Forest management planning faces uncertainties regarding future timber prices,tree growth,and survival.Future seed production is an additional source of uncertainty in Korean pine stands managed for the joint producti...Forest management planning faces uncertainties regarding future timber prices,tree growth,and survival.Future seed production is an additional source of uncertainty in Korean pine stands managed for the joint production of timber and edible seeds.Modern forest planning uses optimisation to determine the best possible cutting schedule.Optimisation can accommodate uncertainty by using decision rules for adaptive forest management instead of optimising cutting years and intensities.In this study,we optimised two adaptive decision rules for managing Korean pine plantations for the joint production of timber and pinecones when timber prices,tree growth,and seed production are stochastic.The first rule indicated the minimum price to sell timber,i.e.,the reservation price,as a function of the mean tree diameter and stand basal area.The second adaptive rule expressed the mean tree diameter at which cutting is optimal as a function of timber price and stand basal area.Both decision rules resulted in nearly the same mean net present value when the optimised rule was applied to 100 stochastic scenarios for future timber prices,tree growth,and seed production.The net present values were over 20% higher than those for the deterministically optimised cutting schedules under the same scenarios.Therefore,the expected economic gain from switching from deterministic to adaptive stochastic optimisation was at least 20%.The cutting years of the adaptive optima were frequently later than those indicated by the deterministic optima,and optimal adaptive harvesting often involved waiting for high timber prices.The minimum price or minimum mean diameter to sell timber was higher when the income from seeds was considered in the optimisation.The cuttings were later,and the rotations were longer in the joint production of timber and pinecones than in timber production alone.展开更多
Korean pine is one of the most important plantation species in northeast China. Besides timber, it produces edible nuts and plantations sequester carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. This study optimized the management...Korean pine is one of the most important plantation species in northeast China. Besides timber, it produces edible nuts and plantations sequester carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. This study optimized the management of Korean pine plantations for timber production, seed production, carbon sequestration and for the joint production of multiple benefits. As the first step, models were developed for stand dynamics and seed production. These models were used in a simulation-optimization system to find optimal timing and type of thinning treatments and optimal rotation lengths. It was found that three thinnings during the rotation period were optimal. When the amount or profitability of timber production is maximized, suitable rotation lengths are 65-70 years and wood production is 5.5-6.0 m(3) ha(-1) a(-1). The optimal thinning regime is thinning from above. In seed production, optimal rotation lengths are over 100 years. When carbon sequestration in living biomass is maximized, stands should not be clear-cut until trees start to die due to senescence. In the joint production of multiple benefits, the optimal rotation length is 86 years if all benefits (wood, economic profits, seed, carbon sequestration) are equally important. In this management schedule, mean annual wood production is 5.5 m(2) ha(-1) and mean annual seed yield 141 kg ha(-1). It was concluded that it is better to produce timber and seeds in the same stands rather than assign stands to either timber production or seed production.展开更多
基金funded by the Joint Funds for Regional Innovation and Development of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No. U21A20244)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No. 32071758)the National Key R&D Program of China (No.2022YFD2201000)
文摘Forest management planning faces uncertainties regarding future timber prices,tree growth,and survival.Future seed production is an additional source of uncertainty in Korean pine stands managed for the joint production of timber and edible seeds.Modern forest planning uses optimisation to determine the best possible cutting schedule.Optimisation can accommodate uncertainty by using decision rules for adaptive forest management instead of optimising cutting years and intensities.In this study,we optimised two adaptive decision rules for managing Korean pine plantations for the joint production of timber and pinecones when timber prices,tree growth,and seed production are stochastic.The first rule indicated the minimum price to sell timber,i.e.,the reservation price,as a function of the mean tree diameter and stand basal area.The second adaptive rule expressed the mean tree diameter at which cutting is optimal as a function of timber price and stand basal area.Both decision rules resulted in nearly the same mean net present value when the optimised rule was applied to 100 stochastic scenarios for future timber prices,tree growth,and seed production.The net present values were over 20% higher than those for the deterministically optimised cutting schedules under the same scenarios.Therefore,the expected economic gain from switching from deterministic to adaptive stochastic optimisation was at least 20%.The cutting years of the adaptive optima were frequently later than those indicated by the deterministic optima,and optimal adaptive harvesting often involved waiting for high timber prices.The minimum price or minimum mean diameter to sell timber was higher when the income from seeds was considered in the optimisation.The cuttings were later,and the rotations were longer in the joint production of timber and pinecones than in timber production alone.
基金financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(31600511)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of the People’s Republic of China(2572017CA04)
文摘Korean pine is one of the most important plantation species in northeast China. Besides timber, it produces edible nuts and plantations sequester carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. This study optimized the management of Korean pine plantations for timber production, seed production, carbon sequestration and for the joint production of multiple benefits. As the first step, models were developed for stand dynamics and seed production. These models were used in a simulation-optimization system to find optimal timing and type of thinning treatments and optimal rotation lengths. It was found that three thinnings during the rotation period were optimal. When the amount or profitability of timber production is maximized, suitable rotation lengths are 65-70 years and wood production is 5.5-6.0 m(3) ha(-1) a(-1). The optimal thinning regime is thinning from above. In seed production, optimal rotation lengths are over 100 years. When carbon sequestration in living biomass is maximized, stands should not be clear-cut until trees start to die due to senescence. In the joint production of multiple benefits, the optimal rotation length is 86 years if all benefits (wood, economic profits, seed, carbon sequestration) are equally important. In this management schedule, mean annual wood production is 5.5 m(2) ha(-1) and mean annual seed yield 141 kg ha(-1). It was concluded that it is better to produce timber and seeds in the same stands rather than assign stands to either timber production or seed production.
