In order to solve the problems of high experimental cost of ammunition,lack of field test data,and the difficulty in applying the ammunition hit probability estimation method in classical statistics,this paper assumes...In order to solve the problems of high experimental cost of ammunition,lack of field test data,and the difficulty in applying the ammunition hit probability estimation method in classical statistics,this paper assumes that the projectile dispersion of ammunition is a two-dimensional joint normal distribution,and proposes a new Bayesian inference method of ammunition hit probability based on normal-inverse Wishart distribution.Firstly,the conjugate joint prior distribution of the projectile dispersion characteristic parameters is determined to be a normal inverse Wishart distribution,and the hyperparameters in the prior distribution are estimated by simulation experimental data and historical measured data.Secondly,the field test data is integrated with the Bayesian formula to obtain the joint posterior distribution of the projectile dispersion characteristic parameters,and then the hit probability of the ammunition is estimated.Finally,compared with the binomial distribution method,the method in this paper can consider the dispersion information of ammunition projectiles,and the hit probability information is more fully utilized.The hit probability results are closer to the field shooting test samples.This method has strong applicability and is conducive to obtaining more accurate hit probability estimation results.展开更多
In this paper, the multivariate linear model Y = XB＋e, e ～ Nm×k（0, ImΣ） is considered from the Bayes perspective. Under the normal-inverse Wishart prior for （BΣ）, the Bayes estimators are derived. The sup...In this paper, the multivariate linear model Y = XB＋e, e ～ Nm×k（0, ImΣ） is considered from the Bayes perspective. Under the normal-inverse Wishart prior for （BΣ）, the Bayes estimators are derived. The superiority of the Bayes estimators of B and Σ over the least squares estimators under the criteria of Bayes mean squared error （BMSE） and Bayes mean squared error matrix （BMSEM） is shown. In addition, the Pitman Closeness （PC） criterion is also included to investigate the superiority of the Bayes estimator of B.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.71501183).
文摘In order to solve the problems of high experimental cost of ammunition,lack of field test data,and the difficulty in applying the ammunition hit probability estimation method in classical statistics,this paper assumes that the projectile dispersion of ammunition is a two-dimensional joint normal distribution,and proposes a new Bayesian inference method of ammunition hit probability based on normal-inverse Wishart distribution.Firstly,the conjugate joint prior distribution of the projectile dispersion characteristic parameters is determined to be a normal inverse Wishart distribution,and the hyperparameters in the prior distribution are estimated by simulation experimental data and historical measured data.Secondly,the field test data is integrated with the Bayesian formula to obtain the joint posterior distribution of the projectile dispersion characteristic parameters,and then the hit probability of the ammunition is estimated.Finally,compared with the binomial distribution method,the method in this paper can consider the dispersion information of ammunition projectiles,and the hit probability information is more fully utilized.The hit probability results are closer to the field shooting test samples.This method has strong applicability and is conducive to obtaining more accurate hit probability estimation results.
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.11201005,11071015)the Foundation of National Bureau of Statistics(Grant No.2013LZ17)the Natural Science Foundation of Anhui Province(Grant No.1308085QA13)
文摘In this paper, the multivariate linear model Y = XB＋e, e ～ Nm×k（0, ImΣ） is considered from the Bayes perspective. Under the normal-inverse Wishart prior for （BΣ）, the Bayes estimators are derived. The superiority of the Bayes estimators of B and Σ over the least squares estimators under the criteria of Bayes mean squared error （BMSE） and Bayes mean squared error matrix （BMSEM） is shown. In addition, the Pitman Closeness （PC） criterion is also included to investigate the superiority of the Bayes estimator of B.
