A new travel time reliability-based traffic assignment model is proposed to investigate the effects of an advanced transportation information system (ATIS) on drivers' risk-taking path choice behaviours in transpo...A new travel time reliability-based traffic assignment model is proposed to investigate the effects of an advanced transportation information system (ATIS) on drivers' risk-taking path choice behaviours in transportation networks with demand uncertainty. In the model, drivers are divided into two classes. The first class is not equipped with ATIS, while the second class is equipped with ATIS. Different risk-taking path choice behaviours of the two classes are studied, respectively. A corresponding mixed equilibrium traffic assignment model is formulated as a variational inequality problem in terms of path flows, which is solved by a heuristic solution algorithm. Numerical results indicate that the ATIS can influence the drivers' risk-taking path choice behaviours and the total system travel time in transportation networks with demand uncertainty. It is also found that under higher demand levels, the benefits of ATIS for network performance enhancement may be more obvious.展开更多
Due to the rigorous fiscal terms and huge potential risk of risk service contracts,optimizing oil production paths is one of the main challenges in designing oilfield development plans.In this paper,an oil production ...Due to the rigorous fiscal terms and huge potential risk of risk service contracts,optimizing oil production paths is one of the main challenges in designing oilfield development plans.In this paper,an oil production path optimization model is developed to maximize economic benefits within constraints of technology factors and oil contracts.This analysis describes the effects of risk service contract terms on parameters of inputs and outputs and quantifies the relationships between production and production time,revenues,investment and costs.An oil service development and production project is illustrated in which the optimal production path under its own geological conditions and contract terms is calculated.The influences of oil price,service fees per barrel and operating costs on the optimal production have been examined by sensitivity analysis.The results show that the oil price has the largest impact on the optimal production,which is negatively related to oil price and positively related to service fees per barrel and operating costs.展开更多
During the construction of earth-rock dam,mutual exclusive construction goals such as quality,safety,progress and cost all have influences on each other,with risk factors being everchanging as the construction progres...During the construction of earth-rock dam,mutual exclusive construction goals such as quality,safety,progress and cost all have influences on each other,with risk factors being everchanging as the construction progresses.Accurate identification of the risk factors,as well as clearing any possible effect that any risk factors might have on the construction project is the key and foundation to our cooperative control of the construction goals.According to the construction planning of earth-rock dam,the hall3 D structure was used to identify the potential changes of risk factors,and the possible means of any risk factors to interfere with the construction goals.The dynamic risk assessment index system is established by deploying the WBS-RBS(work breakdown structurerisk breakdown structure)method,aiming at the construction goals of earth-rock dam.The case study shows that the index system is very effective at risk management of earth-rock dam during construction,and relatively practicable.展开更多
Liquor-making industry has stepped into the depths strategic transformation and faced more complex and versatile macro situation in recent years, which means that economy integration was accelerated, the spread of inf...Liquor-making industry has stepped into the depths strategic transformation and faced more complex and versatile macro situation in recent years, which means that economy integration was accelerated, the spread of information technology sped up, consumer demand for products became complex and sophisticated, and product life cycle was shortened. The theory of "Internet +" highlights new turn in the strategic transformation of liquor-making industry. This paper, under the background of "Internet +", analyzes the existing situations of liquor-making industry, provides transition routes of strategic transformation in liquor-making industry, and gives prevention against transformation risks.展开更多
With the rapid development of the wind generation,uncertainties of random wind and load bring some inevitable impacts on the security of power system. Once the uncertainty causes line power to exceed its limit, line o...With the rapid development of the wind generation,uncertainties of random wind and load bring some inevitable impacts on the security of power system. Once the uncertainty causes line power to exceed its limit, line overload will occur. The paper presents the risk control of transmission line overload for windintegrated power systems. Firstly, a risk control model of line overload is proposed considering the uncertainties of loads,generator outputs and wind powers. The generation cost and security level of system associated with overload can be optimally controlled. Then path following interior point method is employed to carry out the optimal control. Finally the simulation is made on the modified IEEE-30 bus system. Results show that the risk of line overload is effectively reduced through the optimization of control variables.展开更多
In conventional shared risk link group （SRLG）-diverse path selection （CSPS） algorithm in survivable GMPLS networks, SRLG is taken into account when selecting the backup paths, while the primary path selection meth...In conventional shared risk link group （SRLG）-diverse path selection （CSPS） algorithm in survivable GMPLS networks, SRLG is taken into account when selecting the backup paths, while the primary path selection method is the sarne as the algorithms without SRLG constraint. A problem of CSPS algorithm is that, after a primary path is selected, the success probability to select an SRLG-diverse backup path for it is low. If SRLG is taken into account when computing the primary path, then the probability to successfully select an SRLG-diverse backup path will be much increased. Based on this idea, an active SRLG-diverse path selection （ASPS） algorithm is proposed. To actively avoid selecting those SRLG links, when computing the primary path, a link that share risk with more links is assigned a larger link cost. To improve the resource utilization ratio, it is permitted that the bandwidth resources are shared among backup paths. What is more, differentiated reliability （DiR） requirements of different customers are considered in ASPS algorithm. The simulation results show that, compared with CSPS algorithm, ASPS algorithm not only increases successful protection probability but also improves resource utilization ratio.展开更多
Based on risk social cognition theory and planned behavior theory, the influence factors of the public participation in the nanotechnology risk communication are analyzed,and the concept model is presented to analyze ...Based on risk social cognition theory and planned behavior theory, the influence factors of the public participation in the nanotechnology risk communication are analyzed,and the concept model is presented to analyze their relationships and functional mechanism. In the model,the risk communication behaviors are divided into two variables of the public opinion expression and information acquisition,and the subjective norm divided into the internal and external social networks. Then the questionnaire is designed so as to verify the proposed model and analyze their relationships. The survey data are analyzed using SMART PLS software. The validity analysis shows that the questionnaire has a high convergence and discriminant validity. In addition, the Cronbach'a coefficient of each item is more than 0. 70,which shows the questionnaire has a high credibility. Based on the statistical data analysis, relationships of the influence factors are obtained.Further,the influence path model of the public attitude,intention,self regulation and behavior control in the risk communication is established. According to the Bootstrap algorithm in SMART,the path coefficient and its explanation variance of each influence factor are obtained. The calculation results show that the explanation variance values are all bigger than 10% and the path is reliable.Based on the path model, the influence path and function relationships of the participation attitude, subjective norm and behavior control on the participation intention and behavior are obtained. This will provide theoretical and data supports for the risk management and strategy making of the public participation in nanotechnology risk communication.展开更多
基金The National High Technology Research and Development Program of China (863 Program) (No.2006AA11Z209)Youth Science and Technology Foundation of China University of Mining and Technology (No.2007A028)Natural Science Foundation of Beijing (No.9073018)
文摘A new travel time reliability-based traffic assignment model is proposed to investigate the effects of an advanced transportation information system (ATIS) on drivers' risk-taking path choice behaviours in transportation networks with demand uncertainty. In the model, drivers are divided into two classes. The first class is not equipped with ATIS, while the second class is equipped with ATIS. Different risk-taking path choice behaviours of the two classes are studied, respectively. A corresponding mixed equilibrium traffic assignment model is formulated as a variational inequality problem in terms of path flows, which is solved by a heuristic solution algorithm. Numerical results indicate that the ATIS can influence the drivers' risk-taking path choice behaviours and the total system travel time in transportation networks with demand uncertainty. It is also found that under higher demand levels, the benefits of ATIS for network performance enhancement may be more obvious.
基金Funding for this work was provided by the Major Project from the National Social Science Foundation of China through research on replacement strategies for overseas oil and gas resources based on the perspective of China’s petroleum security under the project number 11&ZD164
文摘Due to the rigorous fiscal terms and huge potential risk of risk service contracts,optimizing oil production paths is one of the main challenges in designing oilfield development plans.In this paper,an oil production path optimization model is developed to maximize economic benefits within constraints of technology factors and oil contracts.This analysis describes the effects of risk service contract terms on parameters of inputs and outputs and quantifies the relationships between production and production time,revenues,investment and costs.An oil service development and production project is illustrated in which the optimal production path under its own geological conditions and contract terms is calculated.The influences of oil price,service fees per barrel and operating costs on the optimal production have been examined by sensitivity analysis.The results show that the oil price has the largest impact on the optimal production,which is negatively related to oil price and positively related to service fees per barrel and operating costs.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51379192)
文摘During the construction of earth-rock dam,mutual exclusive construction goals such as quality,safety,progress and cost all have influences on each other,with risk factors being everchanging as the construction progresses.Accurate identification of the risk factors,as well as clearing any possible effect that any risk factors might have on the construction project is the key and foundation to our cooperative control of the construction goals.According to the construction planning of earth-rock dam,the hall3 D structure was used to identify the potential changes of risk factors,and the possible means of any risk factors to interfere with the construction goals.The dynamic risk assessment index system is established by deploying the WBS-RBS(work breakdown structurerisk breakdown structure)method,aiming at the construction goals of earth-rock dam.The case study shows that the index system is very effective at risk management of earth-rock dam during construction,and relatively practicable.
文摘Liquor-making industry has stepped into the depths strategic transformation and faced more complex and versatile macro situation in recent years, which means that economy integration was accelerated, the spread of information technology sped up, consumer demand for products became complex and sophisticated, and product life cycle was shortened. The theory of "Internet +" highlights new turn in the strategic transformation of liquor-making industry. This paper, under the background of "Internet +", analyzes the existing situations of liquor-making industry, provides transition routes of strategic transformation in liquor-making industry, and gives prevention against transformation risks.
基金National Natural Science Foundations of China(Nos.51007052,71201097)Natural Science Foundation of Shanghai,China(No.14ZR1415300)
文摘With the rapid development of the wind generation,uncertainties of random wind and load bring some inevitable impacts on the security of power system. Once the uncertainty causes line power to exceed its limit, line overload will occur. The paper presents the risk control of transmission line overload for windintegrated power systems. Firstly, a risk control model of line overload is proposed considering the uncertainties of loads,generator outputs and wind powers. The generation cost and security level of system associated with overload can be optimally controlled. Then path following interior point method is employed to carry out the optimal control. Finally the simulation is made on the modified IEEE-30 bus system. Results show that the risk of line overload is effectively reduced through the optimization of control variables.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (60673142)Applied Basic ResearchProject of Sichuan Province (2006J13-067).
文摘In conventional shared risk link group （SRLG）-diverse path selection （CSPS） algorithm in survivable GMPLS networks, SRLG is taken into account when selecting the backup paths, while the primary path selection method is the sarne as the algorithms without SRLG constraint. A problem of CSPS algorithm is that, after a primary path is selected, the success probability to select an SRLG-diverse backup path for it is low. If SRLG is taken into account when computing the primary path, then the probability to successfully select an SRLG-diverse backup path will be much increased. Based on this idea, an active SRLG-diverse path selection （ASPS） algorithm is proposed. To actively avoid selecting those SRLG links, when computing the primary path, a link that share risk with more links is assigned a larger link cost. To improve the resource utilization ratio, it is permitted that the bandwidth resources are shared among backup paths. What is more, differentiated reliability （DiR） requirements of different customers are considered in ASPS algorithm. The simulation results show that, compared with CSPS algorithm, ASPS algorithm not only increases successful protection probability but also improves resource utilization ratio.
基金National Social Science Foundation of China(No.14BTQ030)
文摘Based on risk social cognition theory and planned behavior theory, the influence factors of the public participation in the nanotechnology risk communication are analyzed,and the concept model is presented to analyze their relationships and functional mechanism. In the model,the risk communication behaviors are divided into two variables of the public opinion expression and information acquisition,and the subjective norm divided into the internal and external social networks. Then the questionnaire is designed so as to verify the proposed model and analyze their relationships. The survey data are analyzed using SMART PLS software. The validity analysis shows that the questionnaire has a high convergence and discriminant validity. In addition, the Cronbach'a coefficient of each item is more than 0. 70,which shows the questionnaire has a high credibility. Based on the statistical data analysis, relationships of the influence factors are obtained.Further,the influence path model of the public attitude,intention,self regulation and behavior control in the risk communication is established. According to the Bootstrap algorithm in SMART,the path coefficient and its explanation variance of each influence factor are obtained. The calculation results show that the explanation variance values are all bigger than 10% and the path is reliable.Based on the path model, the influence path and function relationships of the participation attitude, subjective norm and behavior control on the participation intention and behavior are obtained. This will provide theoretical and data supports for the risk management and strategy making of the public participation in nanotechnology risk communication.
