The critical role of patient-reported outcome measures(PROMs)in enhancing clinical decision-making and promoting patient-centered care has gained a profound significance in scientific research.PROMs encapsulate a pati...The critical role of patient-reported outcome measures(PROMs)in enhancing clinical decision-making and promoting patient-centered care has gained a profound significance in scientific research.PROMs encapsulate a patient's health status directly from their perspective,encompassing various domains such as symptom severity,functional status,and overall quality of life.By integrating PROMs into routine clinical practice and research,healthcare providers can achieve a more nuanced understanding of patient experiences and tailor treatments accordingly.The deployment of PROMs supports dynamic patient-provider interactions,fostering better patient engagement and adherence to tre-atment plans.Moreover,PROMs are pivotal in clinical settings for monitoring disease progression and treatment efficacy,particularly in chronic and mental health conditions.However,challenges in implementing PROMs include data collection and management,integration into existing health systems,and acceptance by patients and providers.Overcoming these barriers necessitates technological advancements,policy development,and continuous education to enhance the acceptability and effectiveness of PROMs.The paper concludes with recommendations for future research and policy-making aimed at optimizing the use and impact of PROMs across healthcare settings.展开更多
Model predictive control(MPC)has been deemed as an attractive control method in motor drives by virtue of its simple structure,convenient multi-objective optimization,and satisfactory dynamic performance.However,the s...Model predictive control(MPC)has been deemed as an attractive control method in motor drives by virtue of its simple structure,convenient multi-objective optimization,and satisfactory dynamic performance.However,the strong reliance on mathematical models seriously restrains its practical application.Therefore,improving the robustness of MPC has attained significant attentions in the last two decades,followed by which,model-free predictive control(MFPC)comes into existence.This article aims to reveal the current state of MFPC strategies for motor drives and give the categorization from the perspective of implementation.Based on this review,the principles of the reported MFPC strategies are introduced in detail,as well as the challenges encountered in technology realization.In addition,some of typical and important concepts are experimentally validated via case studies to evaluate the performance and highlight their features.Finally,the future trends of MFPC are discussed based on the current state and reported developments.展开更多
To solve problems of poor security guarantee and insufficient training efficiency in the conventional reinforcement learning methods for decision-making,this study proposes a hybrid framework to combine deep reinforce...To solve problems of poor security guarantee and insufficient training efficiency in the conventional reinforcement learning methods for decision-making,this study proposes a hybrid framework to combine deep reinforcement learning with rule-based decision-making methods.A risk assessment model for lane-change maneuvers considering uncertain predictions of surrounding vehicles is established as a safety filter to improve learning efficiency while correcting dangerous actions for safety enhancement.On this basis,a Risk-fused DDQN is constructed utilizing the model-based risk assessment and supervision mechanism.The proposed reinforcement learning algorithm sets up a separate experience buffer for dangerous trials and punishes such actions,which is shown to improve the sampling efficiency and training outcomes.Compared with conventional DDQN methods,the proposed algorithm improves the convergence value of cumulated reward by 7.6%and 2.2%in the two constructed scenarios in the simulation study and reduces the number of training episodes by 52.2%and 66.8%respectively.The success rate of lane change is improved by 57.3%while the time headway is increased at least by 16.5%in real vehicle tests,which confirms the higher training efficiency,scenario adaptability,and security of the proposed Risk-fused DDQN.展开更多
Accurate channel state information(CSI)is crucial for 6G wireless communication systems to accommodate the growing demands of mobile broadband services.In massive multiple-input multiple-output(MIMO)systems,traditiona...Accurate channel state information(CSI)is crucial for 6G wireless communication systems to accommodate the growing demands of mobile broadband services.In massive multiple-input multiple-output(MIMO)systems,traditional CSI feedback approaches face challenges such as performance degradation due to feedback delay and channel aging caused by user mobility.To address these issues,we propose a novel spatio-temporal predictive network(STPNet)that jointly integrates CSI feedback and prediction modules.STPNet employs stacked Inception modules to learn the spatial correlation and temporal evolution of CSI,which captures both the local and the global spatiotemporal features.In addition,the signal-to-noise ratio(SNR)adaptive module is designed to adapt flexibly to diverse feedback channel conditions.Simulation results demonstrate that STPNet outperforms existing channel prediction methods under various channel conditions.展开更多
Due to the numerous variables to take into account as well as the inherent ambiguity and uncertainty,evaluating educational institutions can be difficult.The concept of a possibility Pythagorean fuzzy hypersoft set(pP...Due to the numerous variables to take into account as well as the inherent ambiguity and uncertainty,evaluating educational institutions can be difficult.The concept of a possibility Pythagorean fuzzy hypersoft set(pPyFHSS)is more flexible in this regard than other theoretical fuzzy set-like models,even though some attempts have been made in the literature to address such uncertainties.This study investigates the elementary notions of pPyFHSS including its set-theoretic operations union,intersection,complement,OR-and AND-operations.Some results related to these operations are also modified for pPyFHSS.Additionally,the similarity measures between pPyFHSSs are formulated with the assistance of numerical examples and results.Lastly,an intelligent decision-assisted mechanism is developed with the proposal of a robust algorithm based on similarity measures for solving multi-attribute decision-making(MADM)problems.A case study that helps the decision-makers assess the best educational institution is discussed to validate the suggested system.The algorithmic results are compared with the most pertinent model to evaluate the adaptability of pPyFHSS,as it generalizes the classical possibility fuzzy set-like theoretical models.Similarly,while considering significant evaluating factors,the flexibility of pPyFHSS is observed through structural comparison.展开更多
BACKGROUND The discrepancy between endoscopic biopsy pathology and the overall pathology of gastric low-grade intraepithelial neoplasia(LGIN)presents challenges in developing diagnostic and treatment protocols.AIM To ...BACKGROUND The discrepancy between endoscopic biopsy pathology and the overall pathology of gastric low-grade intraepithelial neoplasia(LGIN)presents challenges in developing diagnostic and treatment protocols.AIM To develop a risk prediction model for the pathological upgrading of gastric LGIN to aid clinical diagnosis and treatment.METHODS We retrospectively analyzed data from patients newly diagnosed with gastric LGIN who underwent complete endoscopic resection within 6 months at the First Medical Center of Chinese People’s Liberation Army General Hospital between January 2008 and December 2023.A risk prediction model for the pathological progression of gastric LGIN was constructed and evaluated for accuracy and clinical applicability.RESULTS A total of 171 patients were included in this study:93 patients with high-grade intraepithelial neoplasia or early gastric cancer and 78 with LGIN.The logistic stepwise regression model demonstrated a sensitivity and specificity of 0.868 and 0.800,respectively,while the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator(LASSO)regression model showed sensitivity and specificity values of 0.842 and 0.840,respectively.The area under the curve(AUC)for the logistic model was 0.896,slightly lower than the AUC of 0.904 for the LASSO model.Internal validation with 30%of the data yielded AUC scores of 0.908 for the logistic model and 0.905 for the LASSO model.The LASSO model provided greater utility in clinical decision-making.CONCLUSION A risk prediction model for the pathological upgrading of gastric LGIN based on white-light and magnifying endoscopic features can accurately and effectively guide clinical diagnosis and treatment.展开更多
Dear Editor,In this letter,a constrained networked predictive control strategy is proposed for the optimal control problem of complex nonlinear highorder fully actuated(HOFA)systems with noises.The method can effectiv...Dear Editor,In this letter,a constrained networked predictive control strategy is proposed for the optimal control problem of complex nonlinear highorder fully actuated(HOFA)systems with noises.The method can effectively deal with nonlinearities,constraints,and noises in the system,optimize the performance metric,and present an upper bound on the stable output of the system.展开更多
BACKGROUND An increasing number of studies to date have found preoperative magnetic resonance imaging(MRI)features valuable in predicting the prognosis of rectal cancer(RC).However,research is still lacking on the cor...BACKGROUND An increasing number of studies to date have found preoperative magnetic resonance imaging(MRI)features valuable in predicting the prognosis of rectal cancer(RC).However,research is still lacking on the correlation between preoperative MRI features and the risk of recurrence after radical resection of RC,urgently necessitating further in-depth exploration.AIM To investigate the correlation between preoperative MRI parameters and the risk of recurrence after radical resection of RC to provide an effective tool for predicting postoperative recurrence.METHODS The data of 90 patients who were diagnosed with RC by surgical pathology and underwent radical surgical resection at the Second Affiliated Hospital of Bengbu Medical University between May 2020 and December 2023 were collected through retrospective analysis.General demographic data,MRI data,and tumor markers levels were collected.According to the reviewed data of patients six months after surgery,the clinicians comprehensively assessed the recurrence risk and divided the patients into high recurrence risk(37 cases)and low recurrence risk(53 cases)groups.Independent sample t-test andχ2 test were used to analyze differences between the two groups.A logistic regression model was used to explore the risk factors of the high recurrence risk group,and a clinical prediction model was constructed.The clinical prediction model is presented in the form of a nomogram.The receiver operating characteristic curve,Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test,calibration curve,and decision curve analysis were used to evaluate the efficacy of the clinical prediction model.RESULTS The detection of positive extramural vascular invasion through preoperative MRI[odds ratio(OR)=4.29,P=0.045],along with elevated carcinoembryonic antigen(OR=1.08,P=0.041),carbohydrate antigen 125(OR=1.19,P=0.034),and carbohydrate antigen 199(OR=1.27,P<0.001)levels,are independent risk factors for increased postoperative recurrence risk in patients with RC.Furthermore,there was a correlation between magnetic resonance based T staging,magnetic resonance based N staging,and circumferential resection margin results determined by MRI and the postoperative recurrence risk.Additionally,when extramural vascular invasion was integrated with tumor markers,the resulting clinical prediction model more effectively identified patients at high risk for postoperative recurrence,thereby providing robust support for clinical decision-making.CONCLUSION The results of this study indicate that preoperative MRI detection is of great importance for predicting the risk of postoperative recurrence in patients with RC.Monitoring these markers helps clinicians identify patients at high risk,allowing for more aggressive treatment and monitoring strategies to improve patient outcomes.展开更多
Accurate medical diagnosis,which involves identifying diseases based on patient symptoms,is often hindered by uncertainties in data interpretation and retrieval.Advanced fuzzy set theories have emerged as effective to...Accurate medical diagnosis,which involves identifying diseases based on patient symptoms,is often hindered by uncertainties in data interpretation and retrieval.Advanced fuzzy set theories have emerged as effective tools to address these challenges.In this paper,new mathematical approaches for handling uncertainty in medical diagnosis are introduced using q-rung orthopair fuzzy sets(q-ROFS)and interval-valued q-rung orthopair fuzzy sets(IVq-ROFS).Three aggregation operators are proposed in our methodologies:the q-ROF weighted averaging(q-ROFWA),the q-ROF weighted geometric(q-ROFWG),and the q-ROF weighted neutrality averaging(qROFWNA),which enhance decision-making under uncertainty.These operators are paired with ranking methods such as the similarity measure,score function,and inverse score function to improve the accuracy of disease identification.Additionally,the impact of varying q-rung values is explored through a sensitivity analysis,extending the analysis beyond the typical maximum value of 3.The Basic Uncertain Information(BUI)method is employed to simulate expert opinions,and aggregation operators are used to combine these opinions in a group decisionmaking context.Our results provide a comprehensive comparison of methodologies,highlighting their strengths and limitations in diagnosing diseases based on uncertain patient data.展开更多
Objective To develop a non-invasive predictive model for coronary artery stenosis severity based on adaptive multi-modal integration of traditional Chinese and western medicine data.Methods Clinical indicators,echocar...Objective To develop a non-invasive predictive model for coronary artery stenosis severity based on adaptive multi-modal integration of traditional Chinese and western medicine data.Methods Clinical indicators,echocardiographic data,traditional Chinese medicine(TCM)tongue manifestations,and facial features were collected from patients who underwent coro-nary computed tomography angiography(CTA)in the Cardiac Care Unit(CCU)of Shanghai Tenth People's Hospital between May 1,2023 and May 1,2024.An adaptive weighted multi-modal data fusion(AWMDF)model based on deep learning was constructed to predict the severity of coronary artery stenosis.The model was evaluated using metrics including accura-cy,precision,recall,F1 score,and the area under the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve(AUC).Further performance assessment was conducted through comparisons with six ensemble machine learning methods,data ablation,model component ablation,and various decision-level fusion strategies.Results A total of 158 patients were included in the study.The AWMDF model achieved ex-cellent predictive performance(AUC=0.973,accuracy=0.937,precision=0.937,recall=0.929,and F1 score=0.933).Compared with model ablation,data ablation experiments,and various traditional machine learning models,the AWMDF model demonstrated superior per-formance.Moreover,the adaptive weighting strategy outperformed alternative approaches,including simple weighting,averaging,voting,and fixed-weight schemes.Conclusion The AWMDF model demonstrates potential clinical value in the non-invasive prediction of coronary artery disease and could serve as a tool for clinical decision support.展开更多
Fluctuating voltage levels in power grids necessitate automatic voltage regulators(AVRs)to ensure stability.This study examined the modeling and control of AVR in hydroelectric power plants using model predictive cont...Fluctuating voltage levels in power grids necessitate automatic voltage regulators(AVRs)to ensure stability.This study examined the modeling and control of AVR in hydroelectric power plants using model predictive control(MPC),which utilizes an extensive mathe-matical model of the voltage regulation system to optimize the control actions over a defined prediction horizon.This predictive feature enables MPC to minimize voltage deviations while accounting for operational constraints,thereby improving stability and performance under dynamic conditions.Thefindings were compared with those derived from an optimal proportional integral derivative(PID)con-troller designed using the artificial bee colony(ABC)algorithm.Although the ABC-PID method adjusts the PID parameters based on historical data,it may be difficult to adapt to real-time changes in system dynamics under constraints.Comprehensive simulations assessed both frameworks,emphasizing performance metrics such as disturbance rejection,response to load changes,and resilience to uncertainties.The results show that both MPC and ABC-PID methods effectively achieved accurate voltage regulation;however,MPC excelled in controlling overshoot and settling time—recording 0.0%and 0.25 s,respectively.This demonstrates greater robustness compared to conventional control methods that optimize PID parameters based on performance criteria derived from actual system behavior,which exhibited settling times and overshoots exceeding 0.41 s and 5.0%,respectively.The controllers were implemented using MATLAB/Simulink software,indicating a significant advancement for power plant engineers pursuing state-of-the-art automatic voltage regulations.展开更多
BACKGROUND Understanding a patient's clinical status and setting priorities for their care are two aspects of the constantly changing process of clinical decision-making.One analytical technique that can be helpfu...BACKGROUND Understanding a patient's clinical status and setting priorities for their care are two aspects of the constantly changing process of clinical decision-making.One analytical technique that can be helpful in uncertain situations is clinical judgment.Clinicians must deal with contradictory information,lack of time to make decisions,and long-term factors when emergencies occur.AIM To examine the ethical issues healthcare professionals faced during the coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)pandemic and the factors affecting clinical decision-making.METHODS This pilot study,which means it was a preliminary investigation to gather information and test the feasibility of a larger investigation was conducted over 6 months and we invited responses from clinicians worldwide who managed patients with COVID-19.The survey focused on topics related to their professional roles and personal relationships.We examined five core areas influencing critical care decision-making:Patients'personal factors,family-related factors,informed consent,communication and media,and hospital administrative policies on clinical decision-making.The collected data were analyzed using the χ^(2) test for categorical variables.RESULTS A total of 102 clinicians from 23 specialties and 17 countries responded to the survey.Age was a significant factor in treatment planning(n=88)and ventilator access(n=78).Sex had no bearing on how decisions were made.Most doctors reported maintaining patient confidentiality regarding privacy and informed consent.Approximately 50%of clinicians reported a moderate influence of clinical work,with many citing it as one of the most important factors affecting their health and relationships.Clinicians from developing countries had a significantly higher score for considering a patient's financial status when creating a treatment plan than their counterparts from developed countries.Regarding personal experiences,some respondents noted that treatment plans and preferences changed from wave to wave,and that there was a rapid turnover of studies and evidence.Hospital and government policies also played a role in critical decision-making.Rather than assessing the appropriateness of treatment,some doctors observed that hospital policies regarding medications were driven by patient demand.CONCLUSION Factors other than medical considerations frequently affect management choices.The disparity in treatment choices,became more apparent during the pandemic.We highlight the difficulties and contradictions between moral standards and the realities physicians encountered during this medical emergency.False information,large patient populations,and limited resources caused problems for clinicians.These factors impacted decision-making,which,in turn,affected patient care and healthcare staff well-being.展开更多
While Artificial Intelligence (AI) is leading the way in terms of hardware advancements, such as GPUs, memory, and processing power, real-time applications are still catching up. It is inevitable that when one aspect ...While Artificial Intelligence (AI) is leading the way in terms of hardware advancements, such as GPUs, memory, and processing power, real-time applications are still catching up. It is inevitable that when one aspect leads and other trails behind, they coexist in life, as is often the case. The trailing aspect cannot remain far behind because, without application and use, there would be a dead end. Everything, whether an object, software, or tool, must have a practical use for humans. Without this, it will become obsolete. We can see this in many instances, such as blockchain technology, which is superior yet faces challenges in practical implementation, leading to a decline in adoption. This publication aims to bridge the gap between AI advancements and maintenance, specifically focusing on making predictive maintenance a practical application. There are multiple building blocks that make predictive maintenance a practical application. Each block performs a function leading to an output. This output forms an input to the receiving block. There are also foundational parts for all these building blocks to perform a function. Eventually, once the building blocks are connected, they form a loop and start to lead the path to predictive maintenance. Predictive maintenance is indeed practically achievable, but one must comprehend all the building blocks necessary for its implementation. Although detailed explanations will be provided in the upcoming sections, it is important to understand that simply purchasing software and plugging it in might be a far-fetched approach.展开更多
This work proposes the application of an iterative learning model predictive control(ILMPC)approach based on an adaptive fault observer(FOBILMPC)for fault-tolerant control and trajectory tracking in air-breathing hype...This work proposes the application of an iterative learning model predictive control(ILMPC)approach based on an adaptive fault observer(FOBILMPC)for fault-tolerant control and trajectory tracking in air-breathing hypersonic vehicles.In order to increase the control amount,this online control legislation makes use of model predictive control(MPC)that is based on the concept of iterative learning control(ILC).By using offline data to decrease the linearized model’s faults,the strategy may effectively increase the robustness of the control system and guarantee that disturbances can be suppressed.An adaptive fault observer is created based on the suggested ILMPC approach in order to enhance overall fault tolerance by estimating and compensating for actuator disturbance and fault degree.During the derivation process,a linearized model of longitudinal dynamics is established.The suggested ILMPC approach is likely to be used in the design of hypersonic vehicle control systems since numerical simulations have demonstrated that it can decrease tracking error and speed up convergence when compared to the offline controller.展开更多
The predictive model and design of heavy-duty metal rubber shock absorber for the powertrains of heavy-load mining vehicles were investigated.The microstructural characteristics of the wire mesh were elucidated using ...The predictive model and design of heavy-duty metal rubber shock absorber for the powertrains of heavy-load mining vehicles were investigated.The microstructural characteristics of the wire mesh were elucidated using fractal graphs.A numerical model based on virtual fabrication technique was established to propose a design scheme for the wire mesh component.Four sets of wire mesh shock absorbers with various relative densities were prepared and a predictive model based on these relative densities was established through mechanical testing.To further enhance the predictive accuracy,a variable transposition fitting method was proposed to refine the model.Residual analysis was employed to quantitatively validate the results against those obtained from an experimental control group.The results show that the improved model exhibits higher predictive accuracy than the original model,with the determination coefficient(R^(2))of 0.9624.This study provides theoretical support for designing wire mesh shock absorbers with reduced testing requirements and enhanced design efficiency.展开更多
Objectives This study aimed to clarify the relationship between the content of proxy decision-making made by families of patients with malignant brain tumors regarding treatment policies and daily care and the cues le...Objectives This study aimed to clarify the relationship between the content of proxy decision-making made by families of patients with malignant brain tumors regarding treatment policies and daily care and the cues leading to those decisions.Methods Semi-structured personal interviews were used to collect data.Seven family members of patients with malignant brain tumors were selected to participate in the study by purposive sampling method from June to August 2022 in the Patient Family Association of Japan.Responses were content analyzed to explore the relationship between the content of decisions regarding“treatment policies”and“daily care”and the cues influencing those decisions.Semi-structured interviews were analyzed by using thematic analysis.Results The contents of proxy decisions regarding“treatment policies”included implementation,interruption,and termination of initial treatments,free medical treatments,use of respirators,and end-of-life sedation and included six cues:treatment policies suggested by the primary physician,information and knowledge about the disease and treatment obtained by the family from limited resources,perceived life threat from symptom worsening,words and reactions from the patient regarding treatment,patient’s personality and way of life inferred from their treatment preferences,family’s thoughts and values hoping for better treatment for the patient.Decisions for“daily care”included meal content and methods,excretion,mobility,maintaining cleanliness,rehabilitation,continuation or resignation from work,treatment settings(outpatient or inpatient),and ways to spend time outside and included seven cues:words and thoughts from the patient about their way of life,patient’s reactions and life history inferred from their preferred way of living,things the patient can do to maintain daily life and roles,awareness of the increasing inability to do things in daily life,family’s underlying thoughts and values about how to spend the remaining time,approval from family members regarding the care setting,advice from medical professionals on living at home.Conclusions For“treatment policies,”guidelines from medical professionals were a key cue,while for“daily care,”the small signs from the patients in their daily lives served as cues for proxy decision-making.This may be due to the lack of information available to families and the limited time available for discussion with the patient.Families of patients with malignant brain tumors repeatedly use multiple cues to make proxy decision-making under high uncertainty.Therefore,nurses supporting proxy decision-making should assess the family’s situation and provide cues that facilitate informed and confident decisions.展开更多
Group living is widespread across diverse taxa,and the mechanisms underlying collective decision-making in contexts of variable role division are critical for understanding the dynamics of group stability.While studie...Group living is widespread across diverse taxa,and the mechanisms underlying collective decision-making in contexts of variable role division are critical for understanding the dynamics of group stability.While studies on collective behavior in small animals such as fish and insects are well-established,similar research on large wild animals remains challenging due to the limited availability of sufficient and systematic field data.Here,we aimed to explore the collective decision-making pattern and its sexual difference for the dimorphic Tibetan antelopes Pantholops hodgsonii(chiru)in Xizang Autonomous Region,China,by analyzing individual leadership distribution,as well as the joining process,considering factors such as calving stages and joining ranks.The distinct correlations of decision participants’ratio with group size and decision duration underscore the trade-off between accuracy and speed in decision-making.Male antelopes display a more democratic decision-making pattern,while females exhibit more prompt responses after calving at an early stage.This study uncovers a partially shared decision-making strategy among Tibetan antelopes,suggesting flexible self-organization in group decision processes aligned with animal life cycle progression.展开更多
BACKGROUND Mesalamine is the recommended first-line treatment for inducing and maintaining remission in mild-to-moderate ulcerative colitis(UC).However,adherence in real-world settings is frequently suboptimal.Encoura...BACKGROUND Mesalamine is the recommended first-line treatment for inducing and maintaining remission in mild-to-moderate ulcerative colitis(UC).However,adherence in real-world settings is frequently suboptimal.Encouraging collaborative patient-provider relationships may foster better adherence and patient outcomes.AIM To quantify the association between patient participation in treatment decisionmaking and adherence to oral mesalamine in UC.METHODS We conducted a 12-month,prospective,non-interventional cohort study at 113 gastroenterology practices in Germany.Eligible patients were aged≥18 years,had a confirmed UC diagnosis,had no prior mesalamine treatment,and provided informed consent.At the first visit,we collected data on demographics,clinical characteristics,patient preference for mesalamine formulation(tablets or granules),and disease knowledge.Self-reported adherence and disease activity were assessed at all visits.Correlation analyses and logistic regression were used to examine associations between adherence and various factors.RESULTS Of the 605 consecutively screened patients,520 were included in the study.The median age was 41 years(range:18-91),with a male-to-female ratio of 1.1:1.0.Approximately 75%of patients reported good adherence at each study visit.In correlation analyses,patient participation in treatment decision-making was significantly associated with better adherence across all visits(P=0.04).In the regression analysis at 12 months,this association was evident among patients who both preferred and received prolonged-release mesalamine granules(odds ratio=2.73,P=0.001).Patients reporting good adherence also experienced significant improvements in disease activity over 12 months(P<0.001).CONCLUSION Facilitating patient participation in treatment decisions and accommodating medication preferences may improve adherence to mesalamine.This may require additional effort but has the potential to improve long-term management of UC.展开更多
Malaria remains a major public health challenge necessitating accurate predictive models to inform effective intervention strategies in Sierra Leone. This study compares the performance of Holt-Winters’ Exponential S...Malaria remains a major public health challenge necessitating accurate predictive models to inform effective intervention strategies in Sierra Leone. This study compares the performance of Holt-Winters’ Exponential Smoothing, Harmonic, and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models using data from January 2018 to December 2023, incorporating both historical case records from Sierra Leone’s Health Management Information System (HMIS) and meteorological variables including humidity, precipitation, and temperature. The ANN model demonstrated superior performance, achieving a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 4.74% before including climatic variables. This was further reduced to 3.9% with the inclusion of climatic variables, outperforming traditional models like Holt-Winters and Harmonic, which yielded MAPEs of 22.53% and 17.90% respectively. The ANN’s success is attributed to its ability to capture complex, non-linear relationships in the data, particularly when enhanced with relevant climatic variables. Using the optimized ANN model, we forecasted malaria cases for the next 24 months, predicting a steady increase from January 2024 to December 2025, with seasonal peaks. This study underscores the potential of machine learning approaches, particularly ANNs, in epidemiological modelling and highlights the importance of integrating environmental factors into malaria prediction models, recommending the ANN model for informing more targeted and efficient malaria control strategies to improve public health outcomes in Sierra Leone and similar settings.展开更多
文摘The critical role of patient-reported outcome measures(PROMs)in enhancing clinical decision-making and promoting patient-centered care has gained a profound significance in scientific research.PROMs encapsulate a patient's health status directly from their perspective,encompassing various domains such as symptom severity,functional status,and overall quality of life.By integrating PROMs into routine clinical practice and research,healthcare providers can achieve a more nuanced understanding of patient experiences and tailor treatments accordingly.The deployment of PROMs supports dynamic patient-provider interactions,fostering better patient engagement and adherence to tre-atment plans.Moreover,PROMs are pivotal in clinical settings for monitoring disease progression and treatment efficacy,particularly in chronic and mental health conditions.However,challenges in implementing PROMs include data collection and management,integration into existing health systems,and acceptance by patients and providers.Overcoming these barriers necessitates technological advancements,policy development,and continuous education to enhance the acceptability and effectiveness of PROMs.The paper concludes with recommendations for future research and policy-making aimed at optimizing the use and impact of PROMs across healthcare settings.
基金supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant 52077002。
文摘Model predictive control(MPC)has been deemed as an attractive control method in motor drives by virtue of its simple structure,convenient multi-objective optimization,and satisfactory dynamic performance.However,the strong reliance on mathematical models seriously restrains its practical application.Therefore,improving the robustness of MPC has attained significant attentions in the last two decades,followed by which,model-free predictive control(MFPC)comes into existence.This article aims to reveal the current state of MFPC strategies for motor drives and give the categorization from the perspective of implementation.Based on this review,the principles of the reported MFPC strategies are introduced in detail,as well as the challenges encountered in technology realization.In addition,some of typical and important concepts are experimentally validated via case studies to evaluate the performance and highlight their features.Finally,the future trends of MFPC are discussed based on the current state and reported developments.
基金Supported by National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2022YFE0117100)National Science Foundation of China(Grant No.52102468,52325212)Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities。
文摘To solve problems of poor security guarantee and insufficient training efficiency in the conventional reinforcement learning methods for decision-making,this study proposes a hybrid framework to combine deep reinforcement learning with rule-based decision-making methods.A risk assessment model for lane-change maneuvers considering uncertain predictions of surrounding vehicles is established as a safety filter to improve learning efficiency while correcting dangerous actions for safety enhancement.On this basis,a Risk-fused DDQN is constructed utilizing the model-based risk assessment and supervision mechanism.The proposed reinforcement learning algorithm sets up a separate experience buffer for dangerous trials and punishes such actions,which is shown to improve the sampling efficiency and training outcomes.Compared with conventional DDQN methods,the proposed algorithm improves the convergence value of cumulated reward by 7.6%and 2.2%in the two constructed scenarios in the simulation study and reduces the number of training episodes by 52.2%and 66.8%respectively.The success rate of lane change is improved by 57.3%while the time headway is increased at least by 16.5%in real vehicle tests,which confirms the higher training efficiency,scenario adaptability,and security of the proposed Risk-fused DDQN.
基金supported in part by the Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.U2468201 and 62221001ZTE Industry-University-Institute Cooperation Funds under Grant No.IA20240420002。
文摘Accurate channel state information(CSI)is crucial for 6G wireless communication systems to accommodate the growing demands of mobile broadband services.In massive multiple-input multiple-output(MIMO)systems,traditional CSI feedback approaches face challenges such as performance degradation due to feedback delay and channel aging caused by user mobility.To address these issues,we propose a novel spatio-temporal predictive network(STPNet)that jointly integrates CSI feedback and prediction modules.STPNet employs stacked Inception modules to learn the spatial correlation and temporal evolution of CSI,which captures both the local and the global spatiotemporal features.In addition,the signal-to-noise ratio(SNR)adaptive module is designed to adapt flexibly to diverse feedback channel conditions.Simulation results demonstrate that STPNet outperforms existing channel prediction methods under various channel conditions.
基金supported by the Deanship of Graduate Studies and Scientific Research at Qassim University(QU-APC-2024-9/1).
文摘Due to the numerous variables to take into account as well as the inherent ambiguity and uncertainty,evaluating educational institutions can be difficult.The concept of a possibility Pythagorean fuzzy hypersoft set(pPyFHSS)is more flexible in this regard than other theoretical fuzzy set-like models,even though some attempts have been made in the literature to address such uncertainties.This study investigates the elementary notions of pPyFHSS including its set-theoretic operations union,intersection,complement,OR-and AND-operations.Some results related to these operations are also modified for pPyFHSS.Additionally,the similarity measures between pPyFHSSs are formulated with the assistance of numerical examples and results.Lastly,an intelligent decision-assisted mechanism is developed with the proposal of a robust algorithm based on similarity measures for solving multi-attribute decision-making(MADM)problems.A case study that helps the decision-makers assess the best educational institution is discussed to validate the suggested system.The algorithmic results are compared with the most pertinent model to evaluate the adaptability of pPyFHSS,as it generalizes the classical possibility fuzzy set-like theoretical models.Similarly,while considering significant evaluating factors,the flexibility of pPyFHSS is observed through structural comparison.
基金Supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China,No.2022YFC2503600。
文摘BACKGROUND The discrepancy between endoscopic biopsy pathology and the overall pathology of gastric low-grade intraepithelial neoplasia(LGIN)presents challenges in developing diagnostic and treatment protocols.AIM To develop a risk prediction model for the pathological upgrading of gastric LGIN to aid clinical diagnosis and treatment.METHODS We retrospectively analyzed data from patients newly diagnosed with gastric LGIN who underwent complete endoscopic resection within 6 months at the First Medical Center of Chinese People’s Liberation Army General Hospital between January 2008 and December 2023.A risk prediction model for the pathological progression of gastric LGIN was constructed and evaluated for accuracy and clinical applicability.RESULTS A total of 171 patients were included in this study:93 patients with high-grade intraepithelial neoplasia or early gastric cancer and 78 with LGIN.The logistic stepwise regression model demonstrated a sensitivity and specificity of 0.868 and 0.800,respectively,while the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator(LASSO)regression model showed sensitivity and specificity values of 0.842 and 0.840,respectively.The area under the curve(AUC)for the logistic model was 0.896,slightly lower than the AUC of 0.904 for the LASSO model.Internal validation with 30%of the data yielded AUC scores of 0.908 for the logistic model and 0.905 for the LASSO model.The LASSO model provided greater utility in clinical decision-making.CONCLUSION A risk prediction model for the pathological upgrading of gastric LGIN based on white-light and magnifying endoscopic features can accurately and effectively guide clinical diagnosis and treatment.
基金supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(62173255,62188101)Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Control Theory and Intelligent Systems(ZDSYS20220330161800001)
文摘Dear Editor,In this letter,a constrained networked predictive control strategy is proposed for the optimal control problem of complex nonlinear highorder fully actuated(HOFA)systems with noises.The method can effectively deal with nonlinearities,constraints,and noises in the system,optimize the performance metric,and present an upper bound on the stable output of the system.
文摘BACKGROUND An increasing number of studies to date have found preoperative magnetic resonance imaging(MRI)features valuable in predicting the prognosis of rectal cancer(RC).However,research is still lacking on the correlation between preoperative MRI features and the risk of recurrence after radical resection of RC,urgently necessitating further in-depth exploration.AIM To investigate the correlation between preoperative MRI parameters and the risk of recurrence after radical resection of RC to provide an effective tool for predicting postoperative recurrence.METHODS The data of 90 patients who were diagnosed with RC by surgical pathology and underwent radical surgical resection at the Second Affiliated Hospital of Bengbu Medical University between May 2020 and December 2023 were collected through retrospective analysis.General demographic data,MRI data,and tumor markers levels were collected.According to the reviewed data of patients six months after surgery,the clinicians comprehensively assessed the recurrence risk and divided the patients into high recurrence risk(37 cases)and low recurrence risk(53 cases)groups.Independent sample t-test andχ2 test were used to analyze differences between the two groups.A logistic regression model was used to explore the risk factors of the high recurrence risk group,and a clinical prediction model was constructed.The clinical prediction model is presented in the form of a nomogram.The receiver operating characteristic curve,Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test,calibration curve,and decision curve analysis were used to evaluate the efficacy of the clinical prediction model.RESULTS The detection of positive extramural vascular invasion through preoperative MRI[odds ratio(OR)=4.29,P=0.045],along with elevated carcinoembryonic antigen(OR=1.08,P=0.041),carbohydrate antigen 125(OR=1.19,P=0.034),and carbohydrate antigen 199(OR=1.27,P<0.001)levels,are independent risk factors for increased postoperative recurrence risk in patients with RC.Furthermore,there was a correlation between magnetic resonance based T staging,magnetic resonance based N staging,and circumferential resection margin results determined by MRI and the postoperative recurrence risk.Additionally,when extramural vascular invasion was integrated with tumor markers,the resulting clinical prediction model more effectively identified patients at high risk for postoperative recurrence,thereby providing robust support for clinical decision-making.CONCLUSION The results of this study indicate that preoperative MRI detection is of great importance for predicting the risk of postoperative recurrence in patients with RC.Monitoring these markers helps clinicians identify patients at high risk,allowing for more aggressive treatment and monitoring strategies to improve patient outcomes.
文摘Accurate medical diagnosis,which involves identifying diseases based on patient symptoms,is often hindered by uncertainties in data interpretation and retrieval.Advanced fuzzy set theories have emerged as effective tools to address these challenges.In this paper,new mathematical approaches for handling uncertainty in medical diagnosis are introduced using q-rung orthopair fuzzy sets(q-ROFS)and interval-valued q-rung orthopair fuzzy sets(IVq-ROFS).Three aggregation operators are proposed in our methodologies:the q-ROF weighted averaging(q-ROFWA),the q-ROF weighted geometric(q-ROFWG),and the q-ROF weighted neutrality averaging(qROFWNA),which enhance decision-making under uncertainty.These operators are paired with ranking methods such as the similarity measure,score function,and inverse score function to improve the accuracy of disease identification.Additionally,the impact of varying q-rung values is explored through a sensitivity analysis,extending the analysis beyond the typical maximum value of 3.The Basic Uncertain Information(BUI)method is employed to simulate expert opinions,and aggregation operators are used to combine these opinions in a group decisionmaking context.Our results provide a comprehensive comparison of methodologies,highlighting their strengths and limitations in diagnosing diseases based on uncertain patient data.
基金Construction Program of the Key Discipline of State Administration of Traditional Chinese Medicine of China(ZYYZDXK-2023069)Research Project of Shanghai Municipal Health Commission (2024QN018)Shanghai University of Traditional Chinese Medicine Science and Technology Development Program (23KFL005)。
文摘Objective To develop a non-invasive predictive model for coronary artery stenosis severity based on adaptive multi-modal integration of traditional Chinese and western medicine data.Methods Clinical indicators,echocardiographic data,traditional Chinese medicine(TCM)tongue manifestations,and facial features were collected from patients who underwent coro-nary computed tomography angiography(CTA)in the Cardiac Care Unit(CCU)of Shanghai Tenth People's Hospital between May 1,2023 and May 1,2024.An adaptive weighted multi-modal data fusion(AWMDF)model based on deep learning was constructed to predict the severity of coronary artery stenosis.The model was evaluated using metrics including accura-cy,precision,recall,F1 score,and the area under the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve(AUC).Further performance assessment was conducted through comparisons with six ensemble machine learning methods,data ablation,model component ablation,and various decision-level fusion strategies.Results A total of 158 patients were included in the study.The AWMDF model achieved ex-cellent predictive performance(AUC=0.973,accuracy=0.937,precision=0.937,recall=0.929,and F1 score=0.933).Compared with model ablation,data ablation experiments,and various traditional machine learning models,the AWMDF model demonstrated superior per-formance.Moreover,the adaptive weighting strategy outperformed alternative approaches,including simple weighting,averaging,voting,and fixed-weight schemes.Conclusion The AWMDF model demonstrates potential clinical value in the non-invasive prediction of coronary artery disease and could serve as a tool for clinical decision support.
文摘Fluctuating voltage levels in power grids necessitate automatic voltage regulators(AVRs)to ensure stability.This study examined the modeling and control of AVR in hydroelectric power plants using model predictive control(MPC),which utilizes an extensive mathe-matical model of the voltage regulation system to optimize the control actions over a defined prediction horizon.This predictive feature enables MPC to minimize voltage deviations while accounting for operational constraints,thereby improving stability and performance under dynamic conditions.Thefindings were compared with those derived from an optimal proportional integral derivative(PID)con-troller designed using the artificial bee colony(ABC)algorithm.Although the ABC-PID method adjusts the PID parameters based on historical data,it may be difficult to adapt to real-time changes in system dynamics under constraints.Comprehensive simulations assessed both frameworks,emphasizing performance metrics such as disturbance rejection,response to load changes,and resilience to uncertainties.The results show that both MPC and ABC-PID methods effectively achieved accurate voltage regulation;however,MPC excelled in controlling overshoot and settling time—recording 0.0%and 0.25 s,respectively.This demonstrates greater robustness compared to conventional control methods that optimize PID parameters based on performance criteria derived from actual system behavior,which exhibited settling times and overshoots exceeding 0.41 s and 5.0%,respectively.The controllers were implemented using MATLAB/Simulink software,indicating a significant advancement for power plant engineers pursuing state-of-the-art automatic voltage regulations.
文摘BACKGROUND Understanding a patient's clinical status and setting priorities for their care are two aspects of the constantly changing process of clinical decision-making.One analytical technique that can be helpful in uncertain situations is clinical judgment.Clinicians must deal with contradictory information,lack of time to make decisions,and long-term factors when emergencies occur.AIM To examine the ethical issues healthcare professionals faced during the coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)pandemic and the factors affecting clinical decision-making.METHODS This pilot study,which means it was a preliminary investigation to gather information and test the feasibility of a larger investigation was conducted over 6 months and we invited responses from clinicians worldwide who managed patients with COVID-19.The survey focused on topics related to their professional roles and personal relationships.We examined five core areas influencing critical care decision-making:Patients'personal factors,family-related factors,informed consent,communication and media,and hospital administrative policies on clinical decision-making.The collected data were analyzed using the χ^(2) test for categorical variables.RESULTS A total of 102 clinicians from 23 specialties and 17 countries responded to the survey.Age was a significant factor in treatment planning(n=88)and ventilator access(n=78).Sex had no bearing on how decisions were made.Most doctors reported maintaining patient confidentiality regarding privacy and informed consent.Approximately 50%of clinicians reported a moderate influence of clinical work,with many citing it as one of the most important factors affecting their health and relationships.Clinicians from developing countries had a significantly higher score for considering a patient's financial status when creating a treatment plan than their counterparts from developed countries.Regarding personal experiences,some respondents noted that treatment plans and preferences changed from wave to wave,and that there was a rapid turnover of studies and evidence.Hospital and government policies also played a role in critical decision-making.Rather than assessing the appropriateness of treatment,some doctors observed that hospital policies regarding medications were driven by patient demand.CONCLUSION Factors other than medical considerations frequently affect management choices.The disparity in treatment choices,became more apparent during the pandemic.We highlight the difficulties and contradictions between moral standards and the realities physicians encountered during this medical emergency.False information,large patient populations,and limited resources caused problems for clinicians.These factors impacted decision-making,which,in turn,affected patient care and healthcare staff well-being.
文摘While Artificial Intelligence (AI) is leading the way in terms of hardware advancements, such as GPUs, memory, and processing power, real-time applications are still catching up. It is inevitable that when one aspect leads and other trails behind, they coexist in life, as is often the case. The trailing aspect cannot remain far behind because, without application and use, there would be a dead end. Everything, whether an object, software, or tool, must have a practical use for humans. Without this, it will become obsolete. We can see this in many instances, such as blockchain technology, which is superior yet faces challenges in practical implementation, leading to a decline in adoption. This publication aims to bridge the gap between AI advancements and maintenance, specifically focusing on making predictive maintenance a practical application. There are multiple building blocks that make predictive maintenance a practical application. Each block performs a function leading to an output. This output forms an input to the receiving block. There are also foundational parts for all these building blocks to perform a function. Eventually, once the building blocks are connected, they form a loop and start to lead the path to predictive maintenance. Predictive maintenance is indeed practically achievable, but one must comprehend all the building blocks necessary for its implementation. Although detailed explanations will be provided in the upcoming sections, it is important to understand that simply purchasing software and plugging it in might be a far-fetched approach.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(12072090).
文摘This work proposes the application of an iterative learning model predictive control(ILMPC)approach based on an adaptive fault observer(FOBILMPC)for fault-tolerant control and trajectory tracking in air-breathing hypersonic vehicles.In order to increase the control amount,this online control legislation makes use of model predictive control(MPC)that is based on the concept of iterative learning control(ILC).By using offline data to decrease the linearized model’s faults,the strategy may effectively increase the robustness of the control system and guarantee that disturbances can be suppressed.An adaptive fault observer is created based on the suggested ILMPC approach in order to enhance overall fault tolerance by estimating and compensating for actuator disturbance and fault degree.During the derivation process,a linearized model of longitudinal dynamics is established.The suggested ILMPC approach is likely to be used in the design of hypersonic vehicle control systems since numerical simulations have demonstrated that it can decrease tracking error and speed up convergence when compared to the offline controller.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(12262028)Program for Young Talents of Science and Technology in Universities of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region(NJYT22085)Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Science and Technology Plan Project(2021GG0437)。
文摘The predictive model and design of heavy-duty metal rubber shock absorber for the powertrains of heavy-load mining vehicles were investigated.The microstructural characteristics of the wire mesh were elucidated using fractal graphs.A numerical model based on virtual fabrication technique was established to propose a design scheme for the wire mesh component.Four sets of wire mesh shock absorbers with various relative densities were prepared and a predictive model based on these relative densities was established through mechanical testing.To further enhance the predictive accuracy,a variable transposition fitting method was proposed to refine the model.Residual analysis was employed to quantitatively validate the results against those obtained from an experimental control group.The results show that the improved model exhibits higher predictive accuracy than the original model,with the determination coefficient(R^(2))of 0.9624.This study provides theoretical support for designing wire mesh shock absorbers with reduced testing requirements and enhanced design efficiency.
文摘Objectives This study aimed to clarify the relationship between the content of proxy decision-making made by families of patients with malignant brain tumors regarding treatment policies and daily care and the cues leading to those decisions.Methods Semi-structured personal interviews were used to collect data.Seven family members of patients with malignant brain tumors were selected to participate in the study by purposive sampling method from June to August 2022 in the Patient Family Association of Japan.Responses were content analyzed to explore the relationship between the content of decisions regarding“treatment policies”and“daily care”and the cues influencing those decisions.Semi-structured interviews were analyzed by using thematic analysis.Results The contents of proxy decisions regarding“treatment policies”included implementation,interruption,and termination of initial treatments,free medical treatments,use of respirators,and end-of-life sedation and included six cues:treatment policies suggested by the primary physician,information and knowledge about the disease and treatment obtained by the family from limited resources,perceived life threat from symptom worsening,words and reactions from the patient regarding treatment,patient’s personality and way of life inferred from their treatment preferences,family’s thoughts and values hoping for better treatment for the patient.Decisions for“daily care”included meal content and methods,excretion,mobility,maintaining cleanliness,rehabilitation,continuation or resignation from work,treatment settings(outpatient or inpatient),and ways to spend time outside and included seven cues:words and thoughts from the patient about their way of life,patient’s reactions and life history inferred from their preferred way of living,things the patient can do to maintain daily life and roles,awareness of the increasing inability to do things in daily life,family’s underlying thoughts and values about how to spend the remaining time,approval from family members regarding the care setting,advice from medical professionals on living at home.Conclusions For“treatment policies,”guidelines from medical professionals were a key cue,while for“daily care,”the small signs from the patients in their daily lives served as cues for proxy decision-making.This may be due to the lack of information available to families and the limited time available for discussion with the patient.Families of patients with malignant brain tumors repeatedly use multiple cues to make proxy decision-making under high uncertainty.Therefore,nurses supporting proxy decision-making should assess the family’s situation and provide cues that facilitate informed and confident decisions.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant no.32101237)the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(Grant no.2021M691522)+1 种基金the National Key Research and Development Program(Grant no.2022YFC3202104)the Tibet Major Science and Technology Project(Grant no.XZ201901-GA-06).
文摘Group living is widespread across diverse taxa,and the mechanisms underlying collective decision-making in contexts of variable role division are critical for understanding the dynamics of group stability.While studies on collective behavior in small animals such as fish and insects are well-established,similar research on large wild animals remains challenging due to the limited availability of sufficient and systematic field data.Here,we aimed to explore the collective decision-making pattern and its sexual difference for the dimorphic Tibetan antelopes Pantholops hodgsonii(chiru)in Xizang Autonomous Region,China,by analyzing individual leadership distribution,as well as the joining process,considering factors such as calving stages and joining ranks.The distinct correlations of decision participants’ratio with group size and decision duration underscore the trade-off between accuracy and speed in decision-making.Male antelopes display a more democratic decision-making pattern,while females exhibit more prompt responses after calving at an early stage.This study uncovers a partially shared decision-making strategy among Tibetan antelopes,suggesting flexible self-organization in group decision processes aligned with animal life cycle progression.
文摘BACKGROUND Mesalamine is the recommended first-line treatment for inducing and maintaining remission in mild-to-moderate ulcerative colitis(UC).However,adherence in real-world settings is frequently suboptimal.Encouraging collaborative patient-provider relationships may foster better adherence and patient outcomes.AIM To quantify the association between patient participation in treatment decisionmaking and adherence to oral mesalamine in UC.METHODS We conducted a 12-month,prospective,non-interventional cohort study at 113 gastroenterology practices in Germany.Eligible patients were aged≥18 years,had a confirmed UC diagnosis,had no prior mesalamine treatment,and provided informed consent.At the first visit,we collected data on demographics,clinical characteristics,patient preference for mesalamine formulation(tablets or granules),and disease knowledge.Self-reported adherence and disease activity were assessed at all visits.Correlation analyses and logistic regression were used to examine associations between adherence and various factors.RESULTS Of the 605 consecutively screened patients,520 were included in the study.The median age was 41 years(range:18-91),with a male-to-female ratio of 1.1:1.0.Approximately 75%of patients reported good adherence at each study visit.In correlation analyses,patient participation in treatment decision-making was significantly associated with better adherence across all visits(P=0.04).In the regression analysis at 12 months,this association was evident among patients who both preferred and received prolonged-release mesalamine granules(odds ratio=2.73,P=0.001).Patients reporting good adherence also experienced significant improvements in disease activity over 12 months(P<0.001).CONCLUSION Facilitating patient participation in treatment decisions and accommodating medication preferences may improve adherence to mesalamine.This may require additional effort but has the potential to improve long-term management of UC.
文摘Malaria remains a major public health challenge necessitating accurate predictive models to inform effective intervention strategies in Sierra Leone. This study compares the performance of Holt-Winters’ Exponential Smoothing, Harmonic, and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models using data from January 2018 to December 2023, incorporating both historical case records from Sierra Leone’s Health Management Information System (HMIS) and meteorological variables including humidity, precipitation, and temperature. The ANN model demonstrated superior performance, achieving a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 4.74% before including climatic variables. This was further reduced to 3.9% with the inclusion of climatic variables, outperforming traditional models like Holt-Winters and Harmonic, which yielded MAPEs of 22.53% and 17.90% respectively. The ANN’s success is attributed to its ability to capture complex, non-linear relationships in the data, particularly when enhanced with relevant climatic variables. Using the optimized ANN model, we forecasted malaria cases for the next 24 months, predicting a steady increase from January 2024 to December 2025, with seasonal peaks. This study underscores the potential of machine learning approaches, particularly ANNs, in epidemiological modelling and highlights the importance of integrating environmental factors into malaria prediction models, recommending the ANN model for informing more targeted and efficient malaria control strategies to improve public health outcomes in Sierra Leone and similar settings.
