Multivariate time-series forecasting(MTSF)plays an important role in diverse real-world applications.To achieve better accuracy in MTSF,time-series patterns in each variable and interrelationship patterns between vari...Multivariate time-series forecasting(MTSF)plays an important role in diverse real-world applications.To achieve better accuracy in MTSF,time-series patterns in each variable and interrelationship patterns between variables should be considered together.Recently,graph neural networks(GNNs)has gained much attention as they can learn both patterns using a graph.For accurate forecasting through GNN,a well-defined graph is required.However,existing GNNs have limitations in reflecting the spectral similarity and time delay between nodes,and consider all nodes with the same weight when constructing graph.In this paper,we propose a novel graph construction method that solves aforementioned limitations.We first calculate the Fourier transform-based spectral similarity and then update this similarity to reflect the time delay.Then,we weight each node according to the number of edge connections to get the final graph and utilize it to train the GNN model.Through experiments on various datasets,we demonstrated that the proposed method enhanced the performance of GNN-based MTSF models,and the proposed forecasting model achieve of up to 18.1%predictive performance improvement over the state-of-the-art model.展开更多
To address the insufficient prediction accuracy of multi-state parameters in electro-hydraulic servo material fatigue testing machines under complex loading and nonlinear coupling conditions,this paper proposes a mult...To address the insufficient prediction accuracy of multi-state parameters in electro-hydraulic servo material fatigue testing machines under complex loading and nonlinear coupling conditions,this paper proposes a multivariate sequence-to-sequence prediction model integrating a Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM)encoder,a Gated Recurrent Unit(GRU)decoder,and a multi-head attention mechanism.This approach enhances prediction accuracy and robustness across different control modes and load spectra by leveraging multi-channel inputs and cross-variable feature interactions,thereby capturing both short-term high-frequency dynamics and long-term slow drift characteristics.Experiments using long-term data from real test benches demonstrate that the model achieves a stable MSE below 0.01 on the validation set,with MAE and RMSE of approximately 0.018 and 0.052,respectively,and a coefficient of determination reaching 0.98.This significantly outperforms traditional identification methods and single RNN models.Sensitivity analysis indicates that a prediction stride of 10 achieves an optimal balance between accuracy and computational overhead.Ablation experiments validated the contribution of multi-head attention and decoder architecture to enhancing cross-variable coupling modeling capabilities.This model can be applied to residualdriven early warning in health monitoring,and risk assessment with scheme optimization in test design.It enables near-real-time deployment feasibility,providing a practical data-driven technical pathway for reliability assurance in advanced equipment.展开更多
Multivariate anomaly detection plays a critical role in maintaining the stable operation of information systems.However,in existing research,multivariate data are often influenced by various factors during the data co...Multivariate anomaly detection plays a critical role in maintaining the stable operation of information systems.However,in existing research,multivariate data are often influenced by various factors during the data collection process,resulting in temporal misalignment or displacement.Due to these factors,the node representations carry substantial noise,which reduces the adaptability of the multivariate coupled network structure and subsequently degrades anomaly detection performance.Accordingly,this study proposes a novel multivariate anomaly detection model grounded in graph structure learning.Firstly,a recommendation strategy is employed to identify strongly coupled variable pairs,which are then used to construct a recommendation-driven multivariate coupling network.Secondly,a multi-channel graph encoding layer is used to dynamically optimize the structural properties of the multivariate coupling network,while a multi-head attention mechanism enhances the spatial characteristics of the multivariate data.Finally,unsupervised anomaly detection is conducted using a dynamic threshold selection algorithm.Experimental results demonstrate that effectively integrating the structural and spatial features of multivariate data significantly mitigates anomalies caused by temporal dependency misalignment.展开更多
The operational Tropical Regional Atmospheric Model System(TRAMS)often underestimates initial typhoon intensity when using the global analysis field as the initial condition.The TRAMS tropical cyclone(TC)initializatio...The operational Tropical Regional Atmospheric Model System(TRAMS)often underestimates initial typhoon intensity when using the global analysis field as the initial condition.The TRAMS tropical cyclone(TC)initialization scheme,developed based on the incremental analysis updates(IAU)technique,effectively reduces initial bias.However,the original IAU-based TC initialization scheme only adjusts the wind field at the analysis moment,with other variables adjusted implicitly under the model's constraints according to a gradually inserted wind increment(named“univariate adjustment scheme”hereafter).The univariate adjustment scheme requires approximately 3 h to reach a dynamic equilibrium state,which constrains the assimilation of hourly TC observations and causes excessive dissipation of meaningful short-wave information in adjustment increments.To address this limitation,this study develops a multivariate adjustment IAU-based TC initialization scheme that incorporates gradient wind balance and hydrostatic balance as its largescale constraints.Numerical experiments with TC Hato(2017)demonstrate that the multivariate adjustment scheme reduces the IAU relaxation time to 1 h while marginally improving forecast skill.These findings are consistently replicated across 12 additional TC cases.The development of the IAU-based multivariate adjustment initialization scheme establishes a foundation for 4-D initialization using hourly TC observations.展开更多
Establishing a Regional Marine Innovation Ecosystem(RMIE)is crucial for advancing China’s maritime power strategy.Concurrently,developing a competitive RMIE serves as a strategic lever to enhance the global competiti...Establishing a Regional Marine Innovation Ecosystem(RMIE)is crucial for advancing China’s maritime power strategy.Concurrently,developing a competitive RMIE serves as a strategic lever to enhance the global competitiveness of China’s marine science sector.However,research on the competitiveness of RMIE is limited.To this end,this study constructs an evaluation index system based on ecological niche theory to assess the competitiveness of RMIE in China from 2008 to 2020.The findings indicate generally fluctuating upward trends in RMIE’s competitiveness,with Shandong,Jiangsu,and Guangdong showing relatively strong positions.Notably,there are significant intra-regional imbalances and inter-regional asynchrony in RMIE’s competitiveness across China’s three major marine economic circles.Recognizing that forecasting RMIE competitiveness can inform policy formulation,this paper proposes a systematic multivariate grey interval prediction model that incorporates spatial proximity effects.This model effectively captures the interval and uncertainty characteristics of RMIE’s competitiveness while considering spatial relationships among regions.Results from comparative analysis,robustness tests,and sensitivity analysis demonstrate its superior applicability and forecasting accuracy.Additionally,interval forecasts and scenario analyses suggest that RMIE competitiveness will maintain stable growth,although unbalanced and unsynchronized development is likely to persist.Overall,the approach developed for evaluating and forecasting RMIE competitiveness offers valuable insights for effective policy formulation.展开更多
The rapid integration of Internet of Things(IoT)technologies is reshaping the global energy landscape by deploying smart meters that enable high-resolution consumption monitoring,two-way communication,and advanced met...The rapid integration of Internet of Things(IoT)technologies is reshaping the global energy landscape by deploying smart meters that enable high-resolution consumption monitoring,two-way communication,and advanced metering infrastructure services.However,this digital transformation also exposes power system to evolving threats,ranging from cyber intrusions and electricity theft to device malfunctions,and the unpredictable nature of these anomalies,coupled with the scarcity of labeled fault data,makes realtime detection exceptionally challenging.To address these difficulties,a real-time decision support framework is presented for smart meter anomality detection that leverages rolling time windows and two self-supervised contrastive learning modules.The first module synthesizes diverse negative samples to overcome the lack of labeled anomalies,while the second captures intrinsic temporal patterns for enhanced contextual discrimination.The end-to-end framework continuously updates its model with rolling updated meter data to deliver timely identification of emerging abnormal behaviors in evolving grids.Extensive evaluations on eight publicly available smart meter datasets over seven diverse abnormal patterns testing demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed full framework,achieving average recall and F1 score of more than 0.85.展开更多
It is crucial to predict future mechanical behaviors for the prevention of structural disasters.Especially for underground construction,the structural mechanical behaviors are affected by multiple internal and externa...It is crucial to predict future mechanical behaviors for the prevention of structural disasters.Especially for underground construction,the structural mechanical behaviors are affected by multiple internal and external factors due to the complex conditions.Given that the existing models fail to take into account all the factors and accurate prediction of the multiple time series simultaneously is difficult using these models,this study proposed an improved prediction model through the autoencoder fused long-and short-term time-series network driven by the mass number of monitoring data.Then,the proposed model was formalized on multiple time series of strain monitoring data.Also,the discussion analysis with a classical baseline and an ablation experiment was conducted to verify the effectiveness of the prediction model.As the results indicate,the proposed model shows obvious superiority in predicting the future mechanical behaviors of structures.As a case study,the presented model was applied to the Nanjing Dinghuaimen tunnel to predict the stain variation on a different time scale in the future.展开更多
Red tide is an ecological disaster caused by the excessive proliferation of photosynthetic algae in the ocean.The frequent occurrences of red tide have brought serious harms to the marine aquaculture and caused signif...Red tide is an ecological disaster caused by the excessive proliferation of photosynthetic algae in the ocean.The frequent occurrences of red tide have brought serious harms to the marine aquaculture and caused significant economic losses to the marine industry.Red tide prediction can alleviate and even stop the long-term damages to marine ecosystems,which helps maintain the ecological balance of the ocean environment and contributes to the Sustainable Development Goal of“life below water”formulated by the United Nations.Aiming at red tide prediction using remote sensing technology,this study proposed a novel approach of red tide prediction using time-series hyperspectral observations,and examined the proposed method in the Xinghai Bay,China.Three spectral indices,namely the twoband ratio(TBR),the three-band spectral index(TBSI),and the fluorescence baseline height(FLH),were used to reduce the dimensionality of hyperspectral data and extract spectral features.Two machine learning models including the random forest(RF)and the support vector machine(SVM)were employed to predict whether red tide would occur on a target day based on the time-series spectral indices obtained in the previous days.By comparing and analyzing the prediction results of multiple machine learning models trained with different spectral indices and temporal lengths,it is found that both the RF and the SVM models can predict the red tide outbreaks at the accuracies over 0.9 using adequate temporal lengths of input data.When the temporal length of input data is limited,however,it is suggested to use the RF model,which accurately predicts red tide outbreaks using the temporal input of the 2-d TBSI.The proposed method is expected to provide oceanic and maritime agencies with early warnings on red tide outbreaks and ensure the safety of the coastal environment in large spatial scales using optical remote sensing technology.展开更多
As financial markets grow increasingly complex and volatile,timeseriesbased stock price forecasting has become a critical research focus in the field of finance.Traditional forecasting methods face significant limitat...As financial markets grow increasingly complex and volatile,timeseriesbased stock price forecasting has become a critical research focus in the field of finance.Traditional forecasting methods face significant limitations in handling nonlinear and high-dimensional data,while neural networks(NNs)have demonstrated great potential due to their powerful feature extraction and pattern recognition capabilities.Although several existing surveys discuss the applications of NNs in stock forecasting,they often lack a detailed examination of models that use time-series data as input and fail to cover the latest research developments.In response,this paper reviews relevant literature from 2015 to 2025 and classifies timeseriesbased stock forecasting methods into four categories:NNs,recurrent NNs(RNNs),convolutional NNs(CNNs),Transformers and other models.We analyze their performance under different market conditions,highlight strengths and limitations,and identify recent trends in model design.Our findings show that hybrid architectures and attention-based models consistently achieve superior forecasting stability and adaptability across volatile market scenarios.This survey offers a systematic reference for researchers and practitioners and outlines promising future research directions.展开更多
The zero coprime system equivalence is one of important research in the theory of multidimensional system equivalence,and is closely related to zero coprime equivalence of multivariate polynomial matrices.We first dis...The zero coprime system equivalence is one of important research in the theory of multidimensional system equivalence,and is closely related to zero coprime equivalence of multivariate polynomial matrices.We first discuss the relation between zero coprime equivalence and unimodular equivalence for polynomial matrices.Then,we investigate the zero coprime equivalence problem for several classes of polynomial matrices,some novel findings and criteria on reducing these matrices to their Smith normal forms are obtained.Finally,an example is provided to illustrate the main results.展开更多
The significance of accurately forecasting natural gas prices is far-reaching and significant,not only for the stable operation of the energy market,but also as a key element in promoting sustainable development and a...The significance of accurately forecasting natural gas prices is far-reaching and significant,not only for the stable operation of the energy market,but also as a key element in promoting sustainable development and addressing environmental challenges.However,natural gas prices are affected by multiple source factors,presenting complex,unstable nonlinear characteristics hindering the improvement of the prediction accuracy of existing models.To address this issue,this study proposes an innovative multivariate combined forecasting model for natural gas prices.Initially,the study meticulously identifies and introduces 16 variables impacting natural gas prices across five crucial dimensions:the production,marketing,commodities,political and economic indicators of the United States and temperature.Subsequently,this study employs the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator,grey relation analysis,and random forest for dimensionality reduction,effectively screening out the most influential key variables to serve as input features for the subsequent learning model.Building upon this foundation,a suite of machine learning models is constructed to ensure precise natural gas price prediction.To further elevate the predictive performance,an intelligent algorithm for parameter optimization is incorporated,addressing potential limitations of individual models.To thoroughly assess the prediction accuracy of the proposed model,this study conducts three experiments using monthly natural gas trading prices.These experiments incorporate 19 benchmark models for comparative analysis,utilizing five evaluation metrics to quantify forecasting effectiveness.Furthermore,this study conducts in-depth validation of the proposed model's effectiveness through hypothesis testing,discussions on the improvement ratio of forecasting performance,and case studies on other energy prices.The empirical results demonstrate that the multivariate combined forecasting method developed in this study surpasses other comparative models in forecasting accuracy.It offers new perspectives and methodologies for natural gas price forecasting while also providing valuable insights for other energy price forecasting studies.展开更多
Recently,the outbreak and spread of larch caterpillar(Dendrolimus superans)pests have emerged as significant contributors to forest degradation in the Changbai Mountains,China.Understanding the spatiotemporal distribu...Recently,the outbreak and spread of larch caterpillar(Dendrolimus superans)pests have emerged as significant contributors to forest degradation in the Changbai Mountains,China.Understanding the spatiotemporal distribution patterns of these pests is crucial for effective management and protection of forest ecosystems.This study proposes a pest monitoring approach based on Sentinel imagery.Through time-series analysis,we extracted pest-sensitive features and developed a random forest classifier that integrated Sentinel-1,Sentinel-2,and field sampling data from 2019–2023 to monitor larch caterpillar pests in the Changbai Mountains National Nature Reserve(CMNNR),Northeast China.Our findings indicated that bands green(B3),near-infrared(B8),short wave infrared(B11 and B12)from Sentinel-2 remote sensing images exhibited notable discriminative capabilities for identifying larch caterpillar pests.Specifically,the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI)at the end of the growing season emerged as the most valuable feature for pest extraction.Incorporating Synthetic Aperture Radar(SAR)features along with optical data marginally enhances model performance.Furthermore,our approach unveiled the outbreak of larch caterpillar pests,achieving classification map with overall accuracy exceeding 85%and Kappa coefficient surpassing 0.8 for five study years.The pest outbreak began in 2019 and progressively intensified over time.In September 2019,the affected area spanned 114.23 km^(2).The infested area exhibited a declining trend from 2020 to 2023.This study introduces a novel method for the high-precision identification of larch caterpillar pests,offering technical advancements and theoretical underpinnings to support forest management strategies.展开更多
Oil–water two-phase flow patterns in a horizontal pipe are analyzed with a 16-electrode electrical resistance tomography(ERT) system. The measurement data of the ERT are treated as a multivariate time-series, thus th...Oil–water two-phase flow patterns in a horizontal pipe are analyzed with a 16-electrode electrical resistance tomography(ERT) system. The measurement data of the ERT are treated as a multivariate time-series, thus the information extracted from each electrode represents the local phase distribution and fraction change at that location. The multivariate maximum Lyapunov exponent(MMLE) is extracted from the 16-dimension time-series to demonstrate the change of flow pattern versus the superficial velocity ratio of oil to water. The correlation dimension of the multivariate time-series is further introduced to jointly characterize and finally separate the flow patterns with MMLE. The change of flow patterns with superficial oil velocity at different water superficial velocities is studied with MMLE and correlation dimension, respectively, and the flow pattern transition can also be characterized with these two features. The proposed MMLE and correlation dimension map could effectively separate the flow patterns, thus is an effective tool for flow pattern identification and transition analysis.展开更多
The methods to determine time delays and embedding dimensions in the phase space delay reconstruction of multivariate chaotic time series are proposed. Three nonlinear prediction methods of multivariate chaotic tim...The methods to determine time delays and embedding dimensions in the phase space delay reconstruction of multivariate chaotic time series are proposed. Three nonlinear prediction methods of multivariate chaotic time series including local mean prediction, local linear prediction and BP neural networks prediction are considered. The simulation results obtained by the Lorenz system show that no matter what nonlinear prediction method is used, the prediction error of multivariate chaotic time series is much smaller than the prediction error of univariate time series, even if half of the data of univariate time series are used in multivariate time series. The results also verify that methods to determine the time delays and the embedding dimensions are correct from the view of minimizing the prediction error.展开更多
[Objective] The plankton and macrobenthos samples in municipal polluted river were analyzed by different methods, so as to explore the method suitable for biological data analysis in heavy polluted area. [Method] Shan...[Objective] The plankton and macrobenthos samples in municipal polluted river were analyzed by different methods, so as to explore the method suitable for biological data analysis in heavy polluted area. [Method] Shannon-Wiener diversity index, cluster analysis of multivariate statistical analysis and MDS （Non-matric Multi- dimentional Scaling）analysis were used to analyze biological data of phytoplankton, zooplankton and Zoobenthos collected from the representative municipal polluted river in Pearl River Delta. The sediment samples were also collected to determine. Pb, Cd, Hg, Cr, As, Cu, Ni, Zn, as well as CODe, and NH3-N of porewater. Hakanson potential ecological risk index method was used to evaluate the ecological risk. [Re- suit] Shannon-Wiener diversity index analysis results can not effectively reflect the difference of pollution status of various stations in heavy polluted area; despite the presence of some problems, multivariate analysis method is superior to the Shannon-Wiener diversity index method in biological monitoring of heavy polluted river in the city. [Conclusion] The paper provided theoretical basis for biological data analysis in heavy polluted area.展开更多
The analysis result of absolute degree of grey incidence for multivariate time series is often inconsistent with the qualitative analysis. To overcome this shortage, a multivariate absolute degree of grey incidence ba...The analysis result of absolute degree of grey incidence for multivariate time series is often inconsistent with the qualitative analysis. To overcome this shortage, a multivariate absolute degree of grey incidence based on distribution characteristics of points is proposed. Based on the geometric description of multivariate time se- ries, the neighborhood extrema are extracted in the different regions, and a characteristic point set is constructed. Then according to the distribution of the characteristic point set, a characteristic point sequence reflecting the ge- ometric features of multivariate time series is obtained. The incidence analysis between multivariate time series is transformed into the relational analysis between characteristic point sequences, and a grey incidence model is established. The model possesses the properties of translational invariance, transpose and rank transform invari- ance, and satisfies the grey incidence analysis axioms. Finally, two cases are studied and the results prove the ef- fectiveness of the model.展开更多
This paper considers the upper orthant and extremal tail dependence indices for multivariate t-copula. Where, the multivariate t-copula is defined under a correlation structure. The explicit representations of the tai...This paper considers the upper orthant and extremal tail dependence indices for multivariate t-copula. Where, the multivariate t-copula is defined under a correlation structure. The explicit representations of the tail dependence parameters are deduced since the copula of continuous variables is invariant under strictly increasing transformation about the random variables, which are more simple than those obtained in previous research. Then, the local monotonicity of these indices about the correlation coefficient is discussed, and it is concluded that the upper extremal dependence index increases with the correlation coefficient, but the monotonicity of the upper orthant tail dependence index is complex. Some simulations are performed by the Monte Carlo method to verify the obtained results, which are found to be satisfactory. Meanwhile, it is concluded that the obtained conclusions can be extended to any distribution family in which the generating random variable has a regularly varying distribution.展开更多
基金supported by Energy Cloud R&D Program(grant number:2019M3F2A1073184)through the National Research Foundation of Korea(NRF)funded by the Ministry of Science and ICT.
文摘Multivariate time-series forecasting(MTSF)plays an important role in diverse real-world applications.To achieve better accuracy in MTSF,time-series patterns in each variable and interrelationship patterns between variables should be considered together.Recently,graph neural networks(GNNs)has gained much attention as they can learn both patterns using a graph.For accurate forecasting through GNN,a well-defined graph is required.However,existing GNNs have limitations in reflecting the spectral similarity and time delay between nodes,and consider all nodes with the same weight when constructing graph.In this paper,we propose a novel graph construction method that solves aforementioned limitations.We first calculate the Fourier transform-based spectral similarity and then update this similarity to reflect the time delay.Then,we weight each node according to the number of edge connections to get the final graph and utilize it to train the GNN model.Through experiments on various datasets,we demonstrated that the proposed method enhanced the performance of GNN-based MTSF models,and the proposed forecasting model achieve of up to 18.1%predictive performance improvement over the state-of-the-art model.
基金supported by Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC),Grant number 5247052693.
文摘To address the insufficient prediction accuracy of multi-state parameters in electro-hydraulic servo material fatigue testing machines under complex loading and nonlinear coupling conditions,this paper proposes a multivariate sequence-to-sequence prediction model integrating a Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM)encoder,a Gated Recurrent Unit(GRU)decoder,and a multi-head attention mechanism.This approach enhances prediction accuracy and robustness across different control modes and load spectra by leveraging multi-channel inputs and cross-variable feature interactions,thereby capturing both short-term high-frequency dynamics and long-term slow drift characteristics.Experiments using long-term data from real test benches demonstrate that the model achieves a stable MSE below 0.01 on the validation set,with MAE and RMSE of approximately 0.018 and 0.052,respectively,and a coefficient of determination reaching 0.98.This significantly outperforms traditional identification methods and single RNN models.Sensitivity analysis indicates that a prediction stride of 10 achieves an optimal balance between accuracy and computational overhead.Ablation experiments validated the contribution of multi-head attention and decoder architecture to enhancing cross-variable coupling modeling capabilities.This model can be applied to residualdriven early warning in health monitoring,and risk assessment with scheme optimization in test design.It enables near-real-time deployment feasibility,providing a practical data-driven technical pathway for reliability assurance in advanced equipment.
基金supported by Natural Science Foundation of Qinghai Province(2025-ZJ-994M)Scientific Research Innovation Capability Support Project for Young Faculty(SRICSPYF-BS2025007)National Natural Science Foundation of China(62566050).
文摘Multivariate anomaly detection plays a critical role in maintaining the stable operation of information systems.However,in existing research,multivariate data are often influenced by various factors during the data collection process,resulting in temporal misalignment or displacement.Due to these factors,the node representations carry substantial noise,which reduces the adaptability of the multivariate coupled network structure and subsequently degrades anomaly detection performance.Accordingly,this study proposes a novel multivariate anomaly detection model grounded in graph structure learning.Firstly,a recommendation strategy is employed to identify strongly coupled variable pairs,which are then used to construct a recommendation-driven multivariate coupling network.Secondly,a multi-channel graph encoding layer is used to dynamically optimize the structural properties of the multivariate coupling network,while a multi-head attention mechanism enhances the spatial characteristics of the multivariate data.Finally,unsupervised anomaly detection is conducted using a dynamic threshold selection algorithm.Experimental results demonstrate that effectively integrating the structural and spatial features of multivariate data significantly mitigates anomalies caused by temporal dependency misalignment.
基金supported by the National University of Defense Technology(NUDT)Research Initiation Funding for High-Level Scientific and Technological Innovative Talents(202402-YJRC-LJ-001)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.U2142213)+1 种基金the Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation of Guangdong Province(Grants 2025A1515011835,2022A1515011870)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42305167)。
文摘The operational Tropical Regional Atmospheric Model System(TRAMS)often underestimates initial typhoon intensity when using the global analysis field as the initial condition.The TRAMS tropical cyclone(TC)initialization scheme,developed based on the incremental analysis updates(IAU)technique,effectively reduces initial bias.However,the original IAU-based TC initialization scheme only adjusts the wind field at the analysis moment,with other variables adjusted implicitly under the model's constraints according to a gradually inserted wind increment(named“univariate adjustment scheme”hereafter).The univariate adjustment scheme requires approximately 3 h to reach a dynamic equilibrium state,which constrains the assimilation of hourly TC observations and causes excessive dissipation of meaningful short-wave information in adjustment increments.To address this limitation,this study develops a multivariate adjustment IAU-based TC initialization scheme that incorporates gradient wind balance and hydrostatic balance as its largescale constraints.Numerical experiments with TC Hato(2017)demonstrate that the multivariate adjustment scheme reduces the IAU relaxation time to 1 h while marginally improving forecast skill.These findings are consistently replicated across 12 additional TC cases.The development of the IAU-based multivariate adjustment initialization scheme establishes a foundation for 4-D initialization using hourly TC observations.
基金National Social Science Fund of China,No.24BTJ037Significant Project of the National Social Science Foundation of China,No.23&ZD102+1 种基金The Key Research Base for Philosophy and Social Sciences in Hangzhou:ESG and Sustainable Development Research Center,No.25JD053Zhejiang Provincial Statistical Scientific Research Project,No.25TJZZ12。
文摘Establishing a Regional Marine Innovation Ecosystem(RMIE)is crucial for advancing China’s maritime power strategy.Concurrently,developing a competitive RMIE serves as a strategic lever to enhance the global competitiveness of China’s marine science sector.However,research on the competitiveness of RMIE is limited.To this end,this study constructs an evaluation index system based on ecological niche theory to assess the competitiveness of RMIE in China from 2008 to 2020.The findings indicate generally fluctuating upward trends in RMIE’s competitiveness,with Shandong,Jiangsu,and Guangdong showing relatively strong positions.Notably,there are significant intra-regional imbalances and inter-regional asynchrony in RMIE’s competitiveness across China’s three major marine economic circles.Recognizing that forecasting RMIE competitiveness can inform policy formulation,this paper proposes a systematic multivariate grey interval prediction model that incorporates spatial proximity effects.This model effectively captures the interval and uncertainty characteristics of RMIE’s competitiveness while considering spatial relationships among regions.Results from comparative analysis,robustness tests,and sensitivity analysis demonstrate its superior applicability and forecasting accuracy.Additionally,interval forecasts and scenario analyses suggest that RMIE competitiveness will maintain stable growth,although unbalanced and unsynchronized development is likely to persist.Overall,the approach developed for evaluating and forecasting RMIE competitiveness offers valuable insights for effective policy formulation.
文摘The rapid integration of Internet of Things(IoT)technologies is reshaping the global energy landscape by deploying smart meters that enable high-resolution consumption monitoring,two-way communication,and advanced metering infrastructure services.However,this digital transformation also exposes power system to evolving threats,ranging from cyber intrusions and electricity theft to device malfunctions,and the unpredictable nature of these anomalies,coupled with the scarcity of labeled fault data,makes realtime detection exceptionally challenging.To address these difficulties,a real-time decision support framework is presented for smart meter anomality detection that leverages rolling time windows and two self-supervised contrastive learning modules.The first module synthesizes diverse negative samples to overcome the lack of labeled anomalies,while the second captures intrinsic temporal patterns for enhanced contextual discrimination.The end-to-end framework continuously updates its model with rolling updated meter data to deliver timely identification of emerging abnormal behaviors in evolving grids.Extensive evaluations on eight publicly available smart meter datasets over seven diverse abnormal patterns testing demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed full framework,achieving average recall and F1 score of more than 0.85.
基金National Key Research and Development Program of China,Grant/Award Number:2018YFB2101003National Natural Science Foundation of China,Grant/Award Numbers:51991395,U1806226,51778033,51822802,71901011,U1811463,51991391Science and Technology Major Project of Beijing,Grant/Award Number:Z191100002519012。
文摘It is crucial to predict future mechanical behaviors for the prevention of structural disasters.Especially for underground construction,the structural mechanical behaviors are affected by multiple internal and external factors due to the complex conditions.Given that the existing models fail to take into account all the factors and accurate prediction of the multiple time series simultaneously is difficult using these models,this study proposed an improved prediction model through the autoencoder fused long-and short-term time-series network driven by the mass number of monitoring data.Then,the proposed model was formalized on multiple time series of strain monitoring data.Also,the discussion analysis with a classical baseline and an ablation experiment was conducted to verify the effectiveness of the prediction model.As the results indicate,the proposed model shows obvious superiority in predicting the future mechanical behaviors of structures.As a case study,the presented model was applied to the Nanjing Dinghuaimen tunnel to predict the stain variation on a different time scale in the future.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract No.42406188the Natural Science Foundation of Liaoning Province under contract No.2024-BS-022+1 种基金the Dalian High-Level Talent Innovation Program under contract No.2022RG02the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities under contract No.3132025107.
文摘Red tide is an ecological disaster caused by the excessive proliferation of photosynthetic algae in the ocean.The frequent occurrences of red tide have brought serious harms to the marine aquaculture and caused significant economic losses to the marine industry.Red tide prediction can alleviate and even stop the long-term damages to marine ecosystems,which helps maintain the ecological balance of the ocean environment and contributes to the Sustainable Development Goal of“life below water”formulated by the United Nations.Aiming at red tide prediction using remote sensing technology,this study proposed a novel approach of red tide prediction using time-series hyperspectral observations,and examined the proposed method in the Xinghai Bay,China.Three spectral indices,namely the twoband ratio(TBR),the three-band spectral index(TBSI),and the fluorescence baseline height(FLH),were used to reduce the dimensionality of hyperspectral data and extract spectral features.Two machine learning models including the random forest(RF)and the support vector machine(SVM)were employed to predict whether red tide would occur on a target day based on the time-series spectral indices obtained in the previous days.By comparing and analyzing the prediction results of multiple machine learning models trained with different spectral indices and temporal lengths,it is found that both the RF and the SVM models can predict the red tide outbreaks at the accuracies over 0.9 using adequate temporal lengths of input data.When the temporal length of input data is limited,however,it is suggested to use the RF model,which accurately predicts red tide outbreaks using the temporal input of the 2-d TBSI.The proposed method is expected to provide oceanic and maritime agencies with early warnings on red tide outbreaks and ensure the safety of the coastal environment in large spatial scales using optical remote sensing technology.
文摘As financial markets grow increasingly complex and volatile,timeseriesbased stock price forecasting has become a critical research focus in the field of finance.Traditional forecasting methods face significant limitations in handling nonlinear and high-dimensional data,while neural networks(NNs)have demonstrated great potential due to their powerful feature extraction and pattern recognition capabilities.Although several existing surveys discuss the applications of NNs in stock forecasting,they often lack a detailed examination of models that use time-series data as input and fail to cover the latest research developments.In response,this paper reviews relevant literature from 2015 to 2025 and classifies timeseriesbased stock forecasting methods into four categories:NNs,recurrent NNs(RNNs),convolutional NNs(CNNs),Transformers and other models.We analyze their performance under different market conditions,highlight strengths and limitations,and identify recent trends in model design.Our findings show that hybrid architectures and attention-based models consistently achieve superior forecasting stability and adaptability across volatile market scenarios.This survey offers a systematic reference for researchers and practitioners and outlines promising future research directions.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(12271154)the Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province(2022JJ30234)the Postgraduate Scientific Research Innovation Project of Hunan Province(CX20231032)。
文摘The zero coprime system equivalence is one of important research in the theory of multidimensional system equivalence,and is closely related to zero coprime equivalence of multivariate polynomial matrices.We first discuss the relation between zero coprime equivalence and unimodular equivalence for polynomial matrices.Then,we investigate the zero coprime equivalence problem for several classes of polynomial matrices,some novel findings and criteria on reducing these matrices to their Smith normal forms are obtained.Finally,an example is provided to illustrate the main results.
基金supported by the funding from the Humanities and Social Science Fund of Ministry of Education of China(No.22YJCZH028)National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.72303001)+3 种基金Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(No.JUSRP124043)Anhui Provincial Excellent Young Scientists Fund for Universities(No.2024AH030001)Anhui Education Department Excellent Young Teachers Fund(No.YQYB2024021)Basic Research Program of Jiangsu(No.BK20251593)。
文摘The significance of accurately forecasting natural gas prices is far-reaching and significant,not only for the stable operation of the energy market,but also as a key element in promoting sustainable development and addressing environmental challenges.However,natural gas prices are affected by multiple source factors,presenting complex,unstable nonlinear characteristics hindering the improvement of the prediction accuracy of existing models.To address this issue,this study proposes an innovative multivariate combined forecasting model for natural gas prices.Initially,the study meticulously identifies and introduces 16 variables impacting natural gas prices across five crucial dimensions:the production,marketing,commodities,political and economic indicators of the United States and temperature.Subsequently,this study employs the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator,grey relation analysis,and random forest for dimensionality reduction,effectively screening out the most influential key variables to serve as input features for the subsequent learning model.Building upon this foundation,a suite of machine learning models is constructed to ensure precise natural gas price prediction.To further elevate the predictive performance,an intelligent algorithm for parameter optimization is incorporated,addressing potential limitations of individual models.To thoroughly assess the prediction accuracy of the proposed model,this study conducts three experiments using monthly natural gas trading prices.These experiments incorporate 19 benchmark models for comparative analysis,utilizing five evaluation metrics to quantify forecasting effectiveness.Furthermore,this study conducts in-depth validation of the proposed model's effectiveness through hypothesis testing,discussions on the improvement ratio of forecasting performance,and case studies on other energy prices.The empirical results demonstrate that the multivariate combined forecasting method developed in this study surpasses other comparative models in forecasting accuracy.It offers new perspectives and methodologies for natural gas price forecasting while also providing valuable insights for other energy price forecasting studies.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42171407,42077242)Key Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42330607)。
文摘Recently,the outbreak and spread of larch caterpillar(Dendrolimus superans)pests have emerged as significant contributors to forest degradation in the Changbai Mountains,China.Understanding the spatiotemporal distribution patterns of these pests is crucial for effective management and protection of forest ecosystems.This study proposes a pest monitoring approach based on Sentinel imagery.Through time-series analysis,we extracted pest-sensitive features and developed a random forest classifier that integrated Sentinel-1,Sentinel-2,and field sampling data from 2019–2023 to monitor larch caterpillar pests in the Changbai Mountains National Nature Reserve(CMNNR),Northeast China.Our findings indicated that bands green(B3),near-infrared(B8),short wave infrared(B11 and B12)from Sentinel-2 remote sensing images exhibited notable discriminative capabilities for identifying larch caterpillar pests.Specifically,the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI)at the end of the growing season emerged as the most valuable feature for pest extraction.Incorporating Synthetic Aperture Radar(SAR)features along with optical data marginally enhances model performance.Furthermore,our approach unveiled the outbreak of larch caterpillar pests,achieving classification map with overall accuracy exceeding 85%and Kappa coefficient surpassing 0.8 for five study years.The pest outbreak began in 2019 and progressively intensified over time.In September 2019,the affected area spanned 114.23 km^(2).The infested area exhibited a declining trend from 2020 to 2023.This study introduces a novel method for the high-precision identification of larch caterpillar pests,offering technical advancements and theoretical underpinnings to support forest management strategies.
基金Projects(61227006,61473206) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(13TXSYJC40200) supported by Science and Technology Innovation of Tianjin,China
文摘Oil–water two-phase flow patterns in a horizontal pipe are analyzed with a 16-electrode electrical resistance tomography(ERT) system. The measurement data of the ERT are treated as a multivariate time-series, thus the information extracted from each electrode represents the local phase distribution and fraction change at that location. The multivariate maximum Lyapunov exponent(MMLE) is extracted from the 16-dimension time-series to demonstrate the change of flow pattern versus the superficial velocity ratio of oil to water. The correlation dimension of the multivariate time-series is further introduced to jointly characterize and finally separate the flow patterns with MMLE. The change of flow patterns with superficial oil velocity at different water superficial velocities is studied with MMLE and correlation dimension, respectively, and the flow pattern transition can also be characterized with these two features. The proposed MMLE and correlation dimension map could effectively separate the flow patterns, thus is an effective tool for flow pattern identification and transition analysis.
文摘The methods to determine time delays and embedding dimensions in the phase space delay reconstruction of multivariate chaotic time series are proposed. Three nonlinear prediction methods of multivariate chaotic time series including local mean prediction, local linear prediction and BP neural networks prediction are considered. The simulation results obtained by the Lorenz system show that no matter what nonlinear prediction method is used, the prediction error of multivariate chaotic time series is much smaller than the prediction error of univariate time series, even if half of the data of univariate time series are used in multivariate time series. The results also verify that methods to determine the time delays and the embedding dimensions are correct from the view of minimizing the prediction error.
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(41001341)Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province(9152800001000007)+1 种基金Open Fund ofState Key Laboratory of Subtropical Building Science(2011KB12)Basic Scientific Research Expenses Project of Central Universities(2012ZM0082)~~
文摘[Objective] The plankton and macrobenthos samples in municipal polluted river were analyzed by different methods, so as to explore the method suitable for biological data analysis in heavy polluted area. [Method] Shannon-Wiener diversity index, cluster analysis of multivariate statistical analysis and MDS （Non-matric Multi- dimentional Scaling）analysis were used to analyze biological data of phytoplankton, zooplankton and Zoobenthos collected from the representative municipal polluted river in Pearl River Delta. The sediment samples were also collected to determine. Pb, Cd, Hg, Cr, As, Cu, Ni, Zn, as well as CODe, and NH3-N of porewater. Hakanson potential ecological risk index method was used to evaluate the ecological risk. [Re- suit] Shannon-Wiener diversity index analysis results can not effectively reflect the difference of pollution status of various stations in heavy polluted area; despite the presence of some problems, multivariate analysis method is superior to the Shannon-Wiener diversity index method in biological monitoring of heavy polluted river in the city. [Conclusion] The paper provided theoretical basis for biological data analysis in heavy polluted area.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(71101043,70901041,71171113)the Joint Research Project of National Natural Science Foundation of China and Royal Society of UK(71111130211)+4 种基金the Major Program of National Funds of Social Science of China(10ZD&014,11&ZD168)the Doctoral Fundof Ministry of Education of China(20093218120032,200802870020)the Qinglan Project for Excellent Youth Teacherin Jiangsu Province(China)Research Funding in Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics(NR2011002)the Central University Scientific Research Expenses of HoHai University(2011B09914,2010B11114)~~
文摘The analysis result of absolute degree of grey incidence for multivariate time series is often inconsistent with the qualitative analysis. To overcome this shortage, a multivariate absolute degree of grey incidence based on distribution characteristics of points is proposed. Based on the geometric description of multivariate time se- ries, the neighborhood extrema are extracted in the different regions, and a characteristic point set is constructed. Then according to the distribution of the characteristic point set, a characteristic point sequence reflecting the ge- ometric features of multivariate time series is obtained. The incidence analysis between multivariate time series is transformed into the relational analysis between characteristic point sequences, and a grey incidence model is established. The model possesses the properties of translational invariance, transpose and rank transform invari- ance, and satisfies the grey incidence analysis axioms. Finally, two cases are studied and the results prove the ef- fectiveness of the model.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.11001052,11171065)the National Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province(No.BK2011058)the Science Foundation of Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications(No.JG00710JX57)
文摘This paper considers the upper orthant and extremal tail dependence indices for multivariate t-copula. Where, the multivariate t-copula is defined under a correlation structure. The explicit representations of the tail dependence parameters are deduced since the copula of continuous variables is invariant under strictly increasing transformation about the random variables, which are more simple than those obtained in previous research. Then, the local monotonicity of these indices about the correlation coefficient is discussed, and it is concluded that the upper extremal dependence index increases with the correlation coefficient, but the monotonicity of the upper orthant tail dependence index is complex. Some simulations are performed by the Monte Carlo method to verify the obtained results, which are found to be satisfactory. Meanwhile, it is concluded that the obtained conclusions can be extended to any distribution family in which the generating random variable has a regularly varying distribution.
