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Variable structure control with sliding mode prediction for discrete-time nonlinear systems 被引量:4
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作者 Lingfei XIAO Hongye SU Xiaoyu ZHANG Jian CHU 《控制理论与应用(英文版)》 EI 2006年第2期140-146,共7页
A new variable structure control algorithm based on sliding mode prediction for a class of discrete-time nonlinear systems is presented. By employing a special model to predict future sliding mode value, and combining... A new variable structure control algorithm based on sliding mode prediction for a class of discrete-time nonlinear systems is presented. By employing a special model to predict future sliding mode value, and combining feedback correction and receding horizon optimization methods which are extensively applied on predictive control strategy, a discrete-time variable structure control law is constructed. The closed-loop systems are proved to have robustness to uncertainties with unspecified boundaries. Numerical simulation and pendulum experiment results illustrate that the closed-loop systems possess desired performance, such as strong robustness, fast convergence and chattering elimination. 展开更多
关键词 Variable structure control Sliding mode prediction Discrete-time nonlinear system Pendulum experiment
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Defining Embedding Distortion for Intra Prediction Mode-Based Video Steganography 被引量:2
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作者 Qiankai Nie Xuba Xu +1 位作者 Bingwen Feng Leo Yu Zhang 《Computers, Materials & Continua》 SCIE EI 2018年第4期59-70,共12页
In this paper,an effective intra prediction mode-based video strganography is proposed.Secret messages are embedded during the intra prediction of the video encoding without causing large embedding impact.The influenc... In this paper,an effective intra prediction mode-based video strganography is proposed.Secret messages are embedded during the intra prediction of the video encoding without causing large embedding impact.The influence on the sum of absolute difference(SAD)in intra prediction modes(IPMs)reversion phenomenon is sharp when modifying IPMs.It inspires us to take the SAD prediction deviation(SPD)to define the distortion function.What is more,the mapping rule between IPMs and the codewords is introduced to further reduce the SPD values of each intra block.Syndrome-trellis code(STC)is used as the practical embedding implementation.Experimental results demonstrate that our proposed steganographic scheme presents high undetectability compared with existing IPMs-based steganographic approaches.It also outperforms these schemes on stego video quality. 展开更多
关键词 STEGANOGRAPHY intra prediction mode embedding distortion VIDEO
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Optimal Mode Decision Method for Interframe Prediction in H.264/AVC 被引量:2
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作者 Hongjin Zhu Honghui Fan +4 位作者 Zhenqiu Shu Congzhe You Xiangjun Chen Qian Yu Pengzhen Gan 《Computers, Materials & Continua》 SCIE EI 2020年第12期2425-2439,共15页
Studies show that encoding technologies in H.264/AVC,including prediction and conversion,are essential technologies.However,these technologies are more complicated than the MPEG-4,which is a standard method and widely... Studies show that encoding technologies in H.264/AVC,including prediction and conversion,are essential technologies.However,these technologies are more complicated than the MPEG-4,which is a standard method and widely adopted worldwide.Therefore,the amount of calculation in H.264/AVC is significantly up-regulated compared to that of the MPEG-4.In the present study,it is intended to simplify the computational expenses in the international standard compression coding system H.264/AVC for moving images.Inter prediction refers to the most feasible compression technology,taking up to 60%of the entire encoding.In this regard,prediction error and motion vector information are proposed to simplify the computation of inter predictive coding technology.In the initial frame,motion compensation is performed in all target modes and then basic information is collected and analyzed.After the initial frame,motion compensation is performed only in the middle 8×8 modes,and the basic information amount shifts.In order to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed method and assess the motion image compression coding,four types of motion images,defined by the international telecommunication union(ITU),are employed.Based on the obtained results,it is concluded that the developed method is capable of simplifying the calculation,while it is slightly affected by the inferior image quality and the amount of information. 展开更多
关键词 Video compression prediction mode decision H.264/AVC interframe prediction
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Reentry Attitude Tracking Control for Hypersonic Vehicle with Reaction Control Systems via Improved Model Predictive Control Approach 被引量:4
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作者 Kai Liu Zheng Hou +2 位作者 Zhiyong She Jian Guo 《Computer Modeling in Engineering & Sciences》 SCIE EI 2020年第1期131-148,共18页
This paper studies the reentry attitude tracking control problem for hypersonic vehicles(HSV)equipped with reaction control systems(RCS)and aerodynamic surfaces.The attitude dynamical model of the hypersonic vehicles ... This paper studies the reentry attitude tracking control problem for hypersonic vehicles(HSV)equipped with reaction control systems(RCS)and aerodynamic surfaces.The attitude dynamical model of the hypersonic vehicles is established,and the simplified longitudinal and lateral dynamic models are obtained,respectively.Then,the compound control allocation strategy is provided and the model predictive controller is designed for the pitch channel.Furthermore,considering the complicated jet interaction effect of HSV during RCS is working,an improved model predictive control approach is presented by introducing the online parameter estimation of the jet interaction coefficient for dealing with the uncertainty and disturbance.Moreover,considering the strong coupling effect between the yaw channel and roll channel,a coupled model predictive controller is designed by introducing the feedback of sideslip angle into the roll control channel to eliminate the coupling effect.Finally,the comparison simulations using the classical control method,MPC and IMPC approach are given to demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the presented IMPC scheme. 展开更多
关键词 Hypersonic vehicle reentry attitude control mode predictive control jet interference factor reaction control systems
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Improvement of the prediction accuracy of polar motion using empirical mode decomposition 被引量:2
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作者 Yu Lei Hongbing Cai Danning Zhao 《Geodesy and Geodynamics》 2017年第2期141-146,共6页
Previous studies revealed that the error of pole coordinate prediction will significantly increase for a prediction period longer than 100 days, and this is mainly caused by short period oscillations. Empirical mode d... Previous studies revealed that the error of pole coordinate prediction will significantly increase for a prediction period longer than 100 days, and this is mainly caused by short period oscillations. Empirical mode decomposition (EMD), which is increasingly popular and has advantages over classical wavelet decomposition, can be used to remove short period variations from observed time series of pole co- ordinates. A hybrid model combing EMD and extreme learning machine (ELM), where high frequency signals are removed and processed time series is then modeled and predicted, is summarized in this paper. The prediction performance of the hybrid model is compared with that of the ELM-only method created from original time series. The results show that the proposed hybrid model outperforms the pure ELM method for both short-term and long-term prediction of pole coordinates. The improvement of prediction accuracy up to 360 days in the future is found to be 24.91% and 26.79% on average in terms of mean absolute error (MAE) for the xp and yp components of pole coordinates, respectively. 展开更多
关键词 Polar motion prediction model Empirical mode decomposition (EMD)Neural networks (NN)Extreme learning machine (ELM)
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Clinical Effect of Predictive Nursing Mode in Hepatolithiasis Surgery
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作者 WANG Qingping 《外文科技期刊数据库(文摘版)医药卫生》 2021年第2期107-111,共5页
Objective: to explore and analyze the nursing effect of predictive nursing mode on patients undergoing hepatolithiasis surgery. Methods 50 cases of patients undergoing hepatolithiasis surgery in our hospital were take... Objective: to explore and analyze the nursing effect of predictive nursing mode on patients undergoing hepatolithiasis surgery. Methods 50 cases of patients undergoing hepatolithiasis surgery in our hospital were taken as cases. The grouping was completed by the random number table method. The routine group provided routine care, and the observation group provided predictive care. The postoperative recovery of the patients was then compared. Results: the recovery rate of the observation group by predictive nursing was 93%, and the recovery rate of the conventional nursing group by routine nursing was 81%. The recovery rate of the two groups was significantly different (P < 0.05). Conclusion: predictive nursing can effectively improve the postoperative recovery rate of patients with hepatolithiasis operation, which is worthy of extensive clinical application. 展开更多
关键词 hepatolithiasis surgery predictive nursing mode clinical effect
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A New Sliding Function for Discrete Predictive Sliding Mode Control of Time Delay Systems 被引量:7
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作者 Abdennebi Nizar Ben Mansour Houda Nouri Ahmed Said 《International Journal of Automation and computing》 EI CSCD 2013年第4期288-295,共8页
The control of time delay systems is still an open area for research. This paper proposes an enhanced model predictive discrete-time sliding mode control with a new sliding function for a linear system with state dela... The control of time delay systems is still an open area for research. This paper proposes an enhanced model predictive discrete-time sliding mode control with a new sliding function for a linear system with state delay. Firstly, a new sliding function including a present value and a past value of the state, called dynamic surface, is designed by means of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs). Then, using this dynamic function and the rolling optimization method in the predictive control strategy, a discrete predictive sliding mode controller is synthesized. This new strategy is proposed to eliminate the undesirable effect of the delay term in the closed loop system. Also, the designed control strategy is more robust, and has a chattering reduction property and a faster convergence of the system s state. Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed control. 展开更多
关键词 State time delay systems discrete sliding mode control model predictive control dynamic sliding function linear matrix inequalities (LMIs) chattering.
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Discrete sliding mode prediction control of uncertain switched systems
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作者 He Zhaolan Wang Mao Liu Shuhuan 《Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics》 SCIE EI CSCD 2009年第5期1065-1071,共7页
The robust stabilization problem for a class of uncertain discrete-time switched systems is presented. A predictive sliding mode control strategy is proposed, and a discrete-time reaching law is improved. By applying ... The robust stabilization problem for a class of uncertain discrete-time switched systems is presented. A predictive sliding mode control strategy is proposed, and a discrete-time reaching law is improved. By applying a predictive sliding surface and a reference trajectory, combining with the state feedback correction and rolling optimization method in the predictive control strategy, a predictive sliding mode controller is synthesized, which guarantees the asymptotic stability for the closed-loop systems. The designed control strategy has stronger robustness and chattering reduction property to conquer with the system uncertainties. In addition, a unique nonswitched sliding surface is designed. The reason is to avoid the repetitive jump of the trajectories of the state components of the closed-loop system between sliding surfaces because it might cause the possible instability. Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed theory. 展开更多
关键词 switched system sliding mode control predictive control rolling optimization.
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Neural Network Prediction of Disruptions Caused by Locked Modes on J-TEXT Tokamak
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作者 丁永华 金雪松 +1 位作者 陈真真 庄革 《Plasma Science and Technology》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2013年第11期1154-1159,共6页
Prediction of disruptions caused by locked modes using the Back-Propagation (BP) neural network is completed on J-TEXT tokamak. The network, which is based on the BP neural network, uses Mirnov coils and locked mode... Prediction of disruptions caused by locked modes using the Back-Propagation (BP) neural network is completed on J-TEXT tokamak. The network, which is based on the BP neural network, uses Mirnov coils and locked mode coils signals as input data, and outputs a signal including information of prediction of locked mode. The rate of successful prediction of locked modes is more than 90%. For intrinsic locked mode disruptions, the network can give a prewarning signal about 1 ms ahead of the locking-time. For the disruption caused by resonant magnetic perturbation (RMPs) locked modes, the network can give a prewarning signal about 10 ms ahead of the locking-time. 展开更多
关键词 DISRUPTION locked mode BP neural network prediction
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Predictive Sliding Mode Control to a Thermal Process for Batch Dyeing
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作者 张建新 俞利国 《Journal of Donghua University(English Edition)》 EI CAS 2012年第2期182-186,共5页
The batch dyeing process is a typical nonlinear process with time-delay,where precise controlling of temperature plays a vital role on the dyeing quality.Because the accuracy and robustness of the commonly used propor... The batch dyeing process is a typical nonlinear process with time-delay,where precise controlling of temperature plays a vital role on the dyeing quality.Because the accuracy and robustness of the commonly used proportion integration differentiation(PID) algorithm had been limited,a novel method was developed to precisely control the heating and cooling stages for batch dyeing process based on predictive sliding mode control(SMC) algorithm.Firstly,a special predictive sliding mode model was constructed according to the principle of generalized predictive control(GPC);secondly,an appropriate reference trajectory for SMC was designed based on the improved approaching law;finally,the predictive sliding mode model and the Diophantine equation were used to predict the output and then the optimized control law was derived using the generalized predictive law.This method combined GPC and the SMC with their respective advantages,so it could be applied to time-delay process,making the control system more robust.Simulation experiments show that this algorithm can well track the temperature variation for the batch dyeing process. 展开更多
关键词 temperature control generalized predictive control(GPC) sliding mode control(SMC) batch dyeing process
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Service Life Prediction of Recycled Aggregate Concrete Based on Freezing-thawing Damage Model
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作者 ZhenshuangWang 《土木工程与技术(中英文版)》 2013年第1期7-12,共6页
关键词 土木工程 建筑工程 建筑结构 结构力学
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Robust Adaptive Gain Higher Order Sliding Mode Observer Based Control-constrained Nonlinear Model Predictive Control for Spacecraft Formation Flying 被引量:10
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作者 Ranjith Ravindranathan Nair Laxmidhar Behera 《IEEE/CAA Journal of Automatica Sinica》 SCIE EI CSCD 2018年第1期367-381,共15页
This work deals with the development of a decentralized optimal control algorithm, along with a robust observer,for the relative motion control of spacecraft in leader-follower based formation. An adaptive gain higher... This work deals with the development of a decentralized optimal control algorithm, along with a robust observer,for the relative motion control of spacecraft in leader-follower based formation. An adaptive gain higher order sliding mode observer has been proposed to estimate the velocity as well as unmeasured disturbances from the noisy position measurements.A differentiator structure containing the Lipschitz constant and Lebesgue measurable control input, is utilized for obtaining the estimates. Adaptive tuning algorithms are derived based on Lyapunov stability theory, for updating the observer gains,which will give enough flexibility in the choice of initial estimates.Moreover, it may help to cope with unexpected state jerks. The trajectory tracking problem is formulated as a finite horizon optimal control problem, which is solved online. The control constraints are incorporated by using a nonquadratic performance functional. An adaptive update law has been derived for tuning the step size in the optimization algorithm, which may help to improve the convergence speed. Moreover, it is an attractive alternative to the heuristic choice of step size for diverse operating conditions. The disturbance as well as state estimates from the higher order sliding mode observer are utilized by the plant output prediction model, which will improve the overall performance of the controller. The nonlinear dynamics defined in leader fixed Euler-Hill frame has been considered for the present work and the reference trajectories are generated using Hill-Clohessy-Wiltshire equations of unperturbed motion. The simulation results based on rigorous perturbation analysis are presented to confirm the robustness of the proposed approach. 展开更多
关键词 Adaptive gain higher order sliding mode observer leader-follower formation nonlinear model predictive control spacecraft formation flying tracking control
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风速重构聚类的元启发双向记忆预测方法
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作者 史晓航 潘超 +1 位作者 王超 李载源 《现代电力》 北大核心 2026年第1期1-9,共9页
风速的准确预测对于规模化风电并网及安全运行非常关键。该文首先采用完全自适应噪声集合经验模态分解法将风速序列分解为若干模态分量,结合快速相关滤波,实现模态分量的优选与降维,重构样本集合。其次,选用高斯核距离度量样本间距,并... 风速的准确预测对于规模化风电并网及安全运行非常关键。该文首先采用完全自适应噪声集合经验模态分解法将风速序列分解为若干模态分量,结合快速相关滤波,实现模态分量的优选与降维,重构样本集合。其次,选用高斯核距离度量样本间距,并优选初值,以改进Kmedoids聚类,提升高维样本空间的聚类准确性和稳定性。在双向长短时记忆网络中嵌入元启发优化模块,构建元启发双向记忆网络。然后,输入训练样本寻优内置参数以及典型集测试样本寻优结构参数。最后,输出风速预测值。以东北地区某风场为研究对象进行算例仿真,验证预测模型的准确性和泛化能力。 展开更多
关键词 风速预测 模态分解重构 改进K-medoids聚类 元启发双向记忆网络
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MODES系统对贵州月气温、降水预测初步评估 被引量:8
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作者 白慧 高辉 +2 位作者 刘长征 毛炜峄 杜良敏 《沙漠与绿洲气象》 2016年第5期58-63,共6页
通过对2013年1月—2015年6月(MODES)发布的最优月预测产品在贵州省月平均气温距平和降水距平百分率的预测检验评估,发现MODES对全省平均气温有较好的预报,分析时段内预测与实况的相关系数为0.24,距平同号率为65.5%,且对气温偏高预测的... 通过对2013年1月—2015年6月(MODES)发布的最优月预测产品在贵州省月平均气温距平和降水距平百分率的预测检验评估,发现MODES对全省平均气温有较好的预报,分析时段内预测与实况的相关系数为0.24,距平同号率为65.5%,且对气温偏高预测的可参考性高于其对气温偏低的预测。相比于气温,MODES对降水预测能力较弱,参考性也相对较低,其中对贵州全省平均降水偏多趋势的预测技巧要优于对全省平均偏少趋势的预报技巧。逐站分析显示,MODES对贵州气温预测效果较好的地区在西部、北部和东部,对降水偏多的预测效果较好的地区位于除西北部和北部边缘地区外的其余大部地区。通过对MODES与预报员综合预报的结果评估发现,MODES月预测总体效果较预报员好,且稳定性高于预报员,可为预报员提供参考信息。 展开更多
关键词 多模式解释应用集成预测系统(modeS) 距平同号率 Ps评分 检验评估
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基于EMD和OS-ELM的变压器套管温度预测方法
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作者 张庆平 闫振华 +3 位作者 张沈习 康佳宇 李秀广 高博 《高压电器》 北大核心 2026年第1期95-102,共8页
为了提高变压器套管温度的预测精度,提出了一种基于经验模态分解(empirical mode decomposition,EMD)和在线序列极限学习机(online sequential-extreme learning machine,OS-ELM)的变压器套管温度预测方法。首先,采用EMD法对变压器套管... 为了提高变压器套管温度的预测精度,提出了一种基于经验模态分解(empirical mode decomposition,EMD)和在线序列极限学习机(online sequential-extreme learning machine,OS-ELM)的变压器套管温度预测方法。首先,采用EMD法对变压器套管温度时序数据进行分解,得到若干内涵模态分量;其次,利用滑动窗口法处理各个分量形成带标签的数据集,并输入OS-ELM模型对各个分量的数据集进行训练;最后,通过叠加各个序列分量的预测结果得到最终的变压器套管温度预测结果。实例仿真结果表明:EMD预处理可提升模型的预测精度;对比极限学习机(ELM)、反向传播神经网络(back propagation neural network,BPNN)和支持向量机(support vector machine,SVM)方法,文中所提方法预测精度更高。 展开更多
关键词 变压器套管 温度预测 经验模态分解 在线序列极限学习机
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基于MIV-DBO-DeepAR模型的净负荷预测研究
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作者 丁立 吴东晖 +4 位作者 隋佳音 韩碧彤 刘怡廷 李新利 杨国田 《华北电力大学学报(自然科学版)》 北大核心 2026年第1期116-128,共13页
随着新能源装机容量不断提升,对电网的净负荷预测显得尤为重要,在此背景下,提出了一种基于MIV-DBO-DeepAR的净负荷预测方法,并构建了多模式净负荷预测策略。首先基于改进的平均影响值算法对影响净负荷的因素进行相关性分析和数据降维;... 随着新能源装机容量不断提升,对电网的净负荷预测显得尤为重要,在此背景下,提出了一种基于MIV-DBO-DeepAR的净负荷预测方法,并构建了多模式净负荷预测策略。首先基于改进的平均影响值算法对影响净负荷的因素进行相关性分析和数据降维;其次构建基于长短期记忆网络的DeepAR净负荷预测模型,并采用蜣螂优化算法优化DeepAR模型超参数,以提升模型预测精度;最后,综合考虑净负荷的确定性预测与不确定性预测,提出了一种多模式预测策略,采用Q-Q图法验证光伏与负荷分别多次预测所得预测值的概率分布特性,并基于二元高斯分布函数求解其联合概率分布,最终得到净负荷的预测区间。通过实例仿真分析,结果表明所提预测模型在点预测与区间预测中均具有较高的预测精度以及跟踪净负荷波动的能力。 展开更多
关键词 净负荷 DeepAR模型 多模式预测 不确定性分析 预测区间 联合概率分布
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MODE检验在天气预报中的应用研究进展 被引量:6
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作者 潘留杰 张宏芳 +6 位作者 刘嘉慧敏 祁春娟 梁绵 马丹萌 李培荣 戴昌明 高星星 《地球科学进展》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2024年第2期193-206,共14页
客观评价高分辨率中小尺度变量的预报表现是数值天气预报模式应用和发展的重要环节。传统点对点的检验在高分辨率数值预报模式评估中存在显著不足。空间面向对象或目标法MODE检验方法利用卷积函数和给定的阈值在预报和观测场中识别目标... 客观评价高分辨率中小尺度变量的预报表现是数值天气预报模式应用和发展的重要环节。传统点对点的检验在高分辨率数值预报模式评估中存在显著不足。空间面向对象或目标法MODE检验方法利用卷积函数和给定的阈值在预报和观测场中识别目标对象、诊断模式的预报表现,在天气预报中有着广泛应用。首先系统回顾了MODE检验方法的学术思想、技术架构、算法流程和检验指标;详细归纳了MODE检验在降水预报、天气雷达、卫星云图、集合预报以及其他不同要素或物理量场中的典型应用,阐述了检验结果在数值模式预报质量评价中的意义和对天气预报结果主客观订正的影响;介绍了近年来MODE检验方法的更新发展,主要包括考虑不匹配目标对象属性的综合评价指数MCS,以椭球体为目标的三维时域空间对象追踪和MODE扩展的时域检验方法MODE-TD;最后总结和讨论了MODE检验方法的适用性、优势和不足,同时对MODE检验方法未来的发展方向和应用前景进行了展望。旨在为更好地应用MODE检验方法诊断数值模式的预报性能提供参考。 展开更多
关键词 数值天气预报 空间检验 目标对象 mode
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融合注意力机制和CNN⁃BiLSTM的电站空气预热器压差预测方法
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作者 李柏利 张卓越 任少君 《发电设备》 2026年第1期1-12,共12页
针对现有方法在电站锅炉回转式空气预热器积灰堵塞监测中存在对非平稳数据处理能力弱、特征提取效果差的问题,提出一种集成变分模态分解(VMD)、卷积神经网络(CNN)、双向长短期记忆(BiLSTM)网络与频率增强通道注意力机制(FECAM)的组合预... 针对现有方法在电站锅炉回转式空气预热器积灰堵塞监测中存在对非平稳数据处理能力弱、特征提取效果差的问题,提出一种集成变分模态分解(VMD)、卷积神经网络(CNN)、双向长短期记忆(BiLSTM)网络与频率增强通道注意力机制(FECAM)的组合预测压差模型。为进一步提升VMD分解效果,采用鹅优化算法(GOOSE)对其模态数量与惩罚因子进行自适应寻优,从而增强模型对噪声干扰的抑制能力。通过某燃煤电厂空气预热器的实际运行数据验证表明:所提模型在单步预测中的均方根误差(RMSE)、平均绝对误差(MAE)和平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)分别比BiLSTM模型降低了42.93%、43.58%和44.72%,在多步预测中同样表现出更强的稳定性与鲁棒性,显著优于其他时间序列预测模型。 展开更多
关键词 机器学习 空气预热器 压差预测 变分模态分解 注意力机制
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基于IVMD与分层自适应图卷积的城市交通流量预测
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作者 葛洪霞 张著洪 《无线电工程》 2026年第1期70-82,共13页
针对交通流量序列存在非平稳性及高动态相关性而导致流量预测难的问题,提出一种基于图卷积神经网络的新型交通流量预测模型。模型设计借助粒子群优化算法建立改进型变分模态分解(Improved Variational Mode Decomposition,IVMD)模块,将... 针对交通流量序列存在非平稳性及高动态相关性而导致流量预测难的问题,提出一种基于图卷积神经网络的新型交通流量预测模型。模型设计借助粒子群优化算法建立改进型变分模态分解(Improved Variational Mode Decomposition,IVMD)模块,将原始交通流量序列分解成一系列模态函数分量,缓解交通流量序列的非平稳性;利用3个门控融合网络(Gated Fusion Network,GFN)交叉融合历史交通流量、兴趣点(Point of Interest,POI)和时间戳数据,学习时空交互特征;利用多尺度分离混合模块(Multi-scale Decomposable Mixing,MDM)捕捉交通流量的短期波动和长期趋势,提取交通流的季节和趋势特征,通过构建分层时空卷积块(Hierarchical Spatial-Temporal Convolution Block,HST-Conv Block)解决交通节点间的动态相关性问题,捕获交通流量的动态时空特征;并通过加和模块将各个特征相加得到高级时空特征,提升模型的交通流量预测性能。实验结果表明,所提模型有较强的特征提取能力,能有效提高交通流量的预测准确率。 展开更多
关键词 交通流量预测 变分模态分解 分层自适应图卷积 兴趣点
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MODES月预测产品在贵州的释用
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作者 李忠燕 严小冬 +2 位作者 张娇艳 白慧 吴战平 《气象科技》 北大核心 2017年第6期1058-1064,共7页
基于符号一致率评分(Pc)法,对多模式解释应用集成预测系统(MODES)的6种模式产品开展贵州85站2要素月预测释用,根据评估结果进一步采用等权平均方案和最优方案对6种模式产品展开2012—2015年48个月的回算统计。分析表明:不同的模式产品... 基于符号一致率评分(Pc)法,对多模式解释应用集成预测系统(MODES)的6种模式产品开展贵州85站2要素月预测释用,根据评估结果进一步采用等权平均方案和最优方案对6种模式产品展开2012—2015年48个月的回算统计。分析表明:不同的模式产品的预报性能各不相同,其中ECMWF的模式产品的预测性能较NCC和NCEP来说相对较高;模式产品释用时,最优方案的预报评分均高于其它6个模式产品的Pc评分平均值,且最优方案的预报评分高于等权平均方法的预报评分;回算结果,无论是气温还是降水,最优方案的Pc评分均都高于省级发布的月预测产品评分,这说明利用最优方案可以有效地提高MODES对贵州月气温和降水预测能力。 展开更多
关键词 modeS Pc评分 预测性能 最优方案 等权平均方案
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