One-class support vector machine （OCSVM） and support vector data description （SVDD） are two main domain-based one-class （kernel） classifiers. To reveal their relationship with density estimation in the case of t...One-class support vector machine （OCSVM） and support vector data description （SVDD） are two main domain-based one-class （kernel） classifiers. To reveal their relationship with density estimation in the case of the Gaussian kernel, OCSVM and SVDD are firstly unified into the framework of kernel density estimation, and the essential relationship between them is explicitly revealed. Then the result proves that the density estimation induced by OCSVM or SVDD is in agreement with the true density. Meanwhile, it can also reduce the integrated squared error （ISE）. Finally, experiments on several simulated datasets verify the revealed relationships.展开更多
The application of frequency distribution statistics to data provides objective means to assess the nature of the data distribution and viability of numerical models that are used to visualize and interpret data.Two c...The application of frequency distribution statistics to data provides objective means to assess the nature of the data distribution and viability of numerical models that are used to visualize and interpret data.Two commonly used tools are the kernel density estimation and reduced chi-squared statistic used in combination with a weighted mean.Due to the wide applicability of these tools,we present a Java-based computer application called KDX to facilitate the visualization of data and the utilization of these numerical tools.展开更多
It is a common practice to evaluate probability density function or matter spatial density function from statistical samples. Kernel density estimation is a frequently used method, but to select an optimal bandwidth o...It is a common practice to evaluate probability density function or matter spatial density function from statistical samples. Kernel density estimation is a frequently used method, but to select an optimal bandwidth of kernel estimation, which is completely based on data samples, is a long-term issue that has not been well settled so far. There exist analytic formulae of optimal kernel bandwidth, but they cannot be applied directly to data samples,since they depend on the unknown underlying density functions from which the samples are drawn. In this work, we devise an approach to pick out the totally data-based optimal bandwidth. First, we derive correction formulae for the analytic formulae of optimal bandwidth to compute the roughness of the sample's density function. Then substitute the correction formulae into the analytic formulae for optimal bandwidth, and through iteration we obtain the sample's optimal bandwidth. Compared with analytic formulae, our approach gives very good results, with relative differences from the analytic formulae being only 2%～3% for sample size larger than 10~4. This approach can also be generalized easily to cases of variable kernel estimations.展开更多
Abstract Data-driven tools, such as principal component analysis （PCA） and independent component analysis （ICA） have been applied to different benchmarks as process monitoring methods. The difference between the t...Abstract Data-driven tools, such as principal component analysis （PCA） and independent component analysis （ICA） have been applied to different benchmarks as process monitoring methods. The difference between the two methods is that the components of PCA are still dependent while ICA has no orthogonality constraint and its latentvariables are independent. Process monitoring with PCA often supposes that process data or principal components is Gaussian distribution. However, this kind of constraint cannot be satisfied by several practical processes. To ex-tend the use of PCA, a nonparametric method is added to PCA to overcome the difficulty, and kernel density estimation （KDE） is rather a good choice. Though ICA is based on non-Gaussian distribution intormation, .KDE can help in the close monitoring of the data. Methods, such as PCA, ICA, PCA.with .KDE（KPCA）, and ICA with KDE,（KICA）, are demonstrated and. compared by applying them to a practical industnal Spheripol craft polypropylene catalyzer reactor instead of a laboratory emulator.展开更多
The probability hypothesis density(PHD) filter has been recognized as a promising technique for tracking an unknown number of targets. The performance of the PHD filter, however, is sensitive to the available knowledg...The probability hypothesis density(PHD) filter has been recognized as a promising technique for tracking an unknown number of targets. The performance of the PHD filter, however, is sensitive to the available knowledge on model parameters such as the measurement noise variance and those associated with the changes in the maneuvering target trajectories. If these parameters are unknown in advance, the tracking performance may degrade greatly. To address this aspect, this paper proposes to incorporate the adaptive parameter estimation(APE) method in the PHD filter so that the model parameters, which may be static and/or time-varying, can be estimated jointly with target states. The resulting APE-PHD algorithm is implemented using the particle filter(PF), which leads to the PF-APE-PHD filter. Simulations show that the newly proposed algorithm can correctly identify the unknown measurement noise variances, and it is capable of tracking multiple maneuvering targets with abrupt changing parameters in a more robust manner, compared to the multi-model approaches.展开更多
An improved method using kernel density estimation （KDE） and confidence level is presented for model validation with small samples. Decision making is a challenging problem because of input uncertainty and only smal...An improved method using kernel density estimation （KDE） and confidence level is presented for model validation with small samples. Decision making is a challenging problem because of input uncertainty and only small samples can be used due to the high costs of experimental measurements. However, model validation provides more confidence for decision makers when improving prediction accuracy at the same time. The confidence level method is introduced and the optimum sample variance is determined using a new method in kernel density estimation to increase the credibility of model validation. As a numerical example, the static frame model validation challenge problem presented by Sandia National Laboratories has been chosen. The optimum bandwidth is selected in kernel density estimation in order to build the probability model based on the calibration data. The model assessment is achieved using validation and accreditation experimental data respectively based on the probability model. Finally, the target structure prediction is performed using validated model, which are consistent with the results obtained by other researchers. The results demonstrate that the method using the improved confidence level and kernel density estimation is an effective approach to solve the model validation problem with small samples.展开更多
In a crowd density estimation dataset,the annotation of crowd locations is an extremely laborious task,and they are not taken into the evaluation metrics.In this paper,we aim to reduce the annotation cost of crowd dat...In a crowd density estimation dataset,the annotation of crowd locations is an extremely laborious task,and they are not taken into the evaluation metrics.In this paper,we aim to reduce the annotation cost of crowd datasets,and propose a crowd density estimation method based on weakly-supervised learning,in the absence of crowd position supervision information,which directly reduces the number of crowds by using the number of pedestrians in the image as the supervised information.For this purpose,we design a new training method,which exploits the correlation between global and local image features by incremental learning to train the network.Specifically,we design a parent-child network(PC-Net)focusing on the global and local image respectively,and propose a linear feature calibration structure to train the PC-Net simultaneously,and the child network learns feature transfer factors and feature bias weights,and uses the transfer factors and bias weights to linearly feature calibrate the features extracted from the Parent network,to improve the convergence of the network by using local features hidden in the crowd images.In addition,we use the pyramid vision transformer as the backbone of the PC-Net to extract crowd features at different levels,and design a global-local feature loss function(L2).We combine it with a crowd counting loss(LC)to enhance the sensitivity of the network to crowd features during the training process,which effectively improves the accuracy of crowd density estimation.The experimental results show that the PC-Net significantly reduces the gap between fullysupervised and weakly-supervised crowd density estimation,and outperforms the comparison methods on five datasets of Shanghai Tech Part A,ShanghaiTech Part B,UCF_CC_50,UCF_QNRF and JHU-CROWD++.展开更多
The drag-free satellites are widely used in the field of fundamental science as they enable the high-precision measurement in pure gravity fields. This paper investigates the estimation of local orbital reference fram...The drag-free satellites are widely used in the field of fundamental science as they enable the high-precision measurement in pure gravity fields. This paper investigates the estimation of local orbital reference frame(LORF) for drag-free satellites. An approach, taking account of the combination of the minimum estimation error and power spectral density(PSD) constraint in frequency domain, is proposed. Firstly, the relationship between eigenvalues of estimator and transfer function is built to analyze the suppression and amplification effect on input signals and obtain the eigenvalue range. Secondly, an optimization model for state estimator design with minimum estimation error in time domain and PSD constraint in frequency domain is established. It is solved by the sequential quadratic programming(SQP) algorithm. Finally, the orbital reference frame estimation of low-earth-orbit satellite is taken as an example, and the estimator of minimum variance with PSD constraint is designed and analyzed using the method proposed in this paper.展开更多
Crowd density is an important factor of crowd stability.Previous crowd density estimation methods are highly dependent on the specific video scene.This paper presented a video scene invariant crowd density estimation ...Crowd density is an important factor of crowd stability.Previous crowd density estimation methods are highly dependent on the specific video scene.This paper presented a video scene invariant crowd density estimation method using Geographic Information Systems(GIS) to monitor crowd size for large areas.The proposed method mapped crowd images to GIS.Then we can estimate crowd density for each camera in GIS using an estimation model obtained by one camera.Test results show that one model obtained by one camera in GIS can be adaptively applied to other cameras in outdoor video scenes.A real-time monitoring system for crowd size in large areas based on scene invariant model has been successfully used in 'Jiangsu Qinhuai Lantern Festival,2012'.It can provide early warning information and scientific basis for safety and security decision making.展开更多
A new algorithm for linear instantaneous independent component analysis is proposed based on maximizing the log-likelihood contrast function which can be changed into a gradient equation.An iterative method is introdu...A new algorithm for linear instantaneous independent component analysis is proposed based on maximizing the log-likelihood contrast function which can be changed into a gradient equation.An iterative method is introduced to solve this equation efficiently.The unknown probability density functions as well as their first and second derivatives in the gradient equation are estimated by kernel density method.Computer simulations on artificially generated signals and gray scale natural scene images confirm the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed algorithm.展开更多
This study examines a new methodology to predict the final seismic mortality from earthquakes in China. Most studies established the association between mortality estimation and seismic intensity without considering t...This study examines a new methodology to predict the final seismic mortality from earthquakes in China. Most studies established the association between mortality estimation and seismic intensity without considering the population density. In China, however, the data are not always available, especially when it comes to the very urgent relief situation in the disaster. And the popu- lation density varies greatly from region to region. This motivates the development of empirical models that use historical death data to provide the path to analyze the death tolls for earthquakes. The present paper employs the average population density to predict the final death tolls in earthquakes using a case-based reasoning model from realistic perspective. To validate the forecasting results, historical data from 18 large-scale earthquakes occurred in China are used to estimate the seismic morality of each case. And a typical earthquake case occurred in the northwest of Sichuan Province is employed to demonstrate the estimation of final death toll. The strength of this paper is that it provides scientific methods with overall forecast errors lower than 20 %, and opens the door for conducting final death forecasts with a qualitative and quantitative approach. Limitations and future research are also analyzed and discussed in the conclusion.展开更多
We consider n observations from the GARCH-type model: Z = UY, where U and Y are independent random variables. We aim to estimate density function Y where Y have a weighted distribution. We determine a sharp upper boun...We consider n observations from the GARCH-type model: Z = UY, where U and Y are independent random variables. We aim to estimate density function Y where Y have a weighted distribution. We determine a sharp upper bound of the associated mean integrated square error. We also make use of the measure of expected true evidence, so as to determine when model leads to a crisis and causes data to be lost.展开更多
The particle Probability Hypotheses Density (particle-PHD) filter is a tractable approach for Random Finite Set (RFS) Bayes estimation, but the particle-PHD filter can not directly derive the target track. Most existi...The particle Probability Hypotheses Density (particle-PHD) filter is a tractable approach for Random Finite Set (RFS) Bayes estimation, but the particle-PHD filter can not directly derive the target track. Most existing approaches combine the data association step to solve this problem. This paper proposes an algorithm which does not need the association step. Our basic ideal is based on the clustering algorithm of Finite Mixture Models (FMM). The intensity distribution is first derived by the particle-PHD filter, and then the clustering algorithm is applied to estimate the multitarget states and tracks jointly. The clustering process includes two steps: the prediction and update. The key to the proposed algorithm is to use the prediction as the initial points and the convergent points as the es- timates. Besides, Expectation-Maximization (EM) and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) ap- proaches are used for the FMM parameter estimation.展开更多
In the process of large-scale,grid-connected wind power operations,it is important to establish an accurate probability distribution model for wind farm fluctuations.In this study,a wind power fluctuation modeling met...In the process of large-scale,grid-connected wind power operations,it is important to establish an accurate probability distribution model for wind farm fluctuations.In this study,a wind power fluctuation modeling method is proposed based on the method of moving average and adaptive nonparametric kernel density estimation(NPKDE)method.Firstly,the method of moving average is used to reduce the fluctuation of the sampling wind power component,and the probability characteristics of the modeling are then determined based on the NPKDE.Secondly,the model is improved adaptively,and is then solved by using constraint-order optimization.The simulation results show that this method has a better accuracy and applicability compared with the modeling method based on traditional parameter estimation,and solves the local adaptation problem of traditional NPKDE.展开更多
In this work,we develop an invertible transport map,called KRnet,for density estimation by coupling the Knothe–Rosenblatt(KR)rearrangement and the flow-based generative model,which generalizes the real-valued non-vol...In this work,we develop an invertible transport map,called KRnet,for density estimation by coupling the Knothe–Rosenblatt(KR)rearrangement and the flow-based generative model,which generalizes the real-valued non-volume preserving(real NVP)model(arX-iv:1605.08803v3).The triangular structure of the KR rearrangement breaks the symmetry of the real NVP in terms of the exchange of information between dimensions,which not only accelerates the training process but also improves the accuracy significantly.We have also introduced several new layers into the generative model to improve both robustness and effectiveness,including a reformulated affine coupling layer,a rotation layer and a component-wise nonlinear invertible layer.The KRnet can be used for both density estimation and sample generation especially when the dimensionality is relatively high.Numerical experiments have been presented to demonstrate the performance of KRnet.展开更多
Monitoring sensors in complex engineering environments often record abnormal data,leading to significant positioning errors.To reduce the influence of abnormal arrival times,we introduce an innovative,outlier-robust l...Monitoring sensors in complex engineering environments often record abnormal data,leading to significant positioning errors.To reduce the influence of abnormal arrival times,we introduce an innovative,outlier-robust localization method that integrates kernel density estimation(KDE)with damping linear correction to enhance the precision of microseismic/acoustic emission(MS/AE)source positioning.Our approach systematically addresses abnormal arrival times through a three-step process:initial location by 4-arrival combinations,elimination of outliers based on three-dimensional KDE,and refinement using a linear correction with an adaptive damping factor.We validate our method through lead-breaking experiments,demonstrating over a 23%improvement in positioning accuracy with a maximum error of 9.12 mm(relative error of 15.80%)—outperforming 4 existing methods.Simulations under various system errors,outlier scales,and ratios substantiate our method’s superior performance.Field blasting experiments also confirm the practical applicability,with an average positioning error of 11.71 m(relative error of 7.59%),compared to 23.56,66.09,16.95,and 28.52 m for other methods.This research is significant as it enhances the robustness of MS/AE source localization when confronted with data anomalies.It also provides a practical solution for real-world engineering and safety monitoring applications.展开更多
Traditionally, it is widely accepted that measurement error usually obeys the normal distribution. However, in this paper a new idea is proposed that the error in digitized data which is a major derived data source in...Traditionally, it is widely accepted that measurement error usually obeys the normal distribution. However, in this paper a new idea is proposed that the error in digitized data which is a major derived data source in GIS does not obey the normal distribution but the p-norm distribution with a determinate parameter. Assuming that the error is random and has the same statistical properties, the probability density function of the normal distribution, Laplace distribution and p-norm distribution are derived based on the arithmetic mean axiom, median axiom and p-median axiom, which means that the normal distribution is only one of these distributions but not the least one. Based on this ideal distribution fitness tests such as Skewness and Kurtosis coefficient test, Pearson chi-square chi(2) test and Kolmogorov test for digitized data are conducted. The results show that the error in map digitization obeys the p-norm distribution whose parameter is close to 1.60. A least p-norm estimation and the least square estimation of digitized data are further analyzed, showing that the least p-norm adjustment is better than the least square adjustment for digitized data processing in GIS.展开更多
In order to improve the performance of the probability hypothesis density(PHD) algorithm based particle filter(PF) in terms of number estimation and states extraction of multiple targets, a new probability hypothesis ...In order to improve the performance of the probability hypothesis density(PHD) algorithm based particle filter(PF) in terms of number estimation and states extraction of multiple targets, a new probability hypothesis density filter algorithm based on marginalized particle and kernel density estimation is proposed, which utilizes the idea of marginalized particle filter to enhance the estimating performance of the PHD. The state variables are decomposed into linear and non-linear parts. The particle filter is adopted to predict and estimate the nonlinear states of multi-target after dimensionality reduction, while the Kalman filter is applied to estimate the linear parts under linear Gaussian condition. Embedding the information of the linear states into the estimated nonlinear states helps to reduce the estimating variance and improve the accuracy of target number estimation. The meanshift kernel density estimation, being of the inherent nature of searching peak value via an adaptive gradient ascent iteration, is introduced to cluster particles and extract target states, which is independent of the target number and can converge to the local peak position of the PHD distribution while avoiding the errors due to the inaccuracy in modeling and parameters estimation. Experiments show that the proposed algorithm can obtain higher tracking accuracy when using fewer sampling particles and is of lower computational complexity compared with the PF-PHD.展开更多
Previous research has identified specific areas of frequent tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic basin. This study examines long-term and decadal spatio-temporal patterns of Atlantic tropical cyclone freque...Previous research has identified specific areas of frequent tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic basin. This study examines long-term and decadal spatio-temporal patterns of Atlantic tropical cyclone frequencies from 1944 to 2009, and analyzes categorical and decadal centroid patterns using kernel density estimation (KDE) and centrographic statistics. Results corroborate previous research which has suggested that the Bermuda-Azores anticyclone plays an integral role in the direction of tropical cyclone tracks. Other teleconnections such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) may also have an impact on tropical cyclone tracks, but at a different temporal resolution. Results expand on existing knowledge of the spatial trends of tropical cyclones based on storm category and time through the use of spatial statistics. Overall, location of peak frequency varies by tropical cyclone category, with stronger storms being more concentrated in narrow regions of the southern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, while weaker storms occur in a much larger area that encompasses much of the Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico, and Atlantic Ocean off of the east coast of the United States. Additionally, the decadal centroids of tropical cyclone tracks have oscillated over a large area of the Atlantic Ocean for much of recorded history. Data collected since 1944 can be analyzed confidently to reveal these patterns.展开更多
Crowd density estimation in wide areas is a challenging problem for visual surveillance. Because of the high risk of degeneration, the safety of public events involving large crowds has always been a major concern. In...Crowd density estimation in wide areas is a challenging problem for visual surveillance. Because of the high risk of degeneration, the safety of public events involving large crowds has always been a major concern. In this paper, we propose a video-based crowd density analysis and prediction system for wide-area surveillance applications. In monocular image sequences, the Accumulated Mosaic Image Difference (AMID) method is applied to extract crowd areas having irregular motion. The specific number of persons and velocity of a crowd can be adequately estimated by our system from the density of crowded areas. Using a multi-camera network, we can obtain predictions of a crowd's density several minutes in advance. The system has been used in real applications, and numerous experiments conducted in real scenes (station, park, plaza) demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method.展开更多
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(60603029)the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province(BK2007074)the Natural Science Foundation for Colleges and Universities in Jiangsu Province(06KJB520132)~~
文摘One-class support vector machine （OCSVM） and support vector data description （SVDD） are two main domain-based one-class （kernel） classifiers. To reveal their relationship with density estimation in the case of the Gaussian kernel, OCSVM and SVDD are firstly unified into the framework of kernel density estimation, and the essential relationship between them is explicitly revealed. Then the result proves that the density estimation induced by OCSVM or SVDD is in agreement with the true density. Meanwhile, it can also reduce the integrated squared error （ISE）. Finally, experiments on several simulated datasets verify the revealed relationships.
文摘The application of frequency distribution statistics to data provides objective means to assess the nature of the data distribution and viability of numerical models that are used to visualize and interpret data.Two commonly used tools are the kernel density estimation and reduced chi-squared statistic used in combination with a weighted mean.Due to the wide applicability of these tools,we present a Java-based computer application called KDX to facilitate the visualization of data and the utilization of these numerical tools.
基金Supported by the National Science Foundation of China under Grant No.11273013by the Natural Science Foundation of Jilin Province under Grant No.20180101228JC
文摘It is a common practice to evaluate probability density function or matter spatial density function from statistical samples. Kernel density estimation is a frequently used method, but to select an optimal bandwidth of kernel estimation, which is completely based on data samples, is a long-term issue that has not been well settled so far. There exist analytic formulae of optimal kernel bandwidth, but they cannot be applied directly to data samples,since they depend on the unknown underlying density functions from which the samples are drawn. In this work, we devise an approach to pick out the totally data-based optimal bandwidth. First, we derive correction formulae for the analytic formulae of optimal bandwidth to compute the roughness of the sample's density function. Then substitute the correction formulae into the analytic formulae for optimal bandwidth, and through iteration we obtain the sample's optimal bandwidth. Compared with analytic formulae, our approach gives very good results, with relative differences from the analytic formulae being only 2%～3% for sample size larger than 10~4. This approach can also be generalized easily to cases of variable kernel estimations.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China （No.60574047） and the Doctorate Foundation of the State Education Ministry of China （No.20050335018）.
文摘Abstract Data-driven tools, such as principal component analysis （PCA） and independent component analysis （ICA） have been applied to different benchmarks as process monitoring methods. The difference between the two methods is that the components of PCA are still dependent while ICA has no orthogonality constraint and its latentvariables are independent. Process monitoring with PCA often supposes that process data or principal components is Gaussian distribution. However, this kind of constraint cannot be satisfied by several practical processes. To ex-tend the use of PCA, a nonparametric method is added to PCA to overcome the difficulty, and kernel density estimation （KDE） is rather a good choice. Though ICA is based on non-Gaussian distribution intormation, .KDE can help in the close monitoring of the data. Methods, such as PCA, ICA, PCA.with .KDE（KPCA）, and ICA with KDE,（KICA）, are demonstrated and. compared by applying them to a practical industnal Spheripol craft polypropylene catalyzer reactor instead of a laboratory emulator.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 61305017, 61304264)the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province (No. BK20130154)
文摘The probability hypothesis density(PHD) filter has been recognized as a promising technique for tracking an unknown number of targets. The performance of the PHD filter, however, is sensitive to the available knowledge on model parameters such as the measurement noise variance and those associated with the changes in the maneuvering target trajectories. If these parameters are unknown in advance, the tracking performance may degrade greatly. To address this aspect, this paper proposes to incorporate the adaptive parameter estimation(APE) method in the PHD filter so that the model parameters, which may be static and/or time-varying, can be estimated jointly with target states. The resulting APE-PHD algorithm is implemented using the particle filter(PF), which leads to the PF-APE-PHD filter. Simulations show that the newly proposed algorithm can correctly identify the unknown measurement noise variances, and it is capable of tracking multiple maneuvering targets with abrupt changing parameters in a more robust manner, compared to the multi-model approaches.
基金Funding of Jiangsu Innovation Program for Graduate Education (CXZZ11_0193)NUAA Research Funding (NJ2010009)
文摘An improved method using kernel density estimation （KDE） and confidence level is presented for model validation with small samples. Decision making is a challenging problem because of input uncertainty and only small samples can be used due to the high costs of experimental measurements. However, model validation provides more confidence for decision makers when improving prediction accuracy at the same time. The confidence level method is introduced and the optimum sample variance is determined using a new method in kernel density estimation to increase the credibility of model validation. As a numerical example, the static frame model validation challenge problem presented by Sandia National Laboratories has been chosen. The optimum bandwidth is selected in kernel density estimation in order to build the probability model based on the calibration data. The model assessment is achieved using validation and accreditation experimental data respectively based on the probability model. Finally, the target structure prediction is performed using validated model, which are consistent with the results obtained by other researchers. The results demonstrate that the method using the improved confidence level and kernel density estimation is an effective approach to solve the model validation problem with small samples.
基金the Humanities and Social Science Fund of the Ministry of Education of China(21YJAZH077)。
文摘In a crowd density estimation dataset,the annotation of crowd locations is an extremely laborious task,and they are not taken into the evaluation metrics.In this paper,we aim to reduce the annotation cost of crowd datasets,and propose a crowd density estimation method based on weakly-supervised learning,in the absence of crowd position supervision information,which directly reduces the number of crowds by using the number of pedestrians in the image as the supervised information.For this purpose,we design a new training method,which exploits the correlation between global and local image features by incremental learning to train the network.Specifically,we design a parent-child network(PC-Net)focusing on the global and local image respectively,and propose a linear feature calibration structure to train the PC-Net simultaneously,and the child network learns feature transfer factors and feature bias weights,and uses the transfer factors and bias weights to linearly feature calibrate the features extracted from the Parent network,to improve the convergence of the network by using local features hidden in the crowd images.In addition,we use the pyramid vision transformer as the backbone of the PC-Net to extract crowd features at different levels,and design a global-local feature loss function(L2).We combine it with a crowd counting loss(LC)to enhance the sensitivity of the network to crowd features during the training process,which effectively improves the accuracy of crowd density estimation.The experimental results show that the PC-Net significantly reduces the gap between fullysupervised and weakly-supervised crowd density estimation,and outperforms the comparison methods on five datasets of Shanghai Tech Part A,ShanghaiTech Part B,UCF_CC_50,UCF_QNRF and JHU-CROWD++.
基金co-supported by the Open Fund of Joint Key Laboratory of Microsatellite of CAS (No. KFKT15SYS1)the Innovation Foundation of CAS (No. CXJJ-14-Q52)
文摘The drag-free satellites are widely used in the field of fundamental science as they enable the high-precision measurement in pure gravity fields. This paper investigates the estimation of local orbital reference frame(LORF) for drag-free satellites. An approach, taking account of the combination of the minimum estimation error and power spectral density(PSD) constraint in frequency domain, is proposed. Firstly, the relationship between eigenvalues of estimator and transfer function is built to analyze the suppression and amplification effect on input signals and obtain the eigenvalue range. Secondly, an optimization model for state estimator design with minimum estimation error in time domain and PSD constraint in frequency domain is established. It is solved by the sequential quadratic programming(SQP) algorithm. Finally, the orbital reference frame estimation of low-earth-orbit satellite is taken as an example, and the estimator of minimum variance with PSD constraint is designed and analyzed using the method proposed in this paper.
基金The authors would like to thank the reviewers for their detailed reviews and constructive comments. We are also grateful for Sophie Song＇s help on the improving English. This work was supported in part by the ‘Fivetwelfh＇ National Science and Technology Support Program of the Ministry of Science and Technology of China （No. 2012BAH35B02）, the National Natural Science Foundation of China （NSFC） （No. 41401107, No. 41201402, and No. 41201417）.
文摘Crowd density is an important factor of crowd stability.Previous crowd density estimation methods are highly dependent on the specific video scene.This paper presented a video scene invariant crowd density estimation method using Geographic Information Systems(GIS) to monitor crowd size for large areas.The proposed method mapped crowd images to GIS.Then we can estimate crowd density for each camera in GIS using an estimation model obtained by one camera.Test results show that one model obtained by one camera in GIS can be adaptively applied to other cameras in outdoor video scenes.A real-time monitoring system for crowd size in large areas based on scene invariant model has been successfully used in 'Jiangsu Qinhuai Lantern Festival,2012'.It can provide early warning information and scientific basis for safety and security decision making.
文摘A new algorithm for linear instantaneous independent component analysis is proposed based on maximizing the log-likelihood contrast function which can be changed into a gradient equation.An iterative method is introduced to solve this equation efficiently.The unknown probability density functions as well as their first and second derivatives in the gradient equation are estimated by kernel density method.Computer simulations on artificially generated signals and gray scale natural scene images confirm the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed algorithm.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos.71271069,71540015,71532004)Foundation of Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture (No.ZF15069)
文摘This study examines a new methodology to predict the final seismic mortality from earthquakes in China. Most studies established the association between mortality estimation and seismic intensity without considering the population density. In China, however, the data are not always available, especially when it comes to the very urgent relief situation in the disaster. And the popu- lation density varies greatly from region to region. This motivates the development of empirical models that use historical death data to provide the path to analyze the death tolls for earthquakes. The present paper employs the average population density to predict the final death tolls in earthquakes using a case-based reasoning model from realistic perspective. To validate the forecasting results, historical data from 18 large-scale earthquakes occurred in China are used to estimate the seismic morality of each case. And a typical earthquake case occurred in the northwest of Sichuan Province is employed to demonstrate the estimation of final death toll. The strength of this paper is that it provides scientific methods with overall forecast errors lower than 20 %, and opens the door for conducting final death forecasts with a qualitative and quantitative approach. Limitations and future research are also analyzed and discussed in the conclusion.
文摘We consider n observations from the GARCH-type model: Z = UY, where U and Y are independent random variables. We aim to estimate density function Y where Y have a weighted distribution. We determine a sharp upper bound of the associated mean integrated square error. We also make use of the measure of expected true evidence, so as to determine when model leads to a crisis and causes data to be lost.
基金Supported by the National Key Fundamental Research & Development Program of China (2007CB11006)the Zhejiang Natural Science Foundation (R106745, Y1080422)
文摘The particle Probability Hypotheses Density (particle-PHD) filter is a tractable approach for Random Finite Set (RFS) Bayes estimation, but the particle-PHD filter can not directly derive the target track. Most existing approaches combine the data association step to solve this problem. This paper proposes an algorithm which does not need the association step. Our basic ideal is based on the clustering algorithm of Finite Mixture Models (FMM). The intensity distribution is first derived by the particle-PHD filter, and then the clustering algorithm is applied to estimate the multitarget states and tracks jointly. The clustering process includes two steps: the prediction and update. The key to the proposed algorithm is to use the prediction as the initial points and the convergent points as the es- timates. Besides, Expectation-Maximization (EM) and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) ap- proaches are used for the FMM parameter estimation.
基金supported by Science and Technology project of the State Grid Corporation of China“Research on Active Development Planning Technology and Comprehensive Benefit Analysis Method for Regional Smart Grid Comprehensive Demonstration Zone”National Natural Science Foundation of China(51607104)
文摘In the process of large-scale,grid-connected wind power operations,it is important to establish an accurate probability distribution model for wind farm fluctuations.In this study,a wind power fluctuation modeling method is proposed based on the method of moving average and adaptive nonparametric kernel density estimation(NPKDE)method.Firstly,the method of moving average is used to reduce the fluctuation of the sampling wind power component,and the probability characteristics of the modeling are then determined based on the NPKDE.Secondly,the model is improved adaptively,and is then solved by using constraint-order optimization.The simulation results show that this method has a better accuracy and applicability compared with the modeling method based on traditional parameter estimation,and solves the local adaptation problem of traditional NPKDE.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of Unite States (Grants DMS-1620026 and DMS-1913163)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant 11601329)
文摘In this work,we develop an invertible transport map,called KRnet,for density estimation by coupling the Knothe–Rosenblatt(KR)rearrangement and the flow-based generative model,which generalizes the real-valued non-volume preserving(real NVP)model(arX-iv:1605.08803v3).The triangular structure of the KR rearrangement breaks the symmetry of the real NVP in terms of the exchange of information between dimensions,which not only accelerates the training process but also improves the accuracy significantly.We have also introduced several new layers into the generative model to improve both robustness and effectiveness,including a reformulated affine coupling layer,a rotation layer and a component-wise nonlinear invertible layer.The KRnet can be used for both density estimation and sample generation especially when the dimensionality is relatively high.Numerical experiments have been presented to demonstrate the performance of KRnet.
基金the financial support provided by the National Key Research and Development Program for Young Scientists(No.2021YFC2900400)Postdoctoral Fellowship Program of China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(CPSF)(No.GZB20230914)+2 种基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52304123)China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(No.2023M730412)Chongqing Outstanding Youth Science Foundation Program(No.CSTB2023NSCQ-JQX0027).
文摘Monitoring sensors in complex engineering environments often record abnormal data,leading to significant positioning errors.To reduce the influence of abnormal arrival times,we introduce an innovative,outlier-robust localization method that integrates kernel density estimation(KDE)with damping linear correction to enhance the precision of microseismic/acoustic emission(MS/AE)source positioning.Our approach systematically addresses abnormal arrival times through a three-step process:initial location by 4-arrival combinations,elimination of outliers based on three-dimensional KDE,and refinement using a linear correction with an adaptive damping factor.We validate our method through lead-breaking experiments,demonstrating over a 23%improvement in positioning accuracy with a maximum error of 9.12 mm(relative error of 15.80%)—outperforming 4 existing methods.Simulations under various system errors,outlier scales,and ratios substantiate our method’s superior performance.Field blasting experiments also confirm the practical applicability,with an average positioning error of 11.71 m(relative error of 7.59%),compared to 23.56,66.09,16.95,and 28.52 m for other methods.This research is significant as it enhances the robustness of MS/AE source localization when confronted with data anomalies.It also provides a practical solution for real-world engineering and safety monitoring applications.
文摘Traditionally, it is widely accepted that measurement error usually obeys the normal distribution. However, in this paper a new idea is proposed that the error in digitized data which is a major derived data source in GIS does not obey the normal distribution but the p-norm distribution with a determinate parameter. Assuming that the error is random and has the same statistical properties, the probability density function of the normal distribution, Laplace distribution and p-norm distribution are derived based on the arithmetic mean axiom, median axiom and p-median axiom, which means that the normal distribution is only one of these distributions but not the least one. Based on this ideal distribution fitness tests such as Skewness and Kurtosis coefficient test, Pearson chi-square chi(2) test and Kolmogorov test for digitized data are conducted. The results show that the error in map digitization obeys the p-norm distribution whose parameter is close to 1.60. A least p-norm estimation and the least square estimation of digitized data are further analyzed, showing that the least p-norm adjustment is better than the least square adjustment for digitized data processing in GIS.
基金Project(61101185) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(2011AA1221) supported by the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China
文摘In order to improve the performance of the probability hypothesis density(PHD) algorithm based particle filter(PF) in terms of number estimation and states extraction of multiple targets, a new probability hypothesis density filter algorithm based on marginalized particle and kernel density estimation is proposed, which utilizes the idea of marginalized particle filter to enhance the estimating performance of the PHD. The state variables are decomposed into linear and non-linear parts. The particle filter is adopted to predict and estimate the nonlinear states of multi-target after dimensionality reduction, while the Kalman filter is applied to estimate the linear parts under linear Gaussian condition. Embedding the information of the linear states into the estimated nonlinear states helps to reduce the estimating variance and improve the accuracy of target number estimation. The meanshift kernel density estimation, being of the inherent nature of searching peak value via an adaptive gradient ascent iteration, is introduced to cluster particles and extract target states, which is independent of the target number and can converge to the local peak position of the PHD distribution while avoiding the errors due to the inaccuracy in modeling and parameters estimation. Experiments show that the proposed algorithm can obtain higher tracking accuracy when using fewer sampling particles and is of lower computational complexity compared with the PF-PHD.
文摘Previous research has identified specific areas of frequent tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic basin. This study examines long-term and decadal spatio-temporal patterns of Atlantic tropical cyclone frequencies from 1944 to 2009, and analyzes categorical and decadal centroid patterns using kernel density estimation (KDE) and centrographic statistics. Results corroborate previous research which has suggested that the Bermuda-Azores anticyclone plays an integral role in the direction of tropical cyclone tracks. Other teleconnections such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) may also have an impact on tropical cyclone tracks, but at a different temporal resolution. Results expand on existing knowledge of the spatial trends of tropical cyclones based on storm category and time through the use of spatial statistics. Overall, location of peak frequency varies by tropical cyclone category, with stronger storms being more concentrated in narrow regions of the southern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, while weaker storms occur in a much larger area that encompasses much of the Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico, and Atlantic Ocean off of the east coast of the United States. Additionally, the decadal centroids of tropical cyclone tracks have oscillated over a large area of the Atlantic Ocean for much of recorded history. Data collected since 1944 can be analyzed confidently to reveal these patterns.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No. 61175007the National Key Technologies R&D Program under Grant No. 2012BAH07B01the National Key Basic Research Program of China (973 Program) under Grant No. 2012CB316302
文摘Crowd density estimation in wide areas is a challenging problem for visual surveillance. Because of the high risk of degeneration, the safety of public events involving large crowds has always been a major concern. In this paper, we propose a video-based crowd density analysis and prediction system for wide-area surveillance applications. In monocular image sequences, the Accumulated Mosaic Image Difference (AMID) method is applied to extract crowd areas having irregular motion. The specific number of persons and velocity of a crowd can be adequately estimated by our system from the density of crowded areas. Using a multi-camera network, we can obtain predictions of a crowd's density several minutes in advance. The system has been used in real applications, and numerous experiments conducted in real scenes (station, park, plaza) demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method.
