A new combined model is proposed to obtain predictive data value applied in state estimation for radial power distribution networks. The time delay part of the model is calculated by a recursive least squares algorith...A new combined model is proposed to obtain predictive data value applied in state estimation for radial power distribution networks. The time delay part of the model is calculated by a recursive least squares algorithm of system identification, which can gradually forget past information. The grey series part of the model uses an equal dimension new information model (EDNIM) and it applies 3 points smoothing method to preprocess the original data and modify remnant difference by GM(1,1). Through the optimization of the coefficient of the model, we are able to minimize the error variance of predictive data. A case study shows that the proposed method achieved high calculation precision and speed and it can be used to obtain the predictive value in real time state estimation of power distribution networks.展开更多
Based on the comparison of several methods of time series predicting, this paper points out that it is necessary to use dynamic neural network in modeling of complex production process. Because self feedback and mutua...Based on the comparison of several methods of time series predicting, this paper points out that it is necessary to use dynamic neural network in modeling of complex production process. Because self feedback and mutual feedback are adopted among nodes at the same layer in Elman network, it has stronger ability of dynamic approximation, and can describe any non linear dynamic system. After the structure and mathematical description being given, dynamic back propagation (BP) algorithm of training weights of Elman neural network is deduced. At last, the network is used to predict ash content of black amber in jigging production process. The results show that this neural network is powerful in predicting and suitable for modeling, predicting, and controling of complex production process.展开更多
Objective To develop an onset risk prediction nomogram for patients with homocysteine-type(H-type)hypertension(HTH)based on pulse diagram parameters to assist early clinical prediction and diagnosis of HTH.Methods Pat...Objective To develop an onset risk prediction nomogram for patients with homocysteine-type(H-type)hypertension(HTH)based on pulse diagram parameters to assist early clinical prediction and diagnosis of HTH.Methods Patients diagnosed with essential hypertension and admitted to Shanghai Shuguang Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai University of Traditional Chinese Medicine,Shang-hai Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine,and Shanghai Hospital of Integrated Tradition-al Chinese and Western Medicine from July 6th 2020 to June 16th 2021,and from August 11th 2023 to January 22nd 2024,were enrolled in this retrospective research.The baselines and clinical biochemical indicators of patients were collected.The SMART-I TCM pulse instru-ment was applied to gather pulse diagram parameters.Multivariate logistic regression was adopted to analyze the risk factors for HTH.RStudio was employed to construct the nomo-gram model,receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve,and calibration curve(bootstrap self-sampling 200 times),and clinical decision curve were drawn to evaluate the model’s dis-crimination and clinical effectiveness.Results A total of 168 hospitalized patients with essential hypertension were selected and di-vided into non-HTH group(n=29)and HTH group(n=139).Compared with non-HTH group,HTH group had a lower body mass index(BMI),and higher proportions of male pa-tients and drinkers(P<0.05).The ventricular wall thickening(VWT)could not be deter-mined.The proportions of left common carotid intima-media wall thickness(LCCIMWT)and serum creatinine(SCR)were higher in HTH group(P<0.05).The pulse diagram parameter As was significantly higher,and H4/H1 and T1/T were lower in HTH group(P<0.05).Gender,al-cohol consumption,serum creatinine,and the pulse diagram parameter H4/H1 were identi-fied as independent risk factors for HTH(P<0.05).The nomogram’s area under the ROC curve(AUC)was 0.795[95%confidence interval(CI):(0.7066,0.8828)],with a specificity of 0.724 and sensitivity of 0.799.After 200 times repeated bootstrap self-samplings,the calibra-tion curve showed that the simulated curve fits well with the actual curve(x^(2)=9.5002,P=0.3019).The clinical decision curve indicated that the nomogram’s applicability was optimal when the threshold for predicting HTH was between 0.38 and 1.00.Conclusion The nomogram model could be valuable for predicting the onset risk of HTH and pulse diagram parameters can facilitate early screening and prevention of HTH.展开更多
The 91 measured values of the development height of the water-conducting fracture zone(WCFZ)in deep and thick coal seam mining faces under thick loose layer conditions were collected.Five key characteristic variables ...The 91 measured values of the development height of the water-conducting fracture zone(WCFZ)in deep and thick coal seam mining faces under thick loose layer conditions were collected.Five key characteristic variables influencing the WCFZ height were identified.After removing outliers from the dataset,a Random Forest(RF)regression model optimized by the Sparrow Search Algorithm(SSA)was constructed.The hyperparameters of the RF model were iteratively optimized by minimizing the Out-of-Bag(OOB)error,resulting in the rapid deter-mination of optimal parameters.Specifically,the SSA-RF model achieved an OOB error of 0.148,with 20 de-cision trees,a maximum depth of 8,a minimum split sample size of 2,and a minimum leaf node sample size of 1.Cross-validation experiments were performed using the trained optimal model and compared against other prediction methods.The results showed that the mining height had the most significant correlation with the development height of the WCFZ.The SSA-RF model outperformed all other models,with R2 values exceeding 0.9 across the training,validation,and test datasets.Compared to other models,the SSA-RF model demonstrates a simpler structure,stronger fitting capacity,higher predictive accuracy,and superior stability and generaliza-tion ability.It also exhibits the smallest variation in relative error across datasets,indicating excellent adapt-ability to different data conditions.Furthermore,a numerical model was developed using the hydrogeological data from the 1305 working face at Wanfukou Coal Mine,Shandong Province,China,to simulate the dynamic development of the WCFZ during mining.The SSA-RF model predicted the WCFZ height to be 69.7 m,closely aligning with the PFC2D simulation result of 65 m,with an error of less than 5%.Compared to traditional methods and numerical simulations,the SSA-RF model provides more accurate predictions,showing only a 7.23% deviation from the PFC2D simulation,while traditional empirical formulas yield deviations as large as 19.97%.These results demonstrate the SSA-RF model’s superior predictive capability,reinforcing its reliability and engineering applicability for real-world mining operations.This model holds significant potential for enhancing mining safety and optimizing planning processes,offering a more accurate and efficient approach for WCFZ height prediction.展开更多
BACKGROUND The hepatic venous pressure gradient serves as a crucial parameter for assessing portal hypertension and predicting clinical decompensation in individuals with cirrhosis.However,owing to its invasive nature...BACKGROUND The hepatic venous pressure gradient serves as a crucial parameter for assessing portal hypertension and predicting clinical decompensation in individuals with cirrhosis.However,owing to its invasive nature,there has been growing interest in identifying noninvasive alternatives.Transient elastography offers a promising approach for measuring liver stiffness and spleen stiffness,which can help estimate the likelihood of decompensation in patients with chronic liver disease.AIM To investigate the predictive ability of the liver stiffness measurement(LSM)and spleen stiffness measurement(SSM)in conjunction with other noninvasive indicators for clinical decompensation in patients suffering from compensatory cirrhosis and portal hypertension.METHODS This study was a retrospective analysis of the clinical data of 200 patients who were diagnosed with viral cirrhosis and who received computed tomography,transient elastography,ultrasound,and endoscopic examinations at The Second Affiliated Hospital of Xi’an Jiaotong University between March 2020 and November 2022.Patient classification was performed in accordance with the Baveno VI consensus.The area under the curve was used to evaluate and compare the predictive accuracy across different patient groups.The diagnostic effectiveness of several models,including the liver stiffness-spleen diameter-platelet ratio,variceal risk index,aspartate aminotransferase-alanine aminotransferase ratio,Baveno Ⅵ criteria,and newly developed models,was assessed.Additionally,decision curve analysis was carried out across a range of threshold probabilities to evaluate the clinical utility of these predictive factors.RESULTS Univariate and multivariate analyses demonstrated that SSM,LSM,and the spleen length diameter(SLD)were linked to clinical decompensation in individuals with viral cirrhosis.On the basis of these findings,a predictive model was developed via logistic regression:Ln[P/(1-P)]=-4.969-0.279×SSM+0.348×LSM+0.272×SLD.The model exhibited strong performance,with an area under the curve of 0.944.At a cutoff value of 0.56,the sensitivity,specificity,positive predictive value,and negative predictive value for predicting clinical decompensation were 85.29%,88.89%,87.89%,and 86.47%,respectively.The newly developed model demonstrated enhanced accuracy in forecasting clinical decompensation among patients suffering from viral cirrhosis when compared to four previously established models.CONCLUSION Noninvasive models utilizing SSM,LSM,and SLD are effective in predicting clinical decompensation among patients with viral cirrhosis,thereby reducing the need for unnecessary hepatic venous pressure gradient testing.展开更多
Gross primary production(GPP)is closely associated with processes such as photosynthesis and transpiration within ecosystems,which is a vital component of the global carbon-water-energy cycle.Accurate prediction of GP...Gross primary production(GPP)is closely associated with processes such as photosynthesis and transpiration within ecosystems,which is a vital component of the global carbon-water-energy cycle.Accurate prediction of GPP in terrestrial ecosystems is essential for evaluating terrestrial carbon cycle processes.Machine learning(ML)models provide significant technical support in this domain.Presently,there is a deficiency of high-precision and robust GPP prediction variables and models.Challenges such as unclear contributions of predictive variables,extended model training durations,and limited robustness must be addressed.Solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence(SIF),optimized multilayer perceptron neural networks,and ensemble learning models show the potential to overcome these challenges.This study aimed to develop an optimized multilayer perceptron neural network model and an ensemble learning model,while objectively assessing the capacity of SIF to predict GPP.Identifying robust models capable of enhancing the accuracy of GPP predictions was the ultimate goal.This study utilized continuous observations of SIF and meteorological data collected from 2020 to 2021 at a designated research observation station within the Populus plantation ecosystem of the Huanghuaihai agricultural protective forest system in Henan Province,China.By optimizing and evaluating the predictive accuracy and robustness of the models across different temporal scales(half-hourly and daily scales),a multi-layer perceptron(MLP)neural network optimization model based on the back propagation(BP)neural network(BPNN)algorithm(BP/MLP)and MLP and random forest(RF)integration(MLP-RF)ensemble models were constructed,utilizing SIF as the primary predictive variable for GPP.Both the BP/MLP(half-hourly scale model R^(2)=0.885,daily scale model R^(2)=0.921)and the MLP-RF(half-hourly scale model R^(2)=0.845,daily scale model R^(2)=0.914)models showed superior accuracy compared to the BPNN(half-hourly scale model R^(2)=0.841,daily scale model R^(2)=0.918)and the traditional RF(half-hourly scale model R^(2)=0.798,daily scale model R^(2)=0.867)models,with the BP/MLP model consistently outperforming the MLP-RF model.The BP/MLP model,which was optimized through particle swarm optimization(PSO),significantly enhanced the robustness of GPP predictions on a half-hourly scale and daily scale.Considering both half-hourly scale and daily scale in the PSO-BP/MLP modeling,the four indicators,light-use efficiency(LUE),photosynthetically active radiation(PAR),absorbed photosynthetically active radiation(APAR),and the variation in SIF with NIRvP(fSIF(NIRvP)),exhibited the potential for enhancing the accuracy of GPP predictions.This study employed a series of model optimization techniques to develop a GPP prediction model with enhanced performance that objectively evaluated the contributions of the predictive variables.This approach provided an innovative and effective method for assessing the carbon cycle in terrestrial ecosystems.展开更多
BACKGROUND Laparoscopic distal pancreatectomy(LDP)has emerged as the preferred approach for both benign and malignant lesions located in the pancreatic body and tail.Nevertheless,a notable deficiency persists in the a...BACKGROUND Laparoscopic distal pancreatectomy(LDP)has emerged as the preferred approach for both benign and malignant lesions located in the pancreatic body and tail.Nevertheless,a notable deficiency persists in the absence of a standardized,procedure-specific metric for evaluating and comparing surgical quality.A composite measure termed“textbook outcome(TO)”,which encompasses key short-term endpoints,has been validated in laparoscopic pancreatoduodenectomy but has not yet been established in dedicated LDP cohorts.The definition and prediction of TO in this context could aid in facilitating cross-institutional benchmarking and fostering advancements in quality improvement.AIM To establish procedure-specific criteria for TO and identify independent predictors of TO failure in patients undergoing LDP.METHODS Consecutive patients who underwent LDP at a single high-volume pancreatic center between January 2015 and August 2022 were retrospectively analyzed.TO was defined as the absence of clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula(grade B/C),post-pancreatectomy hemorrhage(grade B/C),severe complications(Clavien-Dindo≥III),readmission within 30 days,and in-hospital or 30-day mortality.Multivariable logistic regression was employed to identify independent predictors of TO failure,and a nomogram was constructed and internally validated.RESULTS Among 405 eligible patients,286(70.6%)attained TO.Multivariable analysis revealed that female sex[odds ratio(OR)=0.62,95%confidence interval(CI):0.39-0.99]conferred a protective effect,while preoperative endoscopic ultrasound-guided fine-needle aspiration(OR=2.66,95%CI:1.05-6.73),pancreatic portal hypertension(OR=2.81,95%CI:1.06-7.45),and cystic-solid(OR=2.51,95%CI:1.34-4.69)or solid lesions(OR=1.91,95%CI:1.06-3.44)were independently associated with TO failure(all P<0.05).The derived nomogram exhibited modest discrimination and calibration when assessed in both the training and validation datasets.CONCLUSION The proposed LDP-specific definition of TO is feasible and discriminative,and the developed nomogram provides an objective tool for individualized risk assessment.展开更多
To investigate the influence of coarse aggregate parent rock properties on the elastic modulus of concrete,the mineralogical properties and stress-strain curves of granite and dolomite parent rocks,as well as the stre...To investigate the influence of coarse aggregate parent rock properties on the elastic modulus of concrete,the mineralogical properties and stress-strain curves of granite and dolomite parent rocks,as well as the strength and elastic modulus of mortar and concrete prepared with mechanism aggregates of the corresponding lithology,and the stress-strain curves of concrete were investigated.In this paper,a coarse aggregate and mortar matrix bonding assumption is proposed,and a prediction model for the elastic modulus of mortar is established by considering the lithology of the mechanism sand and the slurry components.An equivalent coarse aggregate elastic modulus model was established by considering factors such as coarse aggregate particle size,volume fraction,and mortar thickness between coarse aggregates.Based on the elastic modulus of the equivalent coarse aggregate and the remaining mortar,a prediction model for the elastic modulus of the two and three components of concrete in series and then in parallel was established,and the predicted values differed from the measured values within 10%.It is proposed that the coarse aggregate elastic modulus in highstrength concrete is the most critical factor affecting the elastic modulus of concrete,and as the coarse aggregate elastic modulus increases by 27.7%,the concrete elastic modulus increases by 19.5%.展开更多
BACKGROUND Integrating conventional ultrasound features with 2D shear wave elastography(2D-SWE)can potentially enhance preoperative hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC)predictions.AIM To develop a 2D-SWE-based predictive mod...BACKGROUND Integrating conventional ultrasound features with 2D shear wave elastography(2D-SWE)can potentially enhance preoperative hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC)predictions.AIM To develop a 2D-SWE-based predictive model for preoperative identification of HCC.METHODS A retrospective analysis of 884 patients who underwent liver resection and pathology evaluation from February 2021 to August 2023 was conducted at the Oriental Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital.The patients were divided into the modeling group(n=720)and the control group(n=164).The study included conventional ultrasound,2D-SWE,and preoperative laboratory tests.Multiple logistic regression was used to identify independent predictive factors for RESULTS In the modeling group analysis,maximal elasticity(Emax)of tumors and their peripheries,platelet count,cirrhosis,and blood flow were independent risk indicators for malignancies.These factors yielded an area under the curve of 0.77(95%confidence interval:0.73-0.81)with 84%sensitivity and 61%specificity.The model demonstrated good calibration in both the construction and validation cohorts,as shown by the calibration graph and Hosmer-Lemeshow test(P=0.683 and P=0.658,respectively).Additionally,the mean elasticity(Emean)of the tumor periphery was identified as a risk factor for microvascular invasion(MVI)in malignant liver tumors(P=0.003).Patients receiving antiviral treatment differed significantly in platelet count(P=0.002),Emax of tumors(P=0.033),Emean of tumors(P=0.042),Emax at tumor periphery(P<0.001),and Emean at tumor periphery(P=0.003).CONCLUSION 2D-SWE’s hardness value serves as a valuable marker for enhancing the preoperative diagnosis of malignant liver lesions,correlating significantly with MVI and antiviral treatment efficacy.展开更多
Soils were collected from 2-year (2-y) and 3-year (3-y) old red-pine seedling plots in two tree nurseries, Hayward in the north and Wilson in the southwestern part of Wisconsin State respectively, and equilibrated wit...Soils were collected from 2-year (2-y) and 3-year (3-y) old red-pine seedling plots in two tree nurseries, Hayward in the north and Wilson in the southwestern part of Wisconsin State respectively, and equilibrated with 0.01 M Ca(NO3)2 for soil solution Zn and Mn (solu-Zn and Mn), and with 0.01 M Ca(NO3)2+0.005 M EDTA for soil adsorbed Zn and Mn (ad-Zn and Mn). Buffering capacity of soil Zn and Mn (b-Zn and Mn) was obtained from the ratio of ad-Zn and Mn to the solu-Zn and Mn. The concerned traces in pine seedling needles (ndls), stems(sts) and roots (rts) were simultaneously measured. The results obtained show that:About 60% of solu- and ad- Zn ranged from 0.2 to 0.4 and from 1 to 2μ/g soil respectively. About 70% of b-Zn was within) 3-10.The highest content of solu-Zn compared with the lowest showed a discrepancy of more than 10-fold. The two forms of soil Zn were commonly higher in Wilson than in Hayward Nursery.About 80% of solu-, ad- and b-Mn were within 3-10, 5-5.8 μg/ g soil and 1-2 respectively. Influence of low buffering capacity on solu-Zn and Mn was about 20 times stronger than that of the high.The E-value, a ratio of accumulated Zn and Mn in needles to those in the soil solution, is proved to be: E-Zn > E-Mn;E-sts> E-ndls or E-rts; and E-2y > E-3y.Curvilinear and/ or linear correlations between soil solu-, ad- and b-Zn and Mn and ndls-, sts-, rts-Zn and Mn were at very significant or significant levels.For predicting ndls-Zn and Mn, two realizable and simple models from two regression equations were established through the selection of related parameters and dependent variables. Binary regression analysis basically eliminated the influence of soil pH on the prediction of Zn and Mn in needles. Soil pH was thus thought to be excluded from the model.展开更多
BACKGROUND Colorectal cancer is a common digestive cancer worldwide.As a comprehensive treatment for locally advanced rectal cancer(LARC),neoadjuvant therapy(NT)has been increasingly used as the standard treatment for...BACKGROUND Colorectal cancer is a common digestive cancer worldwide.As a comprehensive treatment for locally advanced rectal cancer(LARC),neoadjuvant therapy(NT)has been increasingly used as the standard treatment for clinical stage II/III rectal cancer.However,few patients achieve a complete pathological response,and most patients require surgical resection and adjuvant therapy.Therefore,identifying risk factors and developing accurate models to predict the prognosis of LARC patients are of great clinical significance.AIM To establish effective prognostic nomograms and risk score prediction models to predict overall survival(OS)and disease-free survival(DFS)for LARC treated with NT.METHODS Nomograms and risk factor score prediction models were based on patients who received NT at the Cancer Hospital from 2015 to 2017.The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model were utilized to screen for prognostic risk factors,which were validated by the Cox regression method.Assessment of the performance of the two prediction models was conducted using receiver operating characteristic curves,and that of the two nomograms was conducted by calculating the concordance index(C-index)and calibration curves.The results were validated in a cohort of 65 patients from 2015 to 2017.RESULTS Seven features were significantly associated with OS and were included in the OS prediction nomogram and prediction model:Vascular_tumors_bolt,cancer nodules,yN,body mass index,matchmouth distance from the edge,nerve aggression and postoperative carcinoembryonic antigen.The nomogram showed good predictive value for OS,with a C-index of 0.91(95%CI:0.85,0.97)and good calibration.In the validation cohort,the C-index was 0.69(95%CI:0.53,0.84).The risk factor prediction model showed good predictive value.The areas under the curve for 3-and 5-year survival were 0.811 and 0.782.The nomogram for predicting DFS included ypTNM and nerve aggression and showed good calibration and a C-index of 0.77(95%CI:0.69,0.85).In the validation cohort,the C-index was 0.71(95%CI:0.61,0.81).The prediction model for DFS also had good predictive value,with an AUC for 3-year survival of 0.784 and an AUC for 5-year survival of 0.754.CONCLUSION We established accurate nomograms and prediction models for predicting OS and DFS in patients with LARC after undergoing NT.展开更多
To reduce the uncertainty associated with the traditional definition of tunnel boring machine(TBM)utilization(U)and achieve an effective indicator of TBM performance,a new performance indicator called rock mass-relate...To reduce the uncertainty associated with the traditional definition of tunnel boring machine(TBM)utilization(U)and achieve an effective indicator of TBM performance,a new performance indicator called rock mass-related utilization(U_(r))is introduced;this variable considers only rock mass-related factors rather than all potential factors.This work aims to predict U_(r)by adopting the rock mass rating(RMR)and the moisture-dependent Cerchar abrasivity index(CAI).Substantial U_(r),RMR and CAI data are acquired from a 31.57 km northwestern Chinese water conveyance tunnel via tunnelling field recordings,geological investigations and Cerchar abrasivity tests.The moisture dependence of the CAI is explored across four lithologies:quartz schists,granites,sandstones and metamorphic andesites.The potential influences of RMR and CAI on Ur are then investigated.As the RMR increases,U_(r)initially increases and then peaks at an RMR of 56 before declining.U_(r)appears to decline with CAI.An investigation-based relation among U_(r),RMR and moisture-dependent CAI is developed for estimating U_(r).The developed relation can accurately predict U_(r)using RMR and moisture-dependent CAI in the majority of the tunnelling cases examined.This work proposes a stable indicator of TBM performance and provided a fairly accurate prediction method for this indicator.展开更多
BACKGROUND Surgical resection is the primary treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC).However,studies indicate that nearly 70%of patients experience HCC recurrence within five years following hepatectomy.The earlie...BACKGROUND Surgical resection is the primary treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC).However,studies indicate that nearly 70%of patients experience HCC recurrence within five years following hepatectomy.The earlier the recurrence,the worse the prognosis.Current studies on postoperative recurrence primarily rely on postoperative pathology and patient clinical data,which are lagging.Hence,developing a new pre-operative prediction model for postoperative recurrence is crucial for guiding individualized treatment of HCC patients and enhancing their prognosis.AIM To identify key variables in pre-operative clinical and imaging data using machine learning algorithms to construct multiple risk prediction models for early postoperative recurrence of HCC.METHODS The demographic and clinical data of 371 HCC patients were collected for this retrospective study.These data were randomly divided into training and test sets at a ratio of 8:2.The training set was analyzed,and key feature variables with predictive value for early HCC recurrence were selected to construct six different machine learning prediction models.Each model was evaluated,and the bestperforming model was selected for interpreting the importance of each variable.Finally,an online calculator based on the model was generated for daily clinical practice.RESULTS Following machine learning analysis,eight key feature variables(age,intratumoral arteries,alpha-fetoprotein,preoperative blood glucose,number of tumors,glucose-to-lymphocyte ratio,liver cirrhosis,and pre-operative platelets)were selected to construct six different prediction models.The XGBoost model outperformed other models,with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve in the training,validation,and test datasets being 0.993(95%confidence interval:0.982-1.000),0.734(0.601-0.867),and 0.706(0.585-0.827),respectively.Calibration curve and decision curve analysis indicated that the XGBoost model also had good predictive performance and clinical application value.CONCLUSION The XGBoost model exhibits superior performance and is a reliable tool for predicting early postoperative HCC recurrence.This model may guide surgical strategies and postoperative individualized medicine.展开更多
BACKGROUND Acute bleeding due to esophageal varices(EVs)is a life-threatening complication in patients with cirrhosis.The diagnosis of EVs is mainly through upper gastrointestinal endoscopy,but the discomfort,contrain...BACKGROUND Acute bleeding due to esophageal varices(EVs)is a life-threatening complication in patients with cirrhosis.The diagnosis of EVs is mainly through upper gastrointestinal endoscopy,but the discomfort,contraindications and complications of gastrointestinal endoscopic screening reduce patient compliance.According to the bleeding risk of EVs,the Baveno VI consensus divides varices into high bleeding risk EVs(HEVs)and low bleeding risk EVs(LEVs).We sought to identify a non-invasive prediction model based on spleen stiffness measurement(SSM)and liver stiffness measurement(LSM)as an alternative to EVs screening.AIM To develop a safe,simple and non-invasive model to predict HEVs in patients with viral cirrhosis and identify patients who can be exempted from upper gastrointestinal endoscopy.METHODS Data from 200 patients with viral cirrhosis were included in this study,with 140 patients as the modelling group and 60 patients as the external validation group,and the EVs types of patients were determined by upper gastrointestinal endoscopy and the Baveno Ⅵ consensus.Those patients were divided into the HEVs group(66 patients)and the LEVs group(74 patients).The effect of each parameter on HEVs was analyzed by univariate and multivariate analyses,and a noninvasive prediction model was established.Finally,the discrimination ability,calibration ability and clinical efficacy of the new model were verified in the modelling group and the external validation group.RESULTS Univariate and multivariate analyses showed that SSM and LSM were associated with the occurrence of HEVs in patients with viral cirrhosis.On this basis,logistic regression analysis was used to construct a prediction model:Ln[P/(1-P)]=-8.184-0.228×SSM+0.642×LSM.The area under the curve of the new model was 0.965.When the cut-off value was 0.27,the sensitivity,specificity,positive predictive value and negative predictive value of the model for predicting HEVs were 100.00%,82.43%,83.52%,and 100%,respectively.Compared with the four prediction models of liver stiffness-spleen diameter to platelet ratio score,variceal risk index,aspartate aminotransferase to alanine aminotransferase ratio,and Baveno VI,the established model can better predict HEVs in patients with viral cirrhosis.CONCLUSION Based on the SSM and LSM measured by transient elastography,we established a non-invasive prediction model for HEVs.The new model is reliable in predicting HEVs and can be used as an alternative to routine upper gastrointestinal endoscopy screening,which is helpful for clinical decision making.展开更多
After the excavation of the roadway,the original stress balance is destroyed,resulting in the redistribution of stress and the formation of an excavation damaged zone(EDZ)around the roadway.The thickness of EDZ is the...After the excavation of the roadway,the original stress balance is destroyed,resulting in the redistribution of stress and the formation of an excavation damaged zone(EDZ)around the roadway.The thickness of EDZ is the key basis for roadway stability discrimination and support structure design,and it is of great engineering significance to accurately predict the thickness of EDZ.Considering the advantages of machine learning(ML)in dealing with high-dimensional,nonlinear problems,a hybrid prediction model based on the random forest(RF)algorithm is developed in this paper.The model used the dragonfly algorithm(DA)to optimize two hyperparameters in RF,namely mtry and ntree,and used mean absolute error(MAE),rootmean square error(RMSE),determination coefficient(R^(2)),and variance accounted for(VAF)to evaluatemodel prediction performance.A database containing 217 sets of data was collected,with embedding depth(ED),drift span(DS),surrounding rock mass strength(RMS),joint index(JI)as input variables,and the excavation damaged zone thickness(EDZT)as output variable.In addition,four classic models,back propagation neural network(BPNN),extreme learning machine(ELM),radial basis function network(RBF),and RF were compared with the DA-RF model.The results showed that the DARF mold had the best prediction performance(training set:MAE=0.1036,RMSE=0.1514,R^(2)=0.9577,VAF=94.2645;test set:MAE=0.1115,RMSE=0.1417,R^(2)=0.9423,VAF=94.0836).The results of the sensitivity analysis showed that the relative importance of each input variable was DS,ED,RMS,and JI from low to high.展开更多
BACKGROUND Assessment of liver reserve function(LRF)is essential for predicting the prognosis of patients with chronic liver disease(CLD)and determines the extent of liver resection in patients with hepatocellular car...BACKGROUND Assessment of liver reserve function(LRF)is essential for predicting the prognosis of patients with chronic liver disease(CLD)and determines the extent of liver resection in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma.AIM To establish noninvasive models for LRF assessment based on liver stiffness measurement(LSM)and to evaluate their clinical performance.METHODS A total of 360 patients with compensated CLD were retrospectively analyzed as the training cohort.The new predictive models were established through logistic regression analysis and were validated internally in a prospective cohort(132 patients).RESULTS Our study defined indocyanine green retention rate at 15 min(ICGR15)≥10%as mildly impaired LRF and ICGR15≥20%as severely impaired LRF.We constructed predictive models of LRF,named the mLPaM and sLPaM,which involved only LSM,prothrombin time international normalized ratio to albumin ratio(PTAR),age and model for end-stage liver disease(MELD).The area under the curve of the mLPaM model(0.855,0.872,respectively)and sLPaM model(0.869,0.876,respectively)were higher than that of the methods for MELD,albumin bilirubin grade and PTAR in the two cohorts,and their sensitivity and negative predictive value were the highest among these methods in the training cohort.In addition,the new models showed good sensitivity and accuracy for the diagnosis of LRF impairment in the validation cohort.CONCLUSION The new models had a good predictive performance for LRF and could replace the indocyanine green(ICG)clearance test,especially in patients who are unable to undergo ICG testing.展开更多
Background The vasovagal reflex syndrome （VVRS） is common in the patiems undergoing percutaneous coronary intervemion （PCI） However, prediction and prevention of the risk for the VVRS have not been completely fulf...Background The vasovagal reflex syndrome （VVRS） is common in the patiems undergoing percutaneous coronary intervemion （PCI） However, prediction and prevention of the risk for the VVRS have not been completely fulfilled. This study was conducted to develop a Risk Prediction Score Model to identify the determinants of VVRS in a large Chinese population cohort receiving PCI. Methods From the hos- pital electronic medical database, we idemified 3550 patients who received PCI （78.0% males, mean age 60 years） in Chinese PLA General Hospital from January 1, 2000 to August 30, 2016. The multivariate analysis and receiver operating characteristic 01OC） analysis were performed. Results The adverse events of VVRS in the patients were significantly increased after PCI procedure than before the operation （all P 〈 0.001）. The rate of VVRS [95% confidence interval （CI）] in patients receiving PCI was 4.5% （4.1%-5.6%）. Compared to the patients suffering no VVRS, incidence of VVRS involved the following factors, namely female gender, primary PCI, hypertension, over two stems im- plantation in the left anterior descending （LAD）, and the femoral puncture site. The multivariate analysis suggested that they were independ- ent risk factors for predicting the incidence of VVRS （all P 〈 0.001）. We developed a risk prediction score model for VVRS. ROC analysis showed that the risk prediction score model was effectively predictive of the incidence of VVRS in patients receiving PCI （c-statistic 0.76, 95% CI： 0.72-0.79, P 〈 0.001）. There were decreased evems of VVRS in the patients receiving PCI whose diastolic blood pressure dropped by more than 30 mmHg and heart rate reduced by 10 times per minute （AUC： 0.84, 95% CI： 0.81-0.87, P 〈 0.001）. Conclusion The risk prediction score is quite efficient in predicting the incidence of VVRS in patients receiving PCI. In which, the following factors may be in- volved, the femoral puncture site, female gender, hypertension, primary PCI, and over 2 stents implanted in LAD.展开更多
An Xtreme Gradient Boosting(XGBoost)-based endpoint hydrogen content prediction model was proposed for the electroslag remelting process,the data collected in the field were pre-processed,and the characteristic variab...An Xtreme Gradient Boosting(XGBoost)-based endpoint hydrogen content prediction model was proposed for the electroslag remelting process,the data collected in the field were pre-processed,and the characteristic variables of the physical parameters related to the variation of hydrogen content in the electroslag remelting process were selected by machine learning analysis and metallurgical mechanism.The kernel ridge regression model,ridge regression model,XGBoost model,support vector regression model and gradient boosting regression model were developed and validated using the electroslag remelting data collected from the steel mills,and the model structure and parameters were adjusted several times.The prediction accuracy of hydrogen content was compared horizontally.The XGBoost model was validated for the test set with the following hit rates:70.59%,82.35% and 100% for the endpoint hits at the allowable hydrogen content error of ±0.05×10^(-6),±0.10×10^(-6) and ±0.50×10^(-6),respectively.展开更多
To improve the naphtha composition prediction model based on molecular type homologous series matrix （MTHS）, this paper puts forward a novel molecular matrix to characterize the naphtha composition and the norreal d...To improve the naphtha composition prediction model based on molecular type homologous series matrix （MTHS）, this paper puts forward a novel molecular matrix to characterize the naphtha composition and the norreal distribution hypothesis to better describe the molecular composition distribution within each homologous series of the molecular matrix. Through prediction calculation of eight groups of naphtha samples and eight groups of gasoline samples, it is verified that the normal distribution hypothesis is more applicable than gamma distribution hypothesis for the prediction model. According to the prediction results of the samples, the restrain range of normal distribution parameters during model computing process is summarized. With the bulk properties of naphtha samples and the value range of distribution parameters as input conditions, this study utilizes the improved novel molecular matrix to predict the composition of naphtha samples. As the results show, the novel molecular matrix can predict more detailed composition information of naphtha and improve prediction accuracy with less unknown parameters.展开更多
Settlement prediction of geosynthetic-reinforced soil(GRS)abutments under service loading conditions is an arduous and challenging task for practicing geotechnical/civil engineers.Hence,in this paper,a novel hybrid ar...Settlement prediction of geosynthetic-reinforced soil(GRS)abutments under service loading conditions is an arduous and challenging task for practicing geotechnical/civil engineers.Hence,in this paper,a novel hybrid artificial intelligence(AI)-based model was developed by the combination of artificial neural network(ANN)and Harris hawks’optimisation(HHO),that is,ANN-HHO,to predict the settlement of the GRS abutments.Five other robust intelligent models such as support vector regression(SVR),Gaussian process regression(GPR),relevance vector machine(RVM),sequential minimal optimisation regression(SMOR),and least-median square regression(LMSR)were constructed and compared to the ANN-HHO model.The predictive strength,relalibility and robustness of the model were evaluated based on rigorous statistical testing,ranking criteria,multi-criteria approach,uncertainity analysis and sensitivity analysis(SA).Moreover,the predictive veracity of the model was also substantiated against several large-scale independent experimental studies on GRS abutments reported in the scientific literature.The acquired findings demonstrated that the ANN-HHO model predicted the settlement of GRS abutments with reasonable accuracy and yielded superior performance in comparison to counterpart models.Therefore,it becomes one of predictive tools employed by geotechnical/civil engineers in preliminary decision-making when investigating the in-service performance of GRS abutments.Finally,the model has been converted into a simple mathematical formulation for easy hand calculations,and it is proved cost-effective and less time-consuming in comparison to experimental tests and numerical simulations.展开更多
文摘A new combined model is proposed to obtain predictive data value applied in state estimation for radial power distribution networks. The time delay part of the model is calculated by a recursive least squares algorithm of system identification, which can gradually forget past information. The grey series part of the model uses an equal dimension new information model (EDNIM) and it applies 3 points smoothing method to preprocess the original data and modify remnant difference by GM(1,1). Through the optimization of the coefficient of the model, we are able to minimize the error variance of predictive data. A case study shows that the proposed method achieved high calculation precision and speed and it can be used to obtain the predictive value in real time state estimation of power distribution networks.
文摘Based on the comparison of several methods of time series predicting, this paper points out that it is necessary to use dynamic neural network in modeling of complex production process. Because self feedback and mutual feedback are adopted among nodes at the same layer in Elman network, it has stronger ability of dynamic approximation, and can describe any non linear dynamic system. After the structure and mathematical description being given, dynamic back propagation (BP) algorithm of training weights of Elman neural network is deduced. At last, the network is used to predict ash content of black amber in jigging production process. The results show that this neural network is powerful in predicting and suitable for modeling, predicting, and controling of complex production process.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China (81973749 and 8143594)State Administration of Traditional Chinese Medicine High-level Chinese Medicine Key Discipline Construction Project (zyyzdxk-2023069)。
文摘Objective To develop an onset risk prediction nomogram for patients with homocysteine-type(H-type)hypertension(HTH)based on pulse diagram parameters to assist early clinical prediction and diagnosis of HTH.Methods Patients diagnosed with essential hypertension and admitted to Shanghai Shuguang Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai University of Traditional Chinese Medicine,Shang-hai Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine,and Shanghai Hospital of Integrated Tradition-al Chinese and Western Medicine from July 6th 2020 to June 16th 2021,and from August 11th 2023 to January 22nd 2024,were enrolled in this retrospective research.The baselines and clinical biochemical indicators of patients were collected.The SMART-I TCM pulse instru-ment was applied to gather pulse diagram parameters.Multivariate logistic regression was adopted to analyze the risk factors for HTH.RStudio was employed to construct the nomo-gram model,receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve,and calibration curve(bootstrap self-sampling 200 times),and clinical decision curve were drawn to evaluate the model’s dis-crimination and clinical effectiveness.Results A total of 168 hospitalized patients with essential hypertension were selected and di-vided into non-HTH group(n=29)and HTH group(n=139).Compared with non-HTH group,HTH group had a lower body mass index(BMI),and higher proportions of male pa-tients and drinkers(P<0.05).The ventricular wall thickening(VWT)could not be deter-mined.The proportions of left common carotid intima-media wall thickness(LCCIMWT)and serum creatinine(SCR)were higher in HTH group(P<0.05).The pulse diagram parameter As was significantly higher,and H4/H1 and T1/T were lower in HTH group(P<0.05).Gender,al-cohol consumption,serum creatinine,and the pulse diagram parameter H4/H1 were identi-fied as independent risk factors for HTH(P<0.05).The nomogram’s area under the ROC curve(AUC)was 0.795[95%confidence interval(CI):(0.7066,0.8828)],with a specificity of 0.724 and sensitivity of 0.799.After 200 times repeated bootstrap self-samplings,the calibra-tion curve showed that the simulated curve fits well with the actual curve(x^(2)=9.5002,P=0.3019).The clinical decision curve indicated that the nomogram’s applicability was optimal when the threshold for predicting HTH was between 0.38 and 1.00.Conclusion The nomogram model could be valuable for predicting the onset risk of HTH and pulse diagram parameters can facilitate early screening and prevention of HTH.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(51774199)the project of the educational department of Liaoning Province(No LJKMZ20220825).
文摘The 91 measured values of the development height of the water-conducting fracture zone(WCFZ)in deep and thick coal seam mining faces under thick loose layer conditions were collected.Five key characteristic variables influencing the WCFZ height were identified.After removing outliers from the dataset,a Random Forest(RF)regression model optimized by the Sparrow Search Algorithm(SSA)was constructed.The hyperparameters of the RF model were iteratively optimized by minimizing the Out-of-Bag(OOB)error,resulting in the rapid deter-mination of optimal parameters.Specifically,the SSA-RF model achieved an OOB error of 0.148,with 20 de-cision trees,a maximum depth of 8,a minimum split sample size of 2,and a minimum leaf node sample size of 1.Cross-validation experiments were performed using the trained optimal model and compared against other prediction methods.The results showed that the mining height had the most significant correlation with the development height of the WCFZ.The SSA-RF model outperformed all other models,with R2 values exceeding 0.9 across the training,validation,and test datasets.Compared to other models,the SSA-RF model demonstrates a simpler structure,stronger fitting capacity,higher predictive accuracy,and superior stability and generaliza-tion ability.It also exhibits the smallest variation in relative error across datasets,indicating excellent adapt-ability to different data conditions.Furthermore,a numerical model was developed using the hydrogeological data from the 1305 working face at Wanfukou Coal Mine,Shandong Province,China,to simulate the dynamic development of the WCFZ during mining.The SSA-RF model predicted the WCFZ height to be 69.7 m,closely aligning with the PFC2D simulation result of 65 m,with an error of less than 5%.Compared to traditional methods and numerical simulations,the SSA-RF model provides more accurate predictions,showing only a 7.23% deviation from the PFC2D simulation,while traditional empirical formulas yield deviations as large as 19.97%.These results demonstrate the SSA-RF model’s superior predictive capability,reinforcing its reliability and engineering applicability for real-world mining operations.This model holds significant potential for enhancing mining safety and optimizing planning processes,offering a more accurate and efficient approach for WCFZ height prediction.
基金Supported by Xi’an Science and Technology Plan,No.23YXYJ0172.
文摘BACKGROUND The hepatic venous pressure gradient serves as a crucial parameter for assessing portal hypertension and predicting clinical decompensation in individuals with cirrhosis.However,owing to its invasive nature,there has been growing interest in identifying noninvasive alternatives.Transient elastography offers a promising approach for measuring liver stiffness and spleen stiffness,which can help estimate the likelihood of decompensation in patients with chronic liver disease.AIM To investigate the predictive ability of the liver stiffness measurement(LSM)and spleen stiffness measurement(SSM)in conjunction with other noninvasive indicators for clinical decompensation in patients suffering from compensatory cirrhosis and portal hypertension.METHODS This study was a retrospective analysis of the clinical data of 200 patients who were diagnosed with viral cirrhosis and who received computed tomography,transient elastography,ultrasound,and endoscopic examinations at The Second Affiliated Hospital of Xi’an Jiaotong University between March 2020 and November 2022.Patient classification was performed in accordance with the Baveno VI consensus.The area under the curve was used to evaluate and compare the predictive accuracy across different patient groups.The diagnostic effectiveness of several models,including the liver stiffness-spleen diameter-platelet ratio,variceal risk index,aspartate aminotransferase-alanine aminotransferase ratio,Baveno Ⅵ criteria,and newly developed models,was assessed.Additionally,decision curve analysis was carried out across a range of threshold probabilities to evaluate the clinical utility of these predictive factors.RESULTS Univariate and multivariate analyses demonstrated that SSM,LSM,and the spleen length diameter(SLD)were linked to clinical decompensation in individuals with viral cirrhosis.On the basis of these findings,a predictive model was developed via logistic regression:Ln[P/(1-P)]=-4.969-0.279×SSM+0.348×LSM+0.272×SLD.The model exhibited strong performance,with an area under the curve of 0.944.At a cutoff value of 0.56,the sensitivity,specificity,positive predictive value,and negative predictive value for predicting clinical decompensation were 85.29%,88.89%,87.89%,and 86.47%,respectively.The newly developed model demonstrated enhanced accuracy in forecasting clinical decompensation among patients suffering from viral cirrhosis when compared to four previously established models.CONCLUSION Noninvasive models utilizing SSM,LSM,and SLD are effective in predicting clinical decompensation among patients with viral cirrhosis,thereby reducing the need for unnecessary hepatic venous pressure gradient testing.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(No.2023YFD2200400-01)the Fundamental Scientific Research Operation of Central-level Public Welfare Scientific Research Institutes(No.CAFYBB2023MA001).
文摘Gross primary production(GPP)is closely associated with processes such as photosynthesis and transpiration within ecosystems,which is a vital component of the global carbon-water-energy cycle.Accurate prediction of GPP in terrestrial ecosystems is essential for evaluating terrestrial carbon cycle processes.Machine learning(ML)models provide significant technical support in this domain.Presently,there is a deficiency of high-precision and robust GPP prediction variables and models.Challenges such as unclear contributions of predictive variables,extended model training durations,and limited robustness must be addressed.Solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence(SIF),optimized multilayer perceptron neural networks,and ensemble learning models show the potential to overcome these challenges.This study aimed to develop an optimized multilayer perceptron neural network model and an ensemble learning model,while objectively assessing the capacity of SIF to predict GPP.Identifying robust models capable of enhancing the accuracy of GPP predictions was the ultimate goal.This study utilized continuous observations of SIF and meteorological data collected from 2020 to 2021 at a designated research observation station within the Populus plantation ecosystem of the Huanghuaihai agricultural protective forest system in Henan Province,China.By optimizing and evaluating the predictive accuracy and robustness of the models across different temporal scales(half-hourly and daily scales),a multi-layer perceptron(MLP)neural network optimization model based on the back propagation(BP)neural network(BPNN)algorithm(BP/MLP)and MLP and random forest(RF)integration(MLP-RF)ensemble models were constructed,utilizing SIF as the primary predictive variable for GPP.Both the BP/MLP(half-hourly scale model R^(2)=0.885,daily scale model R^(2)=0.921)and the MLP-RF(half-hourly scale model R^(2)=0.845,daily scale model R^(2)=0.914)models showed superior accuracy compared to the BPNN(half-hourly scale model R^(2)=0.841,daily scale model R^(2)=0.918)and the traditional RF(half-hourly scale model R^(2)=0.798,daily scale model R^(2)=0.867)models,with the BP/MLP model consistently outperforming the MLP-RF model.The BP/MLP model,which was optimized through particle swarm optimization(PSO),significantly enhanced the robustness of GPP predictions on a half-hourly scale and daily scale.Considering both half-hourly scale and daily scale in the PSO-BP/MLP modeling,the four indicators,light-use efficiency(LUE),photosynthetically active radiation(PAR),absorbed photosynthetically active radiation(APAR),and the variation in SIF with NIRvP(fSIF(NIRvP)),exhibited the potential for enhancing the accuracy of GPP predictions.This study employed a series of model optimization techniques to develop a GPP prediction model with enhanced performance that objectively evaluated the contributions of the predictive variables.This approach provided an innovative and effective method for assessing the carbon cycle in terrestrial ecosystems.
文摘BACKGROUND Laparoscopic distal pancreatectomy(LDP)has emerged as the preferred approach for both benign and malignant lesions located in the pancreatic body and tail.Nevertheless,a notable deficiency persists in the absence of a standardized,procedure-specific metric for evaluating and comparing surgical quality.A composite measure termed“textbook outcome(TO)”,which encompasses key short-term endpoints,has been validated in laparoscopic pancreatoduodenectomy but has not yet been established in dedicated LDP cohorts.The definition and prediction of TO in this context could aid in facilitating cross-institutional benchmarking and fostering advancements in quality improvement.AIM To establish procedure-specific criteria for TO and identify independent predictors of TO failure in patients undergoing LDP.METHODS Consecutive patients who underwent LDP at a single high-volume pancreatic center between January 2015 and August 2022 were retrospectively analyzed.TO was defined as the absence of clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula(grade B/C),post-pancreatectomy hemorrhage(grade B/C),severe complications(Clavien-Dindo≥III),readmission within 30 days,and in-hospital or 30-day mortality.Multivariable logistic regression was employed to identify independent predictors of TO failure,and a nomogram was constructed and internally validated.RESULTS Among 405 eligible patients,286(70.6%)attained TO.Multivariable analysis revealed that female sex[odds ratio(OR)=0.62,95%confidence interval(CI):0.39-0.99]conferred a protective effect,while preoperative endoscopic ultrasound-guided fine-needle aspiration(OR=2.66,95%CI:1.05-6.73),pancreatic portal hypertension(OR=2.81,95%CI:1.06-7.45),and cystic-solid(OR=2.51,95%CI:1.34-4.69)or solid lesions(OR=1.91,95%CI:1.06-3.44)were independently associated with TO failure(all P<0.05).The derived nomogram exhibited modest discrimination and calibration when assessed in both the training and validation datasets.CONCLUSION The proposed LDP-specific definition of TO is feasible and discriminative,and the developed nomogram provides an objective tool for individualized risk assessment.
基金Funded by State Railway Administration Research Project(No.2023JS007)National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52438002)+1 种基金Research and Development Programs for Science and Technology of China Railways Corporation(No.J2023G003)New Cornerstone Science Foundation through the XPLORER PRIZE。
文摘To investigate the influence of coarse aggregate parent rock properties on the elastic modulus of concrete,the mineralogical properties and stress-strain curves of granite and dolomite parent rocks,as well as the strength and elastic modulus of mortar and concrete prepared with mechanism aggregates of the corresponding lithology,and the stress-strain curves of concrete were investigated.In this paper,a coarse aggregate and mortar matrix bonding assumption is proposed,and a prediction model for the elastic modulus of mortar is established by considering the lithology of the mechanism sand and the slurry components.An equivalent coarse aggregate elastic modulus model was established by considering factors such as coarse aggregate particle size,volume fraction,and mortar thickness between coarse aggregates.Based on the elastic modulus of the equivalent coarse aggregate and the remaining mortar,a prediction model for the elastic modulus of the two and three components of concrete in series and then in parallel was established,and the predicted values differed from the measured values within 10%.It is proposed that the coarse aggregate elastic modulus in highstrength concrete is the most critical factor affecting the elastic modulus of concrete,and as the coarse aggregate elastic modulus increases by 27.7%,the concrete elastic modulus increases by 19.5%.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China Youth Training Project,No.2021GZR003and Medical-engineering Interdisciplinary Research Youth Training Project,No.2022YGJC001.
文摘BACKGROUND Integrating conventional ultrasound features with 2D shear wave elastography(2D-SWE)can potentially enhance preoperative hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC)predictions.AIM To develop a 2D-SWE-based predictive model for preoperative identification of HCC.METHODS A retrospective analysis of 884 patients who underwent liver resection and pathology evaluation from February 2021 to August 2023 was conducted at the Oriental Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital.The patients were divided into the modeling group(n=720)and the control group(n=164).The study included conventional ultrasound,2D-SWE,and preoperative laboratory tests.Multiple logistic regression was used to identify independent predictive factors for RESULTS In the modeling group analysis,maximal elasticity(Emax)of tumors and their peripheries,platelet count,cirrhosis,and blood flow were independent risk indicators for malignancies.These factors yielded an area under the curve of 0.77(95%confidence interval:0.73-0.81)with 84%sensitivity and 61%specificity.The model demonstrated good calibration in both the construction and validation cohorts,as shown by the calibration graph and Hosmer-Lemeshow test(P=0.683 and P=0.658,respectively).Additionally,the mean elasticity(Emean)of the tumor periphery was identified as a risk factor for microvascular invasion(MVI)in malignant liver tumors(P=0.003).Patients receiving antiviral treatment differed significantly in platelet count(P=0.002),Emax of tumors(P=0.033),Emean of tumors(P=0.042),Emax at tumor periphery(P<0.001),and Emean at tumor periphery(P=0.003).CONCLUSION 2D-SWE’s hardness value serves as a valuable marker for enhancing the preoperative diagnosis of malignant liver lesions,correlating significantly with MVI and antiviral treatment efficacy.
文摘Soils were collected from 2-year (2-y) and 3-year (3-y) old red-pine seedling plots in two tree nurseries, Hayward in the north and Wilson in the southwestern part of Wisconsin State respectively, and equilibrated with 0.01 M Ca(NO3)2 for soil solution Zn and Mn (solu-Zn and Mn), and with 0.01 M Ca(NO3)2+0.005 M EDTA for soil adsorbed Zn and Mn (ad-Zn and Mn). Buffering capacity of soil Zn and Mn (b-Zn and Mn) was obtained from the ratio of ad-Zn and Mn to the solu-Zn and Mn. The concerned traces in pine seedling needles (ndls), stems(sts) and roots (rts) were simultaneously measured. The results obtained show that:About 60% of solu- and ad- Zn ranged from 0.2 to 0.4 and from 1 to 2μ/g soil respectively. About 70% of b-Zn was within) 3-10.The highest content of solu-Zn compared with the lowest showed a discrepancy of more than 10-fold. The two forms of soil Zn were commonly higher in Wilson than in Hayward Nursery.About 80% of solu-, ad- and b-Mn were within 3-10, 5-5.8 μg/ g soil and 1-2 respectively. Influence of low buffering capacity on solu-Zn and Mn was about 20 times stronger than that of the high.The E-value, a ratio of accumulated Zn and Mn in needles to those in the soil solution, is proved to be: E-Zn > E-Mn;E-sts> E-ndls or E-rts; and E-2y > E-3y.Curvilinear and/ or linear correlations between soil solu-, ad- and b-Zn and Mn and ndls-, sts-, rts-Zn and Mn were at very significant or significant levels.For predicting ndls-Zn and Mn, two realizable and simple models from two regression equations were established through the selection of related parameters and dependent variables. Binary regression analysis basically eliminated the influence of soil pH on the prediction of Zn and Mn in needles. Soil pH was thus thought to be excluded from the model.
文摘BACKGROUND Colorectal cancer is a common digestive cancer worldwide.As a comprehensive treatment for locally advanced rectal cancer(LARC),neoadjuvant therapy(NT)has been increasingly used as the standard treatment for clinical stage II/III rectal cancer.However,few patients achieve a complete pathological response,and most patients require surgical resection and adjuvant therapy.Therefore,identifying risk factors and developing accurate models to predict the prognosis of LARC patients are of great clinical significance.AIM To establish effective prognostic nomograms and risk score prediction models to predict overall survival(OS)and disease-free survival(DFS)for LARC treated with NT.METHODS Nomograms and risk factor score prediction models were based on patients who received NT at the Cancer Hospital from 2015 to 2017.The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model were utilized to screen for prognostic risk factors,which were validated by the Cox regression method.Assessment of the performance of the two prediction models was conducted using receiver operating characteristic curves,and that of the two nomograms was conducted by calculating the concordance index(C-index)and calibration curves.The results were validated in a cohort of 65 patients from 2015 to 2017.RESULTS Seven features were significantly associated with OS and were included in the OS prediction nomogram and prediction model:Vascular_tumors_bolt,cancer nodules,yN,body mass index,matchmouth distance from the edge,nerve aggression and postoperative carcinoembryonic antigen.The nomogram showed good predictive value for OS,with a C-index of 0.91(95%CI:0.85,0.97)and good calibration.In the validation cohort,the C-index was 0.69(95%CI:0.53,0.84).The risk factor prediction model showed good predictive value.The areas under the curve for 3-and 5-year survival were 0.811 and 0.782.The nomogram for predicting DFS included ypTNM and nerve aggression and showed good calibration and a C-index of 0.77(95%CI:0.69,0.85).In the validation cohort,the C-index was 0.71(95%CI:0.61,0.81).The prediction model for DFS also had good predictive value,with an AUC for 3-year survival of 0.784 and an AUC for 5-year survival of 0.754.CONCLUSION We established accurate nomograms and prediction models for predicting OS and DFS in patients with LARC after undergoing NT.
基金financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.41972270,52076198)the Key Research and Development Plan of Henan Province(No.182102210014)+2 种基金the Excellent Youth Foundation of Henan Scientific Committee(No.222300420078)the Youth Talent Promotion Project of Henan Province(No.2022HYTP019)the Open Foundation of State Key Laboratory of Shield Machine and Boring Technology(No.SKLST-2019-K06)。
文摘To reduce the uncertainty associated with the traditional definition of tunnel boring machine(TBM)utilization(U)and achieve an effective indicator of TBM performance,a new performance indicator called rock mass-related utilization(U_(r))is introduced;this variable considers only rock mass-related factors rather than all potential factors.This work aims to predict U_(r)by adopting the rock mass rating(RMR)and the moisture-dependent Cerchar abrasivity index(CAI).Substantial U_(r),RMR and CAI data are acquired from a 31.57 km northwestern Chinese water conveyance tunnel via tunnelling field recordings,geological investigations and Cerchar abrasivity tests.The moisture dependence of the CAI is explored across four lithologies:quartz schists,granites,sandstones and metamorphic andesites.The potential influences of RMR and CAI on Ur are then investigated.As the RMR increases,U_(r)initially increases and then peaks at an RMR of 56 before declining.U_(r)appears to decline with CAI.An investigation-based relation among U_(r),RMR and moisture-dependent CAI is developed for estimating U_(r).The developed relation can accurately predict U_(r)using RMR and moisture-dependent CAI in the majority of the tunnelling cases examined.This work proposes a stable indicator of TBM performance and provided a fairly accurate prediction method for this indicator.
基金Supported by Ningxia Key Research and Development Program,No.2018BEG03001.
文摘BACKGROUND Surgical resection is the primary treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC).However,studies indicate that nearly 70%of patients experience HCC recurrence within five years following hepatectomy.The earlier the recurrence,the worse the prognosis.Current studies on postoperative recurrence primarily rely on postoperative pathology and patient clinical data,which are lagging.Hence,developing a new pre-operative prediction model for postoperative recurrence is crucial for guiding individualized treatment of HCC patients and enhancing their prognosis.AIM To identify key variables in pre-operative clinical and imaging data using machine learning algorithms to construct multiple risk prediction models for early postoperative recurrence of HCC.METHODS The demographic and clinical data of 371 HCC patients were collected for this retrospective study.These data were randomly divided into training and test sets at a ratio of 8:2.The training set was analyzed,and key feature variables with predictive value for early HCC recurrence were selected to construct six different machine learning prediction models.Each model was evaluated,and the bestperforming model was selected for interpreting the importance of each variable.Finally,an online calculator based on the model was generated for daily clinical practice.RESULTS Following machine learning analysis,eight key feature variables(age,intratumoral arteries,alpha-fetoprotein,preoperative blood glucose,number of tumors,glucose-to-lymphocyte ratio,liver cirrhosis,and pre-operative platelets)were selected to construct six different prediction models.The XGBoost model outperformed other models,with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve in the training,validation,and test datasets being 0.993(95%confidence interval:0.982-1.000),0.734(0.601-0.867),and 0.706(0.585-0.827),respectively.Calibration curve and decision curve analysis indicated that the XGBoost model also had good predictive performance and clinical application value.CONCLUSION The XGBoost model exhibits superior performance and is a reliable tool for predicting early postoperative HCC recurrence.This model may guide surgical strategies and postoperative individualized medicine.
基金Supported by the Shaanxi Provincial Key Research and Development Plan,No.2020SF-159.
文摘BACKGROUND Acute bleeding due to esophageal varices(EVs)is a life-threatening complication in patients with cirrhosis.The diagnosis of EVs is mainly through upper gastrointestinal endoscopy,but the discomfort,contraindications and complications of gastrointestinal endoscopic screening reduce patient compliance.According to the bleeding risk of EVs,the Baveno VI consensus divides varices into high bleeding risk EVs(HEVs)and low bleeding risk EVs(LEVs).We sought to identify a non-invasive prediction model based on spleen stiffness measurement(SSM)and liver stiffness measurement(LSM)as an alternative to EVs screening.AIM To develop a safe,simple and non-invasive model to predict HEVs in patients with viral cirrhosis and identify patients who can be exempted from upper gastrointestinal endoscopy.METHODS Data from 200 patients with viral cirrhosis were included in this study,with 140 patients as the modelling group and 60 patients as the external validation group,and the EVs types of patients were determined by upper gastrointestinal endoscopy and the Baveno Ⅵ consensus.Those patients were divided into the HEVs group(66 patients)and the LEVs group(74 patients).The effect of each parameter on HEVs was analyzed by univariate and multivariate analyses,and a noninvasive prediction model was established.Finally,the discrimination ability,calibration ability and clinical efficacy of the new model were verified in the modelling group and the external validation group.RESULTS Univariate and multivariate analyses showed that SSM and LSM were associated with the occurrence of HEVs in patients with viral cirrhosis.On this basis,logistic regression analysis was used to construct a prediction model:Ln[P/(1-P)]=-8.184-0.228×SSM+0.642×LSM.The area under the curve of the new model was 0.965.When the cut-off value was 0.27,the sensitivity,specificity,positive predictive value and negative predictive value of the model for predicting HEVs were 100.00%,82.43%,83.52%,and 100%,respectively.Compared with the four prediction models of liver stiffness-spleen diameter to platelet ratio score,variceal risk index,aspartate aminotransferase to alanine aminotransferase ratio,and Baveno VI,the established model can better predict HEVs in patients with viral cirrhosis.CONCLUSION Based on the SSM and LSM measured by transient elastography,we established a non-invasive prediction model for HEVs.The new model is reliable in predicting HEVs and can be used as an alternative to routine upper gastrointestinal endoscopy screening,which is helpful for clinical decision making.
基金funded by the National Science Foundation of China(42177164)the Distinguished Youth Science Foundation of Hunan Province of China(2022JJ10073)the Innovation-Driven Project of Central South University(2020CX040).
文摘After the excavation of the roadway,the original stress balance is destroyed,resulting in the redistribution of stress and the formation of an excavation damaged zone(EDZ)around the roadway.The thickness of EDZ is the key basis for roadway stability discrimination and support structure design,and it is of great engineering significance to accurately predict the thickness of EDZ.Considering the advantages of machine learning(ML)in dealing with high-dimensional,nonlinear problems,a hybrid prediction model based on the random forest(RF)algorithm is developed in this paper.The model used the dragonfly algorithm(DA)to optimize two hyperparameters in RF,namely mtry and ntree,and used mean absolute error(MAE),rootmean square error(RMSE),determination coefficient(R^(2)),and variance accounted for(VAF)to evaluatemodel prediction performance.A database containing 217 sets of data was collected,with embedding depth(ED),drift span(DS),surrounding rock mass strength(RMS),joint index(JI)as input variables,and the excavation damaged zone thickness(EDZT)as output variable.In addition,four classic models,back propagation neural network(BPNN),extreme learning machine(ELM),radial basis function network(RBF),and RF were compared with the DA-RF model.The results showed that the DARF mold had the best prediction performance(training set:MAE=0.1036,RMSE=0.1514,R^(2)=0.9577,VAF=94.2645;test set:MAE=0.1115,RMSE=0.1417,R^(2)=0.9423,VAF=94.0836).The results of the sensitivity analysis showed that the relative importance of each input variable was DS,ED,RMS,and JI from low to high.
基金Startup Fund for Scientific Research of Fujian Medical University,No.2018QH1052Fujian Health Research Talents Training Program,No.2019-1-42.
文摘BACKGROUND Assessment of liver reserve function(LRF)is essential for predicting the prognosis of patients with chronic liver disease(CLD)and determines the extent of liver resection in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma.AIM To establish noninvasive models for LRF assessment based on liver stiffness measurement(LSM)and to evaluate their clinical performance.METHODS A total of 360 patients with compensated CLD were retrospectively analyzed as the training cohort.The new predictive models were established through logistic regression analysis and were validated internally in a prospective cohort(132 patients).RESULTS Our study defined indocyanine green retention rate at 15 min(ICGR15)≥10%as mildly impaired LRF and ICGR15≥20%as severely impaired LRF.We constructed predictive models of LRF,named the mLPaM and sLPaM,which involved only LSM,prothrombin time international normalized ratio to albumin ratio(PTAR),age and model for end-stage liver disease(MELD).The area under the curve of the mLPaM model(0.855,0.872,respectively)and sLPaM model(0.869,0.876,respectively)were higher than that of the methods for MELD,albumin bilirubin grade and PTAR in the two cohorts,and their sensitivity and negative predictive value were the highest among these methods in the training cohort.In addition,the new models showed good sensitivity and accuracy for the diagnosis of LRF impairment in the validation cohort.CONCLUSION The new models had a good predictive performance for LRF and could replace the indocyanine green(ICG)clearance test,especially in patients who are unable to undergo ICG testing.
文摘Background The vasovagal reflex syndrome （VVRS） is common in the patiems undergoing percutaneous coronary intervemion （PCI） However, prediction and prevention of the risk for the VVRS have not been completely fulfilled. This study was conducted to develop a Risk Prediction Score Model to identify the determinants of VVRS in a large Chinese population cohort receiving PCI. Methods From the hos- pital electronic medical database, we idemified 3550 patients who received PCI （78.0% males, mean age 60 years） in Chinese PLA General Hospital from January 1, 2000 to August 30, 2016. The multivariate analysis and receiver operating characteristic 01OC） analysis were performed. Results The adverse events of VVRS in the patients were significantly increased after PCI procedure than before the operation （all P 〈 0.001）. The rate of VVRS [95% confidence interval （CI）] in patients receiving PCI was 4.5% （4.1%-5.6%）. Compared to the patients suffering no VVRS, incidence of VVRS involved the following factors, namely female gender, primary PCI, hypertension, over two stems im- plantation in the left anterior descending （LAD）, and the femoral puncture site. The multivariate analysis suggested that they were independ- ent risk factors for predicting the incidence of VVRS （all P 〈 0.001）. We developed a risk prediction score model for VVRS. ROC analysis showed that the risk prediction score model was effectively predictive of the incidence of VVRS in patients receiving PCI （c-statistic 0.76, 95% CI： 0.72-0.79, P 〈 0.001）. There were decreased evems of VVRS in the patients receiving PCI whose diastolic blood pressure dropped by more than 30 mmHg and heart rate reduced by 10 times per minute （AUC： 0.84, 95% CI： 0.81-0.87, P 〈 0.001）. Conclusion The risk prediction score is quite efficient in predicting the incidence of VVRS in patients receiving PCI. In which, the following factors may be in- volved, the femoral puncture site, female gender, hypertension, primary PCI, and over 2 stents implanted in LAD.
基金the financial support by National Natural Science Foundation of China with Grant Nos.52174303 and 51874084Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities with Grant No.2125026Program of Introducing Talents of Discipline to Universities with Grant No.B21001.
文摘An Xtreme Gradient Boosting(XGBoost)-based endpoint hydrogen content prediction model was proposed for the electroslag remelting process,the data collected in the field were pre-processed,and the characteristic variables of the physical parameters related to the variation of hydrogen content in the electroslag remelting process were selected by machine learning analysis and metallurgical mechanism.The kernel ridge regression model,ridge regression model,XGBoost model,support vector regression model and gradient boosting regression model were developed and validated using the electroslag remelting data collected from the steel mills,and the model structure and parameters were adjusted several times.The prediction accuracy of hydrogen content was compared horizontally.The XGBoost model was validated for the test set with the following hit rates:70.59%,82.35% and 100% for the endpoint hits at the allowable hydrogen content error of ±0.05×10^(-6),±0.10×10^(-6) and ±0.50×10^(-6),respectively.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(U1462206)
文摘To improve the naphtha composition prediction model based on molecular type homologous series matrix （MTHS）, this paper puts forward a novel molecular matrix to characterize the naphtha composition and the norreal distribution hypothesis to better describe the molecular composition distribution within each homologous series of the molecular matrix. Through prediction calculation of eight groups of naphtha samples and eight groups of gasoline samples, it is verified that the normal distribution hypothesis is more applicable than gamma distribution hypothesis for the prediction model. According to the prediction results of the samples, the restrain range of normal distribution parameters during model computing process is summarized. With the bulk properties of naphtha samples and the value range of distribution parameters as input conditions, this study utilizes the improved novel molecular matrix to predict the composition of naphtha samples. As the results show, the novel molecular matrix can predict more detailed composition information of naphtha and improve prediction accuracy with less unknown parameters.
文摘Settlement prediction of geosynthetic-reinforced soil(GRS)abutments under service loading conditions is an arduous and challenging task for practicing geotechnical/civil engineers.Hence,in this paper,a novel hybrid artificial intelligence(AI)-based model was developed by the combination of artificial neural network(ANN)and Harris hawks’optimisation(HHO),that is,ANN-HHO,to predict the settlement of the GRS abutments.Five other robust intelligent models such as support vector regression(SVR),Gaussian process regression(GPR),relevance vector machine(RVM),sequential minimal optimisation regression(SMOR),and least-median square regression(LMSR)were constructed and compared to the ANN-HHO model.The predictive strength,relalibility and robustness of the model were evaluated based on rigorous statistical testing,ranking criteria,multi-criteria approach,uncertainity analysis and sensitivity analysis(SA).Moreover,the predictive veracity of the model was also substantiated against several large-scale independent experimental studies on GRS abutments reported in the scientific literature.The acquired findings demonstrated that the ANN-HHO model predicted the settlement of GRS abutments with reasonable accuracy and yielded superior performance in comparison to counterpart models.Therefore,it becomes one of predictive tools employed by geotechnical/civil engineers in preliminary decision-making when investigating the in-service performance of GRS abutments.Finally,the model has been converted into a simple mathematical formulation for easy hand calculations,and it is proved cost-effective and less time-consuming in comparison to experimental tests and numerical simulations.
