该研究利用1961—2015年贵州省逐日雨凇观测资料,NCEP/NCAR海平面气压场和500 h Pa高度场逐月再分析资料,以及NOAA ERSSTV4逐月海表温度资料,初步构建了贵州省冬季雨凇灾害预测模型。模型主要量化为以下指标:雨凇灾害偏强/弱时,对应500 ...该研究利用1961—2015年贵州省逐日雨凇观测资料,NCEP/NCAR海平面气压场和500 h Pa高度场逐月再分析资料,以及NOAA ERSSTV4逐月海表温度资料,初步构建了贵州省冬季雨凇灾害预测模型。模型主要量化为以下指标:雨凇灾害偏强/弱时,对应500 h Pa位势高度异常场正/负(50~70°N、40~80°E)和负/正(20~40°N、60~100°E),对应海平面气压异常场正/负(45~65°N、40~80°E),对应前期秋季北大西洋关键区(25~35°N,60~40°W)的海表温度异常为负/正异常。且强雨凇年时,该模型的可信度更高。利用该模型,本研究展开了对2016年冬季雨凇强度的试报,试报结果为强度偏弱,与实况场吻合,表明该模型有一定的参考价值。展开更多
Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) was a-dopted in the present paper tostudy the of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific, Indian Ocean and related aircirculation. The results show that on the season...Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) was a-dopted in the present paper tostudy the of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific, Indian Ocean and related aircirculation. The results show that on the seasonal time scale, El Nino events can be divided intotwo types: the east one and the middle one. For the middle type the SST variations appear contrarilyin the tropical Pacific and Indian O-cean, and the anomalous SST decreases in the east butincreases in the northwest and south-middle of the tropical Indian O-cean, specially in the east ofMadagascar Island. And vice versa. On annual time scale, when the Asian continent high gets strongerand the deepened Aleutian low shifts southeastward, both of them trigger an onset of the El Ninoevents. Contrarily, the La Nina events take place. On decadal time scale, there are two basic modesof air-sea system over the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean. Firstly, when the Asian continent highgets stronger and deepened Aleutian low shifts southeastward, the anomalous SST increases in themiddle and east of the proical Pacific, extending to the subtropical regions, and so in most of thetropical Indian Ocean, specially in the northeast of Madagascar Island and nearby. And vice versa.Secondly, when the Asian continent high gets stronger in the north and the Aleutian low decreasesfixedly or even disappears, the anomalous SST decreases slightly in middle of the tropical Pacificand the temperate northern Pacific but increases weakly in other regions, the anomalous SSTincreases in the south but decreases in the north of the tropical Indian O-cean, and the SSTincreases more obviously in southeast of Madagascar Island. And vice versa. The linear trends ofglob- al warming seems to play a certain role for the El Nino onsets.展开更多
文摘该研究利用1961—2015年贵州省逐日雨凇观测资料,NCEP/NCAR海平面气压场和500 h Pa高度场逐月再分析资料,以及NOAA ERSSTV4逐月海表温度资料,初步构建了贵州省冬季雨凇灾害预测模型。模型主要量化为以下指标:雨凇灾害偏强/弱时,对应500 h Pa位势高度异常场正/负(50~70°N、40~80°E)和负/正(20~40°N、60~100°E),对应海平面气压异常场正/负(45~65°N、40~80°E),对应前期秋季北大西洋关键区(25~35°N,60~40°W)的海表温度异常为负/正异常。且强雨凇年时,该模型的可信度更高。利用该模型,本研究展开了对2016年冬季雨凇强度的试报,试报结果为强度偏弱,与实况场吻合,表明该模型有一定的参考价值。
文摘Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) was a-dopted in the present paper tostudy the of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific, Indian Ocean and related aircirculation. The results show that on the seasonal time scale, El Nino events can be divided intotwo types: the east one and the middle one. For the middle type the SST variations appear contrarilyin the tropical Pacific and Indian O-cean, and the anomalous SST decreases in the east butincreases in the northwest and south-middle of the tropical Indian O-cean, specially in the east ofMadagascar Island. And vice versa. On annual time scale, when the Asian continent high gets strongerand the deepened Aleutian low shifts southeastward, both of them trigger an onset of the El Ninoevents. Contrarily, the La Nina events take place. On decadal time scale, there are two basic modesof air-sea system over the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean. Firstly, when the Asian continent highgets stronger and deepened Aleutian low shifts southeastward, the anomalous SST increases in themiddle and east of the proical Pacific, extending to the subtropical regions, and so in most of thetropical Indian Ocean, specially in the northeast of Madagascar Island and nearby. And vice versa.Secondly, when the Asian continent high gets stronger in the north and the Aleutian low decreasesfixedly or even disappears, the anomalous SST decreases slightly in middle of the tropical Pacificand the temperate northern Pacific but increases weakly in other regions, the anomalous SSTincreases in the south but decreases in the north of the tropical Indian O-cean, and the SSTincreases more obviously in southeast of Madagascar Island. And vice versa. The linear trends ofglob- al warming seems to play a certain role for the El Nino onsets.
