For all-sky infrared radiance assimilation,the heteroscedasticity and non-Gaussian behavior of observation-minusbackground(OMB)departures are two major difficulties.The Geer–Bauer observation error inflation(GBOEI)sc...For all-sky infrared radiance assimilation,the heteroscedasticity and non-Gaussian behavior of observation-minusbackground(OMB)departures are two major difficulties.The Geer–Bauer observation error inflation(GBOEI)scheme is a universal way to handle the issues.However,it fails to take into account the consistency between model and observation,resulting in unreasonably large observation errors where the simulations agree with the observations.Thus,this study modifies the GBOEI scheme to rationalize the observation errors in such areas.With Advanced Himawari Imager water vapor channel data,the test results show that the normalized OMB with the new observation error approach leads to more Gaussian form than the GBOEI method and constant observation errors.Hence,the assimilation experiments with the new scheme produce better brightness temperature analysis than other methods,and also improve temperature and humidity analysis.Furthermore,a real case experiment of Typhoon Lekima(2019)with the new observation error scheme exhibits more accuracy,especially in track prediction,and substantial error reductions in wind,temperature,and humidity forecasts are also obtained.Meanwhile,5-day 6-hour cycling experiments in the real case of Typhoon Lekima(2019)with the new observation error scheme confirm that the new method does not introduce extra imbalance compared to the experiment with constant observation errors;plus,more accurate typhoon forecasts can also be obtained in both the analysis and forecast,especially in track prediction.展开更多
Temperature （T） and salinity （S） profiles from conductivity-temperature-depth data collected during the Northern South China Sea Open Cruise from August 16 to September 13, 2008 are assimilated using Ensemble Kalm...Temperature （T） and salinity （S） profiles from conductivity-temperature-depth data collected during the Northern South China Sea Open Cruise from August 16 to September 13, 2008 are assimilated using Ensemble Kalman Filter （EnKF）. An adaptive observational error strategy is used to prevent filter from diverging. In the meantime, aiming at the limited improvement in some sites caused by the T and S biases in the model, a T-S constraint scheme is adopted to improve the assimilation performance, where T and S are separately updated at these locations. Validation is performed by comparing assimilated outputs with independent in situ data （satellite remote sensing sea level anomaly （SLA）, the OSCAR velocity product and shipboard ADCP）. The results show that the new EnKF assimilation scheme can significantly reduce the root mean square error （RMSE） of oceanic T and S compared with the control run and traditional EnKF. The system can also improve the simulation of circulations and SLA.展开更多
Previous studies indicate that ENSO predictions are particularly sensitive to the initial conditions in some key areas（socalled ＂sensitive areas＂）. And yet, few studies have quantified improvements in prediction s...Previous studies indicate that ENSO predictions are particularly sensitive to the initial conditions in some key areas（socalled ＂sensitive areas＂）. And yet, few studies have quantified improvements in prediction skill in the context of an optimal observing system. In this study, the impact on prediction skill is explored using an intermediate coupled model in which errors in initial conditions formed to make ENSO predictions are removed in certain areas. Based on ideal observing system simulation experiments, the importance of various observational networks on improvement of El Ni n？o prediction skill is examined. The results indicate that the initial states in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific are important to improve El Ni n？o prediction skill effectively. When removing the initial condition errors in the central equatorial Pacific, ENSO prediction errors can be reduced by 25%. Furthermore, combinations of various subregions are considered to demonstrate the efficiency on ENSO prediction skill. Particularly, seasonally varying observational networks are suggested to improve the prediction skill more effectively. For example, in addition to observing in the central equatorial Pacific and its north throughout the year,increasing observations in the eastern equatorial Pacific during April to October is crucially important, which can improve the prediction accuracy by 62%. These results also demonstrate the effectiveness of the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation approach on detecting sensitive areas for target observations.展开更多
This paper addresses a modified auxiliary model stochastic gradient recursive parameter identification algorithm(M-AM-SGRPIA)for a class of single input single output(SISO)linear output error models with multi-thresho...This paper addresses a modified auxiliary model stochastic gradient recursive parameter identification algorithm(M-AM-SGRPIA)for a class of single input single output(SISO)linear output error models with multi-threshold quantized observations.It proves the convergence of the designed algorithm.A pattern-moving-based system dynamics description method with hybrid metrics is proposed for a kind of practical single input multiple output(SIMO)or SISO nonlinear systems,and a SISO linear output error model with multi-threshold quantized observations is adopted to approximate the unknown system.The system input design is accomplished using the measurement technology of random repeatability test,and the probabilistic characteristic of the explicit metric value is employed to estimate the implicit metric value of the pattern class variable.A modified auxiliary model stochastic gradient recursive algorithm(M-AM-SGRA)is designed to identify the model parameters,and the contraction mapping principle proves its convergence.Two numerical examples are given to demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the achieved identification algorithm.展开更多
Aircraft Meteorological Data Relay(AMDAR)observations have been widely used in numerical weather prediction(NWP)because of its high spatiotemporal resolution.The observational error of AMDAR is influenced by aircraft ...Aircraft Meteorological Data Relay(AMDAR)observations have been widely used in numerical weather prediction(NWP)because of its high spatiotemporal resolution.The observational error of AMDAR is influenced by aircraft flight altitude and atmospheric condition.In this study,the wind speed and altitude dependent observational error of AMDAR is estimated.The statistical results show that the temperature and the observational error in wind speeds slightly decrease as altitude increases,and the observational error in wind speed increases as wind speed increases.Pseudo single AMDAR observation assimilation tests demonstrate that the wind speed and altitude dependent observational error can provide more reasonable analysis increment.Furthermore,to assess the performance of wind speed and altitude dependent observational error on data assimilation and forecasting,two-month 3-hourly cycling data assimilation and forecast experiments based on the Weather Research and Forecasting Model(WRF)and its Data Assimilation system(WRFDA)are performed for the period during 1 September-31 October,2017.The results of the two-month 3-hourly cycling experiments indicate that new observational error improves analysis and forecast of wind field and geo-potential height,and has slight improvements on temperature.The Fractions Skill Score(FSS)of the 6-h accumulated precipitation shows that new wind speed and altitude dependent observational error leads to better precipitation forecast skill than the default observational error in the WRFDA does.展开更多
Initial errors in the tropical Indian Ocean(IO-related initial errors) that are most likely to yield the Spring Prediction Barrier(SPB) for La Ni?a forecasts are explored by using the CESM model.These initial errors c...Initial errors in the tropical Indian Ocean(IO-related initial errors) that are most likely to yield the Spring Prediction Barrier(SPB) for La Ni?a forecasts are explored by using the CESM model.These initial errors can be classified into two types.Type-1 initial error consists of positive sea temperature errors in the western Indian Ocean and negative sea temperature errors in the eastern Indian Ocean,while the spatial structure of Type-2 initial error is nearly opposite.Both kinds of IO-related initial errors induce positive prediction errors of sea temperature in the Pacific Ocean,leading to underprediction of La Nina events.Type-1 initial error in the tropical Indian Ocean mainly influences the SSTA in the tropical Pacific Ocean via atmospheric bridge,leading to the development of localized sea temperature errors in the eastern Pacific Ocean.However,for Type-2 initial error,its positive sea temperature errors in the eastern Indian Ocean can induce downwelling error and influence La Ni?a predictions through an oceanic channel called Indonesian Throughflow.Based on the location of largest SPB-related initial errors,the sensitive area in the tropical Indian Ocean for La Nina predictions is identified.Furthermore,sensitivity experiments show that applying targeted observations in this sensitive area is very useful in decreasing prediction errors of La Nina.Therefore,adopting a targeted observation strategy in the tropical Indian Ocean is a promising approach toward increasing ENSO prediction skill.展开更多
Runoff observation uncertainty is a key unsolved issue in the hydrology community.Existing studies mainly focused on observation uncertainty sources and their impacts on simulation performance,but the impacts on chang...Runoff observation uncertainty is a key unsolved issue in the hydrology community.Existing studies mainly focused on observation uncertainty sources and their impacts on simulation performance,but the impacts on changes of flow regime characteristics remained rare.This study detects temporal changes in 16 flow regime metrics from five main components(i.e.,magnitude,frequency of events,variability,duration,and timing),and evaluates the effects of observation uncertainty on trends of flow regime metrics by adopting a normal distribution error model and using uncertainty width,significant change rate of slopes,coefficient of variation,and degree of deviation.The daily runoff series from 1971 to 2020 at five hydrological stations(i.e.,Huangheyan,Tangnaihai,and Lanzhou in the Yellow River Source Region,Xianyang in the Weihe River Catchment,and Heishiguan in the Yiluo River Catchment)in the water conservation zone of Yellow River are collected for our study.Results showed that:(1)Flow regimes showed significant increases in the low flow magnitude,and significant decreases in the high and average flow magnitude,variability and duration at all the five stations.The magnitude,variability and duration metrics decreased significantly,and the frequency metrics increased significantly at Heishiguan.The low flow magnitude and timing metrics increased significantly,while the high flow magnitude,frequency and variability metrics decreased significantly at Xianyang.The low flow magnitude and high flow timing metrics increased significantly,while the low flow frequency,high flow magnitude and variability metrics decreased significantly in the Yellow River Source Region.(2)Observation uncertainty remarkably impacted the changes of 28.75% of total flow regime metrics at all the stations.The trends of 11.25% of total metrics changed from significance to insignificance,while those of 17.5% of total metrics changed from insignificance to significance.For the rest metrics,the trends remained the same,i.e.,significant(18.75%)and insignificant(52.50%)trends.(3)Observation uncertainty had the greatest impacts on the frequency metrics,especially at Xianyang,followed by duration,variability,timing and magnitude metrics.展开更多
In operational data assimilation systems, observation-error covariance matrices are commonly assumed to be diagonal.However, inter-channel and spatial observation-error correlations are inevitable for satellite radian...In operational data assimilation systems, observation-error covariance matrices are commonly assumed to be diagonal.However, inter-channel and spatial observation-error correlations are inevitable for satellite radiances. The observation errors of the Microwave Temperature Sounder(MWTS) and Microwave Humidity Sounder(MWHS) onboard the FengYun-3A(FY-3A) and FY-3B satellites are empirically assigned and considered to be uncorrelated when they are assimilated into the WRF model's Community Variational Data Assimilation System(WRFDA). To assimilate MWTS and MWHS measurements optimally, a good characterization of their observation errors is necessary. In this study, background and analysis residuals were used to diagnose the correlated observation-error characteristics of the MWTS and MWHS. It was found that the error standard deviations of the MWTS and MWHS were less than the values used in the WRFDA. MWTS had small inter-channel errors, while MWHS had significant inter-channel errors. The horizontal correlation length scales of MWTS and MWHS were about 120 and 60 km, respectively. A comparison between the diagnosis for instruments onboard the two satellites showed that the observation-error characteristics of the MWTS or MWHS were different when they were onboard different satellites. In addition, it was found that the error statistics were dependent on latitude and scan positions.The forecast experiments showed that using a modified thinning scheme based on diagnosed statistics can improve forecast accuracy.展开更多
Aiming at the Four-Dimensional Variation source term inversion algorithm proposed earlier,the observation error regularization factor is introduced to improve the prediction accuracy of the diffusion model,and an impr...Aiming at the Four-Dimensional Variation source term inversion algorithm proposed earlier,the observation error regularization factor is introduced to improve the prediction accuracy of the diffusion model,and an improved Four-Dimensional Variation source term inversion algorithm with observation error regularization(OER-4DVAR STI model)is formed.Firstly,by constructing the inversion process and basic model of OER-4DVAR STI model,its basic principle and logical structure are studied.Secondly,the observation error regularization factor estimation method based on Bayesian optimization is proposed,and the error factor is separated and optimized by two parameters:error statistical time and deviation degree.Finally,the scientific,feasible and advanced nature of the OER-4DVAR STI model are verified by numerical simulation and tracer test data.The experimental results show that OER-4DVAR STI model can better reverse calculate the hazard source term information under the conditions of high atmospheric stability and flat underlying surface.Compared with the previous inversion algorithm,the source intensity estimation accuracy of OER-4DVAR STI model is improved by about 46.97%,and the source location estimation accuracy is improved by about 26.72%.展开更多
In this paper, a regression method of estimation has been used to derive the mean estimate of the survey variable using simple random sampling without replacement in the presence of observational errors. Two covariate...In this paper, a regression method of estimation has been used to derive the mean estimate of the survey variable using simple random sampling without replacement in the presence of observational errors. Two covariates were used and a case where the observational errors were in both the survey variable and the covariates was considered. The inclusion of observational errors was due to the fact that data collected through surveys are often not free from errors that occur during observation. These errors can occur due to over-reporting, under-reporting, memory failure by the respondents or use of imprecise tools of data collection. The expression of mean squared error (MSE) based on the obtained estimator has been derived to the first degree of approximation. The results of a simulation study show that the derived modified regression mean estimator under observational errors is more efficient than the mean per unit estimator and some other existing estimators. The proposed estimator can therefore be used in estimating a finite population mean, while considering observational errors that may occur during a study.展开更多
The stochastic convergence of the cubature Kalmanfilter with intermittent observations （CKFI） for general nonlinearstochastic systems is investigated. The Bernoulli distributed ran-dom variable is employed to descri...The stochastic convergence of the cubature Kalmanfilter with intermittent observations （CKFI） for general nonlinearstochastic systems is investigated. The Bernoulli distributed ran-dom variable is employed to describe the phenomenon of intermit-tent observations. According to the cubature sample principle, theestimation error and the error covariance matrix （ECM） of CKFIare derived by Taylor series expansion, respectively. Afterwards, itis theoretically proved that the ECM will be bounded if the obser-vation arrival probability exceeds a critical minimum observationarrival probability. Meanwhile, under proper assumption corre-sponding with real engineering situations, the stochastic stabilityof the estimation error can be guaranteed when the initial estima-tion error and the stochastic noise terms are sufficiently small. Thetheoretical conclusions are verified by numerical simulations fortwo illustrative examples; also by evaluating the tracking perfor-mance of the optical-electric target tracking system implementedby CKFI and unscented Kalman filter with intermittent observa-tions （UKFI） separately, it is demonstrated that the proposed CKFIslightly outperforms the UKFI with respect to tracking accuracy aswell as real time performance.展开更多
The uncertainty of observers＇ positions can lead to significantly degrading in source localization accuracy. This pa-per proposes a method of using self-location for calibrating the positions of observer stations in ...The uncertainty of observers＇ positions can lead to significantly degrading in source localization accuracy. This pa-per proposes a method of using self-location for calibrating the positions of observer stations in source localization to reduce the errors of the observer positions and improve the accuracy of the source localization. The relative distance measurements of the two coordinative observers are used for the linear minimum mean square error （LMMSE） estimator. The results of computer si-mulations prove the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method. With the general estimation errors of observers＇ positions, the MSE of the source localization with self-location calibration, which is significantly lower than that without self-location calibra-tion, is approximating to the Cramer-Rao lower bound （CRLB）.展开更多
This paper based on the essay [1], studies in case that replicated observations are available in some experimental points., the parameters estimation of one dimensional linear errors-in-variables (EV) models. Asymptot...This paper based on the essay [1], studies in case that replicated observations are available in some experimental points., the parameters estimation of one dimensional linear errors-in-variables (EV) models. Asymptotic normality is established.展开更多
Using the outputs from CMCC-CM in CMIP5 experiments,the authors identified sensitive areas for targeted observations in ENSO forecasting from the perspective of the initial error growth(IEG)method and the particle fil...Using the outputs from CMCC-CM in CMIP5 experiments,the authors identified sensitive areas for targeted observations in ENSO forecasting from the perspective of the initial error growth(IEG)method and the particle filter(PF)method.Results showed that the PF targets areas over the central-eastern equatorial Pacific,while the sensitive areas determined by the IEG method are slightly to the east of the former.Although a small part of the areas targeted by the IEG method also lie in the southeast equatorial Pacific,this does not affect the large-scale overlapping of the sensitive areas determined by these two methods in the eastern equatorial Pacific.Therefore,sensitive areas determined by the two methods are mutually supportive.When considering the uncertainty of methods for determining sensitive areas in realistic targeted observation,it is more reasonable to choose the above overlapping areas as sensitive areas for ENSO forecasting.This result provides scientific guidance for how to better determine sensitive areas for ENSO forecasting.展开更多
In this paper,the fixed-time time-varying formation of heterogeneous multi-agent systems(MASs) based on tracking error observer under denial-of-service(DoS) attacks is investigated.Firstly,the dynamic pinning strategy...In this paper,the fixed-time time-varying formation of heterogeneous multi-agent systems(MASs) based on tracking error observer under denial-of-service(DoS) attacks is investigated.Firstly,the dynamic pinning strategy is used to reconstruct the communication channel for the system that suffers from DoS attacks to prevent the discontinuous transmission information of the communication network from affecting MASs formation.Then,considering that the leader state is not available to each follower under DoS attacks,a fixed-time distributed observer without velocity information is constructed to estimate the tracking error between followers and the leader.Finally,adaptive radial basis function neural network(RBFNN) is used to approximate the unknown ensemble disturbances in the system,and the fixed-time time-varying formation scheme is designed with the constructed observer.The effectiveness of the proposed control algorithm is demonstrated by the numerical simulation.展开更多
A lower bound to errors of measuring object position is constructed as a function of parameters of a monocular computer vision system (CVS) as well as of observation conditions and a shape of an observed marker. This ...A lower bound to errors of measuring object position is constructed as a function of parameters of a monocular computer vision system (CVS) as well as of observation conditions and a shape of an observed marker. This bound justifies the specification of the CVS parameters and allows us to formulate constraints for an object trajectory based on required measurement accuracy. For making the measurement, the boundaries of marker image are used.展开更多
This work analyzes the quality of crustal tilt and strain observations during 2014, which were acquired from 269 sets of ground tiltmeters and 212 sets of strainmeters. In terms of data quality, the water tube tiltmet...This work analyzes the quality of crustal tilt and strain observations during 2014, which were acquired from 269 sets of ground tiltmeters and 212 sets of strainmeters. In terms of data quality, the water tube tiltmeters presented the highest rate of excellent quality,approximately 91%, and the pendulum tiltmeters and ground strainmeters yielded rates of81% and 78%, respectively. This means that a total of 380 sets of instruments produced high-quality observational data suitable for scientific investigations and analyses.展开更多
In this paper we consider the finite element approximation to an elliptic optimal control problem with boundary observations in H^(1/2)(Γ).This problem is motivated by certain applications in optimal control of semic...In this paper we consider the finite element approximation to an elliptic optimal control problem with boundary observations in H^(1/2)(Γ).This problem is motivated by certain applications in optimal control of semiconductor devices where the discrepancy of the current density on the boundary to the target one is the objective to be minimized.The observation in H^(1/2)(Γ)is realized through a Neumann-to-Dirichlet mapping which facilitates the theoretical and numerical analysis.A priori error estimate for the optimal control is derived based on the variational control discretization,whereas the state and adjoint state variables are approximated by piecewise linear and continuous finite elements.Second order convergence rate for the optimal control is theoretically proved and verified by numerical results.展开更多
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42192553 and 41805071)the Postgraduate Research&Practice Innovation Program of Jiangsu Province(Grant No.KYCX24_1413)the High Performance Computing Center of Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology for their support of this work。
文摘For all-sky infrared radiance assimilation,the heteroscedasticity and non-Gaussian behavior of observation-minusbackground(OMB)departures are two major difficulties.The Geer–Bauer observation error inflation(GBOEI)scheme is a universal way to handle the issues.However,it fails to take into account the consistency between model and observation,resulting in unreasonably large observation errors where the simulations agree with the observations.Thus,this study modifies the GBOEI scheme to rationalize the observation errors in such areas.With Advanced Himawari Imager water vapor channel data,the test results show that the normalized OMB with the new observation error approach leads to more Gaussian form than the GBOEI method and constant observation errors.Hence,the assimilation experiments with the new scheme produce better brightness temperature analysis than other methods,and also improve temperature and humidity analysis.Furthermore,a real case experiment of Typhoon Lekima(2019)with the new observation error scheme exhibits more accuracy,especially in track prediction,and substantial error reductions in wind,temperature,and humidity forecasts are also obtained.Meanwhile,5-day 6-hour cycling experiments in the real case of Typhoon Lekima(2019)with the new observation error scheme confirm that the new method does not introduce extra imbalance compared to the experiment with constant observation errors;plus,more accurate typhoon forecasts can also be obtained in both the analysis and forecast,especially in track prediction.
基金The Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences under contract No.XDA10010405the Promgram of Guangdong Province Department of Science and Technology No.2012A032100004+1 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract Nos 41476012,41521005 and 41406131the Knowledge Innovation Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences under contract Nos SQ201001 and SQ201205
文摘Temperature （T） and salinity （S） profiles from conductivity-temperature-depth data collected during the Northern South China Sea Open Cruise from August 16 to September 13, 2008 are assimilated using Ensemble Kalman Filter （EnKF）. An adaptive observational error strategy is used to prevent filter from diverging. In the meantime, aiming at the limited improvement in some sites caused by the T and S biases in the model, a T-S constraint scheme is adopted to improve the assimilation performance, where T and S are separately updated at these locations. Validation is performed by comparing assimilated outputs with independent in situ data （satellite remote sensing sea level anomaly （SLA）, the OSCAR velocity product and shipboard ADCP）. The results show that the new EnKF assimilation scheme can significantly reduce the root mean square error （RMSE） of oceanic T and S compared with the control run and traditional EnKF. The system can also improve the simulation of circulations and SLA.
基金supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. XDA19060102)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41475101, 41690122, 41690120 and 41421005)the National Programme on Global Change and Air–Sea Interaction Interaction (Grant Nos. GASI-IPOVAI-06 and GASI-IPOVAI-01-01)
文摘Previous studies indicate that ENSO predictions are particularly sensitive to the initial conditions in some key areas（socalled ＂sensitive areas＂）. And yet, few studies have quantified improvements in prediction skill in the context of an optimal observing system. In this study, the impact on prediction skill is explored using an intermediate coupled model in which errors in initial conditions formed to make ENSO predictions are removed in certain areas. Based on ideal observing system simulation experiments, the importance of various observational networks on improvement of El Ni n？o prediction skill is examined. The results indicate that the initial states in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific are important to improve El Ni n？o prediction skill effectively. When removing the initial condition errors in the central equatorial Pacific, ENSO prediction errors can be reduced by 25%. Furthermore, combinations of various subregions are considered to demonstrate the efficiency on ENSO prediction skill. Particularly, seasonally varying observational networks are suggested to improve the prediction skill more effectively. For example, in addition to observing in the central equatorial Pacific and its north throughout the year,increasing observations in the eastern equatorial Pacific during April to October is crucially important, which can improve the prediction accuracy by 62%. These results also demonstrate the effectiveness of the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation approach on detecting sensitive areas for target observations.
基金This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(62076025).
文摘This paper addresses a modified auxiliary model stochastic gradient recursive parameter identification algorithm(M-AM-SGRPIA)for a class of single input single output(SISO)linear output error models with multi-threshold quantized observations.It proves the convergence of the designed algorithm.A pattern-moving-based system dynamics description method with hybrid metrics is proposed for a kind of practical single input multiple output(SIMO)or SISO nonlinear systems,and a SISO linear output error model with multi-threshold quantized observations is adopted to approximate the unknown system.The system input design is accomplished using the measurement technology of random repeatability test,and the probabilistic characteristic of the explicit metric value is employed to estimate the implicit metric value of the pattern class variable.A modified auxiliary model stochastic gradient recursive algorithm(M-AM-SGRA)is designed to identify the model parameters,and the contraction mapping principle proves its convergence.Two numerical examples are given to demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the achieved identification algorithm.
基金National Key R&D Program of China(2017YFC1502102,2018YFC1506802)National Natural Science Foundation of China(41675102)。
文摘Aircraft Meteorological Data Relay(AMDAR)observations have been widely used in numerical weather prediction(NWP)because of its high spatiotemporal resolution.The observational error of AMDAR is influenced by aircraft flight altitude and atmospheric condition.In this study,the wind speed and altitude dependent observational error of AMDAR is estimated.The statistical results show that the temperature and the observational error in wind speeds slightly decrease as altitude increases,and the observational error in wind speed increases as wind speed increases.Pseudo single AMDAR observation assimilation tests demonstrate that the wind speed and altitude dependent observational error can provide more reasonable analysis increment.Furthermore,to assess the performance of wind speed and altitude dependent observational error on data assimilation and forecasting,two-month 3-hourly cycling data assimilation and forecast experiments based on the Weather Research and Forecasting Model(WRF)and its Data Assimilation system(WRFDA)are performed for the period during 1 September-31 October,2017.The results of the two-month 3-hourly cycling experiments indicate that new observational error improves analysis and forecast of wind field and geo-potential height,and has slight improvements on temperature.The Fractions Skill Score(FSS)of the 6-h accumulated precipitation shows that new wind speed and altitude dependent observational error leads to better precipitation forecast skill than the default observational error in the WRFDA does.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (Grant No.2019YFC1408004)together with the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.41930971,41805069,41606031)the Office of China Postdoctoral Council (OCPC) under Award Number 20190003。
文摘Initial errors in the tropical Indian Ocean(IO-related initial errors) that are most likely to yield the Spring Prediction Barrier(SPB) for La Ni?a forecasts are explored by using the CESM model.These initial errors can be classified into two types.Type-1 initial error consists of positive sea temperature errors in the western Indian Ocean and negative sea temperature errors in the eastern Indian Ocean,while the spatial structure of Type-2 initial error is nearly opposite.Both kinds of IO-related initial errors induce positive prediction errors of sea temperature in the Pacific Ocean,leading to underprediction of La Nina events.Type-1 initial error in the tropical Indian Ocean mainly influences the SSTA in the tropical Pacific Ocean via atmospheric bridge,leading to the development of localized sea temperature errors in the eastern Pacific Ocean.However,for Type-2 initial error,its positive sea temperature errors in the eastern Indian Ocean can induce downwelling error and influence La Ni?a predictions through an oceanic channel called Indonesian Throughflow.Based on the location of largest SPB-related initial errors,the sensitive area in the tropical Indian Ocean for La Nina predictions is identified.Furthermore,sensitivity experiments show that applying targeted observations in this sensitive area is very useful in decreasing prediction errors of La Nina.Therefore,adopting a targeted observation strategy in the tropical Indian Ocean is a promising approach toward increasing ENSO prediction skill.
基金National Key Research and Development Program of China,No.2021YFC3201102National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.42071041,No.42171047。
文摘Runoff observation uncertainty is a key unsolved issue in the hydrology community.Existing studies mainly focused on observation uncertainty sources and their impacts on simulation performance,but the impacts on changes of flow regime characteristics remained rare.This study detects temporal changes in 16 flow regime metrics from five main components(i.e.,magnitude,frequency of events,variability,duration,and timing),and evaluates the effects of observation uncertainty on trends of flow regime metrics by adopting a normal distribution error model and using uncertainty width,significant change rate of slopes,coefficient of variation,and degree of deviation.The daily runoff series from 1971 to 2020 at five hydrological stations(i.e.,Huangheyan,Tangnaihai,and Lanzhou in the Yellow River Source Region,Xianyang in the Weihe River Catchment,and Heishiguan in the Yiluo River Catchment)in the water conservation zone of Yellow River are collected for our study.Results showed that:(1)Flow regimes showed significant increases in the low flow magnitude,and significant decreases in the high and average flow magnitude,variability and duration at all the five stations.The magnitude,variability and duration metrics decreased significantly,and the frequency metrics increased significantly at Heishiguan.The low flow magnitude and timing metrics increased significantly,while the high flow magnitude,frequency and variability metrics decreased significantly at Xianyang.The low flow magnitude and high flow timing metrics increased significantly,while the low flow frequency,high flow magnitude and variability metrics decreased significantly in the Yellow River Source Region.(2)Observation uncertainty remarkably impacted the changes of 28.75% of total flow regime metrics at all the stations.The trends of 11.25% of total metrics changed from significance to insignificance,while those of 17.5% of total metrics changed from insignificance to significance.For the rest metrics,the trends remained the same,i.e.,significant(18.75%)and insignificant(52.50%)trends.(3)Observation uncertainty had the greatest impacts on the frequency metrics,especially at Xianyang,followed by duration,variability,timing and magnitude metrics.
基金funded by the National Basic Research (973) Program of China (Grant No. 2015CB452802)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41230421, 41605075, and 41675058)
文摘In operational data assimilation systems, observation-error covariance matrices are commonly assumed to be diagonal.However, inter-channel and spatial observation-error correlations are inevitable for satellite radiances. The observation errors of the Microwave Temperature Sounder(MWTS) and Microwave Humidity Sounder(MWHS) onboard the FengYun-3A(FY-3A) and FY-3B satellites are empirically assigned and considered to be uncorrelated when they are assimilated into the WRF model's Community Variational Data Assimilation System(WRFDA). To assimilate MWTS and MWHS measurements optimally, a good characterization of their observation errors is necessary. In this study, background and analysis residuals were used to diagnose the correlated observation-error characteristics of the MWTS and MWHS. It was found that the error standard deviations of the MWTS and MWHS were less than the values used in the WRFDA. MWTS had small inter-channel errors, while MWHS had significant inter-channel errors. The horizontal correlation length scales of MWTS and MWHS were about 120 and 60 km, respectively. A comparison between the diagnosis for instruments onboard the two satellites showed that the observation-error characteristics of the MWTS or MWHS were different when they were onboard different satellites. In addition, it was found that the error statistics were dependent on latitude and scan positions.The forecast experiments showed that using a modified thinning scheme based on diagnosed statistics can improve forecast accuracy.
基金Ministry of Science and Technology of the People’s Republic of China for its support and guidance(Grant No.2018YFC0214100)。
文摘Aiming at the Four-Dimensional Variation source term inversion algorithm proposed earlier,the observation error regularization factor is introduced to improve the prediction accuracy of the diffusion model,and an improved Four-Dimensional Variation source term inversion algorithm with observation error regularization(OER-4DVAR STI model)is formed.Firstly,by constructing the inversion process and basic model of OER-4DVAR STI model,its basic principle and logical structure are studied.Secondly,the observation error regularization factor estimation method based on Bayesian optimization is proposed,and the error factor is separated and optimized by two parameters:error statistical time and deviation degree.Finally,the scientific,feasible and advanced nature of the OER-4DVAR STI model are verified by numerical simulation and tracer test data.The experimental results show that OER-4DVAR STI model can better reverse calculate the hazard source term information under the conditions of high atmospheric stability and flat underlying surface.Compared with the previous inversion algorithm,the source intensity estimation accuracy of OER-4DVAR STI model is improved by about 46.97%,and the source location estimation accuracy is improved by about 26.72%.
文摘In this paper, a regression method of estimation has been used to derive the mean estimate of the survey variable using simple random sampling without replacement in the presence of observational errors. Two covariates were used and a case where the observational errors were in both the survey variable and the covariates was considered. The inclusion of observational errors was due to the fact that data collected through surveys are often not free from errors that occur during observation. These errors can occur due to over-reporting, under-reporting, memory failure by the respondents or use of imprecise tools of data collection. The expression of mean squared error (MSE) based on the obtained estimator has been derived to the first degree of approximation. The results of a simulation study show that the derived modified regression mean estimator under observational errors is more efficient than the mean per unit estimator and some other existing estimators. The proposed estimator can therefore be used in estimating a finite population mean, while considering observational errors that may occur during a study.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(6110418661273076)
文摘The stochastic convergence of the cubature Kalmanfilter with intermittent observations （CKFI） for general nonlinearstochastic systems is investigated. The Bernoulli distributed ran-dom variable is employed to describe the phenomenon of intermit-tent observations. According to the cubature sample principle, theestimation error and the error covariance matrix （ECM） of CKFIare derived by Taylor series expansion, respectively. Afterwards, itis theoretically proved that the ECM will be bounded if the obser-vation arrival probability exceeds a critical minimum observationarrival probability. Meanwhile, under proper assumption corre-sponding with real engineering situations, the stochastic stabilityof the estimation error can be guaranteed when the initial estima-tion error and the stochastic noise terms are sufficiently small. Thetheoretical conclusions are verified by numerical simulations fortwo illustrative examples; also by evaluating the tracking perfor-mance of the optical-electric target tracking system implementedby CKFI and unscented Kalman filter with intermittent observa-tions （UKFI） separately, it is demonstrated that the proposed CKFIslightly outperforms the UKFI with respect to tracking accuracy aswell as real time performance.
基金supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(ZYGX2009J016)
文摘The uncertainty of observers＇ positions can lead to significantly degrading in source localization accuracy. This pa-per proposes a method of using self-location for calibrating the positions of observer stations in source localization to reduce the errors of the observer positions and improve the accuracy of the source localization. The relative distance measurements of the two coordinative observers are used for the linear minimum mean square error （LMMSE） estimator. The results of computer si-mulations prove the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method. With the general estimation errors of observers＇ positions, the MSE of the source localization with self-location calibration, which is significantly lower than that without self-location calibra-tion, is approximating to the Cramer-Rao lower bound （CRLB）.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 19631040)
文摘This paper based on the essay [1], studies in case that replicated observations are available in some experimental points., the parameters estimation of one dimensional linear errors-in-variables (EV) models. Asymptotic normality is established.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China [grant numbers 41930971,41775069,and 41975076]。
文摘Using the outputs from CMCC-CM in CMIP5 experiments,the authors identified sensitive areas for targeted observations in ENSO forecasting from the perspective of the initial error growth(IEG)method and the particle filter(PF)method.Results showed that the PF targets areas over the central-eastern equatorial Pacific,while the sensitive areas determined by the IEG method are slightly to the east of the former.Although a small part of the areas targeted by the IEG method also lie in the southeast equatorial Pacific,this does not affect the large-scale overlapping of the sensitive areas determined by these two methods in the eastern equatorial Pacific.Therefore,sensitive areas determined by the two methods are mutually supportive.When considering the uncertainty of methods for determining sensitive areas in realistic targeted observation,it is more reasonable to choose the above overlapping areas as sensitive areas for ENSO forecasting.This result provides scientific guidance for how to better determine sensitive areas for ENSO forecasting.
文摘In this paper,the fixed-time time-varying formation of heterogeneous multi-agent systems(MASs) based on tracking error observer under denial-of-service(DoS) attacks is investigated.Firstly,the dynamic pinning strategy is used to reconstruct the communication channel for the system that suffers from DoS attacks to prevent the discontinuous transmission information of the communication network from affecting MASs formation.Then,considering that the leader state is not available to each follower under DoS attacks,a fixed-time distributed observer without velocity information is constructed to estimate the tracking error between followers and the leader.Finally,adaptive radial basis function neural network(RBFNN) is used to approximate the unknown ensemble disturbances in the system,and the fixed-time time-varying formation scheme is designed with the constructed observer.The effectiveness of the proposed control algorithm is demonstrated by the numerical simulation.
文摘A lower bound to errors of measuring object position is constructed as a function of parameters of a monocular computer vision system (CVS) as well as of observation conditions and a shape of an observed marker. This bound justifies the specification of the CVS parameters and allows us to formulate constraints for an object trajectory based on required measurement accuracy. For making the measurement, the boundaries of marker image are used.
基金supported by Special Foundation of Earthquake Science(201408006)Director Foundation of Institute of Seismology,China Earthquake Administration(201516214)
文摘This work analyzes the quality of crustal tilt and strain observations during 2014, which were acquired from 269 sets of ground tiltmeters and 212 sets of strainmeters. In terms of data quality, the water tube tiltmeters presented the highest rate of excellent quality,approximately 91%, and the pendulum tiltmeters and ground strainmeters yielded rates of81% and 78%, respectively. This means that a total of 380 sets of instruments produced high-quality observational data suitable for scientific investigations and analyses.
基金supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.XDB 41000000)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.12071468).
文摘In this paper we consider the finite element approximation to an elliptic optimal control problem with boundary observations in H^(1/2)(Γ).This problem is motivated by certain applications in optimal control of semiconductor devices where the discrepancy of the current density on the boundary to the target one is the objective to be minimized.The observation in H^(1/2)(Γ)is realized through a Neumann-to-Dirichlet mapping which facilitates the theoretical and numerical analysis.A priori error estimate for the optimal control is derived based on the variational control discretization,whereas the state and adjoint state variables are approximated by piecewise linear and continuous finite elements.Second order convergence rate for the optimal control is theoretically proved and verified by numerical results.
