Some patients with systemic lupus erythematosus experience neuropsychiatric symptoms.Although magnetic resonance imaging can detect abnormal signals in the white matter of the brain,conventional methods often struggle...Some patients with systemic lupus erythematosus experience neuropsychiatric symptoms.Although magnetic resonance imaging can detect abnormal signals in the white matter of the brain,conventional methods often struggle to accurately capture microstructural changes.Various diffusion models have been used to study white matter in systemic lupus erythematosus;however,comparative analyses of their sensitivity and specificity for detecting microstructural changes remain insufficient.To address this,our team designed a diagnostic trial that used multimodal diffusion imaging techniques to observe white matter microstructural changes in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus who had neuropsychiatric symptoms,with an aim to identify key diagnostic biomarkers for these patients.Patients with active lupus who received treatment at the Department of Rheumatology and Immunology,The First Affiliated Hospital of China Medical University,from September 2023 to March 2024 were recruited.According to the standards of the American College of Rheumatology,patients with systemic lupus erythematosus who had neuropsychiatric symptoms were assigned to the systemic lupus erythematosus group,whereas those without neuropsychiatric symptoms were assigned to the non-systemic lupus erythematosus group.Additionally,healthy volunteers matched by region,sex,and age were recruited as controls.All three groups underwent the same diffusion magnetic resonance imaging examination protocol to compare differences in diffusion parameters.Advanced diffusion imaging models were able to sensitively detect microstructural changes in the white matter fibers of patients with systemic lupus erythematosus who had neuropsychiatric symptoms,with specific diffusion parameters showing significant abnormalities in key brain regions.In the left superior longitudinal fasciculus subregion and the right thalamic radiations of patients with systemic lupus erythematosus who had neuropsychiatric symptoms,we also identified abnormal diffusion characteristics that were clearly correlated with disease activity,suggesting that microstructural changes in these areas may reflect the dynamic process of neuroinflammatory damage.The present study addresses critical challenges in the diagnosis of systemic lupus erythematosus by identifying specific white matter imaging biomarkers and elucidating the association between microstructural damage and clinical manifestations.The main contributions of our study include:1)establishing axial regression probability parameters from mean apparent propagator magnetic resonance imaging as sensitive biomarkers for systemic lupus erythematosus,particularly in the third subregion of the left superior longitudinal fasciculus;2)demonstrating that multimodal diffusion imaging may be superior to conventional diffusion tensor imaging for detecting white matter microstructural abnormalities in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus;and 3)integrating tract-based spatial statistics with clinically relevant analyses to link imaging findings to pathological mechanisms.展开更多
In this paper,the joint design of transmit and receive beamformers for transmit subaperturing multiple-input-multiple-output(TS-MIMO)radar is investigated,aiming to enhance its low probability of intercept(LPI)capabil...In this paper,the joint design of transmit and receive beamformers for transmit subaperturing multiple-input-multiple-output(TS-MIMO)radar is investigated,aiming to enhance its low probability of intercept(LPI)capability.The main objective is to simultaneously minimize the transmission power,suppress the transmit sidelobe levels,and minimize the probability of intercept,thus bolstering the LPI performance of the radar system while maintaining the desired target detection performance.An alternative optimization method is proposed to jointly optimize the transmit and receive beamformers,yielding an unified LPI optimization framework.Particularly,the proposed iterative algorithm based on the Lagrange duality theory for transmit beamforming is more efficient than the conventional convex optimization method.Numerical experiments highlight the effectiveness of the proposed approach in sidelobe suppression and computational efficiency.展开更多
In this study,the effects of laser fields that can be achieved in the near future on cluster penetration probability and half-life are quantitatively investigated.The calculation results show that extreme laser fields...In this study,the effects of laser fields that can be achieved in the near future on cluster penetration probability and half-life are quantitatively investigated.The calculation results show that extreme laser fields can slightly change the cluster-decay half-life by affecting the penetration probability within a narrow range.Subsequently,we discuss the correlation between the change rate of the penetration probability and the tunneling path.The results indicate that for different parent nuclei emitting the same cluster,nuclei with longer tunneling paths are more easily affected by the laser fields.The shell effect on this correlation is also observed.In addition,the impact of laser fields on the penetration probability in any direction is investigated.展开更多
The western Los Angeles(LA)wildfires of early January 2025 caused catastrophic social and environmental impacts,drawing widespread attention.This study investigates the characteristics of these wildfires and quantifie...The western Los Angeles(LA)wildfires of early January 2025 caused catastrophic social and environmental impacts,drawing widespread attention.This study investigates the characteristics of these wildfires and quantifies the influence of heat and drought on their likelihood using a copula-based Bayesian probability framework.The wildfires were characterized by burned area(BA)and intensity(fire radiative power,FRP).The criteria establishing the presence of“hot drought”conditions were identified using the 5-day Standardized Temperature Index(STI)and 75-day Standardized Precipitation Index(SPI),respectively.The wildfire outbreak began on 7 January 2025 and burned for more than six days,with the total burned area exceeding 245 km^(2) and the cumulative FRP exceeding 41060 MW.Based on satellite-derived active fire observations from 2001 to 2025,we estimate that such large and intense wildfires during LA’s rainy season represent a once-in-a-67-year event.The wildfires were largely driven by the combination of hot and dry conditions,which dried out soils and vegetation that had proliferated due to above-average precipitation in previous winter seasons,thereby providing abundant fuel.Our seasonal analysis reveals that extreme drought increased the probability of wildfires matching the 2025 intensity and BA by 54%and 75%,respectively.Hot drought further amplified these probabilities by 149%(intensity)and 210%(BA).These findings suggest an elevated risk of large wildfires under hot drought conditions,contributing to their expansion into the non-traditional fire season.展开更多
In an actual control system, it is often difficult to find out where the faults are if only based on the outside fault phenomena, acquired frequently from a fault system. So the fault diagnosis by outside fault phenom...In an actual control system, it is often difficult to find out where the faults are if only based on the outside fault phenomena, acquired frequently from a fault system. So the fault diagnosis by outside fault phenomena is considered. Based on the theory of fuzzy recognition and fault diagnosis, this method only depends on experience and statistical data to set up fuzzy query relationship between the outside phenomena (fault characters) and the fault sources (fault patterns). From this relationship the most probable fault sources can be obtained, to attain the goal of quick diagnosis. Based on the above approach, the standard fuzzy relationship matrix is stored in the computer as a system database. And experiment data are given to show the fault diagnosis results. The important parameters can be on line sampled and analyzed, and when faults occur, faults can be found, the alarm is given and the controller output is regulated.展开更多
A flame length optimization scheme is proposed for multi-antenna downlink systems to guarantee diverse delay- bound violation probability constraints. Due to the difficulties of extracting the quality of service （QoS...A flame length optimization scheme is proposed for multi-antenna downlink systems to guarantee diverse delay- bound violation probability constraints. Due to the difficulties of extracting the quality of service （QoS） metrics from the conventional physical-layer channel models, the link-layer models named effective bandwidth and effective capacity are applied to statistically characterize the source traffic patterns and the queuing service dynamics. With these link-layer models, the source traffic process and the channel service process are mapped to certain QoS parameters. The packet delay-bound violation probability constraints are converted into minimum data rate constraints and the optimization problem is thus formulated into simultaneous inequalities. With the assumption of ergodic block-fading channels, the optimal frame lengths of single-user and multiuser systems are calculated respectively by numerical iterative methods. Theoretical analyses and simulation results show that the given delay-bound violation probability constraints are well satisfied with the optimal frame length.展开更多
The structural system failure probability(SFP) is a valuable tool for evaluating the global safety level of concrete gravity dams.Traditional methods for estimating the failure probabilities are based on defined mathe...The structural system failure probability(SFP) is a valuable tool for evaluating the global safety level of concrete gravity dams.Traditional methods for estimating the failure probabilities are based on defined mathematical descriptions,namely,limit state functions of failure modes.Several problems are to be solved in the use of traditional methods for gravity dams.One is how to define the limit state function really reflecting the mechanical mechanism of the failure mode;another is how to understand the relationship among failure modes and enable the probability of the whole structure to be determined.Performing SFP analysis for a gravity dam system is a challenging task.This work proposes a novel nonlinear finite-element-based SFP analysis method for gravity dams.Firstly,reasonable nonlinear constitutive modes for dam concrete,concrete/rock interface and rock foundation are respectively introduced according to corresponding mechanical mechanisms.Meanwhile the response surface(RS) method is used to model limit state functions of main failure modes through the Monte Carlo(MC) simulation results of the dam-interface-foundation interaction finite element(FE) analysis.Secondly,a numerical SFP method is studied to compute the probabilities of several failure modes efficiently by simple matrix integration operations.Then,the nonlinear FE-based SFP analysis methodology for gravity dams considering correlated failure modes with the additional sensitivity analysis is proposed.Finally,a comprehensive computational platform for interfacing the proposed method with the open source FE code Code Aster is developed via a freely available MATLAB software tool(FERUM).This methodology is demonstrated by a case study of an existing gravity dam analysis,in which the dominant failure modes are identified,and the corresponding performance functions are established.Then,the dam failure probability of the structural system is obtained by the proposed method considering the correlation relationship of main failure modes on the basis of the mechanical mechanism analysis with the MC-FE simulations.展开更多
The response of the train–bridge system has an obvious random behavior.A high traffic density and a long maintenance period of a track will result in a substantial increase in the number of trains running on a bridge...The response of the train–bridge system has an obvious random behavior.A high traffic density and a long maintenance period of a track will result in a substantial increase in the number of trains running on a bridge,and there is small likelihood that the maximum responses of the train and bridge happen in the total maintenance period of the track.Firstly,the coupling model of train–bridge systems is reviewed.Then,an ensemble method is presented,which can estimate the small probabilities of a dynamic system with stochastic excitations.The main idea of the ensemble method is to use the NARX(nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous input)model to replace the physical model and apply subset simulation with splitting to obtain the extreme distribution.Finally,the efficiency of the suggested method is compared with the direct Monte Carlo simulation method,and the probability exceedance of train responses under the vertical track irregularity is discussed.The results show that when the small probability of train responses under vertical track irregularity is estimated,the ensemble method can reduce both the calculation time of a single sample and the required number of samples.展开更多
A novel strategy of probability density function （PDF） shape control is proposed in stochastic systems. The control er is designed whose parameters are optimal y obtained through the improved particle swarm optimiza...A novel strategy of probability density function （PDF） shape control is proposed in stochastic systems. The control er is designed whose parameters are optimal y obtained through the improved particle swarm optimization algorithm. The parameters of the control er are viewed as the space position of a particle in particle swarm optimization algorithm and updated continual y until the control er makes the PDF of the state variable as close as possible to the expected PDF. The proposed PDF shape control technique is compared with the equivalent linearization technique through simulation experiments. The results show the superiority and the effectiveness of the proposed method. The control er is excellent in making the state PDF fol ow the expected PDF and has the very smal error between the state PDF and the expected PDF, solving the control problem of the PDF shape in stochastic systems effectively.展开更多
Methodology for the reliability analysis of hydraulic gravity dam is the key technology in current hydropower construction.Reliability analysis for the dynamical dam safety should be divided into two phases:failure mo...Methodology for the reliability analysis of hydraulic gravity dam is the key technology in current hydropower construction.Reliability analysis for the dynamical dam safety should be divided into two phases:failure mode identification and the calculation of the failure probability.Both of them are studied based on the mathematical statistics and structure reliability theory considering two kinds of uncertainty characters(earthquake variability and material randomness).Firstly,failure mode identification method is established based on the dynamical limit state system and verified through example of Koyna Dam so that the statistical law of progressive failure process in dam body are revealed; Secondly,for the calculation of the failure probability,mathematical model and formula are established according to the characteristics of gravity dam,which include three levels,that is element failure,path failure and system failure.A case study is presented to show the practical application of theoretical method and results of these methods.展开更多
The shape control of probability density function(PDF) of the system state is an important topic in stochastic systems. In this paper, we propose a control technique for PDF shape of the state variable in nonlinear st...The shape control of probability density function(PDF) of the system state is an important topic in stochastic systems. In this paper, we propose a control technique for PDF shape of the state variable in nonlinear stochastic systems. Firstly, we derive and prove the form of the controller by investigating the Fokker-PlanckKolmogorov(FPK) equation arising from the stochastic system. Secondly, an approach for getting approximate solution of the FPK equation is provided. A special function including some parameters is taken as the approximate stationary solution of the FPK equation. We use nonlinear least square method to solve the parameters in the function, and capture the approximate solution of the FPK equation. Substituting the approximate solution into the form of the controller, we can acquire the PDF shape controller. Lastly, some example simulations are conducted to verify the algorithm.展开更多
In the evaluation of some simulation systems, only small samples data are gotten due to the limited conditions. In allusion to the evaluation problem of small sample data, an interval estimation approach with the impr...In the evaluation of some simulation systems, only small samples data are gotten due to the limited conditions. In allusion to the evaluation problem of small sample data, an interval estimation approach with the improved grey confidence degree is proposed.On the basis of the definition of grey distance, three kinds of definition of the grey weight for every sample element in grey estimated value are put forward, and then the improved grey confidence degree is designed. In accordance with the new concept, the grey interval estimation for small sample data is deduced. Furthermore,the bootstrap method is applied for more accurate grey confidence interval. Through resampling of the bootstrap, numerous small samples with the corresponding confidence intervals can be obtained. Then the final confidence interval is calculated from the union of these grey confidence intervals. In the end, the simulation system evaluation using the proposed method is conducted. The simulation results show that the reasonable confidence interval is acquired, which demonstrates the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.展开更多
A probability-based analytical model for predicting the seismic residual deformation of bilinear single-degreeof-freedom(SDOF)systems with a kinematic/Takeda hysteretic model is proposed based on a statistical analysi...A probability-based analytical model for predicting the seismic residual deformation of bilinear single-degreeof-freedom(SDOF)systems with a kinematic/Takeda hysteretic model is proposed based on a statistical analysis of the nonlinear time history response,and the proposed model explicitly incorporates the influence of record-to-record variability.In addition,the influence of primary parameters such as the natural vibration period,relative yield force coefficient,stiffness ratio and peak ground acceleration(PGA)on the seismic residual/maximum deformation ratio(dR/dm)are investigated.The results show that significant dispersion of the dR/dm ratio is observed for SDOF systems under different seismic ground motion records,and the dispersion degree is influenced by the model parameters and record-to-record variability.The statistical distribution of the dR/dm results of SDOF systems can be described by a lognormal distribution.Finally,a case study for seismic residual deformation and reparability assessment of the bridge structure designed with a single pier is carried out to illustrate the detailed analytical procedure of the probability-based analytical model proposed in this study.展开更多
The statistical and distribution characteristics of the responses of a floater and its mooring lines are essential in designing floating/mooring systems.In general,the dynamic responses of offshore structures obey a G...The statistical and distribution characteristics of the responses of a floater and its mooring lines are essential in designing floating/mooring systems.In general,the dynamic responses of offshore structures obey a Gaussian distribution,assuming that the structural system,and sea loads are linear or weakly nonlinear.However,mooring systems and wave loads are considerably nonlinear,and the dynamic responses of hull/mooring systems are non-Gaussian.In this study,the dynamic responses of two types of floaters,semi-submersible and spar platforms,and their mooring lines are computed using coupled dynamic analysis in the time domain.Herein,the statistical characteristics and distributions of the hull motion and mooring line tension are discussed and compared.The statistical distributions of the dynamic responses have strong non-Gaussianity and are unreasonably fitted by a Gaussian distribution for the two floating and mooring systems.Then,the effects of water depth,wave parameters,and low-frequency and wave-frequency components on the non-Gaussianity of the hull motion,and mooring line tension are investigated and discussed.A comparison of the statistical distributions of the responses with various probability density functions,including the Gamma,Gaussian,General Extreme Value,Weibull,and Gaussian Mixture Model(GMM)distributions,shows that the GMM distribution is better than the others for characterizing the statistical distributions of the hull motion,and mooring line tension responses.Furthermore,the GMM distribution has the best accuracy of response prediction.展开更多
This paper presents a Fault Mode Probability Factor（FMPF） based Fault-Tolerant Control（FTC） strategy for multiple faults of Dissimilar Redundant Actuation System（DRAS）composed of Hydraulic Actuator（HA） and Ele...This paper presents a Fault Mode Probability Factor（FMPF） based Fault-Tolerant Control（FTC） strategy for multiple faults of Dissimilar Redundant Actuation System（DRAS）composed of Hydraulic Actuator（HA） and Electro-Hydrostatic Actuator（EHA）. The long-term service and severe working conditions can result in multiple gradual faults which can ultimately degrade the system performance, resulting in the system model drift into the fault state characterized with parameter uncertainty. The paper proposes to address this problem by using the historical statistics of the multiple gradual faults and the proposed FMPF to amend the system model with parameter uncertainty. To balance the system model precision and computation time, a Moving Window（MW） method is used to determine the applied historical statistics. The FMPF based FTC strategy is developed for the amended system model where the system estimation and Linear Quadratic Regulator（LQR） are updated at the end of system sampling period. The simulations of DRAS system subjected to multiple faults have been performed and the results indicate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.展开更多
Systemreliability sensitivity analysis becomes difficult due to involving the issues of the correlation between failure modes whether using analytic method or numerical simulation methods.A fast conditional reduction ...Systemreliability sensitivity analysis becomes difficult due to involving the issues of the correlation between failure modes whether using analytic method or numerical simulation methods.A fast conditional reduction method based on conditional probability theory is proposed to solve the sensitivity analysis based on the approximate analytic method.The relevant concepts are introduced to characterize the correlation between failure modes by the reliability index and correlation coefficient,and conditional normal fractile the for the multi-dimensional conditional failure analysis is proposed based on the two-dimensional normal distribution function.Thus the calculation of system failure probability can be represented as a summation of conditional probability terms,which is convenient to be computed by iterative solving sequentially.Further the system sensitivity solution is transformed into the derivation process of the failure probability correlation coefficient of each failure mode.Numerical examples results show that it is feasible to apply the idea of failure mode relevancy to failure probability sensitivity analysis,and it can avoid multi-dimension integral calculation and reduce complexity and difficulty.Compared with the product of conditional marginalmethod,a wider value range of correlation coefficient for reliability analysis is confirmed and an acceptable accuracy can be obtained with less computational cost.展开更多
This paper presents a linearized approach for the controller design of the shape of output probability density functions for general stochastic systems. A square root approximation to an output probability density fun...This paper presents a linearized approach for the controller design of the shape of output probability density functions for general stochastic systems. A square root approximation to an output probability density function is realized by a set of B-spline functions. This generally produces a nonlinear state space model for the weights of the B-spline approximation. A linearized model is therefore obtained and embedded into a performance function that measures the tracking error of the output probability density function with respect to a given distribution. By using this performance function as a Lyapunov function for the closed loop system, a feedback control input has been obtained which guarantees closed loop stability and realizes perfect tracking. The algorithm described in this paper has been tested on a simulated example and desired results have been achieved.展开更多
This paper investigates the system outage performance of a simultaneous wireless information and power transfer(SWIPT)based two-way decodeand-forward(DF)relay network,where potential hardware impairments(HIs)in all tr...This paper investigates the system outage performance of a simultaneous wireless information and power transfer(SWIPT)based two-way decodeand-forward(DF)relay network,where potential hardware impairments(HIs)in all transceivers are considered.After harvesting energy and decoding messages simultaneously via a power splitting scheme,the energy-limited relay node forwards the decoded information to both terminals.Each terminal combines the signals from the direct and relaying links via selection combining.We derive the system outage probability under independent but non-identically distributed Nakagami-m fading channels.It reveals an overall system ceiling(OSC)effect,i.e.,the system falls in outage if the target rate exceeds an OSC threshold that is determined by the levels of HIs.Furthermore,we derive the diversity gain of the considered network.The result reveals that when the transmission rate is below the OSC threshold,the achieved diversity gain equals the sum of the shape parameter of the direct link and the smaller shape parameter of the terminalto-relay links;otherwise,the diversity gain is zero.This is different from the amplify-and-forward(AF)strategy,under which the relaying links have no contribution to the diversity gain.Simulation results validate the analytical results and reveal that compared with the AF strategy,the SWIPT based two-way relaying links under the DF strategy are more robust to HIs and achieve a lower system outage probability.展开更多
This study presents a danger estimation system to prevent accidents among infants. A video camera positioned above the infant＇s crib captures video. The proposed system can monitor the behavior of infants aged zero t...This study presents a danger estimation system to prevent accidents among infants. A video camera positioned above the infant＇s crib captures video. The proposed system can monitor the behavior of infants aged zero to six months. If there is a change in behavior or any other unusual occurrence, the system alerts the person responsible to attend to the baby immediately. The proposed system operates in three phases, which are foreground color model （FC model） construction, infant detection, and degree of danger analysis. During FC model construction, the foreground color histogram is created iteratively; the background image does not have to be constructed first. A motion-history image （MHI） is also obtained based on the motion of the infant. The color and motion information supplied by the FC model and the MHI are combined to detect the infant, who is regarded as the foreground object in the input frame. Moreover, six features of infant behavior are extracted from the detected infant to measure the degree of danger faced by the infant, and the result is used to warn the baby-sitter if needed. Experimental results show that the proposed method is robust and efficient.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation Joint Fund,No.U22A20309(to PY)the Natural Science Foundation of LiaoningProvince,No.2023-MS-07(to HuL)the Unveiling Key Scientific and Technological Projects of Liaoning Province,No.2021JH1/10400051(to HuL).
文摘Some patients with systemic lupus erythematosus experience neuropsychiatric symptoms.Although magnetic resonance imaging can detect abnormal signals in the white matter of the brain,conventional methods often struggle to accurately capture microstructural changes.Various diffusion models have been used to study white matter in systemic lupus erythematosus;however,comparative analyses of their sensitivity and specificity for detecting microstructural changes remain insufficient.To address this,our team designed a diagnostic trial that used multimodal diffusion imaging techniques to observe white matter microstructural changes in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus who had neuropsychiatric symptoms,with an aim to identify key diagnostic biomarkers for these patients.Patients with active lupus who received treatment at the Department of Rheumatology and Immunology,The First Affiliated Hospital of China Medical University,from September 2023 to March 2024 were recruited.According to the standards of the American College of Rheumatology,patients with systemic lupus erythematosus who had neuropsychiatric symptoms were assigned to the systemic lupus erythematosus group,whereas those without neuropsychiatric symptoms were assigned to the non-systemic lupus erythematosus group.Additionally,healthy volunteers matched by region,sex,and age were recruited as controls.All three groups underwent the same diffusion magnetic resonance imaging examination protocol to compare differences in diffusion parameters.Advanced diffusion imaging models were able to sensitively detect microstructural changes in the white matter fibers of patients with systemic lupus erythematosus who had neuropsychiatric symptoms,with specific diffusion parameters showing significant abnormalities in key brain regions.In the left superior longitudinal fasciculus subregion and the right thalamic radiations of patients with systemic lupus erythematosus who had neuropsychiatric symptoms,we also identified abnormal diffusion characteristics that were clearly correlated with disease activity,suggesting that microstructural changes in these areas may reflect the dynamic process of neuroinflammatory damage.The present study addresses critical challenges in the diagnosis of systemic lupus erythematosus by identifying specific white matter imaging biomarkers and elucidating the association between microstructural damage and clinical manifestations.The main contributions of our study include:1)establishing axial regression probability parameters from mean apparent propagator magnetic resonance imaging as sensitive biomarkers for systemic lupus erythematosus,particularly in the third subregion of the left superior longitudinal fasciculus;2)demonstrating that multimodal diffusion imaging may be superior to conventional diffusion tensor imaging for detecting white matter microstructural abnormalities in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus;and 3)integrating tract-based spatial statistics with clinically relevant analyses to link imaging findings to pathological mechanisms.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(62271247)the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province(BK20240181)+4 种基金the Dreams Foundation of Jianghuai Advance Technology Center(2023-ZM01D001)the National Aerospace Science Foundation of China(20220055052001)the Qing Lan Project of Jiangsu Provincethe Fund of Prospective Layout of Scientific Research for Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronauticsthe Key Laboratory of Radar Imaging and Microwave Photonics(Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics),Ministry of Education。
文摘In this paper,the joint design of transmit and receive beamformers for transmit subaperturing multiple-input-multiple-output(TS-MIMO)radar is investigated,aiming to enhance its low probability of intercept(LPI)capability.The main objective is to simultaneously minimize the transmission power,suppress the transmit sidelobe levels,and minimize the probability of intercept,thus bolstering the LPI performance of the radar system while maintaining the desired target detection performance.An alternative optimization method is proposed to jointly optimize the transmit and receive beamformers,yielding an unified LPI optimization framework.Particularly,the proposed iterative algorithm based on the Lagrange duality theory for transmit beamforming is more efficient than the conventional convex optimization method.Numerical experiments highlight the effectiveness of the proposed approach in sidelobe suppression and computational efficiency.
基金supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.12175100 and 11975132)the Construct Program of the Key Discipline in Hunan Province+5 种基金the Research Foundation of Education Bureau of Hunan Province,China(Nos.21B0402,18A237,22A0305)the Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province,China(No.2018JJ2321)the Innovation Group of Nuclear and Particle Physics in USCthe Shandong Province Natural Science Foundation,China(No.ZR2022JQ04)the Opening Project of Cooperative Innovation Center for Nuclear Fuel Cycle Technology and Equipment,University of South China(No.2019KFZ10)the Hunan Provincial Innovation Foundation for Postgraduate(No.CX20251453)。
文摘In this study,the effects of laser fields that can be achieved in the near future on cluster penetration probability and half-life are quantitatively investigated.The calculation results show that extreme laser fields can slightly change the cluster-decay half-life by affecting the penetration probability within a narrow range.Subsequently,we discuss the correlation between the change rate of the penetration probability and the tunneling path.The results indicate that for different parent nuclei emitting the same cluster,nuclei with longer tunneling paths are more easily affected by the laser fields.The shell effect on this correlation is also observed.In addition,the impact of laser fields on the penetration probability in any direction is investigated.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42471034,42330604)the Qing Lan Projectsupport from the National Key Scientific and Technological Infrastructure project“Earth System Numerical Simulation Facility”(EarthLab).
文摘The western Los Angeles(LA)wildfires of early January 2025 caused catastrophic social and environmental impacts,drawing widespread attention.This study investigates the characteristics of these wildfires and quantifies the influence of heat and drought on their likelihood using a copula-based Bayesian probability framework.The wildfires were characterized by burned area(BA)and intensity(fire radiative power,FRP).The criteria establishing the presence of“hot drought”conditions were identified using the 5-day Standardized Temperature Index(STI)and 75-day Standardized Precipitation Index(SPI),respectively.The wildfire outbreak began on 7 January 2025 and burned for more than six days,with the total burned area exceeding 245 km^(2) and the cumulative FRP exceeding 41060 MW.Based on satellite-derived active fire observations from 2001 to 2025,we estimate that such large and intense wildfires during LA’s rainy season represent a once-in-a-67-year event.The wildfires were largely driven by the combination of hot and dry conditions,which dried out soils and vegetation that had proliferated due to above-average precipitation in previous winter seasons,thereby providing abundant fuel.Our seasonal analysis reveals that extreme drought increased the probability of wildfires matching the 2025 intensity and BA by 54%and 75%,respectively.Hot drought further amplified these probabilities by 149%(intensity)and 210%(BA).These findings suggest an elevated risk of large wildfires under hot drought conditions,contributing to their expansion into the non-traditional fire season.
文摘In an actual control system, it is often difficult to find out where the faults are if only based on the outside fault phenomena, acquired frequently from a fault system. So the fault diagnosis by outside fault phenomena is considered. Based on the theory of fuzzy recognition and fault diagnosis, this method only depends on experience and statistical data to set up fuzzy query relationship between the outside phenomena (fault characters) and the fault sources (fault patterns). From this relationship the most probable fault sources can be obtained, to attain the goal of quick diagnosis. Based on the above approach, the standard fuzzy relationship matrix is stored in the computer as a system database. And experiment data are given to show the fault diagnosis results. The important parameters can be on line sampled and analyzed, and when faults occur, faults can be found, the alarm is given and the controller output is regulated.
基金The National Science and Technology M ajor Project(No.2012ZX03004005-003)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.61171081,61201175)the Research Fund of National M obile Communications Research Laboratory of Southeast University(No.2014A03)
文摘A flame length optimization scheme is proposed for multi-antenna downlink systems to guarantee diverse delay- bound violation probability constraints. Due to the difficulties of extracting the quality of service （QoS） metrics from the conventional physical-layer channel models, the link-layer models named effective bandwidth and effective capacity are applied to statistically characterize the source traffic patterns and the queuing service dynamics. With these link-layer models, the source traffic process and the channel service process are mapped to certain QoS parameters. The packet delay-bound violation probability constraints are converted into minimum data rate constraints and the optimization problem is thus formulated into simultaneous inequalities. With the assumption of ergodic block-fading channels, the optimal frame lengths of single-user and multiuser systems are calculated respectively by numerical iterative methods. Theoretical analyses and simulation results show that the given delay-bound violation probability constraints are well satisfied with the optimal frame length.
基金Projects(51409167,51139001,51179066)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProjects(201401022,201501036)supported by the Ministry of Water Resources Public Welfare Industry Research Special Fund,ChinaProjects(GG201532,GG201546)supported by the Scientific and Technological Research for Water Conservancy,Henan Province,China
文摘The structural system failure probability(SFP) is a valuable tool for evaluating the global safety level of concrete gravity dams.Traditional methods for estimating the failure probabilities are based on defined mathematical descriptions,namely,limit state functions of failure modes.Several problems are to be solved in the use of traditional methods for gravity dams.One is how to define the limit state function really reflecting the mechanical mechanism of the failure mode;another is how to understand the relationship among failure modes and enable the probability of the whole structure to be determined.Performing SFP analysis for a gravity dam system is a challenging task.This work proposes a novel nonlinear finite-element-based SFP analysis method for gravity dams.Firstly,reasonable nonlinear constitutive modes for dam concrete,concrete/rock interface and rock foundation are respectively introduced according to corresponding mechanical mechanisms.Meanwhile the response surface(RS) method is used to model limit state functions of main failure modes through the Monte Carlo(MC) simulation results of the dam-interface-foundation interaction finite element(FE) analysis.Secondly,a numerical SFP method is studied to compute the probabilities of several failure modes efficiently by simple matrix integration operations.Then,the nonlinear FE-based SFP analysis methodology for gravity dams considering correlated failure modes with the additional sensitivity analysis is proposed.Finally,a comprehensive computational platform for interfacing the proposed method with the open source FE code Code Aster is developed via a freely available MATLAB software tool(FERUM).This methodology is demonstrated by a case study of an existing gravity dam analysis,in which the dominant failure modes are identified,and the corresponding performance functions are established.Then,the dam failure probability of the structural system is obtained by the proposed method considering the correlation relationship of main failure modes on the basis of the mechanical mechanism analysis with the MC-FE simulations.
基金This work was financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.51978589,51778544,and 51525804).
文摘The response of the train–bridge system has an obvious random behavior.A high traffic density and a long maintenance period of a track will result in a substantial increase in the number of trains running on a bridge,and there is small likelihood that the maximum responses of the train and bridge happen in the total maintenance period of the track.Firstly,the coupling model of train–bridge systems is reviewed.Then,an ensemble method is presented,which can estimate the small probabilities of a dynamic system with stochastic excitations.The main idea of the ensemble method is to use the NARX(nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous input)model to replace the physical model and apply subset simulation with splitting to obtain the extreme distribution.Finally,the efficiency of the suggested method is compared with the direct Monte Carlo simulation method,and the probability exceedance of train responses under the vertical track irregularity is discussed.The results show that when the small probability of train responses under vertical track irregularity is estimated,the ensemble method can reduce both the calculation time of a single sample and the required number of samples.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Fundation of China(61273127)the Specialized Research Fund of the Doctoral Program in Higher Education(20106118110009+2 种基金20116118110008)the Scientific Research Plan Projects of Shaanxi Education Department(12JK0524)the Young Teachers Scientific Research Fund of Xi’an University of Posts and Telecommunications(1100434)
文摘A novel strategy of probability density function （PDF） shape control is proposed in stochastic systems. The control er is designed whose parameters are optimal y obtained through the improved particle swarm optimization algorithm. The parameters of the control er are viewed as the space position of a particle in particle swarm optimization algorithm and updated continual y until the control er makes the PDF of the state variable as close as possible to the expected PDF. The proposed PDF shape control technique is compared with the equivalent linearization technique through simulation experiments. The results show the superiority and the effectiveness of the proposed method. The control er is excellent in making the state PDF fol ow the expected PDF and has the very smal error between the state PDF and the expected PDF, solving the control problem of the PDF shape in stochastic systems effectively.
基金Projects(51021004,51379141)supported by the Foundation for Innovative Research Groups of the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘Methodology for the reliability analysis of hydraulic gravity dam is the key technology in current hydropower construction.Reliability analysis for the dynamical dam safety should be divided into two phases:failure mode identification and the calculation of the failure probability.Both of them are studied based on the mathematical statistics and structure reliability theory considering two kinds of uncertainty characters(earthquake variability and material randomness).Firstly,failure mode identification method is established based on the dynamical limit state system and verified through example of Koyna Dam so that the statistical law of progressive failure process in dam body are revealed; Secondly,for the calculation of the failure probability,mathematical model and formula are established according to the characteristics of gravity dam,which include three levels,that is element failure,path failure and system failure.A case study is presented to show the practical application of theoretical method and results of these methods.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.61273127)the Specialized Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education of China(No.20116118110008)the Scientific Research Plan Projects of Shaanxi Education Department(No.12JK0524)
文摘The shape control of probability density function(PDF) of the system state is an important topic in stochastic systems. In this paper, we propose a control technique for PDF shape of the state variable in nonlinear stochastic systems. Firstly, we derive and prove the form of the controller by investigating the Fokker-PlanckKolmogorov(FPK) equation arising from the stochastic system. Secondly, an approach for getting approximate solution of the FPK equation is provided. A special function including some parameters is taken as the approximate stationary solution of the FPK equation. We use nonlinear least square method to solve the parameters in the function, and capture the approximate solution of the FPK equation. Substituting the approximate solution into the form of the controller, we can acquire the PDF shape controller. Lastly, some example simulations are conducted to verify the algorithm.
文摘In the evaluation of some simulation systems, only small samples data are gotten due to the limited conditions. In allusion to the evaluation problem of small sample data, an interval estimation approach with the improved grey confidence degree is proposed.On the basis of the definition of grey distance, three kinds of definition of the grey weight for every sample element in grey estimated value are put forward, and then the improved grey confidence degree is designed. In accordance with the new concept, the grey interval estimation for small sample data is deduced. Furthermore,the bootstrap method is applied for more accurate grey confidence interval. Through resampling of the bootstrap, numerous small samples with the corresponding confidence intervals can be obtained. Then the final confidence interval is calculated from the union of these grey confidence intervals. In the end, the simulation system evaluation using the proposed method is conducted. The simulation results show that the reasonable confidence interval is acquired, which demonstrates the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.
基金Natural Science Foundations of China under Grant Nos.51508154,51978125 and 51678104the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province under Grant No.BK20211206+1 种基金the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities under Grant No.B210202033,China Postdoctoral Science Foundation under Grant No.2020M670787the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions。
文摘A probability-based analytical model for predicting the seismic residual deformation of bilinear single-degreeof-freedom(SDOF)systems with a kinematic/Takeda hysteretic model is proposed based on a statistical analysis of the nonlinear time history response,and the proposed model explicitly incorporates the influence of record-to-record variability.In addition,the influence of primary parameters such as the natural vibration period,relative yield force coefficient,stiffness ratio and peak ground acceleration(PGA)on the seismic residual/maximum deformation ratio(dR/dm)are investigated.The results show that significant dispersion of the dR/dm ratio is observed for SDOF systems under different seismic ground motion records,and the dispersion degree is influenced by the model parameters and record-to-record variability.The statistical distribution of the dR/dm results of SDOF systems can be described by a lognormal distribution.Finally,a case study for seismic residual deformation and reparability assessment of the bridge structure designed with a single pier is carried out to illustrate the detailed analytical procedure of the probability-based analytical model proposed in this study.
基金the support by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.51709247 and 51490675)the National Key R&D Program of China(No.2016YFE0200100)
文摘The statistical and distribution characteristics of the responses of a floater and its mooring lines are essential in designing floating/mooring systems.In general,the dynamic responses of offshore structures obey a Gaussian distribution,assuming that the structural system,and sea loads are linear or weakly nonlinear.However,mooring systems and wave loads are considerably nonlinear,and the dynamic responses of hull/mooring systems are non-Gaussian.In this study,the dynamic responses of two types of floaters,semi-submersible and spar platforms,and their mooring lines are computed using coupled dynamic analysis in the time domain.Herein,the statistical characteristics and distributions of the hull motion and mooring line tension are discussed and compared.The statistical distributions of the dynamic responses have strong non-Gaussianity and are unreasonably fitted by a Gaussian distribution for the two floating and mooring systems.Then,the effects of water depth,wave parameters,and low-frequency and wave-frequency components on the non-Gaussianity of the hull motion,and mooring line tension are investigated and discussed.A comparison of the statistical distributions of the responses with various probability density functions,including the Gamma,Gaussian,General Extreme Value,Weibull,and Gaussian Mixture Model(GMM)distributions,shows that the GMM distribution is better than the others for characterizing the statistical distributions of the hull motion,and mooring line tension responses.Furthermore,the GMM distribution has the best accuracy of response prediction.
基金co-supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.51620105010,51675019 and 51575019)the National Basic Research Program of China(No.2014CB046402)+1 种基金the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China(YWF-17-BJ-Y-105)the "111" Project of China
文摘This paper presents a Fault Mode Probability Factor（FMPF） based Fault-Tolerant Control（FTC） strategy for multiple faults of Dissimilar Redundant Actuation System（DRAS）composed of Hydraulic Actuator（HA） and Electro-Hydrostatic Actuator（EHA）. The long-term service and severe working conditions can result in multiple gradual faults which can ultimately degrade the system performance, resulting in the system model drift into the fault state characterized with parameter uncertainty. The paper proposes to address this problem by using the historical statistics of the multiple gradual faults and the proposed FMPF to amend the system model with parameter uncertainty. To balance the system model precision and computation time, a Moving Window（MW） method is used to determine the applied historical statistics. The FMPF based FTC strategy is developed for the amended system model where the system estimation and Linear Quadratic Regulator（LQR） are updated at the end of system sampling period. The simulations of DRAS system subjected to multiple faults have been performed and the results indicate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.
基金This research is supported by National Key Research and Development Project(Grant Number 2019YFD0901002)Also Natural Science Foundation of Liaoning Province(Grant Number 20170540105)Liaoning Province Education Foundation(Grant Number JL201913)are gratefully acknowledged.
文摘Systemreliability sensitivity analysis becomes difficult due to involving the issues of the correlation between failure modes whether using analytic method or numerical simulation methods.A fast conditional reduction method based on conditional probability theory is proposed to solve the sensitivity analysis based on the approximate analytic method.The relevant concepts are introduced to characterize the correlation between failure modes by the reliability index and correlation coefficient,and conditional normal fractile the for the multi-dimensional conditional failure analysis is proposed based on the two-dimensional normal distribution function.Thus the calculation of system failure probability can be represented as a summation of conditional probability terms,which is convenient to be computed by iterative solving sequentially.Further the system sensitivity solution is transformed into the derivation process of the failure probability correlation coefficient of each failure mode.Numerical examples results show that it is feasible to apply the idea of failure mode relevancy to failure probability sensitivity analysis,and it can avoid multi-dimension integral calculation and reduce complexity and difficulty.Compared with the product of conditional marginalmethod,a wider value range of correlation coefficient for reliability analysis is confirmed and an acceptable accuracy can be obtained with less computational cost.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(7127217571472055)+1 种基金the National Science Foundation for Post-doctoral Scientists of China(201104424)the Heilongjiang Philosophy and Social Science Research Project(14B105)
文摘This paper presents a linearized approach for the controller design of the shape of output probability density functions for general stochastic systems. A square root approximation to an output probability density function is realized by a set of B-spline functions. This generally produces a nonlinear state space model for the weights of the B-spline approximation. A linearized model is therefore obtained and embedded into a performance function that measures the tracking error of the output probability density function with respect to a given distribution. By using this performance function as a Lyapunov function for the closed loop system, a feedback control input has been obtained which guarantees closed loop stability and realizes perfect tracking. The algorithm described in this paper has been tested on a simulated example and desired results have been achieved.
基金supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant 62201451in part by the Young Talent fund of University Association for Science and Technology in Shaanxi under Grant 20210121+1 种基金in part by the Shaanxi provincial special fund for Technological innovation guidance(2022CGBX-29)in part by BUPT Excellent Ph.D.Students Foundation under Grant CX2022106.
文摘This paper investigates the system outage performance of a simultaneous wireless information and power transfer(SWIPT)based two-way decodeand-forward(DF)relay network,where potential hardware impairments(HIs)in all transceivers are considered.After harvesting energy and decoding messages simultaneously via a power splitting scheme,the energy-limited relay node forwards the decoded information to both terminals.Each terminal combines the signals from the direct and relaying links via selection combining.We derive the system outage probability under independent but non-identically distributed Nakagami-m fading channels.It reveals an overall system ceiling(OSC)effect,i.e.,the system falls in outage if the target rate exceeds an OSC threshold that is determined by the levels of HIs.Furthermore,we derive the diversity gain of the considered network.The result reveals that when the transmission rate is below the OSC threshold,the achieved diversity gain equals the sum of the shape parameter of the direct link and the smaller shape parameter of the terminalto-relay links;otherwise,the diversity gain is zero.This is different from the amplify-and-forward(AF)strategy,under which the relaying links have no contribution to the diversity gain.Simulation results validate the analytical results and reveal that compared with the AF strategy,the SWIPT based two-way relaying links under the DF strategy are more robust to HIs and achieve a lower system outage probability.
基金supported by the National Science Council,Taiwan under Contract No.NSC98-2221-E-003-014-MY2 and NSC99-2631-S-003-002
文摘This study presents a danger estimation system to prevent accidents among infants. A video camera positioned above the infant＇s crib captures video. The proposed system can monitor the behavior of infants aged zero to six months. If there is a change in behavior or any other unusual occurrence, the system alerts the person responsible to attend to the baby immediately. The proposed system operates in three phases, which are foreground color model （FC model） construction, infant detection, and degree of danger analysis. During FC model construction, the foreground color histogram is created iteratively; the background image does not have to be constructed first. A motion-history image （MHI） is also obtained based on the motion of the infant. The color and motion information supplied by the FC model and the MHI are combined to detect the infant, who is regarded as the foreground object in the input frame. Moreover, six features of infant behavior are extracted from the detected infant to measure the degree of danger faced by the infant, and the result is used to warn the baby-sitter if needed. Experimental results show that the proposed method is robust and efficient.
