In order to evaluate all attack paths in a threat tree,based on threat modeling theory,a weight distribution algorithm of the root node in a threat tree is designed,which computes threat coefficients of leaf nodes in ...In order to evaluate all attack paths in a threat tree,based on threat modeling theory,a weight distribution algorithm of the root node in a threat tree is designed,which computes threat coefficients of leaf nodes in two ways including threat occurring possibility and the degree of damage.Besides,an algorithm of searching attack path was also obtained in accordence with its definition.Finally,an attack path evaluation system was implemented which can output the threat coefficients of the leaf nodes in a target threat tree,the weight distribution information,and the attack paths.An example threat tree is given to verify the effectiveness of the algorithms.展开更多
Ant colony optimization （ACO） is a new heuristic algo- rithm which has been proven a successful technique and applied to a number of combinatorial optimization problems. The traveling salesman problem （TSP） is amo...Ant colony optimization （ACO） is a new heuristic algo- rithm which has been proven a successful technique and applied to a number of combinatorial optimization problems. The traveling salesman problem （TSP） is among the most important combinato- rial problems. An ACO algorithm based on scout characteristic is proposed for solving the stagnation behavior and premature con- vergence problem of the basic ACO algorithm on TSP. The main idea is to partition artificial ants into two groups： scout ants and common ants. The common ants work according to the search manner of basic ant colony algorithm, but scout ants have some differences from common ants, they calculate each route＇s muta- tion probability of the current optimal solution using path evaluation model and search around the optimal solution according to the mutation probability. Simulation on TSP shows that the improved algorithm has high efficiency and robustness.展开更多
To effectively facilitate the low-carbon transition of energy and power systems,it is imperative to not only design transition paths at the macro level,but also conduct system feasibility analysis at the operation lev...To effectively facilitate the low-carbon transition of energy and power systems,it is imperative to not only design transition paths at the macro level,but also conduct system feasibility analysis at the operation level.This study proposes a comprehensive analytical methodology for evaluating the lowcarbon transition pathways of the power system.Based on the model built and paths designed in Part I of the paper,Part II extends the analysis by conducting a production simulation of the power system under various predefined scenarios,thereby validating the electric power and energy balance.The flexibility and resilience of the power system operation are evaluated under both normal and extreme weather conditions.Furthermore,the economic viability of different transition paths is compared,and the impacts of multiple factors on the annualized cost of each path are examined through sensitivity analysis.Together with Part I,this paper achieves the soft-linking of bottom-up power system operation simulation and economic analysis to topdown development scenario design,providing support for the rationality and feasibility verification of macro transition paths of China’s power system towards carbon neutrality by 2060.展开更多
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.90718023)National High-Tech Research and Development Program of China (No.2007AA01Z130)
文摘In order to evaluate all attack paths in a threat tree,based on threat modeling theory,a weight distribution algorithm of the root node in a threat tree is designed,which computes threat coefficients of leaf nodes in two ways including threat occurring possibility and the degree of damage.Besides,an algorithm of searching attack path was also obtained in accordence with its definition.Finally,an attack path evaluation system was implemented which can output the threat coefficients of the leaf nodes in a target threat tree,the weight distribution information,and the attack paths.An example threat tree is given to verify the effectiveness of the algorithms.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(60573159)
文摘Ant colony optimization （ACO） is a new heuristic algo- rithm which has been proven a successful technique and applied to a number of combinatorial optimization problems. The traveling salesman problem （TSP） is among the most important combinato- rial problems. An ACO algorithm based on scout characteristic is proposed for solving the stagnation behavior and premature con- vergence problem of the basic ACO algorithm on TSP. The main idea is to partition artificial ants into two groups： scout ants and common ants. The common ants work according to the search manner of basic ant colony algorithm, but scout ants have some differences from common ants, they calculate each route＇s muta- tion probability of the current optimal solution using path evaluation model and search around the optimal solution according to the mutation probability. Simulation on TSP shows that the improved algorithm has high efficiency and robustness.
基金supported by the Science and Technology Project of State Grid Corporation of China:Research on China’s end-use energy consumption demand and grid development scenarios under the dual carbon goals(1400-202455413A-3-5-YS).
文摘To effectively facilitate the low-carbon transition of energy and power systems,it is imperative to not only design transition paths at the macro level,but also conduct system feasibility analysis at the operation level.This study proposes a comprehensive analytical methodology for evaluating the lowcarbon transition pathways of the power system.Based on the model built and paths designed in Part I of the paper,Part II extends the analysis by conducting a production simulation of the power system under various predefined scenarios,thereby validating the electric power and energy balance.The flexibility and resilience of the power system operation are evaluated under both normal and extreme weather conditions.Furthermore,the economic viability of different transition paths is compared,and the impacts of multiple factors on the annualized cost of each path are examined through sensitivity analysis.Together with Part I,this paper achieves the soft-linking of bottom-up power system operation simulation and economic analysis to topdown development scenario design,providing support for the rationality and feasibility verification of macro transition paths of China’s power system towards carbon neutrality by 2060.
