This paper proposed an efficient research method for high-dimensional uncertainty quantification of projectile motion in the barrel of a truck-mounted howitzer.Firstly,the dynamic model of projectile motion is establi...This paper proposed an efficient research method for high-dimensional uncertainty quantification of projectile motion in the barrel of a truck-mounted howitzer.Firstly,the dynamic model of projectile motion is established considering the flexible deformation of the barrel and the interaction between the projectile and the barrel.Subsequently,the accuracy of the dynamic model is verified based on the external ballistic projectile attitude test platform.Furthermore,the probability density evolution method(PDEM)is developed to high-dimensional uncertainty quantification of projectile motion.The engineering example highlights the results of the proposed method are consistent with the results obtained by the Monte Carlo Simulation(MCS).Finally,the influence of parameter uncertainty on the projectile disturbance at muzzle under different working conditions is analyzed.The results show that the disturbance of the pitch angular,pitch angular velocity and pitch angular of velocity decreases with the increase of launching angle,and the random parameter ranges of both the projectile and coupling model have similar influence on the disturbance of projectile angular motion at muzzle.展开更多
A new analysis framework based on probability density evolution method(PDEM)and its Chebyshev collocation solution are introduced to predict the dynamic response and short-term extreme load of offshore wind turbine(OW...A new analysis framework based on probability density evolution method(PDEM)and its Chebyshev collocation solution are introduced to predict the dynamic response and short-term extreme load of offshore wind turbine(OWT)towers subjected to random sea state.With regard to the stochastic responses,random function method is employed to generate samples of sea elevation,the probability density evolution equation(PDEE)is solved to calculate time-variant probability density functions of structural responses.For the probabilistic load estimation,a FAST model of NREL 5MW offshore turbine is established to obtain samples of bending moment at the tower base.The equivalent extreme event theory is used to construct a virtual stochastic process(VSP)to assess the short-term extreme load.The results indicate that the proposed approach can predict time-variant probability density functions of the structural responses,and shows good agreement with Monte Carlo simulations.Additionally,the predicted short-term extreme load can capture the fluctuation at the tail of the extreme value distribution,thus is more rational than results from the typical distribution models.Overall,the proposed method shows good adaptation,precision and efficiency for the dynamic response analysis and load estimation of OWT towers.展开更多
The joint probability density fimction （PDF） of different structural responses is a very important topic in the stochastic response analysis of nonlinear structures. In this paper, the probability density evolution ...The joint probability density fimction （PDF） of different structural responses is a very important topic in the stochastic response analysis of nonlinear structures. In this paper, the probability density evolution method, which is successfully developed to capture the instantaneous PDF of an arbitrary single response of interest, is extended to evaluate the joint PDF of any two responses. A two-dimensional partial differential equation in terms of the joint PDF is established. The strategy of selecting representative points via the number theoretical method and sieved by a hyper-ellipsoid is outlined. A two-dimensional difference scheme is developed. The free vibration of an SDOF system is examined to verify the proposed method, and a flame structure exhibiting hysteresis subjected to stochastic ground motion is investigated. It is pointed out that the correlation of different responses results from the fact that randomness of different responses comes from the same set of basic random parameters involved. In other words, the essence of the probabilistic correlation is a physical correlation.展开更多
In Bayesian multi-target fltering,knowledge of measurement noise variance is very important.Signifcant mismatches in noise parameters will result in biased estimates.In this paper,a new particle flter for a probabilit...In Bayesian multi-target fltering,knowledge of measurement noise variance is very important.Signifcant mismatches in noise parameters will result in biased estimates.In this paper,a new particle flter for a probability hypothesis density（PHD）flter handling unknown measurement noise variances is proposed.The approach is based on marginalizing the unknown parameters out of the posterior distribution by using variational Bayesian（VB）methods.Moreover,the sequential Monte Carlo method is used to approximate the posterior intensity considering non-linear and non-Gaussian conditions.Unlike other particle flters for this challenging class of PHD flters,the proposed method can adaptively learn the unknown and time-varying noise variances while fltering.Simulation results show that the proposed method improves estimation accuracy in terms of both the number of targets and their states.展开更多
The nonstationary probability densities of system response of a single-degree- of-freedom system with lightly nonlinear damping and strongly nonlinear stiffness subject to modulated white noise excitation are studied....The nonstationary probability densities of system response of a single-degree- of-freedom system with lightly nonlinear damping and strongly nonlinear stiffness subject to modulated white noise excitation are studied. Using the stochastic averaging method based on the generalized harmonic functions, the averaged Fokl^er-Planck-Kolmogorov equation governing the nonstationary probability density of the amplitude is derived. The solution of the equation is approximated by the series expansion in terms of a set of properly selected basis functions with time-dependent coefficients. According to the Galerkin method, the time-dependent coefficients can be solved from a set of first-order linear differential equations. Then, the semi-analytical formulae of the nonstationary probability density of the amplitude response as well as the nonstationary probability density of the state response and the statistic moments of the amplitude response can be obtained. A van der Pol-Duffing oscillator subject to modulated white noise is given as an example to illustrate the proposed procedures. The effects of the system parameters, such as the linear damping coefficient and the nonlinear stiffness coefficient, on the system response are discussed.展开更多
Ship rolling in random waves is a complicated nonlinear motion that contributes substantially to ship instability and capsizing.The finite element method(FEM)is employed in this paper to solve the Fokker Planck(FP)equ...Ship rolling in random waves is a complicated nonlinear motion that contributes substantially to ship instability and capsizing.The finite element method(FEM)is employed in this paper to solve the Fokker Planck(FP)equations numerically for homoclinic and heteroclinic ship rolling under random waves described as periodic and Gaussian white noise excitations.The transient joint probability density functions(PDFs)and marginal PDFs of the rolling responses are also obtained.The effects of stimulation strength on ship rolling are further investigated from a probabilistic standpoint.The homoclinic ship rolling has two rolling states,the connection between the two peaks of the PDF is observed when the periodic excitation amplitude or the noise intensity is large,and the PDF is remarkably distributed in phase space.These phenomena increase the possibility of a random jump in ship motion states and the uncertainty of ship rolling,and the ship may lose stability due to unforeseeable facts or conditions.Meanwhile,only one rolling state is observed when the ship is in heteroclinic rolling.As the periodic excitation amplitude grows,the PDF concentration increases and drifts away from the beginning location,suggesting that the ship rolling substantially changes in a cycle and its stability is low.The PDF becomes increasingly uniform and covers a large region as the noise intensity increases,reducing the certainty of ship rolling and navigation safety.The current numerical solutions and analyses may be applied to evaluate the stability of a rolling ship in irregular waves and capsize mechanisms.展开更多
The principal resonance of Duffing random external excitation was investigated. oscillator to combined deterministic and The random excitation was taken to be white noise or harmonic with separable random amplitude an...The principal resonance of Duffing random external excitation was investigated. oscillator to combined deterministic and The random excitation was taken to be white noise or harmonic with separable random amplitude and phase. The method of multiple scales was used to determine the equations of modulation of amplitude and phase. The one peak probability density function of each of the two stable stationary solutions was calculated by the linearization method. These two one-peak-density functions were combined using the probability of realization of the two stable stationary solutions to obtain the double peak probability density function. The theoretical analysis are verified by numerical results.展开更多
针对覆冰输电导线舞动问题,基于概率密度演化法,提出了一种覆冰输电导线起舞概率分析方法。首先,建立了基于临界风速的覆冰输电导线起舞功能函数,结合具有3个平动自由度与1个扭转自由度的三结点索单元的有限元模型与李雅普诺夫稳定性定...针对覆冰输电导线舞动问题,基于概率密度演化法,提出了一种覆冰输电导线起舞概率分析方法。首先,建立了基于临界风速的覆冰输电导线起舞功能函数,结合具有3个平动自由度与1个扭转自由度的三结点索单元的有限元模型与李雅普诺夫稳定性定理,求解了覆冰输电导线起舞临界风速;其次,基于概率密度演化法,发展了一种覆冰输电导线起舞概率评估框架,并进行覆冰输电导线起舞概率的计算与分析;最后,获得了某单跨覆冰导线算例的起舞概率并进行了参数分析。分析结果表明:本研究方法可准确计算该单跨输电导线的起舞概率,在计算效率上相比拉丁超立方抽样-蒙特卡洛模拟法(Latin hypercube sampling-Monte Carlo simulation,简称LHS-MCS)具有显著优势;档距、初始水平张力与初始风攻角对该单跨输电导线的起舞概率影响较大。展开更多
The paper studies the parametric stochastic roll motion in the random waves.The differential equation of the ship parametric roll under random wave is established with considering the nonlinear damping and ship speed....The paper studies the parametric stochastic roll motion in the random waves.The differential equation of the ship parametric roll under random wave is established with considering the nonlinear damping and ship speed.Random sea surface is treated as a narrow-band stochastic process,and the stochastic parametric excitation is studied based on the effective wave theory.The nonlinear restored arm function obtained from the numerical simulation is expressed as the approximate analytic function.By using the stochastic averaging method,the differential equation of motion is transformed into Ito’s stochastic differential equation.The steady-state probability density function of roll motion is obtained,and the results are validated with the numerical simulation and model test.展开更多
A method for analysing the vehicle-bridge interaction system with enhanced objectivity is proposed in the paper, which considers the time-variant and random characteristics and allows finding the power spectral densit...A method for analysing the vehicle-bridge interaction system with enhanced objectivity is proposed in the paper, which considers the time-variant and random characteristics and allows finding the power spectral densities(PSDs) of the system responses directly from the PSD of track irregularity. The pseudo-excitation method is adopted in the proposed framework, where the vehicle is modelled as a rigid body and the bridge is modelled using the finite element method. The vertical and lateral wheel-rail pseudo-excitations are established assuming the wheel and rail have the same displacement and using the simplified Kalker creep theory, respectively. The power spectrum function of vehicle and bridge responses is calculated by history integral. Based on the dynamic responses from the deterministic and random analyses of the interaction system, and the probability density functions for three safety factors(derailment coefficient, wheel unloading rate, and lateral wheel axle force) are obtained, and the probabilities of the safety factors exceeding the given limits are calculated. The proposed method is validated by Monte Carlo simulations using a case study of a high-speed train running over a bridge with five simply supported spans and four piers.展开更多
The PDFs(probability density functions) and probability of a ship rolling under the random parametric and forced excitations were studied by a semi-analytical method. The rolling motion equation of the ship in random ...The PDFs(probability density functions) and probability of a ship rolling under the random parametric and forced excitations were studied by a semi-analytical method. The rolling motion equation of the ship in random oblique waves was established. The righting arm obtained by the numerical simulation was approximately fitted by an analytical function. The irregular waves were decomposed into two Gauss stationary random processes, and the CARMA(2, 1) model was used to fit the spectral density function of parametric and forced excitations. The stochastic energy envelope averaging method was used to solve the PDFs and the probability. The validity of the semi-analytical method was verified by the Monte Carlo method. The C11 ship was taken as an example, and the influences of the system parameters on the PDFs and probability were analyzed. The results show that the probability of ship rolling is affected by the characteristic wave height, wave length, and the heading angle. In order to provide proper advice for the ship’s manoeuvring, the parametric excitations should be considered appropriately when the ship navigates in the oblique seas.展开更多
In this paper, the method proposed recently by the author for the solution of probability density function (PDF) of nonlinear stochastic systems is presented in detail and extended for more general problems of stochas...In this paper, the method proposed recently by the author for the solution of probability density function (PDF) of nonlinear stochastic systems is presented in detail and extended for more general problems of stochastic differential equations (SDE), therefore the Fokker Planck Kolmogorov (FPK) equation is expressed in general form with no limitation on the degree of nonlinearity of the SDE, the type of δ correlated excitations, the existence of multiplicative excitations, and the dimension of SDE or FPK equation. Examples are given and numerical results are provided for comparing with known exact solution to show the effectiveness of the method.展开更多
The stochastic response of a noisy system with non-negative restoring force is investigated. The generalized cell mapping （GCM） method compute the transient and stationary probability density functions （PDFs） real...The stochastic response of a noisy system with non-negative restoring force is investigated. The generalized cell mapping （GCM） method compute the transient and stationary probability density functions （PDFs） real-power is used to Combined with the global properties of the noise-free system, the evolutionary process of the tran- sient PDFs is revealed. The results show that stochastic P-bifurcation occurs when the system parameter varies in the response analysis and the stationary PDF evolves from bimodal to unimodal along the unstable manifold during the bifurcation.展开更多
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.11472137).
文摘This paper proposed an efficient research method for high-dimensional uncertainty quantification of projectile motion in the barrel of a truck-mounted howitzer.Firstly,the dynamic model of projectile motion is established considering the flexible deformation of the barrel and the interaction between the projectile and the barrel.Subsequently,the accuracy of the dynamic model is verified based on the external ballistic projectile attitude test platform.Furthermore,the probability density evolution method(PDEM)is developed to high-dimensional uncertainty quantification of projectile motion.The engineering example highlights the results of the proposed method are consistent with the results obtained by the Monte Carlo Simulation(MCS).Finally,the influence of parameter uncertainty on the projectile disturbance at muzzle under different working conditions is analyzed.The results show that the disturbance of the pitch angular,pitch angular velocity and pitch angular of velocity decreases with the increase of launching angle,and the random parameter ranges of both the projectile and coupling model have similar influence on the disturbance of projectile angular motion at muzzle.
基金This research is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51578444)Key Science Research Program of Education Department of Shaanxi Province(Grant No.20JY032).
文摘A new analysis framework based on probability density evolution method(PDEM)and its Chebyshev collocation solution are introduced to predict the dynamic response and short-term extreme load of offshore wind turbine(OWT)towers subjected to random sea state.With regard to the stochastic responses,random function method is employed to generate samples of sea elevation,the probability density evolution equation(PDEE)is solved to calculate time-variant probability density functions of structural responses.For the probabilistic load estimation,a FAST model of NREL 5MW offshore turbine is established to obtain samples of bending moment at the tower base.The equivalent extreme event theory is used to construct a virtual stochastic process(VSP)to assess the short-term extreme load.The results indicate that the proposed approach can predict time-variant probability density functions of the structural responses,and shows good agreement with Monte Carlo simulations.Additionally,the predicted short-term extreme load can capture the fluctuation at the tail of the extreme value distribution,thus is more rational than results from the typical distribution models.Overall,the proposed method shows good adaptation,precision and efficiency for the dynamic response analysis and load estimation of OWT towers.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of Chinafor Innovative Research Groups Under Grant No.50621062the National Natural Science Foundation of China forYoung Scholars Under Grant No.10402030
文摘The joint probability density fimction （PDF） of different structural responses is a very important topic in the stochastic response analysis of nonlinear structures. In this paper, the probability density evolution method, which is successfully developed to capture the instantaneous PDF of an arbitrary single response of interest, is extended to evaluate the joint PDF of any two responses. A two-dimensional partial differential equation in terms of the joint PDF is established. The strategy of selecting representative points via the number theoretical method and sieved by a hyper-ellipsoid is outlined. A two-dimensional difference scheme is developed. The free vibration of an SDOF system is examined to verify the proposed method, and a flame structure exhibiting hysteresis subjected to stochastic ground motion is investigated. It is pointed out that the correlation of different responses results from the fact that randomness of different responses comes from the same set of basic random parameters involved. In other words, the essence of the probabilistic correlation is a physical correlation.
基金supported by National High-tech Research and Development Program of China (No.2011AA7014061)
文摘In Bayesian multi-target fltering,knowledge of measurement noise variance is very important.Signifcant mismatches in noise parameters will result in biased estimates.In this paper,a new particle flter for a probability hypothesis density（PHD）flter handling unknown measurement noise variances is proposed.The approach is based on marginalizing the unknown parameters out of the posterior distribution by using variational Bayesian（VB）methods.Moreover,the sequential Monte Carlo method is used to approximate the posterior intensity considering non-linear and non-Gaussian conditions.Unlike other particle flters for this challenging class of PHD flters,the proposed method can adaptively learn the unknown and time-varying noise variances while fltering.Simulation results show that the proposed method improves estimation accuracy in terms of both the number of targets and their states.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.11025211)the Zhejiang Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China(No.Z6090125)the Special Fund for National Excellent Ph.D.Dissertation and Research Grant Council of Hong Kong City(No.U115807)
文摘The nonstationary probability densities of system response of a single-degree- of-freedom system with lightly nonlinear damping and strongly nonlinear stiffness subject to modulated white noise excitation are studied. Using the stochastic averaging method based on the generalized harmonic functions, the averaged Fokl^er-Planck-Kolmogorov equation governing the nonstationary probability density of the amplitude is derived. The solution of the equation is approximated by the series expansion in terms of a set of properly selected basis functions with time-dependent coefficients. According to the Galerkin method, the time-dependent coefficients can be solved from a set of first-order linear differential equations. Then, the semi-analytical formulae of the nonstationary probability density of the amplitude response as well as the nonstationary probability density of the state response and the statistic moments of the amplitude response can be obtained. A van der Pol-Duffing oscillator subject to modulated white noise is given as an example to illustrate the proposed procedures. The effects of the system parameters, such as the linear damping coefficient and the nonlinear stiffness coefficient, on the system response are discussed.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.52088102,51875540)。
文摘Ship rolling in random waves is a complicated nonlinear motion that contributes substantially to ship instability and capsizing.The finite element method(FEM)is employed in this paper to solve the Fokker Planck(FP)equations numerically for homoclinic and heteroclinic ship rolling under random waves described as periodic and Gaussian white noise excitations.The transient joint probability density functions(PDFs)and marginal PDFs of the rolling responses are also obtained.The effects of stimulation strength on ship rolling are further investigated from a probabilistic standpoint.The homoclinic ship rolling has two rolling states,the connection between the two peaks of the PDF is observed when the periodic excitation amplitude or the noise intensity is large,and the PDF is remarkably distributed in phase space.These phenomena increase the possibility of a random jump in ship motion states and the uncertainty of ship rolling,and the ship may lose stability due to unforeseeable facts or conditions.Meanwhile,only one rolling state is observed when the ship is in heteroclinic rolling.As the periodic excitation amplitude grows,the PDF concentration increases and drifts away from the beginning location,suggesting that the ship rolling substantially changes in a cycle and its stability is low.The PDF becomes increasingly uniform and covers a large region as the noise intensity increases,reducing the certainty of ship rolling and navigation safety.The current numerical solutions and analyses may be applied to evaluate the stability of a rolling ship in irregular waves and capsize mechanisms.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Key Program) (No.10332030)the Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province of China (No.04011640)
文摘The principal resonance of Duffing random external excitation was investigated. oscillator to combined deterministic and The random excitation was taken to be white noise or harmonic with separable random amplitude and phase. The method of multiple scales was used to determine the equations of modulation of amplitude and phase. The one peak probability density function of each of the two stable stationary solutions was calculated by the linearization method. These two one-peak-density functions were combined using the probability of realization of the two stable stationary solutions to obtain the double peak probability density function. The theoretical analysis are verified by numerical results.
文摘针对覆冰输电导线舞动问题,基于概率密度演化法,提出了一种覆冰输电导线起舞概率分析方法。首先,建立了基于临界风速的覆冰输电导线起舞功能函数,结合具有3个平动自由度与1个扭转自由度的三结点索单元的有限元模型与李雅普诺夫稳定性定理,求解了覆冰输电导线起舞临界风速;其次,基于概率密度演化法,发展了一种覆冰输电导线起舞概率评估框架,并进行覆冰输电导线起舞概率的计算与分析;最后,获得了某单跨覆冰导线算例的起舞概率并进行了参数分析。分析结果表明:本研究方法可准确计算该单跨输电导线的起舞概率,在计算效率上相比拉丁超立方抽样-蒙特卡洛模拟法(Latin hypercube sampling-Monte Carlo simulation,简称LHS-MCS)具有显著优势;档距、初始水平张力与初始风攻角对该单跨输电导线的起舞概率影响较大。
基金the State Administration of Science,Technology and Industry for National Defense of China(Grant No.B2420132001).
文摘The paper studies the parametric stochastic roll motion in the random waves.The differential equation of the ship parametric roll under random wave is established with considering the nonlinear damping and ship speed.Random sea surface is treated as a narrow-band stochastic process,and the stochastic parametric excitation is studied based on the effective wave theory.The nonlinear restored arm function obtained from the numerical simulation is expressed as the approximate analytic function.By using the stochastic averaging method,the differential equation of motion is transformed into Ito’s stochastic differential equation.The steady-state probability density function of roll motion is obtained,and the results are validated with the numerical simulation and model test.
文摘A method for analysing the vehicle-bridge interaction system with enhanced objectivity is proposed in the paper, which considers the time-variant and random characteristics and allows finding the power spectral densities(PSDs) of the system responses directly from the PSD of track irregularity. The pseudo-excitation method is adopted in the proposed framework, where the vehicle is modelled as a rigid body and the bridge is modelled using the finite element method. The vertical and lateral wheel-rail pseudo-excitations are established assuming the wheel and rail have the same displacement and using the simplified Kalker creep theory, respectively. The power spectrum function of vehicle and bridge responses is calculated by history integral. Based on the dynamic responses from the deterministic and random analyses of the interaction system, and the probability density functions for three safety factors(derailment coefficient, wheel unloading rate, and lateral wheel axle force) are obtained, and the probabilities of the safety factors exceeding the given limits are calculated. The proposed method is validated by Monte Carlo simulations using a case study of a high-speed train running over a bridge with five simply supported spans and four piers.
基金financially supported by the Project of"Nonlinear Wave Excitation and Response of Surface Vehicle"(Grant No.B2420132001)the Natural Science Foundation of Tianjin(Grant No.15JCQNJC07700)
文摘The PDFs(probability density functions) and probability of a ship rolling under the random parametric and forced excitations were studied by a semi-analytical method. The rolling motion equation of the ship in random oblique waves was established. The righting arm obtained by the numerical simulation was approximately fitted by an analytical function. The irregular waves were decomposed into two Gauss stationary random processes, and the CARMA(2, 1) model was used to fit the spectral density function of parametric and forced excitations. The stochastic energy envelope averaging method was used to solve the PDFs and the probability. The validity of the semi-analytical method was verified by the Monte Carlo method. The C11 ship was taken as an example, and the influences of the system parameters on the PDFs and probability were analyzed. The results show that the probability of ship rolling is affected by the characteristic wave height, wave length, and the heading angle. In order to provide proper advice for the ship’s manoeuvring, the parametric excitations should be considered appropriately when the ship navigates in the oblique seas.
文摘In this paper, the method proposed recently by the author for the solution of probability density function (PDF) of nonlinear stochastic systems is presented in detail and extended for more general problems of stochastic differential equations (SDE), therefore the Fokker Planck Kolmogorov (FPK) equation is expressed in general form with no limitation on the degree of nonlinearity of the SDE, the type of δ correlated excitations, the existence of multiplicative excitations, and the dimension of SDE or FPK equation. Examples are given and numerical results are provided for comparing with known exact solution to show the effectiveness of the method.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.11172233,11302169,11302170,and 11472212)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(No.3102014JCQ01079)
文摘The stochastic response of a noisy system with non-negative restoring force is investigated. The generalized cell mapping （GCM） method compute the transient and stationary probability density functions （PDFs） real-power is used to Combined with the global properties of the noise-free system, the evolutionary process of the tran- sient PDFs is revealed. The results show that stochastic P-bifurcation occurs when the system parameter varies in the response analysis and the stationary PDF evolves from bimodal to unimodal along the unstable manifold during the bifurcation.
