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模糊限制语probably的类联接典型范式及其情态功能研究 被引量:2
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作者 王月丽 《西南科技大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》 2013年第6期81-86,101,共7页
基于美国当代英语语料库COCA的研究发现:1)与probably共现频数最高的动词、名词和形容词预见了模糊限制语probably最常用的语法构式为"be+probably+adj.+n."与"will/would+probably+v."。2)模糊限制语probably有居... 基于美国当代英语语料库COCA的研究发现:1)与probably共现频数最高的动词、名词和形容词预见了模糊限制语probably最常用的语法构式为"be+probably+adj.+n."与"will/would+probably+v."。2)模糊限制语probably有居中的句法位置趋向,主要发挥认知评价与缓和语气,调节人际关系的语用功能。3)模糊限制语probably的类联接典型范式具有精确话语信息、表达礼貌意义以及传达认知评价的主、客观情态取向的三重情态功能,其情态意义表达强度呈现强弱渐进的变化趋势。 展开更多
关键词 模糊限制语 probably 搭配 类联接 情态功能
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probably与maybe的用法比较
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作者 孟凡茂 孟凡艳 《语言教育》 2002年第7期40-40,共1页
初学英语的人,往往把probab—ly(=most likely)一词与maybe(=per-haps)混同起来。但是,无论在意义上还是用法上,两者都有一些差别。首先,在意义方面。
关键词 probably MAYBE LIKELY LEAVE 法上 THINK perhaps TOMORROW 通讯地址 临沂师范学院
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Identification of Abnormal 51 CTA/CTG Expansion as Probably the Shortest Pathogenic Allele for Spinocerebellar Ataxia-8 in China 被引量:1
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作者 Minjin Wang Shuo Guo +4 位作者 Wencong Yao Jun Wang Jianxia Tao Yanbing Zhou Binwu Ying 《Neuroscience Bulletin》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2018年第5期859-862,共4页
Spinocerebellar ataxias (SCAs) are a group of genetic disorders characterized by slowly progressive incoordina- tion of gait and are often associated with poor coordination of the hands, speech, and eye movements. F... Spinocerebellar ataxias (SCAs) are a group of genetic disorders characterized by slowly progressive incoordina- tion of gait and are often associated with poor coordination of the hands, speech, and eye movements. Frequently, atrophy of the cerebellum occurs. The genetic forms of ataxia are diagnosed by family history, physical examina- tion, neuroimaging, and molecular genetic testing. At present, 36 SCA subtypes including 27 pathogenic genes have been identified [1]. Different subtypes of SCAs have clear distribution differences among ethnic populations, and SCA8 is an infrequent entity worldwide, which has mostly been reported in Japanese, but has never been reported in Chinese [2]. SCAB involves bidirectional expression based on the total number of both the (CTA)n and (CTG)n expansion transcripts in ATXN8OS. The pathogenesis of this disorder is complex and the spectrum of clinical presentations is broad. It is predominantly characterized by drawn-out slowness of speech and gait instability, followed by slowly progressive ataxia, with disease onset typically occurring in adulthood [3]. How- ever, the lowest full-penetrance allele for SCA8 onset remains elusive and the current understanding of the phenotypic and genotypic features of SCA8 is limited. Since SCA8 has not yet been reported in the Chinese population and is scantily reported in a small proportion of pedigrees so far, clinical knowledge is still developing. Moreover, the boundary between the normal and patho- genic alleles of SCA8 is uncertain. Here we report the clinical and molecular genetic characteristics of 3 Chinese SCA8 families and have identified 51 CTA/CTG repeats within ATXN8OS, probably the shortest pathogenic allele for SCA8. 展开更多
关键词 CTG OS CTA Identification of Abnormal 51 CTA/CTG Expansion as probably the Shortest Pathogenic Allele for Spinocerebellar Ataxia-8 in China
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You've got questions? She's got answers(But you probably won't like them)
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《The World of Chinese》 2024年第1期126-126,共1页
Dear Ayi,I think my son’s elementary teachers are irresponsible!He always comes home with his water bottle still full,despite my repeated messages to his teachers reminding them to encourage him to drink more water.S... Dear Ayi,I think my son’s elementary teachers are irresponsible!He always comes home with his water bottle still full,despite my repeated messages to his teachers reminding them to encourage him to drink more water.Should I move him to another school next year? 展开更多
关键词 probably ELEMENTARY ANSWER
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You've got questions?She's got answers(But you probably won't like them)
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《The World of Chinese》 2024年第2期126-126,共1页
Dear Ayi,I tried to avoid crowds this Labor Day holiday by visiting a small village in the middle of nowhere.Iended up bored out of my mind.Where can I go that's quiet and fun?
关键词 tried probably ANSWER
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Wind⁃resistant fuzzy comfortability assessment for a super⁃high tower crane based on the PDEM 被引量:2
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作者 LIU Yun WANG Hao +2 位作者 LI Bing XU Zidong MAO Jianxiao 《Journal of Southeast University(English Edition)》 2025年第1期51-57,共7页
The fuzzy comfortability of a wind-sensitive super-high tower crane is critical to guarantee occupant health and improve construction efficiency.Therefore,the wind-resistant fuzzy comfortability of a super-high tower ... The fuzzy comfortability of a wind-sensitive super-high tower crane is critical to guarantee occupant health and improve construction efficiency.Therefore,the wind-resistant fuzzy comfortability of a super-high tower crane in the Ma’anshan Yangtze River(MYR)Bridge site is analyzed in this paper.First,the membership function model that represents fuzzy comfortability is introduced in the probability density evolution method(PDEM).Second,based on Fechner’s law,the membership function curves are constructed according to three acceleration thresholds in ISO 2631.Then,the fuzzy comfortability for the super-high tower crane under stochastic wind loads is assessed on the basis of different cut-set levelsλ.Results show that the comfortability is over 0.9 under the required maximum operating wind velocity.The low sensitivity toλcan be observed in the reliability curves of ISOⅡandⅢmembership functions.The reliability of the ISOⅠmembership function is not sensitive toλwhenλ<0.7,whereas it becomes sensitive toλwhenλ>0.7. 展开更多
关键词 comfort reliability probability density evolution method fuzzy theory membership function tower crane long-span bridge
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DKP-SLAM:A Visual SLAM for Dynamic Indoor Scenes Based on Object Detection and Region Probability
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作者 Menglin Yin Yong Qin Jiansheng Peng 《Computers, Materials & Continua》 SCIE EI 2025年第1期1329-1347,共19页
In dynamic scenarios,visual simultaneous localization and mapping(SLAM)algorithms often incorrectly incorporate dynamic points during camera pose computation,leading to reduced accuracy and robustness.This paper prese... In dynamic scenarios,visual simultaneous localization and mapping(SLAM)algorithms often incorrectly incorporate dynamic points during camera pose computation,leading to reduced accuracy and robustness.This paper presents a dynamic SLAM algorithm that leverages object detection and regional dynamic probability.Firstly,a parallel thread employs the YOLOX object detectionmodel to gather 2D semantic information and compensate for missed detections.Next,an improved K-means++clustering algorithm clusters bounding box regions,adaptively determining the threshold for extracting dynamic object contours as dynamic points change.This process divides the image into low dynamic,suspicious dynamic,and high dynamic regions.In the tracking thread,the dynamic point removal module assigns dynamic probability weights to the feature points in these regions.Combined with geometric methods,it detects and removes the dynamic points.The final evaluation on the public TUM RGB-D dataset shows that the proposed dynamic SLAM algorithm surpasses most existing SLAM algorithms,providing better pose estimation accuracy and robustness in dynamic environments. 展开更多
关键词 Visual SLAM dynamic scene YOLOX K-means++clustering dynamic probability
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Outage Performance Analysis of UAV-Cooperative Vehicular Communication Systems
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作者 Liang Linlin Tian Zongkai +4 位作者 Huang Haiyan Zhang Nina Zhang Dehua Song Qipeng Li Yue 《China Communications》 2025年第8期245-256,共12页
The utilization of unmanned aerial vehicle(UAV) relays in cooperative communication has gained considerable attention in recent years.However,the current research is mostly based on fixed base stations and users,lacki... The utilization of unmanned aerial vehicle(UAV) relays in cooperative communication has gained considerable attention in recent years.However,the current research is mostly based on fixed base stations and users,lacking sufficient exploration of scenarios where communication nodes are in motion.This paper presents a multi-destination vehicle communication system based on decode-and-forward(DF)UAV relays,where source and destination vehicles are moving and an internal eavesdropper intercepts messages from UAV.The closed-form expressions for system outage probability and secrecy outage probability are derived to analyze the reliability and security of the system.Furthermore,the impact of the UAV's position,signal transmission power,and system time allocation ratio on the system's performance are also analyzed.The numerical simulation results validate the accuracy of the derived formulas and confirm the correctness of the analysis.The appropriate time allocation ratio significantly enhances the security performance of system under various environmental conditions. 展开更多
关键词 covert communication outage probability secrecy outage probability transport communication
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Demystifying field application of Critical Height Sampling in estimating stand volume
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作者 Hsiao-Chi Lo Tzeng Yih Lam 《Forest Ecosystems》 2025年第3期433-442,共10页
Critical Height Sampling(CHS)estimates stand volume free from any model and tree form assumptions.Despite its introduction more than four decades ago,CHS has not been widely applied in the field due to perceived chall... Critical Height Sampling(CHS)estimates stand volume free from any model and tree form assumptions.Despite its introduction more than four decades ago,CHS has not been widely applied in the field due to perceived challenges in measurement.The objectives of this study were to compare estimated stand volume between CHS and sampling methods that used volume or taper models,the equivalence of the sampling methods,and their relative efficiency.We established 65 field plots in planted forests of two coniferous tree species.We estimated stand volume for a range of Basal Area Factors(BAFs).Results showed that CHS produced the most similar mean stand volume across BAFs and tree species with maximum differences between BAFs of 5-18m^(3)·ha^(−1).Horizontal Point Sampling(HPS)using volume models produced very large variability in mean stand volume across BAFs with the differences up to 126m^(3)·ha^(−1).However,CHS was less precise and less efficient than HPS.Furthermore,none of the sampling methods were statistically interchangeable with CHS at an allowable tolerance of≤55m^(3)·ha^(−1).About 72%of critical height measurements were below crown base indicating that critical height was more accessible to measurement than expected.Our study suggests that the consistency in the mean estimates of CHS is a major advantage when planning a forest inventory.When checking against CHS,results hint that HPS estimates might contain potential model bias.These strengths of CHS could outweigh its lower precision.Our study also implies serious implications in financial terms when choosing a sampling method.Lastly,CHS could potentially benefit forest management as an alternate option of estimating stand volume when volume or taper models are lacking or are not reliable. 展开更多
关键词 Angle count sampling Forest inventory Forest management Probability proportional to size sampling Sampling theory Variable probability sampling Volume-to-basal area ratio
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SP-Sketch:Persistent Flow Detection with Sliding Windows on Programmable Switches
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作者 Yuqian Huang Luyi Chen +1 位作者 Zilun Peng Lin Cui 《Computers, Materials & Continua》 2025年第9期6015-6034,共20页
Persistent flows are defined as network flows that persist over multiple time intervals and continue to exhibit activity over extended periods,which are critical for identifying long-term behaviors and subtle security... Persistent flows are defined as network flows that persist over multiple time intervals and continue to exhibit activity over extended periods,which are critical for identifying long-term behaviors and subtle security threats.Programmable switches provide line-rate packet processing to meet the requirements of high-speed network environments,yet they are fundamentally limited in computational and memory resources.Accurate and memoryefficient persistent flow detection on programmable switches is therefore essential.However,existing approaches often rely on fixed-window sketches or multiple sketches instances,which either suffer from insufficient temporal precision or incur substantial memory overhead,making them ineffective on programmable switches.To address these challenges,we propose SP-Sketch,an innovative sliding-window-based sketch that leverages a probabilistic update mechanism to emulate slot expiration without maintaining multiple sketch instances.This innovative design significantly reduces memory consumption while preserving high detection accuracy across multiple time intervals.We provide rigorous theoretical analyses of the estimation errors,deriving precise error bounds for the proposed method,and validate our approach through comprehensive implementations on both P4 hardware switches(with Intel Tofino ASIC)and software switches(i.e.,BMv2).Experimental evaluations using real-world traffic traces demonstrate that SP-Sketch outperforms traditional methods,improving accuracy by up to 20%over baseline sliding window approaches and enhancing recall by 5%compared to non-sliding alternatives.Furthermore,SP-Sketch achieves a significant reduction in memory utilization,reducing memory consumption by up to 65%compared to traditional methods,while maintaining a robust capability to accurately track persistent flow behavior over extended time periods. 展开更多
关键词 SKETCH persistent flow sliding window programmable switches probability subtraction
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Large-scale modelling wind damage vulnerability through combination of high-resolution forest resources maps and ForestGALES
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作者 Morgane Merlin Tommaso Locatelli +1 位作者 Barry Gardiner Rasmus Astrup 《Forest Ecosystems》 2025年第5期1021-1034,共14页
Assessing forest vulnerability to disturbances at a high spatial resolution and for regional and national scales has become attainable with the combination of remote sensing-derived high-resolution forest maps and mec... Assessing forest vulnerability to disturbances at a high spatial resolution and for regional and national scales has become attainable with the combination of remote sensing-derived high-resolution forest maps and mechanistic risk models. This study demonstrated large-scale and high-resolution modelling of wind damage vulnerability in Norway. The hybrid mechanistic wind damage model, ForestGALES, was adapted to map the critical wind speeds(CWS) of damage across Norway using a national forest attribute map at a 16 m × 16 m spatial resolution. P arametrization of the model for the Norwegian context was done using the literature and the National Forest Inventory data. This new parametrization of the model for Norwegian forests yielded estimates of CWS significantly different from the default parametrization. Both parametrizations fell short of providing acceptable discrimination of the damaged area following the storm of November 19, 2021 in the central southern region of Norway when using unadjusted CWS. After adjusting the CWS and the storm wind speeds by a constant factor, the Norwegian parametrization provided acceptable discrimination and was thus defined as suitable to use in future studies, despite the lack of field-and laboratory experiments to directly derive parameters for Norwegian forests. The windstorm event used for model validation in this study highlighted the challenges of predicting wind damage to forests in landscapes with complex topography. Future studies should focus on further developing ForestGALES and new datasets describing extreme wind climates to better represent the wind and tree interactions in complex topography, and predict the level of risk in order to develop local climate-smart forest management strategies. 展开更多
关键词 WIND Natural disturbance ForestGALES Damage probability Forest resource map
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Discovering Climate Change during the Early 21st Century via Wasserstein Stability Analysis
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作者 Zhiang XIE Dongwei CHEN Puxi LI 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 2025年第2期373-381,共9页
Climate change is an essential topic in climate science,and the accessibility of accurate,high-resolution datasets in recent years has facilitated the extraction of more insights from big-data resources.Nonetheless,cu... Climate change is an essential topic in climate science,and the accessibility of accurate,high-resolution datasets in recent years has facilitated the extraction of more insights from big-data resources.Nonetheless,current research predominantly focuses on mean-value changes and largely overlooks changes in the probability distribution.In this study,a novel method called Wasserstein Stability Analysis(WSA)is developed to identify probability density function(PDF)changes,especially the extreme event shift and nonlinear physical value constraint variation in climate change.WSA is applied to the early 21st century and compared with traditional mean-value trend analysis.The results indicate that despite no significant trend,the equatorial eastern Pacific experienced a decline in hot extremes and an increase in cold extremes,indicating a La Nina-like temperature shift.Further analysis at two Arctic locations suggests sea ice severely restricts the hot extremes of surface air temperature.This impact is diminishing as the sea ice melts.By revealing PDF shifts,WSA emerges as a powerful tool to re-examine climate change dynamics,providing enhanced data-driven insights for understanding climate evolution. 展开更多
关键词 climate change probability density function EXTREMES Wasserstein distance
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Laser-assistedαdecay of the deformed odd-A nuclei
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作者 Jun-Hao Cheng Qiong Xiao +3 位作者 Jun-Gang Deng Yang-Yang Xu You-Tian Zou Tong-Pu Yu 《Nuclear Science and Techniques》 2025年第4期181-198,共18页
In this study,we explore the impact of state-of-the-art laser fields on theαdecay half-life of deformed ground-state odd-A nuclei within the proton number range of 52–107.The calculations show that the presence of a... In this study,we explore the impact of state-of-the-art laser fields on theαdecay half-life of deformed ground-state odd-A nuclei within the proton number range of 52–107.The calculations show that the presence of a laser field modulates theαdecay half-life by altering theαdecay penetration probability within a limited range.Moreover,the variance in the penetration probability rate of change between even–odd and odd–even nuclei is investigated.Furthermore,we investigate the rate of change of the penetration probability for the same parent nucleus with different neutron numbers,based on the characteristics of the odd-A nucleus.We found that the influence of the laser field on the penetration probability is determined by both the shell effect and odd–even staggering.This research contributes to the understanding of nuanced interactions between laser fields and nuclear decay processes.Therefore,valuable insights for future experiments in laser–nuclear physics are attainable using this study. 展开更多
关键词 αdecay Odd-A nuclei HALF-LIFE Extreme laser field Penetration probability
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Multi-sensor possibility PHD filter for space situational awareness
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作者 Han CAI Chenbao XUE +2 位作者 Xiucong SUN Jeremie HOUSSINEAU Jingrui ZHANG 《Chinese Journal of Aeronautics》 2025年第6期58-76,共19页
Tracking multiple space objects using multiple surveillance sensors is a critical approach in many Space Situation Awareness(SSA) applications. In this process, the uncertainties of targets,dynamics, and observations ... Tracking multiple space objects using multiple surveillance sensors is a critical approach in many Space Situation Awareness(SSA) applications. In this process, the uncertainties of targets,dynamics, and observations are usually represented by the probability distributions. However, precise characterization of uncertainty becomes challenging due to imperfect knowledge about some key aspects, such as birth targets and sensor detection profiles. To overcome this challenge, this paper proposes a multi-sensor possibility PHD filter based on the theory of outer probability measures. An effective compensation method is introduced to tackle variations in the fields of view of SSA sensors or instances of missed detections, aiming to mitigate the inconsistency in localized information. The proposed method is adapted to centralized and distributed sensor networks, offering effective solutions for multi-sensor multi-target tracking. The major innovation of the proposed method compared with typical methods is the proper description of epistemic uncertainty, which yields more robust performance in the scenarios of lacking some information about the system.The effectiveness of the multi-sensor possibility PHD filter is demonstrated by a comparison with conventional methods in two simulated scenarios. 展开更多
关键词 Space situational awareness PHD filter Epistemicuncertainty Information fusion Spacedebris Outer probability measure
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Joint Probabilistic Scheduling and Resource Allocation for Wireless Networked Control Systems
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作者 Meng Zheng Lei Zhang Wei Liang 《IEEE/CAA Journal of Automatica Sinica》 2025年第1期258-260,共3页
Dear Editor,This letter presents a joint probabilistic scheduling and resource allocation method(PSRA) for 5G-based wireless networked control systems(WNCSs). As a control-aware optimization method, PSRA minimizes the... Dear Editor,This letter presents a joint probabilistic scheduling and resource allocation method(PSRA) for 5G-based wireless networked control systems(WNCSs). As a control-aware optimization method, PSRA minimizes the linear quadratic Gaussian(LQG) control cost of WNCSs by optimizing the activation probability of subsystems, the number of uplink repetitions, and the durations of uplink and downlink phases. Simulation results show that PSRA achieves smaller LQG control costs than existing works. 展开更多
关键词 subsystem activation probability linear quadratic gaussian control cost number uplink repetitions wireless networked control systems joint probabilistic scheduling resource allocation method psra linear quadratic gaussian lqg G based activation probability subsystems
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Research on Compliance Flight Test Technology of Integrated Modular Avionics(IMA)System
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作者 Bo Xu 《Journal of Electronic Research and Application》 2025年第3期208-213,共6页
Based on the analysis and research of the airworthiness objective of integrated modular avionics system(IMA),and the characteristics of IMA system’s comprehensive and complex cross-linking with other airborne systems... Based on the analysis and research of the airworthiness objective of integrated modular avionics system(IMA),and the characteristics of IMA system’s comprehensive and complex cross-linking with other airborne systems,the extraction strategy of IMA system’s compliance flight test subjects and the selection method of IMA system’s compliance flight test parameters are proposed.The data analysis method based on the abnormal probability matrix of the IMA system is proposed for the first time,and the abnormal state information of the IMA system can be quickly identified.The compliance flight test of the IMA system is completed with limited flight test resources,which achieves the purpose of saving flight test sorties and improving flight test efficiency.This research has been successfully applied to the airworthiness certification flight test of a certain civil transport aircraft in China,and can provide technical support for the subsequent type flight test. 展开更多
关键词 Integrated modular avionics Flight test COMPLIANCE Abnormal probability
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ON THE GAUSSIAN KINEMATIC FORMULA OF R.ADLER AND J.TAYLOR
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作者 Joseph H.G.Fu 《Acta Mathematica Scientia》 2025年第1期200-214,共15页
We apply methods of algebraic integral geometry to prove a special case of the Gaussian kinematic formula of Adler-Taylor.The idea,suggested already by Adler and Taylor,is to view the GKF as the limit of spherical kin... We apply methods of algebraic integral geometry to prove a special case of the Gaussian kinematic formula of Adler-Taylor.The idea,suggested already by Adler and Taylor,is to view the GKF as the limit of spherical kinematic formulas for spheres of large dimension N and curvature1/N. 展开更多
关键词 integral geometry kinematic formula probability density Gaussian density
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Performance Analysis and Energy Efficiency Optimization of UAV-Aided Backscatter Communication System
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作者 Xiang Ling FengWenjiang +1 位作者 Zou Yongqi Zhang Juntao 《China Communications》 2025年第10期149-160,共12页
Backscatter communication(BC)is con-sidered a key technology in self-sustainable commu-nications,and the unmanned aerial vehicle(UAV)as a data collector can improve the efficiency of data col-lection.We consider a UAV... Backscatter communication(BC)is con-sidered a key technology in self-sustainable commu-nications,and the unmanned aerial vehicle(UAV)as a data collector can improve the efficiency of data col-lection.We consider a UAV-aided BC system,where the power beacons(PBs)are deployed as dedicated radio frequency(RF)sources to supply power for backscatter devices(BDs).After harvesting enough energy,the BDs transmit data to the UAV.We use stochastic geometry to model the large-scale BC sys-tem.Specifically,the PBs are modeled as a type II Mat´ern hard-core point process(MHCPP II)and the BDs are modeled as a homogeneous Poisson point process(HPPP).Firstly,the BDs’activation proba-bility and average coverage probability are derived.Then,to maximize the energy efficiency(EE),we opti-mize the RF power of the PBs under different PB den-sities.Furthermore,we compare the coverage proba-bility and EE performance of our system with a bench-mark scheme,in which the distribution of PBs is mod-eled as a HPPP.Simulation results show that the PBs modeled as MHCPP II has better performance,and we found that the higher the density of PBs,the smaller the RF power required,and the EE is also higher. 展开更多
关键词 backscatter communication coverage probability energy efficiency UAV-assisted commu-nication
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Compatible basal area models for live and dying trees using diffusion processes
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作者 Petras Rupšys 《Journal of Forestry Research》 2025年第3期120-138,共19页
Models that predict a forest stand’s evolution are essential for developing plans for sustainable management.A simple mathematical framework was developed that con-siders the individual tree and stand basal area unde... Models that predict a forest stand’s evolution are essential for developing plans for sustainable management.A simple mathematical framework was developed that con-siders the individual tree and stand basal area under random resource competition and is based on two assumptions:(1)a sigmoid-type stochastic process governs tree and stand basal area dynamics of living and dying trees,and(2)the total area that a tree may potentially occupy determines the number of trees per hectare.The most effective method to satisfy these requirements is formalizing each tree diameter and potentially occupied area using Gompertz-type stochastic differential equations governed by fixed and mixed-effect parameters.Data from permanent experimental plots from long-term Lithuania experiments were used to construct the tree and stand basal area models.The new models were relatively unbiased for live trees of all species,including silver birch(Betula pen-dula Roth)and downy birch(Betula pubescens Ehrh.),[spruce(Picea abies),and pine(Pinus sylvestris)].Less reliable predic-tions were made for the basal area of dying trees.Pines gave the highest accuracy prediction of mean basal area among all live trees.The mean basal area prediction for all dying trees was lower than that for live trees.Among all species,pine also had the best average basal area prediction accuracy for live trees.Newly developed basal area growth and yield models can be recommended despite their complex formulation and implementation challenges,particularly in situations when data is scarce.This is because the newly observed plot provides sufficient information to calibrate random effects. 展开更多
关键词 Basal area Occupied area Stochastic process Probability distribution
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Bayesian Inference of Hit Probability of Ammunition Based on Normal-Inverse Wishart Distribution
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作者 Meng Yang Weimin Ye +1 位作者 Huaiqiang Zhang Aming Ye 《Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology》 2025年第4期373-387,共15页
In order to solve the problems of high experimental cost of ammunition,lack of field test data,and the difficulty in applying the ammunition hit probability estimation method in classical statistics,this paper assumes... In order to solve the problems of high experimental cost of ammunition,lack of field test data,and the difficulty in applying the ammunition hit probability estimation method in classical statistics,this paper assumes that the projectile dispersion of ammunition is a two-dimensional joint normal distribution,and proposes a new Bayesian inference method of ammunition hit probability based on normal-inverse Wishart distribution.Firstly,the conjugate joint prior distribution of the projectile dispersion characteristic parameters is determined to be a normal inverse Wishart distribution,and the hyperparameters in the prior distribution are estimated by simulation experimental data and historical measured data.Secondly,the field test data is integrated with the Bayesian formula to obtain the joint posterior distribution of the projectile dispersion characteristic parameters,and then the hit probability of the ammunition is estimated.Finally,compared with the binomial distribution method,the method in this paper can consider the dispersion information of ammunition projectiles,and the hit probability information is more fully utilized.The hit probability results are closer to the field shooting test samples.This method has strong applicability and is conducive to obtaining more accurate hit probability estimation results. 展开更多
关键词 AMMUNITION Bayesian inference hit probability normal-inverse Wishart distribution projectile dispersion
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