The increasing integration of wind power generation brings more uncertainty into the power system. Since the correlation may have a notable influence on the power system,the output powers of wind farms are generally c...The increasing integration of wind power generation brings more uncertainty into the power system. Since the correlation may have a notable influence on the power system,the output powers of wind farms are generally considered as correlated random variables in uncertainty analysis. In this paper, the C-vine pair copula theory is introduced to describe the complicated dependence of multidimensional wind power injection, and samples obeying this dependence structure are generated. Monte Carlo simulation is performed to analyze the small signal stability of a test system. The probabilistic stability under different correlation models and different operating conditions scenarios is investigated. The results indicate that the probabilistic small signal stability analysis adopting pair copula model is more accurate and stable than other dependence models under different conditions.展开更多
目前我国证券市场尚未成熟,风险对冲手段单一,因此构建一个期货对多资产进行套期保值策略对于投资组合的风险管理尤为重要.本文构建了基于线性规划的最小CVaR (Conditional Value at Risk)套期保值模型,同时运用R-藤Pair CopulaGARCH模...目前我国证券市场尚未成熟,风险对冲手段单一,因此构建一个期货对多资产进行套期保值策略对于投资组合的风险管理尤为重要.本文构建了基于线性规划的最小CVaR (Conditional Value at Risk)套期保值模型,同时运用R-藤Pair CopulaGARCH模型结合蒙特卡洛模拟生成投资组合中各资产收益率的情景和概率,将结果用于基于线性规划的最小CVaR套期保值模型,可确定投资组合的最优套期保值比例.针对沪深300指数和5支沪深300成分股的实证研究表明,相对改良后的正态假定模型,经本文模型套期保值后的投资组合在风险和收益上均有更好的表现.展开更多
为了对股票市场的非线性结构进行研究,通过Realized GARCH将高频数据的信息引入到模型之中,并结合Pair Copula分解法对股票指数进行分析,建立股票指数之间的结构关系。计算了AIC(Akaike information criterion)/BIC(Bayesian informatio...为了对股票市场的非线性结构进行研究,通过Realized GARCH将高频数据的信息引入到模型之中,并结合Pair Copula分解法对股票指数进行分析,建立股票指数之间的结构关系。计算了AIC(Akaike information criterion)/BIC(Bayesian information criterion)的值以确定最优Pair Copula函数,最终发现C-Vine的结构更加适合被用来描述股票市场间关系。展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(51307107,51477098,51877133)SRFDP(20130073120034)State Grid Corporation of China Science and Technology Project(Hybrid AC/DC Power Grid Planning and Optimization Study Under the Framework of GEI)。
文摘The increasing integration of wind power generation brings more uncertainty into the power system. Since the correlation may have a notable influence on the power system,the output powers of wind farms are generally considered as correlated random variables in uncertainty analysis. In this paper, the C-vine pair copula theory is introduced to describe the complicated dependence of multidimensional wind power injection, and samples obeying this dependence structure are generated. Monte Carlo simulation is performed to analyze the small signal stability of a test system. The probabilistic stability under different correlation models and different operating conditions scenarios is investigated. The results indicate that the probabilistic small signal stability analysis adopting pair copula model is more accurate and stable than other dependence models under different conditions.
文摘目前我国证券市场尚未成熟,风险对冲手段单一,因此构建一个期货对多资产进行套期保值策略对于投资组合的风险管理尤为重要.本文构建了基于线性规划的最小CVaR (Conditional Value at Risk)套期保值模型,同时运用R-藤Pair CopulaGARCH模型结合蒙特卡洛模拟生成投资组合中各资产收益率的情景和概率,将结果用于基于线性规划的最小CVaR套期保值模型,可确定投资组合的最优套期保值比例.针对沪深300指数和5支沪深300成分股的实证研究表明,相对改良后的正态假定模型,经本文模型套期保值后的投资组合在风险和收益上均有更好的表现.
文摘为了对股票市场的非线性结构进行研究,通过Realized GARCH将高频数据的信息引入到模型之中,并结合Pair Copula分解法对股票指数进行分析,建立股票指数之间的结构关系。计算了AIC(Akaike information criterion)/BIC(Bayesian information criterion)的值以确定最优Pair Copula函数,最终发现C-Vine的结构更加适合被用来描述股票市场间关系。
