Projections of future urban land change are essential for a range of sustainability assessments,including those related to biodiversity loss,carbon emissions,and agricultural land conversion.However,to what extent and...Projections of future urban land change are essential for a range of sustainability assessments,including those related to biodiversity loss,carbon emissions,and agricultural land conversion.However,to what extent and where current projections agree or disagree remains unknown.Here,we systematically compare existing global projections that are consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways.We find that the total global urban land area is expected to increase by 112%between 2020 and 2100(averaged across all projections),with a coefficient of variation of 0.81.This variation is mostly caused by the selection of the underlying drivers that are included in the different models.Regionally,the highest average growth rates are found in sub-Saharan Africa(+679%to+730%),while this region also has the highest variation across projections(coefficient of variation ranging from 2.02 to 2.18).When ranking scenarios within a study from the highest to the lowest projected increase in urban land,rankings are relatively similar for regions in the Global North,but not for regions in the Global South.The large disagreement across projections can lead to high uncertainties in assessments of future urban land change impacts,which can undermine the effectiveness of long-term planning,policymaking,and resource management decisions.展开更多
Climate models are essential for understanding past,present,and future changes in atmospheric circulation,with circulation modes providing key sources of seasonal predictability and prediction uncertainties for both g...Climate models are essential for understanding past,present,and future changes in atmospheric circulation,with circulation modes providing key sources of seasonal predictability and prediction uncertainties for both global and regional climates.This study assesses the performance of models participating in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project in simulating interannual variability modes of Northern Hemisphere 500-hPa geopotential height during winter and summer,distinguishing predictable(potentially predictable on seasonal or longer timescales)and unpredictable(intraseasonal and essentially unpredictable at long range)components,using reanalysis data and a variance decomposition method.Although most models effectively capture unpredictable modes in reanalysis,their ability to reproduce dominant predictable modes-specifically the Pacific-North American pattern,Arctic Oscillation,and Western Pacific Oscillation in winter,and the East Atlantic and North Atlantic Oscillations in summer-varies notably.An optimal ensemble is identified to distinguish(a)predictable-external modes,dominated by external forcing,and(b)predictable-internal modes,associated with slow internal variability,during the historical period(1950-2014)and the SSP5-8.5 scenario(2036-2100).Under increased radiative forcing,the leading winter/summer predictable-external mode exhibits a more uniform spatial distribution,remarkably larger trend and annual variance,and enhanced height-sea surface temperature(SST)covariance under SSP5-8.5 compared to historical conditions.The dominant winter/summer predictable-internal modes also exhibit increased variance and height-SST covariance under SSP5-8.5,along with localized changes in spatial configuration.Minimal changes are observed in spatial distribution or variance for dominant winter/summer unpredictable modes under SSP5-8.5.This study,from a predictive perspective,deepens our understanding of model uncertainties and projected changes in circulations.展开更多
Dear Editor,Serotonin(5-HT),a pivotal neuromodulator,plays a central role in the social impairments characteristic of autism spectrum disorder(ASD).Clinical evidence reveals elevated blood 5-HT levels and reduced sero...Dear Editor,Serotonin(5-HT),a pivotal neuromodulator,plays a central role in the social impairments characteristic of autism spectrum disorder(ASD).Clinical evidence reveals elevated blood 5-HT levels and reduced serotonin transporter(5-HTT)availability in ASD patients[1],implicating serotonergic dysregulation in social behavior.展开更多
背景:近年来,生物陶瓷材料因具有良好的生物相容性和封闭性能逐渐成为根尖倒充填的首选材料,其中生物陶瓷材料C-Root BP、iRoot BP Plus均具有良好的生物相容性和封闭性能。目的:对比体外环境下C-Root BP与iRoot BP Plus材料的根尖封闭...背景:近年来,生物陶瓷材料因具有良好的生物相容性和封闭性能逐渐成为根尖倒充填的首选材料,其中生物陶瓷材料C-Root BP、iRoot BP Plus均具有良好的生物相容性和封闭性能。目的:对比体外环境下C-Root BP与iRoot BP Plus材料的根尖封闭性能及抗力强度。方法:于2022年6月至2024年6月期间,收集石家庄市第二医院口腔科因正畸或牙周病新鲜拔除的单根离体牙56颗,随机分4组处理:iRoot BP Plus组(n=16)、C-Root BP组(n=16)根管预备和消毒后分别采用iRoot BP Plus、C-Root BP材料进行根尖倒充填,阳性对照组(n=16)根管预备和消毒后使用蒸馏水进行根尖倒充填,阴性对照组(n=8)仅行根管预备和消毒(不进行根尖倒充填处理),采用染料渗透法检测根尖封闭性;制作根管细菌渗漏体外模型,评价细菌微渗漏发生情况;采用薄片推出实验检测填充材料与牙本质之间的粘连强度,并在显微镜下观察断裂形式。结果与结论:(1)染料染色7 d后,阳性对照组染料渗透长度大于iRoot BP Plus组、C-Root BP组(P<0.05),iRoot BP Plus组和C-Root BP组染料渗透长度比较差异无显著性意义(P>0.05);(2)经过90 d培养,阳性对照组细菌微渗漏发生率高于iRoot BP Plus组、C-Root BP组(P<0.05),iRoot BPPlus组和C-Root BP组细菌微渗漏发生率比较差异无显著性意义(P>0.05);(3)C-Root BP组填充材料与牙本质之间的粘连强度大于iRootBP Plus组(P<0.05),两组断裂面断裂形式比较差异无显著性意义(P>0.05);(4)结果表明,采用C-Root BP和iRoot BP Plus材料进行根尖倒充填可产生相似的根尖封闭效果,并且断裂形式也基本一致,但C-Root BP材料具有良好的粘连强度。展开更多
基金supported by the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research NWO in the form of a VIDI grant(Grant No.VI.Vidi.198.008).
文摘Projections of future urban land change are essential for a range of sustainability assessments,including those related to biodiversity loss,carbon emissions,and agricultural land conversion.However,to what extent and where current projections agree or disagree remains unknown.Here,we systematically compare existing global projections that are consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways.We find that the total global urban land area is expected to increase by 112%between 2020 and 2100(averaged across all projections),with a coefficient of variation of 0.81.This variation is mostly caused by the selection of the underlying drivers that are included in the different models.Regionally,the highest average growth rates are found in sub-Saharan Africa(+679%to+730%),while this region also has the highest variation across projections(coefficient of variation ranging from 2.02 to 2.18).When ranking scenarios within a study from the highest to the lowest projected increase in urban land,rankings are relatively similar for regions in the Global North,but not for regions in the Global South.The large disagreement across projections can lead to high uncertainties in assessments of future urban land change impacts,which can undermine the effectiveness of long-term planning,policymaking,and resource management decisions.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.U2342210 and 42275043)the National Institute of Natural Hazards,Ministry of Emergency Management of China(Grant Nos.J2223806,ZDJ2024-25 and ZDJ2025-34)。
文摘Climate models are essential for understanding past,present,and future changes in atmospheric circulation,with circulation modes providing key sources of seasonal predictability and prediction uncertainties for both global and regional climates.This study assesses the performance of models participating in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project in simulating interannual variability modes of Northern Hemisphere 500-hPa geopotential height during winter and summer,distinguishing predictable(potentially predictable on seasonal or longer timescales)and unpredictable(intraseasonal and essentially unpredictable at long range)components,using reanalysis data and a variance decomposition method.Although most models effectively capture unpredictable modes in reanalysis,their ability to reproduce dominant predictable modes-specifically the Pacific-North American pattern,Arctic Oscillation,and Western Pacific Oscillation in winter,and the East Atlantic and North Atlantic Oscillations in summer-varies notably.An optimal ensemble is identified to distinguish(a)predictable-external modes,dominated by external forcing,and(b)predictable-internal modes,associated with slow internal variability,during the historical period(1950-2014)and the SSP5-8.5 scenario(2036-2100).Under increased radiative forcing,the leading winter/summer predictable-external mode exhibits a more uniform spatial distribution,remarkably larger trend and annual variance,and enhanced height-sea surface temperature(SST)covariance under SSP5-8.5 compared to historical conditions.The dominant winter/summer predictable-internal modes also exhibit increased variance and height-SST covariance under SSP5-8.5,along with localized changes in spatial configuration.Minimal changes are observed in spatial distribution or variance for dominant winter/summer unpredictable modes under SSP5-8.5.This study,from a predictive perspective,deepens our understanding of model uncertainties and projected changes in circulations.
基金supported by Research Center for Brain Cognition and Human Development,Guangdong,China(2024B0303390003)Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(2023A1515010477)+4 种基金the National Social Science Foundation of China(20&ZD296,CH)Key-Area Research and Development Program of Guangdong Province(2019B030335001)Special Funds for the Cultivation of Guangdong College Students’Scientific and Technological Innovation(“Climbing Program”Special Funds pdjh2024b118)Autism Research Special Fund of Zhejiang Foundation For Disabled Persons(2023003)Scientific Research Innovation Project of Graduate School of South China Normal University(43204021,RZ&CH).
文摘Dear Editor,Serotonin(5-HT),a pivotal neuromodulator,plays a central role in the social impairments characteristic of autism spectrum disorder(ASD).Clinical evidence reveals elevated blood 5-HT levels and reduced serotonin transporter(5-HTT)availability in ASD patients[1],implicating serotonergic dysregulation in social behavior.
文摘背景:近年来,生物陶瓷材料因具有良好的生物相容性和封闭性能逐渐成为根尖倒充填的首选材料,其中生物陶瓷材料C-Root BP、iRoot BP Plus均具有良好的生物相容性和封闭性能。目的:对比体外环境下C-Root BP与iRoot BP Plus材料的根尖封闭性能及抗力强度。方法:于2022年6月至2024年6月期间,收集石家庄市第二医院口腔科因正畸或牙周病新鲜拔除的单根离体牙56颗,随机分4组处理:iRoot BP Plus组(n=16)、C-Root BP组(n=16)根管预备和消毒后分别采用iRoot BP Plus、C-Root BP材料进行根尖倒充填,阳性对照组(n=16)根管预备和消毒后使用蒸馏水进行根尖倒充填,阴性对照组(n=8)仅行根管预备和消毒(不进行根尖倒充填处理),采用染料渗透法检测根尖封闭性;制作根管细菌渗漏体外模型,评价细菌微渗漏发生情况;采用薄片推出实验检测填充材料与牙本质之间的粘连强度,并在显微镜下观察断裂形式。结果与结论:(1)染料染色7 d后,阳性对照组染料渗透长度大于iRoot BP Plus组、C-Root BP组(P<0.05),iRoot BP Plus组和C-Root BP组染料渗透长度比较差异无显著性意义(P>0.05);(2)经过90 d培养,阳性对照组细菌微渗漏发生率高于iRoot BP Plus组、C-Root BP组(P<0.05),iRoot BPPlus组和C-Root BP组细菌微渗漏发生率比较差异无显著性意义(P>0.05);(3)C-Root BP组填充材料与牙本质之间的粘连强度大于iRootBP Plus组(P<0.05),两组断裂面断裂形式比较差异无显著性意义(P>0.05);(4)结果表明,采用C-Root BP和iRoot BP Plus材料进行根尖倒充填可产生相似的根尖封闭效果,并且断裂形式也基本一致,但C-Root BP材料具有良好的粘连强度。
