<strong>Objective:</strong> To evaluate early prediction value of IPS<span> </span><span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">combined with SchE and D-dimer detection for in...<strong>Objective:</strong> To evaluate early prediction value of IPS<span> </span><span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">combined with SchE and D-dimer detection for infection and survival in critically ill patients. </span><b><span style="font-family:Verdana;">Methods:</span></b></span><b><span> </span></b><span style="font-family:Verdana;">199 critically ill patients admitted to the emergency intensive care unit (EICU) of our hospital from December 2018 to December 2019 were retrospectively analyzed, including 110 infection patients (infection group) and 89 non-infection</span><span> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">patients (non-infection group).</span><span> </span><span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">According to the survival, the infection group was divided into death group (68 cases) and survival group (42 cases). The IPS, APACHE II, SOFA and SchE, D-dimer expression levels were detected and compared;Univariate and logistic regression analysis were used to evaluate the independent prognostic factors. </span><b><span style="font-family:Verdana;">Results: </span></b><span style="font-family:Verdana;">The IPS and APACHE II of patients in the infected group were higher than those in the non-infected group, the level of SchE was lower than that in the non-infected group, and the level of D-dimer was higher than that in the non-infected group (</span><i><span style="font-family:Verdana;">P</span></i></span><i><span> </span></i><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><</span><span> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">0.001). IPS, SOFA, APACHE</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> II</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">, SchE, D-dimer, invasive mechanical ventilation, septic shock, and ICU length</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> of stay had significant influence on the prognosis of critically ill patients</span><span> </span><span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">(</span><i><span style="font-family:Verdana;">P</span></i></span><i><span> </span></i><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><</span><span> </span><span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">0.001). Logistic regression analysis showed that IPS (</span><i><span style="font-family:Verdana;">OR</span></i><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> = 2.821, </span><span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">95%</span><i><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> CI</span></i></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> 1.501</span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> - </span><span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">5.227), SOFA (</span><i><span style="font-family:Verdana;">OR</span></i><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> = 5.078, </span><span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">95% </span><i><span style="font-family:Verdana;">CI</span></i></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> 3.327 </span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">-</span><span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> 7.690), APACHE II (</span><i><span style="font-family:Verdana;">OR</span></i><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> = 14.308, </span><span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">95% </span><i><span style="font-family:Verdana;">CI</span></i></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> 8.901 </span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">-</span><span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> 21.893), SchE (</span><i><span style="font-family:Verdana;">OR</span></i><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> = 0.223, </span><span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">95%</span><i><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> CI</span></i></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> 0.165 </span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">-</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> 0.291), D-dimer</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> (</span><i><span style="font-family:Verdana;">OR</span></i><i><span> </span></i><span style="font-family:Verdana;">=</span><span> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">2.10</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">, </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">95%</span><i><span> </span></i><i><span style="font-family:Verdana;">CI</span></i><i><span> </span></i><span style="font-family:Verdana;">1.55</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> - </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">2.85</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">)</span><span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">, septic shock (</span><i><span style="font-family:Verdana;">OR</span></i><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> = 9.948,</span></span><span> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">95%</span><span> </span><i><span style="font-family:Verdana;">CI</span></i><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> 7.012</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> - </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">17.012)</span><span> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">were independent factors affecting the prognosis of critically ill patients with infection</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> (</span><i><span style="font-family:Verdana;">P</span></i><span> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><</span><span> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">0.001</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">)</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">.</span><span> </span><b><span style="font-family:Verdana;">Conclusion:</span></b><b><span> </span></b><span style="font-family:Verdana;">IPS and D-dimer expression level in infected patients were increased and SchE decreased significantly compared with those in non-infected patients, and they significantly correlated with</span><span> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">disease severity of infected</span><span> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">patients</span><span> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">and could be early prediction</span><span> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">for prognosis.</span>展开更多
Traditional precipitation skill scores are affected by the well-known"double penalty"problem caused by the slight spatial or temporal mismatches between forecasts and observations.The fuzzy(neighborhood)meth...Traditional precipitation skill scores are affected by the well-known"double penalty"problem caused by the slight spatial or temporal mismatches between forecasts and observations.The fuzzy(neighborhood)method has been proposed for deterministic simulations and shown some ability to solve this problem.The increasing resolution of ensemble forecasts of precipitation means that they now have similar problems as deterministic forecasts.We developed an ensemble precipitation verification skill score,i.e.,the Spatial Continuous Ranked Probability Score(SCRPS),and used it to extend spatial verification from deterministic into ensemble forecasts.The SCRPS is a spatial technique based on the Continuous Ranked Probability Score(CRPS)and the fuzzy method.A fast binomial random variation generator was used to obtain random indexes based on the climatological mean observed frequency,which were then used in the reference score to calculate the skill score of the SCRPS.The verification results obtained using daily forecast products from the ECMWF ensemble forecasts and quantitative precipitation estimation products from the OPERA datasets during June-August 2018 shows that the spatial score is not affected by the number of ensemble forecast members and that a consistent assessment can be obtained.The score can reflect the performance of ensemble forecasts in modeling precipitation and thus can be widely used.展开更多
文摘<strong>Objective:</strong> To evaluate early prediction value of IPS<span> </span><span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">combined with SchE and D-dimer detection for infection and survival in critically ill patients. </span><b><span style="font-family:Verdana;">Methods:</span></b></span><b><span> </span></b><span style="font-family:Verdana;">199 critically ill patients admitted to the emergency intensive care unit (EICU) of our hospital from December 2018 to December 2019 were retrospectively analyzed, including 110 infection patients (infection group) and 89 non-infection</span><span> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">patients (non-infection group).</span><span> </span><span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">According to the survival, the infection group was divided into death group (68 cases) and survival group (42 cases). The IPS, APACHE II, SOFA and SchE, D-dimer expression levels were detected and compared;Univariate and logistic regression analysis were used to evaluate the independent prognostic factors. </span><b><span style="font-family:Verdana;">Results: </span></b><span style="font-family:Verdana;">The IPS and APACHE II of patients in the infected group were higher than those in the non-infected group, the level of SchE was lower than that in the non-infected group, and the level of D-dimer was higher than that in the non-infected group (</span><i><span style="font-family:Verdana;">P</span></i></span><i><span> </span></i><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><</span><span> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">0.001). IPS, SOFA, APACHE</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> II</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">, SchE, D-dimer, invasive mechanical ventilation, septic shock, and ICU length</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> of stay had significant influence on the prognosis of critically ill patients</span><span> </span><span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">(</span><i><span style="font-family:Verdana;">P</span></i></span><i><span> </span></i><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><</span><span> </span><span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">0.001). Logistic regression analysis showed that IPS (</span><i><span style="font-family:Verdana;">OR</span></i><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> = 2.821, </span><span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">95%</span><i><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> CI</span></i></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> 1.501</span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> - </span><span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">5.227), SOFA (</span><i><span style="font-family:Verdana;">OR</span></i><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> = 5.078, </span><span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">95% </span><i><span style="font-family:Verdana;">CI</span></i></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> 3.327 </span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">-</span><span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> 7.690), APACHE II (</span><i><span style="font-family:Verdana;">OR</span></i><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> = 14.308, </span><span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">95% </span><i><span style="font-family:Verdana;">CI</span></i></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> 8.901 </span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">-</span><span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> 21.893), SchE (</span><i><span style="font-family:Verdana;">OR</span></i><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> = 0.223, </span><span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">95%</span><i><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> CI</span></i></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> 0.165 </span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">-</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> 0.291), D-dimer</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> (</span><i><span style="font-family:Verdana;">OR</span></i><i><span> </span></i><span style="font-family:Verdana;">=</span><span> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">2.10</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">, </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">95%</span><i><span> </span></i><i><span style="font-family:Verdana;">CI</span></i><i><span> </span></i><span style="font-family:Verdana;">1.55</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> - </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">2.85</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">)</span><span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">, septic shock (</span><i><span style="font-family:Verdana;">OR</span></i><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> = 9.948,</span></span><span> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">95%</span><span> </span><i><span style="font-family:Verdana;">CI</span></i><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> 7.012</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> - </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">17.012)</span><span> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">were independent factors affecting the prognosis of critically ill patients with infection</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> (</span><i><span style="font-family:Verdana;">P</span></i><span> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><</span><span> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">0.001</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">)</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">.</span><span> </span><b><span style="font-family:Verdana;">Conclusion:</span></b><b><span> </span></b><span style="font-family:Verdana;">IPS and D-dimer expression level in infected patients were increased and SchE decreased significantly compared with those in non-infected patients, and they significantly correlated with</span><span> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">disease severity of infected</span><span> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">patients</span><span> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">and could be early prediction</span><span> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">for prognosis.</span>
基金Natural Science Foundation of China(41905091)National Key R&D Program of China(2017YFA0604502,2017YFC1501904)
文摘Traditional precipitation skill scores are affected by the well-known"double penalty"problem caused by the slight spatial or temporal mismatches between forecasts and observations.The fuzzy(neighborhood)method has been proposed for deterministic simulations and shown some ability to solve this problem.The increasing resolution of ensemble forecasts of precipitation means that they now have similar problems as deterministic forecasts.We developed an ensemble precipitation verification skill score,i.e.,the Spatial Continuous Ranked Probability Score(SCRPS),and used it to extend spatial verification from deterministic into ensemble forecasts.The SCRPS is a spatial technique based on the Continuous Ranked Probability Score(CRPS)and the fuzzy method.A fast binomial random variation generator was used to obtain random indexes based on the climatological mean observed frequency,which were then used in the reference score to calculate the skill score of the SCRPS.The verification results obtained using daily forecast products from the ECMWF ensemble forecasts and quantitative precipitation estimation products from the OPERA datasets during June-August 2018 shows that the spatial score is not affected by the number of ensemble forecast members and that a consistent assessment can be obtained.The score can reflect the performance of ensemble forecasts in modeling precipitation and thus can be widely used.
