Deep learning and fatigue life prediction remain focal research areas in rail vehicle engineering.This study addresses the vibration fatigue of wheelset lifting lug in Chengdu Metro Line 1 bogies,aiming to develop a f...Deep learning and fatigue life prediction remain focal research areas in rail vehicle engineering.This study addresses the vibration fatigue of wheelset lifting lug in Chengdu Metro Line 1 bogies,aiming to develop a fatigue life prediction method for critical bogie components using deep learning models and measured track load spectra.Extensive field tests on Chengdu Metro Line 1 were conducted to acquire acceleration and stress response data of the wheelset lifting lug,generating training samples for the neural network system.Component stress responses were calculated via time-domain track acceleration and validated against in-situ stress measurements.Results show that neural network-fitted dynamic stress values exhibit excellent consistency with measured data,with errors constrained within 5%.This study validates the proposed small-sample deep learning approach as an effective and accurate solution for fatigue life prediction of critical bogie components under operational load conditions.展开更多
Stand age plays a crucial role in forest biomass estimation and carbon cycle modeling.Assessing the uncertainty of stand age prediction models and identifying the key driving factors in the modeling process have becom...Stand age plays a crucial role in forest biomass estimation and carbon cycle modeling.Assessing the uncertainty of stand age prediction models and identifying the key driving factors in the modeling process have become major challenges in forestry research.In this study,we selected the Shaanxi-Gansu-Ningxia region of Northeast China as the research area and utilized multi-source datasets from the summer of 2019 to extract information on spectral,textural,climatic,water balance,and stand characteristics.By integrating the Random Forest(RF)model with Monte Carlo(MC)simulation,we constructed six regression models based on different combina-tions of features and evaluated the uncertainty of each model.Furthermore,we investigated the driving factors influencing stand age modeling by analyzing the effects of different types of features on age inversion.Model performance and accuracy were assessed using the root mean square error(RMSE),mean absolute error(MAE),and the coefficient of determination(R^(2)),while the relative root mean square error(rRMSE)was employed to quantify model uncertainty.The results indicate that the scenarios with more obvious improve-ment in accuracy and effective reduction in uncertainty were Scenario 3 with the inclusion of climate and water balance information(RMSE=25.54 yr,MAE=18.03 yr,R^(2)=0.51,rRMSE=19.17%)and Scenario 5 with the inclusion of stand characterization informa-tion(RMSE=18.47 yr,MAE=13.05 yr,R^(2)=0.74,rRMSE=16.99%).Scenario 6,incorporating all feature types,achieved the highest accuracy(RMSE=17.60 yr,MAE=12.06 yr,R^(2)=0.77,rRMSE=14.19%).In this study,elevation,minimum temperature,and diameter at breast height(DBH)emerged as the key drivers of stand-age modeling.The proposed method can be used to identify drivers and to quantify uncertainty in stand-age estimation,providing a useful reference for improving model accuracy and uncertainty assessment.展开更多
Photovoltaic (PV) modules, as essential components of solar power generation systems, significantly influence unitpower generation costs.The service life of these modules directly affects these costs. Over time, the p...Photovoltaic (PV) modules, as essential components of solar power generation systems, significantly influence unitpower generation costs.The service life of these modules directly affects these costs. Over time, the performanceof PV modules gradually declines due to internal degradation and external environmental factors.This cumulativedegradation impacts the overall reliability of photovoltaic power generation. This study addresses the complexdegradation process of PV modules by developing a two-stage Wiener process model. This approach accountsfor the distinct phases of degradation resulting from module aging and environmental influences. A powerdegradation model based on the two-stage Wiener process is constructed to describe individual differences inmodule degradation processes. To estimate the model parameters, a combination of the Expectation-Maximization(EM) algorithm and the Bayesian method is employed. Furthermore, the Schwarz Information Criterion (SIC) isutilized to identify critical change points in PV module degradation trajectories. To validate the universality andeffectiveness of the proposed method, a comparative analysis is conducted against other established life predictiontechniques for PV modules.展开更多
Accurate prediction of coal and gas outburst(CGO)hazards is paramount in gas disaster prevention and control.This paper endeavors to overcome the constraints posed by traditional prediction indexes when dealing with C...Accurate prediction of coal and gas outburst(CGO)hazards is paramount in gas disaster prevention and control.This paper endeavors to overcome the constraints posed by traditional prediction indexes when dealing with CGO incidents under low gas pressure conditions.In pursuit of this objective,we have studied and established a mechanical model of the working face under abnormal stress and the excitation energy conditions of CGO,and proposed a method for predicting the risk of CGO under abnormal stress.On site application verification shows that when a strong outburst hazard level prediction is issued,there is a high possibility of outburst disasters occurring.In one of the three locations where we predicted strong outburst hazards,a small outburst occurred,and the accuracy of the prediction was higher than the traditional drilling cuttings index S and drilling cuttings gas desorption index q.Finally,we discuss the mechanism of CGO under the action of stress anomalies.Based on the analysis of stress distribution changes and energy accumulation characteristics of coal under abnormal stress,this article believes that the increase in outburst risk caused by high stress abnormal gradient is mainly due to two reasons:(1)The high stress abnormal gradient leads to an increase in the plastic zone of the coal seam.After the working face advances,it indirectly leads to an increase in the gas expansion energy that can be released from the coal seam before reaching a new stress equilibrium.(2)Abnormal stress leads to increased peak stress of coal body in front of working face.When coal body in elastic area transforms to plastic area,its failure speed is accelerated,which induces accelerated gas desorption and aggravates the risk of outburst.展开更多
The mathematical method of ZTD(zenith tropospheric delay)spatial prediction is important for precise ZTD derivation and real-time precise point positioning(PPP)augmentation.This paper analyses the performance of the p...The mathematical method of ZTD(zenith tropospheric delay)spatial prediction is important for precise ZTD derivation and real-time precise point positioning(PPP)augmentation.This paper analyses the performance of the popular optimal function coefficient(OFC),sphere cap harmonic analysis(SCHA),kriging and inverse distance weighting(IDW)interpolation in ZTD spatial prediction and Beidou satellite navigation system(BDS)-PPP augmentation over China.For ZTD spatial prediction,the average time consumption of the OFC,kriging,and IDW methods is less than 0.1 s,which is significantly better than that of the SCHA method(63.157 s).The overall ZTD precision of the OFC is 3.44 cm,which outperforms those of the SCHA(9.65 cm),Kriging(10.6 cm),and IDW(11.8 cm)methods.We confirmed that the low performance of kriging and IDW is caused by their weakness in modelling ZTD variation in the vertical direction.To mitigate such deficiencies,an elevation normalization factor(ENF)is introduced into the kriging and IDW models(kriging-ENF and IDW-ENF).The overall ZTD spatial prediction accuracies of IDW-ENF and kriging-ENF are 2.80 cm and 2.01 cm,respectively,which are both superior to those of the OFC and the widely used empirical model GPT3(4.92 cm).For BDS-PPP enhancement,the ZTD provided by the kriging-ENF,IDW-ENF and OFC as prior constraints can effectively reduce the convergence time.Compared with unconstrained BDS-PPP,our proposed kriging-ENF outperforms IDW-ENF and OFC by reducing the horizontal and vertical convergence times by approximately 13.2%and 5.8%in Ningxia and 30.4%and 7.84%in Guangdong,respectively.These results indicate that kriging-ENF is a promising method for ZTD spatial prediction and BDS-PPP enhancement over China.展开更多
Wellbore instability is one of the significant challenges in the drilling engineering and during the development of carbonate reservoirs,especially with open-hole completion.The problems of wellbore instability such a...Wellbore instability is one of the significant challenges in the drilling engineering and during the development of carbonate reservoirs,especially with open-hole completion.The problems of wellbore instability such as downhole collapse and silt deposit in the fractured carbonate reservoir of Tarim Basin(Ordovician)are severe.Solid destabilization and production(SDP)was proposed to describe this engineering problem of carbonate reservoirs.To clarify the mechanism and mitigate potential borehole instability problems,we conducted particle size distribution(PSD)analysis,X-ray diffraction(XRD)analysis,triaxial compression tests,and micro-scale sand production tests based on data analysis.We found that the rock fragments and silt in the wellbore came from two sources:one from the wellbore collapse in the upper unplugged layers and the other from the production of sand particles carried by the fluid in the productive layers.Based on the experimental study,a novel method combining a geomechanical model and microscopic sand production model was proposed to predict wellbore instability and analyze its influencing factors.The critical condition and failure zone predicted by the prediction model fit well with the field observations.According to the prediction results,the management and prevention measures of wellbore instability in carbonate reservoirs were proposed.It is suggested to optimize the well track in new drilling wells while upgrading the production system in old wells.This study is of great guiding significance for the optimization of carbonate solid control and it improves the understanding of the sand production problems in carbonate reservoirs.展开更多
Accurate and efficient prediction of the distribution of surface loads on buildings subjected to explosive effects is crucial for rapidly calculating structural dynamic responses,establishing effective protective meas...Accurate and efficient prediction of the distribution of surface loads on buildings subjected to explosive effects is crucial for rapidly calculating structural dynamic responses,establishing effective protective measures,and designing civil defense engineering solutions.Current state-of-the-art methods face several issues:Experimental research is difficult and costly to implement,theoretical research is limited to simple geometries and lacks precision,and direct simulations require substantial computational resources.To address these challenges,this paper presents a data-driven method for predicting blast loads on building surfaces.This approach increases both the accuracy and computational efficiency of load predictions when the geometry of the building changes while the explosive yield remains constant,significantly improving its applicability in complex scenarios.This study introduces an innovative encoder-decoder graph neural network model named BlastGraphNet,which uses a message-passing mechanism to predict the overpressure and impulse load distributions on buildings with conventional and complex geometries during explosive events.The model also facilitates related downstream applications,such as damage mode identification and rapid assessment of virtual city explosions.The calculation results indicate that the prediction error of the model for conventional building tests is less than 2%,and its inference speed is 3-4 orders of magnitude faster than that of state-of-the-art numerical methods.In extreme test cases involving buildings with complex geometries and building clusters,the method achieved high accuracy and excellent generalizability.The strong adaptability and generalizability of BlastGraphNet confirm that this novel method enables precise real-time prediction of blast loads and provides a new paradigm for damage assessment in protective engineering.展开更多
Stock price prediction is a typical complex time series prediction problem characterized by dynamics,nonlinearity,and complexity.This paper introduces a generative adversarial network model that incorporates an attent...Stock price prediction is a typical complex time series prediction problem characterized by dynamics,nonlinearity,and complexity.This paper introduces a generative adversarial network model that incorporates an attention mechanism(GAN-LSTM-Attention)to improve the accuracy of stock price prediction.Firstly,the generator of this model combines the Long and Short-Term Memory Network(LSTM),the Attention Mechanism and,the Fully-Connected Layer,focusing on generating the predicted stock price.The discriminator combines the Convolutional Neural Network(CNN)and the Fully-Connected Layer to discriminate between real stock prices and generated stock prices.Secondly,to evaluate the practical application ability and generalization ability of the GAN-LSTM-Attention model,four representative stocks in the United States of America(USA)stock market,namely,Standard&Poor’s 500 Index stock,Apple Incorporatedstock,AdvancedMicroDevices Incorporatedstock,and Google Incorporated stock were selected for prediction experiments,and the prediction performance was comprehensively evaluated by using the three evaluation metrics,namely,mean absolute error(MAE),root mean square error(RMSE),and coefficient of determination(R2).Finally,the specific effects of the attention mechanism,convolutional layer,and fully-connected layer on the prediction performance of the model are systematically analyzed through ablation study.The results of experiment show that the GAN-LSTM-Attention model exhibits excellent performance and robustness in stock price prediction.展开更多
Landslide susceptibility prediction(LSP)is significantly affected by the uncertainty issue of landslide related conditioning factor selection.However,most of literature only performs comparative studies on a certain c...Landslide susceptibility prediction(LSP)is significantly affected by the uncertainty issue of landslide related conditioning factor selection.However,most of literature only performs comparative studies on a certain conditioning factor selection method rather than systematically study this uncertainty issue.Targeted,this study aims to systematically explore the influence rules of various commonly used conditioning factor selection methods on LSP,and on this basis to innovatively propose a principle with universal application for optimal selection of conditioning factors.An'yuan County in southern China is taken as example considering 431 landslides and 29 types of conditioning factors.Five commonly used factor selection methods,namely,the correlation analysis(CA),linear regression(LR),principal component analysis(PCA),rough set(RS)and artificial neural network(ANN),are applied to select the optimal factor combinations from the original 29 conditioning factors.The factor selection results are then used as inputs of four types of common machine learning models to construct 20 types of combined models,such as CA-multilayer perceptron,CA-random forest.Additionally,multifactor-based multilayer perceptron random forest models that selecting conditioning factors based on the proposed principle of“accurate data,rich types,clear significance,feasible operation and avoiding duplication”are constructed for comparisons.Finally,the LSP uncertainties are evaluated by the accuracy,susceptibility index distribution,etc.Results show that:(1)multifactor-based models have generally higher LSP performance and lower uncertainties than those of factors selection-based models;(2)Influence degree of different machine learning on LSP accuracy is greater than that of different factor selection methods.Conclusively,the above commonly used conditioning factor selection methods are not ideal for improving LSP performance and may complicate the LSP processes.In contrast,a satisfied combination of conditioning factors can be constructed according to the proposed principle.展开更多
Negative logarithm of the acid dissociation constant(pK_(a))significantly influences the absorption,dis-tribution,metabolism,excretion,and toxicity(ADMET)properties of molecules and is a crucial indicator in drug rese...Negative logarithm of the acid dissociation constant(pK_(a))significantly influences the absorption,dis-tribution,metabolism,excretion,and toxicity(ADMET)properties of molecules and is a crucial indicator in drug research.Given the rapid and accurate characteristics of computational methods,their role in predicting drug properties is increasingly important.Although many pK_(a) prediction models currently exist,they often focus on enhancing model precision while neglecting interpretability.In this study,we present GraFpKa,a pK_(a) prediction model using graph neural networks(GNNs)and molecular finger-prints.The results show that our acidic and basic models achieved mean absolute errors(MAEs)of 0.621 and 0.402,respectively,on the test set,demonstrating good predictive performance.Notably,to improve interpretability,GraFpKa also incorporates Integrated Gradients(IGs),providing a clearer visual description of the atoms significantly affecting the pK_(a) values.The high reliability and interpretability of GraFpKa ensure accurate pKa predictions while also facilitating a deeper understanding of the relation-ship between molecular structure and pK_(a) values,making it a valuable tool in the field of pK_(a) prediction.展开更多
RNAs have important biological functions and the functions of RNAs are generally coupled to their structures, especiallytheir secondary structures. In this work, we have made a comprehensive evaluation of the performa...RNAs have important biological functions and the functions of RNAs are generally coupled to their structures, especiallytheir secondary structures. In this work, we have made a comprehensive evaluation of the performances of existingtop RNA secondary structure prediction methods, including five deep-learning (DL) based methods and five minimum freeenergy (MFE) based methods. First, we made a brief overview of these RNA secondary structure prediction methods.Afterwards, we built two rigorous test datasets consisting of RNAs with non-redundant sequences and comprehensivelyexamined the performances of the RNA secondary structure prediction methods through classifying the RNAs into differentlength ranges and different types. Our examination shows that the DL-based methods generally perform better thanthe MFE-based methods for RNAs with long lengths and complex structures, while the MFE-based methods can achievegood performance for small RNAs and some specialized MFE-based methods can achieve good prediction accuracy forpseudoknots. Finally, we provided some insights and perspectives in modeling RNA secondary structures.展开更多
Unmanned Aerial Vehicle(UAV) trajectory prediction is an important research topic in the field of UAV air combat. In order to address the problem of single-feature extraction scale and scene adaptability in UAV air co...Unmanned Aerial Vehicle(UAV) trajectory prediction is an important research topic in the field of UAV air combat. In order to address the problem of single-feature extraction scale and scene adaptability in UAV air combat trajectory prediction algorithms, this paper proposes an innovative UAV trajectory prediction method QCNet-3D, which can predict the future trajectory of the target UAV and provide the corresponding possibility. Firstly, the UAV trajectory prediction is modeled based on the mixture of Laplace distributions, and the UAV's kinetic equations are employed to construct the UAV trajectory prediction dataset(UAVTP dataset), ensuring high reliability. Secondly, two improvement methods are proposed on the basis of QCNet: multi-scale Fourier mapping and three-dimensional adaptation. The ablation study shows that the improvement methods have reduced the minimum average displacement error, minimum final displacement error, and missing rate by 55.4%, 54.3%, and 68.1% respectively. Finally, QCNet-3D is proposed based on the two improvement methods, and the simulation experiment confirm the proposed algorithm's capability to predict both simple and complex UAV maneuvers, offering the possibility for each predicted trajectory under various prediction future steps and output modes.展开更多
Software defect prediction(SDP)aims to find a reliable method to predict defects in specific software projects and help software engineers allocate limited resources to release high-quality software products.Software ...Software defect prediction(SDP)aims to find a reliable method to predict defects in specific software projects and help software engineers allocate limited resources to release high-quality software products.Software defect prediction can be effectively performed using traditional features,but there are some redundant or irrelevant features in them(the presence or absence of this feature has little effect on the prediction results).These problems can be solved using feature selection.However,existing feature selection methods have shortcomings such as insignificant dimensionality reduction effect and low classification accuracy of the selected optimal feature subset.In order to reduce the impact of these shortcomings,this paper proposes a new feature selection method Cubic TraverseMa Beluga whale optimization algorithm(CTMBWO)based on the improved Beluga whale optimization algorithm(BWO).The goal of this study is to determine how well the CTMBWO can extract the features that are most important for correctly predicting software defects,improve the accuracy of fault prediction,reduce the number of the selected feature and mitigate the risk of overfitting,thereby achieving more efficient resource utilization and better distribution of test workload.The CTMBWO comprises three main stages:preprocessing the dataset,selecting relevant features,and evaluating the classification performance of the model.The novel feature selection method can effectively improve the performance of SDP.This study performs experiments on two software defect datasets(PROMISE,NASA)and shows the method’s classification performance using four detailed evaluation metrics,Accuracy,F1-score,MCC,AUC and Recall.The results indicate that the approach presented in this paper achieves outstanding classification performance on both datasets and has significant improvement over the baseline models.展开更多
To tackle the difficulties of the point prediction in quantifying the reliability of landslide displacement prediction,a data-driven combination-interval prediction method(CIPM)based on copula and variational-mode-dec...To tackle the difficulties of the point prediction in quantifying the reliability of landslide displacement prediction,a data-driven combination-interval prediction method(CIPM)based on copula and variational-mode-decomposition associated with kernel-based-extreme-learningmachine optimized by the whale optimization algorithm(VMD-WOA-KELM)is proposed in this paper.Firstly,the displacement is decomposed by VMD to three IMF components and a residual component of different fluctuation characteristics.The key impact factors of each IMF component are selected according to Copula model,and the corresponding WOA-KELM is established to conduct point prediction.Subsequently,the parametric method(PM)and non-parametric method(NPM)are used to estimate the prediction error probability density distribution(PDF)of each component,whose prediction interval(PI)under the 95%confidence level is also obtained.By means of the differential evolution algorithm(DE),a weighted combination model based on the PIs is built to construct the combination-interval(CI).Finally,the CIs of each component are added to generate the total PI.A comparative case study shows that the CIPM performs better in constructing landslide displacement PI with high performance.展开更多
Ribonucleic Acid(RNA)contact prediction holds great significance for modeling RNA 3D structures and further understanding RNA biological functions.The rapid growth of RNA sequencing data has driven the development of ...Ribonucleic Acid(RNA)contact prediction holds great significance for modeling RNA 3D structures and further understanding RNA biological functions.The rapid growth of RNA sequencing data has driven the development of diverse computational methods for RNA contact prediction,and a benchmark evaluation of these methods remains essential.In this work,we first classified RNA contact prediction methods into statistical inference-based and neural networkbased ones.We then evaluated eight state-of-the-art methods on three test sets:a sequencediverse set,a structurally non-redundant set and a CASP RNA targets set.Our evaluation shows that for identifying non-local and long-range contacts,neural network-based methods outperform statistical inference-based ones,with SPOT-RNA-2D achieving the best performance,followed by CoCoNet and RNAcontact.However,for identifying the long-range tertiary contacts,which are vital for stabilizing RNA tertiary structure,statistical inference-based methods exhibit superior performance with GREMLIN emerging as the top performer.This work provides a comprehensive benchmarking of RNA contact prediction methods,highlighting their strengths and limitations to guide further methodological improvements and applications in RNA structure modeling.展开更多
A typical Whipple shield consists of double-layered plates with a certain gap.The space debris impacts the outer plate and is broken into a debris cloud(shattered,molten,vaporized)with dispersed energy and momentum,wh...A typical Whipple shield consists of double-layered plates with a certain gap.The space debris impacts the outer plate and is broken into a debris cloud(shattered,molten,vaporized)with dispersed energy and momentum,which reduces the risk of penetrating the bulkhead.In the realm of hypervelocity impact,strain rate(>10^(5)s^(-1))effects are negligible,and fluid dynamics is employed to describe the impact process.Efficient numerical tools for precisely predicting the damage degree can greatly accelerate the design and optimization of advanced protective structures.Current hypervelocity impact research primarily focuses on the interaction between projectile and front plate and the movement of debris cloud.However,the damage mechanism of debris cloud impacts on rear plates-the critical threat component-remains underexplored owing to complex multi-physics processes and prohibitive computational costs.Existing approaches,ranging from semi-empirical equations to a machine learningbased ballistic limit prediction method,are constrained to binary penetration classification.Alternatively,the uneven data from experiments and simulations caused these methods to be ineffective when the projectile has irregular shapes and complicate flight attitude.Therefore,it is urgent to develop a new damage prediction method for predicting the rear plate damage,which can help to gain a deeper understanding of the damage mechanism.In this study,a machine learning(ML)method is developed to predict the damage distribution in the rear plate.Based on the unit velocity space,the discretized information of debris cloud and rear plate damage from rare simulation cases is used as input data for training the ML models,while the generalization ability for damage distribution prediction is tested by other simulation cases with different attack angles.The results demonstrate that the training and prediction accuracies using the Random Forest(RF)algorithm significantly surpass those using Artificial Neural Networks(ANNs)and Support Vector Machine(SVM).The RF-based model effectively identifies damage features in sparsely distributed debris cloud and cumulative effect.This study establishes an expandable new dataset that accommodates additional parameters to improve the prediction accuracy.Results demonstrate the model's ability to overcome data imbalance limitations through debris cloud features,enabling rapid and accurate rear plate damage prediction across wider scenarios with minimal data requirements.展开更多
The Stackelberg prediction game(SPG)is a bilevel optimization frame-work for modeling strategic interactions between a learner and a follower.Existing meth-ods for solving this problem with general loss functions are ...The Stackelberg prediction game(SPG)is a bilevel optimization frame-work for modeling strategic interactions between a learner and a follower.Existing meth-ods for solving this problem with general loss functions are computationally expensive and scarce.We propose a novel hyper-gradient type method with a warm-start strategy to address this challenge.Particularly,we first use a Taylor expansion-based approach to obtain a good initial point.Then we apply a hyper-gradient descent method with an ex-plicit approximate hyper-gradient.We establish the convergence results of our algorithm theoretically.Furthermore,when the follower employs the least squares loss function,our method is shown to reach an e-stationary point by solving quadratic subproblems.Numerical experiments show our algorithms are empirically orders of magnitude faster than the state-of-the-art.展开更多
Rail corrugation, as a prevalent type of rail damage in heavy railways, induces diseases in the track structure. In order to ensure the safe operation of trains, an improved whale optimization algorithm is proposed to...Rail corrugation, as a prevalent type of rail damage in heavy railways, induces diseases in the track structure. In order to ensure the safe operation of trains, an improved whale optimization algorithm is proposed to optimize the rail corrugation evolution trend prediction model of the least squares support vector machine (IPCA-ELWOA-LSSVM). The elite reverse learning combined with the Lévy flight strategy is introduced to improve the whale optimization algorithm. The improved WOA (ELWOA) algorithm is used to continuously optimize the kernel parameter σ and the normalization parameter γ in the LSSVM model. Finally, the improved prediction model is validated using data from a domestic heavy-duty railway experimental line database and compared with the prediction model before optimization and the other commonly used models. The experimental results show that the ELWOA-LSSVM prediction model has the highest accuracy, which proves that the proposed method has high accuracy in predicting the rail corrugation evolution trend.展开更多
The Canglangpu Formation in the JT1 well area of the Sichuan Basin exhibits strong lateral heterogeneity and complex overpressure mechanisms, leading to ambiguous pore pressure distribution characteristics. Convention...The Canglangpu Formation in the JT1 well area of the Sichuan Basin exhibits strong lateral heterogeneity and complex overpressure mechanisms, leading to ambiguous pore pressure distribution characteristics. Conventional prediction methods, such as the Equivalent Depth Method, are either inapplicable or yield unsatisfactory results (e.g., Fillippone’s method), contributing to frequent drilling incidents like gas kick, overfl ow, and lost circulation, which hinder the safe and effi cient exploration of natural gas. To address these challenges, this paper integrates lithology, physical properties, and overpressure mechanisms of the Canglangpu Formation. From a petrophysical perspective, a pore pressure prediction model independent of lithology and overpressure mechanisms was developed by combining the poroelasticity theory, linear elastic Hooke’s Law, and Biot’s eff ective stress theory, with an analysis of the relationship between carbonate rock strain, external stress, and internal pore pressure. Unlike conventional methods, the model does not rely on the establishment of a normal compaction trend line. Pre-stack seismic inversion was applied to achieve 3D pore pressure prediction for the formation. Results indicate high accuracy, with a relative error of less than 5% compared to measured data, and strong consistency with actual drilling events. The proposed method provides robust technical support for pore pressure prediction in carbonate formations and drilling geological design.展开更多
Understanding the wind power potential of a site is essential for designing an optimal wind power conditioning system. The Weibull distribution and wind speed extrapolation methods are powerful mathematical tools for ...Understanding the wind power potential of a site is essential for designing an optimal wind power conditioning system. The Weibull distribution and wind speed extrapolation methods are powerful mathematical tools for efficiently predicting the frequency distribution of wind speeds at a site. Hourly wind speed and direction data were collected from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) website for the period 2013 to 2023. MATLAB software was used to calculate the distribution parameters using the graphical method and to plot the corresponding curves, while WRPLOTView software was used to construct the wind rose. The average wind speed obtained is 3.33 m/s and can reach up to 5.71 m/s at a height of 100 meters. The wind energy is estimated to be 1315.30 kWh/m2 at a height of 100 meters. The wind rose indicates the prevailing winds (ranging from 3.60 m/s to 5.70 m/s) in the northeast-east direction.展开更多
基金supported by the CRRC Original Technology TenYear Cultivation Program(Grant No.2022CYY007)。
文摘Deep learning and fatigue life prediction remain focal research areas in rail vehicle engineering.This study addresses the vibration fatigue of wheelset lifting lug in Chengdu Metro Line 1 bogies,aiming to develop a fatigue life prediction method for critical bogie components using deep learning models and measured track load spectra.Extensive field tests on Chengdu Metro Line 1 were conducted to acquire acceleration and stress response data of the wheelset lifting lug,generating training samples for the neural network system.Component stress responses were calculated via time-domain track acceleration and validated against in-situ stress measurements.Results show that neural network-fitted dynamic stress values exhibit excellent consistency with measured data,with errors constrained within 5%.This study validates the proposed small-sample deep learning approach as an effective and accurate solution for fatigue life prediction of critical bogie components under operational load conditions.
基金Under the auspices of the Natural Science Foundation of China(No.32371875,32001249)。
文摘Stand age plays a crucial role in forest biomass estimation and carbon cycle modeling.Assessing the uncertainty of stand age prediction models and identifying the key driving factors in the modeling process have become major challenges in forestry research.In this study,we selected the Shaanxi-Gansu-Ningxia region of Northeast China as the research area and utilized multi-source datasets from the summer of 2019 to extract information on spectral,textural,climatic,water balance,and stand characteristics.By integrating the Random Forest(RF)model with Monte Carlo(MC)simulation,we constructed six regression models based on different combina-tions of features and evaluated the uncertainty of each model.Furthermore,we investigated the driving factors influencing stand age modeling by analyzing the effects of different types of features on age inversion.Model performance and accuracy were assessed using the root mean square error(RMSE),mean absolute error(MAE),and the coefficient of determination(R^(2)),while the relative root mean square error(rRMSE)was employed to quantify model uncertainty.The results indicate that the scenarios with more obvious improve-ment in accuracy and effective reduction in uncertainty were Scenario 3 with the inclusion of climate and water balance information(RMSE=25.54 yr,MAE=18.03 yr,R^(2)=0.51,rRMSE=19.17%)and Scenario 5 with the inclusion of stand characterization informa-tion(RMSE=18.47 yr,MAE=13.05 yr,R^(2)=0.74,rRMSE=16.99%).Scenario 6,incorporating all feature types,achieved the highest accuracy(RMSE=17.60 yr,MAE=12.06 yr,R^(2)=0.77,rRMSE=14.19%).In this study,elevation,minimum temperature,and diameter at breast height(DBH)emerged as the key drivers of stand-age modeling.The proposed method can be used to identify drivers and to quantify uncertainty in stand-age estimation,providing a useful reference for improving model accuracy and uncertainty assessment.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(51767017)the Basic Research Innovation Group Project of Gansu Province(18JR3RA133)the Industrial Support and Guidance Project of Universities in Gansu Province(2022CYZC-22).
文摘Photovoltaic (PV) modules, as essential components of solar power generation systems, significantly influence unitpower generation costs.The service life of these modules directly affects these costs. Over time, the performanceof PV modules gradually declines due to internal degradation and external environmental factors.This cumulativedegradation impacts the overall reliability of photovoltaic power generation. This study addresses the complexdegradation process of PV modules by developing a two-stage Wiener process model. This approach accountsfor the distinct phases of degradation resulting from module aging and environmental influences. A powerdegradation model based on the two-stage Wiener process is constructed to describe individual differences inmodule degradation processes. To estimate the model parameters, a combination of the Expectation-Maximization(EM) algorithm and the Bayesian method is employed. Furthermore, the Schwarz Information Criterion (SIC) isutilized to identify critical change points in PV module degradation trajectories. To validate the universality andeffectiveness of the proposed method, a comparative analysis is conducted against other established life predictiontechniques for PV modules.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(52174162)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(FRF-TP-20-002A3).
文摘Accurate prediction of coal and gas outburst(CGO)hazards is paramount in gas disaster prevention and control.This paper endeavors to overcome the constraints posed by traditional prediction indexes when dealing with CGO incidents under low gas pressure conditions.In pursuit of this objective,we have studied and established a mechanical model of the working face under abnormal stress and the excitation energy conditions of CGO,and proposed a method for predicting the risk of CGO under abnormal stress.On site application verification shows that when a strong outburst hazard level prediction is issued,there is a high possibility of outburst disasters occurring.In one of the three locations where we predicted strong outburst hazards,a small outburst occurred,and the accuracy of the prediction was higher than the traditional drilling cuttings index S and drilling cuttings gas desorption index q.Finally,we discuss the mechanism of CGO under the action of stress anomalies.Based on the analysis of stress distribution changes and energy accumulation characteristics of coal under abnormal stress,this article believes that the increase in outburst risk caused by high stress abnormal gradient is mainly due to two reasons:(1)The high stress abnormal gradient leads to an increase in the plastic zone of the coal seam.After the working face advances,it indirectly leads to an increase in the gas expansion energy that can be released from the coal seam before reaching a new stress equilibrium.(2)Abnormal stress leads to increased peak stress of coal body in front of working face.When coal body in elastic area transforms to plastic area,its failure speed is accelerated,which induces accelerated gas desorption and aggravates the risk of outburst.
基金co-supported by the National Nature Science Foundation of China(No.12303071)the Shanghai Science and Technology Plan Project,China(No.23YF1455500)+1 种基金the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(No.2023M743653)Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of China through the High Precision Timing Service Project(No.TC220A04A-80)。
文摘The mathematical method of ZTD(zenith tropospheric delay)spatial prediction is important for precise ZTD derivation and real-time precise point positioning(PPP)augmentation.This paper analyses the performance of the popular optimal function coefficient(OFC),sphere cap harmonic analysis(SCHA),kriging and inverse distance weighting(IDW)interpolation in ZTD spatial prediction and Beidou satellite navigation system(BDS)-PPP augmentation over China.For ZTD spatial prediction,the average time consumption of the OFC,kriging,and IDW methods is less than 0.1 s,which is significantly better than that of the SCHA method(63.157 s).The overall ZTD precision of the OFC is 3.44 cm,which outperforms those of the SCHA(9.65 cm),Kriging(10.6 cm),and IDW(11.8 cm)methods.We confirmed that the low performance of kriging and IDW is caused by their weakness in modelling ZTD variation in the vertical direction.To mitigate such deficiencies,an elevation normalization factor(ENF)is introduced into the kriging and IDW models(kriging-ENF and IDW-ENF).The overall ZTD spatial prediction accuracies of IDW-ENF and kriging-ENF are 2.80 cm and 2.01 cm,respectively,which are both superior to those of the OFC and the widely used empirical model GPT3(4.92 cm).For BDS-PPP enhancement,the ZTD provided by the kriging-ENF,IDW-ENF and OFC as prior constraints can effectively reduce the convergence time.Compared with unconstrained BDS-PPP,our proposed kriging-ENF outperforms IDW-ENF and OFC by reducing the horizontal and vertical convergence times by approximately 13.2%and 5.8%in Ningxia and 30.4%and 7.84%in Guangdong,respectively.These results indicate that kriging-ENF is a promising method for ZTD spatial prediction and BDS-PPP enhancement over China.
基金financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.52074331).
文摘Wellbore instability is one of the significant challenges in the drilling engineering and during the development of carbonate reservoirs,especially with open-hole completion.The problems of wellbore instability such as downhole collapse and silt deposit in the fractured carbonate reservoir of Tarim Basin(Ordovician)are severe.Solid destabilization and production(SDP)was proposed to describe this engineering problem of carbonate reservoirs.To clarify the mechanism and mitigate potential borehole instability problems,we conducted particle size distribution(PSD)analysis,X-ray diffraction(XRD)analysis,triaxial compression tests,and micro-scale sand production tests based on data analysis.We found that the rock fragments and silt in the wellbore came from two sources:one from the wellbore collapse in the upper unplugged layers and the other from the production of sand particles carried by the fluid in the productive layers.Based on the experimental study,a novel method combining a geomechanical model and microscopic sand production model was proposed to predict wellbore instability and analyze its influencing factors.The critical condition and failure zone predicted by the prediction model fit well with the field observations.According to the prediction results,the management and prevention measures of wellbore instability in carbonate reservoirs were proposed.It is suggested to optimize the well track in new drilling wells while upgrading the production system in old wells.This study is of great guiding significance for the optimization of carbonate solid control and it improves the understanding of the sand production problems in carbonate reservoirs.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Founion of China(U2241285).
文摘Accurate and efficient prediction of the distribution of surface loads on buildings subjected to explosive effects is crucial for rapidly calculating structural dynamic responses,establishing effective protective measures,and designing civil defense engineering solutions.Current state-of-the-art methods face several issues:Experimental research is difficult and costly to implement,theoretical research is limited to simple geometries and lacks precision,and direct simulations require substantial computational resources.To address these challenges,this paper presents a data-driven method for predicting blast loads on building surfaces.This approach increases both the accuracy and computational efficiency of load predictions when the geometry of the building changes while the explosive yield remains constant,significantly improving its applicability in complex scenarios.This study introduces an innovative encoder-decoder graph neural network model named BlastGraphNet,which uses a message-passing mechanism to predict the overpressure and impulse load distributions on buildings with conventional and complex geometries during explosive events.The model also facilitates related downstream applications,such as damage mode identification and rapid assessment of virtual city explosions.The calculation results indicate that the prediction error of the model for conventional building tests is less than 2%,and its inference speed is 3-4 orders of magnitude faster than that of state-of-the-art numerical methods.In extreme test cases involving buildings with complex geometries and building clusters,the method achieved high accuracy and excellent generalizability.The strong adaptability and generalizability of BlastGraphNet confirm that this novel method enables precise real-time prediction of blast loads and provides a new paradigm for damage assessment in protective engineering.
基金funded by the project supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Heilongjiang Provincial(Grant Number LH2023F033)the Science and Technology Innovation Talent Project of Harbin(Grant Number 2022CXRCCG006).
文摘Stock price prediction is a typical complex time series prediction problem characterized by dynamics,nonlinearity,and complexity.This paper introduces a generative adversarial network model that incorporates an attention mechanism(GAN-LSTM-Attention)to improve the accuracy of stock price prediction.Firstly,the generator of this model combines the Long and Short-Term Memory Network(LSTM),the Attention Mechanism and,the Fully-Connected Layer,focusing on generating the predicted stock price.The discriminator combines the Convolutional Neural Network(CNN)and the Fully-Connected Layer to discriminate between real stock prices and generated stock prices.Secondly,to evaluate the practical application ability and generalization ability of the GAN-LSTM-Attention model,four representative stocks in the United States of America(USA)stock market,namely,Standard&Poor’s 500 Index stock,Apple Incorporatedstock,AdvancedMicroDevices Incorporatedstock,and Google Incorporated stock were selected for prediction experiments,and the prediction performance was comprehensively evaluated by using the three evaluation metrics,namely,mean absolute error(MAE),root mean square error(RMSE),and coefficient of determination(R2).Finally,the specific effects of the attention mechanism,convolutional layer,and fully-connected layer on the prediction performance of the model are systematically analyzed through ablation study.The results of experiment show that the GAN-LSTM-Attention model exhibits excellent performance and robustness in stock price prediction.
基金funded by the Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42377164 and 41972280)the Badong National Observation and Research Station of Geohazards(Grant No.BNORSG-202305).
文摘Landslide susceptibility prediction(LSP)is significantly affected by the uncertainty issue of landslide related conditioning factor selection.However,most of literature only performs comparative studies on a certain conditioning factor selection method rather than systematically study this uncertainty issue.Targeted,this study aims to systematically explore the influence rules of various commonly used conditioning factor selection methods on LSP,and on this basis to innovatively propose a principle with universal application for optimal selection of conditioning factors.An'yuan County in southern China is taken as example considering 431 landslides and 29 types of conditioning factors.Five commonly used factor selection methods,namely,the correlation analysis(CA),linear regression(LR),principal component analysis(PCA),rough set(RS)and artificial neural network(ANN),are applied to select the optimal factor combinations from the original 29 conditioning factors.The factor selection results are then used as inputs of four types of common machine learning models to construct 20 types of combined models,such as CA-multilayer perceptron,CA-random forest.Additionally,multifactor-based multilayer perceptron random forest models that selecting conditioning factors based on the proposed principle of“accurate data,rich types,clear significance,feasible operation and avoiding duplication”are constructed for comparisons.Finally,the LSP uncertainties are evaluated by the accuracy,susceptibility index distribution,etc.Results show that:(1)multifactor-based models have generally higher LSP performance and lower uncertainties than those of factors selection-based models;(2)Influence degree of different machine learning on LSP accuracy is greater than that of different factor selection methods.Conclusively,the above commonly used conditioning factor selection methods are not ideal for improving LSP performance and may complicate the LSP processes.In contrast,a satisfied combination of conditioning factors can be constructed according to the proposed principle.
基金upported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.:2023YFF1204904)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.:U23A20530 and 82173746)Shanghai Frontiers Science Center of Optogenetic Techniques for Cell Metabolism(Shanghai Municipal Education Commission,China).
文摘Negative logarithm of the acid dissociation constant(pK_(a))significantly influences the absorption,dis-tribution,metabolism,excretion,and toxicity(ADMET)properties of molecules and is a crucial indicator in drug research.Given the rapid and accurate characteristics of computational methods,their role in predicting drug properties is increasingly important.Although many pK_(a) prediction models currently exist,they often focus on enhancing model precision while neglecting interpretability.In this study,we present GraFpKa,a pK_(a) prediction model using graph neural networks(GNNs)and molecular finger-prints.The results show that our acidic and basic models achieved mean absolute errors(MAEs)of 0.621 and 0.402,respectively,on the test set,demonstrating good predictive performance.Notably,to improve interpretability,GraFpKa also incorporates Integrated Gradients(IGs),providing a clearer visual description of the atoms significantly affecting the pK_(a) values.The high reliability and interpretability of GraFpKa ensure accurate pKa predictions while also facilitating a deeper understanding of the relation-ship between molecular structure and pK_(a) values,making it a valuable tool in the field of pK_(a) prediction.
基金supported by grants from the National Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.12375038 and 12075171 to ZJT,and 12205223 to YLT).
文摘RNAs have important biological functions and the functions of RNAs are generally coupled to their structures, especiallytheir secondary structures. In this work, we have made a comprehensive evaluation of the performances of existingtop RNA secondary structure prediction methods, including five deep-learning (DL) based methods and five minimum freeenergy (MFE) based methods. First, we made a brief overview of these RNA secondary structure prediction methods.Afterwards, we built two rigorous test datasets consisting of RNAs with non-redundant sequences and comprehensivelyexamined the performances of the RNA secondary structure prediction methods through classifying the RNAs into differentlength ranges and different types. Our examination shows that the DL-based methods generally perform better thanthe MFE-based methods for RNAs with long lengths and complex structures, while the MFE-based methods can achievegood performance for small RNAs and some specialized MFE-based methods can achieve good prediction accuracy forpseudoknots. Finally, we provided some insights and perspectives in modeling RNA secondary structures.
基金National Natural Science Foundation (NSF) of China (No.61976014)the Aeronautical Science Foundation of China (2022Z071051001)。
文摘Unmanned Aerial Vehicle(UAV) trajectory prediction is an important research topic in the field of UAV air combat. In order to address the problem of single-feature extraction scale and scene adaptability in UAV air combat trajectory prediction algorithms, this paper proposes an innovative UAV trajectory prediction method QCNet-3D, which can predict the future trajectory of the target UAV and provide the corresponding possibility. Firstly, the UAV trajectory prediction is modeled based on the mixture of Laplace distributions, and the UAV's kinetic equations are employed to construct the UAV trajectory prediction dataset(UAVTP dataset), ensuring high reliability. Secondly, two improvement methods are proposed on the basis of QCNet: multi-scale Fourier mapping and three-dimensional adaptation. The ablation study shows that the improvement methods have reduced the minimum average displacement error, minimum final displacement error, and missing rate by 55.4%, 54.3%, and 68.1% respectively. Finally, QCNet-3D is proposed based on the two improvement methods, and the simulation experiment confirm the proposed algorithm's capability to predict both simple and complex UAV maneuvers, offering the possibility for each predicted trajectory under various prediction future steps and output modes.
文摘Software defect prediction(SDP)aims to find a reliable method to predict defects in specific software projects and help software engineers allocate limited resources to release high-quality software products.Software defect prediction can be effectively performed using traditional features,but there are some redundant or irrelevant features in them(the presence or absence of this feature has little effect on the prediction results).These problems can be solved using feature selection.However,existing feature selection methods have shortcomings such as insignificant dimensionality reduction effect and low classification accuracy of the selected optimal feature subset.In order to reduce the impact of these shortcomings,this paper proposes a new feature selection method Cubic TraverseMa Beluga whale optimization algorithm(CTMBWO)based on the improved Beluga whale optimization algorithm(BWO).The goal of this study is to determine how well the CTMBWO can extract the features that are most important for correctly predicting software defects,improve the accuracy of fault prediction,reduce the number of the selected feature and mitigate the risk of overfitting,thereby achieving more efficient resource utilization and better distribution of test workload.The CTMBWO comprises three main stages:preprocessing the dataset,selecting relevant features,and evaluating the classification performance of the model.The novel feature selection method can effectively improve the performance of SDP.This study performs experiments on two software defect datasets(PROMISE,NASA)and shows the method’s classification performance using four detailed evaluation metrics,Accuracy,F1-score,MCC,AUC and Recall.The results indicate that the approach presented in this paper achieves outstanding classification performance on both datasets and has significant improvement over the baseline models.
基金financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.42277149,41502299,41372306)the Research Planning of Sichuan Education Department,China(No.16ZB0105)+3 种基金the State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection Independent Research Project(Nos.SKLGP2016Z007,SKLGP2018Z017,SKLGP2020Z009)Chengdu University of Technology Young and Middle Aged Backbone Program(No.KYGG201720)Sichuan Provincial Science and Technology Department Program(No.19YYJC2087)China Scholarship Council。
文摘To tackle the difficulties of the point prediction in quantifying the reliability of landslide displacement prediction,a data-driven combination-interval prediction method(CIPM)based on copula and variational-mode-decomposition associated with kernel-based-extreme-learningmachine optimized by the whale optimization algorithm(VMD-WOA-KELM)is proposed in this paper.Firstly,the displacement is decomposed by VMD to three IMF components and a residual component of different fluctuation characteristics.The key impact factors of each IMF component are selected according to Copula model,and the corresponding WOA-KELM is established to conduct point prediction.Subsequently,the parametric method(PM)and non-parametric method(NPM)are used to estimate the prediction error probability density distribution(PDF)of each component,whose prediction interval(PI)under the 95%confidence level is also obtained.By means of the differential evolution algorithm(DE),a weighted combination model based on the PIs is built to construct the combination-interval(CI).Finally,the CIs of each component are added to generate the total PI.A comparative case study shows that the CIPM performs better in constructing landslide displacement PI with high performance.
基金supported by grants from the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.12205223 to YLT,Grant No.12375038 to ZJT and Grant No.11605125 to YZS)the Department of Education of Hubei Province(Grant No.Q20221705 to YLT)。
文摘Ribonucleic Acid(RNA)contact prediction holds great significance for modeling RNA 3D structures and further understanding RNA biological functions.The rapid growth of RNA sequencing data has driven the development of diverse computational methods for RNA contact prediction,and a benchmark evaluation of these methods remains essential.In this work,we first classified RNA contact prediction methods into statistical inference-based and neural networkbased ones.We then evaluated eight state-of-the-art methods on three test sets:a sequencediverse set,a structurally non-redundant set and a CASP RNA targets set.Our evaluation shows that for identifying non-local and long-range contacts,neural network-based methods outperform statistical inference-based ones,with SPOT-RNA-2D achieving the best performance,followed by CoCoNet and RNAcontact.However,for identifying the long-range tertiary contacts,which are vital for stabilizing RNA tertiary structure,statistical inference-based methods exhibit superior performance with GREMLIN emerging as the top performer.This work provides a comprehensive benchmarking of RNA contact prediction methods,highlighting their strengths and limitations to guide further methodological improvements and applications in RNA structure modeling.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.12432018,12372346)the Innovative Research Groups of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.12221002).
文摘A typical Whipple shield consists of double-layered plates with a certain gap.The space debris impacts the outer plate and is broken into a debris cloud(shattered,molten,vaporized)with dispersed energy and momentum,which reduces the risk of penetrating the bulkhead.In the realm of hypervelocity impact,strain rate(>10^(5)s^(-1))effects are negligible,and fluid dynamics is employed to describe the impact process.Efficient numerical tools for precisely predicting the damage degree can greatly accelerate the design and optimization of advanced protective structures.Current hypervelocity impact research primarily focuses on the interaction between projectile and front plate and the movement of debris cloud.However,the damage mechanism of debris cloud impacts on rear plates-the critical threat component-remains underexplored owing to complex multi-physics processes and prohibitive computational costs.Existing approaches,ranging from semi-empirical equations to a machine learningbased ballistic limit prediction method,are constrained to binary penetration classification.Alternatively,the uneven data from experiments and simulations caused these methods to be ineffective when the projectile has irregular shapes and complicate flight attitude.Therefore,it is urgent to develop a new damage prediction method for predicting the rear plate damage,which can help to gain a deeper understanding of the damage mechanism.In this study,a machine learning(ML)method is developed to predict the damage distribution in the rear plate.Based on the unit velocity space,the discretized information of debris cloud and rear plate damage from rare simulation cases is used as input data for training the ML models,while the generalization ability for damage distribution prediction is tested by other simulation cases with different attack angles.The results demonstrate that the training and prediction accuracies using the Random Forest(RF)algorithm significantly surpass those using Artificial Neural Networks(ANNs)and Support Vector Machine(SVM).The RF-based model effectively identifies damage features in sparsely distributed debris cloud and cumulative effect.This study establishes an expandable new dataset that accommodates additional parameters to improve the prediction accuracy.Results demonstrate the model's ability to overcome data imbalance limitations through debris cloud features,enabling rapid and accurate rear plate damage prediction across wider scenarios with minimal data requirements.
文摘The Stackelberg prediction game(SPG)is a bilevel optimization frame-work for modeling strategic interactions between a learner and a follower.Existing meth-ods for solving this problem with general loss functions are computationally expensive and scarce.We propose a novel hyper-gradient type method with a warm-start strategy to address this challenge.Particularly,we first use a Taylor expansion-based approach to obtain a good initial point.Then we apply a hyper-gradient descent method with an ex-plicit approximate hyper-gradient.We establish the convergence results of our algorithm theoretically.Furthermore,when the follower employs the least squares loss function,our method is shown to reach an e-stationary point by solving quadratic subproblems.Numerical experiments show our algorithms are empirically orders of magnitude faster than the state-of-the-art.
文摘Rail corrugation, as a prevalent type of rail damage in heavy railways, induces diseases in the track structure. In order to ensure the safe operation of trains, an improved whale optimization algorithm is proposed to optimize the rail corrugation evolution trend prediction model of the least squares support vector machine (IPCA-ELWOA-LSSVM). The elite reverse learning combined with the Lévy flight strategy is introduced to improve the whale optimization algorithm. The improved WOA (ELWOA) algorithm is used to continuously optimize the kernel parameter σ and the normalization parameter γ in the LSSVM model. Finally, the improved prediction model is validated using data from a domestic heavy-duty railway experimental line database and compared with the prediction model before optimization and the other commonly used models. The experimental results show that the ELWOA-LSSVM prediction model has the highest accuracy, which proves that the proposed method has high accuracy in predicting the rail corrugation evolution trend.
基金supported by innovation consortium project of China Petroleum and Southwest Petroleum University (No.2020CX010201)Sichuan Science and Technology Program (No. 2024NSFSC0081)。
文摘The Canglangpu Formation in the JT1 well area of the Sichuan Basin exhibits strong lateral heterogeneity and complex overpressure mechanisms, leading to ambiguous pore pressure distribution characteristics. Conventional prediction methods, such as the Equivalent Depth Method, are either inapplicable or yield unsatisfactory results (e.g., Fillippone’s method), contributing to frequent drilling incidents like gas kick, overfl ow, and lost circulation, which hinder the safe and effi cient exploration of natural gas. To address these challenges, this paper integrates lithology, physical properties, and overpressure mechanisms of the Canglangpu Formation. From a petrophysical perspective, a pore pressure prediction model independent of lithology and overpressure mechanisms was developed by combining the poroelasticity theory, linear elastic Hooke’s Law, and Biot’s eff ective stress theory, with an analysis of the relationship between carbonate rock strain, external stress, and internal pore pressure. Unlike conventional methods, the model does not rely on the establishment of a normal compaction trend line. Pre-stack seismic inversion was applied to achieve 3D pore pressure prediction for the formation. Results indicate high accuracy, with a relative error of less than 5% compared to measured data, and strong consistency with actual drilling events. The proposed method provides robust technical support for pore pressure prediction in carbonate formations and drilling geological design.
文摘Understanding the wind power potential of a site is essential for designing an optimal wind power conditioning system. The Weibull distribution and wind speed extrapolation methods are powerful mathematical tools for efficiently predicting the frequency distribution of wind speeds at a site. Hourly wind speed and direction data were collected from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) website for the period 2013 to 2023. MATLAB software was used to calculate the distribution parameters using the graphical method and to plot the corresponding curves, while WRPLOTView software was used to construct the wind rose. The average wind speed obtained is 3.33 m/s and can reach up to 5.71 m/s at a height of 100 meters. The wind energy is estimated to be 1315.30 kWh/m2 at a height of 100 meters. The wind rose indicates the prevailing winds (ranging from 3.60 m/s to 5.70 m/s) in the northeast-east direction.
