Spatiotemporal forecasting of surface soil moisture(SSM)is recognized as a critical scientific issue in precision agricultural irrigation,regional drought monitoring,and early warning systems for extreme precipitation...Spatiotemporal forecasting of surface soil moisture(SSM)is recognized as a critical scientific issue in precision agricultural irrigation,regional drought monitoring,and early warning systems for extreme precipitation.However,long-term forecasting continues to pose formidable challenges because of the complexity observed across both the spatial and temporal scales.In this study,we used a daily SSM dataset at a 0.05°×0.05°spatial resolution over the Qilian Mountains,China and proposed a hybrid Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory(ConvLSTM)-Nudging model,which combined deep neural networks with data assimilation to increase the accuracy of long-term SSM forecasting.We trained and evaluated the SSM predictive performance of four models(Convolutional Neural Network(CNN),Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM),ConvLSTM,and ConvLSTM with Squeeze-and-Excitation(SE)attention mechanism(ConvLSTM-SE))in both short-term and long-term scenarios.The results showed that all the models perform well under short-term predictions,but the accuracy decrease substantially in long-term predictions.Therefore,we integrated Nudging technique during the long-term prediction phase to assimilate observational information and rectify model biases.Comprehensive evaluations demonstrate that Nudging significantly improves all the models,with ConvLSTM-Nudging achieving the best performance under the 200-d forecasting scenario.Relative to those of the best-performing ConvLSTM model for long-term forecasts,when observation noiseδ=0.00 and observation fraction obs=50.0%,the coefficient of determination(R2)of ConvLSTM-Nudging increases by approximately 82.1%,while its mean absolute error(MAE)and root mean squared error(RMSE)decrease by approximately 84.8%and 77.3%,respectively;the average Pearson correlation coefficient(r)improves by approximately 23.6%,and Bias is reduced by 98.1%.These results demonstrated that although pure deep learning models achieve high accuracy in the short-term predictions,they are prone to error accumulation and systematic drift in long-term autoregressive predictions.Integrating data assimilation with deep learning and continuously correcting the state through observation can effectively suppress long-term biases,thereby achieving robust long-term SSM forecasting.展开更多
This paper conducts a comprehensive review of existing research on Privacy by Design (PbD) and behavioral economics, explores the intersection of Privacy by Design (PbD) and behavioral economics, and how designers can...This paper conducts a comprehensive review of existing research on Privacy by Design (PbD) and behavioral economics, explores the intersection of Privacy by Design (PbD) and behavioral economics, and how designers can leverage “nudges” to encourage users towards privacy-friendly choices. We analyze the limitations of rational choice in the context of privacy decision-making and identify key opportunities for integrating behavioral economics into PbD. We propose a user-centered design framework for integrating behavioral economics into PbD, which includes strategies for simplifying complex choices, making privacy visible, providing feedback and control, and testing and iterating. Our analysis highlights the need for a more nuanced understanding of user behavior and decision-making in the context of privacy, and demonstrates the potential of behavioral economics to inform the design of more effective PbD solutions.展开更多
The Nutri-Score is a 5-color front-of-pack nutrition label designed to provide consumers with an easily understandable guideline to the healthiness of food products.The impact that the Nutri-Score may have on consumer...The Nutri-Score is a 5-color front-of-pack nutrition label designed to provide consumers with an easily understandable guideline to the healthiness of food products.The impact that the Nutri-Score may have on consumers'choices is unclear since different experimental paradigms have found vastly different effect sizes.In the present study,we have investigated how student participants change a hypothetical personal 1-daydietary plan after a learning phase during which they learn about the Nutri-Scores of the available food items.Participants were instructed to compose a healthy diet plan in order that the question of whether the NutriScore would improve their ability to compose a healthy dietary plan could be investigated,independent of the question of whether they would apply this knowledge in their ordinary lives.We found a substantial(Cohen's d=0.86)positive impact on nutritional quality(as measured by the Nutrient Profiling System score of the Food Standards Agency)and a medium-sized(Cohen's d=0.43)reduction of energy content.Energy content reduction was larger for participants who had initially composed plans with higher energy content.The results suggest that the Nutri-Score has the potential to guide consumers to healthier food choices.It remains unclear,however,whether this potential will be reflected in real-life dietary choices.展开更多
Tides represent a crucial dynamic process in the ocean and play a vital role in both marine and atmospheric studies;thus,accurate simulation of tidal processes is of the utmost importance in tidal circulation models.B...Tides represent a crucial dynamic process in the ocean and play a vital role in both marine and atmospheric studies;thus,accurate simulation of tidal processes is of the utmost importance in tidal circulation models.Based on the sequential data assimilation method and the concept of the Kalman gain matrix,this paper proposes a new nudging method with spatially dependent coefficients for tidal assimilation.The spatial-dependent nudging method not only retains the advantages of the traditional nudging method but also facilitates the direct determination of a more reasonable spatial distribution of nudging coefficients.Utilizing the M_(2)tidal constituent(the main lunar semidiurnal tide)as an illustration,we conducted assimilation experiments of sea-level data to the barotropic circulation and tide model to assess the global harmonic constants of the M_(2)constituent.The results demonstrate that the spatial-dependent nudging method successfully mitigates deviations of tidal phase lag.Following assimilation using the new method,the deviations of the M_(2)tidal amplitude and phase lag can be reduced by 47%and 18%compared to the traditional nudging method,respectively,while the respective values for the non-assimilated case are as much as 9%and 11%.We also applied the S-nudging method to realistic tidal simulations and noted a significantly enhanced effectiveness relative to traditional methods,making it highly valuable for modeling oceanic tidal circulations.展开更多
Considerable efforts are being made to transition current lithium-ion and sodium-ion batteries towards the use of solid-state electrolytes.Computational methods,specifically nudged elastic band(NEB)and molecular dynam...Considerable efforts are being made to transition current lithium-ion and sodium-ion batteries towards the use of solid-state electrolytes.Computational methods,specifically nudged elastic band(NEB)and molecular dynamics(MD)methods,provide powerful tools for the design of solid-state electrolytes.The MD method is usually the choice for studying the materials involving complex multiple diffusion paths or having disordered structures.However,it relies on simulations at temperatures much higher than working temperature.This paper studies the reliability of the MD method using the system of Na diffusion in MgO as a benchmark.We carefully study the convergence behavior of the MD method and demonstrate that total effective simulation time of 12 ns can converge the calculated diffusion barrier to about 0.01 eV.The calculated diffusion barrier is 0.31 eV from both methods.The diffusion coefficients at room temperature are 4.3×10^(-9) cm^(2)⋅s^(−1) and 2.2×10^(-9) cm^(2)⋅s^(−1),respectively,from the NEB and MD methods.Our results justify the reliability of the MD method,even though high temperature simulations have to be employed to overcome the limitation on simulation time.展开更多
In this study,a latent heat nudging lightning data assimilation(LDA)method independent of the flash rate was developed and tested with data from the Lightning Mapping Imager(LMI)onboard the Feng-Yun-4A(FY-4A)satellite...In this study,a latent heat nudging lightning data assimilation(LDA)method independent of the flash rate was developed and tested with data from the Lightning Mapping Imager(LMI)onboard the Feng-Yun-4A(FY-4A)satellite based on the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model.In this LDA method,the positive temperature perturbations at the lightning location are first calculated by the difference between the moist adiabatic temperature of a lifted air parcel and the model temperature.The positive temperature perturbations in the mixed-phase region are then assimilated by a nudging method to adjust the latent heat within the convective system.Meanwhile,the water vapor mixing ratio is adapted to the temperature perturbations accordingly to constrain the relative humidity to remain unchanged.This method considers the physical nature of the convective system,in contrast with other LDA methods that establish an empirical or statistical relationship between the lightning flash rates and model variables.The impact of this LDA method on short-term(≤6 h)forecasts was evaluated using two severe convective events in eastern China:a multi-region heavy rainfall event and a thunderstorm high-wind event.The results showed that LDA could add thermodynamic information associated with the convective system to the WRF model during the nudging period,leading to a more reasonable storm environment.In the forecast fields,the simulations with LDA produced more realistic convective structures,resulting in an improvement in forecasts of precipitation and high winds.展开更多
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42461053)the Department of Education of Gansu Province:Higher Education Innovation Fund Project(2023B-064)+1 种基金the Youth Doctoral Fund Project(2024QB-014)the Natural Science Foundation of Gansu Province(25JRRA012).
文摘Spatiotemporal forecasting of surface soil moisture(SSM)is recognized as a critical scientific issue in precision agricultural irrigation,regional drought monitoring,and early warning systems for extreme precipitation.However,long-term forecasting continues to pose formidable challenges because of the complexity observed across both the spatial and temporal scales.In this study,we used a daily SSM dataset at a 0.05°×0.05°spatial resolution over the Qilian Mountains,China and proposed a hybrid Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory(ConvLSTM)-Nudging model,which combined deep neural networks with data assimilation to increase the accuracy of long-term SSM forecasting.We trained and evaluated the SSM predictive performance of four models(Convolutional Neural Network(CNN),Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM),ConvLSTM,and ConvLSTM with Squeeze-and-Excitation(SE)attention mechanism(ConvLSTM-SE))in both short-term and long-term scenarios.The results showed that all the models perform well under short-term predictions,but the accuracy decrease substantially in long-term predictions.Therefore,we integrated Nudging technique during the long-term prediction phase to assimilate observational information and rectify model biases.Comprehensive evaluations demonstrate that Nudging significantly improves all the models,with ConvLSTM-Nudging achieving the best performance under the 200-d forecasting scenario.Relative to those of the best-performing ConvLSTM model for long-term forecasts,when observation noiseδ=0.00 and observation fraction obs=50.0%,the coefficient of determination(R2)of ConvLSTM-Nudging increases by approximately 82.1%,while its mean absolute error(MAE)and root mean squared error(RMSE)decrease by approximately 84.8%and 77.3%,respectively;the average Pearson correlation coefficient(r)improves by approximately 23.6%,and Bias is reduced by 98.1%.These results demonstrated that although pure deep learning models achieve high accuracy in the short-term predictions,they are prone to error accumulation and systematic drift in long-term autoregressive predictions.Integrating data assimilation with deep learning and continuously correcting the state through observation can effectively suppress long-term biases,thereby achieving robust long-term SSM forecasting.
文摘This paper conducts a comprehensive review of existing research on Privacy by Design (PbD) and behavioral economics, explores the intersection of Privacy by Design (PbD) and behavioral economics, and how designers can leverage “nudges” to encourage users towards privacy-friendly choices. We analyze the limitations of rational choice in the context of privacy decision-making and identify key opportunities for integrating behavioral economics into PbD. We propose a user-centered design framework for integrating behavioral economics into PbD, which includes strategies for simplifying complex choices, making privacy visible, providing feedback and control, and testing and iterating. Our analysis highlights the need for a more nuanced understanding of user behavior and decision-making in the context of privacy, and demonstrates the potential of behavioral economics to inform the design of more effective PbD solutions.
文摘The Nutri-Score is a 5-color front-of-pack nutrition label designed to provide consumers with an easily understandable guideline to the healthiness of food products.The impact that the Nutri-Score may have on consumers'choices is unclear since different experimental paradigms have found vastly different effect sizes.In the present study,we have investigated how student participants change a hypothetical personal 1-daydietary plan after a learning phase during which they learn about the Nutri-Scores of the available food items.Participants were instructed to compose a healthy diet plan in order that the question of whether the NutriScore would improve their ability to compose a healthy dietary plan could be investigated,independent of the question of whether they would apply this knowledge in their ordinary lives.We found a substantial(Cohen's d=0.86)positive impact on nutritional quality(as measured by the Nutrient Profiling System score of the Food Standards Agency)and a medium-sized(Cohen's d=0.43)reduction of energy content.Energy content reduction was larger for participants who had initially composed plans with higher energy content.The results suggest that the Nutri-Score has the potential to guide consumers to healthier food choices.It remains unclear,however,whether this potential will be reflected in real-life dietary choices.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42276011 and Grant No.U23A2032).
文摘Tides represent a crucial dynamic process in the ocean and play a vital role in both marine and atmospheric studies;thus,accurate simulation of tidal processes is of the utmost importance in tidal circulation models.Based on the sequential data assimilation method and the concept of the Kalman gain matrix,this paper proposes a new nudging method with spatially dependent coefficients for tidal assimilation.The spatial-dependent nudging method not only retains the advantages of the traditional nudging method but also facilitates the direct determination of a more reasonable spatial distribution of nudging coefficients.Utilizing the M_(2)tidal constituent(the main lunar semidiurnal tide)as an illustration,we conducted assimilation experiments of sea-level data to the barotropic circulation and tide model to assess the global harmonic constants of the M_(2)constituent.The results demonstrate that the spatial-dependent nudging method successfully mitigates deviations of tidal phase lag.Following assimilation using the new method,the deviations of the M_(2)tidal amplitude and phase lag can be reduced by 47%and 18%compared to the traditional nudging method,respectively,while the respective values for the non-assimilated case are as much as 9%and 11%.We also applied the S-nudging method to realistic tidal simulations and noted a significantly enhanced effectiveness relative to traditional methods,making it highly valuable for modeling oceanic tidal circulations.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.12164019,11991060,12088101,and U1930402)the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangxi Province of China (Grant No.20212BAB201017).
文摘Considerable efforts are being made to transition current lithium-ion and sodium-ion batteries towards the use of solid-state electrolytes.Computational methods,specifically nudged elastic band(NEB)and molecular dynamics(MD)methods,provide powerful tools for the design of solid-state electrolytes.The MD method is usually the choice for studying the materials involving complex multiple diffusion paths or having disordered structures.However,it relies on simulations at temperatures much higher than working temperature.This paper studies the reliability of the MD method using the system of Na diffusion in MgO as a benchmark.We carefully study the convergence behavior of the MD method and demonstrate that total effective simulation time of 12 ns can converge the calculated diffusion barrier to about 0.01 eV.The calculated diffusion barrier is 0.31 eV from both methods.The diffusion coefficients at room temperature are 4.3×10^(-9) cm^(2)⋅s^(−1) and 2.2×10^(-9) cm^(2)⋅s^(−1),respectively,from the NEB and MD methods.Our results justify the reliability of the MD method,even though high temperature simulations have to be employed to overcome the limitation on simulation time.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2017YFC1501902)the Natural Science Foundation of Shanghai Science and Technology Committee(21ZR1457700).
文摘In this study,a latent heat nudging lightning data assimilation(LDA)method independent of the flash rate was developed and tested with data from the Lightning Mapping Imager(LMI)onboard the Feng-Yun-4A(FY-4A)satellite based on the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model.In this LDA method,the positive temperature perturbations at the lightning location are first calculated by the difference between the moist adiabatic temperature of a lifted air parcel and the model temperature.The positive temperature perturbations in the mixed-phase region are then assimilated by a nudging method to adjust the latent heat within the convective system.Meanwhile,the water vapor mixing ratio is adapted to the temperature perturbations accordingly to constrain the relative humidity to remain unchanged.This method considers the physical nature of the convective system,in contrast with other LDA methods that establish an empirical or statistical relationship between the lightning flash rates and model variables.The impact of this LDA method on short-term(≤6 h)forecasts was evaluated using two severe convective events in eastern China:a multi-region heavy rainfall event and a thunderstorm high-wind event.The results showed that LDA could add thermodynamic information associated with the convective system to the WRF model during the nudging period,leading to a more reasonable storm environment.In the forecast fields,the simulations with LDA produced more realistic convective structures,resulting in an improvement in forecasts of precipitation and high winds.
