1-year hourly wind speed data from two Burundian stations, namely Bujumbura and Muyinga, have been processed in this work to bring an efficient help for the planning and installation of wind energy conversion systems ...1-year hourly wind speed data from two Burundian stations, namely Bujumbura and Muyinga, have been processed in this work to bring an efficient help for the planning and installation of wind energy conversion systems (WECS) at those localities. Mean seasonal and diurnal variations of wind direction and wind shear exponent have been derived. Two-parameter Weibull probability density functions (PDFs) fitting the observed monthly and annual wind speed relative frequency distributions have been implemented. As shown through three complementary statistical tests, the fitting technique was very satisfactory. A wind resource analysis at 10 m above ground level (AGL) has led to a mean power density at Bujumbura which is almost thirteen fold higher than at Muyinga. The use of the empirical power law to extrapolate wind characteristics at heights from 150 to 350 m AGL has shown that energy potential of hilltops around Muyinga was only suitable for small, individual scale wind energy applications. At the opposite, wind energy potential of ridge-tops and hilltops around Bujumbura has been found suitable for medium and large scale electricity production. For that locality and at those heights, energy outputs and capacity factors (CF or C<sub>f</sub>) have been computed for ten selected wind turbines (WTs), together with costs of electricity (COE) using the present value of cost (PVC) method. Amongst those WTs, YDF-1500-87 and S95-2.1 MW have emerged as the best options for installation owing to their highest CF and lowest COE. Moreover, an analysis of those two quantities at monthly basis for YDF-1500-87 WT has led to its best performance in the dry season. Compared to the average present COE of household hydroelectricity consumption, results of this study have evidenced economical feasibility and benefit of WECS setting in selected Burundian sites in order to supplement traditional electricity sources.展开更多
The task of robust fault detection and diagnosis of stochastic distribution control(SDC)systems with uncertainties is to use the measured input and the system output PDFs to still obtain possible faults information of...The task of robust fault detection and diagnosis of stochastic distribution control(SDC)systems with uncertainties is to use the measured input and the system output PDFs to still obtain possible faults information of the system.Using the rational square-root B-spline model to represent the dynamics between the output PDF and the input,in this paper,a robust nonlinear adaptive observer-based fault diagnosis algorithm is presented to diagnose the fault in the dynamic part of such systems with model uncertainties.When certain conditions are satisfied,the weight vector of the rational square-root B-spline model proves to be bounded.Conver-gency analysis is performed for the error dynamic system raised from robust fault detection and fault diagnosis phase.Computer simulations are given to demon-strate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.展开更多
文摘间歇过程的优化控制依赖于过程精确的数学模型,数据驱动的建模方法是目前间歇过程模型研究中的热点问题。突破传统数据驱动建模方法中采用均方差(mean squared error,MSE)作为准则函数的思想,提出一种新颖的间歇过程数据驱动建模方法,引入了概率密度函数(probability density function,PDF)控制的概念,构造间歇过程模型误差控制系统,将模型的可调参数作为控制系统的输入,模型误差PDF的形状作为控制系统的输出,从而把开环模型参数辨识问题转化为模型误差PDF形状的闭环控制问题。通过可调参数控制模型误差PDF的空间分布状态,不仅能够保障模型精度,还可控制模型误差的空间分布状态,从而消除模型中的有色噪声。仿真实验表明,基于模型误差PDF形状的间歇过程数据驱动模型具有较好的建模精度、鲁棒性和泛化能力,为间歇过程的数据驱动建模提供了一条新途径。
文摘1-year hourly wind speed data from two Burundian stations, namely Bujumbura and Muyinga, have been processed in this work to bring an efficient help for the planning and installation of wind energy conversion systems (WECS) at those localities. Mean seasonal and diurnal variations of wind direction and wind shear exponent have been derived. Two-parameter Weibull probability density functions (PDFs) fitting the observed monthly and annual wind speed relative frequency distributions have been implemented. As shown through three complementary statistical tests, the fitting technique was very satisfactory. A wind resource analysis at 10 m above ground level (AGL) has led to a mean power density at Bujumbura which is almost thirteen fold higher than at Muyinga. The use of the empirical power law to extrapolate wind characteristics at heights from 150 to 350 m AGL has shown that energy potential of hilltops around Muyinga was only suitable for small, individual scale wind energy applications. At the opposite, wind energy potential of ridge-tops and hilltops around Bujumbura has been found suitable for medium and large scale electricity production. For that locality and at those heights, energy outputs and capacity factors (CF or C<sub>f</sub>) have been computed for ten selected wind turbines (WTs), together with costs of electricity (COE) using the present value of cost (PVC) method. Amongst those WTs, YDF-1500-87 and S95-2.1 MW have emerged as the best options for installation owing to their highest CF and lowest COE. Moreover, an analysis of those two quantities at monthly basis for YDF-1500-87 WT has led to its best performance in the dry season. Compared to the average present COE of household hydroelectricity consumption, results of this study have evidenced economical feasibility and benefit of WECS setting in selected Burundian sites in order to supplement traditional electricity sources.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.60534010)the Outstanding Overseas Chinese Scholars Fund of CAS(Grant No.2004-1-4)
文摘The task of robust fault detection and diagnosis of stochastic distribution control(SDC)systems with uncertainties is to use the measured input and the system output PDFs to still obtain possible faults information of the system.Using the rational square-root B-spline model to represent the dynamics between the output PDF and the input,in this paper,a robust nonlinear adaptive observer-based fault diagnosis algorithm is presented to diagnose the fault in the dynamic part of such systems with model uncertainties.When certain conditions are satisfied,the weight vector of the rational square-root B-spline model proves to be bounded.Conver-gency analysis is performed for the error dynamic system raised from robust fault detection and fault diagnosis phase.Computer simulations are given to demon-strate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.
