The global sustained low oil prices have a significant impact on China's oil and gas industry system and the national energy security.This paper aims to find solutions in order to guarantee the smooth development ...The global sustained low oil prices have a significant impact on China's oil and gas industry system and the national energy security.This paper aims to find solutions in order to guarantee the smooth development of China's oil and gas industry system and its survival in such a severe environment.First,the origins of sustained low oil prices were analyzed.Then,based on those published data from IEA,government and some other authorities,this study focused on the development status,energy policies and the future developing trend of those main oil&gas producing countries.Investigations show that the low-price running is primarily contributed to the so-called oil and gas policies in the USA.It is predicted that national petroleum consumption will reach up to 6.0×10^(8) t(oil)&3300×10^(8) m^(3)(gas)in 2020 and 6.8×10^(8) t(oil)&5200×10^(8) m^(3)(gas)in 2030.For reducing the dependence on foreign oil and gas,the investment in the upstream of oil and gas industry should be maintained and scientific research should be intensified to ensure the smooth operation of the oil and gas production system.Considering China's national energy security strategy,the following suggestions were proposed herein.First,ensure that in China the yearly oil output reaches 2×10^(8) t,while natural gas yield will be expected to be up to 2700×10^(8) m^(3)in 2030,both of which should become the“bottom line”in the long term.Second,focus on the planning of upstream business with insistence on risk exploration investment,scientific and technological innovation and pilot area construction especially for low-permeability tight oil&gas,shale oil&gas reservoir development techniques.Third,encourage the in-depth reform and further growth especially in the three major state-owned oil&gas companies under adverse situations,and create more companies competent to offer overseas technical services by taking the opportunity of the“One Belt and One Road”policy.Finally,promote the new energy business and find solutions to turning those oil companies to integrated energy companies.展开更多
On April 2,the United States announced the implementation of the so-called“reciprocal tariffs”plan.Combined with factors such as the OPEC+plan to increase production starting in May,this led to a continuous plunge i...On April 2,the United States announced the implementation of the so-called“reciprocal tariffs”plan.Combined with factors such as the OPEC+plan to increase production starting in May,this led to a continuous plunge in the benchmark oil prices of WTI and Brent over the subsequent three trading days.Despite the significant impact of the United States’“reciprocal tariffs”plan on the global political and economic landscape,the fundamental dynamics of supply and demand remain the decisive factors in the fluctuations of international oil prices.The current trend of international oil price fluctuations is still primarily driven by the supply side,with both supply and demand factors playing a role.Investment,costs,and resource constraints on the supply side do not allow for a significant increase in crude oil production,while“consumption rigidity”on the demand side does not permit a significant decrease in crude oil demand.As a result,International oil prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term,but a significant decline is unlikely to be sustained in the near to medium term.In this context,Chinese oil companies should focus on four key areas to ensure the security of national oil and gas supplies:first,promoting high-quality increases in domestic oil and gas reserves and production;second,steadily strengthening the acquisition of overseas oil and gas resources;third,continuously driving innovation in oil and gas exploration and development technologies;fourth,enhancing the capacity for domestic oil and gas reserves in an orderly manner.展开更多
From the perspective of long-term and short-term, the methods of TY causality test, generalized impulse response function, variance decomposition were used to investigate the impacts of international oil prices and ma...From the perspective of long-term and short-term, the methods of TY causality test, generalized impulse response function, variance decomposition were used to investigate the impacts of international oil prices and macroeconomic variables on Chinese gold, silver and platinum prices, but also the feedback effects of Chinese precious metal prices under this impact. The results show that international oil prices play an important role in precious metal price variation both in long-term and short-term, and exchange rate only has an effect in short-term, while interest rate is ineffective in predicting precious metal prices. In addition, precious metal prices have some feedback effects on international oil prices and interest rate in short-term.展开更多
With the frequent fluctuations of international crude oil prices and China＇s increasing dependence on foreign oil in recent years, the volatility of international oil prices has significantly influenced China domesti...With the frequent fluctuations of international crude oil prices and China＇s increasing dependence on foreign oil in recent years, the volatility of international oil prices has significantly influenced China domestic refined oil price. This paper aims to investigate the transmission and feedback mechanism between international crude oil prices and China＇s refined oil prices for the time span from January 2011 to November 2015 by using the Granger causality test, vector autoregression model, impulse response function and variance decomposition methods. It is demonstrated that variation of international crude oil prices can cause China domestic refined oil price to change with a weak feedback effect. Moreover, international crude oil prices and China domestic refined oil prices are affected by their lag terms in positive and negative directions in different degrees. Besides, an international crude oil price shock has a signif- icant positive impact on domestic refined oil prices while the impulse response of the international crude oil price variable to the domestic refined oil price shock is negatively insignificant. Furthermore, international crude oil prices and domestic refined oil prices have strong historical inheri- tance. According to the variance decomposition analysis, the international crude oil price is significantly affected by its own disturbance influence, and a domestic refined oil price shock has a slight impact on international crude oil price changes. The domestic refined oil price variance is mainly caused by international crude oil price disturbance, while the domestic refined oil price is slightly affected by its own disturbance. Generally, domestic refined oil prices do not immediately respond to an international crude oil price change, that is, there is a time lag.展开更多
By analyzing the distribution of global oil and gas fields and the reasons why some oil and gas fields are not in production, the distribution characteristics of oil and gas remaining recoverable reserves and their ye...By analyzing the distribution of global oil and gas fields and the reasons why some oil and gas fields are not in production, the distribution characteristics of oil and gas remaining recoverable reserves and their year-on-year changes, the distribution characteristics of oil and gas production and their year-on-year changes, and the development potential of oil and gas to be tapped in 2021, this paper sorts out systematically the current status and characteristics of global oil and gas development, summaries the major trends of global oil and gas development, puts forward enlightenment for international oil and gas cooperation. In 2021, oil and gas fields were widely distributed, the number of non-producing oil and gas fields was large;the whole oil and gas remaining recoverable reserves declined slightly, unconventional oil and gas remaining recoverable reserves dropped significantly;the overall oil and gas production continuously increased, the outputs of key resource-host countries kept year-on-year growth;undeveloped oilfields had abundant reserves and great development potential. Combined with global oil and gas geopolitics, oil and gas industry development trends, oil and gas investment intensity, and the tracking and judgment of hotspot fields, the major trends of global oil and gas development in 2021 are summarized. On this basis, the four aspects of enlightenment and suggestions for international oil and gas cooperation and development strategies are put forward: attach great importance to the obligation of marine abandonment to ensure high-quality and long-term benefit development of offshore oil and gas;adhere to the principle of not going to dangerous and chaotic places, strengthen the concentration of oil and gas assets, and establish multi stable supply bases;based on the multi-scenario demand of natural gas, realize the transformation from integrated collaboration to full oil and gas industry chain development;increase the acquisition of high-quality large-scale assets, and pay attention to the continuous optimization of the shareholding ratio of projects at different stages.展开更多
The frequent occurrence of geopolitical crises in the post-financial crisis era is driving the rethinking behind whether the global crude oil market is still a highly connected"great pool".Using the spillove...The frequent occurrence of geopolitical crises in the post-financial crisis era is driving the rethinking behind whether the global crude oil market is still a highly connected"great pool".Using the spillover network model suggested by Baruník and Krehlík(2018),and the daily data of 31 global crude oil markets from 2009 to 2019,this study examines the return and volatility spillover effects and their timevarying behavior in six crude oil market segments at different timescales.The findings indicate that heterogeneity exists in the co-movements between global crude oil markets in the post-financial crisis era.In the medium term,both return and volatility spillover effects are not significant,which makes the diversified portfolio strategy useful.Prices in the Europe and Central Asian regions take the lead in return spillovers.In contrast,Asia-Pacific regional prices contribute the most in terms of volatility spillovers.Long-term volatility spillovers increase sharply when confronted with oil-related events in the postfinancial crisis era.Therefore,policymakers should take effective measures to prevent any large-scale risk transmission in the long run.展开更多
Compared with retail prices of state-owned companies used in almost all existing studies,China’s refined oil wholesale prices of private enterprises and local refineries are more affected by the market and better ref...Compared with retail prices of state-owned companies used in almost all existing studies,China’s refined oil wholesale prices of private enterprises and local refineries are more affected by the market and better reflect the real supply-demand situation.For the first time,this paper applies own-monitored dailyfrequency wholesale prices of China’s private enterprises and local refineries during 2013-2020 to derive spillover effects of international crude oil prices on China’s refined oil prices through the VAR-BEKKGARCH(vector autoregression-Baba,Engle,Kraft,and Kroner-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity)model,and then tries to forecast wholesale prices through the PCA-BP(principal component analysis-back propagation)neural network model.Results show that international crude oil prices have significant mean spillover and volatility spillover effects on China’s refined oil wholesale prices.Changes in crude oil prices are the Granger cause of changes in refined oil wholesale prices.With the improvement of China’s oil-pricing mechanism in 2016,the volatility spillover from the international crude oil market to China’s refined oil market gradually increases,and the BRENT price variation has an increasing impact on the refined oil wholesale price variation.The PCA-BP model could serve as a candidate tool for forecasting China’s refined oil wholesale prices.展开更多
Background:The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of the oil price and its volatility on the stock market of Pakistan before and after the 2007 financial crisis period.Methods:The analyses are carried out ...Background:The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of the oil price and its volatility on the stock market of Pakistan before and after the 2007 financial crisis period.Methods:The analyses are carried out on daily data for the period from July 31,2000 to July 31,2014.This study uses several econometric techniques for the analyses,namely,the Johansen-Juselius cointegration test,generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity(GARCH)model,exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity(EGARCH)model,variance decomposition method,and impulse response function.Results:The results of the cointegration method indicate a significant long-run association between stock market and oil prices in the pre-crisis period.The EGARCH model shows that oil price returns have a significant effect on stock market returns in both sub-periods,while the result for the GARCH model is significant only in the postcrisis period.We find a significant effect of oil price volatility on the stock market in both sub-periods from the GARCH model.Furthermore,the EGARCH model shows an asymmetric effect of oil price volatility on the stock market in the pre-crisis period.Variance decomposition shows that stock market variations are mostly explained by selfinnovation.Moreover,the impulse response function results show that oil price shocks affected the stock market adversely in the pre-crisis period but positively in the postcrisis period.Conclusions:This study suggests that economic policymakers and investors should consider the oil price as an important factor affecting stock market returns.展开更多
The purpose of this study is to contribute to the literature by studying the effects of sudden changes both on crude oil import price and domestic gasoline price on inflation for Turkey, an emerging country. Since an ...The purpose of this study is to contribute to the literature by studying the effects of sudden changes both on crude oil import price and domestic gasoline price on inflation for Turkey, an emerging country. Since an inflation targeting regime is being carried out by the Central Bank of Turkey, determination of such effects is becoming more important. Therefore empirical evidence in this paper will serve as guidance for those countries, which have an in- flation targeting regime. Analyses have been done in the period of October 2005-December 2012 by Markovswitching vector autoregressive （MS-VAR） models which are successful in capturing the nonlinear properties of variables. Using MS-VAR analysis, it is found that there are 2 regimes in the analysis period. Furthermore, regime changes can be dated and the turning points of economic cycles can be determined. In addition, it is found that the effect of the changes in crude oil and domestic gasoline prices on consumer prices and core inflation is not the same under different regimes. Moreover, the sudden increase in gasoline price is more important for consumer price infla- tion than crude oil price shocks. Another finding is the presence of a pass-through effect from oil price and ga- soline price to core inflation.展开更多
It is of real and direct significance for China to cope with oil price fluctuations and ensure oil security. This paper aims to quantitatively analyze the specific contribution ratios of the complex factors influencin...It is of real and direct significance for China to cope with oil price fluctuations and ensure oil security. This paper aims to quantitatively analyze the specific contribution ratios of the complex factors influencing international crude oil prices and to establish crude oil price models to forecast long-term international crude oil prices. Six explanatory influential variables, namely Dow Jones Indexes, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development oil stocks, US rotary rig count, US dollar index, total open interest, which is the total number of outstanding contracts that are held by market participants at the end of each day, and geopolitical instability are specified, and the samples, from January 1990 to August 2017, are divided into six sub-periods. Moreover, the co-integration relationship among variables shows that the contribution ratios of all the variables influencing Brent crude oil prices are in accordance with the corresponding qualitative analysis. Furthermore, from September 2017 to December 2022 outside of the sample, the Vector Autoregressive forecasts show that annually averaged Brent crude oil prices for 2017-2022 would be $53.0, $61.3, $74.4, $90.0, $105.5, and $120.7 per barrel, respectively. The Vector Error Correction forecasts show that annual average Brent crude oil prices for 2017-2022 would be $53.0, $56.5, $58.5, $60.7, $63.0 and $65.4 per barrel, respectively.展开更多
“Belt and Road” is the important origin of oil import in China. Based on social network analysis and stochastic frontier gravity model, this paper studied the characteristic evolution and influence factor of oil imp...“Belt and Road” is the important origin of oil import in China. Based on social network analysis and stochastic frontier gravity model, this paper studied the characteristic evolution and influence factor of oil import network between China and “Belt and Road” countries. Then by constructing a stochastic frontier gravity model including the crude oil future price and oil importing price, it found that the international crude oil future price, the oil importing price, the political situation, the trade agreements have the effects on the China's oil import from “Belt and Road” region. It provided suggestions for improving the spatial pattern of China's petroleum trade.展开更多
Background:Given the shale oil glut that culminated in the most recent and continuing oil price drop from June 2014 and the global financial crisis of 2008 that triggered a cyclical downturn in oil prices and stock ma...Background:Given the shale oil glut that culminated in the most recent and continuing oil price drop from June 2014 and the global financial crisis of 2008 that triggered a cyclical downturn in oil prices and stock market activity,this study investigates the impact of Brent oil price shocks on oil related stocks in Nigeria.Methods:This study uses a vector autoregressive(VAR)model with the impulse response function and the forecast variance decomposition error.Findings:The empirical evidence reveals that oil price shocks have a negative impact on Nigerian oil and gas company stocks.In theory,this situation should apply to oil importing countries and is therefore uncharacteristic of an oil exporting country like Nigeria.Conclusions:The findings suggest that oil companies operating in Nigeria should diversify their investments to protect their business from single-sector market forces,and can also embrace the advantages of outsourcing some of their operations to specialist providers to increase flexibility and reduce operating costs.Finally,for vertically integrated oil and gas companies,oil price hedging and energy risk management will be beneficial because it will mean that these companies will take a position in the crude oil futures market.This will allow for better cash flow management and flexibility.Originality/value:This study extends the existing literature in two distinct ways.First,it provides,to the best of our knowledge,the first examination of the impact of oil price shocks on stock market activities with a focus on the market returns of oil and gas companies listed in the Nigerian Stock Exchange.Second,this study uses daily data because high frequency data contain more information than lower frequency data does,and lower frequency data average out too much important information.展开更多
This study analyzes oil price exposure of the oil–gas sector stock returns for the fragile five countries based on a multi-factor asset pricing model using daily data from 29 May 1996 to 27 January 2020.The endogenou...This study analyzes oil price exposure of the oil–gas sector stock returns for the fragile five countries based on a multi-factor asset pricing model using daily data from 29 May 1996 to 27 January 2020.The endogenous structural break test suggests the presence of serious parameter instabilities due to fluctuations in the oil and stock markets over the period under study.Moreover,the time-varying estimates indicate that the oil–gas sectors of these countries are riskier than the overall stock market.The results further suggest that,except for Indonesia,oil prices have a positive impact on the sectoral returns of all markets,whereas the impact of the exchange rates on the oil–gas sector returns varies across time and countries.展开更多
Deepwater oil and gas projects embody high risks from geology and engineering aspects, which exert substantial influence on project valuation. But the uncer- tainties may be converted to additional value to the projec...Deepwater oil and gas projects embody high risks from geology and engineering aspects, which exert substantial influence on project valuation. But the uncer- tainties may be converted to additional value to the projects in the case of flexible management. Given the flexibility of project management, this paper extends the classical real options model to a multi-factor model which contains oil price, geology, and engineering uncertainties. It then gives an application example of the new model to evaluate deepwater oil and gas projects with a numerical analytical method. Compared with other methods and models, this multi-factor real options model contains more project information. It reflects the potential value deriving not only from oil price variation but also from geology and engi- neering uncertainties, which provides more accurate and reliable valuation information for decision makers.展开更多
This paper proposes a Markov-switching copula model to examine the presence of regime change in the time-varying dependence structure between oil price changes and stock market returns in six GCC countries. The margin...This paper proposes a Markov-switching copula model to examine the presence of regime change in the time-varying dependence structure between oil price changes and stock market returns in six GCC countries. The marginal distributions are assumed to follow a long-memory model while the copula parameters are supposed to evolve according to the Markov-switching process. Furthermore, we estimate the Value-at-Risk (VaR) based on the proposed approach. The empirical results provide evidence of three regime changes, representing precrisis, financial crisis and post-crisis, in the dependence structure between energy and GCC stock markets. In particular, in the pre- and post-crisis regimes, there is no dependence, while in the crisis regime, there is significant tail dependence. For OPEC countries, we find lower tail dependence whereas in non-OPEC countries, we see upper tail dependence. VaR experiments show that the Markov-switching time- varying copula model performs better than the time-varying copula model.展开更多
Time-series-based forecasting is essential to determine how past events affect future events. This paper compares the performance accuracy of different time-series models for oil prices. Three types of univariate mode...Time-series-based forecasting is essential to determine how past events affect future events. This paper compares the performance accuracy of different time-series models for oil prices. Three types of univariate models are discussed: the exponential smoothing (ES), Holt-Winters (HW) and autoregressive intergrade moving average (ARIMA) models. To determine the best model, six different strategies were applied as selection criteria to quantify these models’ prediction accuracies. This comparison should help policy makers and industry marketing strategists select the best forecasting method in oil market. The three models were compared by applying them to the time series of regular oil prices for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude. The comparison indicated that the HW model performed better than the ES model for a prediction with a confidence interval of 95%. However, the ARIMA (2, 1, 2) model yielded the best results, leading us to conclude that this sophisticated and robust model outperformed other simple yet flexible models in oil market.展开更多
Natural gas is of great significance to ensuring China's energy security and achieving“carbon neutrality”by 2060.However,the lack of power to decide LNG import pricing and the high resource cost bring challenges...Natural gas is of great significance to ensuring China's energy security and achieving“carbon neutrality”by 2060.However,the lack of power to decide LNG import pricing and the high resource cost bring challenges to the stable supply of natural gas in China.In this regard,after analyzing the historical evolution laws of global LNG pricing,this paper systematically summarizes the pricing trends of newly signed contracts in 2020,and comparatively analyzes China's long-term LNG import pricing modes and its problems.And the following research results were obtained.First,the global LNG pricing mechanism is more diversified,regional characteristics and“Asian premium”problems are obvious,and different pricing mechanisms complement each other.Second,the newly signed long-term LNG agreement is linked with oil prices to play a dominant role again,and the oil-linked slope declines continuously and presents a dynamic mixed S-curve.Third,China's long-term LNG agreement is linked with oil prices at a high proportion,so there are no market conditions of gas–gas competition and the price review period is long.Finally,several suggestions were proposed for China's LNG import pricing.Firstly,stick to the principles of“short-term flexibility”and“long-term stability”,and make use of multiple modes comprehensively,e.g.gas–gas competition and Brent price linked,instead of completely decoupling oil prices.Secondly,referring to global newly signed contracts and Asian reviewed contracts,adhere to the principle of market parity,improve the price review terms and shorten the review period.Thirdly,the government shall support the construction of natural gas trading centers and futures markets and form the internationally recognized regional benchmark price as soon as possible.Fourthly,make a plan in advance,establish a risk hedging mechanism and control the overall cost of imported LNG resources.展开更多
A forecasting model of the monthly crude oil price is investigated using the data between 1988 and 2009 from U. S. Energy Information Administration. First generalized auto-regressive condi- tional beteroskedasticity ...A forecasting model of the monthly crude oil price is investigated using the data between 1988 and 2009 from U. S. Energy Information Administration. First generalized auto-regressive condi- tional beteroskedasticity （GARCH） is applied to a state space model, a hybrid model （SS-GARCH） is proposed. Afterwards by computing a special likelihood function with two weak assumptions, model parameters are estimated by means of a faster algorithm. Based on the SS-GARCH model with the identified parameters, oil prices of next three months are forecasted by applying a Kalman filter. Through comparing the results between the SS-GARCH model and an econometric structure model, the SS-GARCH method is shown that it improves the forecasting accuracy by decreasing the index of mean absolute error （ RMSE ） from 7. 09 to 2.99, and also decreasing the index of MAE from 3. 83 to 1.69. The results indicate that the SS-GARCH model can play a useful role in forecasting short-term crude oil prices.展开更多
Because the U.S.is a major player in the international oil market,it is interesting to study whether aggregate and state-level economic conditions can predict the subse-quent realized volatility of oil price returns.T...Because the U.S.is a major player in the international oil market,it is interesting to study whether aggregate and state-level economic conditions can predict the subse-quent realized volatility of oil price returns.To address this research question,we frame our analysis in terms of variants of the popular heterogeneous autoregressive realized volatility(HAR-RV)model.To estimate the models,we use quantile-regression and quantile machine learning(Lasso)estimators.Our estimation results highlights the dif-ferential effects of economic conditions on the quantiles of the conditional distribution of realized volatility.Using weekly data for the period April 1987 to December 2021,we document evidence of predictability at a biweekly and monthly horizon.展开更多
The oil industries are an important part of a country’s economy.The crude oil’s price is influenced by a wide range of variables.Therefore,how accurately can countries predict its behavior and what predictors to emp...The oil industries are an important part of a country’s economy.The crude oil’s price is influenced by a wide range of variables.Therefore,how accurately can countries predict its behavior and what predictors to employ are two main questions.In this view,we propose utilizing deep learning and ensemble learning techniques to boost crude oil’s price forecasting performance.The suggested method is based on a deep learning snapshot ensemble method of the Transformer model.To examine the superiority of the proposed model,this paper compares the proposed deep learning ensemble model against different machine learning and statistical models for daily Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries(OPEC)oil price forecasting.Experimental results demonstrated the outperformance of the proposed method over statistical and machine learning methods.More precisely,the proposed snapshot ensemble of Transformer method achieved relative improvement in the forecasting performance compared to autoregressive integrated moving average ARIMA(1,1,1),ARIMA(0,1,1),autoregressive moving average(ARMA)(0,1),vector autoregression(VAR),random walk(RW),support vector machine(SVM),and random forests(RF)models by 99.94%,99.62%,99.87%,99.65%,7.55%,98.38%,and 99.35%,respectively,according to mean square error metric.展开更多
基金Project supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(973 Program)“Basic Research on Efficient Development of Marine Shale Gas in Southern China”(Grant No.2013CB228000)the National Major Science and Technology Program during the“12th Five-Year Plan”“Key Techniques for Shale Gas Exploration and Development”(Grant No.2011ZX05018).
文摘The global sustained low oil prices have a significant impact on China's oil and gas industry system and the national energy security.This paper aims to find solutions in order to guarantee the smooth development of China's oil and gas industry system and its survival in such a severe environment.First,the origins of sustained low oil prices were analyzed.Then,based on those published data from IEA,government and some other authorities,this study focused on the development status,energy policies and the future developing trend of those main oil&gas producing countries.Investigations show that the low-price running is primarily contributed to the so-called oil and gas policies in the USA.It is predicted that national petroleum consumption will reach up to 6.0×10^(8) t(oil)&3300×10^(8) m^(3)(gas)in 2020 and 6.8×10^(8) t(oil)&5200×10^(8) m^(3)(gas)in 2030.For reducing the dependence on foreign oil and gas,the investment in the upstream of oil and gas industry should be maintained and scientific research should be intensified to ensure the smooth operation of the oil and gas production system.Considering China's national energy security strategy,the following suggestions were proposed herein.First,ensure that in China the yearly oil output reaches 2×10^(8) t,while natural gas yield will be expected to be up to 2700×10^(8) m^(3)in 2030,both of which should become the“bottom line”in the long term.Second,focus on the planning of upstream business with insistence on risk exploration investment,scientific and technological innovation and pilot area construction especially for low-permeability tight oil&gas,shale oil&gas reservoir development techniques.Third,encourage the in-depth reform and further growth especially in the three major state-owned oil&gas companies under adverse situations,and create more companies competent to offer overseas technical services by taking the opportunity of the“One Belt and One Road”policy.Finally,promote the new energy business and find solutions to turning those oil companies to integrated energy companies.
文摘On April 2,the United States announced the implementation of the so-called“reciprocal tariffs”plan.Combined with factors such as the OPEC+plan to increase production starting in May,this led to a continuous plunge in the benchmark oil prices of WTI and Brent over the subsequent three trading days.Despite the significant impact of the United States’“reciprocal tariffs”plan on the global political and economic landscape,the fundamental dynamics of supply and demand remain the decisive factors in the fluctuations of international oil prices.The current trend of international oil price fluctuations is still primarily driven by the supply side,with both supply and demand factors playing a role.Investment,costs,and resource constraints on the supply side do not allow for a significant increase in crude oil production,while“consumption rigidity”on the demand side does not permit a significant decrease in crude oil demand.As a result,International oil prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term,but a significant decline is unlikely to be sustained in the near to medium term.In this context,Chinese oil companies should focus on four key areas to ensure the security of national oil and gas supplies:first,promoting high-quality increases in domestic oil and gas reserves and production;second,steadily strengthening the acquisition of overseas oil and gas resources;third,continuously driving innovation in oil and gas exploration and development technologies;fourth,enhancing the capacity for domestic oil and gas reserves in an orderly manner.
基金Project(13&ZD169)supported by the Major Program of the National Social Science Foundation,ChinaProject(13YJAZH149)supported by Research Project in Humanities and Social Sciences Conducted by the Ministry of Education,China+2 种基金Project(2011ZK2043)supported by the Key Program of the Soft Science Research Project of Hunan Province,ChinaProject(2015JJ2182)supported by Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province of ChinaProject(2009JYJR035)supported by Emergency Project "The Study of International Financial Crisis" of Ministry of Education of China
文摘From the perspective of long-term and short-term, the methods of TY causality test, generalized impulse response function, variance decomposition were used to investigate the impacts of international oil prices and macroeconomic variables on Chinese gold, silver and platinum prices, but also the feedback effects of Chinese precious metal prices under this impact. The results show that international oil prices play an important role in precious metal price variation both in long-term and short-term, and exchange rate only has an effect in short-term, while interest rate is ineffective in predicting precious metal prices. In addition, precious metal prices have some feedback effects on international oil prices and interest rate in short-term.
基金support from the Key Project of National Social Science Foundation of China (NO. 13&ZD159)
文摘With the frequent fluctuations of international crude oil prices and China＇s increasing dependence on foreign oil in recent years, the volatility of international oil prices has significantly influenced China domestic refined oil price. This paper aims to investigate the transmission and feedback mechanism between international crude oil prices and China＇s refined oil prices for the time span from January 2011 to November 2015 by using the Granger causality test, vector autoregression model, impulse response function and variance decomposition methods. It is demonstrated that variation of international crude oil prices can cause China domestic refined oil price to change with a weak feedback effect. Moreover, international crude oil prices and China domestic refined oil prices are affected by their lag terms in positive and negative directions in different degrees. Besides, an international crude oil price shock has a signif- icant positive impact on domestic refined oil prices while the impulse response of the international crude oil price variable to the domestic refined oil price shock is negatively insignificant. Furthermore, international crude oil prices and domestic refined oil prices have strong historical inheri- tance. According to the variance decomposition analysis, the international crude oil price is significantly affected by its own disturbance influence, and a domestic refined oil price shock has a slight impact on international crude oil price changes. The domestic refined oil price variance is mainly caused by international crude oil price disturbance, while the domestic refined oil price is slightly affected by its own disturbance. Generally, domestic refined oil prices do not immediately respond to an international crude oil price change, that is, there is a time lag.
基金Scientific Research and Technology Development Project(2021DJ3205)。
文摘By analyzing the distribution of global oil and gas fields and the reasons why some oil and gas fields are not in production, the distribution characteristics of oil and gas remaining recoverable reserves and their year-on-year changes, the distribution characteristics of oil and gas production and their year-on-year changes, and the development potential of oil and gas to be tapped in 2021, this paper sorts out systematically the current status and characteristics of global oil and gas development, summaries the major trends of global oil and gas development, puts forward enlightenment for international oil and gas cooperation. In 2021, oil and gas fields were widely distributed, the number of non-producing oil and gas fields was large;the whole oil and gas remaining recoverable reserves declined slightly, unconventional oil and gas remaining recoverable reserves dropped significantly;the overall oil and gas production continuously increased, the outputs of key resource-host countries kept year-on-year growth;undeveloped oilfields had abundant reserves and great development potential. Combined with global oil and gas geopolitics, oil and gas industry development trends, oil and gas investment intensity, and the tracking and judgment of hotspot fields, the major trends of global oil and gas development in 2021 are summarized. On this basis, the four aspects of enlightenment and suggestions for international oil and gas cooperation and development strategies are put forward: attach great importance to the obligation of marine abandonment to ensure high-quality and long-term benefit development of offshore oil and gas;adhere to the principle of not going to dangerous and chaotic places, strengthen the concentration of oil and gas assets, and establish multi stable supply bases;based on the multi-scenario demand of natural gas, realize the transformation from integrated collaboration to full oil and gas industry chain development;increase the acquisition of high-quality large-scale assets, and pay attention to the continuous optimization of the shareholding ratio of projects at different stages.
基金the financial support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.71922013)。
文摘The frequent occurrence of geopolitical crises in the post-financial crisis era is driving the rethinking behind whether the global crude oil market is still a highly connected"great pool".Using the spillover network model suggested by Baruník and Krehlík(2018),and the daily data of 31 global crude oil markets from 2009 to 2019,this study examines the return and volatility spillover effects and their timevarying behavior in six crude oil market segments at different timescales.The findings indicate that heterogeneity exists in the co-movements between global crude oil markets in the post-financial crisis era.In the medium term,both return and volatility spillover effects are not significant,which makes the diversified portfolio strategy useful.Prices in the Europe and Central Asian regions take the lead in return spillovers.In contrast,Asia-Pacific regional prices contribute the most in terms of volatility spillovers.Long-term volatility spillovers increase sharply when confronted with oil-related events in the postfinancial crisis era.Therefore,policymakers should take effective measures to prevent any large-scale risk transmission in the long run.
基金the financial support from the Science Foundation of China University of Petroleum,Beijing(2462020YXZZ038)
文摘Compared with retail prices of state-owned companies used in almost all existing studies,China’s refined oil wholesale prices of private enterprises and local refineries are more affected by the market and better reflect the real supply-demand situation.For the first time,this paper applies own-monitored dailyfrequency wholesale prices of China’s private enterprises and local refineries during 2013-2020 to derive spillover effects of international crude oil prices on China’s refined oil prices through the VAR-BEKKGARCH(vector autoregression-Baba,Engle,Kraft,and Kroner-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity)model,and then tries to forecast wholesale prices through the PCA-BP(principal component analysis-back propagation)neural network model.Results show that international crude oil prices have significant mean spillover and volatility spillover effects on China’s refined oil wholesale prices.Changes in crude oil prices are the Granger cause of changes in refined oil wholesale prices.With the improvement of China’s oil-pricing mechanism in 2016,the volatility spillover from the international crude oil market to China’s refined oil market gradually increases,and the BRENT price variation has an increasing impact on the refined oil wholesale price variation.The PCA-BP model could serve as a candidate tool for forecasting China’s refined oil wholesale prices.
基金This article was supported by Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China.(Project Number:71472030).
文摘Background:The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of the oil price and its volatility on the stock market of Pakistan before and after the 2007 financial crisis period.Methods:The analyses are carried out on daily data for the period from July 31,2000 to July 31,2014.This study uses several econometric techniques for the analyses,namely,the Johansen-Juselius cointegration test,generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity(GARCH)model,exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity(EGARCH)model,variance decomposition method,and impulse response function.Results:The results of the cointegration method indicate a significant long-run association between stock market and oil prices in the pre-crisis period.The EGARCH model shows that oil price returns have a significant effect on stock market returns in both sub-periods,while the result for the GARCH model is significant only in the postcrisis period.We find a significant effect of oil price volatility on the stock market in both sub-periods from the GARCH model.Furthermore,the EGARCH model shows an asymmetric effect of oil price volatility on the stock market in the pre-crisis period.Variance decomposition shows that stock market variations are mostly explained by selfinnovation.Moreover,the impulse response function results show that oil price shocks affected the stock market adversely in the pre-crisis period but positively in the postcrisis period.Conclusions:This study suggests that economic policymakers and investors should consider the oil price as an important factor affecting stock market returns.
文摘The purpose of this study is to contribute to the literature by studying the effects of sudden changes both on crude oil import price and domestic gasoline price on inflation for Turkey, an emerging country. Since an inflation targeting regime is being carried out by the Central Bank of Turkey, determination of such effects is becoming more important. Therefore empirical evidence in this paper will serve as guidance for those countries, which have an in- flation targeting regime. Analyses have been done in the period of October 2005-December 2012 by Markovswitching vector autoregressive （MS-VAR） models which are successful in capturing the nonlinear properties of variables. Using MS-VAR analysis, it is found that there are 2 regimes in the analysis period. Furthermore, regime changes can be dated and the turning points of economic cycles can be determined. In addition, it is found that the effect of the changes in crude oil and domestic gasoline prices on consumer prices and core inflation is not the same under different regimes. Moreover, the sudden increase in gasoline price is more important for consumer price infla- tion than crude oil price shocks. Another finding is the presence of a pass-through effect from oil price and ga- soline price to core inflation.
基金supported by the National Science Foundation of China(NSFC No.41271551/71201157)the National Key Research and Development Program(2016YFA0602700)
文摘It is of real and direct significance for China to cope with oil price fluctuations and ensure oil security. This paper aims to quantitatively analyze the specific contribution ratios of the complex factors influencing international crude oil prices and to establish crude oil price models to forecast long-term international crude oil prices. Six explanatory influential variables, namely Dow Jones Indexes, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development oil stocks, US rotary rig count, US dollar index, total open interest, which is the total number of outstanding contracts that are held by market participants at the end of each day, and geopolitical instability are specified, and the samples, from January 1990 to August 2017, are divided into six sub-periods. Moreover, the co-integration relationship among variables shows that the contribution ratios of all the variables influencing Brent crude oil prices are in accordance with the corresponding qualitative analysis. Furthermore, from September 2017 to December 2022 outside of the sample, the Vector Autoregressive forecasts show that annually averaged Brent crude oil prices for 2017-2022 would be $53.0, $61.3, $74.4, $90.0, $105.5, and $120.7 per barrel, respectively. The Vector Error Correction forecasts show that annual average Brent crude oil prices for 2017-2022 would be $53.0, $56.5, $58.5, $60.7, $63.0 and $65.4 per barrel, respectively.
基金supports from National Natural Science Foundation of China(71774087).
文摘“Belt and Road” is the important origin of oil import in China. Based on social network analysis and stochastic frontier gravity model, this paper studied the characteristic evolution and influence factor of oil import network between China and “Belt and Road” countries. Then by constructing a stochastic frontier gravity model including the crude oil future price and oil importing price, it found that the international crude oil future price, the oil importing price, the political situation, the trade agreements have the effects on the China's oil import from “Belt and Road” region. It provided suggestions for improving the spatial pattern of China's petroleum trade.
基金We would like to disclose that no funding was received in the process of this study.
文摘Background:Given the shale oil glut that culminated in the most recent and continuing oil price drop from June 2014 and the global financial crisis of 2008 that triggered a cyclical downturn in oil prices and stock market activity,this study investigates the impact of Brent oil price shocks on oil related stocks in Nigeria.Methods:This study uses a vector autoregressive(VAR)model with the impulse response function and the forecast variance decomposition error.Findings:The empirical evidence reveals that oil price shocks have a negative impact on Nigerian oil and gas company stocks.In theory,this situation should apply to oil importing countries and is therefore uncharacteristic of an oil exporting country like Nigeria.Conclusions:The findings suggest that oil companies operating in Nigeria should diversify their investments to protect their business from single-sector market forces,and can also embrace the advantages of outsourcing some of their operations to specialist providers to increase flexibility and reduce operating costs.Finally,for vertically integrated oil and gas companies,oil price hedging and energy risk management will be beneficial because it will mean that these companies will take a position in the crude oil futures market.This will allow for better cash flow management and flexibility.Originality/value:This study extends the existing literature in two distinct ways.First,it provides,to the best of our knowledge,the first examination of the impact of oil price shocks on stock market activities with a focus on the market returns of oil and gas companies listed in the Nigerian Stock Exchange.Second,this study uses daily data because high frequency data contain more information than lower frequency data does,and lower frequency data average out too much important information.
文摘This study analyzes oil price exposure of the oil–gas sector stock returns for the fragile five countries based on a multi-factor asset pricing model using daily data from 29 May 1996 to 27 January 2020.The endogenous structural break test suggests the presence of serious parameter instabilities due to fluctuations in the oil and stock markets over the period under study.Moreover,the time-varying estimates indicate that the oil–gas sectors of these countries are riskier than the overall stock market.The results further suggest that,except for Indonesia,oil prices have a positive impact on the sectoral returns of all markets,whereas the impact of the exchange rates on the oil–gas sector returns varies across time and countries.
基金supported from the National Science and Technology Major Project under Grant No.2011ZX05030
文摘Deepwater oil and gas projects embody high risks from geology and engineering aspects, which exert substantial influence on project valuation. But the uncer- tainties may be converted to additional value to the projects in the case of flexible management. Given the flexibility of project management, this paper extends the classical real options model to a multi-factor model which contains oil price, geology, and engineering uncertainties. It then gives an application example of the new model to evaluate deepwater oil and gas projects with a numerical analytical method. Compared with other methods and models, this multi-factor real options model contains more project information. It reflects the potential value deriving not only from oil price variation but also from geology and engi- neering uncertainties, which provides more accurate and reliable valuation information for decision makers.
文摘This paper proposes a Markov-switching copula model to examine the presence of regime change in the time-varying dependence structure between oil price changes and stock market returns in six GCC countries. The marginal distributions are assumed to follow a long-memory model while the copula parameters are supposed to evolve according to the Markov-switching process. Furthermore, we estimate the Value-at-Risk (VaR) based on the proposed approach. The empirical results provide evidence of three regime changes, representing precrisis, financial crisis and post-crisis, in the dependence structure between energy and GCC stock markets. In particular, in the pre- and post-crisis regimes, there is no dependence, while in the crisis regime, there is significant tail dependence. For OPEC countries, we find lower tail dependence whereas in non-OPEC countries, we see upper tail dependence. VaR experiments show that the Markov-switching time- varying copula model performs better than the time-varying copula model.
文摘Time-series-based forecasting is essential to determine how past events affect future events. This paper compares the performance accuracy of different time-series models for oil prices. Three types of univariate models are discussed: the exponential smoothing (ES), Holt-Winters (HW) and autoregressive intergrade moving average (ARIMA) models. To determine the best model, six different strategies were applied as selection criteria to quantify these models’ prediction accuracies. This comparison should help policy makers and industry marketing strategists select the best forecasting method in oil market. The three models were compared by applying them to the time series of regular oil prices for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude. The comparison indicated that the HW model performed better than the ES model for a prediction with a confidence interval of 95%. However, the ARIMA (2, 1, 2) model yielded the best results, leading us to conclude that this sophisticated and robust model outperformed other simple yet flexible models in oil market.
文摘Natural gas is of great significance to ensuring China's energy security and achieving“carbon neutrality”by 2060.However,the lack of power to decide LNG import pricing and the high resource cost bring challenges to the stable supply of natural gas in China.In this regard,after analyzing the historical evolution laws of global LNG pricing,this paper systematically summarizes the pricing trends of newly signed contracts in 2020,and comparatively analyzes China's long-term LNG import pricing modes and its problems.And the following research results were obtained.First,the global LNG pricing mechanism is more diversified,regional characteristics and“Asian premium”problems are obvious,and different pricing mechanisms complement each other.Second,the newly signed long-term LNG agreement is linked with oil prices to play a dominant role again,and the oil-linked slope declines continuously and presents a dynamic mixed S-curve.Third,China's long-term LNG agreement is linked with oil prices at a high proportion,so there are no market conditions of gas–gas competition and the price review period is long.Finally,several suggestions were proposed for China's LNG import pricing.Firstly,stick to the principles of“short-term flexibility”and“long-term stability”,and make use of multiple modes comprehensively,e.g.gas–gas competition and Brent price linked,instead of completely decoupling oil prices.Secondly,referring to global newly signed contracts and Asian reviewed contracts,adhere to the principle of market parity,improve the price review terms and shorten the review period.Thirdly,the government shall support the construction of natural gas trading centers and futures markets and form the internationally recognized regional benchmark price as soon as possible.Fourthly,make a plan in advance,establish a risk hedging mechanism and control the overall cost of imported LNG resources.
基金Supported by Program for Changjiang Scholars and Innovative Research Team in University（ IRT1208 ）
文摘A forecasting model of the monthly crude oil price is investigated using the data between 1988 and 2009 from U. S. Energy Information Administration. First generalized auto-regressive condi- tional beteroskedasticity （GARCH） is applied to a state space model, a hybrid model （SS-GARCH） is proposed. Afterwards by computing a special likelihood function with two weak assumptions, model parameters are estimated by means of a faster algorithm. Based on the SS-GARCH model with the identified parameters, oil prices of next three months are forecasted by applying a Kalman filter. Through comparing the results between the SS-GARCH model and an econometric structure model, the SS-GARCH method is shown that it improves the forecasting accuracy by decreasing the index of mean absolute error （ RMSE ） from 7. 09 to 2.99, and also decreasing the index of MAE from 3. 83 to 1.69. The results indicate that the SS-GARCH model can play a useful role in forecasting short-term crude oil prices.
文摘Because the U.S.is a major player in the international oil market,it is interesting to study whether aggregate and state-level economic conditions can predict the subse-quent realized volatility of oil price returns.To address this research question,we frame our analysis in terms of variants of the popular heterogeneous autoregressive realized volatility(HAR-RV)model.To estimate the models,we use quantile-regression and quantile machine learning(Lasso)estimators.Our estimation results highlights the dif-ferential effects of economic conditions on the quantiles of the conditional distribution of realized volatility.Using weekly data for the period April 1987 to December 2021,we document evidence of predictability at a biweekly and monthly horizon.
文摘The oil industries are an important part of a country’s economy.The crude oil’s price is influenced by a wide range of variables.Therefore,how accurately can countries predict its behavior and what predictors to employ are two main questions.In this view,we propose utilizing deep learning and ensemble learning techniques to boost crude oil’s price forecasting performance.The suggested method is based on a deep learning snapshot ensemble method of the Transformer model.To examine the superiority of the proposed model,this paper compares the proposed deep learning ensemble model against different machine learning and statistical models for daily Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries(OPEC)oil price forecasting.Experimental results demonstrated the outperformance of the proposed method over statistical and machine learning methods.More precisely,the proposed snapshot ensemble of Transformer method achieved relative improvement in the forecasting performance compared to autoregressive integrated moving average ARIMA(1,1,1),ARIMA(0,1,1),autoregressive moving average(ARMA)(0,1),vector autoregression(VAR),random walk(RW),support vector machine(SVM),and random forests(RF)models by 99.94%,99.62%,99.87%,99.65%,7.55%,98.38%,and 99.35%,respectively,according to mean square error metric.
