We consider the partially linear multiplicative model with monotonic constraint for the analysis of positive response data. We propose a constrained least product relative error (LPRE) estimation procedure for the mod...We consider the partially linear multiplicative model with monotonic constraint for the analysis of positive response data. We propose a constrained least product relative error (LPRE) estimation procedure for the model by means of B-spline basis expansion. We have also established asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators under regularity conditions. We finally provide numerical simulations and a real data application to assess the finite sample performance of the developed methodology.展开更多
In this paper,we study high-dimensional sparse multiplicative models for positive response data and propose a variable sorted active set(VSAS)algorithm for finding the L_(0)regularized least product relative error(LPR...In this paper,we study high-dimensional sparse multiplicative models for positive response data and propose a variable sorted active set(VSAS)algorithm for finding the L_(0)regularized least product relative error(LPRE)estimator.The VSAS algorithm is derived from the local quadratic approximation based on the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker(KKT)conditions of L_(0)-penalized LPRE objective function.Under the condition of restricted invertibility,we establish an explicit L∞upper bound for the sequence of solutions generated by the VSAS algorithm.We further obtain an optimal convergence rate for the proposed estimator with high probability in finite iterations.In addition,our estimator enjoys the oracle property with high probability if the target signal exceeds the detectable level.Finally,extensive simulations and two real-world applications are conducted to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposal.展开更多
Multiplicative multifractal process could well modal video traffic. The multiplier distributions in the multiplicatire multifractal model for video traffic are investigated and it is found that Gaussian is not suitabl...Multiplicative multifractal process could well modal video traffic. The multiplier distributions in the multiplicatire multifractal model for video traffic are investigated and it is found that Gaussian is not suitable for describing the multipliers on the small time scales. A new statistical distribution-symmetric Pareto distribution is introduced. It is applied instead of Gaussian for the multipliers on those scales. Based on that, the algorithm is updated so that symmetric pareto distribution and Gaussian distribution are used to model video traffic but on different time scales. The simulation results demonstrate that the algorithm could model video traffic more accurately.展开更多
Network modeling is an important approach in many fields in analyzing complex systems. Recently new series of methods have emerged, by using Kronecker product and similar tools to model real systems. One of such appro...Network modeling is an important approach in many fields in analyzing complex systems. Recently new series of methods have emerged, by using Kronecker product and similar tools to model real systems. One of such approaches is the multiplicative attribute graph(MAG) model, which generates networks based on category attributes of nodes. In this paper we try to extend this model into a continuous one, give an overview of its properties, and discuss some special cases related to real-world networks, as well as the influence of attribute distribution and affinity function respectively.展开更多
The Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO)is a key atmospheric component connecting global weather and climate.It func-tions as a primary source for subseasonal forecasts.Previous studies have highlighted the vital impact of ...The Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO)is a key atmospheric component connecting global weather and climate.It func-tions as a primary source for subseasonal forecasts.Previous studies have highlighted the vital impact of oceanic processes on MJO propagation.However,few existing MJO prediction approaches adequately consider these factors.This study determines the critical region for the oceanic processes affecting MJO propagation by utilizing 22-year Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data.By intro-ducing surface and subsurface oceanic temperature within this critical region into a lagged multiple linear regression model,the MJO forecasting skill is considerably optimized.This optimization leads to a 12 h enhancement in the forecasting skill of the first principal component and efficiently decreases prediction errors for the total predictions.Further analysis suggests that,during the years in which MJO events propagate across the Maritime Continent over a more southerly path,the optimized statistical forecasting model obtains better improvements in MJO prediction.展开更多
BACKGROUND Gastrointestinal diseases have complex etiologies and clinical presentations.An accurate diagnosis requires physicians to integrate diverse information,including medical history,laboratory test results,and ...BACKGROUND Gastrointestinal diseases have complex etiologies and clinical presentations.An accurate diagnosis requires physicians to integrate diverse information,including medical history,laboratory test results,and imaging findings.Existing artificial intelligence-assisted diagnostic tools are limited to single-modality information,resulting in recommendations that are often incomplete and may be associated with clinical or legal risks.AIM To develop and evaluate a collaborative multimodal large language model(LLM)framework for clinical decision-making in digestive diseases.METHODS In this observational study,DeepGut,a multimodal LLM collaborative diagnostic framework,was developed to integrate four distinct large models into a four-tiered structure.The framework sequentially accomplishes multimodal infor-mation extraction,logical“chain”construction,diagnostic and treatment suggestion generation,and risk analysis.The model was evaluated using objective metrics,which assess the reliability and comprehensiveness of model-generated results,and subjective expert opinions,which examine the effectiveness of the framework in assisting physicians.RESULTS The diagnostic and treatment recommendations generated by the DeepGut framework achieved exceptional performance,with a diagnostic accuracy of 97.8%,diagnostic completeness of 93.9%,treatment plan accuracy of 95.2%,and treatment plan completeness of 98.0%,significantly surpassing the capabilities of single-modal LLM-based diagnostic tools.Experts evaluating the framework commended the completeness,relevance,and logical coherence of its outputs.However,the collaborative multimodal LLM approach resulted in increased input and output token counts,leading to higher computational costs and extended diagnostic times.CONCLUSION The framework achieves successful integration of multimodal diagnostic data,demonstrating enhanced performance enabled by multimodal LLM collaboration,which opens new horizons for the clinical application of artificial intelligence-assisted technology.展开更多
Firstly,based on the data of air quality and the meteorological data in Baoding City from 2017 to 2021,the correlations of meteorological elements and pollutants with O_(3)concentration were explored to determine the ...Firstly,based on the data of air quality and the meteorological data in Baoding City from 2017 to 2021,the correlations of meteorological elements and pollutants with O_(3)concentration were explored to determine the forecast factors of forecast models.Secondly,the O_(3)-8h concentration in Baoding City in 2021 was predicted based on the constructed models of multiple linear regression(MLR),backward propagation neural network(BPNN),and auto regressive integrated moving average(ARIMA),and the predicted values were compared with the observed values to test their prediction effects.The results show that overall,the MLR,BPNN and ARIMA models were able to forecast the changing trend of O_(3)-8h concentration in Baoding in 2021,but the BPNN model gave better forecast results than the ARIMA and MLR models,especially for the prediction of the high values of O_(3)-8h concentration,and the correlation coefficients between the predicted values and the observed values were all higher than 0.9 during June-September.The mean error(ME),mean absolute error(MAE),and root mean square error(RMSE)of the predicted values and the observed values of daily O_(3)-8h concentration based on the BPNN model were 0.45,19.11 and 24.41μg/m 3,respectively,which were significantly better than those of the MLR and ARIMA models.The prediction effects of the MLR,BPNN and ARIMA models were the best at the pollution level,followed by the excellent level,and it was the worst at the good level.In comparison,the prediction effect of BPNN model was better than that of the MLR and ARIMA models as a whole,especially for the pollution and excellent levels.The TS scores of the BPNN model were all above 66%,and the PC values were above 86%.The BPNN model can forecast the changing trend of O_(3)concentration more accurately,and has a good practical application value,but at the same time,the predicted high values of O_(3)concentration should be appropriately increased according to error characteristics of the model.展开更多
To address the problem that a general augmented state Kalman filter or a two-stage Kalman filter cannot achieve satisfactory positioning performance when facing uncertain noise of the micro-electro-mechanical system（...To address the problem that a general augmented state Kalman filter or a two-stage Kalman filter cannot achieve satisfactory positioning performance when facing uncertain noise of the micro-electro-mechanical system（MEMS） inertial sensors, a novel interacting multiple model-based two-stage Kalman filter（IMM-TSKF） is proposed to adapt to the uncertain inertial sensor noise. Three bias filters are developed based on different noise characteristics to cover a wide range of noise levels. Then, an accurate estimation of biases is calculated by the interacting multiple model algorithm to correct the bias-free filter. Thus, the vehicle positioning system can achieve good performance when suffering from uncertain inertial sensor noise. The experimental results indicate that the average position error of the proposed IMMTSKF is 25% lower than that of the general TSKF.展开更多
In order to detect the deformation in real-time of the GPS time series and improve its reliability, the multiple Kalman filters model with shaping filter was proposed. Two problems were solved: firstly, because the GP...In order to detect the deformation in real-time of the GPS time series and improve its reliability, the multiple Kalman filters model with shaping filter was proposed. Two problems were solved: firstly, because the GPS real-time deformation series with a high sampling rate contain coloured noise, the multiple Kalman filter model requires the white noise, and the multiple Kalman filters model is augmented by a shaping filter in order to reduce the colored noise; secondly, the multiple Kalman filters model with shaping filter can detect the deformation epoch in real-time and improve the quality of GPS measurements for the real-time deformation applications. Based on the comparisons of the applications in different GPS time series with different models, the advantages of the proposed model were illustrated. The proposed model can reduce the colored noise, detect the smaller changes, and improve the precision of the detected deformation epoch.展开更多
To avoid missing track caused by the target maneuvers in automatic target tracking system, a new maneuvering target tracking technique called threshold interacting multiple model （TIMM） is proposed. This algorithm i...To avoid missing track caused by the target maneuvers in automatic target tracking system, a new maneuvering target tracking technique called threshold interacting multiple model （TIMM） is proposed. This algorithm is based on the interacting multiple model （IMM） method and applies a threshold controller to improve tracking accuracy. It is also applicable to other advanced algorithms of IMM. In this research, we also compare the position and velocity root mean square （RMS） errors of TIMM and IMM algorithms with two different examples. Simulation results show that the TIMM algorithm is superior to the traditional IMM alzorithm in estimation accuracy.展开更多
The aim of this study was to assay the polyphenols,flavonoid,polyphenol oxidase and phenylalnine ammonialyase which were relative to the anthocyanins synthesis of purple corn. The optimization of multiple linear regre...The aim of this study was to assay the polyphenols,flavonoid,polyphenol oxidase and phenylalnine ammonialyase which were relative to the anthocyanins synthesis of purple corn. The optimization of multiple linear regression model of anthocyanins synthesis was y=4.383 86-0.205 45x1＋5.479 638x2＋0.195 575x4. According to standard partial regression coefficient testing,the result indicated that polyphenols content was negatively correlated with anthocyanins and the relative influence to anthocyanins synthesis was-42.7%; flavonoid content and activity of polyphenol oxidase were positively correlated with anthocyanins of purple corn and the relative influence to anthocyanins synthesis were 71.45% and 73.32% respectively. There was no positive correlation between the activity of phenylalnine ammonialyase and anthocyanins of purple corn. The establishment of multiple linear regression model of anthocyanins synthesis was to provide theory foundation of producing anthocyanins in laboratory.展开更多
Aim To develop a practical target tracking algorithm for different motion modes. Methods After creation of the new model, it was implemented by computer simulation to prove its performance and compared with the of...Aim To develop a practical target tracking algorithm for different motion modes. Methods After creation of the new model, it was implemented by computer simulation to prove its performance and compared with the often-used current statistical model. Results The simulation results show that the new IMM (interactive multiple model) have low tracking error in both maneuVering segment and non^Inaneuwi segment while the current statistical model bas muCh higher tracking error in non-maneuvering segment. Conclusion In the point of trackintaccuracy, the new IMM method is much better than the current acceleration method. It can develop into a practical target hacking method.展开更多
Presented is a multiple model soft sensing method based on Affinity Propagation （AP）, Gaussian process （GP） and Bayesian committee machine （BCM）. AP clustering arithmetic is used to cluster training samples acco...Presented is a multiple model soft sensing method based on Affinity Propagation （AP）, Gaussian process （GP） and Bayesian committee machine （BCM）. AP clustering arithmetic is used to cluster training samples according to their operating points. Then, the sub-models are estimated by Gaussian Process Regression （GPR）. Finally, in order to get a global probabilistic prediction, Bayesian committee mactnne is used to combine the outputs of the sub-estimators. The proposed method has been applied to predict the light naphtha end point in hydrocracker fractionators. Practical applications indicate that it is useful for the online prediction of quality monitoring in chemical processes.展开更多
An Extended Kalman Filter（EKF） is commonly used to fuse raw Global Navigation Satellite System（GNSS） measurements and Inertial Navigation System（INS） derived measurements. However, the Conventional EKF（CEKF） s...An Extended Kalman Filter（EKF） is commonly used to fuse raw Global Navigation Satellite System（GNSS） measurements and Inertial Navigation System（INS） derived measurements. However, the Conventional EKF（CEKF） suffers the problem for which the uncertainty of the statistical properties to dynamic and measurement models will degrade the performance.In this research, an Adaptive Interacting Multiple Model（AIMM） filter is developed to enhance performance. The soft-switching property of Interacting Multiple Model（IMM） algorithm allows the adaptation between two levels of process noise, namely lower and upper bounds of the process noise. In particular, the Sage adaptive filtering is applied to adapt the measurement covariance on line. In addition, a classified measurement update strategy is utilized, which updates the pseudorange and Doppler observations sequentially. A field experiment was conducted to validate the proposed algorithm, the pseudorange and Doppler observations from Global Positioning System（GPS） and Bei Dou Navigation Satellite System（BDS） were post-processed in differential mode.The results indicate that decimeter-level positioning accuracy is achievable with AIMM for GPS/INS and GPS/BDS/INS configurations, and the position accuracy is improved by 35.8%, 34.3% and 33.9% for north, east and height components, respectively, compared to the CEKF counterpartfor GPS/BDS/INS. Degraded performance for BDS/INS is obtained due to the lower precision of BDS pseudorange observations.展开更多
In airborne tracking,the blind Doppler makes the target undetectable,resulting in tracking difficulties. In this paper,we studied most possible blind-Doppler cases and summed them up into two types:targets' intent...In airborne tracking,the blind Doppler makes the target undetectable,resulting in tracking difficulties. In this paper,we studied most possible blind-Doppler cases and summed them up into two types:targets' intentional tangential flying to radar and unintentional flying with large tangential speed. We proposed an interacting multiple model(IMM) particle filter which combines a constant velocity model and an acceleration model to handle maneuvering motions. We compared the IMM particle filter with a previous particle filter solution. Simulation results showed that the IMM particle filter outperforms the method in previous works in terms of tracking accuracy and continuity.展开更多
In this paper, an improved implementation of multiple model Gaussian mixture probability hypothesis density （MM-GM-PHD） filter is proposed. For maneuvering target tracking, based on joint distribution, the existing ...In this paper, an improved implementation of multiple model Gaussian mixture probability hypothesis density （MM-GM-PHD） filter is proposed. For maneuvering target tracking, based on joint distribution, the existing MM-GM-PHD filter is relatively complex. To simplify the filter, model conditioned distribution and model probability are used in the improved MM-GM-PHD filter. In the algorithm, every Gaussian components describing existing, birth and spawned targets are estimated by multiple model method. The final results of the Gaussian components are the fusion of multiple model estimations. The algorithm does not need to compute the joint PHD distribution and has a simpler computation procedure. Compared with single model GM-PHD, the algorithm gives more accurate estimation on the number and state of the targets. Compared with the existing MM-GM-PHD algorithm, it saves computation time by more than 30%. Moreover, it also outperforms the interacting multiple model joint probabilistic data association （IMMJPDA） filter in a relatively dense clutter environment.展开更多
Combining interacting multiple model （IMM） and unscented particle filter （UPF）, a new multiple model filtering algorithm is presented. Multiple models can be adapted to targets＇ high maneu- vering. Particle filte...Combining interacting multiple model （IMM） and unscented particle filter （UPF）, a new multiple model filtering algorithm is presented. Multiple models can be adapted to targets＇ high maneu- vering. Particle filter can be used to deal with the nonlinear or non-Gaussian problems and the unscented Kalman filter （UKF） can improve the approximate accuracy. Compared with other interacting multiple model algorithms in the simulations, the results demonstrate the validity of the new filtering method.展开更多
Rainfall is an important factor in estimating the event mean concentration （EMC） which is used to quantify the washed-off pollutant concentrations from non-point sources （NPSs）. Pollutant loads could also be calcu...Rainfall is an important factor in estimating the event mean concentration （EMC） which is used to quantify the washed-off pollutant concentrations from non-point sources （NPSs）. Pollutant loads could also be calculated using rainfall, catchment area and runoff coefficient. In this study, runoff quantity and quality data gathered from a 28-month monitoring conducted on the road and parking lot sites in Korea were evaluated using multiple linear regression （MLR） to develop equations for estimating pollutant loads and EMCs as a function of rainfall variables. The results revealed that total event rainfall and average rainfall intensity are possible predictors of pollutant loads. Overall, the models are indicators of the high uncertainties of NPSs; perhaps estimation of EMCs and loads could be accurately obtained by means of water quality sampling or a long term monitoring is needed to gather more data that can be used for the development of estimation models.展开更多
For a class of complex industrial processes with strong nonlinearity, serious coupling and uncertainty, a nonlinear decoupling proportional-integral-differential （PID） controller is proposed, which consists of a tra...For a class of complex industrial processes with strong nonlinearity, serious coupling and uncertainty, a nonlinear decoupling proportional-integral-differential （PID） controller is proposed, which consists of a traditional PID controller, a decoupling compensator and a feedforward compensator for the unmodeled dynamics. The parameters of such controller is selected based on the generalized minimum variance control law. The unmodeled dynamics is estimated and compensated by neural networks, a switching mechanism is introduced to improve tracking performance, then a nonlinear decoupling PID control algorithm is proposed. All signals in such switching system are globally bounded and the tracking error is convergent. Simulations show effectiveness of the algorithm.展开更多
Backgrounds:Evaluating the growth performance of pigs in real-time is laborious and expensive,thus mathematical models based on easily accessible variables are developed.Multiple regression(MR)is the most widely used ...Backgrounds:Evaluating the growth performance of pigs in real-time is laborious and expensive,thus mathematical models based on easily accessible variables are developed.Multiple regression(MR)is the most widely used tool to build prediction models in swine nutrition,while the artificial neural networks(ANN)model is reported to be more accurate than MR model in prediction performance.Therefore,the potential of ANN models in predicting the growth performance of pigs was evaluated and compared with MR models in this study.Results:Body weight(BW),net energy(NE)intake,standardized ileal digestible lysine(SID Lys)intake,and their quadratic terms were selected as input variables to predict ADG and F/G among 10 candidate variables.In the training phase,MR models showed high accuracy in both ADG and F/G prediction(R^(2)_(ADG)=0.929,R^(2)_(F/G)=0.886)while ANN models with 4,6 neurons and radial basis activation function yielded the best performance in ADG and F/G prediction(R^(2)_(ADG)=0.964,R^(2)_(F/G)=0.932).In the testing phase,these ANN models showed better accuracy in ADG prediction(CCC:0.976 vs.0.861,R^(2):0.951 vs.0.584),and F/G prediction(CCC:0.952 vs.0.900,R^(2):0.905 vs.0.821)compared with the MR models.Meanwhile,the“over-fitting”occurred in MR models but not in ANN models.On validation data from the animal trial,ANN models exhibited superiority over MR models in both ADG and F/G prediction(P<0.01).Moreover,the growth stages have a significant effect on the prediction accuracy of the models.Conclusion:Body weight,NE intake and SID Lys intake can be used as input variables to predict the growth performance of growing-finishing pigs,with trained ANN models are more flexible and accurate than MR models.Therefore,it is promising to use ANN models in related swine nutrition studies in the future.展开更多
文摘We consider the partially linear multiplicative model with monotonic constraint for the analysis of positive response data. We propose a constrained least product relative error (LPRE) estimation procedure for the model by means of B-spline basis expansion. We have also established asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators under regularity conditions. We finally provide numerical simulations and a real data application to assess the finite sample performance of the developed methodology.
基金supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for theCentralUniversities[grant number 2021CDJQY-047]National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 11801202].
文摘In this paper,we study high-dimensional sparse multiplicative models for positive response data and propose a variable sorted active set(VSAS)algorithm for finding the L_(0)regularized least product relative error(LPRE)estimator.The VSAS algorithm is derived from the local quadratic approximation based on the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker(KKT)conditions of L_(0)-penalized LPRE objective function.Under the condition of restricted invertibility,we establish an explicit L∞upper bound for the sequence of solutions generated by the VSAS algorithm.We further obtain an optimal convergence rate for the proposed estimator with high probability in finite iterations.In addition,our estimator enjoys the oracle property with high probability if the target signal exceeds the detectable level.Finally,extensive simulations and two real-world applications are conducted to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposal.
文摘Multiplicative multifractal process could well modal video traffic. The multiplier distributions in the multiplicatire multifractal model for video traffic are investigated and it is found that Gaussian is not suitable for describing the multipliers on the small time scales. A new statistical distribution-symmetric Pareto distribution is introduced. It is applied instead of Gaussian for the multipliers on those scales. Based on that, the algorithm is updated so that symmetric pareto distribution and Gaussian distribution are used to model video traffic but on different time scales. The simulation results demonstrate that the algorithm could model video traffic more accurately.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.61379074)the Zhejiang Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China(No.LZ12F02003)
文摘Network modeling is an important approach in many fields in analyzing complex systems. Recently new series of methods have emerged, by using Kronecker product and similar tools to model real systems. One of such approaches is the multiplicative attribute graph(MAG) model, which generates networks based on category attributes of nodes. In this paper we try to extend this model into a continuous one, give an overview of its properties, and discuss some special cases related to real-world networks, as well as the influence of attribute distribution and affinity function respectively.
基金supported by the National Key Program for Developing Basic Science(Nos.2022YFF0801702 and 2022YFE0106600)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.42175060 and 42175021)the Jiangsu Province Science Foundation(No.BK20250200302).
文摘The Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO)is a key atmospheric component connecting global weather and climate.It func-tions as a primary source for subseasonal forecasts.Previous studies have highlighted the vital impact of oceanic processes on MJO propagation.However,few existing MJO prediction approaches adequately consider these factors.This study determines the critical region for the oceanic processes affecting MJO propagation by utilizing 22-year Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data.By intro-ducing surface and subsurface oceanic temperature within this critical region into a lagged multiple linear regression model,the MJO forecasting skill is considerably optimized.This optimization leads to a 12 h enhancement in the forecasting skill of the first principal component and efficiently decreases prediction errors for the total predictions.Further analysis suggests that,during the years in which MJO events propagate across the Maritime Continent over a more southerly path,the optimized statistical forecasting model obtains better improvements in MJO prediction.
基金Supported by China Health Promotion Foundation Young Doctors’Research Foundation for Inflammatory Bowel DiseaseTaishan Scholars Program of Shandong Province,China,NO.tsqn202306343National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.82270580,No.82070552,No.82270578,and No.82300599.
文摘BACKGROUND Gastrointestinal diseases have complex etiologies and clinical presentations.An accurate diagnosis requires physicians to integrate diverse information,including medical history,laboratory test results,and imaging findings.Existing artificial intelligence-assisted diagnostic tools are limited to single-modality information,resulting in recommendations that are often incomplete and may be associated with clinical or legal risks.AIM To develop and evaluate a collaborative multimodal large language model(LLM)framework for clinical decision-making in digestive diseases.METHODS In this observational study,DeepGut,a multimodal LLM collaborative diagnostic framework,was developed to integrate four distinct large models into a four-tiered structure.The framework sequentially accomplishes multimodal infor-mation extraction,logical“chain”construction,diagnostic and treatment suggestion generation,and risk analysis.The model was evaluated using objective metrics,which assess the reliability and comprehensiveness of model-generated results,and subjective expert opinions,which examine the effectiveness of the framework in assisting physicians.RESULTS The diagnostic and treatment recommendations generated by the DeepGut framework achieved exceptional performance,with a diagnostic accuracy of 97.8%,diagnostic completeness of 93.9%,treatment plan accuracy of 95.2%,and treatment plan completeness of 98.0%,significantly surpassing the capabilities of single-modal LLM-based diagnostic tools.Experts evaluating the framework commended the completeness,relevance,and logical coherence of its outputs.However,the collaborative multimodal LLM approach resulted in increased input and output token counts,leading to higher computational costs and extended diagnostic times.CONCLUSION The framework achieves successful integration of multimodal diagnostic data,demonstrating enhanced performance enabled by multimodal LLM collaboration,which opens new horizons for the clinical application of artificial intelligence-assisted technology.
基金the Project of the Key Open Laboratory of Atmospheric Detection,China Meteorological Administration(2023KLAS02M)the Second Batch of Science and Technology Project of China Meteorological Administration("Jiebangguashuai"):the Research and Development of Short-term and Near-term Warning Products for Severe Convective Weather in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region(CMAJBGS202307).
文摘Firstly,based on the data of air quality and the meteorological data in Baoding City from 2017 to 2021,the correlations of meteorological elements and pollutants with O_(3)concentration were explored to determine the forecast factors of forecast models.Secondly,the O_(3)-8h concentration in Baoding City in 2021 was predicted based on the constructed models of multiple linear regression(MLR),backward propagation neural network(BPNN),and auto regressive integrated moving average(ARIMA),and the predicted values were compared with the observed values to test their prediction effects.The results show that overall,the MLR,BPNN and ARIMA models were able to forecast the changing trend of O_(3)-8h concentration in Baoding in 2021,but the BPNN model gave better forecast results than the ARIMA and MLR models,especially for the prediction of the high values of O_(3)-8h concentration,and the correlation coefficients between the predicted values and the observed values were all higher than 0.9 during June-September.The mean error(ME),mean absolute error(MAE),and root mean square error(RMSE)of the predicted values and the observed values of daily O_(3)-8h concentration based on the BPNN model were 0.45,19.11 and 24.41μg/m 3,respectively,which were significantly better than those of the MLR and ARIMA models.The prediction effects of the MLR,BPNN and ARIMA models were the best at the pollution level,followed by the excellent level,and it was the worst at the good level.In comparison,the prediction effect of BPNN model was better than that of the MLR and ARIMA models as a whole,especially for the pollution and excellent levels.The TS scores of the BPNN model were all above 66%,and the PC values were above 86%.The BPNN model can forecast the changing trend of O_(3)concentration more accurately,and has a good practical application value,but at the same time,the predicted high values of O_(3)concentration should be appropriately increased according to error characteristics of the model.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.61273236)the Scientific Research Foundation of Graduate School of Southeast University(No.YBJJ1637),China Scholarship Council
文摘To address the problem that a general augmented state Kalman filter or a two-stage Kalman filter cannot achieve satisfactory positioning performance when facing uncertain noise of the micro-electro-mechanical system（MEMS） inertial sensors, a novel interacting multiple model-based two-stage Kalman filter（IMM-TSKF） is proposed to adapt to the uncertain inertial sensor noise. Three bias filters are developed based on different noise characteristics to cover a wide range of noise levels. Then, an accurate estimation of biases is calculated by the interacting multiple model algorithm to correct the bias-free filter. Thus, the vehicle positioning system can achieve good performance when suffering from uncertain inertial sensor noise. The experimental results indicate that the average position error of the proposed IMMTSKF is 25% lower than that of the general TSKF.
基金Project(20120022120011)supported by the Specialized Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education of ChinaProject(2652012062)supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities,China
文摘In order to detect the deformation in real-time of the GPS time series and improve its reliability, the multiple Kalman filters model with shaping filter was proposed. Two problems were solved: firstly, because the GPS real-time deformation series with a high sampling rate contain coloured noise, the multiple Kalman filter model requires the white noise, and the multiple Kalman filters model is augmented by a shaping filter in order to reduce the colored noise; secondly, the multiple Kalman filters model with shaping filter can detect the deformation epoch in real-time and improve the quality of GPS measurements for the real-time deformation applications. Based on the comparisons of the applications in different GPS time series with different models, the advantages of the proposed model were illustrated. The proposed model can reduce the colored noise, detect the smaller changes, and improve the precision of the detected deformation epoch.
文摘To avoid missing track caused by the target maneuvers in automatic target tracking system, a new maneuvering target tracking technique called threshold interacting multiple model （TIMM） is proposed. This algorithm is based on the interacting multiple model （IMM） method and applies a threshold controller to improve tracking accuracy. It is also applicable to other advanced algorithms of IMM. In this research, we also compare the position and velocity root mean square （RMS） errors of TIMM and IMM algorithms with two different examples. Simulation results show that the TIMM algorithm is superior to the traditional IMM alzorithm in estimation accuracy.
文摘The aim of this study was to assay the polyphenols,flavonoid,polyphenol oxidase and phenylalnine ammonialyase which were relative to the anthocyanins synthesis of purple corn. The optimization of multiple linear regression model of anthocyanins synthesis was y=4.383 86-0.205 45x1＋5.479 638x2＋0.195 575x4. According to standard partial regression coefficient testing,the result indicated that polyphenols content was negatively correlated with anthocyanins and the relative influence to anthocyanins synthesis was-42.7%; flavonoid content and activity of polyphenol oxidase were positively correlated with anthocyanins of purple corn and the relative influence to anthocyanins synthesis were 71.45% and 73.32% respectively. There was no positive correlation between the activity of phenylalnine ammonialyase and anthocyanins of purple corn. The establishment of multiple linear regression model of anthocyanins synthesis was to provide theory foundation of producing anthocyanins in laboratory.
文摘Aim To develop a practical target tracking algorithm for different motion modes. Methods After creation of the new model, it was implemented by computer simulation to prove its performance and compared with the often-used current statistical model. Results The simulation results show that the new IMM (interactive multiple model) have low tracking error in both maneuVering segment and non^Inaneuwi segment while the current statistical model bas muCh higher tracking error in non-maneuvering segment. Conclusion In the point of trackintaccuracy, the new IMM method is much better than the current acceleration method. It can develop into a practical target hacking method.
基金Supported by the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China (2006AA040309)National BasicResearch Program of China (2007CB714000)
文摘Presented is a multiple model soft sensing method based on Affinity Propagation （AP）, Gaussian process （GP） and Bayesian committee machine （BCM）. AP clustering arithmetic is used to cluster training samples according to their operating points. Then, the sub-models are estimated by Gaussian Process Regression （GPR）. Finally, in order to get a global probabilistic prediction, Bayesian committee mactnne is used to combine the outputs of the sub-estimators. The proposed method has been applied to predict the light naphtha end point in hydrocracker fractionators. Practical applications indicate that it is useful for the online prediction of quality monitoring in chemical processes.
基金co-supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2016YFC0803103)Beijing Advanced Innovation Center for Future Urban Design(No.UDC2016050100)Beijing Postdoctoral Research Foundation
文摘An Extended Kalman Filter（EKF） is commonly used to fuse raw Global Navigation Satellite System（GNSS） measurements and Inertial Navigation System（INS） derived measurements. However, the Conventional EKF（CEKF） suffers the problem for which the uncertainty of the statistical properties to dynamic and measurement models will degrade the performance.In this research, an Adaptive Interacting Multiple Model（AIMM） filter is developed to enhance performance. The soft-switching property of Interacting Multiple Model（IMM） algorithm allows the adaptation between two levels of process noise, namely lower and upper bounds of the process noise. In particular, the Sage adaptive filtering is applied to adapt the measurement covariance on line. In addition, a classified measurement update strategy is utilized, which updates the pseudorange and Doppler observations sequentially. A field experiment was conducted to validate the proposed algorithm, the pseudorange and Doppler observations from Global Positioning System（GPS） and Bei Dou Navigation Satellite System（BDS） were post-processed in differential mode.The results indicate that decimeter-level positioning accuracy is achievable with AIMM for GPS/INS and GPS/BDS/INS configurations, and the position accuracy is improved by 35.8%, 34.3% and 33.9% for north, east and height components, respectively, compared to the CEKF counterpartfor GPS/BDS/INS. Degraded performance for BDS/INS is obtained due to the lower precision of BDS pseudorange observations.
基金Project supported by China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (No.20060400313)partly by Zhejiang Postdoctoral Science Founda-tion of China (No. 2006-bsh-25)
文摘In airborne tracking,the blind Doppler makes the target undetectable,resulting in tracking difficulties. In this paper,we studied most possible blind-Doppler cases and summed them up into two types:targets' intentional tangential flying to radar and unintentional flying with large tangential speed. We proposed an interacting multiple model(IMM) particle filter which combines a constant velocity model and an acceleration model to handle maneuvering motions. We compared the IMM particle filter with a previous particle filter solution. Simulation results showed that the IMM particle filter outperforms the method in previous works in terms of tracking accuracy and continuity.
文摘In this paper, an improved implementation of multiple model Gaussian mixture probability hypothesis density （MM-GM-PHD） filter is proposed. For maneuvering target tracking, based on joint distribution, the existing MM-GM-PHD filter is relatively complex. To simplify the filter, model conditioned distribution and model probability are used in the improved MM-GM-PHD filter. In the algorithm, every Gaussian components describing existing, birth and spawned targets are estimated by multiple model method. The final results of the Gaussian components are the fusion of multiple model estimations. The algorithm does not need to compute the joint PHD distribution and has a simpler computation procedure. Compared with single model GM-PHD, the algorithm gives more accurate estimation on the number and state of the targets. Compared with the existing MM-GM-PHD algorithm, it saves computation time by more than 30%. Moreover, it also outperforms the interacting multiple model joint probabilistic data association （IMMJPDA） filter in a relatively dense clutter environment.
文摘Combining interacting multiple model （IMM） and unscented particle filter （UPF）, a new multiple model filtering algorithm is presented. Multiple models can be adapted to targets＇ high maneu- vering. Particle filter can be used to deal with the nonlinear or non-Gaussian problems and the unscented Kalman filter （UKF） can improve the approximate accuracy. Compared with other interacting multiple model algorithms in the simulations, the results demonstrate the validity of the new filtering method.
基金provided by the Korean Ministry of Environment and Eco Star Project
文摘Rainfall is an important factor in estimating the event mean concentration （EMC） which is used to quantify the washed-off pollutant concentrations from non-point sources （NPSs）. Pollutant loads could also be calculated using rainfall, catchment area and runoff coefficient. In this study, runoff quantity and quality data gathered from a 28-month monitoring conducted on the road and parking lot sites in Korea were evaluated using multiple linear regression （MLR） to develop equations for estimating pollutant loads and EMCs as a function of rainfall variables. The results revealed that total event rainfall and average rainfall intensity are possible predictors of pollutant loads. Overall, the models are indicators of the high uncertainties of NPSs; perhaps estimation of EMCs and loads could be accurately obtained by means of water quality sampling or a long term monitoring is needed to gather more data that can be used for the development of estimation models.
基金This paper is supported by the National Foundamental Research Program of China (No. 2002CB312201), the State Key Program of NationalNatural Science of China (No. 60534010), the Funds for Creative Research Groups of China (No. 60521003), and Program for Changjiang Scholarsand Innovative Research Team in University (No. IRT0421).
文摘For a class of complex industrial processes with strong nonlinearity, serious coupling and uncertainty, a nonlinear decoupling proportional-integral-differential （PID） controller is proposed, which consists of a traditional PID controller, a decoupling compensator and a feedforward compensator for the unmodeled dynamics. The parameters of such controller is selected based on the generalized minimum variance control law. The unmodeled dynamics is estimated and compensated by neural networks, a switching mechanism is introduced to improve tracking performance, then a nonlinear decoupling PID control algorithm is proposed. All signals in such switching system are globally bounded and the tracking error is convergent. Simulations show effectiveness of the algorithm.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(32072764, 31702121)the 2115 Talent Development Program of China Agricultural UniversityNational Key Research and Development Program of China (2019YFD1002605)
文摘Backgrounds:Evaluating the growth performance of pigs in real-time is laborious and expensive,thus mathematical models based on easily accessible variables are developed.Multiple regression(MR)is the most widely used tool to build prediction models in swine nutrition,while the artificial neural networks(ANN)model is reported to be more accurate than MR model in prediction performance.Therefore,the potential of ANN models in predicting the growth performance of pigs was evaluated and compared with MR models in this study.Results:Body weight(BW),net energy(NE)intake,standardized ileal digestible lysine(SID Lys)intake,and their quadratic terms were selected as input variables to predict ADG and F/G among 10 candidate variables.In the training phase,MR models showed high accuracy in both ADG and F/G prediction(R^(2)_(ADG)=0.929,R^(2)_(F/G)=0.886)while ANN models with 4,6 neurons and radial basis activation function yielded the best performance in ADG and F/G prediction(R^(2)_(ADG)=0.964,R^(2)_(F/G)=0.932).In the testing phase,these ANN models showed better accuracy in ADG prediction(CCC:0.976 vs.0.861,R^(2):0.951 vs.0.584),and F/G prediction(CCC:0.952 vs.0.900,R^(2):0.905 vs.0.821)compared with the MR models.Meanwhile,the“over-fitting”occurred in MR models but not in ANN models.On validation data from the animal trial,ANN models exhibited superiority over MR models in both ADG and F/G prediction(P<0.01).Moreover,the growth stages have a significant effect on the prediction accuracy of the models.Conclusion:Body weight,NE intake and SID Lys intake can be used as input variables to predict the growth performance of growing-finishing pigs,with trained ANN models are more flexible and accurate than MR models.Therefore,it is promising to use ANN models in related swine nutrition studies in the future.
