The new double projecting neurons were found in the cat spinal dorsal horn by the double retrograde fluorescent tracing technique.Fast Blue(FB)was injected into unilateral dorsal column nucleus(DCN)of adult cats anest...The new double projecting neurons were found in the cat spinal dorsal horn by the double retrograde fluorescent tracing technique.Fast Blue(FB)was injected into unilateral dorsal column nucleus(DCN)of adult cats anesthetized with pentobarbital.Nuclear Yellow(NY)was injected ipsilaterally into the lateral cervical nucleus(LCN)8-9 days later.After an additional 18-30 hrs.展开更多
Coded structured light is an accurate, fast 3D measurement approach with high sampling density, of which the encoded fringes are distorted when projected to curved surface. Focused on the demand of encoding, decoding,...Coded structured light is an accurate, fast 3D measurement approach with high sampling density, of which the encoded fringes are distorted when projected to curved surface. Focused on the demand of encoding, decoding, multiview registration and system calibration, we expect to obtain undistorted fringes from camera image. Therefore, in this paper, we analyze the accuracy and sampling density of projecting distortion calibration approach based on control point and fitting surface. Moreover, combining the characteristic of coded structured light system, we design encoded fringe projecting distortion calibration scheme based on simplified encoded structured light model. Primarily, we neglect the minor parameters that affect the calibration in structured light model to reduce complexity. Then, we build the correspondence between camera image points and projector image points and achieve the calibration. Finally, we design evaluation scheme of projecting distortion calibration with parallelism and equal interval, and verify the effectiveness and accuracy of the approach through visual effect and experimental data.展开更多
Spring consecutive rainfall events(CREs) are key triggers of geological hazards in the Three Gorges Reservoir area(TGR), China. However, previous projections of CREs based on the direct outputs of global climate model...Spring consecutive rainfall events(CREs) are key triggers of geological hazards in the Three Gorges Reservoir area(TGR), China. However, previous projections of CREs based on the direct outputs of global climate models(GCMs) are subject to considerable uncertainties, largely caused by their coarse resolution. This study applies a triple-nested WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting) model dynamical downscaling, driven by a GCM, MIROC6(Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, version 6), to improve the historical simulation and reduce the uncertainties in the future projection of CREs in the TGR. Results indicate that WRF has better performances in reproducing the observed rainfall in terms of the daily probability distribution, monthly evolution and duration of rainfall events, demonstrating the ability of WRF in simulating CREs. Thus, the triple-nested WRF is applied to project the future changes of CREs under the middle-of-the-road and fossil-fueled development scenarios. It is indicated that light and moderate rainfall and the duration of continuous rainfall spells will decrease in the TGR, leading to a decrease in the frequency of CREs. Meanwhile, the duration, rainfall amount, and intensity of CREs is projected to regional increase in the central-west TGR. These results are inconsistent with the raw projection of MIROC6. Observational diagnosis implies that CREs are mainly contributed by the vertical moisture advection. Such a synoptic contribution is captured well by WRF, which is not the case in MIROC6,indicating larger uncertainties in the CREs projected by MIROC6.展开更多
Since no consensus has been reached in previous studies about how the summer climate in China will evolve in the first half of the 21st century, this issue is addressed here through sensitivity experiments by forcing ...Since no consensus has been reached in previous studies about how the summer climate in China will evolve in the first half of the 21st century, this issue is addressed here through sensitivity experiments by forcing an atmospheric general circulation model （AGCM）, the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory （GFDL）＇s Atmospheric Model Version 2.0 （AM2） with projected sea surface temperature （SST） trend. A total of two SST trends from the Intergovernmental Panels on Climate Change （IPCC） Special Report on Emissions Scenario （SRES） AlB are used. The two trends are from two coupled climate system models, the National Center for Atmospheric Research （NCAR） Community Climate System Model Version 3.0 （CCSM3） and the GFDL Climate Model Version 2.0 （CM2）, respectively. Results consistently suggest a substantial warming and drying trend over much of China, with a surface air temperature increase of 1.0-2.0℃ and a 10%-20% decrease in rainfall. Exceptions are the areas from northwestern China to western North China as well as the southern Tibetan Plateau, which are projected to be wetter with a rainfall anomaly percentage increase of 10%-50%. The drying in eastern North China has not been documented to date but appears to be reasonable. Physically, it is attributed to anomalous northeasterly winds at the rear of a low-level cyclone over the South China Sea, the Philippines and the subtropical western North Pacific. These conditions, which govern the climate of eastern China, are forced by the northward shift of convection over warm waters due to additional warming.展开更多
The neurons with coexistence of serotonin-and giutamate-immunoreactivity(5-HT/Glu cells)in medullary raphe nuclei were investigated in the present study by using immunofluorescence technique.On the basis or the invest...The neurons with coexistence of serotonin-and giutamate-immunoreactivity(5-HT/Glu cells)in medullary raphe nuclei were investigated in the present study by using immunofluorescence technique.On the basis or the investigation projections of the 5-HT/Glu cells to the cerebellar cortex were studied by means or a combined microsphere retrograde transport.The results showed that most of the 5-HT cells in medullary raphe nuclei exhibited Glu-immunoreactivity.The cell count indicated that 81.77% of the 5-HT cells contained Gin-immunoreactivity;40.35%of the Gin-cells contained 5-HT.The retrograde labeled cells by microspkere(MS cells)were found in all medullary rapke nuclei. 5-HT/MS cells were rare.The Gin/MS cells had a rate in total MS cells(40.31 %).Three trible-labeled cells (5-HT/Glu/MS cells)were found. The finding or the 5-HT/Glu cells in medullary raphe nuclei projecting to the cerebellar cortex may give an iportant significance to understanding the functional connection between medullary raphe nuclei and cerebellum.展开更多
Detailed projections of the Former Soviet Union(FSU)fossil fuel production has been created.Russian production has been modelled at the region(oblast)level where possible.The projections were made using the Geologic R...Detailed projections of the Former Soviet Union(FSU)fossil fuel production has been created.Russian production has been modelled at the region(oblast)level where possible.The projections were made using the Geologic Resource Supply-Demand Model(GeRS-DeMo).Low,Best Guess and High scenarios were created.FSU fossil fuels are projected to peak between 2027 and 2087 with the range due to spread of Ultimately Recoverable Resources(URR)values used.The Best Guess(BG)scenario anticipates FSU will peak in 2087 with production over 170 EJ per year.The FSU projections were combined with rest of the world projections(Mohr et al.2015b),the emissions from the High scenario for the world are similar to the IPCC A1 AIM scenario.展开更多
Objectives: To project health outcomes for the period 2011-2031, in the Portuguese population aged 65 years and over, considering the expected changes in its demographic and educational structure. Methods: Demographic...Objectives: To project health outcomes for the period 2011-2031, in the Portuguese population aged 65 years and over, considering the expected changes in its demographic and educational structure. Methods: Demographic projections were produced using the multistate cohort component method. Logistic regression models were fitted to estimate current differences in health outcomes, using data from the Portuguese Health Survey. Such differences were applied to the projection results, in order to project the prevalence of “poor” self-reported health status, functional limitations and disability. Results: Our results point to a future improvement in the considered health outcomes. The prevalence of “poor” self-reported health status, functional limitations and disability will decrease in both genders, but will continue to be higher among women than men. Discussion: Beyond age and gender, other determinants of health, like education, should be considered when studying the possible evolution of health outcomes in an ageing population.展开更多
Background Despite advancements in tuberculosis(TB)control policies in Brazil,the disease remains a signifcant public health concern.This study aimed to analyze long-term trends and projections of pulmonary tuberculos...Background Despite advancements in tuberculosis(TB)control policies in Brazil,the disease remains a signifcant public health concern.This study aimed to analyze long-term trends and projections of pulmonary tuberculosis(PTB)incidence rates in metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas of Brazil from 2001 to 2035,as well as to quantify the con‑tributions of demographic and epidemiological changes to these patterns.Methods This ecological study used national PTB case notifcation data reported to Brazil’s Notifable Diseases Information System from 2001 to 2020.Joinpoint regression was applied to identify changes in temporal trends.Age-period-cohort models were employed to examine the efects of age,period,and birth cohort on disease risk.A decomposition analysis was then conducted to assess the contributions of population aging,demographic growth,and epidemiological changes.Finally,Bayesian age-period-cohort models were used to project the TB burden through 2035,stratifed by sex and area.Results Between 2001 and 2020,PTB incidence declined by an average of−2.67%(95%CI−3.43,−2.08)per year in metropolitan areas and−2.54%(95%CI−2.92,−2.16)in non-metropolitan areas of Brazil.However,decomposition analysis showed that the absolute number of PTB cases in metropolitan areas increased,primarily driven by popula‑tion growth(+21,610 cases in men;+10,545 in women),with a smaller contribution from population aging(+2649 and+521 cases,respectively).In non-metropolitan areas,reductions were mainly explained by epidemiological improvements(−8314 cases in men;−6663 in women)and population decline(−4972 and−2380 cases,respec‑tively),outweighing the efects of aging.Looking ahead,projections indicate that PTB incidence will rise in metropoli‑tan areas,from 52.6 in 2015 to 62.4[95%credible interval(CrI):37.1-87.8]per 100,000 by 2035,while stabilizing at rela‑tively high levels in non-metropolitan areas,increasing from 28.4 to 33.8 per 100,000(95%CrI:19.3-48.3)among men.Conclusion Metropolitan areas are projected to experience substantial increases in PTB incidence,while non-metropolitan regions are expected to stabilize at persistently high levels,particularly among men.The fndings indicate that current TB control eforts in Brazil need to be strengthened for the country to meet the 2035 targets,especially in metropolitan areas.展开更多
In recent years,the demand for synchronous acquisition of three-dimensional(3D)shape and col-or texture has surged in fields such as cultural heritage preservation and healthcare.Addressing this need,this paper propos...In recent years,the demand for synchronous acquisition of three-dimensional(3D)shape and col-or texture has surged in fields such as cultural heritage preservation and healthcare.Addressing this need,this paper proposes a novel method for simultaneous 3D shape and color texture capture.First,a linear model correlating camera exposure time with grayscale values is established.Through exposure time calibration,the projected red,green and blue(RGB)light and white-light grayscale values captured by a monochrome cam-era are aligned.Then,three sets of color fringes are projected onto the object to identify optimal pixels for 3D reconstruction.And,three pure-color patterns are projected to synthesize the color texture.Experimental res-ults show that this method effectively achieves synchronous 3D shape and color texture acquisition,offering high speed and precision,and avoids color crosstalk interference common in 3D reconstruction of colored ob-jects using a monochrome camera.展开更多
Projections of future urban land change are essential for a range of sustainability assessments,including those related to biodiversity loss,carbon emissions,and agricultural land conversion.However,to what extent and...Projections of future urban land change are essential for a range of sustainability assessments,including those related to biodiversity loss,carbon emissions,and agricultural land conversion.However,to what extent and where current projections agree or disagree remains unknown.Here,we systematically compare existing global projections that are consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways.We find that the total global urban land area is expected to increase by 112%between 2020 and 2100(averaged across all projections),with a coefficient of variation of 0.81.This variation is mostly caused by the selection of the underlying drivers that are included in the different models.Regionally,the highest average growth rates are found in sub-Saharan Africa(+679%to+730%),while this region also has the highest variation across projections(coefficient of variation ranging from 2.02 to 2.18).When ranking scenarios within a study from the highest to the lowest projected increase in urban land,rankings are relatively similar for regions in the Global North,but not for regions in the Global South.The large disagreement across projections can lead to high uncertainties in assessments of future urban land change impacts,which can undermine the effectiveness of long-term planning,policymaking,and resource management decisions.展开更多
Climate models are essential for understanding past,present,and future changes in atmospheric circulation,with circulation modes providing key sources of seasonal predictability and prediction uncertainties for both g...Climate models are essential for understanding past,present,and future changes in atmospheric circulation,with circulation modes providing key sources of seasonal predictability and prediction uncertainties for both global and regional climates.This study assesses the performance of models participating in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project in simulating interannual variability modes of Northern Hemisphere 500-hPa geopotential height during winter and summer,distinguishing predictable(potentially predictable on seasonal or longer timescales)and unpredictable(intraseasonal and essentially unpredictable at long range)components,using reanalysis data and a variance decomposition method.Although most models effectively capture unpredictable modes in reanalysis,their ability to reproduce dominant predictable modes-specifically the Pacific-North American pattern,Arctic Oscillation,and Western Pacific Oscillation in winter,and the East Atlantic and North Atlantic Oscillations in summer-varies notably.An optimal ensemble is identified to distinguish(a)predictable-external modes,dominated by external forcing,and(b)predictable-internal modes,associated with slow internal variability,during the historical period(1950-2014)and the SSP5-8.5 scenario(2036-2100).Under increased radiative forcing,the leading winter/summer predictable-external mode exhibits a more uniform spatial distribution,remarkably larger trend and annual variance,and enhanced height-sea surface temperature(SST)covariance under SSP5-8.5 compared to historical conditions.The dominant winter/summer predictable-internal modes also exhibit increased variance and height-SST covariance under SSP5-8.5,along with localized changes in spatial configuration.Minimal changes are observed in spatial distribution or variance for dominant winter/summer unpredictable modes under SSP5-8.5.This study,from a predictive perspective,deepens our understanding of model uncertainties and projected changes in circulations.展开更多
Purpose-Interface management is the process of managing communications,responsibilities and coordination of project parties,phases or physical entities which are dependent on one another.Interface management is a cruc...Purpose-Interface management is the process of managing communications,responsibilities and coordination of project parties,phases or physical entities which are dependent on one another.Interface management is a crucial part of managing any construction project-but particularly important for high-speed railway projects that often have several contractual parties and stakeholders,very long project timelines and huge upfront cost overlays.This paper discusses how various project interfaces were managed during the design and construction of the civil engineering infrastructure for the High Speed Two(HS2)project in the United Kingdom.Design/methodology/approach-The paper uses the case study methodology.Key interfaces on the HS2 project are grouped into various categories and the paper discusses how they were managed within the Area North Integrated Project Team(IPT)of the HS2 project made up of contractor Balfour Beatty VINCI(BBV),the Mott MacDonald SYSTRA Design Joint Venture(DJV)and client HS2 Ltd.3 different case studies drawn from across the IPT are used,each of them highlighting different interfaces and how these interfaces were managed.Findings-The paper shows how innovative technical designs and modern methods of construction were used to address some of the unique and peculiar challenges of designing a brand-new railway in the United Kingdom.Addressing the contrasting and often competing requirements of different stakeholders,coupled with challenging physical constraints of the very limited land available for the project and the use of a rarely used Act of Parliament in the delivery of the project required different approach to interface management.Collaboration and proactive stakeholder engagement are necessary for successful interface management on megaprojects.The authors posit that adopting an integrated approach to engineering and construction management is an essential ingredient for the successful delivery of high-speed railway projects.Originality/value-With many high-speed railway projects around the world coming up in the next few years,understanding the context and challenges for each country will help engineering and design managers adopt appropriate approaches for their projects.The lessons learned on the HS2 project are also transferable to other mega infrastructure projects with complex project interfaces.展开更多
Global warming induced by increased CO_(2) has caused marked changes in the ocean.Previous estimates of ocean salinity change in response to global warming have considerable ambiguity,largely attributable to the diver...Global warming induced by increased CO_(2) has caused marked changes in the ocean.Previous estimates of ocean salinity change in response to global warming have considerable ambiguity,largely attributable to the diverse sensitivities of surface fluxes.This study utilizes data from the Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project to investigate how ocean salinity responds to perturbations of surface fluxes.The findings indicate the emergence of a sea surface salinity(SSS)dipole pattern predominantly in the North Atlantic and Pacific fresh pools,driven by surface flux perturbations.This results in an intensification of the“salty gets saltier and fresh gets fresher”SSS pattern across the global ocean.The spatial pattern amplification(PA)of SSS under global warming is estimated to be approximately 11.5%,with surface water flux perturbations being the most significant contributor to salinity PA,accounting for 8.1% of the change after 70 years in experiments since pre-industrial control(piControl).Notably,the zonal-depth distribution of salinity in the upper ocean exhibits lighter seawater above the denser water,with bowed isopycnals in the upper 400 m.This stable stratification inhibits vertical mixing of salinity and temperature.In response to the flux perturbations,there is a strong positive feedback due to consequent freshening.It is hypothesized that under global warming,an SSS amplification of 7.2%/℃ and a mixed-layer depth amplification of 12.5%/℃ will occur in the global ocean.It suggests that the salinity effect can exert a more stable ocean to hinder the downward transfer of heat,which provides positive feedback to future global warming.展开更多
Andrew Wangota,a 48-year-old Ugandan farmer,has been using agrivoltaics technology,a solar technology that uses agricultural land for both food production and solar power generation,on his farm in Bunashimolo Parish,B...Andrew Wangota,a 48-year-old Ugandan farmer,has been using agrivoltaics technology,a solar technology that uses agricultural land for both food production and solar power generation,on his farm in Bunashimolo Parish,Bukyiende Subcounty in Uganda where he has been cultivating plantain,coffee and Irish potatoes for the past 16 years.展开更多
Objective expertise evaluation of individuals,as a prerequisite stage for team formation,has been a long-term desideratum in large software development companies.With the rapid advancements in machine learning methods...Objective expertise evaluation of individuals,as a prerequisite stage for team formation,has been a long-term desideratum in large software development companies.With the rapid advancements in machine learning methods,based on reliable existing data stored in project management tools’datasets,automating this evaluation process becomes a natural step forward.In this context,our approach focuses on quantifying software developer expertise by using metadata from the task-tracking systems.For this,we mathematically formalize two categories of expertise:technology-specific expertise,which denotes the skills required for a particular technology,and general expertise,which encapsulates overall knowledge in the software industry.Afterward,we automatically classify the zones of expertise associated with each task a developer has worked on using Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers(BERT)-like transformers to handle the unique characteristics of project tool datasets effectively.Finally,our method evaluates the proficiency of each software specialist across already completed projects from both technology-specific and general perspectives.The method was experimentally validated,yielding promising results.展开更多
The global monsoon system,encompassing the Asian-Australian,African,and American monsoons,sustains two-thirds of the world’s population by regulating water resources and agriculture.Monsoon anomalies pose severe risk...The global monsoon system,encompassing the Asian-Australian,African,and American monsoons,sustains two-thirds of the world’s population by regulating water resources and agriculture.Monsoon anomalies pose severe risks,including floods and droughts.Recent research associated with the implementation of the Global Monsoons Model Intercomparison Project under the umbrella of CMIP6 has advanced our understanding of its historical variability and driving mechanisms.Observational data reveal a 20th-century shift:increased rainfall pre-1950s,followed by aridification and partial recovery post-1980s,driven by both internal variability(e.g.,Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation)and external forcings(greenhouse gases,aerosols),while ENSO drives interannual variability through ocean-atmosphere interactions.Future projections under greenhouse forcing suggest long-term monsoon intensification,though regional disparities and model uncertainties persist.Models indicate robust trends but struggle to quantify extremes,where thermodynamic effects(warming-induced moisture rise)uniformly boost heavy rainfall,while dynamical shifts(circulation changes)create spatial heterogeneity.Volcanic eruptions and proposed solar radiation modification(SRM)further complicate predictions:tropical eruptions suppress monsoons,whereas high-latitude events alter cross-equatorial flows,highlighting unresolved feedbacks.The emergent constraint approach is booming in terms of correcting future projections and reducing uncertainty with respect to the global monsoons.Critical challenges remain.Model biases and sparse 20th-century observational data hinder accurate attribution.The interplay between natural variability and anthropogenic forcings,along with nonlinear extreme precipitation risks under warming,demands deeper mechanistic insights.Additionally,SRM’s regional impacts and hemispheric monsoon interactions require systematic evaluation.Addressing these gaps necessitates enhanced observational networks,refined climate models,and interdisciplinary efforts to disentangle multiscale drivers,ultimately improving resilience strategies for monsoon-dependent regions.展开更多
The 2008 Olympic Games in Beijing will provide a good opportunity to boost China’s public relations industry It seems like an impossible mission to enable a foreigner to experience China’s 5,000-year history in just...The 2008 Olympic Games in Beijing will provide a good opportunity to boost China’s public relations industry It seems like an impossible mission to enable a foreigner to experience China’s 5,000-year history in just a few hours,but Mark Zhou, a Chinese, and Alex Koi, a Singaporean, have done just that.In an effort to enable people to get to know China, they have launched “urban safari” activities, in which the participants in a simulated environment can enjoy all kinds of food, videotapes and a detailed explanation to get an intimate feel of China’s history, culture, arts and folk customs in just six hours.展开更多
当下,小学英语板块教学存在活动形式单一化、探究活动浅表化等问题,综合育人价值未能完全发挥。为改变这一现状,文章以人教版英语(PEP)四年级上册Unit 1“Helping at home”的“Project:Make a poster of a happy family”为例,以项目...当下,小学英语板块教学存在活动形式单一化、探究活动浅表化等问题,综合育人价值未能完全发挥。为改变这一现状,文章以人教版英语(PEP)四年级上册Unit 1“Helping at home”的“Project:Make a poster of a happy family”为例,以项目化学习为支架,围绕项目设计、过程实施、评价反馈、成果展示等维度探究有效教学策略,旨在优化Project板块的教学模式,引导学生在项目化学习中提升语言运用能力和综合实践能力。展开更多
文摘The new double projecting neurons were found in the cat spinal dorsal horn by the double retrograde fluorescent tracing technique.Fast Blue(FB)was injected into unilateral dorsal column nucleus(DCN)of adult cats anesthetized with pentobarbital.Nuclear Yellow(NY)was injected ipsilaterally into the lateral cervical nucleus(LCN)8-9 days later.After an additional 18-30 hrs.
基金The support of National Science Foundation of China (61571168,61401126), Leading Talent Team Backup Leader Foundation of Heilongjiang Province are gratefully acknowledged.
文摘Coded structured light is an accurate, fast 3D measurement approach with high sampling density, of which the encoded fringes are distorted when projected to curved surface. Focused on the demand of encoding, decoding, multiview registration and system calibration, we expect to obtain undistorted fringes from camera image. Therefore, in this paper, we analyze the accuracy and sampling density of projecting distortion calibration approach based on control point and fitting surface. Moreover, combining the characteristic of coded structured light system, we design encoded fringe projecting distortion calibration scheme based on simplified encoded structured light model. Primarily, we neglect the minor parameters that affect the calibration in structured light model to reduce complexity. Then, we build the correspondence between camera image points and projector image points and achieve the calibration. Finally, we design evaluation scheme of projecting distortion calibration with parallelism and equal interval, and verify the effectiveness and accuracy of the approach through visual effect and experimental data.
基金funding from the NFR COMBINED (Grant No.328935)The BCPU hosted YZ visit to University of Bergen (Trond Mohn Foundation Grant No.BFS2018TMT01)+2 种基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No.2023YFA0805101)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.42376250 and 41731177)a China Scholarship Council fellowship and the UTFORSK Partnership Program (CONNECTED UTF-2016-long-term/10030)。
文摘Spring consecutive rainfall events(CREs) are key triggers of geological hazards in the Three Gorges Reservoir area(TGR), China. However, previous projections of CREs based on the direct outputs of global climate models(GCMs) are subject to considerable uncertainties, largely caused by their coarse resolution. This study applies a triple-nested WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting) model dynamical downscaling, driven by a GCM, MIROC6(Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, version 6), to improve the historical simulation and reduce the uncertainties in the future projection of CREs in the TGR. Results indicate that WRF has better performances in reproducing the observed rainfall in terms of the daily probability distribution, monthly evolution and duration of rainfall events, demonstrating the ability of WRF in simulating CREs. Thus, the triple-nested WRF is applied to project the future changes of CREs under the middle-of-the-road and fossil-fueled development scenarios. It is indicated that light and moderate rainfall and the duration of continuous rainfall spells will decrease in the TGR, leading to a decrease in the frequency of CREs. Meanwhile, the duration, rainfall amount, and intensity of CREs is projected to regional increase in the central-west TGR. These results are inconsistent with the raw projection of MIROC6. Observational diagnosis implies that CREs are mainly contributed by the vertical moisture advection. Such a synoptic contribution is captured well by WRF, which is not the case in MIROC6,indicating larger uncertainties in the CREs projected by MIROC6.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos. 90711004 and 40775053"One Hundred Talent Plan" of the Chinese Academy of Sciences
文摘Since no consensus has been reached in previous studies about how the summer climate in China will evolve in the first half of the 21st century, this issue is addressed here through sensitivity experiments by forcing an atmospheric general circulation model （AGCM）, the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory （GFDL）＇s Atmospheric Model Version 2.0 （AM2） with projected sea surface temperature （SST） trend. A total of two SST trends from the Intergovernmental Panels on Climate Change （IPCC） Special Report on Emissions Scenario （SRES） AlB are used. The two trends are from two coupled climate system models, the National Center for Atmospheric Research （NCAR） Community Climate System Model Version 3.0 （CCSM3） and the GFDL Climate Model Version 2.0 （CM2）, respectively. Results consistently suggest a substantial warming and drying trend over much of China, with a surface air temperature increase of 1.0-2.0℃ and a 10%-20% decrease in rainfall. Exceptions are the areas from northwestern China to western North China as well as the southern Tibetan Plateau, which are projected to be wetter with a rainfall anomaly percentage increase of 10%-50%. The drying in eastern North China has not been documented to date but appears to be reasonable. Physically, it is attributed to anomalous northeasterly winds at the rear of a low-level cyclone over the South China Sea, the Philippines and the subtropical western North Pacific. These conditions, which govern the climate of eastern China, are forced by the northward shift of convection over warm waters due to additional warming.
文摘The neurons with coexistence of serotonin-and giutamate-immunoreactivity(5-HT/Glu cells)in medullary raphe nuclei were investigated in the present study by using immunofluorescence technique.On the basis or the investigation projections of the 5-HT/Glu cells to the cerebellar cortex were studied by means or a combined microsphere retrograde transport.The results showed that most of the 5-HT cells in medullary raphe nuclei exhibited Glu-immunoreactivity.The cell count indicated that 81.77% of the 5-HT cells contained Gin-immunoreactivity;40.35%of the Gin-cells contained 5-HT.The retrograde labeled cells by microspkere(MS cells)were found in all medullary rapke nuclei. 5-HT/MS cells were rare.The Gin/MS cells had a rate in total MS cells(40.31 %).Three trible-labeled cells (5-HT/Glu/MS cells)were found. The finding or the 5-HT/Glu cells in medullary raphe nuclei projecting to the cerebellar cortex may give an iportant significance to understanding the functional connection between medullary raphe nuclei and cerebellum.
基金The authors wish to thank:Igor Kharitonov,Director,Department for Foreign Statistics and International Projects,Federal State Statistics Service,Rosstat.State Statistics Service,Main Department of Statistics in Donetsk Oblast.The Ukrainian Statistical agency UkrStat.gov.ua.
文摘Detailed projections of the Former Soviet Union(FSU)fossil fuel production has been created.Russian production has been modelled at the region(oblast)level where possible.The projections were made using the Geologic Resource Supply-Demand Model(GeRS-DeMo).Low,Best Guess and High scenarios were created.FSU fossil fuels are projected to peak between 2027 and 2087 with the range due to spread of Ultimately Recoverable Resources(URR)values used.The Best Guess(BG)scenario anticipates FSU will peak in 2087 with production over 170 EJ per year.The FSU projections were combined with rest of the world projections(Mohr et al.2015b),the emissions from the High scenario for the world are similar to the IPCC A1 AIM scenario.
文摘Objectives: To project health outcomes for the period 2011-2031, in the Portuguese population aged 65 years and over, considering the expected changes in its demographic and educational structure. Methods: Demographic projections were produced using the multistate cohort component method. Logistic regression models were fitted to estimate current differences in health outcomes, using data from the Portuguese Health Survey. Such differences were applied to the projection results, in order to project the prevalence of “poor” self-reported health status, functional limitations and disability. Results: Our results point to a future improvement in the considered health outcomes. The prevalence of “poor” self-reported health status, functional limitations and disability will decrease in both genders, but will continue to be higher among women than men. Discussion: Beyond age and gender, other determinants of health, like education, should be considered when studying the possible evolution of health outcomes in an ageing population.
基金funded by Brazilian National Council for Scientifc and Techno‑logical Development(CNPq)–Grant No.444969/2023-3。
文摘Background Despite advancements in tuberculosis(TB)control policies in Brazil,the disease remains a signifcant public health concern.This study aimed to analyze long-term trends and projections of pulmonary tuberculosis(PTB)incidence rates in metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas of Brazil from 2001 to 2035,as well as to quantify the con‑tributions of demographic and epidemiological changes to these patterns.Methods This ecological study used national PTB case notifcation data reported to Brazil’s Notifable Diseases Information System from 2001 to 2020.Joinpoint regression was applied to identify changes in temporal trends.Age-period-cohort models were employed to examine the efects of age,period,and birth cohort on disease risk.A decomposition analysis was then conducted to assess the contributions of population aging,demographic growth,and epidemiological changes.Finally,Bayesian age-period-cohort models were used to project the TB burden through 2035,stratifed by sex and area.Results Between 2001 and 2020,PTB incidence declined by an average of−2.67%(95%CI−3.43,−2.08)per year in metropolitan areas and−2.54%(95%CI−2.92,−2.16)in non-metropolitan areas of Brazil.However,decomposition analysis showed that the absolute number of PTB cases in metropolitan areas increased,primarily driven by popula‑tion growth(+21,610 cases in men;+10,545 in women),with a smaller contribution from population aging(+2649 and+521 cases,respectively).In non-metropolitan areas,reductions were mainly explained by epidemiological improvements(−8314 cases in men;−6663 in women)and population decline(−4972 and−2380 cases,respec‑tively),outweighing the efects of aging.Looking ahead,projections indicate that PTB incidence will rise in metropoli‑tan areas,from 52.6 in 2015 to 62.4[95%credible interval(CrI):37.1-87.8]per 100,000 by 2035,while stabilizing at rela‑tively high levels in non-metropolitan areas,increasing from 28.4 to 33.8 per 100,000(95%CrI:19.3-48.3)among men.Conclusion Metropolitan areas are projected to experience substantial increases in PTB incidence,while non-metropolitan regions are expected to stabilize at persistently high levels,particularly among men.The fndings indicate that current TB control eforts in Brazil need to be strengthened for the country to meet the 2035 targets,especially in metropolitan areas.
文摘In recent years,the demand for synchronous acquisition of three-dimensional(3D)shape and col-or texture has surged in fields such as cultural heritage preservation and healthcare.Addressing this need,this paper proposes a novel method for simultaneous 3D shape and color texture capture.First,a linear model correlating camera exposure time with grayscale values is established.Through exposure time calibration,the projected red,green and blue(RGB)light and white-light grayscale values captured by a monochrome cam-era are aligned.Then,three sets of color fringes are projected onto the object to identify optimal pixels for 3D reconstruction.And,three pure-color patterns are projected to synthesize the color texture.Experimental res-ults show that this method effectively achieves synchronous 3D shape and color texture acquisition,offering high speed and precision,and avoids color crosstalk interference common in 3D reconstruction of colored ob-jects using a monochrome camera.
基金supported by the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research NWO in the form of a VIDI grant(Grant No.VI.Vidi.198.008).
文摘Projections of future urban land change are essential for a range of sustainability assessments,including those related to biodiversity loss,carbon emissions,and agricultural land conversion.However,to what extent and where current projections agree or disagree remains unknown.Here,we systematically compare existing global projections that are consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways.We find that the total global urban land area is expected to increase by 112%between 2020 and 2100(averaged across all projections),with a coefficient of variation of 0.81.This variation is mostly caused by the selection of the underlying drivers that are included in the different models.Regionally,the highest average growth rates are found in sub-Saharan Africa(+679%to+730%),while this region also has the highest variation across projections(coefficient of variation ranging from 2.02 to 2.18).When ranking scenarios within a study from the highest to the lowest projected increase in urban land,rankings are relatively similar for regions in the Global North,but not for regions in the Global South.The large disagreement across projections can lead to high uncertainties in assessments of future urban land change impacts,which can undermine the effectiveness of long-term planning,policymaking,and resource management decisions.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.U2342210 and 42275043)the National Institute of Natural Hazards,Ministry of Emergency Management of China(Grant Nos.J2223806,ZDJ2024-25 and ZDJ2025-34)。
文摘Climate models are essential for understanding past,present,and future changes in atmospheric circulation,with circulation modes providing key sources of seasonal predictability and prediction uncertainties for both global and regional climates.This study assesses the performance of models participating in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project in simulating interannual variability modes of Northern Hemisphere 500-hPa geopotential height during winter and summer,distinguishing predictable(potentially predictable on seasonal or longer timescales)and unpredictable(intraseasonal and essentially unpredictable at long range)components,using reanalysis data and a variance decomposition method.Although most models effectively capture unpredictable modes in reanalysis,their ability to reproduce dominant predictable modes-specifically the Pacific-North American pattern,Arctic Oscillation,and Western Pacific Oscillation in winter,and the East Atlantic and North Atlantic Oscillations in summer-varies notably.An optimal ensemble is identified to distinguish(a)predictable-external modes,dominated by external forcing,and(b)predictable-internal modes,associated with slow internal variability,during the historical period(1950-2014)and the SSP5-8.5 scenario(2036-2100).Under increased radiative forcing,the leading winter/summer predictable-external mode exhibits a more uniform spatial distribution,remarkably larger trend and annual variance,and enhanced height-sea surface temperature(SST)covariance under SSP5-8.5 compared to historical conditions.The dominant winter/summer predictable-internal modes also exhibit increased variance and height-SST covariance under SSP5-8.5,along with localized changes in spatial configuration.Minimal changes are observed in spatial distribution or variance for dominant winter/summer unpredictable modes under SSP5-8.5.This study,from a predictive perspective,deepens our understanding of model uncertainties and projected changes in circulations.
文摘Purpose-Interface management is the process of managing communications,responsibilities and coordination of project parties,phases or physical entities which are dependent on one another.Interface management is a crucial part of managing any construction project-but particularly important for high-speed railway projects that often have several contractual parties and stakeholders,very long project timelines and huge upfront cost overlays.This paper discusses how various project interfaces were managed during the design and construction of the civil engineering infrastructure for the High Speed Two(HS2)project in the United Kingdom.Design/methodology/approach-The paper uses the case study methodology.Key interfaces on the HS2 project are grouped into various categories and the paper discusses how they were managed within the Area North Integrated Project Team(IPT)of the HS2 project made up of contractor Balfour Beatty VINCI(BBV),the Mott MacDonald SYSTRA Design Joint Venture(DJV)and client HS2 Ltd.3 different case studies drawn from across the IPT are used,each of them highlighting different interfaces and how these interfaces were managed.Findings-The paper shows how innovative technical designs and modern methods of construction were used to address some of the unique and peculiar challenges of designing a brand-new railway in the United Kingdom.Addressing the contrasting and often competing requirements of different stakeholders,coupled with challenging physical constraints of the very limited land available for the project and the use of a rarely used Act of Parliament in the delivery of the project required different approach to interface management.Collaboration and proactive stakeholder engagement are necessary for successful interface management on megaprojects.The authors posit that adopting an integrated approach to engineering and construction management is an essential ingredient for the successful delivery of high-speed railway projects.Originality/value-With many high-speed railway projects around the world coming up in the next few years,understanding the context and challenges for each country will help engineering and design managers adopt appropriate approaches for their projects.The lessons learned on the HS2 project are also transferable to other mega infrastructure projects with complex project interfaces.
基金supported by the Laoshan Laboratory[grant number LSKJ202202403]the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 42030410]+1 种基金additionally supported by the Startup Foundation for Introducing Talent of NUISTJiangsu Innovation Research Group[grant number JSSCTD202346]。
文摘Global warming induced by increased CO_(2) has caused marked changes in the ocean.Previous estimates of ocean salinity change in response to global warming have considerable ambiguity,largely attributable to the diverse sensitivities of surface fluxes.This study utilizes data from the Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project to investigate how ocean salinity responds to perturbations of surface fluxes.The findings indicate the emergence of a sea surface salinity(SSS)dipole pattern predominantly in the North Atlantic and Pacific fresh pools,driven by surface flux perturbations.This results in an intensification of the“salty gets saltier and fresh gets fresher”SSS pattern across the global ocean.The spatial pattern amplification(PA)of SSS under global warming is estimated to be approximately 11.5%,with surface water flux perturbations being the most significant contributor to salinity PA,accounting for 8.1% of the change after 70 years in experiments since pre-industrial control(piControl).Notably,the zonal-depth distribution of salinity in the upper ocean exhibits lighter seawater above the denser water,with bowed isopycnals in the upper 400 m.This stable stratification inhibits vertical mixing of salinity and temperature.In response to the flux perturbations,there is a strong positive feedback due to consequent freshening.It is hypothesized that under global warming,an SSS amplification of 7.2%/℃ and a mixed-layer depth amplification of 12.5%/℃ will occur in the global ocean.It suggests that the salinity effect can exert a more stable ocean to hinder the downward transfer of heat,which provides positive feedback to future global warming.
文摘Andrew Wangota,a 48-year-old Ugandan farmer,has been using agrivoltaics technology,a solar technology that uses agricultural land for both food production and solar power generation,on his farm in Bunashimolo Parish,Bukyiende Subcounty in Uganda where he has been cultivating plantain,coffee and Irish potatoes for the past 16 years.
基金supported by the project“Romanian Hub for Artificial Intelligence-HRIA”,Smart Growth,Digitization and Financial Instruments Program,2021–2027,MySMIS No.334906.
文摘Objective expertise evaluation of individuals,as a prerequisite stage for team formation,has been a long-term desideratum in large software development companies.With the rapid advancements in machine learning methods,based on reliable existing data stored in project management tools’datasets,automating this evaluation process becomes a natural step forward.In this context,our approach focuses on quantifying software developer expertise by using metadata from the task-tracking systems.For this,we mathematically formalize two categories of expertise:technology-specific expertise,which denotes the skills required for a particular technology,and general expertise,which encapsulates overall knowledge in the software industry.Afterward,we automatically classify the zones of expertise associated with each task a developer has worked on using Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers(BERT)-like transformers to handle the unique characteristics of project tool datasets effectively.Finally,our method evaluates the proficiency of each software specialist across already completed projects from both technology-specific and general perspectives.The method was experimentally validated,yielding promising results.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2020YFA0608904)the International Partnership Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant Nos.060GJHZ2023079GC and 134111KYSB20160031)+1 种基金supported by the Office of Science,U.S.Department of Energy(DOE)Biological and Environmental Research as part of the Regional and Global Model Analysis program area through the Water Cycle and Climate Extremes Modeling(WACCEM)scientific focus areaoperated for DOE by Battelle Memorial Institute under contract DE-AC05-76RL01830。
文摘The global monsoon system,encompassing the Asian-Australian,African,and American monsoons,sustains two-thirds of the world’s population by regulating water resources and agriculture.Monsoon anomalies pose severe risks,including floods and droughts.Recent research associated with the implementation of the Global Monsoons Model Intercomparison Project under the umbrella of CMIP6 has advanced our understanding of its historical variability and driving mechanisms.Observational data reveal a 20th-century shift:increased rainfall pre-1950s,followed by aridification and partial recovery post-1980s,driven by both internal variability(e.g.,Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation)and external forcings(greenhouse gases,aerosols),while ENSO drives interannual variability through ocean-atmosphere interactions.Future projections under greenhouse forcing suggest long-term monsoon intensification,though regional disparities and model uncertainties persist.Models indicate robust trends but struggle to quantify extremes,where thermodynamic effects(warming-induced moisture rise)uniformly boost heavy rainfall,while dynamical shifts(circulation changes)create spatial heterogeneity.Volcanic eruptions and proposed solar radiation modification(SRM)further complicate predictions:tropical eruptions suppress monsoons,whereas high-latitude events alter cross-equatorial flows,highlighting unresolved feedbacks.The emergent constraint approach is booming in terms of correcting future projections and reducing uncertainty with respect to the global monsoons.Critical challenges remain.Model biases and sparse 20th-century observational data hinder accurate attribution.The interplay between natural variability and anthropogenic forcings,along with nonlinear extreme precipitation risks under warming,demands deeper mechanistic insights.Additionally,SRM’s regional impacts and hemispheric monsoon interactions require systematic evaluation.Addressing these gaps necessitates enhanced observational networks,refined climate models,and interdisciplinary efforts to disentangle multiscale drivers,ultimately improving resilience strategies for monsoon-dependent regions.
文摘The 2008 Olympic Games in Beijing will provide a good opportunity to boost China’s public relations industry It seems like an impossible mission to enable a foreigner to experience China’s 5,000-year history in just a few hours,but Mark Zhou, a Chinese, and Alex Koi, a Singaporean, have done just that.In an effort to enable people to get to know China, they have launched “urban safari” activities, in which the participants in a simulated environment can enjoy all kinds of food, videotapes and a detailed explanation to get an intimate feel of China’s history, culture, arts and folk customs in just six hours.
文摘当下,小学英语板块教学存在活动形式单一化、探究活动浅表化等问题,综合育人价值未能完全发挥。为改变这一现状,文章以人教版英语(PEP)四年级上册Unit 1“Helping at home”的“Project:Make a poster of a happy family”为例,以项目化学习为支架,围绕项目设计、过程实施、评价反馈、成果展示等维度探究有效教学策略,旨在优化Project板块的教学模式,引导学生在项目化学习中提升语言运用能力和综合实践能力。
