to examine the trends not only in the mean but also in all parts of the distribution of several extreme temperature indices in China for the period 1960–2008. For China as a whole, the slopes in almost all the quantiles of the distribution showed a notable increase in the numbers of warm days and warm nights, and a significant decrease in the number of cool nights. These changes became much faster as the quantile increased. However, although the number of cool days exhibited a significant decrease in the mean trend estimated by classical linear regression, there was no obvious trend in the upper and lower quantiles. This finding suggests that examining the trends in different parts of the distribution of the time-series is of great importance. The spatial distribution of the trend in the 90 th quantile indicated that there was a pronounced increase in the numbers of warm days and warm nights, and a decrease in the number of cool nights for most of China, but especially in the northern and western parts of China, while there was no significant change for the number of cool days at almost all the stations.展开更多
In this paper, we propose the double-penalized quantile regression estimators in partially linear models. An iterative algorithm is proposed for solving the proposed optimization problem. Some numerical examples illus...In this paper, we propose the double-penalized quantile regression estimators in partially linear models. An iterative algorithm is proposed for solving the proposed optimization problem. Some numerical examples illustrate that the finite sample performances of proposed method perform better than the least squares based method with regard to the non-causal selection rate (NSR) and the median of model error (MME) when the error distribution is heavy-tail. Finally, we apply the proposed methodology to analyze the ragweed pollen level dataset.展开更多
The composite quantile regression should provide estimation efficiency gain over a single quantile regression. In this paper, we extend composite quantile regression to nonparametric model with random censored data. T...The composite quantile regression should provide estimation efficiency gain over a single quantile regression. In this paper, we extend composite quantile regression to nonparametric model with random censored data. The asymptotic normality of the proposed estimator is established. The proposed methods are applied to the lung cancer data. Extensive simulations are reported, showing that the proposed method works well in practical settings.展开更多
Bayesian quantile regression has drawn more attention in widespread applications recently. Yu and Moyeed (2001) proposed an asymmetric Laplace distribution to provide likelihood based mechanism for Bayesian inference ...Bayesian quantile regression has drawn more attention in widespread applications recently. Yu and Moyeed (2001) proposed an asymmetric Laplace distribution to provide likelihood based mechanism for Bayesian inference of quantile regression models. In this work, the primary objective is to evaluate the performance of Bayesian quantile regression compared with simple regression and quantile regression through simulation and with application to a crime dataset from 50 USA states for assessing the effect of potential risk factors on the violent crime rate. This paper also explores improper priors, and conducts sensitivity analysis on the parameter estimates. The data analysis reveals that the percent of population that are single parents always has a significant positive influence on violent crimes occurrence, and Bayesian quantile regression provides more comprehensive statistical description of this association.展开更多
This paper provides a selective review of the recent developments on econometric/statistical modeling in quantile treatment effects under both selection on observables and on unobservables.First,we discuss identificat...This paper provides a selective review of the recent developments on econometric/statistical modeling in quantile treatment effects under both selection on observables and on unobservables.First,we discuss identification,estimation and inference of quantile treatment effects under the framework of selection on observables.Then,we consider the case where the treatment variable is endogenous or self-selected,for which an instrumental variable method provides a powerful tool to tackle this problem.Finally,some extensions are discussed to the data-rich environments,to the regression discontinuity design,and some other approaches to identify quantile treatment effects are also discussed.In particular,some future research works in this area are addressed.展开更多
The freshness and quality indices of whiting (Merlangius merlangus) influenced by a large number of chemical volatile compounds, are here analyzed in order to select the most relevant compounds as predictors for these...The freshness and quality indices of whiting (Merlangius merlangus) influenced by a large number of chemical volatile compounds, are here analyzed in order to select the most relevant compounds as predictors for these indices. The selection process was performed by means of recent statistical variable selection methods, namely robust model-free feature screening, based on quantile correlation and composite quantile correlation. On the one hand, compounds 2-Methyl-1-butanol, 3-Methyl-1-butanol, Ethanol, Trimethylamine, 3-Methyl butanal, 2-Methyl-1-propanol, Ethylacetate, 1-Butanol and 2,3-Butanedione were identified as major predictors for the freshness index and on the other hand, compounds 3-Methyl-1-butanol, 2-Methyl-1- butanol, Ethanol, 3-Methyl butanal, 3-Hydroxy-2-butanone, 1-Butanol, 2,3-Butane- dione, 3-Pentanol, 3-Pentanone and 2-Methyl-1-propanol were identified as major predictors for the quality index.展开更多
基金supported by Social Science Planning Foundation of Liaoning Province(Grand No.L22ZD065)National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grand Nos.12271231,1247012719,12001229)。
文摘To better capture the characteristics of asymmetry and structural fluctuations observed in count time series,this study delves into the application of the quantile regression(QR)method for analyzing and forecasting nonlinear integer-valued time series exhibiting a piecewise phenomenon.Specifically,we focus on the parameter estimation in the first-order Self-Exciting Threshold Integer-valued Autoregressive(SETINAR(2,1))process with symmetry,asymmetry,and contaminated innovations.We establish the asymptotic properties of the estimator under certain regularity conditions.Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate the superior performance of the QR method compared to the conditional least squares(CLS)approach.Furthermore,we validate the robustness of the proposed method through empirical quantile regression estimation and forecasting for larceny incidents and CAD drug call counts in Pittsburgh,showcasing its effectiveness across diverse levels of data heterogeneity.
文摘This study examines the return connectedness between decentralized finance(DeFi)’s and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN)stock markets using the quantile vector autoregressive framework,which allows us to investigate the connectedness at conditional quantiles.Our sample includes four major DeFi’s and six ASEAN stock markets,spanning from March 2018 to December 2022.The static results indicate a moderate level of return transmission between the system at mean and median quantile.This propagation increases substantially under extreme market conditions,establishing an asymmetric transmission across quantiles.Despite being a relatively new asset class,DeFi dominates the equity market and acts as the primary shock transmitter to the system in most instances.The dynamic analysis reveals that total system connectedness fluctuates over time and quantiles.The total system connectedness peaked during the COVID-19 and the Russia–Ukraine conflict period,indicating the impact of global events on system transmission.The optimal weight and hedge ratio estimated using the DCC-GARCH model indicate that DeFi is beneficial for portfolio construction and risk management.The rising trend in dynamic optimal weight and hedge ratio during the COVID-19 pandemic demonstrates that investors should decrease their investments in DeFi and increase hedging costs.Therefore,portfolio managers and investors should readjust their portfolio allocation in a timely manner according to different market states to build additional effective hedging and diversification strategies to avoid large losses and to reduce portfolio risk exposure.
基金supported by the Young Scientists Fund of the National Key R&D Program of China(No.2022YFD2201800)the Youth Science Fund Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.32301581)+2 种基金the Joint Funds for Regional Innovation and Development of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.U21A20244)the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(No.2024M750383)the Heilongjiang Touyan Innovation Team Program(Technology Development Team for High-Efficiency Silviculture of Forest Resources).
文摘Branch size is a crucial characteristic,closely linked to both tree growth and wood quality.A review of existing branch size models reveals various approaches,but the ability to estimate branch diameter and length within the same whorl remains underexplored.In this study,a total of 77 trees were sampled from Northeast China to model the vertical distribution of branch diameter and length within each whorl along the crown.Several commonly used functions were taken as the alternative model forms,and the quantile regression method was employed and compared with the classical two-step modeling approach.The analysis incorporated stand,tree,and competition factors,with a particular focus on how these factors influence branches of varying sizes.The modified Weibull function was chosen as the optimal model,due to its excellent performance across all quantiles.Eight quantile regression curves(ranging from 0.20 to 0.85)were combined to predict branch diameter,while seven curves(ranging from 0.20 to 0.80)were used for branch length.The results showed that the quantile regression method outperformed the classical approach at model fitting and validation,likely due to its ability to estimate different rates of change across the entire branch size distribution.Lager branches in each whorl were more sensitive to changes in DBH,crown length(CL),crown ratio(CR)and dominant tree height(H_(dom)),while slenderness(HDR)more effectively influenced small and medium-sized branches.The effect of stand basal area(BAS)was relatively consistent across different branch sizes.The findings indicate that quantile regression is a good way not only a more accurate method for predicting branch size but also a valuable tool for understanding how branch growth responds to stand and tree factors.The models developed in this study are prepared to be further integrated into tree growth and yield simulation system,contributing to the assessment and promotion of wood quality.
基金Supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Fujian Province(2022J011177,2024J01903)the Key Project of Fujian Provincial Education Department(JZ230054)。
文摘In clinical research,subgroup analysis can help identify patient groups that respond better or worse to specific treatments,improve therapeutic effect and safety,and is of great significance in precision medicine.This article considers subgroup analysis methods for longitudinal data containing multiple covariates and biomarkers.We divide subgroups based on whether a linear combination of these biomarkers exceeds a predetermined threshold,and assess the heterogeneity of treatment effects across subgroups using the interaction between subgroups and exposure variables.Quantile regression is used to better characterize the global distribution of the response variable and sparsity penalties are imposed to achieve variable selection of covariates and biomarkers.The effectiveness of our proposed methodology for both variable selection and parameter estimation is verified through random simulations.Finally,we demonstrate the application of this method by analyzing data from the PA.3 trial,further illustrating the practicality of the method proposed in this paper.
基金supported by the Key Project of National Key Technology R&D Program of China(2009BADA9B01)
文摘This paper studies how the price movements of pork,chicken and egg respond to those of related cost factors in short terms in Chinese market.We employ a linear quantile approach not only to explore potential data heteroscedasticity but also to generate confidence bands for the purpose of price stability study.We then evaluate our models by comparing the prediction intervals generated from the quantile regression models with in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts.Using monthly data from January 2000 to October 2010,we observed these findings：（i） the price changes of cost factors asymmetrically and unequally influence those of the livestock across different quantiles;（ii） the performance of our models is robust and consistent for both in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts;（iii） the confidence intervals generated from 0.05th and 0.95th quantile regression models are good methods to forecast livestock price fluctuation.
文摘Classic maximum entropy quantile function method （CMEQFM） based on the probability weighted moments （PWMs） can accurately estimate the quantile function of random variable on small samples, but inaccurately on the very small samples. To overcome this weakness, least square maximum entropy quantile function method （LSMEQFM） and that with constraint condition （LSMEQFMCC） are proposed. To improve the confidence level of quantile function estimation, scatter factor method is combined with maximum entropy method to estimate the confidence interval of quantile function. From the comparisons of these methods about two common probability distributions and one engineering application, it is showed that CMEQFM can estimate the quantile function accurately on the small samples but inaccurately on the very small samples （10 samples）; LSMEQFM and LSMEQFMCC can be successfully applied to the very small samples; with consideration of the constraint condition on quantile function, LSMEQFMCC is more stable and computationally accurate than LSMEQFM; scatter factor confidence interval estimation method based on LSMEQFM or LSMEQFMCC has good estimation accuracy on the confidence interval of quantile function, and that based on LSMEQFMCC is the most stable and accurate method on the very small samples （10 samples）.
文摘Based on two kinds of proxy data, a tree-ring width chronology at Huashan and the wetness/dryness grade series around Xi'an in north-centralChina, thes presat study demonstrates how different types of proxy climaterecords can be combined to give a more reliable estimate of past climate thaneither record can be done individually. With comparison and correction of thetwo data sets, various statistical models can be developed from individual andcombined senes. Among them, the best combined model produced by theconditional quantile adjustmat method can be selected for reconstruction ofApril-July rainfall at Huashan back to 1600 A.D.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(11271088,11361011,11201088)the Natural Science Foundation of Guangxi(2013GXNSFAA019004,2013GXNSFAA019007,2013GXNSFBA019001)
文摘The empirical likelihood is used to propose a new class of quantile estimators in the presence of some auxiliary information under positively associated samples. It is shown that the proposed quantile estimators are asymptotically normally distributed with smaller asymptotic variances than those of the usual quantile estimators.
基金Zhou's research was partially supported by the NNSF of China (10471140, 10571169)Wu's research was partially supported by NNSF of China (0571170)
文摘A kernel-type estimator of the quantile function Q（p） = inf{t：F（t） ≥ p}, 0 ≤ p ≤ 1, is proposed based on the kernel smoother when the data are subjected to random truncation. The Bahadur-type representations of the kernel smooth estimator are established, and from Bahadur representations the authors can show that this estimator is strongly consistent, asymptotically normal, and weakly convergent.
基金jointly sponsored by the National Basic Research Program of China "973" Program (Grant No. 2012CB956203)the Knowledge Innovation Project (Grant No. KZCX2-EW-202)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 91325108 and 51339004)
文摘Quantile regression（QR） is proposed to examine the relationships between large-scale atmospheric variables and all parts of the distribution of daily precipitation amount at Beijing Station from 1960 to 2008. QR is also applied to evaluate the relationship between large-scale predictors and extreme precipitation（90th quantile） at 238 stations in northern China.Finally, QR is used to fit observed daily precipitation amounts for wet days at four sample stations. Results show that meridional wind and specific humidity at both 850 h Pa and 500 h Pa（V850, SH850, V500, and SH500） strongly affect all parts of the Beijing precipitation distribution during the wet season（April–September）. Meridional wind, zonal wind, and specific humidity at only 850 h Pa（V850, U850, SH850） are significantly related to the precipitation distribution in the dry season（October–March）. Impacts of these large-scale predictors on the daily precipitation amount with higher quantile become stronger, whereas their impact on light precipitation is negligible. In addition, SH850 has a strong relationship with wet-season extreme precipitation across the entire region, whereas the impacts of V850, V500, and SH500 are mainly in semi-arid and semi-humid areas. For the dry season, both SH850 and V850 are the major predictors of extreme precipitation in the entire region. Moreover, QR can satisfactorily simulate the daily precipitation amount at each station and for each season, if an optimum distribution family is selected. Therefore, QR is valuable for detecting the relationship between the large-scale predictors and the daily precipitation amount.
文摘The selection of predictors plays a crucial role in building a multiple regression model. Indeed, the choice of a suitable subset of predictors can help to improve prediction accuracy and interpretation. In this paper, we propose a flexible Bayesian Lasso and adaptive Lasso quantile regression by introducing a hierarchical model framework approach to enable exact inference and shrinkage of an unimportant coefficient to zero. The error distribution is assumed to be an infinite mixture of Gaussian densities. We have theoretically investigated and numerically compared our proposed methods with Flexible Bayesian quantile regression (FBQR), Lasso quantile regression (LQR) and quantile regression (QR) methods. Simulations and real data studies are conducted under different settings to assess the performance of the proposed methods. The proposed methods perform well in comparison to the other methods in terms of median mean squared error, mean and variance of the absolute correlation criterions. We believe that the proposed methods are useful practically.
基金sponsored by the National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program, Grant No. 2012CB956203)the Knowledge Innovation Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. KZCX2-EW-202)the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. XDA05090100)
文摘A number of recent studies have examined trends in extreme temperature indices using a linear regression model based on ordinary least-squares. In this study, quantile regression was, for the first time, applied to examine the trends not only in the mean but also in all parts of the distribution of several extreme temperature indices in China for the period 1960–2008. For China as a whole, the slopes in almost all the quantiles of the distribution showed a notable increase in the numbers of warm days and warm nights, and a significant decrease in the number of cool nights. These changes became much faster as the quantile increased. However, although the number of cool days exhibited a significant decrease in the mean trend estimated by classical linear regression, there was no obvious trend in the upper and lower quantiles. This finding suggests that examining the trends in different parts of the distribution of the time-series is of great importance. The spatial distribution of the trend in the 90 th quantile indicated that there was a pronounced increase in the numbers of warm days and warm nights, and a decrease in the number of cool nights for most of China, but especially in the northern and western parts of China, while there was no significant change for the number of cool days at almost all the stations.
文摘In this paper, we propose the double-penalized quantile regression estimators in partially linear models. An iterative algorithm is proposed for solving the proposed optimization problem. Some numerical examples illustrate that the finite sample performances of proposed method perform better than the least squares based method with regard to the non-causal selection rate (NSR) and the median of model error (MME) when the error distribution is heavy-tail. Finally, we apply the proposed methodology to analyze the ragweed pollen level dataset.
文摘The composite quantile regression should provide estimation efficiency gain over a single quantile regression. In this paper, we extend composite quantile regression to nonparametric model with random censored data. The asymptotic normality of the proposed estimator is established. The proposed methods are applied to the lung cancer data. Extensive simulations are reported, showing that the proposed method works well in practical settings.
文摘Bayesian quantile regression has drawn more attention in widespread applications recently. Yu and Moyeed (2001) proposed an asymmetric Laplace distribution to provide likelihood based mechanism for Bayesian inference of quantile regression models. In this work, the primary objective is to evaluate the performance of Bayesian quantile regression compared with simple regression and quantile regression through simulation and with application to a crime dataset from 50 USA states for assessing the effect of potential risk factors on the violent crime rate. This paper also explores improper priors, and conducts sensitivity analysis on the parameter estimates. The data analysis reveals that the percent of population that are single parents always has a significant positive influence on violent crimes occurrence, and Bayesian quantile regression provides more comprehensive statistical description of this association.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China#71631004(Key Project)the National Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars#71625001the scholarship from China Scholarship Council(CSC)under the Grant CSC N201806310088.
文摘This paper provides a selective review of the recent developments on econometric/statistical modeling in quantile treatment effects under both selection on observables and on unobservables.First,we discuss identification,estimation and inference of quantile treatment effects under the framework of selection on observables.Then,we consider the case where the treatment variable is endogenous or self-selected,for which an instrumental variable method provides a powerful tool to tackle this problem.Finally,some extensions are discussed to the data-rich environments,to the regression discontinuity design,and some other approaches to identify quantile treatment effects are also discussed.In particular,some future research works in this area are addressed.
文摘The freshness and quality indices of whiting (Merlangius merlangus) influenced by a large number of chemical volatile compounds, are here analyzed in order to select the most relevant compounds as predictors for these indices. The selection process was performed by means of recent statistical variable selection methods, namely robust model-free feature screening, based on quantile correlation and composite quantile correlation. On the one hand, compounds 2-Methyl-1-butanol, 3-Methyl-1-butanol, Ethanol, Trimethylamine, 3-Methyl butanal, 2-Methyl-1-propanol, Ethylacetate, 1-Butanol and 2,3-Butanedione were identified as major predictors for the freshness index and on the other hand, compounds 3-Methyl-1-butanol, 2-Methyl-1- butanol, Ethanol, 3-Methyl butanal, 3-Hydroxy-2-butanone, 1-Butanol, 2,3-Butane- dione, 3-Pentanol, 3-Pentanone and 2-Methyl-1-propanol were identified as major predictors for the quality index.
