Predicting monsoon climate is one of the major endeavors in climate science and is becoming increasingly challenging due to global warming. The accuracy of monsoon seasonal predictions significantly impacts the lives ...Predicting monsoon climate is one of the major endeavors in climate science and is becoming increasingly challenging due to global warming. The accuracy of monsoon seasonal predictions significantly impacts the lives of billions who depend on or are affected by monsoons, as it is essential for the water cycle, food security, ecology, disaster prevention, and the economy of monsoon regions. Given the extensive literature on Asian monsoon climate prediction, we limit our focus to reviewing the seasonal prediction and predictability of the Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM). However, much of this review is also relevant to monsoon predictions in other seasons and regions. Over the past two decades, considerable progress has been made in the seasonal forecasting of the ASM, driven by an enhanced understanding of the sources of predictability and the dynamics of seasonal variability, along with advanced development in sophisticated models and technologies. This review centers on advances in understanding the physical foundation for monsoon climate prediction (section 2), significant findings and insights into the primary and regional sources of predictability arising from feedback processes among various climate components (sections 3 and 4), the effects of global warming and external forcings on predictability (section 5), developments in seasonal prediction models and techniques (section 6), the challenges and limitations of monsoon climate prediction (section 7), and emerging research trends with suggestions for future directions (section 8). We hope this review will stimulate creative activities to enhance monsoon climate prediction.展开更多
This paper solves the problem of model-free dual-arm space robot maneuvering after non-cooperative target capture under high control quality requirements.The explicit system model is unavailable,and the maneuvering mi...This paper solves the problem of model-free dual-arm space robot maneuvering after non-cooperative target capture under high control quality requirements.The explicit system model is unavailable,and the maneuvering mission is disturbed by the measurement noise and the target adversarial behavior.To address these problems,a model-free Combined Adaptive-length Datadriven Predictive Controller(CADPC)is proposed.It consists of a separated subsystem identification method and a combined predictive control strategy.The subsystem identification method is composed of an adaptive data length,thereby reducing sensitivity to undetermined measurement noises and disturbances.Based on the subsystem identification,the combined predictive controller is established,reducing calculating resource.The stability of the CADPC is rigorously proven using the Input-to-State Stable(ISS)theorem and the small-gain theorem.Simulations demonstrate that CADPC effectively handles the model-free space robot post operation in the presence of significant disturbances,state measurement noise,and control input errors.It achieves improved steady-state accuracy,reduced steady-state control consumption,and minimized control input chattering.展开更多
The objective of the current study is to investigate an adaptive predictive observer-based autopilot for a skid-to-turn(STT)missile model with uncertainties and unknown dynamic equations.A predictive control for the S...The objective of the current study is to investigate an adaptive predictive observer-based autopilot for a skid-to-turn(STT)missile model with uncertainties and unknown dynamic equations.A predictive control for the STT missile is designed based on nonlinear model predictive control(NMPC)using Taylor series expansion,after which,via a neural network(NN),unknown functions are approximated.The present study also evaluates an adaptive optimal observer of a new strategy-based nonlinear system.Specifically,to estimate the missile states such as normal acceleration and its derivatives for the future,originally the Taylor series states expansion was gained to any specified order,based on their receding horizons.To address the problem of prediction error,an analytic solution was prepared that led to a closed form regarding the nonlinear optimal observer.Out of the gains resulting from the analytic solution,as developed for the problem of prediction error,the selection of the proposed observer gain was optimally conducted to meet the stability condition.Thus,combining the adaptive predictive autopilot and the adaptive optimal observer scheme was implemented to secure the performance,which needed only estimated normal acceleration and its derivatives.Meanwhile,no angular velocity measurement or wind angle estimation was required.Ultimately,the proposed technique was found effective,as confirmed by the qualitative simulation results.展开更多
The uneven distribution of the temperature field in the track structure,caused by various meteorological factors such as extremely low temperatures and snowfall,leads to significant temperature loads and is the primar...The uneven distribution of the temperature field in the track structure,caused by various meteorological factors such as extremely low temperatures and snowfall,leads to significant temperature loads and is the primary cause of damage to China Railway Track System(CRTS)III ballastless tracks in cold regions during service.In this study,to predict the temperature of the track structure accurately,we analyzed meteorological data collected from Shenyang,China,and identified the factors that had the most effect on the track temperature field.We propose a temporal convolutional network(TCN)-based temperature field prediction model for ballastless tracks(TCN-Track model),which enhances the ability to extract and fuse local and global features from complex long-term meteorological data.The results indicate that the proposed TCN-Track model performs well in predicting track temperature fields from meteorological data,with a mean absolute error(MAE)ranging from 0.26 to 0.39,a root mean square error(RMSE)ranging from 0.32 to 0.50,and correlation coefficient(R)values ranging from 0.888 to 0.985.Compared with a long short-term memory(LSTM)model,the MAE of the TCN-Track model is reduced by 89.17%and the RMSE by 88.51%.This method offers a new solution for accurately predicting the temperature field of ballastless tracks in cold regions,aiding in predicting and preventing track damage caused by low temperatures.展开更多
Pinus radiata(D.Don)dominates New Zealand's forestry industry,constituting 91%of plantations,and is among the world's most important plantation species.Given the socio-economic and environmental importance of ...Pinus radiata(D.Don)dominates New Zealand's forestry industry,constituting 91%of plantations,and is among the world's most important plantation species.Given the socio-economic and environmental importance of this species,it is important to have accurate and precise projections over time to make efficient decisions for forest management and greenfield investments in afforestation projects,especially for permanent carbon forests.Future projections of any natural resource systems rely on modeling;however,the acceleration of climate change makes future projections of yield less certain.These challenges also impact national expectations of the contribution planted forests will provide to address climate change and meet international commitments under the Paris Agreement.Using a large national-scale set of contemporary ground-measured data(2013–2023),this study investigates the performance of two growth models developed over 30 years ago that are widely used by NZ plantation growers:1)the Pumice Plateau Model 1988(PPM88)and 2)the 300-index(including a model variant of regional drift).Model simulations were made using the FORECASTER modeling suite with geographic boundaries to adjust for drift in space and time.Basal area(BA,m^(2)⋅ha^(-1))and volume(m^(3)⋅ha^(-1))were simulated,and standard errors and goodness-of-fit metrics calculated up to a typical rotation age of 30 years.Model residuals were then separated and analysed for the main plantation growing regions.The models overpredicted observed growth by between 6.8%and 16.2%,but model predictions and errors varied significantly between regions.The results of this study provided clear evidence of divergence between the outputs of both models and the measured data.Finally,this study suggests future measures to address challenges posed by these discrepancies that will provide better information for forest management and investment decisions in a changing climate.展开更多
A complementary method to determine the vibration source intensity,defined as the weighted vertical acceleration level at the tunnel wall,is needed urgently when comparable measurements or database predictions are una...A complementary method to determine the vibration source intensity,defined as the weighted vertical acceleration level at the tunnel wall,is needed urgently when comparable measurements or database predictions are unavailable in empirical predictions.In this study,we present an analytical model designed to quickly and accurately estimate the vibration source intensity produced by moving metro trains,considering both regular and floating slab tracks.The improved periodic pipe-in-pipe(PiP)model with regular or floating slabs affixed to the tunnel invert was developed.The train loads are represented in the frequency-wavenumber domain to apply in the model.Measured track irregularities were applied and the proposed model was validated against the measured results and verified by a tunnel-soil coupled model.The proposed approach effectively and accurately assessed the vibration source intensity generated by underground trains in a prediction time of just 58 s.Track irregularities significantly affect the vibration source intensity,making them a key factor in comparable measurements or database predictions.A floating slab track can reduce the vibration source intensity by about 14 dB.The proposed approach can serve as an additional method to complement comparable measurements or database predictions for determining the vibration source intensity in empirical predictions.展开更多
Northeast China serves as an important crop production region.Accurately forecasting summer precipitation in Northeast China(NEC-PR)has been a challenge due to its wide range of time scales influenced by varying clima...Northeast China serves as an important crop production region.Accurately forecasting summer precipitation in Northeast China(NEC-PR)has been a challenge due to its wide range of time scales influenced by varying climatic conditions.This study presents a scale separation hybrid statistical model with recurrent neural network(SS-RNN)to predict the summer monthly NEC-PR.The SS-RNN model decomposes the multiple scales of the NEC-PR into several spatiotemporal intrinsic mode functions covering annual to decadal time scales.This strategy provides a way to derive appropriate predictors and establish predictive models for the primary spatial modes of the NEC-PR at various time scales.Our results demonstrate substantial improvements by the SS-RNN model in predicting the summer monthly NEC-PR as compared with dynamic models,particularly in predicting the spatial pattern of the NEC-PR.In this paper we take August,the month of the highest NEC-PR,to assess our model skill.Independent forecasts of the August NEC-PR over the period 2021–24 achieve significant spatial anomaly correlation coefficients,reaching a maximum value of 0.83.Additional verifications by station observations show that the model hits most station anomalies,achieving a mean predictive skill score of 90.展开更多
Climate models are essential for understanding past,present,and future changes in atmospheric circulation,with circulation modes providing key sources of seasonal predictability and prediction uncertainties for both g...Climate models are essential for understanding past,present,and future changes in atmospheric circulation,with circulation modes providing key sources of seasonal predictability and prediction uncertainties for both global and regional climates.This study assesses the performance of models participating in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project in simulating interannual variability modes of Northern Hemisphere 500-hPa geopotential height during winter and summer,distinguishing predictable(potentially predictable on seasonal or longer timescales)and unpredictable(intraseasonal and essentially unpredictable at long range)components,using reanalysis data and a variance decomposition method.Although most models effectively capture unpredictable modes in reanalysis,their ability to reproduce dominant predictable modes-specifically the Pacific-North American pattern,Arctic Oscillation,and Western Pacific Oscillation in winter,and the East Atlantic and North Atlantic Oscillations in summer-varies notably.An optimal ensemble is identified to distinguish(a)predictable-external modes,dominated by external forcing,and(b)predictable-internal modes,associated with slow internal variability,during the historical period(1950-2014)and the SSP5-8.5 scenario(2036-2100).Under increased radiative forcing,the leading winter/summer predictable-external mode exhibits a more uniform spatial distribution,remarkably larger trend and annual variance,and enhanced height-sea surface temperature(SST)covariance under SSP5-8.5 compared to historical conditions.The dominant winter/summer predictable-internal modes also exhibit increased variance and height-SST covariance under SSP5-8.5,along with localized changes in spatial configuration.Minimal changes are observed in spatial distribution or variance for dominant winter/summer unpredictable modes under SSP5-8.5.This study,from a predictive perspective,deepens our understanding of model uncertainties and projected changes in circulations.展开更多
BACKGROUND Laparoscopic distal pancreatectomy(LDP)has emerged as the preferred approach for both benign and malignant lesions located in the pancreatic body and tail.Nevertheless,a notable deficiency persists in the a...BACKGROUND Laparoscopic distal pancreatectomy(LDP)has emerged as the preferred approach for both benign and malignant lesions located in the pancreatic body and tail.Nevertheless,a notable deficiency persists in the absence of a standardized,procedure-specific metric for evaluating and comparing surgical quality.A composite measure termed“textbook outcome(TO)”,which encompasses key short-term endpoints,has been validated in laparoscopic pancreatoduodenectomy but has not yet been established in dedicated LDP cohorts.The definition and prediction of TO in this context could aid in facilitating cross-institutional benchmarking and fostering advancements in quality improvement.AIM To establish procedure-specific criteria for TO and identify independent predictors of TO failure in patients undergoing LDP.METHODS Consecutive patients who underwent LDP at a single high-volume pancreatic center between January 2015 and August 2022 were retrospectively analyzed.TO was defined as the absence of clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula(grade B/C),post-pancreatectomy hemorrhage(grade B/C),severe complications(Clavien-Dindo≥III),readmission within 30 days,and in-hospital or 30-day mortality.Multivariable logistic regression was employed to identify independent predictors of TO failure,and a nomogram was constructed and internally validated.RESULTS Among 405 eligible patients,286(70.6%)attained TO.Multivariable analysis revealed that female sex[odds ratio(OR)=0.62,95%confidence interval(CI):0.39-0.99]conferred a protective effect,while preoperative endoscopic ultrasound-guided fine-needle aspiration(OR=2.66,95%CI:1.05-6.73),pancreatic portal hypertension(OR=2.81,95%CI:1.06-7.45),and cystic-solid(OR=2.51,95%CI:1.34-4.69)or solid lesions(OR=1.91,95%CI:1.06-3.44)were independently associated with TO failure(all P<0.05).The derived nomogram exhibited modest discrimination and calibration when assessed in both the training and validation datasets.CONCLUSION The proposed LDP-specific definition of TO is feasible and discriminative,and the developed nomogram provides an objective tool for individualized risk assessment.展开更多
Thermal power plants are the main contributors to greenhouse gas emissions.The prediction of the emission supports the decision makers and environmental sustainability.The objective of this study is to enhance the acc...Thermal power plants are the main contributors to greenhouse gas emissions.The prediction of the emission supports the decision makers and environmental sustainability.The objective of this study is to enhance the accuracy of emission prediction models,supporting more effective real-time monitoring and enabling informed operational decisions that align with environmental compliance efforts.This paper presents a data-driven approach for the accurate prediction of gas emissions,specifically nitrogen oxides(NOx)and carbon monoxide(CO),in natural gas power plants using an optimized hybrid machine learning framework.The proposed model integrates a Feedforward Neural Network(FFNN)trained using Particle Swarm Optimization to capture the nonlinear emission dynamics under varying gas turbine operating conditions.To further enhance predictive performance,the K-Nearest Neighbor(K-NN)algorithm serves as a post-processing method to enhance IPSO-FFNN predictions through adjustment and refinement,improving overall prediction accuracy,while Neighbor Component Analysis is used to identify and rank the most influential operational variables.The study makes a significant contribution through the combination of NCA feature selection with PSO global optimization,FFNN nonlinear modelling,and K-NN error correction into one unified system,which delivers precise emission predictions.The model was developed and tested using a real-world dataset collected from gas-fired turbine operations,with validated results demonstrating robust accuracy,achieving Root Mean Square Error values of 0.355 for CO and 0.368 for NOx.When benchmarked against conventional models such as standard FFNN,Support Vector Regression,and Long Short-Term Memory networks,the hybrid model achieved substantial improvements,up to 97.8%in Mean Squared Error,95%in Mean Absolute Error(MAE),and 85.19%in RMSE for CO;and 97.16%in MSE,93.4%in MAE,and 83.15%in RMSE for NOx.These results underscore the model’s potential for improving emission prediction,thereby supporting enhanced operational efficiency and adherence to environmental standards.展开更多
This study reveals the critical role of multiscale interaction within the westerly wind bursts(WWBs)west of the MJO convection in modulating the prediction skill for the November MJO event during the DYNAMO(Dynamics o...This study reveals the critical role of multiscale interaction within the westerly wind bursts(WWBs)west of the MJO convection in modulating the prediction skill for the November MJO event during the DYNAMO(Dynamics of the Madden–Julian Oscillation)field campaign.The characteristics of the MJO convection envelope are obtained by the largescale precipitation tracking method,and a novel metric is introduced to quantify the prediction skill for the MJO convection in the ECMWF reforecast.The ECMWF forecast exhibits approximately 17 days in skillful prediction for the MJO convection—significantly lower than that derived from the global measure.The reforecast ensembles are further classified into high and low skill catalogs based on the mean prediction skill during the observed WWBs period.High-skill ensembles exhibit significantly enhanced low-level westerlies,amplified MJO convection,and reduced spatial separation between the low-level westerlies and MJO convection during the WWBs period,indicating stronger coupling between the large-scale circulation and the convection.Mechanistic analysis reveals that enhanced westerlies in high-skill ensembles can transfer more high-frequency energy to the MJO convection through the flux convergence of interaction energy for MJO convection development,resulting in better prediction skill.展开更多
Precise forecasts of wildfire danger are crucial for proactive fuel management and emergency responses,yet they pose a challenge at the subseasonal scale due to limitations in prediction capabilities and a gap between...Precise forecasts of wildfire danger are crucial for proactive fuel management and emergency responses,yet they pose a challenge at the subseasonal scale due to limitations in prediction capabilities and a gap between forecast outputs and the needs of decision-makers.This study introduces an innovative hybrid modeling framework that integrates artificial intelligence(AI)with climate dynamic prediction systems to accurately forecast High Fire-Danger Days(HFDDs)for the following month.These HFDDs are derived from historical satellite fire data and the optimum fire danger index,with a particular focus on Southwest China as a case study.The AI module,based on the ResNet-18 neural network model,integrates observational and physically constrained analysis to establish links between HFDDs and optimal predictors of atmospheric circulation from both the concurrent and preceding months.Leveraging climate dynamical forecasting,this hybrid model provides more reliable deterministic predictions for monthly HFDDs than conventional methods that rely solely on terrestrial variables such as precipitation.More importantly,the integration of dynamical ensemble prediction enhances the model’s capability for skillful probabilistic predictions of HFDDs,facilitating the creation of customized fire danger outlooks and emergency action maps tailored to stakeholders’needs.The model’s added economic value was also evaluated,demonstrating its potential to improve decision-making in disaster management and bridge the“last-mile gap”in climate service delivery.This work contributes to the Seamless Prediction and Services for Sustainable Natural and Built Environment(SEPRESS)Program(2025–32),under the United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization(UNESCO)International Decade of Sciences for Sustainable Development(2024–33).展开更多
Customer churn is the rate at which customers discontinue doing business with a company over a given time period.It is an essential measure for businesses to monitor high churn rates,as they often indicate underlying ...Customer churn is the rate at which customers discontinue doing business with a company over a given time period.It is an essential measure for businesses to monitor high churn rates,as they often indicate underlying issues with services,products,or customer experience,resulting in considerable income loss.Prediction of customer churn is a crucial task aimed at retaining customers and maintaining revenue growth.Traditional machine learning(ML)models often struggle to capture complex temporal dependencies in client behavior data.To address this,an optimized deep learning(DL)approach using a Regularized Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory(RBiLSTM)model is proposed to mitigate overfitting and improve generalization error.The model integrates dropout,L2-regularization,and early stopping to enhance predictive accuracy while preventing over-reliance on specific patterns.Moreover,this study investigates the effect of optimization techniques on boosting the training efficiency of the developed model.Experimental results on a recent public customer churn dataset demonstrate that the trained model outperforms the traditional ML models and some other DL models,such as Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM)and Deep Neural Network(DNN),in churn prediction performance and stability.The proposed approach achieves 96.1%accuracy,compared with LSTM and DNN,which attain 94.5%and 94.1%accuracy,respectively.These results confirm that the proposed approach can be used as a valuable tool for businesses to identify at-risk consumers proactively and implement targeted retention strategies.展开更多
To investigate the influence of coarse aggregate parent rock properties on the elastic modulus of concrete,the mineralogical properties and stress-strain curves of granite and dolomite parent rocks,as well as the stre...To investigate the influence of coarse aggregate parent rock properties on the elastic modulus of concrete,the mineralogical properties and stress-strain curves of granite and dolomite parent rocks,as well as the strength and elastic modulus of mortar and concrete prepared with mechanism aggregates of the corresponding lithology,and the stress-strain curves of concrete were investigated.In this paper,a coarse aggregate and mortar matrix bonding assumption is proposed,and a prediction model for the elastic modulus of mortar is established by considering the lithology of the mechanism sand and the slurry components.An equivalent coarse aggregate elastic modulus model was established by considering factors such as coarse aggregate particle size,volume fraction,and mortar thickness between coarse aggregates.Based on the elastic modulus of the equivalent coarse aggregate and the remaining mortar,a prediction model for the elastic modulus of the two and three components of concrete in series and then in parallel was established,and the predicted values differed from the measured values within 10%.It is proposed that the coarse aggregate elastic modulus in highstrength concrete is the most critical factor affecting the elastic modulus of concrete,and as the coarse aggregate elastic modulus increases by 27.7%,the concrete elastic modulus increases by 19.5%.展开更多
Arctic sea ice concentration(SIC)prediction on a subseasonal scale plays an important role in polar navigation.To reduce the high uncertainty of daily forecasts,three time series prediction models are combined with em...Arctic sea ice concentration(SIC)prediction on a subseasonal scale plays an important role in polar navigation.To reduce the high uncertainty of daily forecasts,three time series prediction models are combined with empirical orthogonal function(EOF)decomposition to forecast Arctic pentad-mean SIC,where each month is divided into six pentad-means–the first five each span five days,and the last encompasses the remaining days,which may vary in length.The models were trained on SIC data from 1989 to2018 and tested from 2019 to 2023,with lead times ranging from 1 to 12 pentad-means.Model skill was evaluated based on SIC spatial patterns,sea ice area(SIA),and the sea ice edge in September from 2019 to 2023.The moving-averaged 2-m temperature helps reduce the long short-term memory model's error in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas.Based on the models'scores for each EOF time series,weighted ensemble prediction results were obtained.These results outperform two benchmark models across all lead times.In addition,the ensemble prediction better reproduces the seasonal cycle of the SIA,with relative errors ranging from 1.04%to 3.85%.The predicted September ice edge closely matches observations,with binary accuracy consistently above 90%.Forecast models show the lowest errors in the central Arctic,while relatively higher errors appear in the Barents and Kara Seas.展开更多
BACKGROUND:This study aims to develop and validate a machine learning-based in-hospital mortality predictive model for acute aortic syndrome(AAS)in the emergency department(ED)and to derive a simplifi ed version suita...BACKGROUND:This study aims to develop and validate a machine learning-based in-hospital mortality predictive model for acute aortic syndrome(AAS)in the emergency department(ED)and to derive a simplifi ed version suitable for rapid clinical application.METHODS:In this multi-center retrospective cohort study,AAS patient data from three hospitals were analyzed.The modeling cohort included data from the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University and the People’s Hospital of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,with Peking University Third Hospital data serving as the external test set.Four machine learning algorithms—logistic regression(LR),multilayer perceptron(MLP),Gaussian naive Bayes(GNB),and random forest(RF)—were used to develop predictive models based on 34 early-accessible clinical variables.A simplifi ed model was then derived based on fi ve key variables(Stanford type,pericardial eff usion,asymmetric peripheral arterial pulsation,decreased bowel sounds,and dyspnea)via Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator(LASSO)regression to improve ED applicability.RESULTS:A total of 929 patients were included in the modeling cohort,and 210 were included in the external test set.Four machine learning models based on 34 clinical variables were developed,achieving internal and external validation AUCs of 0.85-0.90 and 0.73-0.85,respectively.The simplifi ed model incorporating fi ve key variables demonstrated internal and external validation AUCs of 0.71-0.86 and 0.75-0.78,respectively.Both models showed robust calibration and predictive stability across datasets.CONCLUSION:Both kinds of models were built based on machine learning tools,and proved to have certain prediction performance and extrapolation.展开更多
Objective:To investigate the impact of targeted nursing interventions based on frailty prediction models on peri-hospitalization clinical outcomes in middle-aged and elderly patients with upper gastrointestinal bleedi...Objective:To investigate the impact of targeted nursing interventions based on frailty prediction models on peri-hospitalization clinical outcomes in middle-aged and elderly patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding(UGIB).Methods:A prospective cohort study was conducted,and 126 middle-aged and elderly patients with UGIB admitted from August 2024 to August 2025 were selected as the study subjects.The patients were divided into the intervention group(63 cases)and the control group(63 cases)based on whether they received nursing intervention based on frailty prediction models.The control group received routine care,while the intervention group,on the basis of routine care,used the FRAIL scale combined with laboratory indicators(albumin,hemoglobin,etc.)to establish a predictive model to evaluate patients within 24 hours of admission,and implemented multi-dimensional targeted nursing intervention for pre-frailty or frailty patients screened out.The incidence of frailty,rebleeding rate,average length of stay,hospitalization cost,and nursing satisfaction during hospitalization were compared between the two groups.Results:The incidence of frailty during hospitalization in the intervention group was 11.1%(7 cases/63 cases),significantly lower than 31.7%(20 cases/63 cases)in the control group,and the difference was statistically significant(p<0.05).The rebleeding rate of 4.8%vs 12.7%,the average length of stay of(7.2±1.5)days vs(9.1±2.2)days,and the average hospitalization cost of(23,000±6,000)yuan vs(28,000±7,000)yuan in the intervention group were all lower than those in the control group(all p<0.05).The nursing satisfaction score of the intervention group(93.5±4.2)points was higher than that of the control group(86.3±5.8)points(p<0.05).Conclusion:The frailty prediction model applied to the peri-hospitalization care of middle-aged and elderly patients with UGIB can effectively identify frailty risk.Through early targeted intervention,the incidence of frailty and rebleeding rate can be reduced,the length of hospital stay can be shortened,medical expenses can be reduced,and nursing satisfaction can be improved,which has clinical promotion value.展开更多
Quick and accurate determination of the optimal synchrophase angle is crucial for synchrophasing control of multi-propeller aircraft with low noise.This paper proposes a novel noise prediction and optimization strateg...Quick and accurate determination of the optimal synchrophase angle is crucial for synchrophasing control of multi-propeller aircraft with low noise.This paper proposes a novel noise prediction and optimization strategy,developing a continuous and accurate noise prediction model and obtaining its minimum by solving the Hessian matrix and Fourier-Frobenius matrix.Firstly,a novel propeller noise prediction method uses acoustic simulation pressure signals and improved propeller signatures theory to accurately estimate noise for all synchrophase angles and receiving points.Secondly,a novel optimization approach is proposed to solve the analytical solution of the minimum propeller noise:(A)A noise objective function is established,and use its first derivatives’zeros and Hessian matrix to determine the function minimum.(B)A novel Euler formula transform method is proposed to convert trigonometric polynomials into algebraic polynomials,changing the zeros of the former into those of the latter.(C)Utilize the Fourier-Frobenius matrix method to solve the zeros of algebraic polynomials.To assess the computation time and accuracy,a turboprop aircraft with two six-bladed propellers was analyzed using the computational fluid dynamics and acoustic analogy method,providing acoustic pressure signals at 20 receivers for noise prediction and optimization.The Durand-Kerner and Fourier-Frobenius matrix methods were compared.Results demonstrate that improved propeller signatures theory is more accurate,and the Hessian matrix+Fourier-Frobenius matrix method is faster and more precise than the Hessian matrix+Durand-Kerner method.展开更多
To achieve low-carbon regulation of electric vehicle(EV)charging loads under the“dual carbon”goals,this paper proposes a coordinated scheduling strategy that integrates dynamic carbon factor prediction and multiobje...To achieve low-carbon regulation of electric vehicle(EV)charging loads under the“dual carbon”goals,this paper proposes a coordinated scheduling strategy that integrates dynamic carbon factor prediction and multiobjective optimization.First,a dual-convolution enhanced improved Crossformer prediction model is constructed,which employs parallel 1×1 global and 3×3 local convolutionmodules(Integrated Convolution Block,ICB)formultiscale feature extraction,combinedwith anAdaptive Spectral Block(ASB)to enhance time-series fluctuationmodeling.Based on high-precision predictions,a carbon-electricity cost joint optimization model is further designed to balance economic,environmental,and grid-friendly objectives.The model’s superiority was validated through a case study using real-world data from a renewable-heavy grid.Simulation results show that the proposed multi-objective strategy demonstrated a superior balance compared to baseline and benchmark models,achieving a 15.8%reduction in carbon emissions and a 5.2%reduction in economic costs,while still providing a substantial 22.2%reduction in the peak-valley difference.Its balanced performance significantly outperformed both a single-objective strategy and a state-of-the-art Model Predictive Control(MPC)benchmark,highlighting the advantage of a global optimization approach.This study provides theoretical and technical pathways for dynamic carbon factor-driven EV charging optimization.展开更多
Machine learning-assisted methods for rapid and accurate prediction of temperature field,mushy zone,and grain size were proposed for the heating−cooling combined mold(HCCM)horizontal continuous casting of C70250 alloy...Machine learning-assisted methods for rapid and accurate prediction of temperature field,mushy zone,and grain size were proposed for the heating−cooling combined mold(HCCM)horizontal continuous casting of C70250 alloy plates.First,finite element simulations of casting processes were carried out with various parameters to build a dataset.Subsequently,different machine learning algorithms were employed to achieve high precision in predicting temperature fields,mushy zone locations,mushy zone inclination angle,and billet grain size.Finally,the process parameters were quickly optimized using a strategy consisting of random generation,prediction,and screening,allowing the mushy zone to be controlled to the desired target.The optimized parameters are 1234℃for heating mold temperature,47 mm/min for casting speed,and 10 L/min for cooling water flow rate.The optimized mushy zone is located in the middle of the second heat insulation section and has an inclination angle of roughly 7°.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.U2342208)support from NSF/Climate Dynamics Award#2025057。
文摘Predicting monsoon climate is one of the major endeavors in climate science and is becoming increasingly challenging due to global warming. The accuracy of monsoon seasonal predictions significantly impacts the lives of billions who depend on or are affected by monsoons, as it is essential for the water cycle, food security, ecology, disaster prevention, and the economy of monsoon regions. Given the extensive literature on Asian monsoon climate prediction, we limit our focus to reviewing the seasonal prediction and predictability of the Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM). However, much of this review is also relevant to monsoon predictions in other seasons and regions. Over the past two decades, considerable progress has been made in the seasonal forecasting of the ASM, driven by an enhanced understanding of the sources of predictability and the dynamics of seasonal variability, along with advanced development in sophisticated models and technologies. This review centers on advances in understanding the physical foundation for monsoon climate prediction (section 2), significant findings and insights into the primary and regional sources of predictability arising from feedback processes among various climate components (sections 3 and 4), the effects of global warming and external forcings on predictability (section 5), developments in seasonal prediction models and techniques (section 6), the challenges and limitations of monsoon climate prediction (section 7), and emerging research trends with suggestions for future directions (section 8). We hope this review will stimulate creative activities to enhance monsoon climate prediction.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.12372045)the National Key Research and the Development Program of China(Nos.2023YFC2205900,2023YFC2205901)。
文摘This paper solves the problem of model-free dual-arm space robot maneuvering after non-cooperative target capture under high control quality requirements.The explicit system model is unavailable,and the maneuvering mission is disturbed by the measurement noise and the target adversarial behavior.To address these problems,a model-free Combined Adaptive-length Datadriven Predictive Controller(CADPC)is proposed.It consists of a separated subsystem identification method and a combined predictive control strategy.The subsystem identification method is composed of an adaptive data length,thereby reducing sensitivity to undetermined measurement noises and disturbances.Based on the subsystem identification,the combined predictive controller is established,reducing calculating resource.The stability of the CADPC is rigorously proven using the Input-to-State Stable(ISS)theorem and the small-gain theorem.Simulations demonstrate that CADPC effectively handles the model-free space robot post operation in the presence of significant disturbances,state measurement noise,and control input errors.It achieves improved steady-state accuracy,reduced steady-state control consumption,and minimized control input chattering.
文摘The objective of the current study is to investigate an adaptive predictive observer-based autopilot for a skid-to-turn(STT)missile model with uncertainties and unknown dynamic equations.A predictive control for the STT missile is designed based on nonlinear model predictive control(NMPC)using Taylor series expansion,after which,via a neural network(NN),unknown functions are approximated.The present study also evaluates an adaptive optimal observer of a new strategy-based nonlinear system.Specifically,to estimate the missile states such as normal acceleration and its derivatives for the future,originally the Taylor series states expansion was gained to any specified order,based on their receding horizons.To address the problem of prediction error,an analytic solution was prepared that led to a closed form regarding the nonlinear optimal observer.Out of the gains resulting from the analytic solution,as developed for the problem of prediction error,the selection of the proposed observer gain was optimally conducted to meet the stability condition.Thus,combining the adaptive predictive autopilot and the adaptive optimal observer scheme was implemented to secure the performance,which needed only estimated normal acceleration and its derivatives.Meanwhile,no angular velocity measurement or wind angle estimation was required.Ultimately,the proposed technique was found effective,as confirmed by the qualitative simulation results.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.52278461,52308467,and 52425213).
文摘The uneven distribution of the temperature field in the track structure,caused by various meteorological factors such as extremely low temperatures and snowfall,leads to significant temperature loads and is the primary cause of damage to China Railway Track System(CRTS)III ballastless tracks in cold regions during service.In this study,to predict the temperature of the track structure accurately,we analyzed meteorological data collected from Shenyang,China,and identified the factors that had the most effect on the track temperature field.We propose a temporal convolutional network(TCN)-based temperature field prediction model for ballastless tracks(TCN-Track model),which enhances the ability to extract and fuse local and global features from complex long-term meteorological data.The results indicate that the proposed TCN-Track model performs well in predicting track temperature fields from meteorological data,with a mean absolute error(MAE)ranging from 0.26 to 0.39,a root mean square error(RMSE)ranging from 0.32 to 0.50,and correlation coefficient(R)values ranging from 0.888 to 0.985.Compared with a long short-term memory(LSTM)model,the MAE of the TCN-Track model is reduced by 89.17%and the RMSE by 88.51%.This method offers a new solution for accurately predicting the temperature field of ballastless tracks in cold regions,aiding in predicting and preventing track damage caused by low temperatures.
基金funded by Scion's Strategic Science Investment Fund(SSIF)the Forest Growers Levy Trust(FGLT)through the Resilient Forests Programme(Task No.A89220)。
文摘Pinus radiata(D.Don)dominates New Zealand's forestry industry,constituting 91%of plantations,and is among the world's most important plantation species.Given the socio-economic and environmental importance of this species,it is important to have accurate and precise projections over time to make efficient decisions for forest management and greenfield investments in afforestation projects,especially for permanent carbon forests.Future projections of any natural resource systems rely on modeling;however,the acceleration of climate change makes future projections of yield less certain.These challenges also impact national expectations of the contribution planted forests will provide to address climate change and meet international commitments under the Paris Agreement.Using a large national-scale set of contemporary ground-measured data(2013–2023),this study investigates the performance of two growth models developed over 30 years ago that are widely used by NZ plantation growers:1)the Pumice Plateau Model 1988(PPM88)and 2)the 300-index(including a model variant of regional drift).Model simulations were made using the FORECASTER modeling suite with geographic boundaries to adjust for drift in space and time.Basal area(BA,m^(2)⋅ha^(-1))and volume(m^(3)⋅ha^(-1))were simulated,and standard errors and goodness-of-fit metrics calculated up to a typical rotation age of 30 years.Model residuals were then separated and analysed for the main plantation growing regions.The models overpredicted observed growth by between 6.8%and 16.2%,but model predictions and errors varied significantly between regions.The results of this study provided clear evidence of divergence between the outputs of both models and the measured data.Finally,this study suggests future measures to address challenges posed by these discrepancies that will provide better information for forest management and investment decisions in a changing climate.
基金supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province of China(No.ZR2024QE071).
文摘A complementary method to determine the vibration source intensity,defined as the weighted vertical acceleration level at the tunnel wall,is needed urgently when comparable measurements or database predictions are unavailable in empirical predictions.In this study,we present an analytical model designed to quickly and accurately estimate the vibration source intensity produced by moving metro trains,considering both regular and floating slab tracks.The improved periodic pipe-in-pipe(PiP)model with regular or floating slabs affixed to the tunnel invert was developed.The train loads are represented in the frequency-wavenumber domain to apply in the model.Measured track irregularities were applied and the proposed model was validated against the measured results and verified by a tunnel-soil coupled model.The proposed approach effectively and accurately assessed the vibration source intensity generated by underground trains in a prediction time of just 58 s.Track irregularities significantly affect the vibration source intensity,making them a key factor in comparable measurements or database predictions.A floating slab track can reduce the vibration source intensity by about 14 dB.The proposed approach can serve as an additional method to complement comparable measurements or database predictions for determining the vibration source intensity in empirical predictions.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2022YFC3002803)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2024YFF0808402)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42375169)。
文摘Northeast China serves as an important crop production region.Accurately forecasting summer precipitation in Northeast China(NEC-PR)has been a challenge due to its wide range of time scales influenced by varying climatic conditions.This study presents a scale separation hybrid statistical model with recurrent neural network(SS-RNN)to predict the summer monthly NEC-PR.The SS-RNN model decomposes the multiple scales of the NEC-PR into several spatiotemporal intrinsic mode functions covering annual to decadal time scales.This strategy provides a way to derive appropriate predictors and establish predictive models for the primary spatial modes of the NEC-PR at various time scales.Our results demonstrate substantial improvements by the SS-RNN model in predicting the summer monthly NEC-PR as compared with dynamic models,particularly in predicting the spatial pattern of the NEC-PR.In this paper we take August,the month of the highest NEC-PR,to assess our model skill.Independent forecasts of the August NEC-PR over the period 2021–24 achieve significant spatial anomaly correlation coefficients,reaching a maximum value of 0.83.Additional verifications by station observations show that the model hits most station anomalies,achieving a mean predictive skill score of 90.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.U2342210 and 42275043)the National Institute of Natural Hazards,Ministry of Emergency Management of China(Grant Nos.J2223806,ZDJ2024-25 and ZDJ2025-34)。
文摘Climate models are essential for understanding past,present,and future changes in atmospheric circulation,with circulation modes providing key sources of seasonal predictability and prediction uncertainties for both global and regional climates.This study assesses the performance of models participating in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project in simulating interannual variability modes of Northern Hemisphere 500-hPa geopotential height during winter and summer,distinguishing predictable(potentially predictable on seasonal or longer timescales)and unpredictable(intraseasonal and essentially unpredictable at long range)components,using reanalysis data and a variance decomposition method.Although most models effectively capture unpredictable modes in reanalysis,their ability to reproduce dominant predictable modes-specifically the Pacific-North American pattern,Arctic Oscillation,and Western Pacific Oscillation in winter,and the East Atlantic and North Atlantic Oscillations in summer-varies notably.An optimal ensemble is identified to distinguish(a)predictable-external modes,dominated by external forcing,and(b)predictable-internal modes,associated with slow internal variability,during the historical period(1950-2014)and the SSP5-8.5 scenario(2036-2100).Under increased radiative forcing,the leading winter/summer predictable-external mode exhibits a more uniform spatial distribution,remarkably larger trend and annual variance,and enhanced height-sea surface temperature(SST)covariance under SSP5-8.5 compared to historical conditions.The dominant winter/summer predictable-internal modes also exhibit increased variance and height-SST covariance under SSP5-8.5,along with localized changes in spatial configuration.Minimal changes are observed in spatial distribution or variance for dominant winter/summer unpredictable modes under SSP5-8.5.This study,from a predictive perspective,deepens our understanding of model uncertainties and projected changes in circulations.
文摘BACKGROUND Laparoscopic distal pancreatectomy(LDP)has emerged as the preferred approach for both benign and malignant lesions located in the pancreatic body and tail.Nevertheless,a notable deficiency persists in the absence of a standardized,procedure-specific metric for evaluating and comparing surgical quality.A composite measure termed“textbook outcome(TO)”,which encompasses key short-term endpoints,has been validated in laparoscopic pancreatoduodenectomy but has not yet been established in dedicated LDP cohorts.The definition and prediction of TO in this context could aid in facilitating cross-institutional benchmarking and fostering advancements in quality improvement.AIM To establish procedure-specific criteria for TO and identify independent predictors of TO failure in patients undergoing LDP.METHODS Consecutive patients who underwent LDP at a single high-volume pancreatic center between January 2015 and August 2022 were retrospectively analyzed.TO was defined as the absence of clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula(grade B/C),post-pancreatectomy hemorrhage(grade B/C),severe complications(Clavien-Dindo≥III),readmission within 30 days,and in-hospital or 30-day mortality.Multivariable logistic regression was employed to identify independent predictors of TO failure,and a nomogram was constructed and internally validated.RESULTS Among 405 eligible patients,286(70.6%)attained TO.Multivariable analysis revealed that female sex[odds ratio(OR)=0.62,95%confidence interval(CI):0.39-0.99]conferred a protective effect,while preoperative endoscopic ultrasound-guided fine-needle aspiration(OR=2.66,95%CI:1.05-6.73),pancreatic portal hypertension(OR=2.81,95%CI:1.06-7.45),and cystic-solid(OR=2.51,95%CI:1.34-4.69)or solid lesions(OR=1.91,95%CI:1.06-3.44)were independently associated with TO failure(all P<0.05).The derived nomogram exhibited modest discrimination and calibration when assessed in both the training and validation datasets.CONCLUSION The proposed LDP-specific definition of TO is feasible and discriminative,and the developed nomogram provides an objective tool for individualized risk assessment.
文摘Thermal power plants are the main contributors to greenhouse gas emissions.The prediction of the emission supports the decision makers and environmental sustainability.The objective of this study is to enhance the accuracy of emission prediction models,supporting more effective real-time monitoring and enabling informed operational decisions that align with environmental compliance efforts.This paper presents a data-driven approach for the accurate prediction of gas emissions,specifically nitrogen oxides(NOx)and carbon monoxide(CO),in natural gas power plants using an optimized hybrid machine learning framework.The proposed model integrates a Feedforward Neural Network(FFNN)trained using Particle Swarm Optimization to capture the nonlinear emission dynamics under varying gas turbine operating conditions.To further enhance predictive performance,the K-Nearest Neighbor(K-NN)algorithm serves as a post-processing method to enhance IPSO-FFNN predictions through adjustment and refinement,improving overall prediction accuracy,while Neighbor Component Analysis is used to identify and rank the most influential operational variables.The study makes a significant contribution through the combination of NCA feature selection with PSO global optimization,FFNN nonlinear modelling,and K-NN error correction into one unified system,which delivers precise emission predictions.The model was developed and tested using a real-world dataset collected from gas-fired turbine operations,with validated results demonstrating robust accuracy,achieving Root Mean Square Error values of 0.355 for CO and 0.368 for NOx.When benchmarked against conventional models such as standard FFNN,Support Vector Regression,and Long Short-Term Memory networks,the hybrid model achieved substantial improvements,up to 97.8%in Mean Squared Error,95%in Mean Absolute Error(MAE),and 85.19%in RMSE for CO;and 97.16%in MSE,93.4%in MAE,and 83.15%in RMSE for NOx.These results underscore the model’s potential for improving emission prediction,thereby supporting enhanced operational efficiency and adherence to environmental standards.
基金sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.U2442206,42205067,and 41922035)the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant No.2024YFC3013100)the Key Research Program of Frontier Sciences of CAS(Grant No.QYZDB-SSW-DQC017).
文摘This study reveals the critical role of multiscale interaction within the westerly wind bursts(WWBs)west of the MJO convection in modulating the prediction skill for the November MJO event during the DYNAMO(Dynamics of the Madden–Julian Oscillation)field campaign.The characteristics of the MJO convection envelope are obtained by the largescale precipitation tracking method,and a novel metric is introduced to quantify the prediction skill for the MJO convection in the ECMWF reforecast.The ECMWF forecast exhibits approximately 17 days in skillful prediction for the MJO convection—significantly lower than that derived from the global measure.The reforecast ensembles are further classified into high and low skill catalogs based on the mean prediction skill during the observed WWBs period.High-skill ensembles exhibit significantly enhanced low-level westerlies,amplified MJO convection,and reduced spatial separation between the low-level westerlies and MJO convection during the WWBs period,indicating stronger coupling between the large-scale circulation and the convection.Mechanistic analysis reveals that enhanced westerlies in high-skill ensembles can transfer more high-frequency energy to the MJO convection through the flux convergence of interaction energy for MJO convection development,resulting in better prediction skill.
基金J.YANG was supported by funding from the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42475022,42261144671)the National Key R&D Program of China(Project No.2024YFC3013100)+2 种基金the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central UniversitiesM.LU was supported by the Otto Poon Centre of Climate Resilience and Sustainability at HKUST and the Hong Kong Research Grant Committee(Project No.16300424)Data processing and storage were supported by the National Key Scientific and Technological Infrastructure project“Earth System Numerical Simulation Facility”(EarthLab).
文摘Precise forecasts of wildfire danger are crucial for proactive fuel management and emergency responses,yet they pose a challenge at the subseasonal scale due to limitations in prediction capabilities and a gap between forecast outputs and the needs of decision-makers.This study introduces an innovative hybrid modeling framework that integrates artificial intelligence(AI)with climate dynamic prediction systems to accurately forecast High Fire-Danger Days(HFDDs)for the following month.These HFDDs are derived from historical satellite fire data and the optimum fire danger index,with a particular focus on Southwest China as a case study.The AI module,based on the ResNet-18 neural network model,integrates observational and physically constrained analysis to establish links between HFDDs and optimal predictors of atmospheric circulation from both the concurrent and preceding months.Leveraging climate dynamical forecasting,this hybrid model provides more reliable deterministic predictions for monthly HFDDs than conventional methods that rely solely on terrestrial variables such as precipitation.More importantly,the integration of dynamical ensemble prediction enhances the model’s capability for skillful probabilistic predictions of HFDDs,facilitating the creation of customized fire danger outlooks and emergency action maps tailored to stakeholders’needs.The model’s added economic value was also evaluated,demonstrating its potential to improve decision-making in disaster management and bridge the“last-mile gap”in climate service delivery.This work contributes to the Seamless Prediction and Services for Sustainable Natural and Built Environment(SEPRESS)Program(2025–32),under the United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization(UNESCO)International Decade of Sciences for Sustainable Development(2024–33).
文摘Customer churn is the rate at which customers discontinue doing business with a company over a given time period.It is an essential measure for businesses to monitor high churn rates,as they often indicate underlying issues with services,products,or customer experience,resulting in considerable income loss.Prediction of customer churn is a crucial task aimed at retaining customers and maintaining revenue growth.Traditional machine learning(ML)models often struggle to capture complex temporal dependencies in client behavior data.To address this,an optimized deep learning(DL)approach using a Regularized Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory(RBiLSTM)model is proposed to mitigate overfitting and improve generalization error.The model integrates dropout,L2-regularization,and early stopping to enhance predictive accuracy while preventing over-reliance on specific patterns.Moreover,this study investigates the effect of optimization techniques on boosting the training efficiency of the developed model.Experimental results on a recent public customer churn dataset demonstrate that the trained model outperforms the traditional ML models and some other DL models,such as Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM)and Deep Neural Network(DNN),in churn prediction performance and stability.The proposed approach achieves 96.1%accuracy,compared with LSTM and DNN,which attain 94.5%and 94.1%accuracy,respectively.These results confirm that the proposed approach can be used as a valuable tool for businesses to identify at-risk consumers proactively and implement targeted retention strategies.
基金Funded by State Railway Administration Research Project(No.2023JS007)National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52438002)+1 种基金Research and Development Programs for Science and Technology of China Railways Corporation(No.J2023G003)New Cornerstone Science Foundation through the XPLORER PRIZE。
文摘To investigate the influence of coarse aggregate parent rock properties on the elastic modulus of concrete,the mineralogical properties and stress-strain curves of granite and dolomite parent rocks,as well as the strength and elastic modulus of mortar and concrete prepared with mechanism aggregates of the corresponding lithology,and the stress-strain curves of concrete were investigated.In this paper,a coarse aggregate and mortar matrix bonding assumption is proposed,and a prediction model for the elastic modulus of mortar is established by considering the lithology of the mechanism sand and the slurry components.An equivalent coarse aggregate elastic modulus model was established by considering factors such as coarse aggregate particle size,volume fraction,and mortar thickness between coarse aggregates.Based on the elastic modulus of the equivalent coarse aggregate and the remaining mortar,a prediction model for the elastic modulus of the two and three components of concrete in series and then in parallel was established,and the predicted values differed from the measured values within 10%.It is proposed that the coarse aggregate elastic modulus in highstrength concrete is the most critical factor affecting the elastic modulus of concrete,and as the coarse aggregate elastic modulus increases by 27.7%,the concrete elastic modulus increases by 19.5%.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program(No.2023YFC2809101)the Laoshan Laboratory Technology Innovation Project(No.LSKJ202202301)。
文摘Arctic sea ice concentration(SIC)prediction on a subseasonal scale plays an important role in polar navigation.To reduce the high uncertainty of daily forecasts,three time series prediction models are combined with empirical orthogonal function(EOF)decomposition to forecast Arctic pentad-mean SIC,where each month is divided into six pentad-means–the first five each span five days,and the last encompasses the remaining days,which may vary in length.The models were trained on SIC data from 1989 to2018 and tested from 2019 to 2023,with lead times ranging from 1 to 12 pentad-means.Model skill was evaluated based on SIC spatial patterns,sea ice area(SIA),and the sea ice edge in September from 2019 to 2023.The moving-averaged 2-m temperature helps reduce the long short-term memory model's error in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas.Based on the models'scores for each EOF time series,weighted ensemble prediction results were obtained.These results outperform two benchmark models across all lead times.In addition,the ensemble prediction better reproduces the seasonal cycle of the SIA,with relative errors ranging from 1.04%to 3.85%.The predicted September ice edge closely matches observations,with binary accuracy consistently above 90%.Forecast models show the lowest errors in the central Arctic,while relatively higher errors appear in the Barents and Kara Seas.
基金supported by the special fund of the National Clinical Key Specialty Construction Program[(2022)301-2305].
文摘BACKGROUND:This study aims to develop and validate a machine learning-based in-hospital mortality predictive model for acute aortic syndrome(AAS)in the emergency department(ED)and to derive a simplifi ed version suitable for rapid clinical application.METHODS:In this multi-center retrospective cohort study,AAS patient data from three hospitals were analyzed.The modeling cohort included data from the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University and the People’s Hospital of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,with Peking University Third Hospital data serving as the external test set.Four machine learning algorithms—logistic regression(LR),multilayer perceptron(MLP),Gaussian naive Bayes(GNB),and random forest(RF)—were used to develop predictive models based on 34 early-accessible clinical variables.A simplifi ed model was then derived based on fi ve key variables(Stanford type,pericardial eff usion,asymmetric peripheral arterial pulsation,decreased bowel sounds,and dyspnea)via Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator(LASSO)regression to improve ED applicability.RESULTS:A total of 929 patients were included in the modeling cohort,and 210 were included in the external test set.Four machine learning models based on 34 clinical variables were developed,achieving internal and external validation AUCs of 0.85-0.90 and 0.73-0.85,respectively.The simplifi ed model incorporating fi ve key variables demonstrated internal and external validation AUCs of 0.71-0.86 and 0.75-0.78,respectively.Both models showed robust calibration and predictive stability across datasets.CONCLUSION:Both kinds of models were built based on machine learning tools,and proved to have certain prediction performance and extrapolation.
基金Construction and Application of Frailty Trajectory Prediction Model for Middle-aged and Elderly Patients with Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding,Project Source:Sichuan Vocational College of Nursing(Project No.:2024ZRY25)。
文摘Objective:To investigate the impact of targeted nursing interventions based on frailty prediction models on peri-hospitalization clinical outcomes in middle-aged and elderly patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding(UGIB).Methods:A prospective cohort study was conducted,and 126 middle-aged and elderly patients with UGIB admitted from August 2024 to August 2025 were selected as the study subjects.The patients were divided into the intervention group(63 cases)and the control group(63 cases)based on whether they received nursing intervention based on frailty prediction models.The control group received routine care,while the intervention group,on the basis of routine care,used the FRAIL scale combined with laboratory indicators(albumin,hemoglobin,etc.)to establish a predictive model to evaluate patients within 24 hours of admission,and implemented multi-dimensional targeted nursing intervention for pre-frailty or frailty patients screened out.The incidence of frailty,rebleeding rate,average length of stay,hospitalization cost,and nursing satisfaction during hospitalization were compared between the two groups.Results:The incidence of frailty during hospitalization in the intervention group was 11.1%(7 cases/63 cases),significantly lower than 31.7%(20 cases/63 cases)in the control group,and the difference was statistically significant(p<0.05).The rebleeding rate of 4.8%vs 12.7%,the average length of stay of(7.2±1.5)days vs(9.1±2.2)days,and the average hospitalization cost of(23,000±6,000)yuan vs(28,000±7,000)yuan in the intervention group were all lower than those in the control group(all p<0.05).The nursing satisfaction score of the intervention group(93.5±4.2)points was higher than that of the control group(86.3±5.8)points(p<0.05).Conclusion:The frailty prediction model applied to the peri-hospitalization care of middle-aged and elderly patients with UGIB can effectively identify frailty risk.Through early targeted intervention,the incidence of frailty and rebleeding rate can be reduced,the length of hospital stay can be shortened,medical expenses can be reduced,and nursing satisfaction can be improved,which has clinical promotion value.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.51576097,51976089)the Funding for Outstanding Doctoral Dissertation in Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,China(No.BCXJ24-05)the Aeronautical Science Foundation of China(No.2023L060052001).
文摘Quick and accurate determination of the optimal synchrophase angle is crucial for synchrophasing control of multi-propeller aircraft with low noise.This paper proposes a novel noise prediction and optimization strategy,developing a continuous and accurate noise prediction model and obtaining its minimum by solving the Hessian matrix and Fourier-Frobenius matrix.Firstly,a novel propeller noise prediction method uses acoustic simulation pressure signals and improved propeller signatures theory to accurately estimate noise for all synchrophase angles and receiving points.Secondly,a novel optimization approach is proposed to solve the analytical solution of the minimum propeller noise:(A)A noise objective function is established,and use its first derivatives’zeros and Hessian matrix to determine the function minimum.(B)A novel Euler formula transform method is proposed to convert trigonometric polynomials into algebraic polynomials,changing the zeros of the former into those of the latter.(C)Utilize the Fourier-Frobenius matrix method to solve the zeros of algebraic polynomials.To assess the computation time and accuracy,a turboprop aircraft with two six-bladed propellers was analyzed using the computational fluid dynamics and acoustic analogy method,providing acoustic pressure signals at 20 receivers for noise prediction and optimization.The Durand-Kerner and Fourier-Frobenius matrix methods were compared.Results demonstrate that improved propeller signatures theory is more accurate,and the Hessian matrix+Fourier-Frobenius matrix method is faster and more precise than the Hessian matrix+Durand-Kerner method.
基金Supported by State Grid Corporation of China Science and Technology Project:Research on Key Technologies for Intelligent Carbon Metrology in Vehicle-to-Grid Interaction(Project Number:B3018524000Q).
文摘To achieve low-carbon regulation of electric vehicle(EV)charging loads under the“dual carbon”goals,this paper proposes a coordinated scheduling strategy that integrates dynamic carbon factor prediction and multiobjective optimization.First,a dual-convolution enhanced improved Crossformer prediction model is constructed,which employs parallel 1×1 global and 3×3 local convolutionmodules(Integrated Convolution Block,ICB)formultiscale feature extraction,combinedwith anAdaptive Spectral Block(ASB)to enhance time-series fluctuationmodeling.Based on high-precision predictions,a carbon-electricity cost joint optimization model is further designed to balance economic,environmental,and grid-friendly objectives.The model’s superiority was validated through a case study using real-world data from a renewable-heavy grid.Simulation results show that the proposed multi-objective strategy demonstrated a superior balance compared to baseline and benchmark models,achieving a 15.8%reduction in carbon emissions and a 5.2%reduction in economic costs,while still providing a substantial 22.2%reduction in the peak-valley difference.Its balanced performance significantly outperformed both a single-objective strategy and a state-of-the-art Model Predictive Control(MPC)benchmark,highlighting the advantage of a global optimization approach.This study provides theoretical and technical pathways for dynamic carbon factor-driven EV charging optimization.
基金financially supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (No. 2023YFB3812601)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51925401)the Young Elite Scientists Sponsorship Program by CAST, China (No. 2022QNRC001)。
文摘Machine learning-assisted methods for rapid and accurate prediction of temperature field,mushy zone,and grain size were proposed for the heating−cooling combined mold(HCCM)horizontal continuous casting of C70250 alloy plates.First,finite element simulations of casting processes were carried out with various parameters to build a dataset.Subsequently,different machine learning algorithms were employed to achieve high precision in predicting temperature fields,mushy zone locations,mushy zone inclination angle,and billet grain size.Finally,the process parameters were quickly optimized using a strategy consisting of random generation,prediction,and screening,allowing the mushy zone to be controlled to the desired target.The optimized parameters are 1234℃for heating mold temperature,47 mm/min for casting speed,and 10 L/min for cooling water flow rate.The optimized mushy zone is located in the middle of the second heat insulation section and has an inclination angle of roughly 7°.
