This paper addresses the problem of predicting population density leveraging cellular station data.As wireless communication devices are commonly used,cellular station data has become integral for estimating populatio...This paper addresses the problem of predicting population density leveraging cellular station data.As wireless communication devices are commonly used,cellular station data has become integral for estimating population figures and studying their movement,thereby implying significant contributions to urban planning.However,existing research grapples with issues pertinent to preprocessing base station data and the modeling of population prediction.To address this,we propose methodologies for preprocessing cellular station data to eliminate any irregular or redundant data.The preprocessing reveals a distinct cyclical characteristic and high-frequency variation in population shift.Further,we devise a multi-view enhancement model grounded on the Transformer(MVformer),targeting the improvement of the accuracy of extended time-series population predictions.Comparative experiments,conducted on the above-mentioned population dataset using four alternate Transformer-based models,indicate that our proposedMVformer model enhances prediction accuracy by approximately 30%for both univariate and multivariate time-series prediction assignments.The performance of this model in tasks pertaining to population prediction exhibits commendable results.展开更多
This study examines a new methodology to predict the final seismic mortality from earthquakes in China. Most studies established the association between mortality estimation and seismic intensity without considering t...This study examines a new methodology to predict the final seismic mortality from earthquakes in China. Most studies established the association between mortality estimation and seismic intensity without considering the population density. In China, however, the data are not always available, especially when it comes to the very urgent relief situation in the disaster. And the popu- lation density varies greatly from region to region. This motivates the development of empirical models that use historical death data to provide the path to analyze the death tolls for earthquakes. The present paper employs the average population density to predict the final death tolls in earthquakes using a case-based reasoning model from realistic perspective. To validate the forecasting results, historical data from 18 large-scale earthquakes occurred in China are used to estimate the seismic morality of each case. And a typical earthquake case occurred in the northwest of Sichuan Province is employed to demonstrate the estimation of final death toll. The strength of this paper is that it provides scientific methods with overall forecast errors lower than 20 %, and opens the door for conducting final death forecasts with a qualitative and quantitative approach. Limitations and future research are also analyzed and discussed in the conclusion.展开更多
基金Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation under Grant No.2024A1515012485in part by the Shenzhen Fundamental Research Program under Grant JCYJ20220810112354002.
文摘This paper addresses the problem of predicting population density leveraging cellular station data.As wireless communication devices are commonly used,cellular station data has become integral for estimating population figures and studying their movement,thereby implying significant contributions to urban planning.However,existing research grapples with issues pertinent to preprocessing base station data and the modeling of population prediction.To address this,we propose methodologies for preprocessing cellular station data to eliminate any irregular or redundant data.The preprocessing reveals a distinct cyclical characteristic and high-frequency variation in population shift.Further,we devise a multi-view enhancement model grounded on the Transformer(MVformer),targeting the improvement of the accuracy of extended time-series population predictions.Comparative experiments,conducted on the above-mentioned population dataset using four alternate Transformer-based models,indicate that our proposedMVformer model enhances prediction accuracy by approximately 30%for both univariate and multivariate time-series prediction assignments.The performance of this model in tasks pertaining to population prediction exhibits commendable results.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos.71271069,71540015,71532004)Foundation of Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture (No.ZF15069)
文摘This study examines a new methodology to predict the final seismic mortality from earthquakes in China. Most studies established the association between mortality estimation and seismic intensity without considering the population density. In China, however, the data are not always available, especially when it comes to the very urgent relief situation in the disaster. And the popu- lation density varies greatly from region to region. This motivates the development of empirical models that use historical death data to provide the path to analyze the death tolls for earthquakes. The present paper employs the average population density to predict the final death tolls in earthquakes using a case-based reasoning model from realistic perspective. To validate the forecasting results, historical data from 18 large-scale earthquakes occurred in China are used to estimate the seismic morality of each case. And a typical earthquake case occurred in the northwest of Sichuan Province is employed to demonstrate the estimation of final death toll. The strength of this paper is that it provides scientific methods with overall forecast errors lower than 20 %, and opens the door for conducting final death forecasts with a qualitative and quantitative approach. Limitations and future research are also analyzed and discussed in the conclusion.
