Pelagic fish are the most abundant species in upwelling regions,contributing 25%of total global fisheries production.Climate-driven changes in the marine environment play a crucial role in their population dynamics.Us...Pelagic fish are the most abundant species in upwelling regions,contributing 25%of total global fisheries production.Climate-driven changes in the marine environment play a crucial role in their population dynamics.Using Chilean jack mackerel(Trachurus murphyi)as an example,this study conducted simulations to quantify the impacts of environmental variations on the stock assessment.A habitat-based surplus production model was developed by integrating suitable habitat area into the model parameters carrying capacity(K)and intrinsic growth rate(r),with a suitable habitat area serving as the proxy for the environmental conditions for Chilean jack mackerel in the Southeast Pacific Ocean.The dynamics of Chilean jack mackerel stock and fisheries data were simulated,and four assessment models with different configurations were built to fit simulated data,with or without considering environmental effects.The results indicated that Joint K-r model,which integrated both parameters with the suitable habitat area index,outperformed the others by coming closest to the‘true'population dynamics.Ignoring habitat variations in the estimation model tended to overestimate biomass and underestimate harvest rate and reference points.Without observation and process error,the results were estimated with bias,while FMSY is relatively sensitive.This research illustrates the importance to consider random errors and environmental influences on populations,and provides foundation guidelines for future stock assessment.展开更多
根据2001—2007年我国渔船在东南太平洋海域的智利竹筴鱼生产统计数据、时空因子以及海表温度、叶绿素浓度、海表温度梯度等环境数据,利用广义可加模型(GAM)分析了智利竹筴鱼资源变动情况及其与时空和环境因子的关系.结果表明:GAM模型...根据2001—2007年我国渔船在东南太平洋海域的智利竹筴鱼生产统计数据、时空因子以及海表温度、叶绿素浓度、海表温度梯度等环境数据,利用广义可加模型(GAM)分析了智利竹筴鱼资源变动情况及其与时空和环境因子的关系.结果表明:GAM模型对单位捕捞努力量渔获量(catch per unit effort,CPUE)总偏差解释率为31.47%;竹筴鱼生产具有明显的季节变化,主要集中在第17～41周,其中第25～31周的CPUE较高;东南太平洋智利竹筴鱼作业渔场集中在78°—98°W,30°—43.5°S之间,适宜海表温度为12℃～18℃,14℃～16℃最适宜,适宜叶绿素浓度在0.09～0.18mg·m-3,海表温度梯度在0.3℃～1.9℃.逐步建模法结果表明,影响竹筴鱼资源丰度的因子按重要性从大到小依次为周次、年份、海表温度、经度、纬度、叶绿素浓度和海表温度梯度.展开更多
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2019YFD0901404)。
文摘Pelagic fish are the most abundant species in upwelling regions,contributing 25%of total global fisheries production.Climate-driven changes in the marine environment play a crucial role in their population dynamics.Using Chilean jack mackerel(Trachurus murphyi)as an example,this study conducted simulations to quantify the impacts of environmental variations on the stock assessment.A habitat-based surplus production model was developed by integrating suitable habitat area into the model parameters carrying capacity(K)and intrinsic growth rate(r),with a suitable habitat area serving as the proxy for the environmental conditions for Chilean jack mackerel in the Southeast Pacific Ocean.The dynamics of Chilean jack mackerel stock and fisheries data were simulated,and four assessment models with different configurations were built to fit simulated data,with or without considering environmental effects.The results indicated that Joint K-r model,which integrated both parameters with the suitable habitat area index,outperformed the others by coming closest to the‘true'population dynamics.Ignoring habitat variations in the estimation model tended to overestimate biomass and underestimate harvest rate and reference points.Without observation and process error,the results were estimated with bias,while FMSY is relatively sensitive.This research illustrates the importance to consider random errors and environmental influences on populations,and provides foundation guidelines for future stock assessment.
文摘根据2001—2007年我国渔船在东南太平洋海域的智利竹筴鱼生产统计数据、时空因子以及海表温度、叶绿素浓度、海表温度梯度等环境数据,利用广义可加模型(GAM)分析了智利竹筴鱼资源变动情况及其与时空和环境因子的关系.结果表明:GAM模型对单位捕捞努力量渔获量(catch per unit effort,CPUE)总偏差解释率为31.47%;竹筴鱼生产具有明显的季节变化,主要集中在第17～41周,其中第25～31周的CPUE较高;东南太平洋智利竹筴鱼作业渔场集中在78°—98°W,30°—43.5°S之间,适宜海表温度为12℃～18℃,14℃～16℃最适宜,适宜叶绿素浓度在0.09～0.18mg·m-3,海表温度梯度在0.3℃～1.9℃.逐步建模法结果表明,影响竹筴鱼资源丰度的因子按重要性从大到小依次为周次、年份、海表温度、经度、纬度、叶绿素浓度和海表温度梯度.
