Flume experiments play a pivotal role in studying wave propagation,with wave elements typically assumed to remain constant in the perpendicular direction.However,evident cross wave phenomena were observed within flume...Flume experiments play a pivotal role in studying wave propagation,with wave elements typically assumed to remain constant in the perpendicular direction.However,evident cross wave phenomena were observed within flumes under certain conditions.This paper presents new analytical solutions for both primary and cross waves on double shoals in a flume via linear shallow-water equations,which may be used to idealize dynamic experimental configurations of coral reefs.The primary waves on double shoals are described by the associated Legendre functions,whereas the ultimate solutions are derived by considering the incident and reflected waves in front of a bathymetry and the transmitted waves positioned behind it.The effects of the angular frequency and topographic parameters on the primary waves are subsequently analyzed.Cross waves on double shoals constitute a type of topographically trapped wave whose solutions are formulated by combining the first and second types of the associated Legendre functions.The angular frequency is not only determined by the wavenumber but also influenced by the topographic parameters.Numerical experiments are conducted to investigate the generation mechanism of cross waves.The consistency between the numerical results and analytical solutions confirms the validity of the new analytical framework of cross waves on double shoals.展开更多
Most of the existing studies on tunnel blast wave are based on spherical or grouped charges, however,conventional weapons are mostly cylindrical rather than spherical. In order to analyze the impact of cylindrical cha...Most of the existing studies on tunnel blast wave are based on spherical or grouped charges, however,conventional weapons are mostly cylindrical rather than spherical. In order to analyze the impact of cylindrical charges on the tunnel blast wave loads and to develop a quantitative calculation method, this study carried out experimental and numerical research. Initially, external explosion experiments were conducted using both 35 kg spherical charges and cylindrical charges with aspect ratio of 4.8 at two different distances from the tunnel entrance. Comparative analysis of the blast wave parameters in the tunnel revealed that the explosive equivalent of the cylindrical charges was significantly higher than that of the spherical charges. To address this, an equivalent coefficient κ based on the spherical charges was proposed for the cylindrical charges. Subsequently, numerical simulations were conducted for the experimental conditions, and the numerical simulation results match the experiments well. Through numerical calculations, the reliability of the equivalent coefficient κ under the experimental conditions was verified, and comparison analysis indicated that the explosion energy of cylindrical charges spreads more radially, resulting in more explosion energy entering the tunnel, which is the fundamental reason for the increase in tunnel blast wave loads. Additionally, analyzing the explosion energy ratio entering the tunnel is an effective method for calculating the equivalent coefficient κ. Finally, through more than one hundred sets of numerical calculation results, the impact of the proportional distance λ and the ratio of charge mass to the tunnel cross-section dimension φ on the equivalence coefficients κ was investigated. An empirical formula for the equivalence coefficient κ was derived through fitting, and the accuracy of the formula was validated through literature experimental results. The research findings of this paper will provide valuable guidance for the calculation of blast wave loads in tunnel.展开更多
The landfall process of typhoon Haitang which affected East China seriously was simulated by using the MM5 model and the track, intensity, precipitation and structure of typhoon were successfully reproduced. Then thro...The landfall process of typhoon Haitang which affected East China seriously was simulated by using the MM5 model and the track, intensity, precipitation and structure of typhoon were successfully reproduced. Then through the sensitive test, the effects of terrain were analyzed Results show that the irregular track during the period of typhoon passing through Taiwan and later landfalling at Fujian was in relation to the occurring and developing of orthographic impressed depression. The amount of rainfall was enhanced more than one time and the strength of typhoon was weakened 4 to 5 hPa. It is found that the effect of terrain on the structure of typhoon is limited at low level and is backward in space compared with the one at high level. In addition, the phenomenon that the equivalent temperature in the typhoon's moving direction inclines to the west on the eye of landfall may be concerned with the terrain.展开更多
Due to global warming, the general circulation, underlying surfaces characteristics, and geophysical and meteorological elements all show evident secular trends. This paper points out that when calculating the correla...Due to global warming, the general circulation, underlying surfaces characteristics, and geophysical and meteorological elements all show evident secular trends. This paper points out that when calculating the correlation of two variables containing their own obvious secular trends, the interannual correlation characteristics between the two variables may be distorted (overestimated or underestimated). Numerical experiments in this paper show that if two variables have opposite secular trends, the correlation coefficient between the two variables is reduced (the positive correlation is underestimated, or the negative correlation is overestimated); and if the two variables have the same sign of secular trends, the correlation coefficient between the two variables is increased (the positive correlation is overestimated, or the negative correlation is underestimated). Numerical experiments also suggest that the effect of secular trends on the interannual correlation of the two variables is interchangeable, that is to say, as long as the values of the two trends are not changed, the two variables interchange their positions, and the effect of the secular trends on the interannual correlation coefficient of the two variables remains the same. If the two variables have the same-(opposite-) sign trends, the effect of secular trends on the interannal correlation coefficient is more (less) distinctive. A meteorological example is given.展开更多
Two land surface schemes, one the standard Biosphere / Atmosphere Transfer Scheme Version ie (BOZ) and the other B1Z based on B0Z and heterogeneously-treated by' combined approach' , were co 'pled to the m...Two land surface schemes, one the standard Biosphere / Atmosphere Transfer Scheme Version ie (BOZ) and the other B1Z based on B0Z and heterogeneously-treated by' combined approach' , were co 'pled to the meso-scale model MM4, respectively. Through the calculations of equations from the companion paper, parameters representing land surface heterogeneity and suitable for the coupling models were found out. Three cases were simulated for heavy rainfalls during 36 hours, and the sensitivity of short-term weather modeling to the land surface heterogeneity was tested. Through the analysis of the simulations of the three heavy rainfalls, it was demonstrated that BIZ, compared with BOZ, could more realistically reflect the features of the land surface heterogeneity, therefore could more realistically reproduce the circulation and precipitation amount in the heavy rainfall processes of the three cases. This shows that even short-term weather is sensitive to the land surface heterogeneity, which is more obvious with time passing, and whose influence is more pronounced in the lower layer and gradually extends to the middle and upper layer. Through the analysis of these simulations with BlZ, it is suggested that the bulk effect of smaller-scale fluxes (i.e., the momentum, water vapor and sensible heat fluxes) near the s ig nificantly-heterogeneous land surface is to change the larger-scale (i.e., meso-scale) circulation, and then to influence the development of the low-level jets and precipitation. And also, the complexity of the land-atmosphere interaction was shown in these simulations.展开更多
In this paper, the summer climate of 1991 in North China is simulated by using the high-resolution regional climate model (RegCM2) and the effects of the grassland desertification on summer drought in the central and ...In this paper, the summer climate of 1991 in North China is simulated by using the high-resolution regional climate model (RegCM2) and the effects of the grassland desertification on summer drought in the central and the northern parts of North China as well as Mongolia are studied. It shows that the regional climate model essentially catches the characteristics on distribution and seasonal variation of the precipitation that keep good agreement with the observation. The desertification makes precipitation in the central part of North China during its flood period decrease obviously in July. The border of the precipitation or the soil moisture reduction in the desertification region extends about one latitude southeastward and beyond the southeast edge of the desertification. Thus, vegetation in the border region approaches desertification further. However, there appears evident difference of variation of precipitation over the whole desertification region. The grassland desertification greatly changes the transfers of fluxes between land and atmosphere. The secondary circulation or secondary circulation cells in the desertification region are excited and as a result moisture transport is changed. The variation of flux transfers between land and atmosphere as well as the vertical motion of atmosphere is closely related to that of precipitation.展开更多
Significant anomalous tracks were observed when the severe tropical storm Goni (0907) and typhoon Morakot (0908) in September 2009 were evaluated in short distances. The relationship between the two is regarded as...Significant anomalous tracks were observed when the severe tropical storm Goni (0907) and typhoon Morakot (0908) in September 2009 were evaluated in short distances. The relationship between the two is regarded as a case of binary interaction. Based on an MM5 model (fifth=generation mesoscale model of Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research), in this study a series of sensitivity experiments were designed to determine the binary interaction between them. The sensitivity of the storm characteristics to the binary interaction was demonstrated through modeling experiments with different TC intensities and sizes based on the bogus vortices initialization. Furthermore, the contributions of large-scale environmental flow and the effects of interaction between the motions of the cyclones were distinguished by numerical experiments using only one of the TC vortices. Results from these experiments show that Morakot (0908) had a greater impact on the motion of Goni (0907), whereas Goni (0907) had a relatively limited impact on Morakot (0908). At the upper level, the northeasterly jet flow in the third quadrant of Morakot (0908) enhanced the upper-level divergence of Goni (0907) and had an important role in maintaining and increasing Goni's (0907) intensity. And at the lower level, Morakot (0908), with strong convergence and ascending airflow, made a stable transport channel of southwesterly warm and wet flow, thus supporting the lower-level water vapor convergence of Goni (0907). Goni (0907), which was located upriver of the southwesterly flow, intercepted part of the water vapor transportation in the southwesterly flow, causing the water vapor convergence to strengthen while the water vapor convergence of Morakot (0908) weakened.展开更多
The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, Japan Meteorological Agency(JMA) tropical cyclone tracks and intensive surface observations are used to diagnose the features of moisture transport of tropical storm Bilis(No. 0604), which is...The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, Japan Meteorological Agency(JMA) tropical cyclone tracks and intensive surface observations are used to diagnose the features of moisture transport of tropical storm Bilis(No. 0604), which is simulated by the WRF(weather research and forecasting) mesoscale numerical model. It is shown that the Bilis was linked with the moisture channel in the lower latitudes after its landing. Meanwhile, the cross-equatorial flows over 80°-100°E and Somali were active and brought abundant water vapor into the tropical storm, facilitating the maintenance of the landing storm with intensified heavy rainfall along its path. The simulation suggested that the decreased water vapor from lower latitudes prevents the maintenance of Bilis and the development of rainfall. While the cross-equatorial flows over 80°-100°E and Somali were in favor of keeping the cyclonic circulation over land. If the moisture supply fro m the Somali jet stream was reduced, the strength and area of heavy rainfall in tropical cyclone would be remarkably weakened. Consequently, the decreased water vapor from lower latitudes can remarkably suppress the deep convection in tropical storm, then Bilis was damped without the persistent energy support and the rainfall was diminished accordingly.展开更多
This paper further explores the estimating and expressing of dynamic balance constraints using statistical methods in GRAPES-3DVAR(Version GM). Unlike the single-level scheme which only considers the coupling between ...This paper further explores the estimating and expressing of dynamic balance constraints using statistical methods in GRAPES-3DVAR(Version GM). Unlike the single-level scheme which only considers the coupling between mass and wind at one level, the multi-level scheme considers the coupling between their vertical profiles and calculates the balanced mass field at each layer using the rotational wind at all model levels. A reformed ridge regression method is used in the new scheme to avoid the multicollinearity problem and reduce the noises caused by unbalanced mesoscale disturbances. The results of numerical experiments show that the new scheme can get more reasonable vertical mass field, reduce the magnitude of the adjustment by the initialization, and improve the potential temperature analysis performance. Furthermore, the results of forecast verification in January(winter) and July(summer) both confirm that the new scheme can significantly improve the temperature forecast accuracy and bring slight positive effects to the pressure and wind forecast.展开更多
A method based on Giorgi (1997a, 1997b) and referred to as ’ combined approach’, which is a combi-nation of mosaic approach and analytical-statistical-dynamical approach, is proposed. Compared with those of other ap...A method based on Giorgi (1997a, 1997b) and referred to as ’ combined approach’, which is a combi-nation of mosaic approach and analytical-statistical-dynamical approach, is proposed. Compared with those of other approaches, the main advantage of the combined approach is that it not only can represent both interpatch and intrapatch variability, but also cost less computational time when the land surface heterogeneity is considered. Because the independent variable of probability density function (PDF) is ex-tended to the single valued function of basic meteorological characteristic quantities, which is much more universal, the analytical expressions of the characteristic quantities (e.g., drag coefficient, snow coverage, leaf surface aerodynamical resistance) affected by roughness length are derived , when the roughness length(and / or the zero plane displacement) heterogeneity has been mainly taken into account with the approach. On the basis of the rule which the PDF parameters should follow, we choose a function y of the roughness length z 0 as the PDF independent variable, and set different values of the two parameters width ratio αn and height ratio γ of PDF (here a linear, symmetric PDF is applied) for sensitivity experiments, from which some conclusions can be drawn, e.g., relevant characteristic terms show different sensitivities to the heterogeneous characteristic (i.e., roughness length), which suggests that we should consider the heterogeneities of the more sensitive terms in our model instead of the heterogeneities of the rest, and which also implies that when the land surface scheme is coupled into the global or regional atmospheric model, sensitivity tests against the distribution of the heterogeneous characteristic are very necessary; when the parameter αn is close to zero, little heterogeneity is represented, and αn differs with cases, which have an upper limit of about 0.6; in the reasonable range of αn, a peak-like distribution of roughness length can be depicted by a small value of γ, etc.. Key words Representation of land surface heterogeneity - “ Combined approach” - Numerical experiment This work was supported by the National Sciences Foundation of China, Grant No.49875005 and the State Key Project (973) G19990434 (03).展开更多
In this study,a coupled tide-surge-wave model was developed and applied to the South Yellow Sea.The coupled model simulated the evolution of storm surges and waves caused by extreme weather events,such as tropical cyc...In this study,a coupled tide-surge-wave model was developed and applied to the South Yellow Sea.The coupled model simulated the evolution of storm surges and waves caused by extreme weather events,such as tropical cyclones,cold waves,extratropical cyclones coupled with a cold wave,and tropical cyclones coupled with a cold wave.The modeled surge level and significant wave height matched the measured data well.Simulation results of the typhoon with different intensities revealed that the radius to the maximum wind speed of a typhoon with 1.5 times wind speed decreased,and its influence range was farther away from the Jiangsu coastal region;moreover,the impact on surge levels was weakened.Thereafter,eight hypothetical typhoons based on Typhoon Chan-hom were designed to investigate the effects of varying typhoon tracks on the extreme value and spatial distribution of storm surges in the offshore area of Jiangsu Province.The typhoon along path 2 mainly affected the Rudong coast,and the topography of the Rudong coast was conducive to the increase in surge level.Therefore,the typhoon along path 2 induced the largest surge level,which reached up to 2.91 m in the radial sand ridge area.The maximum surge levels in the Haizhou Bay area and the middle straight coastline area reached up to 2.37 and 2.08 m,respectively.In terms of typhoons active in offshore areas,the radial sand ridge area was most likely to be threatened by typhoon-induced storm surges.展开更多
This paper puts forward a new rock fragmentation loading method of dual-cutter head combined dynamic and static loads. By applying the numerical simulation software - RFPA2D, we have done numerical experiment about th...This paper puts forward a new rock fragmentation loading method of dual-cutter head combined dynamic and static loads. By applying the numerical simulation software - RFPA2D, we have done numerical experiment about the sihstone' s crushing effect by dynamic load on single cutter head without confining pressure, dynamic load on single cut- ter head with confining pressure 10 MPa and different dual-cutter heads spacing by combined dynamic and static loads with confining pressure 10 MPa. Experimental results show that the confining pressure can obviously affect the rock frag- mentation effect. Combined dynamic and static loads can greatly improve the rock fragmentation effect. There exists an optimal spacing of dual-cutter head that can make the rock fragmentation achieve the desired effect. Through analyzing the acoustic emission accumulative energy and quantity, the authors make a conclusion that the optimum spacing is 30 mm.展开更多
In this part, Levitus’ climatological temperature and salinity are incorporated in the numerical model developed in Part I. Diagnostic and prognostic experiment on the thermohaline circulation were conducted. The smo...In this part, Levitus’ climatological temperature and salinity are incorporated in the numerical model developed in Part I. Diagnostic and prognostic experiment on the thermohaline circulation were conducted. The smooth Levitus’ data do not include any information on the South China Sea Warm Current (SCSWC), so it is not in the model produced diagnostic thermohaline circulation. Although the SCSWC does not appear in the wind driven circulation in the barotropic case, it appears in the prognostic wind driven circulation in the baroclinic case. This implies that the differing circulation patterns between barotropic case and baroclinic case are due to the stratification. The prognostic thermohaline circulation with wind stress and inflow/outflow transports at open boundaries are also discussed. Coupling of density and dynamic forces makes the circulation pattern more complicated. Even though the stratification is not always a direct cause of the formation of the SCSWC, it is at least an indirect cause.展开更多
Tropical cyclones(TCs) Lionrock,Kompasu,and Namtheun were formed successively within 40 hours in 2010.Over the next several days afterwards,these TCs exhibited unusual movements which made operational prediction diffi...Tropical cyclones(TCs) Lionrock,Kompasu,and Namtheun were formed successively within 40 hours in 2010.Over the next several days afterwards,these TCs exhibited unusual movements which made operational prediction difficult.Verifications are performed on the forecasts of the tracks of these TCs with six operational models,including three global and three regional models.Results showed that the trends of TC tracks could be reproduced by these models,whereas trajectory turning points and landfall locations were not simulated effectively.The special track of Lionrock should be associated with its direct interaction with Namtheun,according to a conceptual model of binary TC interaction.By contrast,the relation between Kompasu and Namtheun satisfied the criteria for a semi-direct interaction.Numerical experiments based on the Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction System-Tropical Cyclone forecast Model(GRAPES-TCM) further confirmed the effect of Namtheun on the unusual tracks of Lionrock and Kompasu.Finally,the physical mechanism of binary TC interaction was preliminarily proposed.展开更多
PENN STATE/NCAR MM5 is used to simulate precipitation of the heavy rain process during 12-13 July 1994.The effects of different PBL parameterizations,resolvable scale moisture schemes and cumulus parameterization on t...PENN STATE/NCAR MM5 is used to simulate precipitation of the heavy rain process during 12-13 July 1994.The effects of different PBL parameterizations,resolvable scale moisture schemes and cumulus parameterization on the process rainfall simulation are investigated.By comparing the results of hydrostatic and nor.hydrostatic experiments,the nonhydrostatic impact upon precipitation is also examined.It is found in this study thai PENN STATE/NCAR MM5 has advantage not only in theory but also in simulating results with real data.In MM5.however,the selection of physical processes,especially water-cycle process,is very important and crucial to precipitation forecast of the case.It is concluded that the model with Grell (1993) scheme for convection and condensation method for resolvable scale precipitation captured the rainstorm during 12-13 July 1994 in Beijing area more successfully展开更多
In order to improve and enhance the numerical modeling methods and its application on debris flowproblems,a preliminary study has been proposed in accordance with the corrected water-sediment numericalmodel on the pre...In order to improve and enhance the numerical modeling methods and its application on debris flowproblems,a preliminary study has been proposed in accordance with the corrected water-sediment numericalmodel on the premise of revised resistance and sediment capacity equations.Firstly,an overview the recent re-search achievements on numerical simulation of debris flow has been conducted,the results shown that a gener-al numerical model for debris flow can not be existed at all because the complex rheological behavior and mainevolution processes from initiation,movement to deposition with different physical mechanism.Secondly,as-suming the one-dimensional Saint-Venant equation for the approximation of water debris flow movement in thegully based on the Manning's equation for the friction slope of water debris flow,the conservation equations ofmass and momentum have been solved by means of centre-difference in distance longitudinal axis of the gullyand weighted coefficient in time field,the distribution of depth,velocity and scoured or deposition in each sec-tion have been obtained using a suitable sediment transport rate.The aim in this work is focus on improvementof water-sediment model to adapt debris flow numerical simulation although this result need further to analyzeand discuss as far as the reliability and precision were concerned because this model proposed must have e-nough the field observational or experimental data to verify related model parameter.展开更多
A new remote sensing method is described to determine the vertical distribution and total content of atmospheric ozone. The method combines surface infrared, satellite infrared and ultraviolet channels. The width of t...A new remote sensing method is described to determine the vertical distribution and total content of atmospheric ozone. The method combines surface infrared, satellite infrared and ultraviolet channels. The width of the infrared channels is 0.01 cm-1, less than Lorentz half-width at the earth's surface, rather than the present width, because these channels can obtain information about variations in the ozone profile below the profile main-peak. The numerical experiments show that the method has a satisfactory precision in determining total ozone content, just about I percent error, and vertical distribution from the earth to 65 km space. In addition, some semi-analysis functions lor calculating backscattered ultraviolet and a relaxation equation are described in this paper.展开更多
As is known, high-level radioactive waste (HLW) is commonly heat-emitting. Heat output from HLWwilldissipate through the surrounding rocks and induce complex thermo-hydro-mechanical-chemical(THMC) processes. In hi...As is known, high-level radioactive waste (HLW) is commonly heat-emitting. Heat output from HLWwilldissipate through the surrounding rocks and induce complex thermo-hydro-mechanical-chemical(THMC) processes. In highly consolidated clayey rocks, thermal effects are particularly significantbecause of their very low permeability and water-saturated state. Thermal impact on the integrity of thegeological barriers is of most importance with regard to the long-term safety of repositories. This studyfocuses on numerical analysis of thermal effects on hydro-mechanical properties of clayey rock using acoupled thermo-mechanical multiphase flow (TH2M) model which is implemented in the finite elementprogramme OpenGeoSys (OGS). The material properties of the numerical model are characterised by atransversal isotropic elastic model based on Hooke's law, a non-isothermal multiphase flow model basedon van Genuchten function and Darcy's law, and a transversal isotropic heat transport model based onFourier's law. In the numerical approaches, special attention has been paid to the thermal expansion ofthree different phases: gas, fluid and solid, which could induce changes in pore pressure and porosity.Furthermore, the strong swelling and shrinkage behaviours of clayey material are also considered in thepresent model. The model has been applied to simulate a laboratory heating experiment on claystone.The numerical model gives a satisfactory representation of the observed material behaviour in thelaboratory experiment. The comparison of the calculated results with the laboratory findings verifies thatthe simulation with the present numerical model could provide a deeper understanding of the observedeffects. 2014 Institute of Rock and Soil Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sciences. Production and hosting byElsevier B.V. All rights reserved.展开更多
In this paper, based on heavy rain numerical forecast model AREM(Advanced Regional Eta Model), two different initialization schemes, LAPS and GRAPES-3DVAR, are used to run assimilation experiments of AREM-LAPS and ARE...In this paper, based on heavy rain numerical forecast model AREM(Advanced Regional Eta Model), two different initialization schemes, LAPS and GRAPES-3DVAR, are used to run assimilation experiments of AREM-LAPS and AREM-3DVAR with the same data source(NCEP forecast field, surface data and radio-soundings) during the period from 21 May to 30 July 2008 to investigate the effect of the two initialization schemes on the rainfall simulation. The result suggests that:(1) the forecast TS score by the AREM-LAPS is higher than that by the AREM-3DVAR for rainfall in different areas, at different valid time and with different intensity, especially for the heavy rain, rainstorm and extremely heavy rain;(2) the AREM-3DVAR can generally simulate the average rainfall distribution, but the forecast area is smaller and rainfall intensity is weaker than the observation, while the AREM-LAPS significantly improves the forecast;(3) the AREM-LAPS gives a better forecast for the south-north shift of rainfall bands and the rainfall intensity variation than the AREM-3DVAR;(4) the AREM-LAPS can give a better reproduction for the daily change in the mean-rainfall-rate of the main rain band, and rainfall intensity changes in the eastern part of Southwest China, the coastal area in South China, the middle-lower valleys of Yangtze river, the Valleys of Huaihe river, and Shandong peninsula, with the rainfall intensity roughly close to the observation, while the rainfall intensity simulated by the AREM-3DVAR is clearly weaker than the observation, especially in the eastern part of Southwest China; and(5) the comparison verification between the AREM-LAPS and AREM-3DVAR for more than 10 typical rainfall processes in the summer of 2008 indicates that the AREM-LAPS gives a much better forecast than AREM-3DVAR in rain-band area, rainfall location and intensity, and in particular, the rainfall intensity forecast is improved obviously.展开更多
The impact of anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) warming in the Kuroshio Extension in the previous winter on the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) was investigated by performing simulation tests using NCAR CAM3.Th...The impact of anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) warming in the Kuroshio Extension in the previous winter on the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) was investigated by performing simulation tests using NCAR CAM3.The results show that anomalous SST warming in the Kuroshio Extension in winter causes the enhancement and northward movement of the EASM.The monsoon indexes for East Asian summer monsoon and land-sea thermal difference,which characterize the intensity of the EASM,show an obvious increase during the onset period of the EASM.Moreover,the land-sea thermal difference is more sensitive to warmer SST.Low-level southwesterly monsoon is clearly strengthened meanwhile westerly flows north (south) of the subtropical westerly jet axis are strengthened (weakened) in northern China,South China Sea,and the Western Pacific Ocean to the east of the Philippines.While there is an obvious decrease in precipitation over the Japanese archipelago and adjacent oceans and over the area from the south of the Yangtze River in eastern China to the Qinling Mountains in southern China,precipitation increases notably in northern China,the South China Sea,the East China Sea,the Yellow Sea,and the Western Pacific to the east of the Philippines.North China is the key area where the response of the EASM to the SST anomalous warming in the Kuroshio Extension is prominent.The surface air temperature shows a warming trend.The warming in the entire troposphere between 30oN and 50oN increases the land-sea thermal contrast,which plays an important role in the enhancement of the EASM.Atmospheric circulation and precipitation anomalies in China and its adjacent regions have a close relationship with the enhancement of the Western Pacific subtropical high and its northward extension.展开更多
基金financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 52071128)the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Basic Research Program (Grant No. BK20220082)
文摘Flume experiments play a pivotal role in studying wave propagation,with wave elements typically assumed to remain constant in the perpendicular direction.However,evident cross wave phenomena were observed within flumes under certain conditions.This paper presents new analytical solutions for both primary and cross waves on double shoals in a flume via linear shallow-water equations,which may be used to idealize dynamic experimental configurations of coral reefs.The primary waves on double shoals are described by the associated Legendre functions,whereas the ultimate solutions are derived by considering the incident and reflected waves in front of a bathymetry and the transmitted waves positioned behind it.The effects of the angular frequency and topographic parameters on the primary waves are subsequently analyzed.Cross waves on double shoals constitute a type of topographically trapped wave whose solutions are formulated by combining the first and second types of the associated Legendre functions.The angular frequency is not only determined by the wavenumber but also influenced by the topographic parameters.Numerical experiments are conducted to investigate the generation mechanism of cross waves.The consistency between the numerical results and analytical solutions confirms the validity of the new analytical framework of cross waves on double shoals.
文摘Most of the existing studies on tunnel blast wave are based on spherical or grouped charges, however,conventional weapons are mostly cylindrical rather than spherical. In order to analyze the impact of cylindrical charges on the tunnel blast wave loads and to develop a quantitative calculation method, this study carried out experimental and numerical research. Initially, external explosion experiments were conducted using both 35 kg spherical charges and cylindrical charges with aspect ratio of 4.8 at two different distances from the tunnel entrance. Comparative analysis of the blast wave parameters in the tunnel revealed that the explosive equivalent of the cylindrical charges was significantly higher than that of the spherical charges. To address this, an equivalent coefficient κ based on the spherical charges was proposed for the cylindrical charges. Subsequently, numerical simulations were conducted for the experimental conditions, and the numerical simulation results match the experiments well. Through numerical calculations, the reliability of the equivalent coefficient κ under the experimental conditions was verified, and comparison analysis indicated that the explosion energy of cylindrical charges spreads more radially, resulting in more explosion energy entering the tunnel, which is the fundamental reason for the increase in tunnel blast wave loads. Additionally, analyzing the explosion energy ratio entering the tunnel is an effective method for calculating the equivalent coefficient κ. Finally, through more than one hundred sets of numerical calculation results, the impact of the proportional distance λ and the ratio of charge mass to the tunnel cross-section dimension φ on the equivalence coefficients κ was investigated. An empirical formula for the equivalence coefficient κ was derived through fitting, and the accuracy of the formula was validated through literature experimental results. The research findings of this paper will provide valuable guidance for the calculation of blast wave loads in tunnel.
文摘The landfall process of typhoon Haitang which affected East China seriously was simulated by using the MM5 model and the track, intensity, precipitation and structure of typhoon were successfully reproduced. Then through the sensitive test, the effects of terrain were analyzed Results show that the irregular track during the period of typhoon passing through Taiwan and later landfalling at Fujian was in relation to the occurring and developing of orthographic impressed depression. The amount of rainfall was enhanced more than one time and the strength of typhoon was weakened 4 to 5 hPa. It is found that the effect of terrain on the structure of typhoon is limited at low level and is backward in space compared with the one at high level. In addition, the phenomenon that the equivalent temperature in the typhoon's moving direction inclines to the west on the eye of landfall may be concerned with the terrain.
文摘Due to global warming, the general circulation, underlying surfaces characteristics, and geophysical and meteorological elements all show evident secular trends. This paper points out that when calculating the correlation of two variables containing their own obvious secular trends, the interannual correlation characteristics between the two variables may be distorted (overestimated or underestimated). Numerical experiments in this paper show that if two variables have opposite secular trends, the correlation coefficient between the two variables is reduced (the positive correlation is underestimated, or the negative correlation is overestimated); and if the two variables have the same sign of secular trends, the correlation coefficient between the two variables is increased (the positive correlation is overestimated, or the negative correlation is underestimated). Numerical experiments also suggest that the effect of secular trends on the interannual correlation of the two variables is interchangeable, that is to say, as long as the values of the two trends are not changed, the two variables interchange their positions, and the effect of the secular trends on the interannual correlation coefficient of the two variables remains the same. If the two variables have the same-(opposite-) sign trends, the effect of secular trends on the interannal correlation coefficient is more (less) distinctive. A meteorological example is given.
基金the NKBRSF Project! G 1999043400 the CNSF Project! 49735180.
文摘Two land surface schemes, one the standard Biosphere / Atmosphere Transfer Scheme Version ie (BOZ) and the other B1Z based on B0Z and heterogeneously-treated by' combined approach' , were co 'pled to the meso-scale model MM4, respectively. Through the calculations of equations from the companion paper, parameters representing land surface heterogeneity and suitable for the coupling models were found out. Three cases were simulated for heavy rainfalls during 36 hours, and the sensitivity of short-term weather modeling to the land surface heterogeneity was tested. Through the analysis of the simulations of the three heavy rainfalls, it was demonstrated that BIZ, compared with BOZ, could more realistically reflect the features of the land surface heterogeneity, therefore could more realistically reproduce the circulation and precipitation amount in the heavy rainfall processes of the three cases. This shows that even short-term weather is sensitive to the land surface heterogeneity, which is more obvious with time passing, and whose influence is more pronounced in the lower layer and gradually extends to the middle and upper layer. Through the analysis of these simulations with BlZ, it is suggested that the bulk effect of smaller-scale fluxes (i.e., the momentum, water vapor and sensible heat fluxes) near the s ig nificantly-heterogeneous land surface is to change the larger-scale (i.e., meso-scale) circulation, and then to influence the development of the low-level jets and precipitation. And also, the complexity of the land-atmosphere interaction was shown in these simulations.
文摘In this paper, the summer climate of 1991 in North China is simulated by using the high-resolution regional climate model (RegCM2) and the effects of the grassland desertification on summer drought in the central and the northern parts of North China as well as Mongolia are studied. It shows that the regional climate model essentially catches the characteristics on distribution and seasonal variation of the precipitation that keep good agreement with the observation. The desertification makes precipitation in the central part of North China during its flood period decrease obviously in July. The border of the precipitation or the soil moisture reduction in the desertification region extends about one latitude southeastward and beyond the southeast edge of the desertification. Thus, vegetation in the border region approaches desertification further. However, there appears evident difference of variation of precipitation over the whole desertification region. The grassland desertification greatly changes the transfers of fluxes between land and atmosphere. The secondary circulation or secondary circulation cells in the desertification region are excited and as a result moisture transport is changed. The variation of flux transfers between land and atmosphere as well as the vertical motion of atmosphere is closely related to that of precipitation.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41005029)the National Public Benefit (Meteorology) Research Foundation of China (Grant No.GYHY201106004)
文摘Significant anomalous tracks were observed when the severe tropical storm Goni (0907) and typhoon Morakot (0908) in September 2009 were evaluated in short distances. The relationship between the two is regarded as a case of binary interaction. Based on an MM5 model (fifth=generation mesoscale model of Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research), in this study a series of sensitivity experiments were designed to determine the binary interaction between them. The sensitivity of the storm characteristics to the binary interaction was demonstrated through modeling experiments with different TC intensities and sizes based on the bogus vortices initialization. Furthermore, the contributions of large-scale environmental flow and the effects of interaction between the motions of the cyclones were distinguished by numerical experiments using only one of the TC vortices. Results from these experiments show that Morakot (0908) had a greater impact on the motion of Goni (0907), whereas Goni (0907) had a relatively limited impact on Morakot (0908). At the upper level, the northeasterly jet flow in the third quadrant of Morakot (0908) enhanced the upper-level divergence of Goni (0907) and had an important role in maintaining and increasing Goni's (0907) intensity. And at the lower level, Morakot (0908), with strong convergence and ascending airflow, made a stable transport channel of southwesterly warm and wet flow, thus supporting the lower-level water vapor convergence of Goni (0907). Goni (0907), which was located upriver of the southwesterly flow, intercepted part of the water vapor transportation in the southwesterly flow, causing the water vapor convergence to strengthen while the water vapor convergence of Morakot (0908) weakened.
基金Major Program of the Natural Science Researches for Colleges and Universities in Jiangsu Province(14KJA170004)'333'Project of Jiangsu ProvinceNational Natural Science Foundation of China(41575081,41175061)
文摘The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, Japan Meteorological Agency(JMA) tropical cyclone tracks and intensive surface observations are used to diagnose the features of moisture transport of tropical storm Bilis(No. 0604), which is simulated by the WRF(weather research and forecasting) mesoscale numerical model. It is shown that the Bilis was linked with the moisture channel in the lower latitudes after its landing. Meanwhile, the cross-equatorial flows over 80°-100°E and Somali were active and brought abundant water vapor into the tropical storm, facilitating the maintenance of the landing storm with intensified heavy rainfall along its path. The simulation suggested that the decreased water vapor from lower latitudes prevents the maintenance of Bilis and the development of rainfall. While the cross-equatorial flows over 80°-100°E and Somali were in favor of keeping the cyclonic circulation over land. If the moisture supply fro m the Somali jet stream was reduced, the strength and area of heavy rainfall in tropical cyclone would be remarkably weakened. Consequently, the decreased water vapor from lower latitudes can remarkably suppress the deep convection in tropical storm, then Bilis was damped without the persistent energy support and the rainfall was diminished accordingly.
基金China Special Fund for Meteorological Research in the Public Interest(GYHY201106008,GYHY201506003)China Meteorological Administration Special Fund for the Development of Numerical Weather Prediction(GRAPES)Research Innovation Program for College Graduates of Jiangsu Province(CXZZ13_0497)
文摘This paper further explores the estimating and expressing of dynamic balance constraints using statistical methods in GRAPES-3DVAR(Version GM). Unlike the single-level scheme which only considers the coupling between mass and wind at one level, the multi-level scheme considers the coupling between their vertical profiles and calculates the balanced mass field at each layer using the rotational wind at all model levels. A reformed ridge regression method is used in the new scheme to avoid the multicollinearity problem and reduce the noises caused by unbalanced mesoscale disturbances. The results of numerical experiments show that the new scheme can get more reasonable vertical mass field, reduce the magnitude of the adjustment by the initialization, and improve the potential temperature analysis performance. Furthermore, the results of forecast verification in January(winter) and July(summer) both confirm that the new scheme can significantly improve the temperature forecast accuracy and bring slight positive effects to the pressure and wind forecast.
文摘A method based on Giorgi (1997a, 1997b) and referred to as ’ combined approach’, which is a combi-nation of mosaic approach and analytical-statistical-dynamical approach, is proposed. Compared with those of other approaches, the main advantage of the combined approach is that it not only can represent both interpatch and intrapatch variability, but also cost less computational time when the land surface heterogeneity is considered. Because the independent variable of probability density function (PDF) is ex-tended to the single valued function of basic meteorological characteristic quantities, which is much more universal, the analytical expressions of the characteristic quantities (e.g., drag coefficient, snow coverage, leaf surface aerodynamical resistance) affected by roughness length are derived , when the roughness length(and / or the zero plane displacement) heterogeneity has been mainly taken into account with the approach. On the basis of the rule which the PDF parameters should follow, we choose a function y of the roughness length z 0 as the PDF independent variable, and set different values of the two parameters width ratio αn and height ratio γ of PDF (here a linear, symmetric PDF is applied) for sensitivity experiments, from which some conclusions can be drawn, e.g., relevant characteristic terms show different sensitivities to the heterogeneous characteristic (i.e., roughness length), which suggests that we should consider the heterogeneities of the more sensitive terms in our model instead of the heterogeneities of the rest, and which also implies that when the land surface scheme is coupled into the global or regional atmospheric model, sensitivity tests against the distribution of the heterogeneous characteristic are very necessary; when the parameter αn is close to zero, little heterogeneity is represented, and αn differs with cases, which have an upper limit of about 0.6; in the reasonable range of αn, a peak-like distribution of roughness length can be depicted by a small value of γ, etc.. Key words Representation of land surface heterogeneity - “ Combined approach” - Numerical experiment This work was supported by the National Sciences Foundation of China, Grant No.49875005 and the State Key Project (973) G19990434 (03).
基金funded by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(No.B210202031)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41606042)the Marine Renewable Energy Foundation,State Oceanic Administration,China(No.GHME2017YY01).
文摘In this study,a coupled tide-surge-wave model was developed and applied to the South Yellow Sea.The coupled model simulated the evolution of storm surges and waves caused by extreme weather events,such as tropical cyclones,cold waves,extratropical cyclones coupled with a cold wave,and tropical cyclones coupled with a cold wave.The modeled surge level and significant wave height matched the measured data well.Simulation results of the typhoon with different intensities revealed that the radius to the maximum wind speed of a typhoon with 1.5 times wind speed decreased,and its influence range was farther away from the Jiangsu coastal region;moreover,the impact on surge levels was weakened.Thereafter,eight hypothetical typhoons based on Typhoon Chan-hom were designed to investigate the effects of varying typhoon tracks on the extreme value and spatial distribution of storm surges in the offshore area of Jiangsu Province.The typhoon along path 2 mainly affected the Rudong coast,and the topography of the Rudong coast was conducive to the increase in surge level.Therefore,the typhoon along path 2 induced the largest surge level,which reached up to 2.91 m in the radial sand ridge area.The maximum surge levels in the Haizhou Bay area and the middle straight coastline area reached up to 2.37 and 2.08 m,respectively.In terms of typhoons active in offshore areas,the radial sand ridge area was most likely to be threatened by typhoon-induced storm surges.
基金National Science Foundation of China (No.50974059No.50934006)
文摘This paper puts forward a new rock fragmentation loading method of dual-cutter head combined dynamic and static loads. By applying the numerical simulation software - RFPA2D, we have done numerical experiment about the sihstone' s crushing effect by dynamic load on single cutter head without confining pressure, dynamic load on single cut- ter head with confining pressure 10 MPa and different dual-cutter heads spacing by combined dynamic and static loads with confining pressure 10 MPa. Experimental results show that the confining pressure can obviously affect the rock frag- mentation effect. Combined dynamic and static loads can greatly improve the rock fragmentation effect. There exists an optimal spacing of dual-cutter head that can make the rock fragmentation achieve the desired effect. Through analyzing the acoustic emission accumulative energy and quantity, the authors make a conclusion that the optimum spacing is 30 mm.
文摘In this part, Levitus’ climatological temperature and salinity are incorporated in the numerical model developed in Part I. Diagnostic and prognostic experiment on the thermohaline circulation were conducted. The smooth Levitus’ data do not include any information on the South China Sea Warm Current (SCSWC), so it is not in the model produced diagnostic thermohaline circulation. Although the SCSWC does not appear in the wind driven circulation in the barotropic case, it appears in the prognostic wind driven circulation in the baroclinic case. This implies that the differing circulation patterns between barotropic case and baroclinic case are due to the stratification. The prognostic thermohaline circulation with wind stress and inflow/outflow transports at open boundaries are also discussed. Coupling of density and dynamic forces makes the circulation pattern more complicated. Even though the stratification is not always a direct cause of the formation of the SCSWC, it is at least an indirect cause.
基金"973"Project(2009CB421500,2013CB430305)National Natural Science Foundation of China(40921160381,40705024,40875039)+1 种基金Special Scientific Research Fund of Meteorological Public Welfare of China(GYHY201006007,GYHY201006008,GYHY201006016)Shanghai Typhoon Research Foundation(2010ST09)
文摘Tropical cyclones(TCs) Lionrock,Kompasu,and Namtheun were formed successively within 40 hours in 2010.Over the next several days afterwards,these TCs exhibited unusual movements which made operational prediction difficult.Verifications are performed on the forecasts of the tracks of these TCs with six operational models,including three global and three regional models.Results showed that the trends of TC tracks could be reproduced by these models,whereas trajectory turning points and landfall locations were not simulated effectively.The special track of Lionrock should be associated with its direct interaction with Namtheun,according to a conceptual model of binary TC interaction.By contrast,the relation between Kompasu and Namtheun satisfied the criteria for a semi-direct interaction.Numerical experiments based on the Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction System-Tropical Cyclone forecast Model(GRAPES-TCM) further confirmed the effect of Namtheun on the unusual tracks of Lionrock and Kompasu.Finally,the physical mechanism of binary TC interaction was preliminarily proposed.
基金This work was supported by LASGthe National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘PENN STATE/NCAR MM5 is used to simulate precipitation of the heavy rain process during 12-13 July 1994.The effects of different PBL parameterizations,resolvable scale moisture schemes and cumulus parameterization on the process rainfall simulation are investigated.By comparing the results of hydrostatic and nor.hydrostatic experiments,the nonhydrostatic impact upon precipitation is also examined.It is found in this study thai PENN STATE/NCAR MM5 has advantage not only in theory but also in simulating results with real data.In MM5.however,the selection of physical processes,especially water-cycle process,is very important and crucial to precipitation forecast of the case.It is concluded that the model with Grell (1993) scheme for convection and condensation method for resolvable scale precipitation captured the rainstorm during 12-13 July 1994 in Beijing area more successfully
基金Supported by National Scientific Foundation of China(Study on of Basis Theory and Prediction of Debris Flow,40025103)
文摘In order to improve and enhance the numerical modeling methods and its application on debris flowproblems,a preliminary study has been proposed in accordance with the corrected water-sediment numericalmodel on the premise of revised resistance and sediment capacity equations.Firstly,an overview the recent re-search achievements on numerical simulation of debris flow has been conducted,the results shown that a gener-al numerical model for debris flow can not be existed at all because the complex rheological behavior and mainevolution processes from initiation,movement to deposition with different physical mechanism.Secondly,as-suming the one-dimensional Saint-Venant equation for the approximation of water debris flow movement in thegully based on the Manning's equation for the friction slope of water debris flow,the conservation equations ofmass and momentum have been solved by means of centre-difference in distance longitudinal axis of the gullyand weighted coefficient in time field,the distribution of depth,velocity and scoured or deposition in each sec-tion have been obtained using a suitable sediment transport rate.The aim in this work is focus on improvementof water-sediment model to adapt debris flow numerical simulation although this result need further to analyzeand discuss as far as the reliability and precision were concerned because this model proposed must have e-nough the field observational or experimental data to verify related model parameter.
文摘A new remote sensing method is described to determine the vertical distribution and total content of atmospheric ozone. The method combines surface infrared, satellite infrared and ultraviolet channels. The width of the infrared channels is 0.01 cm-1, less than Lorentz half-width at the earth's surface, rather than the present width, because these channels can obtain information about variations in the ozone profile below the profile main-peak. The numerical experiments show that the method has a satisfactory precision in determining total ozone content, just about I percent error, and vertical distribution from the earth to 65 km space. In addition, some semi-analysis functions lor calculating backscattered ultraviolet and a relaxation equation are described in this paper.
基金supported by BMWi (Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Energie,Berlin)
文摘As is known, high-level radioactive waste (HLW) is commonly heat-emitting. Heat output from HLWwilldissipate through the surrounding rocks and induce complex thermo-hydro-mechanical-chemical(THMC) processes. In highly consolidated clayey rocks, thermal effects are particularly significantbecause of their very low permeability and water-saturated state. Thermal impact on the integrity of thegeological barriers is of most importance with regard to the long-term safety of repositories. This studyfocuses on numerical analysis of thermal effects on hydro-mechanical properties of clayey rock using acoupled thermo-mechanical multiphase flow (TH2M) model which is implemented in the finite elementprogramme OpenGeoSys (OGS). The material properties of the numerical model are characterised by atransversal isotropic elastic model based on Hooke's law, a non-isothermal multiphase flow model basedon van Genuchten function and Darcy's law, and a transversal isotropic heat transport model based onFourier's law. In the numerical approaches, special attention has been paid to the thermal expansion ofthree different phases: gas, fluid and solid, which could induce changes in pore pressure and porosity.Furthermore, the strong swelling and shrinkage behaviours of clayey material are also considered in thepresent model. The model has been applied to simulate a laboratory heating experiment on claystone.The numerical model gives a satisfactory representation of the observed material behaviour in thelaboratory experiment. The comparison of the calculated results with the laboratory findings verifies thatthe simulation with the present numerical model could provide a deeper understanding of the observedeffects. 2014 Institute of Rock and Soil Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sciences. Production and hosting byElsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
基金Scientific Research Projects Specially for Public Welfare Industries(GYHY200906010)National Natural Science Foundation of China(41075034)Project 1009 for Wuhan Heavy Rain Institute
文摘In this paper, based on heavy rain numerical forecast model AREM(Advanced Regional Eta Model), two different initialization schemes, LAPS and GRAPES-3DVAR, are used to run assimilation experiments of AREM-LAPS and AREM-3DVAR with the same data source(NCEP forecast field, surface data and radio-soundings) during the period from 21 May to 30 July 2008 to investigate the effect of the two initialization schemes on the rainfall simulation. The result suggests that:(1) the forecast TS score by the AREM-LAPS is higher than that by the AREM-3DVAR for rainfall in different areas, at different valid time and with different intensity, especially for the heavy rain, rainstorm and extremely heavy rain;(2) the AREM-3DVAR can generally simulate the average rainfall distribution, but the forecast area is smaller and rainfall intensity is weaker than the observation, while the AREM-LAPS significantly improves the forecast;(3) the AREM-LAPS gives a better forecast for the south-north shift of rainfall bands and the rainfall intensity variation than the AREM-3DVAR;(4) the AREM-LAPS can give a better reproduction for the daily change in the mean-rainfall-rate of the main rain band, and rainfall intensity changes in the eastern part of Southwest China, the coastal area in South China, the middle-lower valleys of Yangtze river, the Valleys of Huaihe river, and Shandong peninsula, with the rainfall intensity roughly close to the observation, while the rainfall intensity simulated by the AREM-3DVAR is clearly weaker than the observation, especially in the eastern part of Southwest China; and(5) the comparison verification between the AREM-LAPS and AREM-3DVAR for more than 10 typical rainfall processes in the summer of 2008 indicates that the AREM-LAPS gives a much better forecast than AREM-3DVAR in rain-band area, rainfall location and intensity, and in particular, the rainfall intensity forecast is improved obviously.
基金National Program on Key Basic Research Project of China (973 Program) (2007CB411805 2010CB428505)National Natural Science Foundation of China (40830958)
文摘The impact of anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) warming in the Kuroshio Extension in the previous winter on the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) was investigated by performing simulation tests using NCAR CAM3.The results show that anomalous SST warming in the Kuroshio Extension in winter causes the enhancement and northward movement of the EASM.The monsoon indexes for East Asian summer monsoon and land-sea thermal difference,which characterize the intensity of the EASM,show an obvious increase during the onset period of the EASM.Moreover,the land-sea thermal difference is more sensitive to warmer SST.Low-level southwesterly monsoon is clearly strengthened meanwhile westerly flows north (south) of the subtropical westerly jet axis are strengthened (weakened) in northern China,South China Sea,and the Western Pacific Ocean to the east of the Philippines.While there is an obvious decrease in precipitation over the Japanese archipelago and adjacent oceans and over the area from the south of the Yangtze River in eastern China to the Qinling Mountains in southern China,precipitation increases notably in northern China,the South China Sea,the East China Sea,the Yellow Sea,and the Western Pacific to the east of the Philippines.North China is the key area where the response of the EASM to the SST anomalous warming in the Kuroshio Extension is prominent.The surface air temperature shows a warming trend.The warming in the entire troposphere between 30oN and 50oN increases the land-sea thermal contrast,which plays an important role in the enhancement of the EASM.Atmospheric circulation and precipitation anomalies in China and its adjacent regions have a close relationship with the enhancement of the Western Pacific subtropical high and its northward extension.