Land use/cover change(LUCC)constitutes the spatial and temporal patterns of ecological security,and the construction of ecological networks is an effective way to ensure ecological security.Exploring the spatial and t...Land use/cover change(LUCC)constitutes the spatial and temporal patterns of ecological security,and the construction of ecological networks is an effective way to ensure ecological security.Exploring the spatial and temporal change characteristics of ecological network and analyzing the integrated relationship between LUCC and ecological security are crucial for ensuring regional ecological security.Gansu is one of the provinces with fragile ecological environment in China,and rapid changes in land use patterns in recent decades have threatened ecological security.Therefore,taking Gansu Province as the study area,this study simulated its land use pattern in 2050 using patch-generating land use simulation(PLUS)model based on the LUCC trend from 2000 to 2020 and integrated the LUCC into morphological spatial pattern analysis(MSPA)to identify ecological sources and extract the ecological corridors to construct ecological network using circuit theory.The results revealed that,according to the prediction results in 2050,the areas of cultivated land,forest land,grassland,water body,construction land,and unused land would be 63,447.52,39,510.80,148,115.18,4605.21,8368.89,and 161,752.40 km^(2),respectively.The number of ecological sources in Gansu Province would increase to 80,with a total area of 99,927.18 km^(2).The number of ecological corridors would increase to 191,with an estimated total length of 6120.66 km.Both ecological sources and ecological corridors showed a sparse distribution in the northwest and dense distribution in the southeast of the province at the spatial scale.The number of ecological pinch points would reach 312 and the total area would expect to increase to 842.84 km^(2),with the most pronounced increase in the Longdong region.Compared with 2020,the number and area of ecological barriers in 2050 would decrease significantly by 63 and 370.71 km^(2),respectively.In general,based on the prediction results,the connectivity of ecological network of Gansu Province would increase in 2050.To achieve the predicted ecological network in 2050,emphasis should be placed on the protection of cultivated land and ecological land,the establishment of ecological sources in desert areas,the reinforcement of the protection for existing ecological sources,and the construction of ecological corridors to enhance the stability of ecological network.This study provides valuable theoretical support and references for the future construction of ecological networks and regional land resource management decision-making.展开更多
Rapid urbanization and land-use changes are placing immense pressure on resources,infrastructure,and envi-ronmental sustainability.To address these,accurate urban simulation models are essential for sustainable develo...Rapid urbanization and land-use changes are placing immense pressure on resources,infrastructure,and envi-ronmental sustainability.To address these,accurate urban simulation models are essential for sustainable development and governance.Among them,Cellular Automata(CA)models have become key tools for pre-dicting urban expansion,optimizing land-use planning,and supporting data-driven decision-making.This review provides a comprehensive examination of the development of urban cellular automata(UCA)models,presenting a new framework to enhance individual UCA sub-modules within the context of emerging technologies,sus-tainable environments,and public governance.By addressing gaps in prior UCA modelling reviews-particularly in the integration and optimization of UCA sub-module technologies-this framework is designed to simplify UCA model understanding and development.We systematically review pioneering case studies,deconstruct current UCA operational processes,and explore modern technologies,such as big data and artificial intelligence,to optimize these sub-modules further.We discuss current limitations within UCA models and propose future pathways,emphasizing the necessity of comprehensive analyses for effective UCA simulations.Proposed solu-tions include strengthening our understanding of urban growth mechanisms,examining spatial positioning and temporal evolution dynamics,and enhancing urban geographic simulations with deep learning techniques to support sustainable transitions in public governance.These improvements offer data-driven decision support for environmental management,advancing policies that foster sustainable urban development.展开更多
In order to simulate the evolution of affordable housing land use a dynamic model that combines cellular automata CA and a multi-agent system MAS is established.This paper aims to utilize the approach of decision fact...In order to simulate the evolution of affordable housing land use a dynamic model that combines cellular automata CA and a multi-agent system MAS is established.This paper aims to utilize the approach of decision factors on site selection of affordable housing through a literature review to construct a hierarchy model of those factors identifying the weight of each factor by an analytic hierarchy process AHP .Based on those weight factors the CA-MAS model is designed. Nanjing city is taken as an example to verify the feasibility of the model.The results show that the CA-MAS model is pragmatic and effective in simulating evolution of affordable housing land use which also promotes the fundamental understanding and perception of the development of affordable housing and urbanization.展开更多
In recent years,rapid urbanization has had a profound impact on landscape stability.As a typical example of China's rapid urbanization,Hangzhou has also experienced significant landscape changes,which have profoun...In recent years,rapid urbanization has had a profound impact on landscape stability.As a typical example of China's rapid urbanization,Hangzhou has also experienced significant landscape changes,which have profoundly affected its ecological stability.Taking Hangzhou as an example,this study integrates land use change data from 1980 to 2020,combines dynamic simulation and ecological modeling techniques,and carries out a comprehensive analysis of historical trends and future predictions,to provide valuable insights into the complex interactions between urban expansion and landscape stability.The results indicate that:1)between 1980 and2020,Hangzhou experienced a significant increase in construction land at the expense of arable land,leading to a gradual decline in landscape stability,though the downward trend has slowed in recent years.2)The spatial distribution of landscape stability shows clear aggregation patterns,with lower stability concentrated in economically active flatlands and higher stability in the mountainous western regions.3)By 2040,further urban expansion is predicted to occur alongside increased landscape integration,reflecting the positive effects of ecological protection strategies.This study highlights the universal challenges of balancing economic growth with ecological stability in rapidly urbanizing regions.The combination of advanced simulation models and spatiotemporal analysis demonstrates a replicable framework for assessing urban expansion's ecological impacts.These findings underscore the importance of tailoring urban planning and ecological policies to address regional disparities,providing valuable insights for sustainable urban development and landscape management globally.展开更多
This study investigated and simulated land use patterns in Beijing for the year 2000 and the year 2005 from the actual land use data for the year 1995 and the year 2000,respectively,by combining spatial land allocatio...This study investigated and simulated land use patterns in Beijing for the year 2000 and the year 2005 from the actual land use data for the year 1995 and the year 2000,respectively,by combining spatial land allocation simulation using the CLUE-S model,and numerical land demand prediction using the Markov model.The simulations for 2000 and 2005 were confirmed to be generally accurate using Kappa indices.Then the land-use scenarios for Beijing in 2015 were simulated assuming two modes of development:1) urban development following existing trends;and 2) under a strict farmland control.The simulations suggested that under either mode,urbanized areas would expand at the expense of land for other uses.This expansion was predicted to dominate the land-use conversions between 2005 and 2015,and was expected to be accompanied by an extensive loss of farmland.The key susceptible to land-use changes were found to be located at the central urban Beijing and the surrounding regions including Yanqing County,Changping District and Fangshan District.Also,the simulations predicted a considerable expansion of urban/suburban areas in the mountainous regions of Beijing,suggesting a need for priority monitoring and protection.展开更多
Urban land intensive use is an important indicator in harmonizing the relationship between land supply and demand. The system dynamics(SD) can be used to construct the feedback loop between urban construction land sup...Urban land intensive use is an important indicator in harmonizing the relationship between land supply and demand. The system dynamics(SD) can be used to construct the feedback loop between urban construction land supply and demand and index variable function. Based on this, this study built a supply and demand system dynamic model of urban construction land for Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration. This model can simulate the change trends of supply and demand of construction land, industrial land, and residential land in 2016–2030 by three scenarios of low, medium, and high intensity modes. The results showed that the scale of construction land of urban agglomeration is expanding, with a rapid increase rate for the urban construction land. The scale and speed of land use based on the three intensity modes existed differences. The large scale and supply of construction land in the low intensity mode caused easily the waste of land resources. In high intensity mode, the scale and supply of construction land were reduced against the healthy development of new-type urbanization. In the medium intensity mode, the scale and supply of land use adapted to the socio-economic development and at the same time reflected the concept of modern urban development. In addition, the results of this study found that the proportion of industrial land in construction land ranged from 15% to 21%, which increased year by year in the low intensity mode, and decreased slowly and stabilized in medium and high intensity modes. The proportion of residential land in construction land ranged from 27% to 35%, which decreased in the low and the medium intensity modes, and maintained a high level in the higher intensity mode. This study contributes to provide scientific reference for decision-making optimization of land supply and demand, urban planning, and land supply-side reform.展开更多
Model simulation and scenario change analysis are the core contents of the future land-use change（LUC） study. In this paper, land use status data of the Three Gorges Reservoir Region（TGRR） in 1990 was used as base...Model simulation and scenario change analysis are the core contents of the future land-use change（LUC） study. In this paper, land use status data of the Three Gorges Reservoir Region（TGRR） in 1990 was used as base data. The relationship between driving factors and land-use change was analyzed by using binary logistic stepwise regression analysis, based on which land use in 2010 was simulated by CLUE-S model. After the inspection and determination of main parameters impacting on driving factors of land use in the TGRR, land use of this region in 2030 was simulated based on four scenarios, including natural growth, food security, migration-related construction and ecological conservation. The results were shown as follows：（1） The areas under ROC curves of land-use types（LUTs） were both greater than 0.8 under the analysis and inspection of binary logistic model. These LUTs include paddy field, dryland, woodland, grassland, construction land and water area. Therefore, it has a strong interpretation ability of driving factors on land use, which can be used in the estimation of land use probability distribution.（2） The Kappa coefficients, verified from the result of land-use simulation in 2010, were shown of paddy field 0.9, dryland 0.95, woodland 0.97, grassland 0.84, construction land 0.85 and water area 0.77. So the results of simulation could meet the needs of future simulation and prediction.（3） The results of multi-scenario simulation showed a spatial competitive relationship between different LUTs, and an influence on food security, migration-related construction and ecological conservation in the TGRR, including some land use actions such as the large-scale conversion from paddy field to dryland, the occupation on cultivated land, woodland and grassland for rapid expansion of construction land, the reclamation of woodland and grassland into cultivated land, returning steep sloping farmland back into woodland and grassland. Therefore, it is necessary to balance the needs of various aspects in land use optimization, to achieve the coordination between socio-economy and ecological environment.展开更多
Mountainous area makes up 22% of global land, and rational land use in this area is important for sustainable development. Mentougou district has been positioned as an ecological conservation development zone of Beiji...Mountainous area makes up 22% of global land, and rational land use in this area is important for sustainable development. Mentougou district has been positioned as an ecological conservation development zone of Beijing and significant land use changes have taken place since 2004. With the combination of GIS and Dinamica EGO(Environment for Geoprocessing Objects) model, the quantitative structure and spatial distribution of land use in Mentougou from 2006 to 2014 are analyzed in this paper. Considering topography has influence on the action mode of driving factors, the research area is divided into two parts based on elevation, mountainous area above 300 m, plain and shallow mountainous area below 300 m. Based on cellular automata theory, the probability of land use change is calculated by Weights of Evidence method and the spatial distribution of land use is simulated by means of two complementary spatial transition functions: Expander and Patcher. Land use pattern of Menougou in 2030 for three kinds of scenarios: trend development, rapid development and ecological protection are simulated. The comparison shows that the trend development scenario is more reasonable based on social, economic and environmental considerations and other scenarios provide a reference for improving irrational land use.展开更多
Land use/cover change(LUCC)is a major factor affecting net primary production(NPP).According to the LUCC of the Loess Plateau from 2005 to 2015,the LUCC patterns in 2025 in three scenarios were predicted by using the ...Land use/cover change(LUCC)is a major factor affecting net primary production(NPP).According to the LUCC of the Loess Plateau from 2005 to 2015,the LUCC patterns in 2025 in three scenarios were predicted by using the Future Land Use Simulation(FLUS)model.Furthermore,taking the average NPP of various land use/cover types in 16 years as the reference scale,the changes in NPP in multi-scenario simulations are predicted and analyzed,and the impact of different land use/cover transfers on NPP is quantified.The results are as follows:(1)The land use/cover changes greatly in the baseline and fast development scenarios,and changes relatively little in the ecological protection scenarios.(2)The changes in NPP in different scenarios reflected the significant difference in the ecological protection effect.All the three scenarios promote an NPP increase,but the ecological protection scenario can promote NPP increases the most.(3)The changes in NPP caused by LUCC in the three scenarios reflected the significant difference in the various land use/cover types protection effect.Analyzing and predicting NPP changes in multi-scenario LUCC simulations in the future can provide a theoretical basis for decision makers to judge the future changes in ecological environments and ecological protection effects against different policy backgrounds.展开更多
The application of satellite radiance assimilation can improve the simulation of precipitation by numerical weather prediction models. However, substantial quantities of satellite data, especially those derived from l...The application of satellite radiance assimilation can improve the simulation of precipitation by numerical weather prediction models. However, substantial quantities of satellite data, especially those derived from low-level（surface-sensitive）channels, are rejected for use because of the difficulty in realistically modeling land surface emissivity and energy budgets.Here, we used an improved land use and leaf area index（LAI） dataset in the WRF-3 DVAR assimilation system to explore the benefit of using improved quality of land surface information to improve rainfall simulation for the Shule River Basin in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau as a case study. The results for July 2013 show that, for low-level channels（e.g., channel 3）,the underestimation of brightness temperature in the original simulation was largely removed by more realistic land surface information. In addition, more satellite data could be utilized in the assimilation because the realistic land use and LAI data allowed more satellite radiance data to pass the deviation test and get used by the assimilation, which resulted in improved initial driving fields and better simulation in terms of temperature, relative humidity, vertical convection, and cumulative precipitation.展开更多
The Turpan-Hami(Tuha)Basin in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China,holds significant strategic importance as a key economic artery of the ancient Silk Road and the Belt and Road Initiative,necessitating a holisti...The Turpan-Hami(Tuha)Basin in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China,holds significant strategic importance as a key economic artery of the ancient Silk Road and the Belt and Road Initiative,necessitating a holistic understanding of the spatiotemporal evolution of land use/land cover(LULC)to foster sustainable planning that is tailored to the region's unique resource endowments.However,existing LULC classification methods demonstrate inadequate accuracy,hindering effective regional planning.In this study,we established a two-level LULC classification system(8 primary types and 22 secondary types)for the Tuha Basin.By employing Landsat 5/7/8 imagery at 5-a intervals,we developed the LULC dataset of the Tuha Basin from 1990 to 2020,conducted the accuracy assessment and spatiotemporal evolution analysis,and simulated the future LULC under various scenarios via the Markov-Future Land Use Simulation(Markov-FLUS)model.The results revealed that the average overall accuracy values of our LULC dataset were 0.917 and 0.864 for the primary types and secondary types,respectively.Compared with the seven mainstream LULC products(GlobeLand30,Global 30-meter Land Cover with Fine Classification System(GLC_FCS30),Finer Resolution Observation and Monitoring of Global Land Cover PLUS(FROM_GLC PLUS),ESA Global Land Cover(ESA_LC),Esri Land Cover(ESRI_LC),China Multi-Period Land Use Land Cover Change Remote Sensing Monitoring Dataset(CNLUCC),and China Annual Land Cover Dataset(CLCD))in 2020,our LULC data exhibited dramatically elevated overall accuracy and provided more precise delineations for land features,thereby yielding high-quality data backups for land resource analyses within the basin.In 2020,unused land(78.0%of the study area)and grassland(18.6%)were the dominant LULC types of the basin;although cropland and construction land constituted less than 1.0%of the total area,they played a vital role in arid land development and primarily situated within oases that form the urban cores of the cities of Turpan and Hami.Between 1990 and 2020,cropland and construction land exhibited a rapid expansion,and the total area of water body decreased yet resurging after 2015 due to an increase in areas of reservoir and pond.In future scenario simulations,significant increases in areas of construction land and cropland are anticipated under the business-as-usual scenario,whereas the wetland area will decrease,suggesting the need for ecological attention under this development pathway.In contrast,the economic development scenario underscores the fast-paced expansion of construction land,primarily from the conversion of unused land,highlighting the significant developmental potential of unused land with a slowing increase in cropland.Special attention should thus be directed toward ecological and cropland protection during development.This study provides data supports and policy recommendations for the sustainable development goals of Tuha Basin and other similar arid areas.展开更多
As the most economically developed metropolitan area in China’s Yangtze River Delta,the rapid changing land use patterns of Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou(Su-Xi-Chang) metropolitan area have profound impacts on the ecosystem ...As the most economically developed metropolitan area in China’s Yangtze River Delta,the rapid changing land use patterns of Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou(Su-Xi-Chang) metropolitan area have profound impacts on the ecosystem service value(ESV).Based on the patterns of land use change and the ESV change in Su-Xi-Chang metropolitan area from 2000 to 2020,we set up four scenarios:natural development scenario,urban development scenario,arable land protection scenario and ecological protection scenario,and simulated the impact of land use changes on the ESV in these scenarios.The results showed that:1) the area of built-up land in the Su-XiChang metropolitan area increased significantly from 2000 to 2020,and the area of other types of land decreased.Arable land underwent the highest transfer-out area,and was primarily converted into built-up land.The total ESV of Su-Xi-Chang metropolitan area increased initially then declined from 2000–2020,and the value of almost all individual ecosystem services decreased.2) Population density,GDP per area,night lighting intensity,and road network density can negatively impact the ESV.3) The total ESV loss under the natural development and urban development scenarios was high,and the expansion of the built-up land and the drastic shrinkage of the arable land contributed to the ESV decline under both scenarios.The total ESV under arable land protection and ecological protection scenarios increases,and therefore these scenarios are suitable for future land use optimization in Su-Xi-Chang.This study could provide a certain reference for land use planning and allocation,and offer guidance for the rational allocation of land resources.展开更多
In order to study the county scale land use structure during the rapid urbanization and more accurately grasp the dynamic process of land use and cover change,we combine GIS technology with CLUE-S model to research th...In order to study the county scale land use structure during the rapid urbanization and more accurately grasp the dynamic process of land use and cover change,we combine GIS technology with CLUE-S model to research the spatial pattern change of land use in Yongchuan District of Chongqing City. The results show that the forest and farmland were main land use types going through changes in Yongchuan District during 2000-2010,accounting for more than 90% of the total area in each year; during 2000- 2010,the urban area was significantly increased,an increase of 16. 11%,and the urban area during 2005- 2010 was changed more dramatically than during 2000- 2005; forest area was slightly increased and farmland area was reduced by 1660 ha in 10 years. We set three scenarios on land use change in Yongchuan District for simulation and compare the predicted results. It can be concluded that driven by rapid urbanization,the change in land use landscape pattern in Yongchuan District is mainly focused on forest and farmland,the urban area is substantially increased,and the forest area also shows an increasing trend while the farmland area is reduced accordingly. Under ecological protection scenarios,the land use type having a protective effect on the ecological environment achieves better control effect.展开更多
Ecological conservation area,as the main water source and ecological barrier of a city,provides ecosystem service for urban sustainable development.Land use simulation and forecast could be beneficial to improve futur...Ecological conservation area,as the main water source and ecological barrier of a city,provides ecosystem service for urban sustainable development.Land use simulation and forecast could be beneficial to improve future land use efficiency and environmental protection.In this paper,we took the Miyun district as the study area and applied the CLUE-S model for land use simulation,based on land use data in 2001 and 2010.Eight key driving factors were selected,including elevation,slope,distance,population density and others.Based on the adjusted model parameters,the land use patterns of 2020 in Miyun district were simulated respectively for rapid growth scenario,land use planning scenario and ecological protection scenario and then identify the area needed extraordinary supervision in land planning implementation.The results showed that the simulation accuracy for 2010 reached 85%considerably,implying that the CLUE-S model is well fitted for modeling the land use pattern in Miyun district.Construction land increases and cultivated land decreases dramatically by 2020 in rapid growth and land use planning scenarios.The potential land use change tends to occur near Miyun reservoir,while the sensitive area for ecological protection and land planning implementation are distributed around urban area,Fengjiayu and Jugezhuang town.Some opencast mine areas,which would be converted to forest land in planning,will be hard to execute in the actual situation,so these areas should be paid more attention in land management.The conclusions made in this study will provide data reference and basic information for the future ecological protection and land use planning implementation in Miyun district,which could also be useful for other similar cities.展开更多
The dynamic changes of land system in Huang - Huai - Hai Plain between 1988 and 2000 were researched in this paper. Spatial dominance econometric model was estabilished on 1 km cell to quantificafionally analyze the d...The dynamic changes of land system in Huang - Huai - Hai Plain between 1988 and 2000 were researched in this paper. Spatial dominance econometric model was estabilished on 1 km cell to quantificafionally analyze the driving-force for the dynamic change mechanism of land system, such as natural, social and economic factors. The future dynamic changes of land system in Huang - Huai - Hai Plain on each 1 km cell during 2000 to 2020 were stimulated by combining the dynamic changes of land system on each 1 km cell with different situations. The research indicated that the dynamic changes of land system structure changed mainly from the cultivated areas to building areas and industrial areas, and forest areas increased during this period. Although the revolutions of land system structure were different during 2000 to 2020 with the different referrence standard, ecological protection and economic development, the primary dynamic changes of land system structure were that the increase of building land areas with the decline cuhivaled land areas and the increase of woodlands.展开更多
Numerous emerging development areas worldwide are receiving attention;however,current research on land use change simulation primarily concentrates on cities,urban clusters,or larger scales.Moreover,there is a limited...Numerous emerging development areas worldwide are receiving attention;however,current research on land use change simulation primarily concentrates on cities,urban clusters,or larger scales.Moreover,there is a limited focus on understanding the impact of regional connectivity with surrounding cities and policy factors on land use change in these new areas.In this context,the present study utilizes a cellular automata(CA)model to investigate land use changes in the case of Nansha New District in Guangzhou,China.Three scenarios are examined,emphasizing conventional locational factors,policy considerations,and the influence of regional connectivity with surrounding cities.The results reveal several key findings:(1)Between 2015 and 2021,Nansha New District experienced significant land use changes,with the most notable shifts observed in cultivated land,water area,and construction land.(2)The comprehensive scenario exhibited the highest simulation accuracy,indicating that Nansha New District,as an emerging area,is notably influenced by policy factors and regional connectivity with surrounding cities.(3)Predictions for land use changes in Nansha by 2030,based on the scenario with the highest level of simulation accuracy,suggest an increase in the proportion of cultivated and forest land areas,alongside a decrease in the proportion of construction land and water area.This study contributes valuable insights to relevant studies and policymakers alike.展开更多
Northeast China as one of important agricultural production bases is an area under reclamation and returning cultivated land to forests or pastures. Therefore, it is of great practical significance in guaranteeing the...Northeast China as one of important agricultural production bases is an area under reclamation and returning cultivated land to forests or pastures. Therefore, it is of great practical significance in guaranteeing the sustainable development and national food security to study the spatial and temporal variation of cultivated land in Northeast China under future climate scenarios. In this study, based on data of land use, natural environment and social-economy, dynamics of land system（DLS） model was used to to simulate the spatial distribution and changing trends of cultivated land in the typical areas of reclamation and returning cultivated land to forest or pastures in Northeast China during 2010-2030 under land use planning scenario and representative concentration pathways（RCPs） scenarios quantitatively.The results showed that the area of cultivated land had an overall decreasing trend under the land use planning scenario, but the area of upland field increased slightly from 2000 to 2010 and then declined greatly, while the area of paddy field continuously declined from 2000 to 2030. Under the Asia-Pacific Integrated model（AIM）scenario, the total area of cultivated land had a tendency to increase considerably,with the upland field expanding more obviously and the paddy field declining slightly.In addition, the cultivated land showed a greater decreasing trend under the model for energy supply strategy alternatives and their general environmental impact（MESSAGE） scenario compared to the land use planning scenario. Moreover, analysis on the conversion between different land use types indicated that the reclamation and returning cultivated land to forests or pastures was likely to continue under future scenarios, but the frequency of occurrence could decrease as the time goes by. The conclusions can provide significant decision-making information for the rational agricultural planning and cultivated land protection in Northeast China to adapt to the climate change.展开更多
The Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent （CLUE-S） model is a widely used method to simulate land use change. An ordinary logistic regression model was integrated into the CLUE-S model to i...The Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent （CLUE-S） model is a widely used method to simulate land use change. An ordinary logistic regression model was integrated into the CLUE-S model to identify explanatory variables without considering the spatial autocorrelation effect. Using image-derived maps of the Changsha- Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration, the CLUE-S model was integrated with the ordinary logistic regression and autologistic regression models in this paper to simulate land use change in 2000, 2005 and 2009 based on an observation map from 1995. Significant positive spatial autocorrelation was detected in residuals of ordinary logistic models. Some variables that were much more significant than they should be were selected. Autologistic regression models, which used autocovariate incorporation, were better able to identify driving factors. The Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve （ROC） values of autologistic regression models were larger than 0.8 and the pseudo R^2 values were improved, compared with results of logistic regression model. By overlapping the observation maps, the Kappa values of the ordinary logistic regression model （OL）-CLUE-S and autologistic regression model （AL）-CLUE-S models were larger than 0.75. The results showed that the simulation results were indeed accurate. The Kappa fuzzy （Kfuzzy） values of the AL-CLUE-S models （0.780, 0.773, 0.606） were larger than the values of the OL-CLUE-S models （0.759, 0.760, 0.599） during the three periods. The AL-CLUE-S models performed better than the OL-CLUE-S models in the simulation of land use change. The results showed that it is reasonable to integrate autocovariates into CLUE-S models. However, the Kfuzzy values decreased with prolonged duration of simulation and the maximum range of time was not discussed in this paper.展开更多
Under the demand of urban expansion and the constraints of China’s’National Main Functional Area Planning’policy,urban agglomerations are facing with a huge contradiction between land utilization and ecological pro...Under the demand of urban expansion and the constraints of China’s’National Main Functional Area Planning’policy,urban agglomerations are facing with a huge contradiction between land utilization and ecological protection,especially for HarbinChangchun urban agglomeration who owns a large number of land used for the protection of agricultural production and ecological function.To alleviate this contradiction and provide insight into future land use patterns under different ecological constraints’scenarios,we introduced the patch-based land use simulation(PLUS)model and simulated urban expansion of the Harbin-Changchun urban agglomeration.After verifying the accuracy of the simulation result in 2018,we predicted future urban expansion under the constraints of three different ecological scenarios in 2026.The morphological spatial pattern analysis(MSPA)method and minimum cumulative resistance(MCR)model were also introduced to identify different levels of ecological security pattern(ESP)as ecological constraints.The predicted result of the optimal protection(OP)scenario showed less proportion of water and forest than those of natural expansion(NE)and basic protection(BP)scenarios in 2026.The conclusions are that the PLUS model can improve the simulation accuracy at urban agglomeration scale compared with other cellular automata(CA)models,and the future urban expansion under OP scenario has the least threat to the ecosystem,while the expansion under the natural expansion(NE)scenario poses the greatest threat to the ecosystem.Combined with the MSPA and MCR methods,PLUS model can also be used in other spatial simulations of urban agglomerations under ecological constraints.展开更多
In recent years,urban floods have increased in frequency and severity due to intensified extreme rainfall events exacerbated by rapid urbanization.This study integrates a Markov-PLUS model and a rainfall-runoff-flood ...In recent years,urban floods have increased in frequency and severity due to intensified extreme rainfall events exacerbated by rapid urbanization.This study integrates a Markov-PLUS model and a rainfall-runoff-flood hydraulic numerical model to establish a scenario-based research framework for identifying interactions between land use dynamics and urban flood risk,using the Jialu River basin in Zhengzhou,China,as a case study.Future land use changes under three scenarios were forecast:Natural Development(ND),Economic Development(ED),and Ecological Protection(EP),alongside rainfall scenarios occurring every 10,50,and 100 years.There were expansions and decreases in construction land under the ED and EP scenarios,respectively,emphasizing the importance of prioritizing ecological conservation.Economic scenarios showed the highest risks under the increased surface runoff and flood risk driven by higher rainstorm intensity.Over the next 15 years,the Economic Development scenario is projected to increase flood hazard areas,whereas the intensified Ecological Protection scenario is expected to reduce these risks.This underscores the contribution of prioritizing ecological conservation to mitigating disaster risks,calling for enhanced drainage systems and elevated flood protection standards to promote resilient urban development in the face of increasingly severe urban flood challenges.展开更多
基金supported by the Science Fund for the Gansu Provincial Natural Science Foundation Project(22JR5RA339).
文摘Land use/cover change(LUCC)constitutes the spatial and temporal patterns of ecological security,and the construction of ecological networks is an effective way to ensure ecological security.Exploring the spatial and temporal change characteristics of ecological network and analyzing the integrated relationship between LUCC and ecological security are crucial for ensuring regional ecological security.Gansu is one of the provinces with fragile ecological environment in China,and rapid changes in land use patterns in recent decades have threatened ecological security.Therefore,taking Gansu Province as the study area,this study simulated its land use pattern in 2050 using patch-generating land use simulation(PLUS)model based on the LUCC trend from 2000 to 2020 and integrated the LUCC into morphological spatial pattern analysis(MSPA)to identify ecological sources and extract the ecological corridors to construct ecological network using circuit theory.The results revealed that,according to the prediction results in 2050,the areas of cultivated land,forest land,grassland,water body,construction land,and unused land would be 63,447.52,39,510.80,148,115.18,4605.21,8368.89,and 161,752.40 km^(2),respectively.The number of ecological sources in Gansu Province would increase to 80,with a total area of 99,927.18 km^(2).The number of ecological corridors would increase to 191,with an estimated total length of 6120.66 km.Both ecological sources and ecological corridors showed a sparse distribution in the northwest and dense distribution in the southeast of the province at the spatial scale.The number of ecological pinch points would reach 312 and the total area would expect to increase to 842.84 km^(2),with the most pronounced increase in the Longdong region.Compared with 2020,the number and area of ecological barriers in 2050 would decrease significantly by 63 and 370.71 km^(2),respectively.In general,based on the prediction results,the connectivity of ecological network of Gansu Province would increase in 2050.To achieve the predicted ecological network in 2050,emphasis should be placed on the protection of cultivated land and ecological land,the establishment of ecological sources in desert areas,the reinforcement of the protection for existing ecological sources,and the construction of ecological corridors to enhance the stability of ecological network.This study provides valuable theoretical support and references for the future construction of ecological networks and regional land resource management decision-making.
文摘Rapid urbanization and land-use changes are placing immense pressure on resources,infrastructure,and envi-ronmental sustainability.To address these,accurate urban simulation models are essential for sustainable development and governance.Among them,Cellular Automata(CA)models have become key tools for pre-dicting urban expansion,optimizing land-use planning,and supporting data-driven decision-making.This review provides a comprehensive examination of the development of urban cellular automata(UCA)models,presenting a new framework to enhance individual UCA sub-modules within the context of emerging technologies,sus-tainable environments,and public governance.By addressing gaps in prior UCA modelling reviews-particularly in the integration and optimization of UCA sub-module technologies-this framework is designed to simplify UCA model understanding and development.We systematically review pioneering case studies,deconstruct current UCA operational processes,and explore modern technologies,such as big data and artificial intelligence,to optimize these sub-modules further.We discuss current limitations within UCA models and propose future pathways,emphasizing the necessity of comprehensive analyses for effective UCA simulations.Proposed solu-tions include strengthening our understanding of urban growth mechanisms,examining spatial positioning and temporal evolution dynamics,and enhancing urban geographic simulations with deep learning techniques to support sustainable transitions in public governance.These improvements offer data-driven decision support for environmental management,advancing policies that foster sustainable urban development.
基金The National Social Science Foundation of China(No.14AJY013)the Scientific Innovation Research of College Graduates in Jiangsu Province(No.CXLX13_126)
文摘In order to simulate the evolution of affordable housing land use a dynamic model that combines cellular automata CA and a multi-agent system MAS is established.This paper aims to utilize the approach of decision factors on site selection of affordable housing through a literature review to construct a hierarchy model of those factors identifying the weight of each factor by an analytic hierarchy process AHP .Based on those weight factors the CA-MAS model is designed. Nanjing city is taken as an example to verify the feasibility of the model.The results show that the CA-MAS model is pragmatic and effective in simulating evolution of affordable housing land use which also promotes the fundamental understanding and perception of the development of affordable housing and urbanization.
基金Under the auspices of Zhejiang Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China(No.LY19C160007)。
文摘In recent years,rapid urbanization has had a profound impact on landscape stability.As a typical example of China's rapid urbanization,Hangzhou has also experienced significant landscape changes,which have profoundly affected its ecological stability.Taking Hangzhou as an example,this study integrates land use change data from 1980 to 2020,combines dynamic simulation and ecological modeling techniques,and carries out a comprehensive analysis of historical trends and future predictions,to provide valuable insights into the complex interactions between urban expansion and landscape stability.The results indicate that:1)between 1980 and2020,Hangzhou experienced a significant increase in construction land at the expense of arable land,leading to a gradual decline in landscape stability,though the downward trend has slowed in recent years.2)The spatial distribution of landscape stability shows clear aggregation patterns,with lower stability concentrated in economically active flatlands and higher stability in the mountainous western regions.3)By 2040,further urban expansion is predicted to occur alongside increased landscape integration,reflecting the positive effects of ecological protection strategies.This study highlights the universal challenges of balancing economic growth with ecological stability in rapidly urbanizing regions.The combination of advanced simulation models and spatiotemporal analysis demonstrates a replicable framework for assessing urban expansion's ecological impacts.These findings underscore the importance of tailoring urban planning and ecological policies to address regional disparities,providing valuable insights for sustainable urban development and landscape management globally.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 70903061,41171440)National Public Benefit (Land) Research Foundation of China (No. 201111014)Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (No. 2011YXL055)
文摘This study investigated and simulated land use patterns in Beijing for the year 2000 and the year 2005 from the actual land use data for the year 1995 and the year 2000,respectively,by combining spatial land allocation simulation using the CLUE-S model,and numerical land demand prediction using the Markov model.The simulations for 2000 and 2005 were confirmed to be generally accurate using Kappa indices.Then the land-use scenarios for Beijing in 2015 were simulated assuming two modes of development:1) urban development following existing trends;and 2) under a strict farmland control.The simulations suggested that under either mode,urbanized areas would expand at the expense of land for other uses.This expansion was predicted to dominate the land-use conversions between 2005 and 2015,and was expected to be accompanied by an extensive loss of farmland.The key susceptible to land-use changes were found to be located at the central urban Beijing and the surrounding regions including Yanqing County,Changping District and Fangshan District.Also,the simulations predicted a considerable expansion of urban/suburban areas in the mountainous regions of Beijing,suggesting a need for priority monitoring and protection.
基金National Social Science Foundation of China,No.15BJY051Social Science Foundation of Hunan Province,No.16ZDB04,No.13YBA016+2 种基金Research Project of Appraisement Committee of Social Sciences Research Achievements of Hunan Province,No.XSP18ZDI031Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province,No.2017JJ2264Science&Technology Research Project of the Department of Land and Resource of Hunan Province,No.2014-13
文摘Urban land intensive use is an important indicator in harmonizing the relationship between land supply and demand. The system dynamics(SD) can be used to construct the feedback loop between urban construction land supply and demand and index variable function. Based on this, this study built a supply and demand system dynamic model of urban construction land for Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration. This model can simulate the change trends of supply and demand of construction land, industrial land, and residential land in 2016–2030 by three scenarios of low, medium, and high intensity modes. The results showed that the scale of construction land of urban agglomeration is expanding, with a rapid increase rate for the urban construction land. The scale and speed of land use based on the three intensity modes existed differences. The large scale and supply of construction land in the low intensity mode caused easily the waste of land resources. In high intensity mode, the scale and supply of construction land were reduced against the healthy development of new-type urbanization. In the medium intensity mode, the scale and supply of land use adapted to the socio-economic development and at the same time reflected the concept of modern urban development. In addition, the results of this study found that the proportion of industrial land in construction land ranged from 15% to 21%, which increased year by year in the low intensity mode, and decreased slowly and stabilized in medium and high intensity modes. The proportion of residential land in construction land ranged from 27% to 35%, which decreased in the low and the medium intensity modes, and maintained a high level in the higher intensity mode. This study contributes to provide scientific reference for decision-making optimization of land supply and demand, urban planning, and land supply-side reform.
基金Chongqing University Innovation Team for 2016,No.CXTDX201601017Chongqing Research Program of Basic Research and Frontier Technology,No.cstc2017jcyjB0317
文摘Model simulation and scenario change analysis are the core contents of the future land-use change（LUC） study. In this paper, land use status data of the Three Gorges Reservoir Region（TGRR） in 1990 was used as base data. The relationship between driving factors and land-use change was analyzed by using binary logistic stepwise regression analysis, based on which land use in 2010 was simulated by CLUE-S model. After the inspection and determination of main parameters impacting on driving factors of land use in the TGRR, land use of this region in 2030 was simulated based on four scenarios, including natural growth, food security, migration-related construction and ecological conservation. The results were shown as follows：（1） The areas under ROC curves of land-use types（LUTs） were both greater than 0.8 under the analysis and inspection of binary logistic model. These LUTs include paddy field, dryland, woodland, grassland, construction land and water area. Therefore, it has a strong interpretation ability of driving factors on land use, which can be used in the estimation of land use probability distribution.（2） The Kappa coefficients, verified from the result of land-use simulation in 2010, were shown of paddy field 0.9, dryland 0.95, woodland 0.97, grassland 0.84, construction land 0.85 and water area 0.77. So the results of simulation could meet the needs of future simulation and prediction.（3） The results of multi-scenario simulation showed a spatial competitive relationship between different LUTs, and an influence on food security, migration-related construction and ecological conservation in the TGRR, including some land use actions such as the large-scale conversion from paddy field to dryland, the occupation on cultivated land, woodland and grassland for rapid expansion of construction land, the reclamation of woodland and grassland into cultivated land, returning steep sloping farmland back into woodland and grassland. Therefore, it is necessary to balance the needs of various aspects in land use optimization, to achieve the coordination between socio-economy and ecological environment.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under(Grant No.41877533)Beijing Social Science Foundation(Grant No.18GLB014)
文摘Mountainous area makes up 22% of global land, and rational land use in this area is important for sustainable development. Mentougou district has been positioned as an ecological conservation development zone of Beijing and significant land use changes have taken place since 2004. With the combination of GIS and Dinamica EGO(Environment for Geoprocessing Objects) model, the quantitative structure and spatial distribution of land use in Mentougou from 2006 to 2014 are analyzed in this paper. Considering topography has influence on the action mode of driving factors, the research area is divided into two parts based on elevation, mountainous area above 300 m, plain and shallow mountainous area below 300 m. Based on cellular automata theory, the probability of land use change is calculated by Weights of Evidence method and the spatial distribution of land use is simulated by means of two complementary spatial transition functions: Expander and Patcher. Land use pattern of Menougou in 2030 for three kinds of scenarios: trend development, rapid development and ecological protection are simulated. The comparison shows that the trend development scenario is more reasonable based on social, economic and environmental considerations and other scenarios provide a reference for improving irrational land use.
基金The Key Research and Development Program of Shaanxi Province,No.2020NY-166Project of Special Investigation on Basic Resources of Science and Technology,No.2019FY202501。
文摘Land use/cover change(LUCC)is a major factor affecting net primary production(NPP).According to the LUCC of the Loess Plateau from 2005 to 2015,the LUCC patterns in 2025 in three scenarios were predicted by using the Future Land Use Simulation(FLUS)model.Furthermore,taking the average NPP of various land use/cover types in 16 years as the reference scale,the changes in NPP in multi-scenario simulations are predicted and analyzed,and the impact of different land use/cover transfers on NPP is quantified.The results are as follows:(1)The land use/cover changes greatly in the baseline and fast development scenarios,and changes relatively little in the ecological protection scenarios.(2)The changes in NPP in different scenarios reflected the significant difference in the ecological protection effect.All the three scenarios promote an NPP increase,but the ecological protection scenario can promote NPP increases the most.(3)The changes in NPP caused by LUCC in the three scenarios reflected the significant difference in the various land use/cover types protection effect.Analyzing and predicting NPP changes in multi-scenario LUCC simulations in the future can provide a theoretical basis for decision makers to judge the future changes in ecological environments and ecological protection effects against different policy backgrounds.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2016YFA0602701)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41721091,41630754,91644225)the Open Program(Grant No.SKLCS-OP-2017-02)from the State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science,Northwest Institute of EcoEnvironment and Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences
文摘The application of satellite radiance assimilation can improve the simulation of precipitation by numerical weather prediction models. However, substantial quantities of satellite data, especially those derived from low-level（surface-sensitive）channels, are rejected for use because of the difficulty in realistically modeling land surface emissivity and energy budgets.Here, we used an improved land use and leaf area index（LAI） dataset in the WRF-3 DVAR assimilation system to explore the benefit of using improved quality of land surface information to improve rainfall simulation for the Shule River Basin in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau as a case study. The results for July 2013 show that, for low-level channels（e.g., channel 3）,the underestimation of brightness temperature in the original simulation was largely removed by more realistic land surface information. In addition, more satellite data could be utilized in the assimilation because the realistic land use and LAI data allowed more satellite radiance data to pass the deviation test and get used by the assimilation, which resulted in improved initial driving fields and better simulation in terms of temperature, relative humidity, vertical convection, and cumulative precipitation.
基金supported by the Third Xinjiang Scientific Expedition Program (2022xjkk1100)the Tianchi Talent Project
文摘The Turpan-Hami(Tuha)Basin in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China,holds significant strategic importance as a key economic artery of the ancient Silk Road and the Belt and Road Initiative,necessitating a holistic understanding of the spatiotemporal evolution of land use/land cover(LULC)to foster sustainable planning that is tailored to the region's unique resource endowments.However,existing LULC classification methods demonstrate inadequate accuracy,hindering effective regional planning.In this study,we established a two-level LULC classification system(8 primary types and 22 secondary types)for the Tuha Basin.By employing Landsat 5/7/8 imagery at 5-a intervals,we developed the LULC dataset of the Tuha Basin from 1990 to 2020,conducted the accuracy assessment and spatiotemporal evolution analysis,and simulated the future LULC under various scenarios via the Markov-Future Land Use Simulation(Markov-FLUS)model.The results revealed that the average overall accuracy values of our LULC dataset were 0.917 and 0.864 for the primary types and secondary types,respectively.Compared with the seven mainstream LULC products(GlobeLand30,Global 30-meter Land Cover with Fine Classification System(GLC_FCS30),Finer Resolution Observation and Monitoring of Global Land Cover PLUS(FROM_GLC PLUS),ESA Global Land Cover(ESA_LC),Esri Land Cover(ESRI_LC),China Multi-Period Land Use Land Cover Change Remote Sensing Monitoring Dataset(CNLUCC),and China Annual Land Cover Dataset(CLCD))in 2020,our LULC data exhibited dramatically elevated overall accuracy and provided more precise delineations for land features,thereby yielding high-quality data backups for land resource analyses within the basin.In 2020,unused land(78.0%of the study area)and grassland(18.6%)were the dominant LULC types of the basin;although cropland and construction land constituted less than 1.0%of the total area,they played a vital role in arid land development and primarily situated within oases that form the urban cores of the cities of Turpan and Hami.Between 1990 and 2020,cropland and construction land exhibited a rapid expansion,and the total area of water body decreased yet resurging after 2015 due to an increase in areas of reservoir and pond.In future scenario simulations,significant increases in areas of construction land and cropland are anticipated under the business-as-usual scenario,whereas the wetland area will decrease,suggesting the need for ecological attention under this development pathway.In contrast,the economic development scenario underscores the fast-paced expansion of construction land,primarily from the conversion of unused land,highlighting the significant developmental potential of unused land with a slowing increase in cropland.Special attention should thus be directed toward ecological and cropland protection during development.This study provides data supports and policy recommendations for the sustainable development goals of Tuha Basin and other similar arid areas.
基金Under the auspices of Humanities and Social Sciences Foundation of Soochow University(No.22XM2008)National Social Science Foundation of China(No.23BGL168)。
文摘As the most economically developed metropolitan area in China’s Yangtze River Delta,the rapid changing land use patterns of Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou(Su-Xi-Chang) metropolitan area have profound impacts on the ecosystem service value(ESV).Based on the patterns of land use change and the ESV change in Su-Xi-Chang metropolitan area from 2000 to 2020,we set up four scenarios:natural development scenario,urban development scenario,arable land protection scenario and ecological protection scenario,and simulated the impact of land use changes on the ESV in these scenarios.The results showed that:1) the area of built-up land in the Su-XiChang metropolitan area increased significantly from 2000 to 2020,and the area of other types of land decreased.Arable land underwent the highest transfer-out area,and was primarily converted into built-up land.The total ESV of Su-Xi-Chang metropolitan area increased initially then declined from 2000–2020,and the value of almost all individual ecosystem services decreased.2) Population density,GDP per area,night lighting intensity,and road network density can negatively impact the ESV.3) The total ESV loss under the natural development and urban development scenarios was high,and the expansion of the built-up land and the drastic shrinkage of the arable land contributed to the ESV decline under both scenarios.The total ESV under arable land protection and ecological protection scenarios increases,and therefore these scenarios are suitable for future land use optimization in Su-Xi-Chang.This study could provide a certain reference for land use planning and allocation,and offer guidance for the rational allocation of land resources.
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(41171442)
文摘In order to study the county scale land use structure during the rapid urbanization and more accurately grasp the dynamic process of land use and cover change,we combine GIS technology with CLUE-S model to research the spatial pattern change of land use in Yongchuan District of Chongqing City. The results show that the forest and farmland were main land use types going through changes in Yongchuan District during 2000-2010,accounting for more than 90% of the total area in each year; during 2000- 2010,the urban area was significantly increased,an increase of 16. 11%,and the urban area during 2005- 2010 was changed more dramatically than during 2000- 2005; forest area was slightly increased and farmland area was reduced by 1660 ha in 10 years. We set three scenarios on land use change in Yongchuan District for simulation and compare the predicted results. It can be concluded that driven by rapid urbanization,the change in land use landscape pattern in Yongchuan District is mainly focused on forest and farmland,the urban area is substantially increased,and the forest area also shows an increasing trend while the farmland area is reduced accordingly. Under ecological protection scenarios,the land use type having a protective effect on the ecological environment achieves better control effect.
文摘Ecological conservation area,as the main water source and ecological barrier of a city,provides ecosystem service for urban sustainable development.Land use simulation and forecast could be beneficial to improve future land use efficiency and environmental protection.In this paper,we took the Miyun district as the study area and applied the CLUE-S model for land use simulation,based on land use data in 2001 and 2010.Eight key driving factors were selected,including elevation,slope,distance,population density and others.Based on the adjusted model parameters,the land use patterns of 2020 in Miyun district were simulated respectively for rapid growth scenario,land use planning scenario and ecological protection scenario and then identify the area needed extraordinary supervision in land planning implementation.The results showed that the simulation accuracy for 2010 reached 85%considerably,implying that the CLUE-S model is well fitted for modeling the land use pattern in Miyun district.Construction land increases and cultivated land decreases dramatically by 2020 in rapid growth and land use planning scenarios.The potential land use change tends to occur near Miyun reservoir,while the sensitive area for ecological protection and land planning implementation are distributed around urban area,Fengjiayu and Jugezhuang town.Some opencast mine areas,which would be converted to forest land in planning,will be hard to execute in the actual situation,so these areas should be paid more attention in land management.The conclusions made in this study will provide data reference and basic information for the future ecological protection and land use planning implementation in Miyun district,which could also be useful for other similar cities.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(70503025)the Knowledge Innovation Project of Chinese Academy of Sci-ences(KZCX2-YW-305-2+3 种基金KSCX2-YW-N-039)the National Project of Scientific and Technical Supporting Programs(2006BAC08B032006BAC08B06)international cooperation program of science and technolo-gy ministry(2006DFB919201).~~
文摘The dynamic changes of land system in Huang - Huai - Hai Plain between 1988 and 2000 were researched in this paper. Spatial dominance econometric model was estabilished on 1 km cell to quantificafionally analyze the driving-force for the dynamic change mechanism of land system, such as natural, social and economic factors. The future dynamic changes of land system in Huang - Huai - Hai Plain on each 1 km cell during 2000 to 2020 were stimulated by combining the dynamic changes of land system on each 1 km cell with different situations. The research indicated that the dynamic changes of land system structure changed mainly from the cultivated areas to building areas and industrial areas, and forest areas increased during this period. Although the revolutions of land system structure were different during 2000 to 2020 with the different referrence standard, ecological protection and economic development, the primary dynamic changes of land system structure were that the increase of building land areas with the decline cuhivaled land areas and the increase of woodlands.
基金This research received was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42271217)the Guangdong Planning Office of Philosophy and Social Science(Grant No.GD21CGL15).
文摘Numerous emerging development areas worldwide are receiving attention;however,current research on land use change simulation primarily concentrates on cities,urban clusters,or larger scales.Moreover,there is a limited focus on understanding the impact of regional connectivity with surrounding cities and policy factors on land use change in these new areas.In this context,the present study utilizes a cellular automata(CA)model to investigate land use changes in the case of Nansha New District in Guangzhou,China.Three scenarios are examined,emphasizing conventional locational factors,policy considerations,and the influence of regional connectivity with surrounding cities.The results reveal several key findings:(1)Between 2015 and 2021,Nansha New District experienced significant land use changes,with the most notable shifts observed in cultivated land,water area,and construction land.(2)The comprehensive scenario exhibited the highest simulation accuracy,indicating that Nansha New District,as an emerging area,is notably influenced by policy factors and regional connectivity with surrounding cities.(3)Predictions for land use changes in Nansha by 2030,based on the scenario with the highest level of simulation accuracy,suggest an increase in the proportion of cultivated and forest land areas,alongside a decrease in the proportion of construction land and water area.This study contributes valuable insights to relevant studies and policymakers alike.
基金Supported by the Major Research Project of National Natural Science Foundation Committee(91325302)China Postdoctoral Foundation(2014M560110)Hebei Social Science Foundation(HB15GL087)~~
文摘Northeast China as one of important agricultural production bases is an area under reclamation and returning cultivated land to forests or pastures. Therefore, it is of great practical significance in guaranteeing the sustainable development and national food security to study the spatial and temporal variation of cultivated land in Northeast China under future climate scenarios. In this study, based on data of land use, natural environment and social-economy, dynamics of land system（DLS） model was used to to simulate the spatial distribution and changing trends of cultivated land in the typical areas of reclamation and returning cultivated land to forest or pastures in Northeast China during 2010-2030 under land use planning scenario and representative concentration pathways（RCPs） scenarios quantitatively.The results showed that the area of cultivated land had an overall decreasing trend under the land use planning scenario, but the area of upland field increased slightly from 2000 to 2010 and then declined greatly, while the area of paddy field continuously declined from 2000 to 2030. Under the Asia-Pacific Integrated model（AIM）scenario, the total area of cultivated land had a tendency to increase considerably,with the upland field expanding more obviously and the paddy field declining slightly.In addition, the cultivated land showed a greater decreasing trend under the model for energy supply strategy alternatives and their general environmental impact（MESSAGE） scenario compared to the land use planning scenario. Moreover, analysis on the conversion between different land use types indicated that the reclamation and returning cultivated land to forests or pastures was likely to continue under future scenarios, but the frequency of occurrence could decrease as the time goes by. The conclusions can provide significant decision-making information for the rational agricultural planning and cultivated land protection in Northeast China to adapt to the climate change.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.41171318National Key Technology Support Program,No.2012BAH32B03+1 种基金No.2012BAH33B05Special Fund for Forest Scientific Research in the Public Welfare,No.201204201
文摘The Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent （CLUE-S） model is a widely used method to simulate land use change. An ordinary logistic regression model was integrated into the CLUE-S model to identify explanatory variables without considering the spatial autocorrelation effect. Using image-derived maps of the Changsha- Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration, the CLUE-S model was integrated with the ordinary logistic regression and autologistic regression models in this paper to simulate land use change in 2000, 2005 and 2009 based on an observation map from 1995. Significant positive spatial autocorrelation was detected in residuals of ordinary logistic models. Some variables that were much more significant than they should be were selected. Autologistic regression models, which used autocovariate incorporation, were better able to identify driving factors. The Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve （ROC） values of autologistic regression models were larger than 0.8 and the pseudo R^2 values were improved, compared with results of logistic regression model. By overlapping the observation maps, the Kappa values of the ordinary logistic regression model （OL）-CLUE-S and autologistic regression model （AL）-CLUE-S models were larger than 0.75. The results showed that the simulation results were indeed accurate. The Kappa fuzzy （Kfuzzy） values of the AL-CLUE-S models （0.780, 0.773, 0.606） were larger than the values of the OL-CLUE-S models （0.759, 0.760, 0.599） during the three periods. The AL-CLUE-S models performed better than the OL-CLUE-S models in the simulation of land use change. The results showed that it is reasonable to integrate autocovariates into CLUE-S models. However, the Kfuzzy values decreased with prolonged duration of simulation and the maximum range of time was not discussed in this paper.
基金Under the auspices of National Key R&D Program of China(No.2018YFC0704705)。
文摘Under the demand of urban expansion and the constraints of China’s’National Main Functional Area Planning’policy,urban agglomerations are facing with a huge contradiction between land utilization and ecological protection,especially for HarbinChangchun urban agglomeration who owns a large number of land used for the protection of agricultural production and ecological function.To alleviate this contradiction and provide insight into future land use patterns under different ecological constraints’scenarios,we introduced the patch-based land use simulation(PLUS)model and simulated urban expansion of the Harbin-Changchun urban agglomeration.After verifying the accuracy of the simulation result in 2018,we predicted future urban expansion under the constraints of three different ecological scenarios in 2026.The morphological spatial pattern analysis(MSPA)method and minimum cumulative resistance(MCR)model were also introduced to identify different levels of ecological security pattern(ESP)as ecological constraints.The predicted result of the optimal protection(OP)scenario showed less proportion of water and forest than those of natural expansion(NE)and basic protection(BP)scenarios in 2026.The conclusions are that the PLUS model can improve the simulation accuracy at urban agglomeration scale compared with other cellular automata(CA)models,and the future urban expansion under OP scenario has the least threat to the ecosystem,while the expansion under the natural expansion(NE)scenario poses the greatest threat to the ecosystem.Combined with the MSPA and MCR methods,PLUS model can also be used in other spatial simulations of urban agglomerations under ecological constraints.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Plan of China(Grants No.2022YFC3004404 and 2023YFF1305303)。
文摘In recent years,urban floods have increased in frequency and severity due to intensified extreme rainfall events exacerbated by rapid urbanization.This study integrates a Markov-PLUS model and a rainfall-runoff-flood hydraulic numerical model to establish a scenario-based research framework for identifying interactions between land use dynamics and urban flood risk,using the Jialu River basin in Zhengzhou,China,as a case study.Future land use changes under three scenarios were forecast:Natural Development(ND),Economic Development(ED),and Ecological Protection(EP),alongside rainfall scenarios occurring every 10,50,and 100 years.There were expansions and decreases in construction land under the ED and EP scenarios,respectively,emphasizing the importance of prioritizing ecological conservation.Economic scenarios showed the highest risks under the increased surface runoff and flood risk driven by higher rainstorm intensity.Over the next 15 years,the Economic Development scenario is projected to increase flood hazard areas,whereas the intensified Ecological Protection scenario is expected to reduce these risks.This underscores the contribution of prioritizing ecological conservation to mitigating disaster risks,calling for enhanced drainage systems and elevated flood protection standards to promote resilient urban development in the face of increasingly severe urban flood challenges.
