Predicting monsoon climate is one of the major endeavors in climate science and is becoming increasingly challenging due to global warming. The accuracy of monsoon seasonal predictions significantly impacts the lives ...Predicting monsoon climate is one of the major endeavors in climate science and is becoming increasingly challenging due to global warming. The accuracy of monsoon seasonal predictions significantly impacts the lives of billions who depend on or are affected by monsoons, as it is essential for the water cycle, food security, ecology, disaster prevention, and the economy of monsoon regions. Given the extensive literature on Asian monsoon climate prediction, we limit our focus to reviewing the seasonal prediction and predictability of the Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM). However, much of this review is also relevant to monsoon predictions in other seasons and regions. Over the past two decades, considerable progress has been made in the seasonal forecasting of the ASM, driven by an enhanced understanding of the sources of predictability and the dynamics of seasonal variability, along with advanced development in sophisticated models and technologies. This review centers on advances in understanding the physical foundation for monsoon climate prediction (section 2), significant findings and insights into the primary and regional sources of predictability arising from feedback processes among various climate components (sections 3 and 4), the effects of global warming and external forcings on predictability (section 5), developments in seasonal prediction models and techniques (section 6), the challenges and limitations of monsoon climate prediction (section 7), and emerging research trends with suggestions for future directions (section 8). We hope this review will stimulate creative activities to enhance monsoon climate prediction.展开更多
The integration of machine learning(ML)technology with Internet of Things(IoT)systems produces essential changes in healthcare operations.Healthcare personnel can track patients around the clock thanks to healthcare I...The integration of machine learning(ML)technology with Internet of Things(IoT)systems produces essential changes in healthcare operations.Healthcare personnel can track patients around the clock thanks to healthcare IoT(H-IoT)technology,which also provides proactive statistical findings and precise medical diagnoses that enhance healthcare performance.This study examines how ML might support IoT-based health care systems,namely in the areas of prognostic systems,disease detection,patient tracking,and healthcare operations control.The study looks at the benefits and drawbacks of several machine learning techniques for H-IoT applications.It also examines the fundamental problems,such as data security and cyberthreats,as well as the high processing demands that these systems face.Alongside this,the essay discusses the advantages of all the technologies,including machine learning,deep learning,and the Internet of Things,as well as the significant difficulties and problems that arise when integrating the technology into healthcare forecasts.展开更多
Customer churn is the rate at which customers discontinue doing business with a company over a given time period.It is an essential measure for businesses to monitor high churn rates,as they often indicate underlying ...Customer churn is the rate at which customers discontinue doing business with a company over a given time period.It is an essential measure for businesses to monitor high churn rates,as they often indicate underlying issues with services,products,or customer experience,resulting in considerable income loss.Prediction of customer churn is a crucial task aimed at retaining customers and maintaining revenue growth.Traditional machine learning(ML)models often struggle to capture complex temporal dependencies in client behavior data.To address this,an optimized deep learning(DL)approach using a Regularized Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory(RBiLSTM)model is proposed to mitigate overfitting and improve generalization error.The model integrates dropout,L2-regularization,and early stopping to enhance predictive accuracy while preventing over-reliance on specific patterns.Moreover,this study investigates the effect of optimization techniques on boosting the training efficiency of the developed model.Experimental results on a recent public customer churn dataset demonstrate that the trained model outperforms the traditional ML models and some other DL models,such as Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM)and Deep Neural Network(DNN),in churn prediction performance and stability.The proposed approach achieves 96.1%accuracy,compared with LSTM and DNN,which attain 94.5%and 94.1%accuracy,respectively.These results confirm that the proposed approach can be used as a valuable tool for businesses to identify at-risk consumers proactively and implement targeted retention strategies.展开更多
To achieve low-carbon regulation of electric vehicle(EV)charging loads under the“dual carbon”goals,this paper proposes a coordinated scheduling strategy that integrates dynamic carbon factor prediction and multiobje...To achieve low-carbon regulation of electric vehicle(EV)charging loads under the“dual carbon”goals,this paper proposes a coordinated scheduling strategy that integrates dynamic carbon factor prediction and multiobjective optimization.First,a dual-convolution enhanced improved Crossformer prediction model is constructed,which employs parallel 1×1 global and 3×3 local convolutionmodules(Integrated Convolution Block,ICB)formultiscale feature extraction,combinedwith anAdaptive Spectral Block(ASB)to enhance time-series fluctuationmodeling.Based on high-precision predictions,a carbon-electricity cost joint optimization model is further designed to balance economic,environmental,and grid-friendly objectives.The model’s superiority was validated through a case study using real-world data from a renewable-heavy grid.Simulation results show that the proposed multi-objective strategy demonstrated a superior balance compared to baseline and benchmark models,achieving a 15.8%reduction in carbon emissions and a 5.2%reduction in economic costs,while still providing a substantial 22.2%reduction in the peak-valley difference.Its balanced performance significantly outperformed both a single-objective strategy and a state-of-the-art Model Predictive Control(MPC)benchmark,highlighting the advantage of a global optimization approach.This study provides theoretical and technical pathways for dynamic carbon factor-driven EV charging optimization.展开更多
Machine learning-assisted methods for rapid and accurate prediction of temperature field,mushy zone,and grain size were proposed for the heating−cooling combined mold(HCCM)horizontal continuous casting of C70250 alloy...Machine learning-assisted methods for rapid and accurate prediction of temperature field,mushy zone,and grain size were proposed for the heating−cooling combined mold(HCCM)horizontal continuous casting of C70250 alloy plates.First,finite element simulations of casting processes were carried out with various parameters to build a dataset.Subsequently,different machine learning algorithms were employed to achieve high precision in predicting temperature fields,mushy zone locations,mushy zone inclination angle,and billet grain size.Finally,the process parameters were quickly optimized using a strategy consisting of random generation,prediction,and screening,allowing the mushy zone to be controlled to the desired target.The optimized parameters are 1234℃for heating mold temperature,47 mm/min for casting speed,and 10 L/min for cooling water flow rate.The optimized mushy zone is located in the middle of the second heat insulation section and has an inclination angle of roughly 7°.展开更多
Current shipping,tourism,and resource development requirements call for more accurate predictions of the Arctic sea-ice concentration(SIC).However,due to the complex physical processes involved,predicting the spatiote...Current shipping,tourism,and resource development requirements call for more accurate predictions of the Arctic sea-ice concentration(SIC).However,due to the complex physical processes involved,predicting the spatiotemporal distribution of Arctic SIC is more challenging than predicting its total extent.In this study,spatiotemporal prediction models for monthly Arctic SIC at 1-to 3-month leads are developed based on U-Net-an effective convolutional deep-learning approach.Based on explicit Arctic sea-ice-atmosphere interactions,11 variables associated with Arctic sea-ice variations are selected as predictors,including observed Arctic SIC,atmospheric,oceanic,and heat flux variables at 1-to 3-month leads.The prediction skills for the monthly Arctic SIC of the test set(from January 2018 to December 2022)are evaluated by examining the mean absolute error(MAE)and binary accuracy(BA).Results showed that the U-Net model had lower MAE and higher BA for Arctic SIC compared to two dynamic climate prediction systems(CFSv2 and NorCPM).By analyzing the relative importance of each predictor,the prediction accuracy relies more on the SIC at the 1-month lead,but on the surface net solar radiation flux at 2-to 3-month leads.However,dynamic models show limited prediction skills for surface net solar radiation flux and other physical processes,especially in autumn.Therefore,the U-Net model can be used to capture the connections among these key physical processes associated with Arctic sea ice and thus offers a significant advantage in predicting Arctic SIC.展开更多
Amphibious vehicles are more prone to attitude instability compared to ships,making it crucial to develop effective methods for monitoring instability risks.However,large inclination events,which can lead to instabili...Amphibious vehicles are more prone to attitude instability compared to ships,making it crucial to develop effective methods for monitoring instability risks.However,large inclination events,which can lead to instability,occur frequently in both experimental and operational data.This infrequency causes events to be overlooked by existing prediction models,which lack the precision to accurately predict inclination attitudes in amphibious vehicles.To address this gap in predicting attitudes near extreme inclination points,this study introduces a novel loss function,termed generalized extreme value loss.Subsequently,a deep learning model for improved waterborne attitude prediction,termed iInformer,was developed using a Transformer-based approach.During the embedding phase,a text prototype is created based on the vehicle’s operation log data is constructed to help the model better understand the vehicle’s operating environment.Data segmentation techniques are used to highlight local data variation features.Furthermore,to mitigate issues related to poor convergence and slow training speeds caused by the extreme value loss function,a teacher forcing mechanism is integrated into the model,enhancing its convergence capabilities.Experimental results validate the effectiveness of the proposed method,demonstrating its ability to handle data imbalance challenges.Specifically,the model achieves over a 60%improvement in root mean square error under extreme value conditions,with significant improvements observed across additional metrics.展开更多
Accurate prediction of flood events is important for flood control and risk management.Machine learning techniques contributed greatly to advances in flood predictions,and existing studies mainly focused on predicting...Accurate prediction of flood events is important for flood control and risk management.Machine learning techniques contributed greatly to advances in flood predictions,and existing studies mainly focused on predicting flood resource variables using single or hybrid machine learning techniques.However,class-based flood predictions have rarely been investigated,which can aid in quickly diagnosing comprehensive flood characteristics and proposing targeted management strategies.This study proposed a prediction approach of flood regime metrics and event classes coupling machine learning algorithms with clustering-deduced membership degrees.Five algorithms were adopted for this exploration.Results showed that the class membership degrees accurately determined event classes with class hit rates up to 100%,compared with the four classes clustered from nine regime metrics.The nonlinear algorithms(Multiple Linear Regression,Random Forest,and least squares-Support Vector Machine)outperformed the linear techniques(Multiple Linear Regression and Stepwise Regression)in predicting flood regime metrics.The proposed approach well predicted flood event classes with average class hit rates of 66.0%-85.4%and 47.2%-76.0%in calibration and validation periods,respectively,particularly for the slow and late flood events.The predictive capability of the proposed prediction approach for flood regime metrics and classes was considerably stronger than that of hydrological modeling approach.展开更多
Accurate and efficient prediction of the distribution of surface loads on buildings subjected to explosive effects is crucial for rapidly calculating structural dynamic responses,establishing effective protective meas...Accurate and efficient prediction of the distribution of surface loads on buildings subjected to explosive effects is crucial for rapidly calculating structural dynamic responses,establishing effective protective measures,and designing civil defense engineering solutions.Current state-of-the-art methods face several issues:Experimental research is difficult and costly to implement,theoretical research is limited to simple geometries and lacks precision,and direct simulations require substantial computational resources.To address these challenges,this paper presents a data-driven method for predicting blast loads on building surfaces.This approach increases both the accuracy and computational efficiency of load predictions when the geometry of the building changes while the explosive yield remains constant,significantly improving its applicability in complex scenarios.This study introduces an innovative encoder-decoder graph neural network model named BlastGraphNet,which uses a message-passing mechanism to predict the overpressure and impulse load distributions on buildings with conventional and complex geometries during explosive events.The model also facilitates related downstream applications,such as damage mode identification and rapid assessment of virtual city explosions.The calculation results indicate that the prediction error of the model for conventional building tests is less than 2%,and its inference speed is 3-4 orders of magnitude faster than that of state-of-the-art numerical methods.In extreme test cases involving buildings with complex geometries and building clusters,the method achieved high accuracy and excellent generalizability.The strong adaptability and generalizability of BlastGraphNet confirm that this novel method enables precise real-time prediction of blast loads and provides a new paradigm for damage assessment in protective engineering.展开更多
Phenotypic prediction is a promising strategy for accelerating plant breeding.Data from multiple sources(called multi-view data)can provide complementary information to characterize a biological object from various as...Phenotypic prediction is a promising strategy for accelerating plant breeding.Data from multiple sources(called multi-view data)can provide complementary information to characterize a biological object from various aspects.By integrating multi-view information into phenotypic prediction,a multi-view best linear unbiased prediction(MVBLUP)method is proposed in this paper.To measure the importance of multiple data views,the differential evolution algorithm with an early stopping mechanism is used,by which we obtain a multi-view kinship matrix and then incorporate it into the BLUP model for phenotypic prediction.To further illustrate the characteristics of MVBLUP,we perform the empirical experiments on four multi-view datasets in different crops.Compared to the single-view method,the prediction accuracy of the MVBLUP method has improved by 0.038–0.201 on average.The results demonstrate that the MVBLUP is an effective integrative prediction method for multi-view data.展开更多
Stock price prediction is a typical complex time series prediction problem characterized by dynamics,nonlinearity,and complexity.This paper introduces a generative adversarial network model that incorporates an attent...Stock price prediction is a typical complex time series prediction problem characterized by dynamics,nonlinearity,and complexity.This paper introduces a generative adversarial network model that incorporates an attention mechanism(GAN-LSTM-Attention)to improve the accuracy of stock price prediction.Firstly,the generator of this model combines the Long and Short-Term Memory Network(LSTM),the Attention Mechanism and,the Fully-Connected Layer,focusing on generating the predicted stock price.The discriminator combines the Convolutional Neural Network(CNN)and the Fully-Connected Layer to discriminate between real stock prices and generated stock prices.Secondly,to evaluate the practical application ability and generalization ability of the GAN-LSTM-Attention model,four representative stocks in the United States of America(USA)stock market,namely,Standard&Poor’s 500 Index stock,Apple Incorporatedstock,AdvancedMicroDevices Incorporatedstock,and Google Incorporated stock were selected for prediction experiments,and the prediction performance was comprehensively evaluated by using the three evaluation metrics,namely,mean absolute error(MAE),root mean square error(RMSE),and coefficient of determination(R2).Finally,the specific effects of the attention mechanism,convolutional layer,and fully-connected layer on the prediction performance of the model are systematically analyzed through ablation study.The results of experiment show that the GAN-LSTM-Attention model exhibits excellent performance and robustness in stock price prediction.展开更多
Maintaining high groundwater level(GWL)is important for preventing fires in peatlands.This study proposes GWL prediction using machine learning methods for forest plantations in Indonesian tropical peatlands.Deep neur...Maintaining high groundwater level(GWL)is important for preventing fires in peatlands.This study proposes GWL prediction using machine learning methods for forest plantations in Indonesian tropical peatlands.Deep neural networks(DNN)have been used for prediction;however,they have not been applied to groundwater prediction in Indonesian peatlands.Tropical peatland is characterized by high permeability and forest plantations are surrounded by several canals.By predicting daily differences in GWL,the GWL can be predicted with high accuracy.DNNs,random forests,support vector regression,and XGBoost were compared,all of which indicated similar errors.The SHAP value revealed that the precipitation falling on the hill rapidly seeps into the soil and flows into the canals,which agrees with the fact that the soil has high permeability.These findings can potentially be used to alleviate and manage future fires in peatlands.展开更多
1. Background Driven by ongoing economic expansion and low-altitude aviation development, the global air transportation industry has experienced significant growth in recent decades, resulting in increasing airspace c...1. Background Driven by ongoing economic expansion and low-altitude aviation development, the global air transportation industry has experienced significant growth in recent decades, resulting in increasing airspace complexity, and considerable challenges for Air Traffic Control(ATC). As the fundamental technique of the ATC system, Flight Trajectory Prediction(FTP) forecasts future traffic dynamics to support critical applications(such as conflict detection), and also serves as a cornerstone for future Trajectory-based Operations(TBO).展开更多
With the rapid development of economy,air pollution caused by industrial expansion has caused serious harm to human health and social development.Therefore,establishing an effective air pollution concentration predict...With the rapid development of economy,air pollution caused by industrial expansion has caused serious harm to human health and social development.Therefore,establishing an effective air pollution concentration prediction system is of great scientific and practical significance for accurate and reliable predictions.This paper proposes a combination of pointinterval prediction system for pollutant concentration prediction by leveraging neural network,meta-heuristic optimization algorithm,and fuzzy theory.Fuzzy information granulation technology is used in data preprocessing to transform numerical sequences into fuzzy particles for comprehensive feature extraction.The golden Jackal optimization algorithm is employed in the optimization stage to fine-tune model hyperparameters.In the prediction stage,an ensemble learning method combines training results frommultiplemodels to obtain final point predictions while also utilizing quantile regression and kernel density estimation methods for interval predictions on the test set.Experimental results demonstrate that the combined model achieves a high goodness of fit coefficient of determination(R^(2))at 99.3% and a maximum difference between prediction accuracy mean absolute percentage error(MAPE)and benchmark model at 12.6%.This suggests that the integrated learning system proposed in this paper can provide more accurate deterministic predictions as well as reliable uncertainty analysis compared to traditionalmodels,offering practical reference for air quality early warning.展开更多
Skull structures are important for biomechanical head simulations,but they are mostly reconstructed frommedical images.These reconstruction methods harmthe human body and have a long processing time.Currently,skull st...Skull structures are important for biomechanical head simulations,but they are mostly reconstructed frommedical images.These reconstruction methods harmthe human body and have a long processing time.Currently,skull structures canbe straightforwardly predictedfromthe head,but a fullheadshapemust be available.Most scanning devices can only capture the face shape.Consequently,a method that can quickly predict the full skull structures from the face is necessary.In this study,a novel face-to-skull prediction procedure is introduced.Given a threedimensional(3-D)face shape,a skull mesh could be predicted so that its shape would statistically fit the face shape.Several prediction strategies were conducted.The optimal prediction strategy with its optimal hyperparameters was experimentally selected through a ten-fold cross-validation with 329 subjects.As a result,the face-to-skull prediction strategy based on the relations between face head shape and back head shape,between face head shape and face skull shape,and between back head shape and back skull shape was optimal.The optimal mean mesh-to-mesh distance(mean±SD)between the predicted skull shapes and the ground truth skull shapes was 1.93±0.36 mm,and those between the predicted skull meshes and the ground truth skull meshes were 2.65±0.36 mm.Moreover,the prediction errors in back-skull and muscle attachment regions were 1.7432±0.5217 mm and 1.7671±0.3829 mm,respectively.These errors are within the acceptable range of facial muscle simulation.In perspective,this method will be employed in our clinical decision support system to enhance the accuracy of biomechanical head simulation based on a stereo fusion camera system.Moreover,we will also enhance the accuracy of the face-to-skull prediction by diversifying the dataset intomore varied geographical regions and genders.More types of parameters,such as BodyMass Index(BMI),coupled with head-to-skull thicknesses,will be fused with the proposed face-to-skull procedure.展开更多
The Canglangpu Formation in the JT1 well area of the Sichuan Basin exhibits strong lateral heterogeneity and complex overpressure mechanisms, leading to ambiguous pore pressure distribution characteristics. Convention...The Canglangpu Formation in the JT1 well area of the Sichuan Basin exhibits strong lateral heterogeneity and complex overpressure mechanisms, leading to ambiguous pore pressure distribution characteristics. Conventional prediction methods, such as the Equivalent Depth Method, are either inapplicable or yield unsatisfactory results (e.g., Fillippone’s method), contributing to frequent drilling incidents like gas kick, overfl ow, and lost circulation, which hinder the safe and effi cient exploration of natural gas. To address these challenges, this paper integrates lithology, physical properties, and overpressure mechanisms of the Canglangpu Formation. From a petrophysical perspective, a pore pressure prediction model independent of lithology and overpressure mechanisms was developed by combining the poroelasticity theory, linear elastic Hooke’s Law, and Biot’s eff ective stress theory, with an analysis of the relationship between carbonate rock strain, external stress, and internal pore pressure. Unlike conventional methods, the model does not rely on the establishment of a normal compaction trend line. Pre-stack seismic inversion was applied to achieve 3D pore pressure prediction for the formation. Results indicate high accuracy, with a relative error of less than 5% compared to measured data, and strong consistency with actual drilling events. The proposed method provides robust technical support for pore pressure prediction in carbonate formations and drilling geological design.展开更多
Polymer optical materials are becoming increasingly important in modern technologies owing to their unique properties.This study applies coupled perturbed density functional theory(DFT)to predict the refractive index(...Polymer optical materials are becoming increasingly important in modern technologies owing to their unique properties.This study applies coupled perturbed density functional theory(DFT)to predict the refractive index(RI)and Abbe number of polymers.Using the LorentzLorenz equation,the frequency-dependent polarizability and molecular volume were calculated to estimate RI.Wavelength-dependent RI values were used to derive the Abbe numbers.Our results show a strong correlation with experimental data,with Pearson coefficients of 0.912 for RI and 0.968 for Abbe number,enabling the introduction of linear correction functions to minimize discrepancies between theoretical predictions and experimental results.By categorizing polymers into classes such as poly(methyl methacrylate)(PMMA)-,polyethylene(PE)-,polycarbonate(PC)-,polyimide(PI)-,and polyurethane(PU)-based materials,this method enables precise predictions and reduces discrepancies using linear correction functions.This efficient and direct computational framework avoids the complexity of traditional models and offers a practical tool for the design and optimization of advanced optical materials.展开更多
Based on observed meteorological elements,photolysis rates(J-values)and pollutant concentrations,an automated J-values predicting system by machine learning(J-ML)has been developed to reproduce and predict the J-value...Based on observed meteorological elements,photolysis rates(J-values)and pollutant concentrations,an automated J-values predicting system by machine learning(J-ML)has been developed to reproduce and predict the J-values of O^(1)D,NO_(2),HONO,H_(2)O_(2),HCHO,and NO_(3),which are the crucial values for the prediction of the atmospheric oxidation capacity(AOC)and secondary pollutant concentrations such as ozone(O_(3)),secondary organic aerosols(SOA).The J-ML can self-select the optimal“Model+Hyperparameters”without human interference.The evaluated results showed that the J-ML had a good performance to reproduce the J-values wheremost of the correlation(R)coefficients exceed 0.93 and the accuracy(P)values are in the range of 0.68-0.83,comparing with the J-values from observations and from the tropospheric ultraviolet and visible(TUV)radiation model in Beijing,Chengdu,Guangzhou and Shanghai,China.The hourly prediction was also well performed with R from 0.78 to 0.81 for next 3-days and from 0.69 to 0.71 for next 7-days,respectively.Compared with O_(3)concentrations by using J-values from the TUV model,an emission-driven observation-based model(e-OBM)by using the J-values from the J-ML showed a 4%-12%increase in R and 4%-30%decrease in ME,indicating that the J-ML could be used as an excellent supplement to traditional numerical models.The feature importance analysis concluded that the key influential parameter was the surface solar downwards radiation for all J-values,and the other dominant factors for all J-values were 2-m mean temperature,O_(3),total cloud cover,boundary layer height,relative humidity and surface pressure.展开更多
Sinter is the core raw material for blast furnaces.Flue pressure,which is an important state parameter,affects sinter quality.In this paper,flue pressure prediction and optimization were studied based on the shapley a...Sinter is the core raw material for blast furnaces.Flue pressure,which is an important state parameter,affects sinter quality.In this paper,flue pressure prediction and optimization were studied based on the shapley additive explanation(SHAP)to predict the flue pressure and take targeted adjustment measures.First,the sintering process data were collected and processed.A flue pressure prediction model was then constructed after comparing different feature selection methods and model algorithms using SHAP+extremely random-ized trees(ET).The prediction accuracy of the model within the error range of±0.25 kPa was 92.63%.SHAP analysis was employed to improve the interpretability of the prediction model.The effects of various sintering operation parameters on flue pressure,the relation-ship between the numerical range of key operation parameters and flue pressure,the effect of operation parameter combinations on flue pressure,and the prediction process of the flue pressure prediction model on a single sample were analyzed.A flue pressure optimization module was also constructed and analyzed when the prediction satisfied the judgment conditions.The operating parameter combination was then pushed.The flue pressure was increased by 5.87%during the verification process,achieving a good optimization effect.展开更多
Photovoltaic (PV) modules, as essential components of solar power generation systems, significantly influence unitpower generation costs.The service life of these modules directly affects these costs. Over time, the p...Photovoltaic (PV) modules, as essential components of solar power generation systems, significantly influence unitpower generation costs.The service life of these modules directly affects these costs. Over time, the performanceof PV modules gradually declines due to internal degradation and external environmental factors.This cumulativedegradation impacts the overall reliability of photovoltaic power generation. This study addresses the complexdegradation process of PV modules by developing a two-stage Wiener process model. This approach accountsfor the distinct phases of degradation resulting from module aging and environmental influences. A powerdegradation model based on the two-stage Wiener process is constructed to describe individual differences inmodule degradation processes. To estimate the model parameters, a combination of the Expectation-Maximization(EM) algorithm and the Bayesian method is employed. Furthermore, the Schwarz Information Criterion (SIC) isutilized to identify critical change points in PV module degradation trajectories. To validate the universality andeffectiveness of the proposed method, a comparative analysis is conducted against other established life predictiontechniques for PV modules.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.U2342208)support from NSF/Climate Dynamics Award#2025057。
文摘Predicting monsoon climate is one of the major endeavors in climate science and is becoming increasingly challenging due to global warming. The accuracy of monsoon seasonal predictions significantly impacts the lives of billions who depend on or are affected by monsoons, as it is essential for the water cycle, food security, ecology, disaster prevention, and the economy of monsoon regions. Given the extensive literature on Asian monsoon climate prediction, we limit our focus to reviewing the seasonal prediction and predictability of the Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM). However, much of this review is also relevant to monsoon predictions in other seasons and regions. Over the past two decades, considerable progress has been made in the seasonal forecasting of the ASM, driven by an enhanced understanding of the sources of predictability and the dynamics of seasonal variability, along with advanced development in sophisticated models and technologies. This review centers on advances in understanding the physical foundation for monsoon climate prediction (section 2), significant findings and insights into the primary and regional sources of predictability arising from feedback processes among various climate components (sections 3 and 4), the effects of global warming and external forcings on predictability (section 5), developments in seasonal prediction models and techniques (section 6), the challenges and limitations of monsoon climate prediction (section 7), and emerging research trends with suggestions for future directions (section 8). We hope this review will stimulate creative activities to enhance monsoon climate prediction.
文摘The integration of machine learning(ML)technology with Internet of Things(IoT)systems produces essential changes in healthcare operations.Healthcare personnel can track patients around the clock thanks to healthcare IoT(H-IoT)technology,which also provides proactive statistical findings and precise medical diagnoses that enhance healthcare performance.This study examines how ML might support IoT-based health care systems,namely in the areas of prognostic systems,disease detection,patient tracking,and healthcare operations control.The study looks at the benefits and drawbacks of several machine learning techniques for H-IoT applications.It also examines the fundamental problems,such as data security and cyberthreats,as well as the high processing demands that these systems face.Alongside this,the essay discusses the advantages of all the technologies,including machine learning,deep learning,and the Internet of Things,as well as the significant difficulties and problems that arise when integrating the technology into healthcare forecasts.
文摘Customer churn is the rate at which customers discontinue doing business with a company over a given time period.It is an essential measure for businesses to monitor high churn rates,as they often indicate underlying issues with services,products,or customer experience,resulting in considerable income loss.Prediction of customer churn is a crucial task aimed at retaining customers and maintaining revenue growth.Traditional machine learning(ML)models often struggle to capture complex temporal dependencies in client behavior data.To address this,an optimized deep learning(DL)approach using a Regularized Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory(RBiLSTM)model is proposed to mitigate overfitting and improve generalization error.The model integrates dropout,L2-regularization,and early stopping to enhance predictive accuracy while preventing over-reliance on specific patterns.Moreover,this study investigates the effect of optimization techniques on boosting the training efficiency of the developed model.Experimental results on a recent public customer churn dataset demonstrate that the trained model outperforms the traditional ML models and some other DL models,such as Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM)and Deep Neural Network(DNN),in churn prediction performance and stability.The proposed approach achieves 96.1%accuracy,compared with LSTM and DNN,which attain 94.5%and 94.1%accuracy,respectively.These results confirm that the proposed approach can be used as a valuable tool for businesses to identify at-risk consumers proactively and implement targeted retention strategies.
基金Supported by State Grid Corporation of China Science and Technology Project:Research on Key Technologies for Intelligent Carbon Metrology in Vehicle-to-Grid Interaction(Project Number:B3018524000Q).
文摘To achieve low-carbon regulation of electric vehicle(EV)charging loads under the“dual carbon”goals,this paper proposes a coordinated scheduling strategy that integrates dynamic carbon factor prediction and multiobjective optimization.First,a dual-convolution enhanced improved Crossformer prediction model is constructed,which employs parallel 1×1 global and 3×3 local convolutionmodules(Integrated Convolution Block,ICB)formultiscale feature extraction,combinedwith anAdaptive Spectral Block(ASB)to enhance time-series fluctuationmodeling.Based on high-precision predictions,a carbon-electricity cost joint optimization model is further designed to balance economic,environmental,and grid-friendly objectives.The model’s superiority was validated through a case study using real-world data from a renewable-heavy grid.Simulation results show that the proposed multi-objective strategy demonstrated a superior balance compared to baseline and benchmark models,achieving a 15.8%reduction in carbon emissions and a 5.2%reduction in economic costs,while still providing a substantial 22.2%reduction in the peak-valley difference.Its balanced performance significantly outperformed both a single-objective strategy and a state-of-the-art Model Predictive Control(MPC)benchmark,highlighting the advantage of a global optimization approach.This study provides theoretical and technical pathways for dynamic carbon factor-driven EV charging optimization.
基金financially supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (No. 2023YFB3812601)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51925401)the Young Elite Scientists Sponsorship Program by CAST, China (No. 2022QNRC001)。
文摘Machine learning-assisted methods for rapid and accurate prediction of temperature field,mushy zone,and grain size were proposed for the heating−cooling combined mold(HCCM)horizontal continuous casting of C70250 alloy plates.First,finite element simulations of casting processes were carried out with various parameters to build a dataset.Subsequently,different machine learning algorithms were employed to achieve high precision in predicting temperature fields,mushy zone locations,mushy zone inclination angle,and billet grain size.Finally,the process parameters were quickly optimized using a strategy consisting of random generation,prediction,and screening,allowing the mushy zone to be controlled to the desired target.The optimized parameters are 1234℃for heating mold temperature,47 mm/min for casting speed,and 10 L/min for cooling water flow rate.The optimized mushy zone is located in the middle of the second heat insulation section and has an inclination angle of roughly 7°.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China[grant number 2022YFE0106800]an Innovation Group Project of the Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)[grant number 311024001]+3 种基金a project supported by the Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)[grant number SML2023SP209]a Research Council of Norway funded project(MAPARC)[grant number 328943]a Nansen Center´s basic institutional funding[grant number 342624]the high-performance computing support from the School of Atmospheric Science at Sun Yat-sen University。
文摘Current shipping,tourism,and resource development requirements call for more accurate predictions of the Arctic sea-ice concentration(SIC).However,due to the complex physical processes involved,predicting the spatiotemporal distribution of Arctic SIC is more challenging than predicting its total extent.In this study,spatiotemporal prediction models for monthly Arctic SIC at 1-to 3-month leads are developed based on U-Net-an effective convolutional deep-learning approach.Based on explicit Arctic sea-ice-atmosphere interactions,11 variables associated with Arctic sea-ice variations are selected as predictors,including observed Arctic SIC,atmospheric,oceanic,and heat flux variables at 1-to 3-month leads.The prediction skills for the monthly Arctic SIC of the test set(from January 2018 to December 2022)are evaluated by examining the mean absolute error(MAE)and binary accuracy(BA).Results showed that the U-Net model had lower MAE and higher BA for Arctic SIC compared to two dynamic climate prediction systems(CFSv2 and NorCPM).By analyzing the relative importance of each predictor,the prediction accuracy relies more on the SIC at the 1-month lead,but on the surface net solar radiation flux at 2-to 3-month leads.However,dynamic models show limited prediction skills for surface net solar radiation flux and other physical processes,especially in autumn.Therefore,the U-Net model can be used to capture the connections among these key physical processes associated with Arctic sea ice and thus offers a significant advantage in predicting Arctic SIC.
基金Supported by the National Defense Basic Scientific Research Program of China.
文摘Amphibious vehicles are more prone to attitude instability compared to ships,making it crucial to develop effective methods for monitoring instability risks.However,large inclination events,which can lead to instability,occur frequently in both experimental and operational data.This infrequency causes events to be overlooked by existing prediction models,which lack the precision to accurately predict inclination attitudes in amphibious vehicles.To address this gap in predicting attitudes near extreme inclination points,this study introduces a novel loss function,termed generalized extreme value loss.Subsequently,a deep learning model for improved waterborne attitude prediction,termed iInformer,was developed using a Transformer-based approach.During the embedding phase,a text prototype is created based on the vehicle’s operation log data is constructed to help the model better understand the vehicle’s operating environment.Data segmentation techniques are used to highlight local data variation features.Furthermore,to mitigate issues related to poor convergence and slow training speeds caused by the extreme value loss function,a teacher forcing mechanism is integrated into the model,enhancing its convergence capabilities.Experimental results validate the effectiveness of the proposed method,demonstrating its ability to handle data imbalance challenges.Specifically,the model achieves over a 60%improvement in root mean square error under extreme value conditions,with significant improvements observed across additional metrics.
基金National Key Research and Development Program of China,No.2023YFC3006704National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.42171047CAS-CSIRO Partnership Joint Project of 2024,No.177GJHZ2023097MI。
文摘Accurate prediction of flood events is important for flood control and risk management.Machine learning techniques contributed greatly to advances in flood predictions,and existing studies mainly focused on predicting flood resource variables using single or hybrid machine learning techniques.However,class-based flood predictions have rarely been investigated,which can aid in quickly diagnosing comprehensive flood characteristics and proposing targeted management strategies.This study proposed a prediction approach of flood regime metrics and event classes coupling machine learning algorithms with clustering-deduced membership degrees.Five algorithms were adopted for this exploration.Results showed that the class membership degrees accurately determined event classes with class hit rates up to 100%,compared with the four classes clustered from nine regime metrics.The nonlinear algorithms(Multiple Linear Regression,Random Forest,and least squares-Support Vector Machine)outperformed the linear techniques(Multiple Linear Regression and Stepwise Regression)in predicting flood regime metrics.The proposed approach well predicted flood event classes with average class hit rates of 66.0%-85.4%and 47.2%-76.0%in calibration and validation periods,respectively,particularly for the slow and late flood events.The predictive capability of the proposed prediction approach for flood regime metrics and classes was considerably stronger than that of hydrological modeling approach.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Founion of China(U2241285).
文摘Accurate and efficient prediction of the distribution of surface loads on buildings subjected to explosive effects is crucial for rapidly calculating structural dynamic responses,establishing effective protective measures,and designing civil defense engineering solutions.Current state-of-the-art methods face several issues:Experimental research is difficult and costly to implement,theoretical research is limited to simple geometries and lacks precision,and direct simulations require substantial computational resources.To address these challenges,this paper presents a data-driven method for predicting blast loads on building surfaces.This approach increases both the accuracy and computational efficiency of load predictions when the geometry of the building changes while the explosive yield remains constant,significantly improving its applicability in complex scenarios.This study introduces an innovative encoder-decoder graph neural network model named BlastGraphNet,which uses a message-passing mechanism to predict the overpressure and impulse load distributions on buildings with conventional and complex geometries during explosive events.The model also facilitates related downstream applications,such as damage mode identification and rapid assessment of virtual city explosions.The calculation results indicate that the prediction error of the model for conventional building tests is less than 2%,and its inference speed is 3-4 orders of magnitude faster than that of state-of-the-art numerical methods.In extreme test cases involving buildings with complex geometries and building clusters,the method achieved high accuracy and excellent generalizability.The strong adaptability and generalizability of BlastGraphNet confirm that this novel method enables precise real-time prediction of blast loads and provides a new paradigm for damage assessment in protective engineering.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(32122066,32201855)STI2030—Major Projects(2023ZD04076).
文摘Phenotypic prediction is a promising strategy for accelerating plant breeding.Data from multiple sources(called multi-view data)can provide complementary information to characterize a biological object from various aspects.By integrating multi-view information into phenotypic prediction,a multi-view best linear unbiased prediction(MVBLUP)method is proposed in this paper.To measure the importance of multiple data views,the differential evolution algorithm with an early stopping mechanism is used,by which we obtain a multi-view kinship matrix and then incorporate it into the BLUP model for phenotypic prediction.To further illustrate the characteristics of MVBLUP,we perform the empirical experiments on four multi-view datasets in different crops.Compared to the single-view method,the prediction accuracy of the MVBLUP method has improved by 0.038–0.201 on average.The results demonstrate that the MVBLUP is an effective integrative prediction method for multi-view data.
基金funded by the project supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Heilongjiang Provincial(Grant Number LH2023F033)the Science and Technology Innovation Talent Project of Harbin(Grant Number 2022CXRCCG006).
文摘Stock price prediction is a typical complex time series prediction problem characterized by dynamics,nonlinearity,and complexity.This paper introduces a generative adversarial network model that incorporates an attention mechanism(GAN-LSTM-Attention)to improve the accuracy of stock price prediction.Firstly,the generator of this model combines the Long and Short-Term Memory Network(LSTM),the Attention Mechanism and,the Fully-Connected Layer,focusing on generating the predicted stock price.The discriminator combines the Convolutional Neural Network(CNN)and the Fully-Connected Layer to discriminate between real stock prices and generated stock prices.Secondly,to evaluate the practical application ability and generalization ability of the GAN-LSTM-Attention model,four representative stocks in the United States of America(USA)stock market,namely,Standard&Poor’s 500 Index stock,Apple Incorporatedstock,AdvancedMicroDevices Incorporatedstock,and Google Incorporated stock were selected for prediction experiments,and the prediction performance was comprehensively evaluated by using the three evaluation metrics,namely,mean absolute error(MAE),root mean square error(RMSE),and coefficient of determination(R2).Finally,the specific effects of the attention mechanism,convolutional layer,and fully-connected layer on the prediction performance of the model are systematically analyzed through ablation study.The results of experiment show that the GAN-LSTM-Attention model exhibits excellent performance and robustness in stock price prediction.
基金supported by JSPS KAKENHI Grant Number JP21K14064 and JP23K13239.
文摘Maintaining high groundwater level(GWL)is important for preventing fires in peatlands.This study proposes GWL prediction using machine learning methods for forest plantations in Indonesian tropical peatlands.Deep neural networks(DNN)have been used for prediction;however,they have not been applied to groundwater prediction in Indonesian peatlands.Tropical peatland is characterized by high permeability and forest plantations are surrounded by several canals.By predicting daily differences in GWL,the GWL can be predicted with high accuracy.DNNs,random forests,support vector regression,and XGBoost were compared,all of which indicated similar errors.The SHAP value revealed that the precipitation falling on the hill rapidly seeps into the soil and flows into the canals,which agrees with the fact that the soil has high permeability.These findings can potentially be used to alleviate and manage future fires in peatlands.
文摘1. Background Driven by ongoing economic expansion and low-altitude aviation development, the global air transportation industry has experienced significant growth in recent decades, resulting in increasing airspace complexity, and considerable challenges for Air Traffic Control(ATC). As the fundamental technique of the ATC system, Flight Trajectory Prediction(FTP) forecasts future traffic dynamics to support critical applications(such as conflict detection), and also serves as a cornerstone for future Trajectory-based Operations(TBO).
基金supported by General Scientific Research Funding of the Science and Technology Development Fund(FDCT)in Macao(No.0150/2022/A)the Faculty Research Grants of Macao University of Science and Technology(No.FRG-22-074-FIE).
文摘With the rapid development of economy,air pollution caused by industrial expansion has caused serious harm to human health and social development.Therefore,establishing an effective air pollution concentration prediction system is of great scientific and practical significance for accurate and reliable predictions.This paper proposes a combination of pointinterval prediction system for pollutant concentration prediction by leveraging neural network,meta-heuristic optimization algorithm,and fuzzy theory.Fuzzy information granulation technology is used in data preprocessing to transform numerical sequences into fuzzy particles for comprehensive feature extraction.The golden Jackal optimization algorithm is employed in the optimization stage to fine-tune model hyperparameters.In the prediction stage,an ensemble learning method combines training results frommultiplemodels to obtain final point predictions while also utilizing quantile regression and kernel density estimation methods for interval predictions on the test set.Experimental results demonstrate that the combined model achieves a high goodness of fit coefficient of determination(R^(2))at 99.3% and a maximum difference between prediction accuracy mean absolute percentage error(MAPE)and benchmark model at 12.6%.This suggests that the integrated learning system proposed in this paper can provide more accurate deterministic predictions as well as reliable uncertainty analysis compared to traditionalmodels,offering practical reference for air quality early warning.
基金funded by the International University,VNU-HCM,under grant number T2023-01-BME.
文摘Skull structures are important for biomechanical head simulations,but they are mostly reconstructed frommedical images.These reconstruction methods harmthe human body and have a long processing time.Currently,skull structures canbe straightforwardly predictedfromthe head,but a fullheadshapemust be available.Most scanning devices can only capture the face shape.Consequently,a method that can quickly predict the full skull structures from the face is necessary.In this study,a novel face-to-skull prediction procedure is introduced.Given a threedimensional(3-D)face shape,a skull mesh could be predicted so that its shape would statistically fit the face shape.Several prediction strategies were conducted.The optimal prediction strategy with its optimal hyperparameters was experimentally selected through a ten-fold cross-validation with 329 subjects.As a result,the face-to-skull prediction strategy based on the relations between face head shape and back head shape,between face head shape and face skull shape,and between back head shape and back skull shape was optimal.The optimal mean mesh-to-mesh distance(mean±SD)between the predicted skull shapes and the ground truth skull shapes was 1.93±0.36 mm,and those between the predicted skull meshes and the ground truth skull meshes were 2.65±0.36 mm.Moreover,the prediction errors in back-skull and muscle attachment regions were 1.7432±0.5217 mm and 1.7671±0.3829 mm,respectively.These errors are within the acceptable range of facial muscle simulation.In perspective,this method will be employed in our clinical decision support system to enhance the accuracy of biomechanical head simulation based on a stereo fusion camera system.Moreover,we will also enhance the accuracy of the face-to-skull prediction by diversifying the dataset intomore varied geographical regions and genders.More types of parameters,such as BodyMass Index(BMI),coupled with head-to-skull thicknesses,will be fused with the proposed face-to-skull procedure.
基金supported by innovation consortium project of China Petroleum and Southwest Petroleum University (No.2020CX010201)Sichuan Science and Technology Program (No. 2024NSFSC0081)。
文摘The Canglangpu Formation in the JT1 well area of the Sichuan Basin exhibits strong lateral heterogeneity and complex overpressure mechanisms, leading to ambiguous pore pressure distribution characteristics. Conventional prediction methods, such as the Equivalent Depth Method, are either inapplicable or yield unsatisfactory results (e.g., Fillippone’s method), contributing to frequent drilling incidents like gas kick, overfl ow, and lost circulation, which hinder the safe and effi cient exploration of natural gas. To address these challenges, this paper integrates lithology, physical properties, and overpressure mechanisms of the Canglangpu Formation. From a petrophysical perspective, a pore pressure prediction model independent of lithology and overpressure mechanisms was developed by combining the poroelasticity theory, linear elastic Hooke’s Law, and Biot’s eff ective stress theory, with an analysis of the relationship between carbonate rock strain, external stress, and internal pore pressure. Unlike conventional methods, the model does not rely on the establishment of a normal compaction trend line. Pre-stack seismic inversion was applied to achieve 3D pore pressure prediction for the formation. Results indicate high accuracy, with a relative error of less than 5% compared to measured data, and strong consistency with actual drilling events. The proposed method provides robust technical support for pore pressure prediction in carbonate formations and drilling geological design.
基金financially supported by the Shenzhen Science and Technology Project(Nos.JCYJ20210324095210028,JSGGZD20220822095201003)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(U21A2087)。
文摘Polymer optical materials are becoming increasingly important in modern technologies owing to their unique properties.This study applies coupled perturbed density functional theory(DFT)to predict the refractive index(RI)and Abbe number of polymers.Using the LorentzLorenz equation,the frequency-dependent polarizability and molecular volume were calculated to estimate RI.Wavelength-dependent RI values were used to derive the Abbe numbers.Our results show a strong correlation with experimental data,with Pearson coefficients of 0.912 for RI and 0.968 for Abbe number,enabling the introduction of linear correction functions to minimize discrepancies between theoretical predictions and experimental results.By categorizing polymers into classes such as poly(methyl methacrylate)(PMMA)-,polyethylene(PE)-,polycarbonate(PC)-,polyimide(PI)-,and polyurethane(PU)-based materials,this method enables precise predictions and reduces discrepancies using linear correction functions.This efficient and direct computational framework avoids the complexity of traditional models and offers a practical tool for the design and optimization of advanced optical materials.
基金supported by the National Key Project of the Ministry of Science and Technology of China(No.2022YFC3701200)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42090030).
文摘Based on observed meteorological elements,photolysis rates(J-values)and pollutant concentrations,an automated J-values predicting system by machine learning(J-ML)has been developed to reproduce and predict the J-values of O^(1)D,NO_(2),HONO,H_(2)O_(2),HCHO,and NO_(3),which are the crucial values for the prediction of the atmospheric oxidation capacity(AOC)and secondary pollutant concentrations such as ozone(O_(3)),secondary organic aerosols(SOA).The J-ML can self-select the optimal“Model+Hyperparameters”without human interference.The evaluated results showed that the J-ML had a good performance to reproduce the J-values wheremost of the correlation(R)coefficients exceed 0.93 and the accuracy(P)values are in the range of 0.68-0.83,comparing with the J-values from observations and from the tropospheric ultraviolet and visible(TUV)radiation model in Beijing,Chengdu,Guangzhou and Shanghai,China.The hourly prediction was also well performed with R from 0.78 to 0.81 for next 3-days and from 0.69 to 0.71 for next 7-days,respectively.Compared with O_(3)concentrations by using J-values from the TUV model,an emission-driven observation-based model(e-OBM)by using the J-values from the J-ML showed a 4%-12%increase in R and 4%-30%decrease in ME,indicating that the J-ML could be used as an excellent supplement to traditional numerical models.The feature importance analysis concluded that the key influential parameter was the surface solar downwards radiation for all J-values,and the other dominant factors for all J-values were 2-m mean temperature,O_(3),total cloud cover,boundary layer height,relative humidity and surface pressure.
基金supported by the General Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52274326)the China Baowu Low Carbon Metallurgy Innovation Foundation(No.BWLCF202109)the Seventh Batch of Ten Thousand Talents Plan of China(No.ZX20220553).
文摘Sinter is the core raw material for blast furnaces.Flue pressure,which is an important state parameter,affects sinter quality.In this paper,flue pressure prediction and optimization were studied based on the shapley additive explanation(SHAP)to predict the flue pressure and take targeted adjustment measures.First,the sintering process data were collected and processed.A flue pressure prediction model was then constructed after comparing different feature selection methods and model algorithms using SHAP+extremely random-ized trees(ET).The prediction accuracy of the model within the error range of±0.25 kPa was 92.63%.SHAP analysis was employed to improve the interpretability of the prediction model.The effects of various sintering operation parameters on flue pressure,the relation-ship between the numerical range of key operation parameters and flue pressure,the effect of operation parameter combinations on flue pressure,and the prediction process of the flue pressure prediction model on a single sample were analyzed.A flue pressure optimization module was also constructed and analyzed when the prediction satisfied the judgment conditions.The operating parameter combination was then pushed.The flue pressure was increased by 5.87%during the verification process,achieving a good optimization effect.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(51767017)the Basic Research Innovation Group Project of Gansu Province(18JR3RA133)the Industrial Support and Guidance Project of Universities in Gansu Province(2022CYZC-22).
文摘Photovoltaic (PV) modules, as essential components of solar power generation systems, significantly influence unitpower generation costs.The service life of these modules directly affects these costs. Over time, the performanceof PV modules gradually declines due to internal degradation and external environmental factors.This cumulativedegradation impacts the overall reliability of photovoltaic power generation. This study addresses the complexdegradation process of PV modules by developing a two-stage Wiener process model. This approach accountsfor the distinct phases of degradation resulting from module aging and environmental influences. A powerdegradation model based on the two-stage Wiener process is constructed to describe individual differences inmodule degradation processes. To estimate the model parameters, a combination of the Expectation-Maximization(EM) algorithm and the Bayesian method is employed. Furthermore, the Schwarz Information Criterion (SIC) isutilized to identify critical change points in PV module degradation trajectories. To validate the universality andeffectiveness of the proposed method, a comparative analysis is conducted against other established life predictiontechniques for PV modules.
