Land use/cover change(LUCC)constitutes the spatial and temporal patterns of ecological security,and the construction of ecological networks is an effective way to ensure ecological security.Exploring the spatial and t...Land use/cover change(LUCC)constitutes the spatial and temporal patterns of ecological security,and the construction of ecological networks is an effective way to ensure ecological security.Exploring the spatial and temporal change characteristics of ecological network and analyzing the integrated relationship between LUCC and ecological security are crucial for ensuring regional ecological security.Gansu is one of the provinces with fragile ecological environment in China,and rapid changes in land use patterns in recent decades have threatened ecological security.Therefore,taking Gansu Province as the study area,this study simulated its land use pattern in 2050 using patch-generating land use simulation(PLUS)model based on the LUCC trend from 2000 to 2020 and integrated the LUCC into morphological spatial pattern analysis(MSPA)to identify ecological sources and extract the ecological corridors to construct ecological network using circuit theory.The results revealed that,according to the prediction results in 2050,the areas of cultivated land,forest land,grassland,water body,construction land,and unused land would be 63,447.52,39,510.80,148,115.18,4605.21,8368.89,and 161,752.40 km^(2),respectively.The number of ecological sources in Gansu Province would increase to 80,with a total area of 99,927.18 km^(2).The number of ecological corridors would increase to 191,with an estimated total length of 6120.66 km.Both ecological sources and ecological corridors showed a sparse distribution in the northwest and dense distribution in the southeast of the province at the spatial scale.The number of ecological pinch points would reach 312 and the total area would expect to increase to 842.84 km^(2),with the most pronounced increase in the Longdong region.Compared with 2020,the number and area of ecological barriers in 2050 would decrease significantly by 63 and 370.71 km^(2),respectively.In general,based on the prediction results,the connectivity of ecological network of Gansu Province would increase in 2050.To achieve the predicted ecological network in 2050,emphasis should be placed on the protection of cultivated land and ecological land,the establishment of ecological sources in desert areas,the reinforcement of the protection for existing ecological sources,and the construction of ecological corridors to enhance the stability of ecological network.This study provides valuable theoretical support and references for the future construction of ecological networks and regional land resource management decision-making.展开更多
Carbon storage serves as a key indicator of ecosystem services and plays a vital role in maintaining the global carbon balance.Land use and cover change(LUCC)is one of the primary drivers influencing carbon storage va...Carbon storage serves as a key indicator of ecosystem services and plays a vital role in maintaining the global carbon balance.Land use and cover change(LUCC)is one of the primary drivers influencing carbon storage variations in terrestrial ecosystems.Therefore,evaluating the impacts of LUCC on carbon storage is crucial for achieving strategic goals such as the China’s dual carbon goals(including carbon peaking and carbon neutrality).This study focuses on the Aral Irrigation Area in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,China,to assess the impacts of LUCC on regional carbon storage and their spatiotemporal dynamics.A comprehensive LUCC database from 2000 to 2020 was developed using Landsat satellite imagery and the random forest classification algorithm.The integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs(InVEST)model was applied to quantify carbon storage and analyze its response to LUCC.Additionally,future LUCC patterns for 2030 were projected under multiple development scenarios using the patch-generating land use simulation(PLUS)model.These future LUCC scenarios were integrated with the InVEST model to simulate carbon storage trends under different land management pathways.Between 2000 and 2020,the dominant land use types in the study area were cropland(area proportion of 35.52%),unused land(34.80%),and orchard land(12.19%).The conversion of unused land and orchard land significantly expanded the area of cropland,which increased by 115,742.55 hm^(2).During this period,total carbon storage and carbon density increased by 7.87×10^(6) Mg C and 20.19 Mg C/hm^(2),respectively.The primary driver of this increase was the conversion of unused land into cropland,accounting for 49.28%of the total carbon storage gain.Carbon storage was notably lower along the northeastern and southeastern edges.By 2030,the projected carbon storage is expected to increase by 0.99×10^(6),1.55×10^(6),and 1.71×10^(6) Mg C under the natural development,cropland protection,and ecological conservation scenarios,respectively.In contrast,under the urban development scenario,carbon storage is projected to decline by 0.40×10^(6) Mg C.In line with China’s dual carbon goals,the ecological conservation scenario emerges as the most effective strategy for enhancing carbon storage.Accordingly,strict enforcement of the cropland red line is recommended.This study provides a valuable scientific foundation for regional ecosystem restoration and sustainable development in arid regions.展开更多
Regional sustainable development necessitates a holistic understanding of spatiotemporal variations in ecosystem carbon storage(ECS),particularly in ecologically sensitive areas with arid and semi-arid climate.In this...Regional sustainable development necessitates a holistic understanding of spatiotemporal variations in ecosystem carbon storage(ECS),particularly in ecologically sensitive areas with arid and semi-arid climate.In this study,we calculated the ECS in the Ningxia Section of Yellow River Basin,China from 1985 to 2020 using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(InVEST)model based on land use data.We further predicted the spatial distribution of ECS in 2050 under four land use scenarios:natural development scenario(NDS),ecological protection scenario(EPS),cultivated land protection scenario(CPS),and urban development scenario(UDS)using the patch-generating land use simulation(PLUS)model,and quantified the influences of natural and human factors on the spatial differentiation of ECS using the geographical detector(Geodetector).Results showed that the total ECS of the study area initially increased from 1985 until reaching a peak at 402.36×10^(6) t in 2010,followed by a decreasing trend to 2050.The spatial distribution of ECS was characterized by high values in the eastern and southern parts of the study area,and low values in the western and northern parts.Between 1985 and 2020,land use changes occurred mainly through the expansion of cultivated land,woodland,and construction land at the expense of unused land.The total ECS in 2050 under different land use scenarios(ranked as EPS>CPS>NDS>UDS)would be lower than that in 2020.Nighttime light was the largest contributor to the spatial differentiation of ECS,with soil type and annual mean temperature being the major natural driving factors.Findings of this study could provide guidance on the ecological construction and high-quality development in arid and semi-arid areas.展开更多
The metropolitan area is a crucial spatial element in promoting new urbanization in China.It possesses theoretical and empirical value in the determination of the evolutionary patterns and development trends necessary...The metropolitan area is a crucial spatial element in promoting new urbanization in China.It possesses theoretical and empirical value in the determination of the evolutionary patterns and development trends necessary for regional integration and high-quality development.This study focused on Nanjing Metropolitan Area,the first national metropolitan area in China,and established three development scenarios by combining ecological–economic spatial conflict(EESC)zones and national key ecological functional areas.These scenarios simulate the spatial distribution of future land use and land cover change(LUCC)using the development zone planning function of the patch generation land use simulation(PLUS)model.The results show that:(1)Between 2000 and 2020,the most prominent characteristics of land use change were largely the massive expansion of built-up land and the significant decline of farmland,while changes in the area of ecological land were less evident.(2)EESC areas experienced significant changes over the past 20 years,but the overall level of conflict was low.Ecological land was the main land use type in the lowest-conflict area,while built-up land was the main land use type in the highest-conflict area.(3)From 2030 to 2050,further expansion of built-up areas is expected,with continued decrease of farmland.The regulation of these land use changes can be achieved through different development zone plans.The economic development scenario had the largest built-up land area,while the ecological protection scenario had the largest farmland area.This study simulates the spatial pattern changes in the metropolitan area based on spatial conflict patterns and national main functional area planning process,providing a scientific reference for future spatial planning and management.展开更多
As the most economically developed metropolitan area in China’s Yangtze River Delta,the rapid changing land use patterns of Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou(Su-Xi-Chang) metropolitan area have profound impacts on the ecosystem ...As the most economically developed metropolitan area in China’s Yangtze River Delta,the rapid changing land use patterns of Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou(Su-Xi-Chang) metropolitan area have profound impacts on the ecosystem service value(ESV).Based on the patterns of land use change and the ESV change in Su-Xi-Chang metropolitan area from 2000 to 2020,we set up four scenarios:natural development scenario,urban development scenario,arable land protection scenario and ecological protection scenario,and simulated the impact of land use changes on the ESV in these scenarios.The results showed that:1) the area of built-up land in the Su-XiChang metropolitan area increased significantly from 2000 to 2020,and the area of other types of land decreased.Arable land underwent the highest transfer-out area,and was primarily converted into built-up land.The total ESV of Su-Xi-Chang metropolitan area increased initially then declined from 2000–2020,and the value of almost all individual ecosystem services decreased.2) Population density,GDP per area,night lighting intensity,and road network density can negatively impact the ESV.3) The total ESV loss under the natural development and urban development scenarios was high,and the expansion of the built-up land and the drastic shrinkage of the arable land contributed to the ESV decline under both scenarios.The total ESV under arable land protection and ecological protection scenarios increases,and therefore these scenarios are suitable for future land use optimization in Su-Xi-Chang.This study could provide a certain reference for land use planning and allocation,and offer guidance for the rational allocation of land resources.展开更多
城市用地空间扩张对生态环境的影响映射出人类社会活动和生态环境保护之间的交互作用,系统地研究城市空间无序蔓延所诱发的城市土地利用方式变化对城市生态环境的影响程度,对助推中国生态文明建设目标具有重要现实意义。为探究合肥市城...城市用地空间扩张对生态环境的影响映射出人类社会活动和生态环境保护之间的交互作用,系统地研究城市空间无序蔓延所诱发的城市土地利用方式变化对城市生态环境的影响程度,对助推中国生态文明建设目标具有重要现实意义。为探究合肥市城市扩张对生态安全格局的影响程度,综合运用生态遥感指数、最小累积阻力模型、电路理论和斑块生成土地利用模拟模型,构建合肥市生态安全格局,识别生态夹点和生态障碍点,再从模拟验证的基础上(总体精度为94.71%,Kappa系数为90.04%,Fom值为0.102),预测了2030—2040年的城市扩张,并根据预测结果探讨城市扩张对区域生态安全格局影响程度。研究发现:合肥市生态环境质量整体呈现南高中低的分布格局,识别出合肥市生态源地共计35处,源地间活跃生态廊道70条,非活跃廊道共17条,生态夹点290个,生态障碍点112个。2020—2040年合肥市城乡、工矿居民用地、林地、水域和未利用土地面积将不断增加,而耕地以及草地面积将持续减少。2020—2040年期间城镇建成区分别侵占了生态廊道、源地、夹点、障碍点面积为55.95、10.51、1.04、1.35 km 2。研究结果可为今后快速发展城市的生态环境治理和国土空间生态保护修复工作提供理论依据和技术参考。展开更多
基金supported by the Science Fund for the Gansu Provincial Natural Science Foundation Project(22JR5RA339).
文摘Land use/cover change(LUCC)constitutes the spatial and temporal patterns of ecological security,and the construction of ecological networks is an effective way to ensure ecological security.Exploring the spatial and temporal change characteristics of ecological network and analyzing the integrated relationship between LUCC and ecological security are crucial for ensuring regional ecological security.Gansu is one of the provinces with fragile ecological environment in China,and rapid changes in land use patterns in recent decades have threatened ecological security.Therefore,taking Gansu Province as the study area,this study simulated its land use pattern in 2050 using patch-generating land use simulation(PLUS)model based on the LUCC trend from 2000 to 2020 and integrated the LUCC into morphological spatial pattern analysis(MSPA)to identify ecological sources and extract the ecological corridors to construct ecological network using circuit theory.The results revealed that,according to the prediction results in 2050,the areas of cultivated land,forest land,grassland,water body,construction land,and unused land would be 63,447.52,39,510.80,148,115.18,4605.21,8368.89,and 161,752.40 km^(2),respectively.The number of ecological sources in Gansu Province would increase to 80,with a total area of 99,927.18 km^(2).The number of ecological corridors would increase to 191,with an estimated total length of 6120.66 km.Both ecological sources and ecological corridors showed a sparse distribution in the northwest and dense distribution in the southeast of the province at the spatial scale.The number of ecological pinch points would reach 312 and the total area would expect to increase to 842.84 km^(2),with the most pronounced increase in the Longdong region.Compared with 2020,the number and area of ecological barriers in 2050 would decrease significantly by 63 and 370.71 km^(2),respectively.In general,based on the prediction results,the connectivity of ecological network of Gansu Province would increase in 2050.To achieve the predicted ecological network in 2050,emphasis should be placed on the protection of cultivated land and ecological land,the establishment of ecological sources in desert areas,the reinforcement of the protection for existing ecological sources,and the construction of ecological corridors to enhance the stability of ecological network.This study provides valuable theoretical support and references for the future construction of ecological networks and regional land resource management decision-making.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(2022YFD1900503).
文摘Carbon storage serves as a key indicator of ecosystem services and plays a vital role in maintaining the global carbon balance.Land use and cover change(LUCC)is one of the primary drivers influencing carbon storage variations in terrestrial ecosystems.Therefore,evaluating the impacts of LUCC on carbon storage is crucial for achieving strategic goals such as the China’s dual carbon goals(including carbon peaking and carbon neutrality).This study focuses on the Aral Irrigation Area in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,China,to assess the impacts of LUCC on regional carbon storage and their spatiotemporal dynamics.A comprehensive LUCC database from 2000 to 2020 was developed using Landsat satellite imagery and the random forest classification algorithm.The integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs(InVEST)model was applied to quantify carbon storage and analyze its response to LUCC.Additionally,future LUCC patterns for 2030 were projected under multiple development scenarios using the patch-generating land use simulation(PLUS)model.These future LUCC scenarios were integrated with the InVEST model to simulate carbon storage trends under different land management pathways.Between 2000 and 2020,the dominant land use types in the study area were cropland(area proportion of 35.52%),unused land(34.80%),and orchard land(12.19%).The conversion of unused land and orchard land significantly expanded the area of cropland,which increased by 115,742.55 hm^(2).During this period,total carbon storage and carbon density increased by 7.87×10^(6) Mg C and 20.19 Mg C/hm^(2),respectively.The primary driver of this increase was the conversion of unused land into cropland,accounting for 49.28%of the total carbon storage gain.Carbon storage was notably lower along the northeastern and southeastern edges.By 2030,the projected carbon storage is expected to increase by 0.99×10^(6),1.55×10^(6),and 1.71×10^(6) Mg C under the natural development,cropland protection,and ecological conservation scenarios,respectively.In contrast,under the urban development scenario,carbon storage is projected to decline by 0.40×10^(6) Mg C.In line with China’s dual carbon goals,the ecological conservation scenario emerges as the most effective strategy for enhancing carbon storage.Accordingly,strict enforcement of the cropland red line is recommended.This study provides a valuable scientific foundation for regional ecosystem restoration and sustainable development in arid regions.
基金supported by the Innovation Projects for Overseas Returnees of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region-Study on Multi-Scenario Land Use Optimization and Carbon Storage in the Ningxia Section of Yellow River Basin(202303)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42067022,41761066)the Natural Science Foundation of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region,China(2022AAC03024)。
文摘Regional sustainable development necessitates a holistic understanding of spatiotemporal variations in ecosystem carbon storage(ECS),particularly in ecologically sensitive areas with arid and semi-arid climate.In this study,we calculated the ECS in the Ningxia Section of Yellow River Basin,China from 1985 to 2020 using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(InVEST)model based on land use data.We further predicted the spatial distribution of ECS in 2050 under four land use scenarios:natural development scenario(NDS),ecological protection scenario(EPS),cultivated land protection scenario(CPS),and urban development scenario(UDS)using the patch-generating land use simulation(PLUS)model,and quantified the influences of natural and human factors on the spatial differentiation of ECS using the geographical detector(Geodetector).Results showed that the total ECS of the study area initially increased from 1985 until reaching a peak at 402.36×10^(6) t in 2010,followed by a decreasing trend to 2050.The spatial distribution of ECS was characterized by high values in the eastern and southern parts of the study area,and low values in the western and northern parts.Between 1985 and 2020,land use changes occurred mainly through the expansion of cultivated land,woodland,and construction land at the expense of unused land.The total ECS in 2050 under different land use scenarios(ranked as EPS>CPS>NDS>UDS)would be lower than that in 2020.Nighttime light was the largest contributor to the spatial differentiation of ECS,with soil type and annual mean temperature being the major natural driving factors.Findings of this study could provide guidance on the ecological construction and high-quality development in arid and semi-arid areas.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.42371185National Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars,No.41901151。
文摘The metropolitan area is a crucial spatial element in promoting new urbanization in China.It possesses theoretical and empirical value in the determination of the evolutionary patterns and development trends necessary for regional integration and high-quality development.This study focused on Nanjing Metropolitan Area,the first national metropolitan area in China,and established three development scenarios by combining ecological–economic spatial conflict(EESC)zones and national key ecological functional areas.These scenarios simulate the spatial distribution of future land use and land cover change(LUCC)using the development zone planning function of the patch generation land use simulation(PLUS)model.The results show that:(1)Between 2000 and 2020,the most prominent characteristics of land use change were largely the massive expansion of built-up land and the significant decline of farmland,while changes in the area of ecological land were less evident.(2)EESC areas experienced significant changes over the past 20 years,but the overall level of conflict was low.Ecological land was the main land use type in the lowest-conflict area,while built-up land was the main land use type in the highest-conflict area.(3)From 2030 to 2050,further expansion of built-up areas is expected,with continued decrease of farmland.The regulation of these land use changes can be achieved through different development zone plans.The economic development scenario had the largest built-up land area,while the ecological protection scenario had the largest farmland area.This study simulates the spatial pattern changes in the metropolitan area based on spatial conflict patterns and national main functional area planning process,providing a scientific reference for future spatial planning and management.
基金Under the auspices of Humanities and Social Sciences Foundation of Soochow University(No.22XM2008)National Social Science Foundation of China(No.23BGL168)。
文摘As the most economically developed metropolitan area in China’s Yangtze River Delta,the rapid changing land use patterns of Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou(Su-Xi-Chang) metropolitan area have profound impacts on the ecosystem service value(ESV).Based on the patterns of land use change and the ESV change in Su-Xi-Chang metropolitan area from 2000 to 2020,we set up four scenarios:natural development scenario,urban development scenario,arable land protection scenario and ecological protection scenario,and simulated the impact of land use changes on the ESV in these scenarios.The results showed that:1) the area of built-up land in the Su-XiChang metropolitan area increased significantly from 2000 to 2020,and the area of other types of land decreased.Arable land underwent the highest transfer-out area,and was primarily converted into built-up land.The total ESV of Su-Xi-Chang metropolitan area increased initially then declined from 2000–2020,and the value of almost all individual ecosystem services decreased.2) Population density,GDP per area,night lighting intensity,and road network density can negatively impact the ESV.3) The total ESV loss under the natural development and urban development scenarios was high,and the expansion of the built-up land and the drastic shrinkage of the arable land contributed to the ESV decline under both scenarios.The total ESV under arable land protection and ecological protection scenarios increases,and therefore these scenarios are suitable for future land use optimization in Su-Xi-Chang.This study could provide a certain reference for land use planning and allocation,and offer guidance for the rational allocation of land resources.
文摘城市用地空间扩张对生态环境的影响映射出人类社会活动和生态环境保护之间的交互作用,系统地研究城市空间无序蔓延所诱发的城市土地利用方式变化对城市生态环境的影响程度,对助推中国生态文明建设目标具有重要现实意义。为探究合肥市城市扩张对生态安全格局的影响程度,综合运用生态遥感指数、最小累积阻力模型、电路理论和斑块生成土地利用模拟模型,构建合肥市生态安全格局,识别生态夹点和生态障碍点,再从模拟验证的基础上(总体精度为94.71%,Kappa系数为90.04%,Fom值为0.102),预测了2030—2040年的城市扩张,并根据预测结果探讨城市扩张对区域生态安全格局影响程度。研究发现:合肥市生态环境质量整体呈现南高中低的分布格局,识别出合肥市生态源地共计35处,源地间活跃生态廊道70条,非活跃廊道共17条,生态夹点290个,生态障碍点112个。2020—2040年合肥市城乡、工矿居民用地、林地、水域和未利用土地面积将不断增加,而耕地以及草地面积将持续减少。2020—2040年期间城镇建成区分别侵占了生态廊道、源地、夹点、障碍点面积为55.95、10.51、1.04、1.35 km 2。研究结果可为今后快速发展城市的生态环境治理和国土空间生态保护修复工作提供理论依据和技术参考。
