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China's Oil Demand and Resource Potential
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作者 Hu Jianyi and Zhao Wenzhi(Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration & Development,CNPC) 《China Oil & Gas》 CAS 1994年第3期19-22,共4页
The analysis based on the statistics conducted in the past decades shows that China's oil demand will rise by about 0.7 percent for every 1 percent increase in its gross national product(GNP).The oil demand will h... The analysis based on the statistics conducted in the past decades shows that China's oil demand will rise by about 0.7 percent for every 1 percent increase in its gross national product(GNP).The oil demand will have to climb by 6 percent on average each year if the country registers an average annual increase of 9 percent in its GNP.The oil demand is expected to rise by 5 percent annually in the upcoming years even if the efforts are made to upgrade the equipment and tech-nology and boost the efficiency. 展开更多
关键词 oil NATURAL GAS demand oil RESERVE PREDICTION
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Analysis of China’s Crude Oil Supply and Demand in the Year 2010 and the Year 2020 被引量:1
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作者 Wang Baoyi Zhang Baosheng 《Petroleum Science》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2005年第3期89-92,共4页
Along with the speedy development of the economic growth in China, the shortage of oil and gas becomes more and more serious. Based on summarizing some related research results, the prediction of China's oil demand a... Along with the speedy development of the economic growth in China, the shortage of oil and gas becomes more and more serious. Based on summarizing some related research results, the prediction of China's oil demand and supply in the year 2010 and the year 2020 has been given in the paper. The oil supply and demand situation is discussed on three different levels. Accordingly, suggestions about the oil supply safety and the national economy safety strategies have been given. 展开更多
关键词 oil supply and demand prediction and analysis oil supply safety strategy
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China's Excess Oil Refining Production Capacity in the Background of the Supply Side Structural Reform
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作者 Wang Zhen Zhang Yuxuan 《China Oil & Gas》 CAS 2018年第3期43-51,共9页
Through analysis of the current situation and newly-increased production capacity-of the oil refining industry of China, this Paper discusses both the continuous expansion trend and the serious excess of production ca... Through analysis of the current situation and newly-increased production capacity-of the oil refining industry of China, this Paper discusses both the continuous expansion trend and the serious excess of production capacity of the oil refining industry of China. Due to the entry of the Chinese economy into the new normal,the accelerated substitution of old energy by new energy and rigid restrictions composed of low carbon and environmental protection requirements, the oil demand of China will continue to increase overall, but the growth will obviously slow down. At the same time, the newly-increased production capacity in Shandong and coastal region will continuously expand, the supply and demand contradiction will intensify, and the structural excess production capacity of the oil refining industry of China will be prominent. It is suggested that the government should attach great importance to the production capacity of the oil refining industry at the macro level, and deeply carry forward the supply side structural reform, and that enterprises should speed up technical innovation,enhance regional and layout optimization, adapt to market changes and adjust product structure, control oil refining but increase chemical engineering, improve product quality and production efficiency, and constantly promote the international competitiveness of the Chinese petrochemical industry. 展开更多
关键词 oil refining production capacity oil demand Supply side structural reform
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Spillover and quantile linkage between oil price shocks and stock returns: new evidence from G7 countries 被引量:1
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作者 Yonghong Jiang Gengyu Tian Bin Mo 《Financial Innovation》 2020年第1期912-939,共28页
The link between crude oil price and stock returns of the Group of Seven(G7)countries(Canada,France,Germany,Italy,Japan,the United Kingdom,and the United States)was analyzed in this study using monthly data from Janua... The link between crude oil price and stock returns of the Group of Seven(G7)countries(Canada,France,Germany,Italy,Japan,the United Kingdom,and the United States)was analyzed in this study using monthly data from January 1999 to March 2020.We adopt a similar approach to Kilian(Am Econ Rev 99(3):1053–1069,2009)and construct a structural vector autoregression framework to decompose crude oil price shocks into oil supply shock,oil aggregate demand shock,and oil-specific demand shock.We then explore the distinct effects of different kinds of oil price shocks from various sources.Based on the decomposed oil price shocks,we apply the connectedness approach and QQ regression to find time-varying co-movements and tail dependence between oil price shocks and G7 stock returns.There is no general correlation between the decomposed oil prices and stock returns in these countries.The effects of oil price shocks on stock returns across different stock market conditions appear to be heterogeneous.Oil supply shock appears to be a net transmitter of spillover effects for all G7 countries within the sample period. 展开更多
关键词 oil supply shock oil aggregate demand shock oil specific demand shock Stock market Spillover effect Quantile-on-quantile
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Current scenario and potential of biodiesel production from waste cooking oil in Pakistan: An overview 被引量:3
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作者 Haris Mahmood Khan Chaudhry Haider Ali +6 位作者 Tanveer Iqbal Saima Yasin Muhammad Sulaiman Hamayoun Mahmood Muhammad Raashid Mohsin Pasha BozhongMu 《Chinese Journal of Chemical Engineering》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2019年第10期2238-2250,共13页
Biodiesel utilization has been rapidly growing worldwide as the prime alternative to petrodiesel due to a global rise in diesel fuel demand along with hazardous emissions during its thermochemical conversion.Although,... Biodiesel utilization has been rapidly growing worldwide as the prime alternative to petrodiesel due to a global rise in diesel fuel demand along with hazardous emissions during its thermochemical conversion.Although,several debatable issues including feedstock availability and price,fuel and food competition,changes in land use and greenhouse gas emission have been raised by using edible as well as inedible feedstocks for the production of biodiesel.However,non-crop feedstocks could be a promising alternative.In this article,waste cooking oils have been recommended as a suitable option for biodiesel production bearing in mind the current national situation.The important factors such as the quantity of waste cooking oil produced,crude oil and vegetable oil import expenses,high-speed diesel imports,waste management issues and environmental hazards are considered.Moreover,process simulation and operating cost evaluation of an acid catalyzed biodiesel production unit are also conducted.The simulation results show that the production cost of waste cooking oil-based biodiesel is about 0.66 USD·L-1.We believe that the present overview would open new pathways and ideas for the development of biofuels from waste to energy approach in Pakistan. 展开更多
关键词 BIODIESEL Waste COOKING oil FEEDSTOCK SUSTAINABILITY Energy demand Pakistan
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Status, trends and enlightenment of global oil and gas development in 2021 被引量:3
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作者 WANG Zuoqian FAN Zifei +2 位作者 ZHANG Xingyang LIU Baolei CHEN Xi 《Petroleum Exploration and Development》 CSCD 2022年第5期1210-1228,共19页
By analyzing the distribution of global oil and gas fields and the reasons why some oil and gas fields are not in production, the distribution characteristics of oil and gas remaining recoverable reserves and their ye... By analyzing the distribution of global oil and gas fields and the reasons why some oil and gas fields are not in production, the distribution characteristics of oil and gas remaining recoverable reserves and their year-on-year changes, the distribution characteristics of oil and gas production and their year-on-year changes, and the development potential of oil and gas to be tapped in 2021, this paper sorts out systematically the current status and characteristics of global oil and gas development, summaries the major trends of global oil and gas development, puts forward enlightenment for international oil and gas cooperation. In 2021, oil and gas fields were widely distributed, the number of non-producing oil and gas fields was large;the whole oil and gas remaining recoverable reserves declined slightly, unconventional oil and gas remaining recoverable reserves dropped significantly;the overall oil and gas production continuously increased, the outputs of key resource-host countries kept year-on-year growth;undeveloped oilfields had abundant reserves and great development potential. Combined with global oil and gas geopolitics, oil and gas industry development trends, oil and gas investment intensity, and the tracking and judgment of hotspot fields, the major trends of global oil and gas development in 2021 are summarized. On this basis, the four aspects of enlightenment and suggestions for international oil and gas cooperation and development strategies are put forward: attach great importance to the obligation of marine abandonment to ensure high-quality and long-term benefit development of offshore oil and gas;adhere to the principle of not going to dangerous and chaotic places, strengthen the concentration of oil and gas assets, and establish multi stable supply bases;based on the multi-scenario demand of natural gas, realize the transformation from integrated collaboration to full oil and gas industry chain development;increase the acquisition of high-quality large-scale assets, and pay attention to the continuous optimization of the shareholding ratio of projects at different stages. 展开更多
关键词 global oil and gas development development situation development potential development investment oil price oil and gas supply and demand fiscal and tax policies concentration of oil and gas asset
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动态需求情形下多行程多交货期的成品油配送优化 被引量:1
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作者 谢勇 高海龙 +1 位作者 陈于涛 王焕江 《系统仿真学报》 北大核心 2025年第8期2016-2029,共14页
在动态需求情形下,综合考虑订单交货期、车辆运输时间窗等因素,以最大化配送收益为目标,建立了多行程多交货期的成品油周期性配送优化模型,并设计了基于强化学习的大邻域搜索算法进行求解。基于前向插入启发式算法构造初始解;设计了面... 在动态需求情形下,综合考虑订单交货期、车辆运输时间窗等因素,以最大化配送收益为目标,建立了多行程多交货期的成品油周期性配送优化模型,并设计了基于强化学习的大邻域搜索算法进行求解。基于前向插入启发式算法构造初始解;设计了面向邻域算子选择的深度强化学习模型,通过双深度Q网络拟合动作价值函数,以选择最优的邻域操作算子,获得最优配送方案。实验结果表明:基于强化学习的大邻域搜索算法能够在保证求解质量的同时有效提升求解速度。 展开更多
关键词 成品油配送 动态需求 多行程 多交货期 强化学习
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Review and Outlook of China's Oil Market in 2015
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作者 Gong Jinshuang 《China Oil & Gas》 CAS 2015年第3期22-28,共7页
Growth rate of oil demand rose again in China in the first half of 2015. Demand for oil products went on differentiating, and the demand growth of most products sped up. Growth rate of oil production rose again, oil i... Growth rate of oil demand rose again in China in the first half of 2015. Demand for oil products went on differentiating, and the demand growth of most products sped up. Growth rate of oil production rose again, oil imports increased rapidly, and external dependence of crude oil and oil broke through 60% separately. The State adjusted the prices of gasoline and diesel timely and frequently, based on pricing mechanism. Price hike was higher than reduction. Oil market got weak, yet more stable. China increased the pace of reforms in marketization. In the second half, oil demand will increase continuously but with lower growth rate, oil production will rise more slowly, imports of crude oil and oil will keep on rising rapidly, gasoline and kerosene as well as diesel will witness a net import, and the market of gasoline, kerosene and diesel will be more stable. 展开更多
关键词 the year of 2015 China oil supply and demand price half a year review outlook
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Aerobic Degradation Process in Palm Oil Mill— Issues, Challenges and Upsurging Its Efficiency through Bioremediation
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作者 Ili Bazilah Abd Razak Nor Hidayah Bohari +4 位作者 Elya Masya Mohd Fishal Nurul Lina Mohamad Muhamad Nurfikri Azmi Muhammad Firdaus Fahmi Mohd Razali Hamdan Ibrahim 《Journal of Water Resource and Protection》 CAS 2022年第7期515-530,共16页
Palm oil mill effluent (POME) is liquid waste produced from palm oil extraction process. Discharging it to the river without treatment is violation according to Malaysia Environment of Quality Act (EQA) 1974. In Malay... Palm oil mill effluent (POME) is liquid waste produced from palm oil extraction process. Discharging it to the river without treatment is violation according to Malaysia Environment of Quality Act (EQA) 1974. In Malaysia, ponding system is a conventional treatment method for POME due to its economical and simple process. The treatment process mainly involves two main treatment phases;anaerobic and aerobic degradation. Anaerobic degradation has a proven track record in reducing pollutant properties in POME up to 85%. The real challenge is to increase the efficiency of aerobic process as the biological oxygen demand (BOD) discharge limit has been further reduced from 100 mg&middot;L<sup>-1</sup> to less than 20 mg&middot;L<sup>-1</sup>. One of economical and feasible approach to increase the efficiency of aerobic phase is via bioremediation. This paper describes the limitation of aerobic degradation in ponding system, besides discussed on the important aspects that need to be optimized for a success implementation of bioremediation and its challenges. 展开更多
关键词 AEROBIC ANAEROBIC BIOREMEDIATION Biological Oxygen demand Palm oil Mill Effluent
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美国“对等关税”对国际原油市场的影响 被引量:2
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作者 侯明扬 《国际石油经济》 2025年第5期45-50,共6页
美国“对等关税”计划叠加“欧佩克+”计划5月起增产等因素,导致WTI和布伦特两大基准原油价格在3个交易日内连续暴跌。尽管美国“对等关税”计划将对世界各国政治经济带来巨大冲击,但供需基本面仍是国际油价波动走势的决定因素。当前国... 美国“对等关税”计划叠加“欧佩克+”计划5月起增产等因素,导致WTI和布伦特两大基准原油价格在3个交易日内连续暴跌。尽管美国“对等关税”计划将对世界各国政治经济带来巨大冲击,但供需基本面仍是国际油价波动走势的决定因素。当前国际油价波动走势仍是“以供给侧为主导,供需两侧共同作用”。在供给侧,投资、成本和资源约束不支撑原油产量大幅增加;在需求侧,“消费刚性”不支撑原油需求大幅下降。判定短期内国际油价将出现一定波动,但近中期难以持续大幅下降。在此背景下,建议中国石油企业重点从4个方面保障国家油气供给安全:一是高质量推进国内油气增储上产,二是持续推动油气勘探开发技术创新,三是稳步加强海外油气资源并购,四是有序加大国内油气储备能力建设。 展开更多
关键词 美国对等关税 国际油价 原油供需 增储上产 科技创新 原油储备
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2025年上半年国际石油市场回顾及下半年展望
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作者 侯晖 《当代石油石化》 2025年第8期8-13,20,共7页
2025年上半年,国际油价呈现宽幅震荡态势,整体运行区间较前期显著下移,主要受到美国“对等关税”政策冲击、欧佩克+超预期增产、地缘政治局势动荡等多重因素的交织影响。下半年,国际油价下行压力仍较大,原因在于美国“对等关税”正式实... 2025年上半年,国际油价呈现宽幅震荡态势,整体运行区间较前期显著下移,主要受到美国“对等关税”政策冲击、欧佩克+超预期增产、地缘政治局势动荡等多重因素的交织影响。下半年,国际油价下行压力仍较大,原因在于美国“对等关税”正式实施后对全球经济贸易增长的抑制,导致石油需求承压。9月需求旺季之后,全球原油供应在欧佩克+大幅增产与非欧佩克主要产油国持续增产的共同推动下显著增长,预计石油供应过剩量达120万桶/日。此外,俄乌停火谈判、特朗普政府相关政策、欧佩克+产量政策等均存在较大不确定性,预测2025年下半年布伦特油价主要运行区间为60~75美元/桶。 展开更多
关键词 国际油价 地缘政治 “对等关税” 欧佩克+ 石油需求
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国际原油市场2024年回顾和2025年展望 被引量:2
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作者 张庆辰 张虹雨 +2 位作者 仇玄 李想 高洁 《国际石油经济》 2025年第3期60-66,共7页
2024年,国际油价先涨后跌、宽幅震荡。上半年,油价在需求大幅增长和供应持续紧张预期下走高,但随着市场修正对中国需求预测、“欧佩克+”宣布退出自愿减产计划,供需基本面预期反转导致油价震荡下行。全年看,2024年需求增长80万桶/日,供... 2024年,国际油价先涨后跌、宽幅震荡。上半年,油价在需求大幅增长和供应持续紧张预期下走高,但随着市场修正对中国需求预测、“欧佩克+”宣布退出自愿减产计划,供需基本面预期反转导致油价震荡下行。全年看,2024年需求增长80万桶/日,供应增长120万桶/日,全年供需基本平衡,全球原油库存创下2017年以来最低水平。展望2025年,需求增长放缓,供应持续攀升,推动全球原油库存自低位回升;美联储在通胀压力下放缓降息进程,美元指数保持强势,叠加全球地缘冲突或有望缓和,地缘溢价回落。总体预计,2025年国际油价运行中枢下移,布伦特原油均价在69~74美元/桶区间。 展开更多
关键词 国际原油市场 需求 产量 库存 原油价格
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炼化产业发展定位与公司战略的再思考
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作者 张晨 柯晓明 《石油石化绿色低碳》 2025年第6期7-13,共7页
全球能源转型步入低碳时代,同时面临我国成品油需求达峰、产能过剩及双碳目标刚性约束,炼化产业传统发展逻辑面临根本性变革。文章基于全球能源革命与行业竞争格局演变,梳理了国内炼化行业的历史定位演进,明确其在中国式现代化背景下向... 全球能源转型步入低碳时代,同时面临我国成品油需求达峰、产能过剩及双碳目标刚性约束,炼化产业传统发展逻辑面临根本性变革。文章基于全球能源革命与行业竞争格局演变,梳理了国内炼化行业的历史定位演进,明确其在中国式现代化背景下向“绿色化、高端化、数智化导向的价值创造者”转型的新定位。通过对比欧美石油公司差异化转型路径,提炼出“平衡安全与低碳”“依托核心竞争力”的转型经验。结合国情,提出炼化企业转型需坚守“服从国家战略、低成本转型、先立后破、差异化布局、技术创新驱动”五大关键原则。研究结论为我国石油公司在需求达峰后破解结构性矛盾、构建新型竞争力提供了战略参考,助力炼化产业成为服务国家现代化大局的战略性支柱产业。 展开更多
关键词 炼化产业 能源转型 战略定位 差异化转型 技术创新 石油需求 绿色低碳
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平板陶瓷膜处理含乳化油废水试验
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作者 田宇 刘馥瑶 +2 位作者 石敏感 王雪莲 安富强 《陶瓷学报》 北大核心 2025年第1期167-174,共8页
以平板陶瓷膜为核心过滤介质,以含乳化油废水为处理对象,以出水COD_(Cr)为指标,研究了进水COD_(Cr)、pH值、曝气等因素对处理效果的影响,考察了平板陶瓷膜处理含乳化油废水的可行性。结果表明:在进水COD_(Cr)为120 mg·L^(-1)、pH为... 以平板陶瓷膜为核心过滤介质,以含乳化油废水为处理对象,以出水COD_(Cr)为指标,研究了进水COD_(Cr)、pH值、曝气等因素对处理效果的影响,考察了平板陶瓷膜处理含乳化油废水的可行性。结果表明:在进水COD_(Cr)为120 mg·L^(-1)、pH为9且曝气的条件下,平板陶瓷膜的处理效果最佳,其出水COD_(Cr)可降至57 mg·L^(-1)、去除率为52.5%。同时,曝气可以有效降低膜污染程度,延长平板陶瓷膜使用时间。 展开更多
关键词 平板陶瓷膜 截留 乳化油 化学需氧量 废水
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2025年上半年国际石油市场回顾及下半年展望
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作者 孙文佳 陈聪 +2 位作者 刘凯雷 王利宁 石洪宇 《国际石油经济》 2025年第7期66-72,共7页
2025年上半年,全球石油需求增速低于2024年同期,国际石油市场在复杂多变的全球经济环境与地缘政治格局中呈现震荡下行走势。需求侧受特朗普“对等关税”政策频繁变动拖累,全球石油需求增量有限;供给端则因“欧佩克+”退出额外自愿减产... 2025年上半年,全球石油需求增速低于2024年同期,国际石油市场在复杂多变的全球经济环境与地缘政治格局中呈现震荡下行走势。需求侧受特朗普“对等关税”政策频繁变动拖累,全球石油需求增量有限;供给端则因“欧佩克+”退出额外自愿减产与北美产量回升,全球石油供应增加;叠加地缘政治冲突持续扰动市场因素,国际油价波动加剧。下半年,市场将面临经济增长放缓、供需持续宽松导致库存增加、地缘风险不确定性增加等多重挑战,预计油价将维持偏弱的震荡格局。中国亟需采取“三维战略”应对变局:夯实国内资源基础,持续推进重要能源资源增储上产;鼓励石油企业把握国际油价相对低位的时间窗口,强化上游资源战略布局;加速构建多级储备体系,并灵活运用原油期货、期权、掉期等金融工具建立价格波动防火墙。通过国内增产保供、海外资源拓展、储备能力建设的协同推进,实现能源安全保障与经营效益的动态平衡。 展开更多
关键词 国际石油市场 原油需求 原油供应 地缘局势 国际油价 “欧佩克+”
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基于AI驱动的成品油库存管理优化宏观路径研究 被引量:1
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作者 张旭莉 《中外能源》 2025年第6期90-94,共5页
在能源结构加速调整背景下,成品油流通领域竞争加剧,成品油库存管理面临库存成本高企、需求预测偏差大、供应链协同效率低等问题。为突破传统经验决策模式对库存管理效能的制约,构建智能化库存管理优化体系,为行业数字化转型提供理论与... 在能源结构加速调整背景下,成品油流通领域竞争加剧,成品油库存管理面临库存成本高企、需求预测偏差大、供应链协同效率低等问题。为突破传统经验决策模式对库存管理效能的制约,构建智能化库存管理优化体系,为行业数字化转型提供理论与实践参考。采用“数据驱动决策-流程智能重塑-价值网络重构”三维框架,形成覆盖需求预测、库存调运、成本控制的全链条智能化解决方案。在需求预测环节,通过整合多源异构数据构建机器学习预测模型,将需求预测准确率提升20%;在库存调运环节,开发基于遗传算法的多目标优化模型,实现资源最优配置,使车辆空驶率下降22%,调度效率大幅提升;在成本控制维度,构建动态成本函数,结合线性规划算法实现库存优化,利用区块链技术搭建供应链协同平台,推动上下游数据实时共享,使库存成本降低约15%。研究表明,人工智能(AI)通过数据要素驱动、业务流程再造和价值网络协同,可系统性提升库存管理效能。 展开更多
关键词 成品油库存管理 人工智能 需求预测 库存调运 成本控制 价值链重构
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2025年国际原油市场关键影响因素分析及价格展望 被引量:4
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作者 陈佳睿 《国际石油经济》 2025年第1期77-84,共8页
2025年,供需基本面、宏观经济和地缘政治三大因素将共同作用和影响油价的波动趋势。美国经济的不确定性,中国经济的复苏,欧洲经济的低增长,是主要的宏观经济因素。欧佩克闲置产能寻求增产,非欧佩克产油国产量强劲增长,中国石油需求放缓... 2025年,供需基本面、宏观经济和地缘政治三大因素将共同作用和影响油价的波动趋势。美国经济的不确定性,中国经济的复苏,欧洲经济的低增长,是主要的宏观经济因素。欧佩克闲置产能寻求增产,非欧佩克产油国产量强劲增长,中国石油需求放缓,全球石油供大于求,是主要的供需基本面因素。美国的制裁,乌克兰危机,中东地区冲突,是主要的地缘政治因素。2025年上半年,欧佩克推迟减产、乌克兰危机不确定性等因素或支撑布伦特油价在70美元/桶上方震荡;下半年,中美贸易战发展态势、石油市场供应过剩幅度和地缘局势变化将主导国际油价走势,布伦特油价或跌破过去两年的震荡区间底部70美元/桶,在60美元/桶附近重新寻底。总体看,石油市场多空因素交织,但基本面利空因素更占主导,2025年布伦特油价波动重心下降,波动区间在65~85美元/桶,底部支撑在60美元/桶,上半年波动中枢高于下半年。 展开更多
关键词 全球原油市场 原油价格 宏观经济 供应与需求 地缘政治 中美贸易战 欧佩克 美国页岩油
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哈萨克斯坦成品油市场发展现状与思考建议
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作者 吴迪 杨超 +1 位作者 尹相庆 刘灵 《国际石油经济》 2025年第11期51-60,共10页
哈萨克斯坦成品油消费量呈逐年增长的趋势。受炼厂技术设备条件、轻质油品产出率偏低以及政府实施市场干预等因素的影响,哈萨克斯坦成品油市场曾长期处于供需失衡的状态。哈萨克斯坦原油生产和成品油消费的区域日趋集中,对物流运输等基... 哈萨克斯坦成品油消费量呈逐年增长的趋势。受炼厂技术设备条件、轻质油品产出率偏低以及政府实施市场干预等因素的影响,哈萨克斯坦成品油市场曾长期处于供需失衡的状态。哈萨克斯坦原油生产和成品油消费的区域日趋集中,对物流运输等基础设施能力提出新的要求。近年来,哈萨克斯坦政府逐步推动市场化改革措施,但也持续强化油气领域的宏观调控,修订、颁布一系列市场、财税和法律政策,加大市场监管力度,导致油气行业呈现出计划经济与市场经济共同交互的特征。在欧亚经济联盟建立统一市场和地缘政治格局重塑的背景下,哈萨克斯坦政府要求增加石化行业投资和推动市场化改革,成品油市场的发展已进入崭新阶段。建议中国石油企业认真研判下一阶段的业务发展主线,发力打造下一个在哈发展的“黄金”时期:1)获取上游优质资产,巩固合作共赢关系;2)呼吁减少行政管控,加速构建市场机制;3)警惕地缘政治风险,扩大中国元素影响。 展开更多
关键词 哈萨克斯坦 成品油市场 供需 价格 行政管控
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需求不确定的海上溢油应急物资运送优化
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作者 陶宁蓉 詹慧萍 王世明 《安全与环境学报》 北大核心 2025年第2期615-623,共9页
为了解决海上溢油事故发生时救援物资运送的问题,结合海上油膜的时变特性,考虑事故发生初期救援点位置变化和救援物资需求不确定,引入机会约束来确保满足救援点需求的可靠性,构建最小化环境污染和救援成本的双目标分布式鲁棒优化模型,... 为了解决海上溢油事故发生时救援物资运送的问题,结合海上油膜的时变特性,考虑事故发生初期救援点位置变化和救援物资需求不确定,引入机会约束来确保满足救援点需求的可靠性,构建最小化环境污染和救援成本的双目标分布式鲁棒优化模型,并利用非支配排序遗传算法求解。结果表明,与随机规化和鲁棒优化相比,采用分布式鲁棒优化方法处理所研究问题得到的解总成本更低,分别减少了4.30%和3.95%。与不考虑需求扰动的模型相比,所建模型可使优化结果更稳定,环境污染、救援成本的变异系数可由10.77%、12.37%分别降至4.10%、5.83%。敏感性分析结果表明,在制定救援方案时,基于恰当的可靠性水平可有效降低救援成本和环境污染。 展开更多
关键词 公共安全 海上溢油 物资调度 分布式鲁棒优化 需求不确定 救援点漂移
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