This paper proposed a new systematic approach-functional evidential reasoning model(FERM) for exploring hazardous chemical operational accidents under uncertainty. First, FERM was introduced to identify various causal...This paper proposed a new systematic approach-functional evidential reasoning model(FERM) for exploring hazardous chemical operational accidents under uncertainty. First, FERM was introduced to identify various causal factors and their performance changes in hazardous chemical operational accidents, along with determining the functional failure link relationships. Subsequently, FERM was employed to elucidate both qualitative and quantitative operational accident information within a unified framework, which could be regarded as the input of information fusion to obtain the fuzzy belief distribution of each cause factor. Finally, the derived risk values of the causal factors were ranked while constructing multi-level accident causation chains to unveil the weak links in system functionality and the primary roots of operational accidents. Using the specific case of the “1·15” major explosion and fire accident at Liaoning Panjin Haoye Chemical Co., Ltd., seven causal factors and their corresponding performance changes were identified. Additionally, five accident causation chains were uncovered based on the fuzzy joint distribution of the functional assessment level(FAL) and reliability distribution(RD),revealing an overall increase in risk along the accident evolution path. The research findings demonstrated that FERM enabled the effective characterization, rational quantification and accurate analysis of the inherent uncertainties in hazardous chemical operational accident risks from a systemic perspective.展开更多
Understanding the causation of accidents is essential to promote metro operation safety.In terms of 243 reported metro operation accident cases in China, a directed weighted network was constructed based on complex ne...Understanding the causation of accidents is essential to promote metro operation safety.In terms of 243 reported metro operation accident cases in China, a directed weighted network was constructed based on complex network theory, where nodes and directed edges denotes factors and event chains respectively. To reveal the key causal factors, the topological characteristics of metro operation accident network(MOAN) were analyzed from both global and local views. The results show that facility-type factors are more closely related to the occurrence of the accidents from the perspectives of average path length and cascading effects. Accident types like train delay and train suspension are the great risk recipients. Key causal factors with large out-degree, out-strength, betweenness centrality and cluster coefficient, such as communication and signal failure, vehicle failure and piling into the train should be noticed. The research framework proposed in the paper is not only applicable to China’s metro operation system, but also appropriate for other transportation system safety studies.展开更多
Bridges,tunnels,cuttings and high subgrade account for a relatively large proportion in China’s heavy-haul railway system,where 10000 t of unit trains and 20000 t of combined trains are in operation.When a train oper...Bridges,tunnels,cuttings and high subgrade account for a relatively large proportion in China’s heavy-haul railway system,where 10000 t of unit trains and 20000 t of combined trains are in operation.When a train operation accident occurs,it can easily cause vehicle intrusions,slant-span lines,tipping and stacking.Based on the viewpoint of system engineering,rescue methods such as hoisting,lifting,pulling and overturning are integrated,according to the characteristics of heavy-haul transport and the construction practice of train accident rescue system.A scheme of technical research and equipment configuration relating to heavy-haul railway rescue in China is put forward based on the situation—embankment,bridge,tunnel(including cuttings),ramp and curve rescue,and so on—and three-dimensional finite-element modelling and calculation checks on the key components are carried out.展开更多
基金supported by the National Key Research&Development Program of China(2021YFB3301100)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(52004014)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(ZY2406).
文摘This paper proposed a new systematic approach-functional evidential reasoning model(FERM) for exploring hazardous chemical operational accidents under uncertainty. First, FERM was introduced to identify various causal factors and their performance changes in hazardous chemical operational accidents, along with determining the functional failure link relationships. Subsequently, FERM was employed to elucidate both qualitative and quantitative operational accident information within a unified framework, which could be regarded as the input of information fusion to obtain the fuzzy belief distribution of each cause factor. Finally, the derived risk values of the causal factors were ranked while constructing multi-level accident causation chains to unveil the weak links in system functionality and the primary roots of operational accidents. Using the specific case of the “1·15” major explosion and fire accident at Liaoning Panjin Haoye Chemical Co., Ltd., seven causal factors and their corresponding performance changes were identified. Additionally, five accident causation chains were uncovered based on the fuzzy joint distribution of the functional assessment level(FAL) and reliability distribution(RD),revealing an overall increase in risk along the accident evolution path. The research findings demonstrated that FERM enabled the effective characterization, rational quantification and accurate analysis of the inherent uncertainties in hazardous chemical operational accident risks from a systemic perspective.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)(71801139)Qingdao Social Science Planning Project(QDSKL1801157)Key Research and Development Plan(Soft Science Project)of Shandong Province(2019RKB01118)。
文摘Understanding the causation of accidents is essential to promote metro operation safety.In terms of 243 reported metro operation accident cases in China, a directed weighted network was constructed based on complex network theory, where nodes and directed edges denotes factors and event chains respectively. To reveal the key causal factors, the topological characteristics of metro operation accident network(MOAN) were analyzed from both global and local views. The results show that facility-type factors are more closely related to the occurrence of the accidents from the perspectives of average path length and cascading effects. Accident types like train delay and train suspension are the great risk recipients. Key causal factors with large out-degree, out-strength, betweenness centrality and cluster coefficient, such as communication and signal failure, vehicle failure and piling into the train should be noticed. The research framework proposed in the paper is not only applicable to China’s metro operation system, but also appropriate for other transportation system safety studies.
文摘Bridges,tunnels,cuttings and high subgrade account for a relatively large proportion in China’s heavy-haul railway system,where 10000 t of unit trains and 20000 t of combined trains are in operation.When a train operation accident occurs,it can easily cause vehicle intrusions,slant-span lines,tipping and stacking.Based on the viewpoint of system engineering,rescue methods such as hoisting,lifting,pulling and overturning are integrated,according to the characteristics of heavy-haul transport and the construction practice of train accident rescue system.A scheme of technical research and equipment configuration relating to heavy-haul railway rescue in China is put forward based on the situation—embankment,bridge,tunnel(including cuttings),ramp and curve rescue,and so on—and three-dimensional finite-element modelling and calculation checks on the key components are carried out.
