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多目标时间序列混合特征动态变权组合预测研究 被引量:2
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作者 董志学 宫越 +1 位作者 胡勇 甘孟壮 《软件工程》 2021年第12期45-49,共5页
在通过LightGBM、Prophet、HotWinters等单一预测算法,以及通过引入搜索指数等消费者行为数据作为预测变量等无法达到汽车品牌销量预测精度的情况下,基于销量数据特征遴选出HotWinters、Prophet、LightGBM三个预测模型,并自主构建了Musg... 在通过LightGBM、Prophet、HotWinters等单一预测算法,以及通过引入搜索指数等消费者行为数据作为预测变量等无法达到汽车品牌销量预测精度的情况下,基于销量数据特征遴选出HotWinters、Prophet、LightGBM三个预测模型,并自主构建了Musgrave方法,以此四个算法构建了组合预测模型,并结合熵值法作为权重动态变化的方法,构建了“动态变权组合预测策略”。本策略使用“单地区多品牌维度、多品牌维度、多地区多品牌维度”三种方式进行六期预测并检验预测效果,结果表明三种方式预测误差中位数分别为7.50%、6.11%、9.61%,因此,本策略能够满足对具有复杂多变特征的数据进行预测的需要。 展开更多
关键词 动态变权 组合预测 musgrave 熵值法
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When will it end? Long-lived intracontinental reactivation in central Australia
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作者 Raphael Quentin de Gromard Christopher L.Kirkland +7 位作者 Heather M.Howard Michael T.D.Wingate Fred Jourdan Brent I.A.Mc Innes Martin Danisik Noreen J.Evans Bradley J.McDonald R.Hugh Smithies 《Geoscience Frontiers》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2019年第1期149-164,共16页
The post-Mesoproterozoic tectonometamorphic history of the Musgrave Province, central Australia, has previously been solely attributed to intracontinental compressional deformation during the 580 -520 Ma Petermann Oro... The post-Mesoproterozoic tectonometamorphic history of the Musgrave Province, central Australia, has previously been solely attributed to intracontinental compressional deformation during the 580 -520 Ma Petermann Orogeny. However, our new structurally controlled multi-mineral geochronology results,from two north-trending transects, indicate protracted reactivation of the Australian continental interior over ca. 715 million years. The earliest events are identified in the hinterland of the orogen along the western transect. The first tectonothermal event, at ca. 715 Ma, is indicated by40 Ar/39 Ar muscovite and U e Pb titanite ages. Another previously unrecognised tectonometamorphic event is dated at ca. 630 Ma by Ue Pb analyses of metamorphic zircon rims. This event was followed by continuous cooling and exhumation of the hinterland and core of the orogen along numerous faults, including the Woodroffe Thrust,from ca. 625 Ma to 565 Ma as indicated by muscovite, biotite, and hornblende40 Ar/39 Ar cooling ages. We therefore propose that the Petermann Orogeny commenced as early as ca. 630 Ma. Along the eastern transect,40 Ar/39 Ar muscovite and zircon(Ue Th)/He data indicate exhumation of the foreland fold and thrust system to shallow crustal levels between ca. 550 Ma and 520 Ma, while the core of the orogen was undergoing exhumation to mid-crustal levels and cooling below 600-660℃. Subsequent cooling to 150 -220℃ of the core of the orogen occurred between ca. 480 Ma and 400 Ma(zircon [Ue Th]/He data)during reactivation of the Woodroffe Thrust, coincident with the 450 -300 Ma Alice Springs Orogeny.Exhumation of the footwall of the Woodroffe Thrust to shallow depths occurred at ca. 200 Ma. More recent tectonic activity is also evident as on the 21 May, 2016(Sydney date), a magnitude 6.1 earthquake occurred, and the resolved focal mechanism indicates that compressive stress and exhumation along the Woodroffe Thrust is continuing to the present day. Overall, these results demonstrate repeated amagmatic reactivation of the continental interior of Australia for ca. 715 million years, including at least 600 million years of reactivation along the Woodroffe Thrust alone. Estimated cooling rates agree with previously reported rates and suggest slow cooling of 0.9 -7.0℃/Ma in the core of the Petermann Orogen between ca. 570 Ma and 400 Ma. The long-lived, amagmatic, intracontinental reactivation of central Australia is a remarkable example of stress transmission, strain localization and cratonization-hindering processes that highlights the complexity of Continental Tectonics with regards to the rigid-plate paradigm of Plate Tectonics. 展开更多
关键词 Intracontinental deformation THERMOCHRONOLOGY Petermann orogen musgrave Province Plate tectonics CRATONIZATION
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The Amadeus Basin, central Australia
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作者 Christine J.Edgoose 《Episodes》 2012年第1期256-263,共8页
The Amadeus Basin of central Australia has a depositional history spanning the Neoproterozoic to the Devonian/Carboniferous.It was initiated as part of the Neoproterozoic Centralian Superbasin,which formed in an intra... The Amadeus Basin of central Australia has a depositional history spanning the Neoproterozoic to the Devonian/Carboniferous.It was initiated as part of the Neoproterozoic Centralian Superbasin,which formed in an intracratonic setting related to the break up of Rodinia.Sedimentation continued until the 580–540 Ma Petermann Orogeny,coinciding with the assembly of Gondwana,which resulted in the fragmentation of the superbasin into separate intracratonic basins.The Petermann Orogeny was focused in the Musgrave Province and the southern part of the Amadeus Basin,and involved significant N-directed shortening on largescale structures that involved both the basement and the overlying Neoproterozoic sedimentary rocks.It significantly transformed the basin architecture,with the development of major basin features that controlled subsequent sedimentation.Deposition of Paleozoic successions was largely concentrated in sub-basins and troughs in the N of the basin,where up to 14 km is preserved.Minor events or uplifts punctuated this depositional history and account for local disconformities and absent sections.The 450–300 Ma Alice Springs Orogeny was a multi-phase,intracratonic event concentrated in the Arunta Region and the northern part of the Amadeus Basin.Like the earlier Petermann Orogeny,the Alice Springs Orogeny involved both basement and basin sedimentary rocks,but with overall S-directed movement.Synorogenic sedimentation accompanied Mid–Late Devonian uplift,with Late Devonian–Carboniferous basin inversion terminating sedimentation,and folding the youngest successions.The Amadeus Basin has known reserves of U,minor historic and recent Au production,and is prospective for base metals,especially Cu,and phosphate.The Ordovician succession supports commercial gas production,and the Neoproterozoic succession is considered prospective for oil and gas. 展开更多
关键词 petermann orogenycoinciding intracratonic setting break up rodiniasedimentation intracratonic basinsthe petermann orogeny assembly gondwanawhich musgrave pr amadeus basin
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免征额变动对个人所得税累进性的影响 被引量:75
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作者 岳树民 卢艺 岳希明 《财贸经济》 CSSCI 北大核心 2011年第2期18-24,61,共8页
个人所得税是调节收入分配最直接的税种,累进性是其核心要义。近年来,中国个人所得税免征额的频繁变动,对个人所得税累进性产生了怎样的影响,是本文试图研究的内容。本文在2007年抽样调查数据的基础上,计算和模拟了在不同免征额条件下... 个人所得税是调节收入分配最直接的税种,累进性是其核心要义。近年来,中国个人所得税免征额的频繁变动,对个人所得税累进性产生了怎样的影响,是本文试图研究的内容。本文在2007年抽样调查数据的基础上,计算和模拟了在不同免征额条件下中国个人所得税的Musgrave和Thin指数及Kakwani指数这两个比较常用的测度税收累进性的指数。同时,通过对Kakwani指数分解,计算了税率结构和免征额对个人所得税累进性的贡献程度。 展开更多
关键词 免征额 musgrave和Thin指数 Kakwani指数 累进性
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