Based on the borehole strainmeter recordings immediately before the strong earthquakes （Ms〉7.5） during the period from 2001 to 2005 observed at the Taian observation station, Shandong Province, the authors make a s...Based on the borehole strainmeter recordings immediately before the strong earthquakes （Ms〉7.5） during the period from 2001 to 2005 observed at the Taian observation station, Shandong Province, the authors make a systematic and objective examination of the precursor waves of the quakes. The effects of Earth tides with periods larger than 128 min are eliminated through high-pass filtering; and atmospheric-pressure inferences are removed by linear regression. The 2-128 min signals are then separated into six frequency bands by employing the wavelet method. Results indicate that the wavelet method is capable of picking out information of weak variations in the signals. According to the characteristics of the ＇precursor waves＇ obtained from wavelet transformation, the method of overrun ratio analysis is put forward for examination. All the detailed components of the wavelets have been analyzed. For the time series of the overrun rate in all these components, statisitical calculation has been made for the slopes of fit curves, and mean values and standard deviations were obtained and positive-negative slope ratios were analyzed. The three statistical data show that ＇precursor waves＇ are not widely recorded by borehole strainmeter within 15 days before remote strong earthquakes.展开更多
Taking five underground water level observation wells with high earthquake response capability and located in Shanxi,Hebei and Inner Mongolia as study objects,this paper studies and discusses the generality of precurs...Taking five underground water level observation wells with high earthquake response capability and located in Shanxi,Hebei and Inner Mongolia as study objects,this paper studies and discusses the generality of precursor waves in well water levels before strong earthquakes. It is indicated that the precursor waves often happen before strong earthquakes,with the ratio of occurrence up to 65% ( 41 /63 ) ; the precursor waves have poor generality in different observation wells,which may be related to the different well-aquifer system of different observation wells and the different source parameters of earthquakes. Compared to the seismic water level fluctuations in a single well,the number of precursor wave times recorded in well water levels before strong earthquakes is slightly less than that of seismic water level fluctuations,with a ratio between 39. 7% and 50. 7%, respectively. The number of observation wells with precursor wave recordings before earthquakes accounts for up to 66. 7% of the total number of observation wells. The precursor wave in well water level records has a certain generality in terms of the number of times recorded and the spatial distribution,except for its manifestation characteristics.展开更多
Choosing the Jingle well in Shanxi as the research object, this paper discusses the reproducibility problem of well water level precursor waves. The results show that the start time and fluctuation cycle before simila...Choosing the Jingle well in Shanxi as the research object, this paper discusses the reproducibility problem of well water level precursor waves. The results show that the start time and fluctuation cycle before similar earthquakes are highly reproducible,the ratio of which is up to 63. 1%. The fluctuation form and amplitude before some similar earthquakes are of certain similarity,but earthquakes with all precursor wave features being similar were not found in the research scope. The reason may be related to the origin and transmission route of the precursor wave as well as the properties of the seismic source area of similar earthquakes.展开更多
A new concept of pseudo mean wave resistance is introduced to find theoretical mean wave resistances of the precursor soliton generation in two-layer how over a localized topography at near-resonance in this paper. Th...A new concept of pseudo mean wave resistance is introduced to find theoretical mean wave resistances of the precursor soliton generation in two-layer how over a localized topography at near-resonance in this paper. The pseudo mean wave resistance of the precursor soliton generation of two-layer how is determined in terms of the AfKdV equation. From the theoretical results it is shown that the theoretical mean wave resistance is equal to the pseudo mean wave resistance times 1/m(1), where m(1) is the coefficient of the fKdV equation. From the regional distribution of the energy of the precursor soliton generation at the resonant points, it is shown that ratios of the theoretical mean wave resistance and regional mean energy to the total mean energy are invariant constants, i.e. <(E)over circle (1)>/(E) over circle : <(E)over circle (2)>/(E) over circle: <(E)over circle (3)>(E) over circle :< D > /(E) over circle = (1/2) : (-1/2) : 1 : 1, in which <(E)over circle 1>,<(E)over circle (2)> and <(E)over circle (3)> are the mean energy of the generating regions of the precursor solitons, of the depression and of the trailing wavetrain at the resonant points respectively, (E) over circle and < D > are the total energy of the system and the theoretical mean wave resistance at the resonant points. A prediction of the theoretical mean wave resistances of two-layer how over the semicircular topography is carried out in terms of the theoretical results of the present paper. The comparison shows that the theoretical mean wave resistance is in good agreement with the numerical calculation.展开更多
The mechanism of precursor ionization ahead of strong shock waves has been studied in a low density shock tube. The experimental results are illustrated with Arrhenius plots with kink points dividing them into two par...The mechanism of precursor ionization ahead of strong shock waves has been studied in a low density shock tube. The experimental results are illustrated with Arrhenius plots with kink points dividing them into two parts with apparent activation energy ratio 1:2, namely with the values 7.7 eV and 15.3 eV, and varying with first and third power of the density respectively. A model is proposed to interpret the facts where the process taking place in the precursor region is a two step photo ionization accompanied with the drift flow effect of the gas relative to the shock wave or the ionization recombination effect according to whether the shock speed and initial density are low enough. The product of the A-A collision excitation cross section coefficient S* multiplied by the radiation cross section Q of Argon S×Q=1×10^(-36)(cm^4eV^(-1)) and the three body recombination coefficient of Argon at room temperature k_(ra)=1×10^(-24)(cm^(-6)s^(-1)).展开更多
We statistically validate the 2011-2022 earthquake prediction records of Ada, the sixth finalist of the 2nd China AETA in 2021, who made 147 earthquake predictions (including 60% of magnitude 5.5 earthquakes) with a p...We statistically validate the 2011-2022 earthquake prediction records of Ada, the sixth finalist of the 2nd China AETA in 2021, who made 147 earthquake predictions (including 60% of magnitude 5.5 earthquakes) with a prediction accuracy higher than 70% and a confidence level of 95% over a 12-year period. Since the reliable earthquake precursor signals described by Ada and the characteristics of Alfvén waves match quite well, this paper proposes a hypothesis on how earthquakes are triggered based on the Alfvén (Q G) torsional wave model of Gillette et al. When the plume of the upper mantle column intrudes into the magma and lithosphere of the soft flow layer during the exchange of hot and cold molten material masses deep inside the Earth’s interior during ascent and descent, it is possible to form body and surface plasma sheets under certain conditions to form Alfven nonlinear isolated waves, and Alfven waves often perturb the geomagnetic field, releasing huge heat and kinetic energy thus triggering earthquakes. To explain the complex phenomenon of how Ada senses Alvfen waves and how to locate epicenters, we venture to speculate that special magnetosensory cells in a few human bodies can sense earthquake precursors and attempt to hypothesize an algorithm that analyzes how the human biological nervous system encodes and decodes earthquake precursors and explains how human magnetosensory cells can solve complex problems such as predicting earthquake magnitude and locating epicenters.展开更多
There have been published many papers on VLF (very low frequency) characteristics to study seismo-ionospheric perturbations. Usually VLF records (amplitude and/or phase) are used to investigate mainly the temporal evo...There have been published many papers on VLF (very low frequency) characteristics to study seismo-ionospheric perturbations. Usually VLF records (amplitude and/or phase) are used to investigate mainly the temporal evolution of VLF propagation anomalies with special attention to one particular propagation path. The most important advantage of this paper is the simultaneous use of several propagation paths. A succession of earthquakes (EQs) happened in the Kumamoto area in Kyusyu Island;two strong foreshocks with magnitude of 6.5 and 6.4 on 14 April (UT) and the main shock with magnitude 7.3 on 15 April (UT). Because the EQ epicenters are not far from the VLF transmitter (with the call sign of JJI in Miyazaki prefecture), we can utilize simultaneously 8 observing stations of our network all over Japan. Together with the use of theoretical computations based on wave-hop theory, we try to trace both the temporal and spatial evolutions of the ionospheric perturbation associated with this succession of EQs. It is found that the ionospheric perturbation begins to appear about two weeks before the EQs, and this perturbation becomes most developed 5 - 3 days before the main shock. When the perturbation is most disturbed, the maximum change in vertical direction is depletion in the VLF effective ionospheric height of the order of 10 km, and its horizontal scale (or its radius) is about 1000 km. These spatio-temporal changes of the seismo-ionospheric perturbation will be investigated in details in the discus-sion, a comparison has made with the VLF characteristics of the 1995 Kobe with the same magnitude and of the same fault-type, and a brief discussion on the generation mechanism of seismo-ionospheric perturbation is finally made.展开更多
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (40374011)Joint Seismological Science Foundation of China (1040037)
文摘Based on the borehole strainmeter recordings immediately before the strong earthquakes （Ms〉7.5） during the period from 2001 to 2005 observed at the Taian observation station, Shandong Province, the authors make a systematic and objective examination of the precursor waves of the quakes. The effects of Earth tides with periods larger than 128 min are eliminated through high-pass filtering; and atmospheric-pressure inferences are removed by linear regression. The 2-128 min signals are then separated into six frequency bands by employing the wavelet method. Results indicate that the wavelet method is capable of picking out information of weak variations in the signals. According to the characteristics of the ＇precursor waves＇ obtained from wavelet transformation, the method of overrun ratio analysis is put forward for examination. All the detailed components of the wavelets have been analyzed. For the time series of the overrun rate in all these components, statisitical calculation has been made for the slopes of fit curves, and mean values and standard deviations were obtained and positive-negative slope ratios were analyzed. The three statistical data show that ＇precursor waves＇ are not widely recorded by borehole strainmeter within 15 days before remote strong earthquakes.
基金supported jointly by the Joint Earthquake Science Foundation (A08051)Shanxi provincial key scientific and technological project (2006031106)+1 种基金Shanxi provincial natural science foundation project (2011011027)the earthquake trend tracing for 2011 (2011011401)
文摘Taking five underground water level observation wells with high earthquake response capability and located in Shanxi,Hebei and Inner Mongolia as study objects,this paper studies and discusses the generality of precursor waves in well water levels before strong earthquakes. It is indicated that the precursor waves often happen before strong earthquakes,with the ratio of occurrence up to 65% ( 41 /63 ) ; the precursor waves have poor generality in different observation wells,which may be related to the different well-aquifer system of different observation wells and the different source parameters of earthquakes. Compared to the seismic water level fluctuations in a single well,the number of precursor wave times recorded in well water levels before strong earthquakes is slightly less than that of seismic water level fluctuations,with a ratio between 39. 7% and 50. 7%, respectively. The number of observation wells with precursor wave recordings before earthquakes accounts for up to 66. 7% of the total number of observation wells. The precursor wave in well water level records has a certain generality in terms of the number of times recorded and the spatial distribution,except for its manifestation characteristics.
基金funded by Science and Technology Tackling Project of Shanxi Province ( 2006031106)the Joint Earthquake Science Foundation of China Earthquake Administration( A08051)Natural Sciences Foundation of Shanxi Province ( 2011011027)
文摘Choosing the Jingle well in Shanxi as the research object, this paper discusses the reproducibility problem of well water level precursor waves. The results show that the start time and fluctuation cycle before similar earthquakes are highly reproducible,the ratio of which is up to 63. 1%. The fluctuation form and amplitude before some similar earthquakes are of certain similarity,but earthquakes with all precursor wave features being similar were not found in the research scope. The reason may be related to the origin and transmission route of the precursor wave as well as the properties of the seismic source area of similar earthquakes.
基金The project supported by the Foundation of The State Education Commission"The Dynamics of Upper Ocean"and the Grants of The Physical Oceanography Laboratory of Ocean University of Qingdao
文摘A new concept of pseudo mean wave resistance is introduced to find theoretical mean wave resistances of the precursor soliton generation in two-layer how over a localized topography at near-resonance in this paper. The pseudo mean wave resistance of the precursor soliton generation of two-layer how is determined in terms of the AfKdV equation. From the theoretical results it is shown that the theoretical mean wave resistance is equal to the pseudo mean wave resistance times 1/m(1), where m(1) is the coefficient of the fKdV equation. From the regional distribution of the energy of the precursor soliton generation at the resonant points, it is shown that ratios of the theoretical mean wave resistance and regional mean energy to the total mean energy are invariant constants, i.e. <(E)over circle (1)>/(E) over circle : <(E)over circle (2)>/(E) over circle: <(E)over circle (3)>(E) over circle :< D > /(E) over circle = (1/2) : (-1/2) : 1 : 1, in which <(E)over circle 1>,<(E)over circle (2)> and <(E)over circle (3)> are the mean energy of the generating regions of the precursor solitons, of the depression and of the trailing wavetrain at the resonant points respectively, (E) over circle and < D > are the total energy of the system and the theoretical mean wave resistance at the resonant points. A prediction of the theoretical mean wave resistances of two-layer how over the semicircular topography is carried out in terms of the theoretical results of the present paper. The comparison shows that the theoretical mean wave resistance is in good agreement with the numerical calculation.
基金The project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘The mechanism of precursor ionization ahead of strong shock waves has been studied in a low density shock tube. The experimental results are illustrated with Arrhenius plots with kink points dividing them into two parts with apparent activation energy ratio 1:2, namely with the values 7.7 eV and 15.3 eV, and varying with first and third power of the density respectively. A model is proposed to interpret the facts where the process taking place in the precursor region is a two step photo ionization accompanied with the drift flow effect of the gas relative to the shock wave or the ionization recombination effect according to whether the shock speed and initial density are low enough. The product of the A-A collision excitation cross section coefficient S* multiplied by the radiation cross section Q of Argon S×Q=1×10^(-36)(cm^4eV^(-1)) and the three body recombination coefficient of Argon at room temperature k_(ra)=1×10^(-24)(cm^(-6)s^(-1)).
文摘We statistically validate the 2011-2022 earthquake prediction records of Ada, the sixth finalist of the 2nd China AETA in 2021, who made 147 earthquake predictions (including 60% of magnitude 5.5 earthquakes) with a prediction accuracy higher than 70% and a confidence level of 95% over a 12-year period. Since the reliable earthquake precursor signals described by Ada and the characteristics of Alfvén waves match quite well, this paper proposes a hypothesis on how earthquakes are triggered based on the Alfvén (Q G) torsional wave model of Gillette et al. When the plume of the upper mantle column intrudes into the magma and lithosphere of the soft flow layer during the exchange of hot and cold molten material masses deep inside the Earth’s interior during ascent and descent, it is possible to form body and surface plasma sheets under certain conditions to form Alfven nonlinear isolated waves, and Alfven waves often perturb the geomagnetic field, releasing huge heat and kinetic energy thus triggering earthquakes. To explain the complex phenomenon of how Ada senses Alvfen waves and how to locate epicenters, we venture to speculate that special magnetosensory cells in a few human bodies can sense earthquake precursors and attempt to hypothesize an algorithm that analyzes how the human biological nervous system encodes and decodes earthquake precursors and explains how human magnetosensory cells can solve complex problems such as predicting earthquake magnitude and locating epicenters.
文摘There have been published many papers on VLF (very low frequency) characteristics to study seismo-ionospheric perturbations. Usually VLF records (amplitude and/or phase) are used to investigate mainly the temporal evolution of VLF propagation anomalies with special attention to one particular propagation path. The most important advantage of this paper is the simultaneous use of several propagation paths. A succession of earthquakes (EQs) happened in the Kumamoto area in Kyusyu Island;two strong foreshocks with magnitude of 6.5 and 6.4 on 14 April (UT) and the main shock with magnitude 7.3 on 15 April (UT). Because the EQ epicenters are not far from the VLF transmitter (with the call sign of JJI in Miyazaki prefecture), we can utilize simultaneously 8 observing stations of our network all over Japan. Together with the use of theoretical computations based on wave-hop theory, we try to trace both the temporal and spatial evolutions of the ionospheric perturbation associated with this succession of EQs. It is found that the ionospheric perturbation begins to appear about two weeks before the EQs, and this perturbation becomes most developed 5 - 3 days before the main shock. When the perturbation is most disturbed, the maximum change in vertical direction is depletion in the VLF effective ionospheric height of the order of 10 km, and its horizontal scale (or its radius) is about 1000 km. These spatio-temporal changes of the seismo-ionospheric perturbation will be investigated in details in the discus-sion, a comparison has made with the VLF characteristics of the 1995 Kobe with the same magnitude and of the same fault-type, and a brief discussion on the generation mechanism of seismo-ionospheric perturbation is finally made.
