In this study,Bayesian probability method and machine learning model are used to study the real occurrence probability of earthquake-induced landslide risk in Taiwan region.The analyses were based on the 1999 Taiwan C...In this study,Bayesian probability method and machine learning model are used to study the real occurrence probability of earthquake-induced landslide risk in Taiwan region.The analyses were based on the 1999 Taiwan Chi-Chi Earthquake,the largest earthquake in the history in this Region in a hundred years,thus can provide better control on the prediction accuracy of the model.This seismic event has detailed and complete seismic landslide inventories identified by polygons,including 9272 seismic landslide records.Taking into account the real earthquake landslide occurrence area,the difference in landslide area and the non-sliding/sliding sample ratios and other factors,a total of 13,656,000 model training samples were selected.We also considered other seismic landslide influencing factors,including elevation,slope,aspect,topographic wetness index,lithology,distance to fault,peak ground acceleration and rainfall.Bayesian probability method and machine learning model were combined to establish the multi-factor influence of earthquake landslide occurrence model.The model is then applied to the whole Taiwan region using different ground motion peak accelerations(from 0.1 g to 1.0 g with 0.1 g intervals)as a triggering factor to complete the real probability of earthquake landslide map in Taiwan under different peak ground accelerations,and the functional relationship between different Peak Ground Acceleration and their predicted area is obtained.展开更多
The ground motions in the orientation corresponding to the strongest pulse energy impose more serious demand on structures than that of ordinary ground motions.Moreover,not all near-fault ground motion records present...The ground motions in the orientation corresponding to the strongest pulse energy impose more serious demand on structures than that of ordinary ground motions.Moreover,not all near-fault ground motion records present distinct pulses in the velocity time histories.In this paper,the parameterized stochastic model of near-fault ground motion with the strongest energy and pulse occurrence probability is suggested,and the Monte Carlo simulation(MSC)and subset simulation are utilized to calculate the first excursion probability of inelastic single-degree-of-freedom(SDOF)systems subjected to these types of near-fault ground motion models,respectively.Firstly,the influences of variation of stochastic pulse model parameters on structural dynamic reliability with different fundamental periods are explored.It is demonstrated that the variation of pulse period,peak ground velocity and pulse waveform number have significant effects on structural reliability and should not be ignored in reliability analysis.Then,subset simulation is verified to be unbiased and more efficient for computing small reliable probabilities of structures compared to MCS.Finally,the reliable probabilities of the SDOF systems with different fundamental periods subjected to impulsive,non-pulse ground motions and the ground motions with pulse occurrence probability are performed,separately.It is indicated that the ground motion model with the pulse occurrence probability can give a rational estimate on structural reliability.The impulsive and ordinary ground motion models may overestimate and underestimate the reliability of structures with fundamental period much less than the mean pulse period of earthquake ground motions.展开更多
A recent study by Liu et al.(2020)suggested that due to the saturation of equatorially trapped planetary waves with different dynamical types,temporal periods,meridional and baroclinic modes,complex layer structures o...A recent study by Liu et al.(2020)suggested that due to the saturation of equatorially trapped planetary waves with different dynamical types,temporal periods,meridional and baroclinic modes,complex layer structures of vertical velocity shear and hence turbulent mixing could frequently occur in the thermocline of the eastern equatorial Pacific.We investigated the occurrence of the interior turbulent mixing as indicated by shear instabilities,above the Equatorial Undercurrent(EUC)core at three equatorial sites along 140°W,170°W,and 165°E,respectively,based mainly on data from the Tropical Atmosphere and Ocean(TAO)mooring array.We found that turbulent mixing bursts persisted in the thermocline of all three sites.Specifically,the interior turbulent mixing layers(ITMLs)could occur in probability of approximately 68%,53%,and 48%at the three sites,respectively.The overall occurrence probability shows obvious and similar biannual variations at 140°W and 170°W,which is higher in boreal from late summer to winter and lower in spring.Vertically,the ITMLs are primarily located above the EUC core and prevail in deeper(shallower)layers from late summer to winter(spring).Most ITMLs(70%)lasted for hours to 3 days,and a few of them(15%)for more than 7 days.The thicknesses of ITMLs were concentrated between 15 and 55 m.At 165°E,the vertical distribution of ITML occurrence probability was different from that at 140°W and 170°W,as it did not show a preference for depths;the durations of ITMLs are short(also from hours to several days)and their thicknesses were between 5 and 25 m.These properties,particularly the high occurrence probability,and short durations demonstrated the persistence of thermocline mixing in the western to eastern equatorial Pacific thermocline and confirmed the generation mechanism by persistent equatorial waves as well.展开更多
The Zhangjiakou-Penglai fault zone lies in the northern part of North China Plain and extends along the Zhangjiakou-Huailai-Sanhe-Tianjin-Bohai Sea-Penglai-Yantai-North Huanghai Sea line, it is about 900 km long and s...The Zhangjiakou-Penglai fault zone lies in the northern part of North China Plain and extends along the Zhangjiakou-Huailai-Sanhe-Tianjin-Bohai Sea-Penglai-Yantai-North Huanghai Sea line, it is about 900 km long and some 250-km wide in a northwest direction. The 1679 Sanhe-Pinggu M 8.0 and the 1976 Tangshan M7.8 earthquakes occurred in the fault zone. In this paper an analysis of Gutenberg- Richter’s empirical relation and time process of historic and recent earthquakes along the eastern and western segments of the fault zone separated by the 117°line indicates that they obey a Poison process and, hence, a calculation from it yields a cumulative probability of strong earthquake occurrence along the two segments before 2010, i. e. the probability of M6.0 earthquake occurrence is 0.80 along the eastern segment and the probability of M7. 0 earthquake occurrence is 0.76 along the western segment of the fault zone.展开更多
A systematic method was proposed to estimate the occurrence probability of defective piles(OPDP) from a site according to quality assurance inspection. The OPDP was firstly suggested as the criterion to weight the per...A systematic method was proposed to estimate the occurrence probability of defective piles(OPDP) from a site according to quality assurance inspection. The OPDP was firstly suggested as the criterion to weight the performance of a pile foundation. Its prior distribution and updating distribution were deduced to follow Beta distributions. To calibrate the OPDP, a dynamic estimation model was established according to the relationships between prior mean and variance and updating mean and variance. Finally, a reliability-control method dealing with uncertainties arising from quality assurance inspection was formalized to judge whether all the bored piles from a site can be accepted. It is exemplified that the OPDP can be substantially improved when more definite prior information and sampling formation become available. For the example studied herein, the Bayesian estimator of updating variance for OPDP is reduced from 0.0037 to 0.0014 for the first inspection, from 0.0014 to 0.0009 for the second inspection, and with less uncertainty by incorporating experience information.展开更多
Based on faults surveying and research data in the Tianjin offshore areas,through studying tectonic structure,Quaternary activity,deep structure,stress and strain fields and seismicity in the Tianjin offshore areas,th...Based on faults surveying and research data in the Tianjin offshore areas,through studying tectonic structure,Quaternary activity,deep structure,stress and strain fields and seismicity in the Tianjin offshore areas,the activity and tectonic features of the faults are determined synthetically.Using seismo-geological data,and the historical and modern seismicity data,the frequency-magnitude relationship model normalized by 500a is established and based on the relationship between the upper limit of maximum magnitude M u and a t/b,the maximum magnitudes of the sea section of the Haihe river fault and the Haiyi fault are calculated.Then Poisson probability model is adopted and the quantitative parameters,such as the maximum magnitude,occurrence probability,recurrence cycle of the faults in the south Tianjin offshore areas in the coming 50～200a,are calculated.展开更多
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2018YFC1504703)。
文摘In this study,Bayesian probability method and machine learning model are used to study the real occurrence probability of earthquake-induced landslide risk in Taiwan region.The analyses were based on the 1999 Taiwan Chi-Chi Earthquake,the largest earthquake in the history in this Region in a hundred years,thus can provide better control on the prediction accuracy of the model.This seismic event has detailed and complete seismic landslide inventories identified by polygons,including 9272 seismic landslide records.Taking into account the real earthquake landslide occurrence area,the difference in landslide area and the non-sliding/sliding sample ratios and other factors,a total of 13,656,000 model training samples were selected.We also considered other seismic landslide influencing factors,including elevation,slope,aspect,topographic wetness index,lithology,distance to fault,peak ground acceleration and rainfall.Bayesian probability method and machine learning model were combined to establish the multi-factor influence of earthquake landslide occurrence model.The model is then applied to the whole Taiwan region using different ground motion peak accelerations(from 0.1 g to 1.0 g with 0.1 g intervals)as a triggering factor to complete the real probability of earthquake landslide map in Taiwan under different peak ground accelerations,and the functional relationship between different Peak Ground Acceleration and their predicted area is obtained.
基金supports of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.51478086 and 11672167)Shandong Province Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.ZR2015EL048)are much appreciated.
文摘The ground motions in the orientation corresponding to the strongest pulse energy impose more serious demand on structures than that of ordinary ground motions.Moreover,not all near-fault ground motion records present distinct pulses in the velocity time histories.In this paper,the parameterized stochastic model of near-fault ground motion with the strongest energy and pulse occurrence probability is suggested,and the Monte Carlo simulation(MSC)and subset simulation are utilized to calculate the first excursion probability of inelastic single-degree-of-freedom(SDOF)systems subjected to these types of near-fault ground motion models,respectively.Firstly,the influences of variation of stochastic pulse model parameters on structural dynamic reliability with different fundamental periods are explored.It is demonstrated that the variation of pulse period,peak ground velocity and pulse waveform number have significant effects on structural reliability and should not be ignored in reliability analysis.Then,subset simulation is verified to be unbiased and more efficient for computing small reliable probabilities of structures compared to MCS.Finally,the reliable probabilities of the SDOF systems with different fundamental periods subjected to impulsive,non-pulse ground motions and the ground motions with pulse occurrence probability are performed,separately.It is indicated that the ground motion model with the pulse occurrence probability can give a rational estimate on structural reliability.The impulsive and ordinary ground motion models may overestimate and underestimate the reliability of structures with fundamental period much less than the mean pulse period of earthquake ground motions.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)(No.41730534)the Laoshan Laboratory Science and Technology Innovation Program(No.LSKJ 202202502)+1 种基金the NSFC(Nos.41976012,42090044)the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences(No.XDB42000000)。
文摘A recent study by Liu et al.(2020)suggested that due to the saturation of equatorially trapped planetary waves with different dynamical types,temporal periods,meridional and baroclinic modes,complex layer structures of vertical velocity shear and hence turbulent mixing could frequently occur in the thermocline of the eastern equatorial Pacific.We investigated the occurrence of the interior turbulent mixing as indicated by shear instabilities,above the Equatorial Undercurrent(EUC)core at three equatorial sites along 140°W,170°W,and 165°E,respectively,based mainly on data from the Tropical Atmosphere and Ocean(TAO)mooring array.We found that turbulent mixing bursts persisted in the thermocline of all three sites.Specifically,the interior turbulent mixing layers(ITMLs)could occur in probability of approximately 68%,53%,and 48%at the three sites,respectively.The overall occurrence probability shows obvious and similar biannual variations at 140°W and 170°W,which is higher in boreal from late summer to winter and lower in spring.Vertically,the ITMLs are primarily located above the EUC core and prevail in deeper(shallower)layers from late summer to winter(spring).Most ITMLs(70%)lasted for hours to 3 days,and a few of them(15%)for more than 7 days.The thicknesses of ITMLs were concentrated between 15 and 55 m.At 165°E,the vertical distribution of ITML occurrence probability was different from that at 140°W and 170°W,as it did not show a preference for depths;the durations of ITMLs are short(also from hours to several days)and their thicknesses were between 5 and 25 m.These properties,particularly the high occurrence probability,and short durations demonstrated the persistence of thermocline mixing in the western to eastern equatorial Pacific thermocline and confirmed the generation mechanism by persistent equatorial waves as well.
基金the project of " Mechanism for Continental Strong Earthquakes and Their Prediction" , one of the projects in the National Basic Scientific Research and Development Program,grant No.G1998040706.
文摘The Zhangjiakou-Penglai fault zone lies in the northern part of North China Plain and extends along the Zhangjiakou-Huailai-Sanhe-Tianjin-Bohai Sea-Penglai-Yantai-North Huanghai Sea line, it is about 900 km long and some 250-km wide in a northwest direction. The 1679 Sanhe-Pinggu M 8.0 and the 1976 Tangshan M7.8 earthquakes occurred in the fault zone. In this paper an analysis of Gutenberg- Richter’s empirical relation and time process of historic and recent earthquakes along the eastern and western segments of the fault zone separated by the 117°line indicates that they obey a Poison process and, hence, a calculation from it yields a cumulative probability of strong earthquake occurrence along the two segments before 2010, i. e. the probability of M6.0 earthquake occurrence is 0.80 along the eastern segment and the probability of M7. 0 earthquake occurrence is 0.76 along the western segment of the fault zone.
基金Project(51278216) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(2013BS010) supported by Henan University of Technology Fund for High-level Talent,China
文摘A systematic method was proposed to estimate the occurrence probability of defective piles(OPDP) from a site according to quality assurance inspection. The OPDP was firstly suggested as the criterion to weight the performance of a pile foundation. Its prior distribution and updating distribution were deduced to follow Beta distributions. To calibrate the OPDP, a dynamic estimation model was established according to the relationships between prior mean and variance and updating mean and variance. Finally, a reliability-control method dealing with uncertainties arising from quality assurance inspection was formalized to judge whether all the bored piles from a site can be accepted. It is exemplified that the OPDP can be substantially improved when more definite prior information and sampling formation become available. For the example studied herein, the Bayesian estimator of updating variance for OPDP is reduced from 0.0037 to 0.0014 for the first inspection, from 0.0014 to 0.0009 for the second inspection, and with less uncertainty by incorporating experience information.
基金funded by earthquake security infrastructure of Tianjin 11th "Five-year Plan" (Tianjin Development and Reforming Office[2009]-1230),the Spark Program of Earthquake Sciences(Grant No.XH13002)
文摘Based on faults surveying and research data in the Tianjin offshore areas,through studying tectonic structure,Quaternary activity,deep structure,stress and strain fields and seismicity in the Tianjin offshore areas,the activity and tectonic features of the faults are determined synthetically.Using seismo-geological data,and the historical and modern seismicity data,the frequency-magnitude relationship model normalized by 500a is established and based on the relationship between the upper limit of maximum magnitude M u and a t/b,the maximum magnitudes of the sea section of the Haihe river fault and the Haiyi fault are calculated.Then Poisson probability model is adopted and the quantitative parameters,such as the maximum magnitude,occurrence probability,recurrence cycle of the faults in the south Tianjin offshore areas in the coming 50～200a,are calculated.
