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Critical Contingencies Ranking for Dynamic Security Assessment Using Neural Networks
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作者 Gustavo Schweickardt Juan Manuel Gimenez-Alvarez 《Journal of Energy and Power Engineering》 2012年第10期1663-1672,共10页
A number of contingencies simulated during dynamic security assessment do not generate unacceptable values of power system state variables, due to their small influence on system operation. Their exclusion from the se... A number of contingencies simulated during dynamic security assessment do not generate unacceptable values of power system state variables, due to their small influence on system operation. Their exclusion from the set of contingencies to be simulated in the security assessment would achieve a significant reduction in computation time. This paper defines a critical contingencies selection method for on-line dynamic security assessment. The selection method results from an off-line dynamical analysis, which covers typical scenarios and also covers various related aspects like frequency, voltage, and angle analyses among others. Indexes measured over these typical scenarios are used to train neural networks, capable of performing on-line estimation of a critical contingencies list according to the system state. 展开更多
关键词 Critical contingencies dynamic security assessment neural networks.
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Study on Approach of Static Security Assessment Accounting for Electro-thermal Coupling
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作者 Mengxia Wang Hongbin Sun +1 位作者 Jinxin Huang Qiang Zhang 《Energy and Power Engineering》 2013年第4期703-707,共5页
A static security assessment approach considering electro-thermal coupling of transmission lines is proposed in this paper. Combined with the dynamic thermal rating technology and energy forecasting, the approach can ... A static security assessment approach considering electro-thermal coupling of transmission lines is proposed in this paper. Combined with the dynamic thermal rating technology and energy forecasting, the approach can track both the electrical variables and transmission lines’ temperature varying trajectory under anticipated contingencies. Accordingly, it identifies the serious contingencies by transmission lines’ temperature violation rather than its power flow, in this case the time margin of temperature rising under each serious contingency can be provided to operators as warning information and some unnecessary security control can also be avoided. Finally, numerical simulations are carried out to testify the validity of the proposed approach. 展开更多
关键词 Power System dynamic THERMAL RATING STATIC security assessment Transmission Line Electro-thermal COUPLING
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Evolving Symbolic Model for Dynamic Security Assessment in Power Systems 被引量:1
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作者 Francisco S.Fernandes Ricardo J.Bessa João Peças Lopes 《Journal of Modern Power Systems and Clean Energy》 2025年第4期1113-1126,共14页
In a high-risk sector,such as power system,trans parency and interpretability are key principles for effectively deploying artificial intelligence(AI)in control rooms.There fore,this paper proposes a novel methodology... In a high-risk sector,such as power system,trans parency and interpretability are key principles for effectively deploying artificial intelligence(AI)in control rooms.There fore,this paper proposes a novel methodology,the evolving sym bolic model(ESM),which is dedicated to generating highly in terpretable data-driven models for dynamic security assessment(DSA),namely in system security classification(SC)and the def inition of preventive control actions.The ESM uses simulated annealing for a data-driven evolution of a symbolic model tem plate,enabling different cooperative learning schemes between humans and AI.The Madeira Island power system is used to validate the application of the ESM for DSA.The results show that the ESM has a classification accuracy comparable to pruned decision trees(DTs)while boasting higher global inter pretability.Moreover,the ESM outperforms an operator-de fined expert system and an artificial neural network in defining preventive control actions. 展开更多
关键词 dynamic security assessment(DSA) artificial intelligence(AI) evolving symbolic model(ESM) grid-forming supervised learning reinforcement learning
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An uncertainty-aware bi-level multitask SqueezeNet for dynamic security assessment in power systems with focus on critical generator identification under small and imbalanced datasets
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作者 Sasan Azad Mohammad Taghi Ameli +2 位作者 Amir Reza Shafieinejad Hossein Ameli Goran Strbac 《Energy and AI》 2025年第4期207-228,共22页
Deep learning(DL)-based methods in pre-fault dynamic security assessment(DSA)have provided significant results,contributing to the safe operation of power systems.However,power systems often suffer from insuf-ficient,... Deep learning(DL)-based methods in pre-fault dynamic security assessment(DSA)have provided significant results,contributing to the safe operation of power systems.However,power systems often suffer from insuf-ficient,small,and imbalanced datasets,which significantly impact the performance of DL-based DSA models.Existing DSA frameworks typically operate as two-class black-box models,assessing only overall system security without providing insights into the causes of insecurity or identifying critical generators(CGs),and they fail to quantify prediction uncertainty.These challenges hinder the implementation of current methods in real-world power systems and reduce operators’confidence in them.To address these issues,this paper proposes an uncertainty-aware bi-level multitask learning framework based on transfer learning and SqueezeNet architec-ture.The framework assesses system security,identifies CGs during instability,and leverages fine-tuning of a pretrained SqueezeNet model to facilitate training with limited data.Additionally,evidential deep learning is incorporated to quantify classification uncertainty.Without relying on the complex and challenging data augmentation method,this framework uses a simple technique called optimal classification threshold determi-nation to mitigate the negative impact of imbalanced data on model performance.The optimal threshold is determined by maximizing the area under the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve.The application of the proposed method to the IEEE 118-bus system shows its strong performance.These results offer crucial technical insights for the implementation of DL-based DSA in real-world power systems. 展开更多
关键词 dynamic security assessment Multitask learning SqueezeNet Evidential deep learning Small dataset Imbalanced dataset Critical generators
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Dynamic security risk assessment and optimization of power transmission system 被引量:7
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作者 YU YiXin WANG DongTao 《Science China(Technological Sciences)》 SCIE EI CAS 2008年第6期713-723,共11页
The paper presents a practical dynamic security region(PDSR)based dynamic security risk assessment and optimization model for power transmission system.The cost of comprehensive security control and the influence of u... The paper presents a practical dynamic security region(PDSR)based dynamic security risk assessment and optimization model for power transmission system.The cost of comprehensive security control and the influence of uncertainties of power injections are considered in the model of dynamic security risk assessment.The transient stability constraints and uncertainties of power injections can be considered easily by PDSR in form of hyper-box.A method to define and classify contingency set is presented,and a risk control optimization model is given which takes total dynamic insecurity risk as the objective function for a dominant con-tingency set.An optimal solution of dynamic insecurity risk is obtained by opti-mizing preventive and emergency control cost and contingency set decomposition.The effectiveness of this model has been proved by test results on the New Eng-land 10-genarator 39-bus system. 展开更多
关键词 power transmission system risk assessment dynamic security practical dynamic security region(PDSR) comprehensive security control OPTIMIZATION
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Understanding Discrepancy of Power System Dynamic Security Assessment with Unknown Faults: A Reliable Transfer Learning-based Method 被引量:2
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作者 Chao Ren Han Yu +1 位作者 Yan Xu Zhao Yang Dong 《CSEE Journal of Power and Energy Systems》 SCIE EI CSCD 2024年第1期427-431,共5页
This letter proposes a reliable transfer learning(RTL)method for pre-fault dynamic security assessment(DSA)in power systems to improve DSA performance in the presence of potentially related unknown faults.It takes ind... This letter proposes a reliable transfer learning(RTL)method for pre-fault dynamic security assessment(DSA)in power systems to improve DSA performance in the presence of potentially related unknown faults.It takes individual discrepancies into consideration and can handle unknown faults with incomplete data.Extensive experiment results demonstrate high DSA accuracy and computational efficiency of the proposed RTL method.Theoretical analysis shows RTL can guarantee system performance. 展开更多
关键词 Adversarial training dynamic security assessment maximum classifier discrepancy missing data transfer learning
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Automated Protection Performance Assessment and Enhancement
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作者 J. Jaeger X.-P. Liang +1 位作者 R. Krebs T. Bopp 《Journal of Power and Energy Engineering》 2014年第4期525-531,共7页
New strategies and methods for assessing the security of protection systems to reduce the risk of unnecessary disturbances and blackouts are the main topic of the present paper. The system behavior of a protection sys... New strategies and methods for assessing the security of protection systems to reduce the risk of unnecessary disturbances and blackouts are the main topic of the present paper. The system behavior of a protection system and network is analyzed and assessed as a whole. Hence, the established algorithms are capable to handle complex network structures with regard to an intelligent data management as well as data validation. Protection security assessment comprised two different aspects: on the one hand the behavior regarding dependability and security in terms of speed and sensitivity, on the other hand the behavior regarding the response on dynamic network phenomena as voltage stability and transient stability. A new automated method for assessing the dependability and security of protection systems is shown. The short-circuit simulation tool is used to provide a simulation system including network and protection devices as a whole. The handling of the large amount of resulting data is done by an intelligent visualization method like a “fingerprint” analysis. Further on the paper is focused on the protection response on dynamic network phenomena and presents innovative strategies for this investigation aspect. The structure of simulation environment will be described. Results of a case study show the application of this method on a real network. The system tool which is concluding these two aspects of protection assessment is called SIGUARD? PSA. 展开更多
关键词 PROTECTION security assessment DEPENDABILITY security PROTECTION COORDINATION GENERIC PROTECTION Models dynamic PROTECTION Simulation
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基于动态频率安全评估的低惯性系统储能适应性协同规划
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作者 王强钢 石博文 +3 位作者 池源 周亦尧 张琛 周念成 《电力系统自动化》 北大核心 2026年第2期165-176,共12页
新能源大规模并网后,常规机组装机容量占比不断下降,电力系统的惯性水平和调频能力减弱,动态频率安全风险增加。为此,文中提出基于动态频率安全评估的低惯性电力系统储能适应性协同规划方法。首先,提出考虑时间累积效应的动态频率安全指... 新能源大规模并网后,常规机组装机容量占比不断下降,电力系统的惯性水平和调频能力减弱,动态频率安全风险增加。为此,文中提出基于动态频率安全评估的低惯性电力系统储能适应性协同规划方法。首先,提出考虑时间累积效应的动态频率安全指标,用于评估系统一次频率响应全过程;然后,基于动态频率安全指标,提出考虑容量敏感性的储能分区选址策略;最后,建立基于数值-机电暂态联合仿真的储能适应性协同规划模型,通过数值-机电暂态模型交替迭代对经济、频率安全和适应性指标进行折中优化,并采用非支配排序遗传算法求解储能容量最优配置。改进的IEEE 39节点系统算例分析表明,所提方法在选址阶段使动态频率安全指标得到了改善,在定容阶段既保证了经济性和频率安全,又提高了规划方案对各种不确定场景的适应性。 展开更多
关键词 惯量 储能 规划 动态频率安全 评估 机电暂态仿真 选址定容
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面向在线动态安全分析的高时空分辨率状态估计:研究现状与方法框架
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作者 胡健雄 汤奕 +2 位作者 王琦 叶宇剑 严明辉 《中国电机工程学报》 北大核心 2026年第6期2194-2213,I0003,共21页
实时获取高时空分辨率的系统运行状态是实现新型电力系统在线动态安全分析的基础。然而,传统状态估计研究在数据方面面临时空异构量测数据分辨率不足的挑战,在方法层面则存在机理单一、数据驱动方法难以兼顾时效性与可信性、系统动力学... 实时获取高时空分辨率的系统运行状态是实现新型电力系统在线动态安全分析的基础。然而,传统状态估计研究在数据方面面临时空异构量测数据分辨率不足的挑战,在方法层面则存在机理单一、数据驱动方法难以兼顾时效性与可信性、系统动力学模型难以解析化构建等难题。为此,该文首先梳理并总结状态估计研究现状及其应用于面向高时空分辨率估计时面临的关键挑战;其次,基于“机理-数据联合驱动”的基本思想,设计面向新型电力系统动态安全分析的高时空分辨率状态估计框架,结合不同机理-数据联合驱动模式的应用特点,针对性提出高分辨率估计模型的构建、训练、提升与应用技术;最后,通过不同场景下的算例测试,验证所提高时空分辨率状态估计技术的应用效果。 展开更多
关键词 机理-数据联合驱动 态势感知 状态估计 动态安全分析
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机场管制地带韧性的评估与提升策略
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作者 杨斌 甘旭升 +1 位作者 闵杰 杨文达 《中阿科技论坛(中英文)》 2026年第3期105-109,共5页
针对军航机场管制地带在对抗性扰动、作战任务导向和数据受限等复杂条件下面临的安全挑战,文章提出了一种基于系统动力学的安全韧性评估与提升方法。通过将机场系统划分为指挥、运行和环境等三个子系统,构建风险动力学模型,并利用因果... 针对军航机场管制地带在对抗性扰动、作战任务导向和数据受限等复杂条件下面临的安全挑战,文章提出了一种基于系统动力学的安全韧性评估与提升方法。通过将机场系统划分为指挥、运行和环境等三个子系统,构建风险动力学模型,并利用因果回路图刻画风险在各子系统间的传导与反馈机制;在此基础上,设计基于综合风险动态曲线的韧性评估框架,量化系统在扰动下的抵抗能力、吸收能力与恢复能力。以WH机场为例开展模型验证,精准识别关键风险节点,并提出增设实时监测、优化弹性值班机制、强化应急训练等韧性提升策略。结果表明,文章所提方法可有效降低风险峰值并加速系统功能恢复,为军航机场在复杂对抗环境下维持核心作战能力提供了定量分析工具与决策支持。 展开更多
关键词 专用机场管制地带 安全韧性 系统动力学 动态评估 韧性评估
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智能审计中数据安全治理模型构建研究
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作者 卢佩琳 化贵啟 朱翼 《南京审计大学学报》 北大核心 2026年第1期56-68,共13页
随着智能审计在审计实践中的深入应用,数据安全问题日益凸显。当下数据安全治理聚焦于数据本体保护,缺乏对整个数据流程、全要素的动态评估和持续优化机制,难以满足智能审计场景下的安全需求。基于此,借助数据安全成熟度模型,构建涵盖... 随着智能审计在审计实践中的深入应用,数据安全问题日益凸显。当下数据安全治理聚焦于数据本体保护,缺乏对整个数据流程、全要素的动态评估和持续优化机制,难以满足智能审计场景下的安全需求。基于此,借助数据安全成熟度模型,构建涵盖数据安全过程、安全能力和能力成熟度等级三个维度的面向智能审计的数据安全治理模型。该模型围绕审计数据的采集、预处理、分析、线索核实以及报告生成五个阶段,将组织、制度、技术、人员等安全能力要素进行融合,并设定五级成熟度等级,旨在指导数据安全治理路径。虽然该模型拥有良好的结构通用性,但在行业定制、跨组织协同、跨境数据审计等复杂场景仍存在适配性方面的挑战,需要进一步拓展适配机制和评估方法。 展开更多
关键词 风险评估 审计风险 动态评估 数据安全成熟度模型 数据安全 智能审计
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计算机终端安全管理在单位网络运维中的实践研究
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作者 邢行 《信息与电脑》 2026年第2期142-144,共3页
计算机终端安全管理在单位网络运维中存在终端设备异构性适配不足、安全防护技术滞后、监测覆盖率低、传统运维与安全融合不足及响应体系不完善等问题。文章通过构建动态安全基线、搭建协同防护架构、优化运维流程、完善评估机制开展实... 计算机终端安全管理在单位网络运维中存在终端设备异构性适配不足、安全防护技术滞后、监测覆盖率低、传统运维与安全融合不足及响应体系不完善等问题。文章通过构建动态安全基线、搭建协同防护架构、优化运维流程、完善评估机制开展实践,有效提升了终端安全防护效能,增强了终端与网络的协同防护能力,优化了安全管理流程,为单位网络运维提供了可靠的终端安全保障。 展开更多
关键词 计算机终端安全 网络运维 动态安全基线 协同防护 安全评估
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基于动态防控的网络安全管理策略优化与实施路径研究
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作者 张丹 《计算机应用文摘》 2026年第4期234-236,共3页
为应对传统网络安全策略存在的响应滞后、配置静态等固有缺陷,文章提出一种基于动态风险自适应的安全策略优化和部署方法。通过构建风险实时评估模型、策略自适应调度引擎及分布式环境下的跨节点协同控制框架,实现了从策略生成、智能调... 为应对传统网络安全策略存在的响应滞后、配置静态等固有缺陷,文章提出一种基于动态风险自适应的安全策略优化和部署方法。通过构建风险实时评估模型、策略自适应调度引擎及分布式环境下的跨节点协同控制框架,实现了从策略生成、智能调整到精准执行的闭环管理。相较于传统静态策略部署方式,文章方案在策略响应效率、系统资源占用率及整体稳定性等关键指标上均有显著提升,证明了其在实际复杂网络环境中具备良好的动态防护能力与部署可行性。 展开更多
关键词 动态防控 网络安全策略 风险评估
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基于支持向量机和改进GRU的电力监控系统安全态势评估和预测研究
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作者 邓川 汪元春 +2 位作者 苏光莉 母光虎 刘昊东 《自动化与仪器仪表》 2026年第2期341-345,共5页
随着电力系统规模扩大和运行复杂性增加,电力监控系统对安全态势评估与预测的需求日益提升。为提升系统的安全态势感知与预测能力,研究提出了一种基于支持向量机和改进门控循环单元的安全态势评估与预测模型。实验结果表明,支持向量机... 随着电力系统规模扩大和运行复杂性增加,电力监控系统对安全态势评估与预测的需求日益提升。为提升系统的安全态势感知与预测能力,研究提出了一种基于支持向量机和改进门控循环单元的安全态势评估与预测模型。实验结果表明,支持向量机模型在静态分类任务中表现出色,准确率为99.1%,曲线下面积值达到0.977。而结合支持向量机与改进门控循环单元的模型在动态预测任务中,均方误差和均方根误差分别为5.5%和5.6%,并在高动态波动场景下具有最优拟合精度与最低运行时间1.2 s。上述结果表明,所提出的模型在准确性和效率上表现优异,能够有效提升电力系统的安全态势感知和未来风险预测能力,从而增强电力监控系统的实时性与鲁棒性。 展开更多
关键词 电力监控系统 SVM 改进GRU 动态预测 安全态势评估
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基坑监测中的智能数据分析与可视化技术研究
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作者 侯继文 《智能建筑与智慧城市》 2026年第3期191-193,共3页
传统的基坑监测方法在数据处理和风险预测方面存在局限性。智能数据分析技术的引入,使得监测数据的采集、处理和分析更加高效、精准,同时,可视化技术能够直观呈现监测结果,辅助工程决策。文章介绍了基坑监测的基础理论和传统技术,分析... 传统的基坑监测方法在数据处理和风险预测方面存在局限性。智能数据分析技术的引入,使得监测数据的采集、处理和分析更加高效、精准,同时,可视化技术能够直观呈现监测结果,辅助工程决策。文章介绍了基坑监测的基础理论和传统技术,分析了智能数据分析与可视化技术的原理及其在基坑监测中的应用,并重点探讨了智能数据分析在数据采集、预处理及安全评估中的作用,以及二维、三维和动态可视化技术在监测数据展示中的应用,以期为未来基坑监测的智能化发展提供技术参考。 展开更多
关键词 基坑监测 智能数据分析 可视化技术 安全评估 动态可视化
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An Approach to Assess the Resiliency of Electric Power Grids
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作者 Navin Shenoy R. Ramakumar 《Journal of Power and Energy Engineering》 2015年第11期1-13,共13页
Modern electric power grids face a variety of new challenges and there is an urgent need to improve grid resilience more than ever before. The best approach would be to focus primarily on the grid intelligence rather ... Modern electric power grids face a variety of new challenges and there is an urgent need to improve grid resilience more than ever before. The best approach would be to focus primarily on the grid intelligence rather than implementing redundant preventive measures. This paper presents the foundation for an intelligent operational strategy so as to enable the grid to assess its current dynamic state instantaneously. Traditional forms of real-time power system security assessment consist mainly of methods based on power flow analyses and hence, are static in nature. For dynamic security assessment, it is necessary to carry out time-domain simulations (TDS) that are computationally too involved to be performed in real-time. The paper employs machine learning (ML) techniques for real-time assessment of grid resiliency. ML techniques have the capability to organize large amounts of data gathered from such time-domain simulations and thereby extract useful information in order to better assess the system security instantaneously. Further, this paper develops an approach to show that a few operating points of the system called as landmark points contain enough information to capture the nonlinear dynamics present in the system. The proposed approach shows improvement in comparison to the case without landmark points. 展开更多
关键词 GRID RESILIENCE MACHINE Learning SMART Grids TIME-DOMAIN Analysis dynamic security assessment
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Selecting decision trees for power system security assessment
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作者 Al-Amin B.Bugaje Jochen L.Cremer +1 位作者 Mingyang Sun Goran Strbac 《Energy and AI》 2021年第4期21-30,共10页
Power systems transport an increasing amount of electricity,and in the future,involve more distributed renewables and dynamic interactions of the equipment.The system response to disturbances must be secure and predic... Power systems transport an increasing amount of electricity,and in the future,involve more distributed renewables and dynamic interactions of the equipment.The system response to disturbances must be secure and predictable to avoid power blackouts.The system response can be simulated in the time domain.However,this dynamic security assessment(DSA)is not computationally tractable in real-time.Particularly promising is to train decision trees(DTs)from machine learning as interpretable classifiers to predict whether the systemwide responses to disturbances are secure.In most research,selecting the best DT model focuses on predictive accuracy.However,it is insufficient to focus solely on predictive accuracy.Missed alarms and false alarms have drastically different costs,and as security assessment is a critical task,interpretability is crucial for operators.In this work,the multiple objectives of interpretability,varying costs,and accuracies are considered for DT model selection.We propose a rigorous workflow to select the best classifier.In addition,we present two graphical approaches for visual inspection to illustrate the selection sensitivity to probability and impacts of disturbances.We propose cost curves to inspect selection combining all three objectives for the first time.Case studies on the IEEE 68 bus system and the French system show that the proposed approach allows for better DT-selections,with an 80%increase in interpretability,5%reduction in expected operating cost,while making almost zero accuracy compromises.The proposed approach scales well with larger systems and can be used for models beyond DTs.Hence,this work provides insights into criteria for model selection in a promising application for methods from artificial intelligence(AI). 展开更多
关键词 dynamic security assessment Machine learning Decision trees ROC curve Cost curves Cost sensitivity
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高校无线网络安全态势感知系统的设计与实现 被引量:1
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作者 何琳 《移动信息》 2025年第2期127-129,共3页
高校无线网络的普及提高了教学与科研的数字化水平,但也带来了流量异常、用户行为异常和攻击等安全隐患.为应对这些问题,文中设计了一种高校无线网络安全态势感知系统,涵盖数据采集、态势分析、威胁评估和动态响应4个核心模块.经过7天... 高校无线网络的普及提高了教学与科研的数字化水平,但也带来了流量异常、用户行为异常和攻击等安全隐患.为应对这些问题,文中设计了一种高校无线网络安全态势感知系统,涵盖数据采集、态势分析、威胁评估和动态响应4个核心模块.经过7天的实地测试,系统在不同场景下表现优异.流量检测准确率为94.2%,用户行为异常检测率为91.2%,威胁评估精度为88.6%,响应时间为120~150 ms.在高频接入和异常流量干扰场景中,系统能快速识别并响应威胁,减少安全事件.测试表明,系统能提升网络安全防护能力,为高校网络管理提供科学解决方案. 展开更多
关键词 高校无线网络 安全态势感知 威胁评估 动态响应
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中国天然气产业链系统韧性评估体系、模型与情景仿真
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作者 黄维和 池立勋 +4 位作者 周淑慧 王军 梁严 王子莎 陈晨 《天然气工业》 北大核心 2025年第11期14-29,共16页
天然气作为中国能源转型过程中重要的“稳定器”和“调节器”,面临进口规模不断扩大、对外依存度趋高等问题,一旦发生进口中断将会对中国能源安全造成严重危害。因此,探究中国天然气产业链系统的韧性,评估系统遭受进口短缺冲击下的承受... 天然气作为中国能源转型过程中重要的“稳定器”和“调节器”,面临进口规模不断扩大、对外依存度趋高等问题,一旦发生进口中断将会对中国能源安全造成严重危害。因此,探究中国天然气产业链系统的韧性,评估系统遭受进口短缺冲击下的承受力、恢复力具有重大现实意义。当前针对天然气产业链系统韧性研究主要集中在理论层面,与中国产业链实际情况结合较弱,生产运行指导性、可操作性差。为此,建立了一套涵盖“进口网络-国内供需-应急机制”的静、动态结合的天然气产业系统韧性评估体系和中国天然气进口生态网络模型,分析了进口网络的鲁棒性及关键节点,作为后续模型的输入条件;其次,构建了中国天然气产业链系统动力学模型,分析了不同时间尺度、不同中断供气场景、不同应急措施下,中国天然气产业链系统的恢复能力;最后,结合中国天然气产供储销特点,提出了提升中国天然气产业链系统韧性的政策措施建议。研究结果表明:①中国天然气进口网络日益复杂,进口来源国、进口航线增加,各国进口比重趋于分散,抵御进口风险的能力增强,但马六甲海峡等关键通道的战略脆弱性依然突出;②当非采暖季54%LNG进口短缺90天时,依靠储备应急能力可以保障天然气系统恢复供需平衡,在采暖季则必须启动需求侧压减措施才能恢复供需平衡;③当54%LNG进口短缺5年,仅靠能源强度降低和能源替代等内生性调整难以弥补缺口,其中提升能源替代速率的效果优于降低能源强度,非常规天然气的技术突破是保障天然气产业链系统长期供应安全的关键。结论认为,提升中国天然气产业链系统韧性需采取“稳固外部供应、强化内部储备、加速节能降耗和非石化能源替代”的组合策略。 展开更多
关键词 天然气产业链系统安全 生态网络模型 系统动力学模型 能源安全 韧性评估 政策建议 应急措施
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中国粮食体系韧性多维评估、时空演变及驱动机制研究
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作者 王力 丁莎莎 周乾晨 《贵州财经大学学报》 北大核心 2025年第6期21-31,共11页
针对现有粮食体系韧性的研究多聚焦三维静态评价的局限,本研究构建“抵御-适应-恢复-更新”四维动态评价体系,综合运用Dagum基尼系数法、Kernel密度估计、Markov链与动态GMM系统,系统解析中国粮食体系韧性的时空格局演变与驱动机制。研... 针对现有粮食体系韧性的研究多聚焦三维静态评价的局限,本研究构建“抵御-适应-恢复-更新”四维动态评价体系,综合运用Dagum基尼系数法、Kernel密度估计、Markov链与动态GMM系统,系统解析中国粮食体系韧性的时空格局演变与驱动机制。研究发现:(1)全国韧性整体提升但区域梯度分化显著(主产区0.42>主销区0.31>产销平衡区0.28),区域间差异贡献率(64.27%)成为分化的主导因素,且空间邻近效应显著驱动韧性状态转移,凸显韧性动态演化的空间依赖性;(2)四维能力发展严重失衡:抵御力(0.290)、恢复力(0.265)相对较强,而更新力(0.148)构成核心短板,制约整体韧性水平;(3)区域类型特征各异:主产区综合优势明显但增长动能趋缓,主销区抵御与恢复能力薄弱,平衡区适应与更新能力显著不足;(4)交通基础设施与技术进步被识别为韧性提升的关键驱动因素。研究结果为制定差异化区域政策、优化农业资源配置及构建韧性保障体系提供了精准的科学依据。 展开更多
关键词 粮食体系韧性 粮食安全 时空演变 多维评估 动态GMM
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