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Flood predictions from metrics to classes by multiple machine learning algorithms coupling with clustering-deduced membership degree
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作者 ZHAI Xiaoyan ZHANG Yongyong +5 位作者 XIA Jun ZHANG Yongqiang TANG Qiuhong SHAO Quanxi CHEN Junxu ZHANG Fan 《Journal of Geographical Sciences》 2026年第1期149-176,共28页
Accurate prediction of flood events is important for flood control and risk management.Machine learning techniques contributed greatly to advances in flood predictions,and existing studies mainly focused on predicting... Accurate prediction of flood events is important for flood control and risk management.Machine learning techniques contributed greatly to advances in flood predictions,and existing studies mainly focused on predicting flood resource variables using single or hybrid machine learning techniques.However,class-based flood predictions have rarely been investigated,which can aid in quickly diagnosing comprehensive flood characteristics and proposing targeted management strategies.This study proposed a prediction approach of flood regime metrics and event classes coupling machine learning algorithms with clustering-deduced membership degrees.Five algorithms were adopted for this exploration.Results showed that the class membership degrees accurately determined event classes with class hit rates up to 100%,compared with the four classes clustered from nine regime metrics.The nonlinear algorithms(Multiple Linear Regression,Random Forest,and least squares-Support Vector Machine)outperformed the linear techniques(Multiple Linear Regression and Stepwise Regression)in predicting flood regime metrics.The proposed approach well predicted flood event classes with average class hit rates of 66.0%-85.4%and 47.2%-76.0%in calibration and validation periods,respectively,particularly for the slow and late flood events.The predictive capability of the proposed prediction approach for flood regime metrics and classes was considerably stronger than that of hydrological modeling approach. 展开更多
关键词 flood regime metrics class prediction machine learning algorithms hydrological model
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Disease Burden and Trends of COPD in the Asia-Pacific Region(1990-2019)and Predictions to 2034 被引量:1
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作者 Jing Ma Hong Mi 《Biomedical and Environmental Sciences》 2025年第5期557-570,共14页
Objective The Asia-Pacific region has a high chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(COPD)burden,but studies on its trends are limited.Using the Global Burden of Disease(GBD)2019 data,we analyzed COPD trends in 36 count... Objective The Asia-Pacific region has a high chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(COPD)burden,but studies on its trends are limited.Using the Global Burden of Disease(GBD)2019 data,we analyzed COPD trends in 36 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019 and predicted future incidence trends through 2034.Methods COPD data by age and sex from the GBD 2019 database were analyzed for incidence,prevalence,mortality,and disability-adjusted life years(DALY)rates from 1990 to 2019.Joinpoint regression identified significant annual trends,and age-standardized incidence rates were predicted through 2034 using age-period-cohort models.Results The incidence,prevalence,mortality,and disease burden of COPD have been decreasing,and the incidence rates will continue to decrease or remain stable until 2034 in most selected countries and territories,except for a few Southeastern Asian countries.The Lao People’s Democratic Republic and Vietnam are projected to experience an increase in COPD incidence from 165.3 per 100,000 in 2019 to 177 per 100,000 in 2034 and from 179.9 per 100,000 in 2019 to 192.5 per 100,000 in 2034,respectively.Older males had a higher incidence than any other sex or age group.The sex gap in incidence rates continues to widen,though it is smaller and less significant in the younger age group than in those in the older one.Conclusion COPD rates are expected to decline until 2034 but remain a health risk,especially in countries with rising rates.Urgent action on tobacco control,air pollution,and public education is needed. 展开更多
关键词 COPD ASIA-PACIFIC INCIDENCE Disease burden TRENDS Prediction
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CMBA-FL: Communication-mitigated and blockchain-assisted federated learning for traffic flow predictions 被引量:1
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作者 Kaiyin Zhu Mingming Lu +2 位作者 Haifeng Li Neal NXiong Wenyong He 《Digital Communications and Networks》 2025年第3期724-733,共10页
As an effective strategy to address urban traffic congestion,traffic flow prediction has gained attention from Federated-Learning(FL)researchers due FL’s ability to preserving data privacy.However,existing methods fa... As an effective strategy to address urban traffic congestion,traffic flow prediction has gained attention from Federated-Learning(FL)researchers due FL’s ability to preserving data privacy.However,existing methods face challenges:some are too simplistic to capture complex traffic patterns effectively,and others are overly complex,leading to excessive communication overhead between cloud and edge devices.Moreover,the problem of single point failure limits their robustness and reliability in real-world applications.To tackle these challenges,this paper proposes a new method,CMBA-FL,a Communication-Mitigated and Blockchain-Assisted Federated Learning model.First,CMBA-FL improves the client model’s ability to capture temporal traffic patterns by employing the Encoder-Decoder framework for each edge device.Second,to reduce the communication overhead during federated learning,we introduce a verification method based on parameter update consistency,avoiding unnecessary parameter updates.Third,to mitigate the risk of a single point of failure,we integrate consensus mechanisms from blockchain technology.To validate the effectiveness of CMBA-FL,we assess its performance on two widely used traffic datasets.Our experimental results show that CMBA-FL reduces prediction error by 11.46%,significantly lowers communication overhead,and improves security. 展开更多
关键词 Blockchain Communication mitigating Federated learning Traffic flow prediction
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Spatial Random Effects Improve the Predictions of Multispecies Distribution in a Marine Fish Assemblage
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作者 XU Tianheng ZHANG Chongliang +3 位作者 XU Binduo XUE Ying JI Yupeng REN Yiping 《Journal of Ocean University of China》 2025年第2期471-482,共12页
Species distribution patterns is one of the important topics in ecology and biological conservation.Although species distribution models have been intensively used in the research,the effects of spatial associations a... Species distribution patterns is one of the important topics in ecology and biological conservation.Although species distribution models have been intensively used in the research,the effects of spatial associations and spatial dependence have been rarely taken into account in the modeling processes.Recently,Joint Species Distribution Models(JSDMs)offer the opportunity to consider both environmental factors and interspecific relationships as well as the role of spatial structures.This study uses the HMSC(Hierarchical Modelling of Species Communities)framework to model the multispecies distribution of a marine fish assemblage,in which spatial associations and spatial dependence is deliberately accounted for.Three HMSC models were implemented with different structures of random effects to address the existence of spatial associations and spatial dependence,and the predictive performances at different levels of sample sizes were analyzed in the assessment.The results showed that the models with random effects could account for a larger proportion of explainable variance(32.8%),and particularly the spatial random effect model provided the best predictive performances(R_(mean)^(2)=0.31),indicating that spatial random effects could substantially influence the results of the joint species distribution.Increasing sample size had a strong effect(R_(mean)^(2)=0.24-0.31)on the predictive accuracy of the spatially-structured model than on the other models,suggesting that optimal model selection should be dependent on sample size.This study highlights the importance of incorporating spatial random effects for JSDM predictions and suggests that the choice of model structures should consider the data quality across species. 展开更多
关键词 HMSC spatial autocorrelation JSDM sample size PREDICTABILITY
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Analysis of the Disease Burden of Knee Osteoarthritis in China from 1990 to 2021, Attributable Risk Factors, and Predictions for 2035
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作者 Weigang Liu Qian Wu Heqing Tang 《Journal of Clinical and Nursing Research》 2025年第9期360-369,共10页
Objective:Knee osteoarthritis is one of the important causes of disability worldwide.This study aims to analyze the disease burden of knee osteoarthritis,attributable risk factors among Chinese residents from 1990 to ... Objective:Knee osteoarthritis is one of the important causes of disability worldwide.This study aims to analyze the disease burden of knee osteoarthritis,attributable risk factors among Chinese residents from 1990 to 2021,and predict the disease burden trend for 2035.Methods:Data related to knee osteoarthritis in China from 1990 to 2021,including the number of incident cases,incidence rate,number of prevalent cases,prevalence rate,and years lived with disability(YLDs),were collected from the Global Burden of Disease Study(GBD2021)database.Joinpoint regression analysis was used to assess time trends,and the Bayesian-Age-Period-Cohort(BAPC)regression model was employed for future predictions.Results:From 1990 to 2021,the number of incident cases of knee osteoarthritis among Chinese residents increased from 3.65 million to 8.51 million,a rise of 133.16%,with an average annual increase of 3.15%.The incidence rate increased from 310.33 per 100,000 to 598.31 per 100,000,a rise of 92.80%,with an average annual increase of 2.55%.The number of prevalent cases increased from 41.04 million to 110 million,a rise of 166.97%,with an average annual increase of 3.61%.The prevalence rate increased from 3488.78 per 100,000 to 7701.69 per 100,000,a rise of 120.76%,with an average annual increase of 3.00%.The number of YLDs increased from 1.34 million to 3.55 million,a rise of 165.32%,with an average annual increase of 3.59%.The YLD rate increased from 113.86 per 100,000 to 249.81 per 100,000,a rise of 119.39%,with an average annual increase of 2.99%.High BMI was the only significant attributable risk factor,with the proportion of YLDs it caused continuing to rise.Predictions for 2035:The number of incident cases is expected to decline slightly from 5.89 million in 2022 to 5.72 million in 2035.The number of prevalent cases is expected to peak at 72.42 million in 2029 and be around 72.69 million in 2035.The number of YLDs is expected to increase year by year,from 2.35 million in 2022 to 2.35 million in 2035.Conclusion:The study reveals the increasing prevalence and disease burden of knee osteoarthritis among Chinese residents,emphasizing the importance of interventions targeting controllable risk factors.Although the prediction shows a slight decline in the number of incident cases in 2035,the number of prevalent cases and years of disability are expected to remain high,indicating the need for continued monitoring and intervention. 展开更多
关键词 Knee osteoarthritis Disease burden Attributable risk factors PREDICTION China
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Swarm-intelligent predictions of high-T_(C)polymorphs in monolayer CrI_(3)above 77 K
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作者 Ying Luo Shuangyi Xu +1 位作者 Yanan Wang Yunwei Zhang 《Chinese Physics B》 2025年第11期492-497,共6页
Monolayer CrI_(3),crystalizing in the P31m space group,is a prototypical two-dimensional(2D)material for observing intrinsic ferromagnetic order.However,its relatively low Curie temperature(T_(C))of 45 K severely limi... Monolayer CrI_(3),crystalizing in the P31m space group,is a prototypical two-dimensional(2D)material for observing intrinsic ferromagnetic order.However,its relatively low Curie temperature(T_(C))of 45 K severely limits its practical applications,highlighting the need to explore novel metastable polymorphs with enhanced magnetic properties.In this study,we employ a global crystal structure search technique combined with first-principles calculations to systematically investigate new monolayer CrI_(3)phases.Our structural predictions identify two novel polymorphs with Cm and P2/m space groups,both of which are dynamically stable and exhibit significantly higher T_(C)values of 145 K and 81 K,respectively.Electronic property calculations show that the Cm phase is a half-metal,while the P2/m phase is semiconducting with a bandgap of 0.14 eV.Monte Carlo simulations attribute these enhanced T_(C)values to a notable increase in exchange interactions.These findings expand the known phase space of CrI_(3)and provide a promising pathway for designing hightemperature 2D ferromagnets for next-generation spintronic applications. 展开更多
关键词 chromium triiodide 2D magnets structure prediction first-principles calculations monolayer structure
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Proposed Measures to Prevent Maritime Collision Accidents-Analysis Combining the SHELL Model with Predictions
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作者 Yoshiaki Kunied Akihiro Nunome +1 位作者 Emi Kanayama Naruphun Chotechaung 《Journal of Civil Engineering and Architecture》 2025年第11期547-559,共13页
We analyzed accident factors in a 2020 ship collision case that occurred off Kii Oshima Island using the SHELL model analysis and examined corresponding collision prevention measures.The SHELL model analysis is a fram... We analyzed accident factors in a 2020 ship collision case that occurred off Kii Oshima Island using the SHELL model analysis and examined corresponding collision prevention measures.The SHELL model analysis is a framework for identifying accident factors related to human abilities and characteristics,hardware,software,and the environment.Beyond assessing the accident factors in each element,we also examined the interrelationship between humans and each element.This study highlights the importance of(1)training to enhance situational awareness,(2)improving decision-making skills,and(3)establishing structured decision-making procedures to prevent maritime collision accidents.Additionally,we considered safety measures through(4)hardware enhancements and(5)environmental measures.Furthermore,to prevent accidents,implementing measures grounded in(6)predictions is deemed effective.This study identified accident factors through prediction alongside the SHELL model analysis and proposed countermeasures based on the findings.By applying these predictions,more countermeasures can be derived,which,when combined strategically,can significantly aid in preventing maritime collision accidents. 展开更多
关键词 Maritime collision accidents SHELL model analysis prediction situational awareness decision-making ability
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OpenPoly:A Polymer Database Empowering Benchmarking and MultipropertyPredictions
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作者 Ji-Feng Wang Yu-Bo Sun +4 位作者 Qiu-Tong Chen Fei-Fan Ji Yuan-Yuan Song Meng-Yuan Ruan Ying Wang 《Chinese Journal of Polymer Science》 2025年第10期1749-1760,共12页
Advancing the integration of artificial intelligence and polymer science requires high-quality,open-source,and large-scale datasets.However,existing polymer databases often suffer from data sparsity,lack of polymer-pr... Advancing the integration of artificial intelligence and polymer science requires high-quality,open-source,and large-scale datasets.However,existing polymer databases often suffer from data sparsity,lack of polymer-property labels,and limited accessibility,hindering system-atic modeling across property prediction tasks.Here,we present OpenPoly,a curated experimental polymer database derived from extensive lit-erature mining and manual validation,comprising 3985 unique polymer-property data points spanning 26 key properties.We further develop a multi-task benchmarking framework that evaluates property prediction using four encoding methods and eight representative models.Our re-sults highlight that the optimized degree-of-polymerization encoding coupled with Morgan fingerprints achieves an optimal trade-off between computational cost and accuracy.In data-scarce condition,XGBoost outperforms deep learning models on key properties such as dielectric con-stant,glass transition temperature,melting point,and mechanical strength,achieving R2 scores of 0.65-0.87.To further showcase the practical utility of the database,we propose potential polymers for two energy-relevant applications:high temperature polymer dielectrics and fuel cell membranes.By offering a consistent and accessible benchmark and database,OpenPoly paves the way for more accurate polymer-property modeling and fosters data-driven advances in polymer genome engineering. 展开更多
关键词 Polymer database Polymer structure encoding Property prediction Functional reverse design Benchmark models
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Vibration signal predictions of damaged sensors on rotor blades based on operational modal analysis and virtual sensing
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作者 Yuhan SUN Zhiguang SONG +2 位作者 Jie LI Guochen CAI Zefeng WANG 《Chinese Journal of Aeronautics》 2025年第6期462-486,共25页
Rotor blade is one of the most significant components of helicopters. But due to its highspeed rotation characteristics, it is difficult to collect the vibration signals during the flight stage.Moreover, sensors are h... Rotor blade is one of the most significant components of helicopters. But due to its highspeed rotation characteristics, it is difficult to collect the vibration signals during the flight stage.Moreover, sensors are highly susceptible to damage resulting in the failure of the measurement.In order to make signal predictions for the damaged sensors, an operational modal analysis(OMA) together with the virtual sensing(VS) technology is proposed in this paper. This paper discusses two situations, i.e., mode shapes measured by all sensors(both normal and damaged) can be obtained using OMA, and mode shapes measured by some sensors(only including normal) can be obtained using OMA. For the second situation, it is necessary to use finite element(FE) analysis to supplement the missing mode shapes of damaged sensor. In order to improve the correlation between the FE model and the real structure, the FE mode shapes are corrected using the local correspondence(LC) principle and mode shapes measured by some sensors(only including normal).Then, based on the VS technology, the vibration signals of the damaged sensors during the flight stage can be accurately predicted using the identified mode shapes(obtained based on OMA and FE analysis) and the normal sensors signals. Given the high degrees of freedom(DOFs) in the FE mode shapes, this approach can also be used to predict vibration data at locations without sensors. The effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method is verified through finite element simulation, experiment as well as the actual flight test. The present work can be further used in the fault diagnosis and damage identification for rotor blade of helicopters. 展开更多
关键词 Composite helicopter rotor blades Operational modal analysis Virtual sensing Vibration prediction Model updating Finite element method
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天气-气候一体化模式无缝隙预报流程及其评估体系的构建
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作者 陈林 洪玉涛 +8 位作者 李昊谦 周旋 孙明 容新尧 苏京志 刘波 马利斌 彭珂 张荣华 《大气科学学报》 北大核心 2026年第1期196-207,共12页
以Global-Regional Integrated Forecast System with Modular Ocean Model(GRISTMOM)一体化模式为范例,构建了覆盖天气-次季节-季节尺度的0~90 d无缝隙预报流程,提出了一种兼具计算效率与预报性能需求的变分辨率无缝隙预报方案,并针对... 以Global-Regional Integrated Forecast System with Modular Ocean Model(GRISTMOM)一体化模式为范例,构建了覆盖天气-次季节-季节尺度的0~90 d无缝隙预报流程,提出了一种兼具计算效率与预报性能需求的变分辨率无缝隙预报方案,并针对该无缝隙预报流程在分辨率切换过程中的连续性与平稳性,设计了一套系统化的定量评估框架。本研究在GRISTMOM一体化模式无缝隙预报系统的基础上,以GRISTMOM变分辨率预报试验为应用范例,通过对关键大尺度背景场、典型天气系统及热带季节内振荡(Madden-Julian Oscillation,MJO)等多尺度特征的综合分析,对该无缝隙预报系统变分辨率衔接流程的连续平稳性进行了定量评估。结果表明:1)10 km×10 km切换为100 km×100 km的变分辨率预报过程中,大尺度环流场的预报误差在变分辨率衔接过渡阶段平滑无突变,表明该无缝隙流程在大尺度环流场上保持良好的连续性和稳定性;2)在对不同时空尺度预报对象的检验中,台风(典型天气系统)的路径、强度、降水落区及其环流结构在分辨率转换前后具有良好的时空一致性,MJO(典型次季节变率)的位相轨迹及其相关的对流-风场传播特征也能够在不同分辨率衔接中保持平滑延续,表明该流程在多尺度天气-气候信号传递方面具有良好的物理完整性。 展开更多
关键词 天气-气候一体化模式 无缝隙预报 无缝隙预报方案 变分辨率预报试验 无缝隙预报流程评估体系
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基于围术期多维度变量预测老年结直肠癌患者手术部位感染的模型构建及验证
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作者 杨春艳 吴敏 +6 位作者 张作华 马静 范书山 付欣 张锐 陈园园 张静亚 《中华医院感染学杂志》 北大核心 2026年第1期62-67,共6页
目的 探讨老年结直肠癌术后患者发生手术部位感染的影响因素,构建列线图预测模型并验证。方法 选取2021年1月-2025年5月聊城市人民医院收治的1 268例老年结直肠癌患者为研究对象,按照7∶3比例将其随机分配至模型训练集(n=888例)和验证集... 目的 探讨老年结直肠癌术后患者发生手术部位感染的影响因素,构建列线图预测模型并验证。方法 选取2021年1月-2025年5月聊城市人民医院收治的1 268例老年结直肠癌患者为研究对象,按照7∶3比例将其随机分配至模型训练集(n=888例)和验证集(n=380例)。采用LASSO-logistic回归进行变量筛选,并构建列线图模型,分别绘制受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线、校准曲线对模型性能进行内部验证。结果 糖尿病(OR=2.857, 95%CI:1.695~4.815)、ASA分级Ⅲ级(OR=2.081, 95%CI:1.210~3.580)、多发肿瘤(OR=5.613, 95%CI:2.745~11.479)、直肠肿瘤(OR=3.086, 95%CI:1.809~5.265)、糖类抗原19-9(CA19-9)>39 U/ml(OR=3.516, 95%CI:2.026~6.103)、手术时长(OR=1.519, 95%CI:1.179~1.957)是老年结直肠癌患者术后发生SSI的危险因素;CD4+/CD8+比值(OR=0.443, 95%CI:0.241~0.813)、血清白蛋白(OR=0.901, 95%CI:0.855~0.950)、择期手术(OR=0.109, 95%CI:0.032~0.375)是老年结直肠癌患者术后发生SSI的保护因素。基于上述指标构建列线图模型,验证集的曲线下面积(AUC)为0.797(95%CI:0.717~0.865),表明该模型区分度良好;Hosmer-Lemeshow拟合优度检验显示,该模型的准确性和一致性较好(χ2=6.315,P=0.097)。结论 本研究基于LASSO-logistic构建的列线图预测模型对于老年结直肠癌患者具有良好预测价值,有助于临床术前早期识别SSI高风险患者并实施针对性感控措施,优化围术期管理。 展开更多
关键词 老年 结直肠癌 手术部位感染 预测模型
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考虑HIS集成的柔性乳腺超声智能辅助诊断系统
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作者 付超 朱毅 +2 位作者 王冬越 崔凯旋 薛旻 《计算机工程与设计》 北大核心 2026年第1期226-234,共9页
面向乳腺肿瘤辅助诊断的灵活性和临床医生适应性等需求,设计开发了考虑HIS集成的柔性乳腺超声智能辅助诊断系统。构建了辅助诊断系统框架,包括临床需求层、预测算法层、系统数据层、系统功能层等4个层次。在此基础上,详细阐述了功能层... 面向乳腺肿瘤辅助诊断的灵活性和临床医生适应性等需求,设计开发了考虑HIS集成的柔性乳腺超声智能辅助诊断系统。构建了辅助诊断系统框架,包括临床需求层、预测算法层、系统数据层、系统功能层等4个层次。在此基础上,详细阐述了功能层中系统集成模块、模型建用模块和诊疗预测模块的功能设计与技术实现。以采自安徽省合肥市某三甲医院的乳腺超声图像和相关数据为基础,运用系统进行乳腺肿瘤诊断预测、恶性肿瘤分子分型预测、良性肿瘤类别预测实验,阐释了系统的应用性以及预测算法配置柔性。 展开更多
关键词 乳腺超声诊断 系统集成 柔性 分子分型预测 良性肿瘤类别预测 乳腺肿瘤 计算机辅助诊断
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经尿道前列腺电切术病人术后膀胱颈挛缩风险预测模型的构建与验证 被引量:1
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作者 蒋佳 过月红 +1 位作者 周媛婷 唐蕾 《循证护理》 2026年第1期189-194,共6页
目的:构建经尿道前列腺电切术(TURP)病人术后膀胱颈挛缩(BNC)风险预测模型,并验证模型预测效能。方法:采用便利抽样法,从江苏省无锡市第二人民医院2023年4月—2024年7月、2024年8月—10月收治的TURP病人中分别选取207例、52例,设为建模... 目的:构建经尿道前列腺电切术(TURP)病人术后膀胱颈挛缩(BNC)风险预测模型,并验证模型预测效能。方法:采用便利抽样法,从江苏省无锡市第二人民医院2023年4月—2024年7月、2024年8月—10月收治的TURP病人中分别选取207例、52例,设为建模组、验证组,收集病人临床资料,统计发生BNC病例数,进行单因素、多因素Logistic回归分析,筛选TURP病人术后BNC的危险因素,构建风险预测模型,并评价模型预测效能。结果:TURP病人术后发生BNC 31例,发生率为14.98%;多因素Logistic回归分析显示,TURP病人术后BNC危险因素有合并前列腺炎、冲洗液温度、冲洗液速度、术后留置尿管时间、导尿管气囊注水量(P<0.05);建模组受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线下面积(AUC)为0.814[95%C(I 0.772,0.854)],约登指数为0.623,灵敏度为0.788,特异度为0.835,提示模型有较好区分能力;Hosmer-Lemeshow拟合优度检验显示,χ^(2)=2.371,P=0.124,提示预测风险与实际情况有较好一致性;建模组校准曲线图显示,校正曲线与理想曲线较为一致,提示模型有较好的校准度。验证组病人术后BNC风险预测准确率为90.38%。验证组AUC为0.804[95%C(I 0.762,0.841)],约登指数为0.633,灵敏度为0.792,特异度为0.841,Hosmer-Lemeshow拟合优度检验显示,χ^(2)=1.307,P=0.253。校准曲线图显示,校正曲线与理想曲线较为接近。结论:TURP病人术后BNC风险较高,构建的TURP病人术后BNC风险预测模型能用于TURP病人术后BNC风险预测,可为术后护理提供参考。 展开更多
关键词 经尿道前列腺电切术 膀胱颈挛缩 危险因素 预测模型 护理
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基于改进变分模态分解与Informer组合模型的风电功率多步预测研究
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作者 郭晓鹏 赵琪 张国维 《现代电力》 北大核心 2026年第1期20-29,共10页
保证风电功率预测的准确性是提高风能利用效率、实现电力系统可持续发展的关键工作。因此,该文提出一种基于改进变分模态分解与Informer组合模型的风电功率多步预测模型。首先,采用随机森林模型对风速、风向、压强等原始气象因素进行筛... 保证风电功率预测的准确性是提高风能利用效率、实现电力系统可持续发展的关键工作。因此,该文提出一种基于改进变分模态分解与Informer组合模型的风电功率多步预测模型。首先,采用随机森林模型对风速、风向、压强等原始气象因素进行筛选。其次,通过鹈鹕优化算法改进后的变分模态分解算法对风电功率信号进行分解,从而提高风电序列预测精准性。第三,基于Informer模型对风电功率进行多步预测。最后,通过与其他模型进行对比分析,验证该模型在风电功率多步预测中的优越性。算例结果表明,基于改进变分模态分解与Informer组合模型的风电功率多步预测模型具有良好的预测性能,可为风电功率的预测提供参考。 展开更多
关键词 风电功率预测 随机森林 鹈鹕优化算法 信号分解 多步预测
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典型断层形变前兆异常的落实与思考
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作者 薄万举 徐东卓 +1 位作者 李腊月 陈长云 《地震研究》 北大核心 2026年第1期65-74,共10页
对中国大陆自1966年邢台7.2级地震以来在各主要地震带建立的跨断层测量场地获得的断层形变资料进行了梳理,对其中出现的单项断层形变异常、群体性准同步断层形变异常的特点及其在地震分析预测中的应用分别给出了实例;利用预测100 km内1... 对中国大陆自1966年邢台7.2级地震以来在各主要地震带建立的跨断层测量场地获得的断层形变资料进行了梳理,对其中出现的单项断层形变异常、群体性准同步断层形变异常的特点及其在地震分析预测中的应用分别给出了实例;利用预测100 km内1年内可能发生7级以上强震的预测指标(即满足K≥5),对所有资料出现的巨大幅度的断层形变异常变化进行了检索,共得到5项异常(同一测量场地出现多个相关异常按1项计算),简称为“巨幅异常”。结果表明:5项巨幅异常中有3项符合7级以上强震的预测指标,分别对应了1976年唐山7.8级地震、1996年丽江7.0级地震和2008年汶川8.0级地震。最后给出了结论建议,供跨断层形变资料分析、跨断层场地维护改造、强震预测及相关对策研究等工作参考。 展开更多
关键词 断层形变 强震预测 形变 前兆异常
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基于KOA-SVR和SLSTM-AM的水电机组劣化趋势预测
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作者 付波 吴子豪 +1 位作者 宋阿妮 李超顺 《中国农村水利水电》 北大核心 2026年第2期209-214,共6页
针对水电机组在长期运行过程中不易准确预测健康状态与劣化趋势的问题,研究提出一种基于开普勒优化算法(KOA)优化支持向量回归(SVR)的水电机组状态模型,并提出了结合注意力机制(AM)的堆栈长短期记忆网络(SLSTM)的劣化趋势预测方法。首先... 针对水电机组在长期运行过程中不易准确预测健康状态与劣化趋势的问题,研究提出一种基于开普勒优化算法(KOA)优化支持向量回归(SVR)的水电机组状态模型,并提出了结合注意力机制(AM)的堆栈长短期记忆网络(SLSTM)的劣化趋势预测方法。首先,利用KOA模拟行星运动的全局寻优特性,高效优化SVR的核函数参数与惩罚系数,显著提升状态模型的拟合精度与泛化能力;其次,通过注意力机制动态分配时间序列各步的权重,强化SLSTM对关键劣化特征的捕获能力,构建劣化趋势预测模型。仿真结果表明,方法在状态劣化预测方面具有较高的精度和可靠性,为水电机组的健康管理提供了一种有效的解决方案。 展开更多
关键词 KOA SVR SLSTM AM 劣化预测 水电机组
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巴曲酶相关严重低纤维蛋白原血症的危险因素分析及风险预测模型构建
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作者 蔡乐 赵雨晴 +3 位作者 崔佳珠 文笑 郭代红 朱曼 《中国药房》 北大核心 2026年第4期462-467,共6页
目的探讨巴曲酶相关严重低纤维蛋白原血症(HFIB)的临床特征及危险因素,并构建其风险预测模型。方法回顾性收集2020年1月1日至2024年12月31日某三甲医院第一医学中心使用巴曲酶的住院患者资料,并根据发生HFIB的严重程度分为非严重HFIB组... 目的探讨巴曲酶相关严重低纤维蛋白原血症(HFIB)的临床特征及危险因素,并构建其风险预测模型。方法回顾性收集2020年1月1日至2024年12月31日某三甲医院第一医学中心使用巴曲酶的住院患者资料,并根据发生HFIB的严重程度分为非严重HFIB组和严重HFIB组。采用单因素和多因素Logistic回归分析筛选巴曲酶相关严重HFIB的独立影响因素。采用R 4.5软件“rms”程序包绘制列线图;采用受试者工作特征曲线检验模型的预测性能;采用Bootstrap自助抽样法评估模型的校准度;采用Hosmer-Lemeshow检验评价模型的拟合优度。结果共纳入1472例患者,其中1445例发生HFIB,发生率为98.17%;895例为严重HFIB,发生率为60.80%。多因素Logistic回归分析结果显示,年龄增长、较高的首剂量/10 kg体重、使用维持剂量、合并使用糖皮质激素是巴曲酶相关严重HFIB的独立危险因素,较高的纤维蛋白原(FIB)基线值为其独立保护因素(P<0.05)。模型的受试者工作特征曲线下面积为0.760[95%置信区间为(0.735,0.785)];校准曲线的平均绝对误差为0.006;Hosmer-Lemeshow检验的P值为0.609。结论巴曲酶可快速、显著降低FIB,易引起严重HFIB;年龄增长、使用较高首剂量/10 kg体重、使用维持剂量以及合并使用糖皮质激素患者的巴曲酶相关严重HFIB的发生风险较高,而FIB基线值较高患者的巴曲酶相关严重HFIB的发生风险较低;基于上述因素建立的风险预测模型可用于预测巴曲酶相关严重HFIB的发生风险。 展开更多
关键词 巴曲酶 低纤维蛋白原血症 风险预测模型 列线图 危险因素
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上行相关性、下行相关性与收益率预测
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作者 郑振龙 杨玉晓 陈蓉 《数理统计与管理》 北大核心 2026年第1期147-160,共14页
投资者在股票市场进行分散投资时,仍然承担着股票间的相关性风险,研究相关性风险与预期收益率的关系,对投资组合的选择有重要的参考意义。本文首次把相关性风险分解为上行相关性和下行相关性,然后利用日内高频数据,分析了它们对未来不... 投资者在股票市场进行分散投资时,仍然承担着股票间的相关性风险,研究相关性风险与预期收益率的关系,对投资组合的选择有重要的参考意义。本文首次把相关性风险分解为上行相关性和下行相关性,然后利用日内高频数据,分析了它们对未来不同期限中国股票市场收益率的预测能力。实证结果发现:(1)相关性风险对股票市场未来不同期限收益率有负向预测力。(2)相关性对中长期整体市场收益率预测表现更佳,在对未来六个月和一年的沪深300样本内预测R^(2)超过了7%。(3)结合样本内和样本外的预测结果,与总的相关性和上行相关性相比,下行相关性对股票市场收益率的预测能力更稳健,尤其是样本外预测效果更优。为了进一步说明相关性稳健的预测能力,我们还考察了上证50,结果显示相关性对其仍保持着预测能力。相关性风险是投资者不可忽视的风险,特别是下行相关性风险。 展开更多
关键词 上行相关性 下行相关性 收益率预测
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一种基于时域融合Transformer的4D航迹预测方法
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作者 孔建国 马珂昕 +2 位作者 梁海军 张向伟 常瀚文 《电讯技术》 北大核心 2026年第1期21-29,共9页
针对传统4D航迹预测方法在数据单一和特征选择上的局限,提出了一种基于时域融合Transformer(Temporal Fusion Transformer,TFT)模型的4D航迹预测方法。引入下降率、时序分量等多元特征,并将数据按是否随时间变化及数值属性进行分类,以... 针对传统4D航迹预测方法在数据单一和特征选择上的局限,提出了一种基于时域融合Transformer(Temporal Fusion Transformer,TFT)模型的4D航迹预测方法。引入下降率、时序分量等多元特征,并将数据按是否随时间变化及数值属性进行分类,以体现飞行过程中不同阶段的差异;采用TFT模型有效捕捉各特征之间的隐式相关性,从而提高了预测精度;同时,结合分位数回归实现不确定性量化,提供了具有置信区间的航迹预测结果。实验表明,所提方法在真实数据上优于传统模型:与CNNLSTM模型和LSTM模型相比,平均距离误差分别减少了22.7%和50.9%,纵向、横向和垂直误差分别为305.01 m、177.91 m和25.23 m,验证了模型在解决航迹预测问题上的有效性,能够为管制精细化调控提供有效支持。 展开更多
关键词 空中交通管制 4D航迹预测 自动相关监视系统数据 时域融合Transformer 时间序列预测
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基于多模型障碍物轨迹融合预测的自动驾驶横纵向联合运动规划算法
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作者 刘本学 左富豪 +3 位作者 张红军 侯俊峰 吴涛 李霞 《现代制造工程》 北大核心 2026年第1期74-86,共13页
针对传统运动规划算法中交通参与者的轨迹预测不适用于复杂行驶场景且未能与后续运动规划有效结合,以实现障碍物位置信息充分利用的问题,提出了一种基于多模型障碍物轨迹融合预测的自动驾驶横纵向联合运动规划算法。首先,通过选择恒定... 针对传统运动规划算法中交通参与者的轨迹预测不适用于复杂行驶场景且未能与后续运动规划有效结合,以实现障碍物位置信息充分利用的问题,提出了一种基于多模型障碍物轨迹融合预测的自动驾驶横纵向联合运动规划算法。首先,通过选择恒定加速度(Constant Acceleration,CA)模型与恒定转弯率和速度(Constant Turn Rate and Velocity,CTRV)模型分别作为长期预测模型和短期预测模型,进行交通参与者的轨迹预测,通过基于卡尔曼滤波器的方法将预测结果融合处理;其次,预测时域内的时空占用情况被栅格化,借助融合预测得到的障碍物轨迹,执行动态规划算法,以获取新的可行边界;然后,通过建立线性时变(Linear Time-Varying,LTV)车辆动力学模型,并对自车全局轨迹进行参数化表示,构建了经典的模型预测控制问题,借助二次规划实现横纵向联合运动规划,以得到符合预期的自车无碰撞运动;最后,使用基于CarSim软件和Simulink软件的验证平台进行了联合仿真,搭建了三车道行驶场景,结果表明,基于多模型障碍物轨迹融合预测的自动驾驶横纵向联合运动规划算法可以有效整合障碍物车辆的轨迹预测以及自车的横纵向联合运动生成任务,其中融合预测算法在处理连续变道场景时表现出更为快速的响应和更小的预测误差,为研究自动驾驶车辆在动态障碍物环境下的运动规划问题提供了参考。 展开更多
关键词 自动驾驶车辆 轨迹融合预测 卡尔曼滤波器 动态规划 可行边界 车辆动力学 模型预测控制
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