Iodine is an essential element for the synthesis of thyroid hormones.Iodine deficiency increases the burden on thyroid function and causes harm to health.The identification of convenient and reliable biomarkers for as...Iodine is an essential element for the synthesis of thyroid hormones.Iodine deficiency increases the burden on thyroid function and causes harm to health.The identification of convenient and reliable biomarkers for assessing iodine nutritional status is essential for evaluating iodine intake.Urinary iodine concentration(UIC)is commonly used for population level iodine status assessment but is less reliable for individuals.A 24-h urine sample is more accurate but difficult to collect[1].Thyroid volume(Tvol)and goiter rate are suitable for evaluating the long-term iodine nutritional status in populations[2].Blood indicator collection is an invasive procedure.展开更多
The spatial distribution of urban population can reflect significantly urban functions and development status. Shenyang, as a typical old industrial city in China, has experienced considerable changes in spatial distr...The spatial distribution of urban population can reflect significantly urban functions and development status. Shenyang, as a typical old industrial city in China, has experienced considerable changes in spatial distribution of population in the process of urban transformation, resulting in the change of urban spatial structure. Based on the sub-district data of Chinese national population censuses in 1982, 1990 and 2000, this study simulates the evolution pattern of spatial distribution of urban population in Shenyang City. Using statistical method and exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA), we found that the population distribution, on the whole, has presented a balanced and decentralized trend since the 1980s, which characterizes with Chinese suburbanization. Furthermore, based on the investigation of the pattern of population distribution, it is concluded that the negative exponential model fitted the distribution best, and population concentration in the inner suburb kept increasing gradually, meanwhile, the spatial structure of population distribution has presented a polycentric feature since the 1980s. The parameters of the model show that population in the urban core concentrate significantly all the time. The increase of population in the inner suburb influences the population distribution pattern more and more importantly, but the concentration intensity of population cores in inner suburb is still low.展开更多
The article established the HDRICE model by modifying the structure of the ORYZA1 model and revising its parameters by field experiments. The HDRICE model consists of the modules of morphological development of rice, ...The article established the HDRICE model by modifying the structure of the ORYZA1 model and revising its parameters by field experiments. The HDRICE model consists of the modules of morphological development of rice, daily dry matter accumulation and partitioning, daily CO2 assimilation of the canopy, leaf area, and tiller development. The model preferably simulated the dynamic rice development because of the thorough integration of the effects of temperature and light on the rates of rice development, photosynthesis, respiration, and. other ecophysiological processes. In addition, this model has attainable grain yield in the test experiment that showed the potential yield of cultivar Xieyou 46 ranged from 11 to 13 tons ha-~. Besides, the model was used to optimize the combinations of the transplanting date, seedling age and density for cultivar Xieyou 46 at Jinhua area, and the population quantitative indices to attain the potential yield such as maximum stems, effective panicles, filled grain number/leaf area, and so on. The result showed that the combination of transplanting date on July 25, seedling age of 35 days and base seedling density of 1.33 x 106ha-1 is the optimum combination for the second hybrid rice production in Jinhua County, China. And the maximum stems, the effective panicles, the filled grain per panicle, the peak of optimum LAI, LAI in later filling stage, and the filled grain number/leaf were 6.03×10^6ha, 3.99×10^6ha, 119.2, 8.59, 5-6, and 0.64, respectively.展开更多
Population synthesis studies into planet formation have suggested that distributions consistent with observations can only be reproduced if the actual Type Ⅰ migration timescale is at least an order of magnitude long...Population synthesis studies into planet formation have suggested that distributions consistent with observations can only be reproduced if the actual Type Ⅰ migration timescale is at least an order of magnitude longer than that deduced from linear theories.Although past studies considered the effect of the Type I migration of protoplanetary embryos,in most cases they used a conventional formula based on static torques in isothermal disks,and employed a reduction factor to account for uncertainty in the mechanism details.However,in addition to static torques,a migrating planet experiences dynamic torques that are proportional to the migration rate.These dynamic torques can impact on planet migration and predicted planetary populations.In this study,we derived a new torque formula for Type Ⅰ migration by taking into account dynamic corrections.This formula was used to perform population synthesis simulations with and without the effect of dynamic torques.In many cases,inward migration was slowed significantly by the dynamic effects.For the static torque case,gas giant formation was effectively suppressed by Type I migration;however,when dynamic effects were considered,a substantial fraction of cores survived and grew into gas giants.展开更多
Computer simulation models are widely applied in various areas of the health care sector, including the spread of infectious diseases. Patch models involve explicit movements of people between distinct locations. The ...Computer simulation models are widely applied in various areas of the health care sector, including the spread of infectious diseases. Patch models involve explicit movements of people between distinct locations. The aim of the present work has been designed and explored a patch model with population mobility between different patches and between each patch and an external population. The authors considered a SIR （susceptible-infected-recovered） scheme. The model was explored by computer simulations. The results show how endemic levels are reached in all patches of the system. Furthermore, the performed explorations suggest that the people mobility between patches, the immigration from outside the system and the infection rate in each patch, are factors that may influence the dynamics of epidemics and should be considered in health policy planning.展开更多
This paper outlines the fundamentals of a consistent theory of numerical modelling of a population system under study. The focus is on the systematic work to construct an executable simulation model. There are six fun...This paper outlines the fundamentals of a consistent theory of numerical modelling of a population system under study. The focus is on the systematic work to construct an executable simulation model. There are six fundamental choices of model category and model constituents to make. These choices have a profound impact on how the model is structured, what can be studied, possible introduction of bias, lucidity and comprehensibility, size, expandability, performance of the model, required information about the system studied and its range of validity. The first choice concerns a discrete versus a continuous description of the population system under study—a choice that leads to different model categories. The second choice is the model representation (based on agents, entities, compartments or situations) used to describe the properties and behaviours of the objects in the studied population. Third, incomplete information about structure, transitions, signals, initial conditions or parameter values in the system under study must be addressed by alternative structures and statistical means. Fourth, the purpose of the study must be explicitly formulated in terms of the quantities used in the model. Fifth, irrespective of the choice of representation, there are three possible types of time handling: Event Scheduling, Time Slicing or Micro Time Slicing. Sixth, start and termination criteria for the simulation must be stated. The termination can be at a fixed end time or determined by a logical condition. Population models can thereby be classified within a unified framework, and population models of one type can be translated into another type in a consistent way. Understanding the pros and cons for different choices of model category, representation, time handling etc. will help the modeller to select the most appropriate type of model for a given purpose and population system under study. By understanding the rules for consistent population modelling, an appropriate model can be created in a systematic way and a number of pitfalls can be avoided.展开更多
Trawl is a main fishing gear in Chinese fishery,capturing large fish and letting small ones at large.However,long-term use of trawl would result in changes of phenotypic traits of the fish stocks,such as smaller size-...Trawl is a main fishing gear in Chinese fishery,capturing large fish and letting small ones at large.However,long-term use of trawl would result in changes of phenotypic traits of the fish stocks,such as smaller size-at-age and earlier age-at-maturation.In this study,we simulated a fish population with size characteristics of trawl fishing and the population produces one generation of offspring and lives for one year,used trawl to exploit the simulated fish population,and captured individuals by body size.We evaluated the impact of the changes on selectivity parameters,such as selective range and the length at 50% retention.Under fishing pressure,we specified the selectivity parameters,and determined that smaller selection rates and greater length at 50% retention were associated with an increased tendency towards miniaturization.展开更多
This paper proposes a resampling simulator that will calculate probabilities of detecting invasive species infesting hosts that occur in large numbers. Different methods were examined to determine the bias of observed...This paper proposes a resampling simulator that will calculate probabilities of detecting invasive species infesting hosts that occur in large numbers. Different methods were examined to determine the bias of observed cumulative distribution functions (c.d.f.s), generated from prototype resampling simulators. One involved seeing if they matched theoretical c.d.f.s, which were generated using formulae for calculating the probability of the union of many events (union formulae), which are known to be correct. Others involved assessing the bias of observed c.d.f.s, generated from using prototype resampling simulators operating on much larger simulated populations, when computation of theoretical c.d.f.s from the union formulae was not practical. Examples are given for using the proposed resampling simulator for detecting an invasive insect pest within the context of an invasive species management system.展开更多
In this paper, a three level characteristic difference scheme is proposed for the model of age structured population with history dependent mortality and natality. It is proved that the scheme is second order converge...In this paper, a three level characteristic difference scheme is proposed for the model of age structured population with history dependent mortality and natality. It is proved that the scheme is second order convergent in the discrete l ∞ norm.展开更多
This paper tries to present another theoretical view in the study of population geography by applying the principle of artificial neural network.It is our view that the approach to population geography study is of two...This paper tries to present another theoretical view in the study of population geography by applying the principle of artificial neural network.It is our view that the approach to population geography study is of two kinds so far: the synthetic analysis and An2 synthetic analysis.展开更多
The purpose of this study is to analyze the population dynamics of loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) affected by localized oil spills. Methods include development of a spatial, stage-classified matrix model par...The purpose of this study is to analyze the population dynamics of loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) affected by localized oil spills. Methods include development of a spatial, stage-classified matrix model parameterized for the following primary loggerhead populations: Gulf of Mexico, western North Atlantic Ocean, and Florida peninsula. Oil spills are simulated deterministically in each population's nesting region, with 1) oil-induced mortality ranging from 25% to 100% and 2) stage classes affected either proportionally or equally. A transient sensitivity analysis was performed to determine the parameters most influential to the population growth rate. Results suggest that increased protection and understanding of young sea turtles found in the Sargasso Sea is essential to the survival of the species. In addition, findings provide insights into the population dynamics of the At- lantic loggerhead turtles and identify conservation measures appropriate in each oil spill case.展开更多
An analytical solution is derived for the probability that a random pair of individuals from a panmictic population of size N will share ancestors who lived G generations previously. The analysis is extended to obtain...An analytical solution is derived for the probability that a random pair of individuals from a panmictic population of size N will share ancestors who lived G generations previously. The analysis is extended to obtain 1) the probability that a sample of size s will contain at least one pair of (G - 1)<sup>th</sup> cousins;and 2) the expected number of pairs of (G - 1)<sup>th</sup> cousins in that sample. Solutions are given for both monogamous and promiscuous (non-monogamous) cases. Simulation results for a population size of N = 20,000 closely approximate the analytical expectations. Simulation results also agree very well with previously derived expectations for the proportion of unrelated individuals in a sample. The analysis is broadly consistent with genetic estimates of relatedness among a sample of 406 Danish school children, but suggests that a different genetic study of a heterogenous sample of Europeans overestimates the frequency of cousin pairs by as much as one order of magnitude.展开更多
This study presents a mathematical modelling approach to analyze the impact of family planning interventions on population growth dynamics.Using a compartmental model,the population is divided into six groups:Suscepti...This study presents a mathematical modelling approach to analyze the impact of family planning interventions on population growth dynamics.Using a compartmental model,the population is divided into six groups:Susceptible,Informed,Sexually Active Non-Users,Contraceptive Users,Non-Users and General Population.The model incorporates differential equations to describe transitions among these compartments,influenced by factors such as sexual behavior,contraceptive adoption,and public health education.Analytical techniques,including equilibrium analysis and the computation of the basic reproductive number were used to evaluate the model’s behavior and stability.Numerical simulations conducted in MATLAB revealed that increased contraceptive usage and awareness significantly reduce the number of high-risk individuals while stabilizing overall population growth.The reproductive number was shown to decrease as contraceptive uptake increased,confirming the effectiveness of intervention strategies.The findings highlight the importance of reproductive health education and contraceptive access in managing population growth,providing valuable insights for policymakers and public health planners.This study demonstrates the potential of mathematical modelling as a predictive and policy-support tool in reproductive health and demographic planning.展开更多
Objective To measure the impact of each type of exercise on sleep quality and identify the exercise that enhances sleep quality the most.Study selection Eligible randomised controlled trials that compare physical exer...Objective To measure the impact of each type of exercise on sleep quality and identify the exercise that enhances sleep quality the most.Study selection Eligible randomised controlled trials that compare physical exercise to routine activities,usual care,non-physical activity,or health education to measure the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index.Data source Studies retrieved from Medline,Embase,CINAHL,Scopus,ClinicalTrial.gov and ThaiJo from the database’s inception to October 2022.Data extraction and synthesis Two reviewers independently identified studies,collected data and assessed bias.In the absence of heterogeneity,a fixed effect model was used for pairwise meta-analysis.Alternatively,a random effect model was used.A two-stage network meta-analysis used the surface under the cumulative ranking curve(SUCRA)to compare exercise efficacy.Main outcome Global Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index(GPSQI)and subdomain score.Results This review comprised 2170 people from 25 trials.Direct meta-analysis revealed significant improvement in GPSQI with combined exercise(unstandardised mean difference(USMD)−2.35,95%CI−3.13 to-1.57,p<0.001,I^(2)=69.13%).GPSQI decreased considerably with aerobic activity(USMD−4.36,95%CI−7.86 to-0.86,p=0.01,I^(2)=97.83%).For the network meta-analysis,strengthening,aerobic and combination exercise significantly lowered GPSQI(USMD−5.75,-3.76 and−2.54,respectively).Strength training improved GPSQI scores most effectively(SUCRA 94.6%).Conclusion Exercise that strengthens muscles,rather than aerobic or combination exercises,is the most effective way to enhance sleep quality.展开更多
Dynamic modeling and numerical simulation of hydrate slurry flow behavior are of great importance to offshore hydrate management.For this purpose, a dynamic model of hydrate agglomeration was proposed in this paper.Ba...Dynamic modeling and numerical simulation of hydrate slurry flow behavior are of great importance to offshore hydrate management.For this purpose, a dynamic model of hydrate agglomeration was proposed in this paper.Based on population balance equation, the frame of the dynamic model was established first, which took both hydrate agglomeration and hydrate breakage into consideration.Then, the calculating methods of four key parameters involved in the dynamic model were given according to hydrate agglomeration dynamics.The four key parameters are collision frequency, agglomeration efficiency, breakage frequency and the size distribution of sub particles resulting from particle breakage.After the whole dynamic model was built, it was combined with several traditional solid–liquid flow models and then together solved by the CFD software FLUENT 14.5.Finally, using this method, the influences of flow rate and hydrate volume fraction on hydrate particle size distribution, hydrate volume concentration distribution and pipeline pressure drop were simulated and analyzed.展开更多
OBJECTIVE To explain the high inter-individual variability and the frequency of exceeding the therapeutic reference range and the laboratory alert level of amisulpride,a popula⁃tion pharmacokinetic model in Chinese pa...OBJECTIVE To explain the high inter-individual variability and the frequency of exceeding the therapeutic reference range and the laboratory alert level of amisulpride,a popula⁃tion pharmacokinetic model in Chinese patients with schizophrenia was built based on therapeu⁃tic drug monitoring data to guide individualized therapy.METHODS Plasma concentration data(330 measurements from 121 patients)were ana⁃lyzed using a nonlinear mixed-effects model⁃ing approach with first-order conditional estima⁃tion with interaction(FOCE I).The concentra⁃tions of amisulpride were detected by HPLC-MS/MS.Age,weight,sex,combination medication history and renal function status were evaluated as main covariates.The model was internally val⁃idated using goodness-of-fit,bootstrap and nor⁃malized prediction distribution error.Recom⁃mended dosage regimens for patients with key covariates were estimated on the basis of Monte Carlo simulations and the established model.RESULTS A one-compartment model with first-order absorption and elimination was found to adequately characterize amisulpride concentra⁃tion in Chinese patients with schizophrenia.The population estimates of the apparent volume of distribution(V/F)and apparent clearance(CL/F)were 12.7 L and 1.12 L·h-1,respectively.Age sig⁃nificantly affected the clearance of amisulpride and the final model was as follow:CL/F=1.04×(AGE/32)-0.624(L·h-1).To avoid exceeding the lab⁃oratory alert level(640μg·L-1),the model-based simulation results showed that the recommended dose of amisulpride was no more than 600 mg per day for patients aged 60 years,800 mg per day for those aged 40 years and 1200 mg per day for those aged 20 years,respectively.CON⁃CLUSION Dosage optimization of amisulpride can be carried out according to age to reduce the risk of adverse reactions.The model can be used as a suitable tool for designing individual⁃ized therapy for Chinese patients with schizo⁃phrenia.展开更多
The experimental and numerical investigations of single drop in liquid/liquid extraction system have been reviewed with particular focus on experimental techniques and computational fluid dynamic simulation approaches...The experimental and numerical investigations of single drop in liquid/liquid extraction system have been reviewed with particular focus on experimental techniques and computational fluid dynamic simulation approaches.Comprehensive surveys of available experimental techniques and numerical approaches for single drop rising and falling were given.Subsequently,single drop mass transfer was also reviewed both experimentally and numerically.Additionally,single drop breakage and coalescence process and the influencing factors were summarized and compared,so as to establish sub-models for population balance model.Future directions on single drop mass transfer,drop breakage and coalescence were suggested.It is believed that the single drop is a powerful tool to assist extraction process design from lab-scale to pilot-scale.展开更多
The computational fluid dynamics （CFD）-population balance equations （PBE） coupled model is employed to investigate the hydrodynamics in a gas-slurry internal loop reactor with external slurry circulation. The pred...The computational fluid dynamics （CFD）-population balance equations （PBE） coupled model is employed to investigate the hydrodynamics in a gas-slurry internal loop reactor with external slurry circulation. The predicted radial profiles of local gas holdup and bubble diameter are in good agreement with the corresponding experimental data. The spatio-temporal velocity profile of the gas phase reveals that the upward movement of gas is slowed down and the residence time of gas is prolonged by the downward momentum of the slurry, introduction of the external slurry can greatly improve the uniformity of gas holdup distribution in the reactor, especially in the downcomer-tube action region. Moreover, the interaction between the downward slurry and upward gas can lead to small bubble size and high interfacial area as well as good mass and heat transfer. The above results suggest the function of external slurry circulation for the internal loop reactor and would be helpful for optimizing the design and scale up of reactors.展开更多
Rapid dewatering and thickening of whole-tailings with ultrafine particles is one of the most important processes for the whole-tailings paste preparation. Deep-cone thickener, a kind of such process for the flocculat...Rapid dewatering and thickening of whole-tailings with ultrafine particles is one of the most important processes for the whole-tailings paste preparation. Deep-cone thickener, a kind of such process for the flocculation and settling of whole-tailings, is particularly necessary to study. However, there exist many problems in observing the flocculation and settling process of whole-tailings, as well as the particle size distribution(PSD) of whole-tailings floccules in deep-cone thickener. Population balance model(PBM) is applied to predict the PSD in deep-cone thickener, and LUO model and GHADIRI model are employed to study the aggregation and fragmentation mechanism of the whole-tailings particles, respectively. Through three-dimensional numerical simulation on the whole-tailings flocculation and settling in deep-cone thickener using computational fluid dynamics(CFD)-PBM, the distribution of density and turbulent kinetic energy in deep-cone thickener were obtained, at the same time the spatio-temporal changes of whole-tailings floccules particle size distribution are analyzed. Finally, the major flocculation position in deep-cone thickener is found and the flocculation settling rules of whole-tailings are achieved.展开更多
The constant bubble size modeling approach(CBSM)and variable bubble size modeling approach(VBSM)are frequently employed in Eulerian–Eulerian simulation of bubble columns.However,the accuracy of CBSM is limited while ...The constant bubble size modeling approach(CBSM)and variable bubble size modeling approach(VBSM)are frequently employed in Eulerian–Eulerian simulation of bubble columns.However,the accuracy of CBSM is limited while the computational efficiency of VBSM needs to be improved.This work aims to develop method for bubble size modeling which has high computational efficiency and accuracy in the simulation of bubble columns.The distribution of bubble sizes is represented by a series of discrete points,and the percentage of bubbles with various sizes at gas inlet is determined by the results of computational fluid dynamics(CFD)–population balance model(PBM)simulations,whereas the influence of bubble coalescence and breakup is neglected.The simulated results of a 0.15 m diameter bubble column suggest that the developed method has high computational speed and can achieve similar accuracy as CFD–PBM modeling.Furthermore,the convergence issues caused by solving population balance equations are addressed.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant numbers 82204041)Gansu Provincial Science and Technology Program Funded Projects(Grant numbers 22JR11RA184).
文摘Iodine is an essential element for the synthesis of thyroid hormones.Iodine deficiency increases the burden on thyroid function and causes harm to health.The identification of convenient and reliable biomarkers for assessing iodine nutritional status is essential for evaluating iodine intake.Urinary iodine concentration(UIC)is commonly used for population level iodine status assessment but is less reliable for individuals.A 24-h urine sample is more accurate but difficult to collect[1].Thyroid volume(Tvol)and goiter rate are suitable for evaluating the long-term iodine nutritional status in populations[2].Blood indicator collection is an invasive procedure.
基金Under the auspices of Knowledge Innovation Programs of Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. KZCX2-YW-342, KZCX2-YW-321-04)National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 40635030)
文摘The spatial distribution of urban population can reflect significantly urban functions and development status. Shenyang, as a typical old industrial city in China, has experienced considerable changes in spatial distribution of population in the process of urban transformation, resulting in the change of urban spatial structure. Based on the sub-district data of Chinese national population censuses in 1982, 1990 and 2000, this study simulates the evolution pattern of spatial distribution of urban population in Shenyang City. Using statistical method and exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA), we found that the population distribution, on the whole, has presented a balanced and decentralized trend since the 1980s, which characterizes with Chinese suburbanization. Furthermore, based on the investigation of the pattern of population distribution, it is concluded that the negative exponential model fitted the distribution best, and population concentration in the inner suburb kept increasing gradually, meanwhile, the spatial structure of population distribution has presented a polycentric feature since the 1980s. The parameters of the model show that population in the urban core concentrate significantly all the time. The increase of population in the inner suburb influences the population distribution pattern more and more importantly, but the concentration intensity of population cores in inner suburb is still low.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(69673044).
文摘The article established the HDRICE model by modifying the structure of the ORYZA1 model and revising its parameters by field experiments. The HDRICE model consists of the modules of morphological development of rice, daily dry matter accumulation and partitioning, daily CO2 assimilation of the canopy, leaf area, and tiller development. The model preferably simulated the dynamic rice development because of the thorough integration of the effects of temperature and light on the rates of rice development, photosynthesis, respiration, and. other ecophysiological processes. In addition, this model has attainable grain yield in the test experiment that showed the potential yield of cultivar Xieyou 46 ranged from 11 to 13 tons ha-~. Besides, the model was used to optimize the combinations of the transplanting date, seedling age and density for cultivar Xieyou 46 at Jinhua area, and the population quantitative indices to attain the potential yield such as maximum stems, effective panicles, filled grain number/leaf area, and so on. The result showed that the combination of transplanting date on July 25, seedling age of 35 days and base seedling density of 1.33 x 106ha-1 is the optimum combination for the second hybrid rice production in Jinhua County, China. And the maximum stems, the effective panicles, the filled grain per panicle, the peak of optimum LAI, LAI in later filling stage, and the filled grain number/leaf were 6.03×10^6ha, 3.99×10^6ha, 119.2, 8.59, 5-6, and 0.64, respectively.
基金supported by Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research on Innovative Areas from the Ministry of Education,Culture,Sports, Science and Technology(MEXTGrant No.26106006)+1 种基金supported by a Grand-in-Aid for Young Scientists(KAKENHI B) from the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science(JSPSGrant No. 24740120)
文摘Population synthesis studies into planet formation have suggested that distributions consistent with observations can only be reproduced if the actual Type Ⅰ migration timescale is at least an order of magnitude longer than that deduced from linear theories.Although past studies considered the effect of the Type I migration of protoplanetary embryos,in most cases they used a conventional formula based on static torques in isothermal disks,and employed a reduction factor to account for uncertainty in the mechanism details.However,in addition to static torques,a migrating planet experiences dynamic torques that are proportional to the migration rate.These dynamic torques can impact on planet migration and predicted planetary populations.In this study,we derived a new torque formula for Type Ⅰ migration by taking into account dynamic corrections.This formula was used to perform population synthesis simulations with and without the effect of dynamic torques.In many cases,inward migration was slowed significantly by the dynamic effects.For the static torque case,gas giant formation was effectively suppressed by Type I migration;however,when dynamic effects were considered,a substantial fraction of cores survived and grew into gas giants.
文摘Computer simulation models are widely applied in various areas of the health care sector, including the spread of infectious diseases. Patch models involve explicit movements of people between distinct locations. The aim of the present work has been designed and explored a patch model with population mobility between different patches and between each patch and an external population. The authors considered a SIR （susceptible-infected-recovered） scheme. The model was explored by computer simulations. The results show how endemic levels are reached in all patches of the system. Furthermore, the performed explorations suggest that the people mobility between patches, the immigration from outside the system and the infection rate in each patch, are factors that may influence the dynamics of epidemics and should be considered in health policy planning.
文摘This paper outlines the fundamentals of a consistent theory of numerical modelling of a population system under study. The focus is on the systematic work to construct an executable simulation model. There are six fundamental choices of model category and model constituents to make. These choices have a profound impact on how the model is structured, what can be studied, possible introduction of bias, lucidity and comprehensibility, size, expandability, performance of the model, required information about the system studied and its range of validity. The first choice concerns a discrete versus a continuous description of the population system under study—a choice that leads to different model categories. The second choice is the model representation (based on agents, entities, compartments or situations) used to describe the properties and behaviours of the objects in the studied population. Third, incomplete information about structure, transitions, signals, initial conditions or parameter values in the system under study must be addressed by alternative structures and statistical means. Fourth, the purpose of the study must be explicitly formulated in terms of the quantities used in the model. Fifth, irrespective of the choice of representation, there are three possible types of time handling: Event Scheduling, Time Slicing or Micro Time Slicing. Sixth, start and termination criteria for the simulation must be stated. The termination can be at a fixed end time or determined by a logical condition. Population models can thereby be classified within a unified framework, and population models of one type can be translated into another type in a consistent way. Understanding the pros and cons for different choices of model category, representation, time handling etc. will help the modeller to select the most appropriate type of model for a given purpose and population system under study. By understanding the rules for consistent population modelling, an appropriate model can be created in a systematic way and a number of pitfalls can be avoided.
基金Supported by the Special Fund for Agro-scientific Research in the Public Interest of China(No.201203018)the National Key Technology Research and Development Program of China(No.2006BAD09A05)
文摘Trawl is a main fishing gear in Chinese fishery,capturing large fish and letting small ones at large.However,long-term use of trawl would result in changes of phenotypic traits of the fish stocks,such as smaller size-at-age and earlier age-at-maturation.In this study,we simulated a fish population with size characteristics of trawl fishing and the population produces one generation of offspring and lives for one year,used trawl to exploit the simulated fish population,and captured individuals by body size.We evaluated the impact of the changes on selectivity parameters,such as selective range and the length at 50% retention.Under fishing pressure,we specified the selectivity parameters,and determined that smaller selection rates and greater length at 50% retention were associated with an increased tendency towards miniaturization.
文摘This paper proposes a resampling simulator that will calculate probabilities of detecting invasive species infesting hosts that occur in large numbers. Different methods were examined to determine the bias of observed cumulative distribution functions (c.d.f.s), generated from prototype resampling simulators. One involved seeing if they matched theoretical c.d.f.s, which were generated using formulae for calculating the probability of the union of many events (union formulae), which are known to be correct. Others involved assessing the bias of observed c.d.f.s, generated from using prototype resampling simulators operating on much larger simulated populations, when computation of theoretical c.d.f.s from the union formulae was not practical. Examples are given for using the proposed resampling simulator for detecting an invasive insect pest within the context of an invasive species management system.
文摘In this paper, a three level characteristic difference scheme is proposed for the model of age structured population with history dependent mortality and natality. It is proved that the scheme is second order convergent in the discrete l ∞ norm.
文摘This paper tries to present another theoretical view in the study of population geography by applying the principle of artificial neural network.It is our view that the approach to population geography study is of two kinds so far: the synthetic analysis and An2 synthetic analysis.
文摘The purpose of this study is to analyze the population dynamics of loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) affected by localized oil spills. Methods include development of a spatial, stage-classified matrix model parameterized for the following primary loggerhead populations: Gulf of Mexico, western North Atlantic Ocean, and Florida peninsula. Oil spills are simulated deterministically in each population's nesting region, with 1) oil-induced mortality ranging from 25% to 100% and 2) stage classes affected either proportionally or equally. A transient sensitivity analysis was performed to determine the parameters most influential to the population growth rate. Results suggest that increased protection and understanding of young sea turtles found in the Sargasso Sea is essential to the survival of the species. In addition, findings provide insights into the population dynamics of the At- lantic loggerhead turtles and identify conservation measures appropriate in each oil spill case.
文摘An analytical solution is derived for the probability that a random pair of individuals from a panmictic population of size N will share ancestors who lived G generations previously. The analysis is extended to obtain 1) the probability that a sample of size s will contain at least one pair of (G - 1)<sup>th</sup> cousins;and 2) the expected number of pairs of (G - 1)<sup>th</sup> cousins in that sample. Solutions are given for both monogamous and promiscuous (non-monogamous) cases. Simulation results for a population size of N = 20,000 closely approximate the analytical expectations. Simulation results also agree very well with previously derived expectations for the proportion of unrelated individuals in a sample. The analysis is broadly consistent with genetic estimates of relatedness among a sample of 406 Danish school children, but suggests that a different genetic study of a heterogenous sample of Europeans overestimates the frequency of cousin pairs by as much as one order of magnitude.
文摘This study presents a mathematical modelling approach to analyze the impact of family planning interventions on population growth dynamics.Using a compartmental model,the population is divided into six groups:Susceptible,Informed,Sexually Active Non-Users,Contraceptive Users,Non-Users and General Population.The model incorporates differential equations to describe transitions among these compartments,influenced by factors such as sexual behavior,contraceptive adoption,and public health education.Analytical techniques,including equilibrium analysis and the computation of the basic reproductive number were used to evaluate the model’s behavior and stability.Numerical simulations conducted in MATLAB revealed that increased contraceptive usage and awareness significantly reduce the number of high-risk individuals while stabilizing overall population growth.The reproductive number was shown to decrease as contraceptive uptake increased,confirming the effectiveness of intervention strategies.The findings highlight the importance of reproductive health education and contraceptive access in managing population growth,providing valuable insights for policymakers and public health planners.This study demonstrates the potential of mathematical modelling as a predictive and policy-support tool in reproductive health and demographic planning.
文摘Objective To measure the impact of each type of exercise on sleep quality and identify the exercise that enhances sleep quality the most.Study selection Eligible randomised controlled trials that compare physical exercise to routine activities,usual care,non-physical activity,or health education to measure the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index.Data source Studies retrieved from Medline,Embase,CINAHL,Scopus,ClinicalTrial.gov and ThaiJo from the database’s inception to October 2022.Data extraction and synthesis Two reviewers independently identified studies,collected data and assessed bias.In the absence of heterogeneity,a fixed effect model was used for pairwise meta-analysis.Alternatively,a random effect model was used.A two-stage network meta-analysis used the surface under the cumulative ranking curve(SUCRA)to compare exercise efficacy.Main outcome Global Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index(GPSQI)and subdomain score.Results This review comprised 2170 people from 25 trials.Direct meta-analysis revealed significant improvement in GPSQI with combined exercise(unstandardised mean difference(USMD)−2.35,95%CI−3.13 to-1.57,p<0.001,I^(2)=69.13%).GPSQI decreased considerably with aerobic activity(USMD−4.36,95%CI−7.86 to-0.86,p=0.01,I^(2)=97.83%).For the network meta-analysis,strengthening,aerobic and combination exercise significantly lowered GPSQI(USMD−5.75,-3.76 and−2.54,respectively).Strength training improved GPSQI scores most effectively(SUCRA 94.6%).Conclusion Exercise that strengthens muscles,rather than aerobic or combination exercises,is the most effective way to enhance sleep quality.
基金Supported by Shandong Provincial Natural Science Foundation,China(ZR2017MEE057)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(14CX02207A,17CX05006,17CX06017)the Graduate Innovation Project of China University of Petroleum(East China)(YCX2017062)
文摘Dynamic modeling and numerical simulation of hydrate slurry flow behavior are of great importance to offshore hydrate management.For this purpose, a dynamic model of hydrate agglomeration was proposed in this paper.Based on population balance equation, the frame of the dynamic model was established first, which took both hydrate agglomeration and hydrate breakage into consideration.Then, the calculating methods of four key parameters involved in the dynamic model were given according to hydrate agglomeration dynamics.The four key parameters are collision frequency, agglomeration efficiency, breakage frequency and the size distribution of sub particles resulting from particle breakage.After the whole dynamic model was built, it was combined with several traditional solid–liquid flow models and then together solved by the CFD software FLUENT 14.5.Finally, using this method, the influences of flow rate and hydrate volume fraction on hydrate particle size distribution, hydrate volume concentration distribution and pipeline pressure drop were simulated and analyzed.
文摘OBJECTIVE To explain the high inter-individual variability and the frequency of exceeding the therapeutic reference range and the laboratory alert level of amisulpride,a popula⁃tion pharmacokinetic model in Chinese patients with schizophrenia was built based on therapeu⁃tic drug monitoring data to guide individualized therapy.METHODS Plasma concentration data(330 measurements from 121 patients)were ana⁃lyzed using a nonlinear mixed-effects model⁃ing approach with first-order conditional estima⁃tion with interaction(FOCE I).The concentra⁃tions of amisulpride were detected by HPLC-MS/MS.Age,weight,sex,combination medication history and renal function status were evaluated as main covariates.The model was internally val⁃idated using goodness-of-fit,bootstrap and nor⁃malized prediction distribution error.Recom⁃mended dosage regimens for patients with key covariates were estimated on the basis of Monte Carlo simulations and the established model.RESULTS A one-compartment model with first-order absorption and elimination was found to adequately characterize amisulpride concentra⁃tion in Chinese patients with schizophrenia.The population estimates of the apparent volume of distribution(V/F)and apparent clearance(CL/F)were 12.7 L and 1.12 L·h-1,respectively.Age sig⁃nificantly affected the clearance of amisulpride and the final model was as follow:CL/F=1.04×(AGE/32)-0.624(L·h-1).To avoid exceeding the lab⁃oratory alert level(640μg·L-1),the model-based simulation results showed that the recommended dose of amisulpride was no more than 600 mg per day for patients aged 60 years,800 mg per day for those aged 40 years and 1200 mg per day for those aged 20 years,respectively.CON⁃CLUSION Dosage optimization of amisulpride can be carried out according to age to reduce the risk of adverse reactions.The model can be used as a suitable tool for designing individual⁃ized therapy for Chinese patients with schizo⁃phrenia.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(21636004)the National Safety Academy Foundation(U1530107)the National Key Basic Research Program of China(2012CBA01203)in the State Key Laboratory of Chemical Engineering of Tsinghua University,Beijing,China.
文摘The experimental and numerical investigations of single drop in liquid/liquid extraction system have been reviewed with particular focus on experimental techniques and computational fluid dynamic simulation approaches.Comprehensive surveys of available experimental techniques and numerical approaches for single drop rising and falling were given.Subsequently,single drop mass transfer was also reviewed both experimentally and numerically.Additionally,single drop breakage and coalescence process and the influencing factors were summarized and compared,so as to establish sub-models for population balance model.Future directions on single drop mass transfer,drop breakage and coalescence were suggested.It is believed that the single drop is a powerful tool to assist extraction process design from lab-scale to pilot-scale.
基金Financial support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China(51076043 and 51061130538)Program for New Century Excellent Talents in University(NCET-09-0342)+1 种基金Central Universities(12QN02)111 Project(B12034)
文摘The computational fluid dynamics （CFD）-population balance equations （PBE） coupled model is employed to investigate the hydrodynamics in a gas-slurry internal loop reactor with external slurry circulation. The predicted radial profiles of local gas holdup and bubble diameter are in good agreement with the corresponding experimental data. The spatio-temporal velocity profile of the gas phase reveals that the upward movement of gas is slowed down and the residence time of gas is prolonged by the downward momentum of the slurry, introduction of the external slurry can greatly improve the uniformity of gas holdup distribution in the reactor, especially in the downcomer-tube action region. Moreover, the interaction between the downward slurry and upward gas can lead to small bubble size and high interfacial area as well as good mass and heat transfer. The above results suggest the function of external slurry circulation for the internal loop reactor and would be helpful for optimizing the design and scale up of reactors.
基金Project(51174032)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(NCET-10-0225)supported by the Program for New Century Excellent Talents in University,ChinaProject(FRF-TP-09-001A)supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities,China
文摘Rapid dewatering and thickening of whole-tailings with ultrafine particles is one of the most important processes for the whole-tailings paste preparation. Deep-cone thickener, a kind of such process for the flocculation and settling of whole-tailings, is particularly necessary to study. However, there exist many problems in observing the flocculation and settling process of whole-tailings, as well as the particle size distribution(PSD) of whole-tailings floccules in deep-cone thickener. Population balance model(PBM) is applied to predict the PSD in deep-cone thickener, and LUO model and GHADIRI model are employed to study the aggregation and fragmentation mechanism of the whole-tailings particles, respectively. Through three-dimensional numerical simulation on the whole-tailings flocculation and settling in deep-cone thickener using computational fluid dynamics(CFD)-PBM, the distribution of density and turbulent kinetic energy in deep-cone thickener were obtained, at the same time the spatio-temporal changes of whole-tailings floccules particle size distribution are analyzed. Finally, the major flocculation position in deep-cone thickener is found and the flocculation settling rules of whole-tailings are achieved.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(21625603)for supporting this work。
文摘The constant bubble size modeling approach(CBSM)and variable bubble size modeling approach(VBSM)are frequently employed in Eulerian–Eulerian simulation of bubble columns.However,the accuracy of CBSM is limited while the computational efficiency of VBSM needs to be improved.This work aims to develop method for bubble size modeling which has high computational efficiency and accuracy in the simulation of bubble columns.The distribution of bubble sizes is represented by a series of discrete points,and the percentage of bubbles with various sizes at gas inlet is determined by the results of computational fluid dynamics(CFD)–population balance model(PBM)simulations,whereas the influence of bubble coalescence and breakup is neglected.The simulated results of a 0.15 m diameter bubble column suggest that the developed method has high computational speed and can achieve similar accuracy as CFD–PBM modeling.Furthermore,the convergence issues caused by solving population balance equations are addressed.
