Changes of air–sea coupling in the North Atlantic Ocean over the 20 th century are investigated using reanalysis data,climate model simulations, and observational data. It is found that the ocean-to-atmosphere feedba...Changes of air–sea coupling in the North Atlantic Ocean over the 20 th century are investigated using reanalysis data,climate model simulations, and observational data. It is found that the ocean-to-atmosphere feedback over the North Atlantic is significantly intensified in the second half of the 20 th century. This coupled feedback is characterized by the association between the summer North Atlantic Horseshoe（NAH） SST anomalies and the following winter North Atlantic Oscillation（NAO）. The intensification is likely associated with the enhancement of the North Atlantic storm tracks as well as the NAH SST anomalies. Our study also reveals that most IPCC AR4 climate models fail to capture the observed NAO/NAH coupled feedback.展开更多
Climate change brings new challenges to the sustainable development of agriculture in the new era.Accurately grasping the patterns of climate change impacts on agricultural systems is crucial for ensuring agricultural...Climate change brings new challenges to the sustainable development of agriculture in the new era.Accurately grasping the patterns of climate change impacts on agricultural systems is crucial for ensuring agricultural sustainability and food security.Taking the Loess Plateau(LP),China as an example,this study used a coupling coordination degree model and spatial autocorrelation analysis to portray the spatial and temporal features of crop-cropland coupling relationship from 2000 to 2020 and explored the impact law of climate change through geographically and temporally weighted regression(GTWR).The results were as follows:1)the crop-cropland coupling coordination degree of the LP showed a gradual upward trend from 2000 to 2020,forming a spatial pattern with lower values in the central region and higher values in the surrounding areas.2)There was a positive correlation in the spatial distribution of cropcropland coupling coordination degree in the LP from 2000 to 2020,and the high value-low value(H-L)and low value-low value(L-L)agglomerations continued to expand eastward,while the spatial and temporal evolution of the high value-high value(H-H)and low value-high value(L-H)agglomerations was not obvious.3)The impacts of climatic elements on crop-cropland coupling coordination degree in the LP showed strong heterogeneity in time scales.The inhibitory impacts of summer days(SU)and frost days(FD)accounted for a higher proportion,while the annual average temperature(TEM)had both promoting and inhibiting impacts.The impacts proportion and intensity of extreme heavy precipitation day(R25),continuous drought days(CDD),and annual precipitation(PRE)all experienced significant changes.4)In space,the impacts of SU and FD on the crop-cropland coupling coordination degree varied with latitude and altitude.The adaptability of the LP to R25 gradually strengthened,and the extensions of CDD and increase of PRE led to the increasing inhibition beyond the eastern region of LP,and TEM showed a promoting impact in the Fenwei Plain.As an important grainproducing area in China,the LP should actively deal with the impacts of climate change on the crop-cropland coupling relationship,vigorously safeguard food security,and promote sustainable agricultural development.展开更多
The driving effects of climate change and human activities on vegetation change have always been a focal point of research.However,the coupling mechanisms of these driving factors across different temporal and spatial...The driving effects of climate change and human activities on vegetation change have always been a focal point of research.However,the coupling mechanisms of these driving factors across different temporal and spatial scales remain controversial.The Southwestern Alpine Canyon Region of China(SACR),as an ecologically fragile area,is highly sensitive to the impacts of climate change and human activities.This study constructed a vegetation cover dataset for the SACR based on the Enhanced Vegetation Index(EVI)from 2000 to 2020.Spatial autocorrelation,Theil-Sen trend,and Mann-Kendall tests were used to analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of vegetation cover changes.The main drivers of spatial heterogeneity in vegetation cover were identified using the optimal parameter geographic detector,and an improved residual analysis model was employed to quantify the relative contributions of climate change and human activities to interannual vegetation cover changes.The main findings are as follows:Spatially,vegetation cover exceeds 60%in most areas,especially in the southern part of the study area.However,the border area between Linzhi and Changdu exhibits lower vegetation cover.Climate factors are the primary drivers of spatial heterogeneity in vegetation cover,with temperature having the most significant influence,as indicated by its q-value,which far exceeds that of other factors.Additionally,the interaction q-value between the two factors significantly increases,showing a relationship of bivariate enhancement and nonlinear enhancement.In terms of temporal changes,vegetation cover shows an overall improving trend from 2000 to 2020,with significant increases observed in 68.93%of the study area.Among these,human activities are the main factors driving vegetation cover change,with a relative contribution rate of 41.31%,while climate change and residual factors contribute 35.66%and 23.53%,respectively.By thoroughly exploring the coupled mechanisms of vegetation change,this study provides important references for the sustainable management and conservation of the vegetation ecosystem in the SACR.展开更多
In this paper, a coupled model was used to estimate the responses of soil moisture and net primary production of vegetation(NPP) to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change. The analysis uses three ...In this paper, a coupled model was used to estimate the responses of soil moisture and net primary production of vegetation(NPP) to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change. The analysis uses three experiments simulated by the second-generation Earth System Model(CanESM2) of the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis(CCCma), which are part of the phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5). The authors focus on the magnitude and evolution of responses in soil moisture and NPP using simulations modeled by CanESM, in which the individual effects of increasing CO2 concentration and climate change and their combined effect are separately accounted for. When considering only the single effect of climate change, the soil moisture and NPP have a linear trend of 0.03 kg m–2 yr–1 and –0.14 gC m–2 yr–2, respectively. However, such a reduction in the global NPP results from the decrease of NPP at lower latitudes and in the Southern Hemisphere, although increased NPP has been shown in high northern latitudes. The largest negative trend is located in the Amazon basin at –1.79 gC m–2 yr–2. For the individual effect of increasing CO2 concentration, both soil moisture and NPP show increases, with an elevated linear trend of 0.02 kg m–2 yr–1 and 0.84 gC m–2 yr–2, respectively. Most regions show an increasing NPP, except Alaska. For the combined effect of increasing atmospheric CO2 and climate change, the increased soil moisture and NPP exhibit a linear trend of 0.04 kg m–2 yr–1 and 0.83 gC m–2 yr–2 at a global scale. In the Amazon basin, the higher reduction in soil moisture is illustrated by the model, with a linear trend of –0.39 kg m–2 yr–1, for the combined effect. Such a change in soil moisture is caused by a weakened Walker circulation simulated by this coupled model, compared with the single effect of increasing CO2 concentration(experiment M2), and a consequence of the reduction in NPP is also shown in this area, with a linear trend of-0.16 gC m-2 yr-2.展开更多
Within the context of the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)and the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor(CMEC),the Dulong-Ir-rawaddy(Ayeyarwady)River,an international river among China,India and Myanmar,plays a significant role...Within the context of the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)and the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor(CMEC),the Dulong-Ir-rawaddy(Ayeyarwady)River,an international river among China,India and Myanmar,plays a significant role as both a valuable hydro-power resource and an essential ecological passageway.However,the water resources and security exhibit a high degree of vulnerabil-ity to climate change impacts.This research evaluates climate impacts on the hydrology of the Dulong-Irrawaddy River Basin(DIRB)by using a physical-based hydrologic model.We crafted future climate scenarios using the three latest global climate models(GCMs)from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6(CMIP6)under two shared socioeconomic pathways(SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5)for the near(2025-2049),mid(2050-2074),and far future(2075-2099).The regional model using MIKE SHE based on historical hydrologic processes was developed to further project future streamflow,demonstrating reliable performance in streamflow simulations with a val-idation Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency(NSE)of 0.72.Results showed that climate change projections showed increases in the annual precip-itation and potential evapotranspiration(PET),with precipitation increasing by 11.3%and 26.1%,and PET increasing by 3.2%and 4.9%,respectively,by the end of the century under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5.These changes are projected to result in increased annual streamflow at all stations,notably at the basin’s outlet(Pyay station)compared to the baseline period(with an increase of 16.1%and 37.0%at the end of the 21st century under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5,respectively).Seasonal analysis for Pyay station forecasts an in-crease in dry-season streamflow by 31.3%-48.9%and 22.5%-76.3%under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5,respectively,and an increase in wet-season streamflow by 5.8%-12.6%and 2.8%-33.3%,respectively.Moreover,the magnitude and frequency of flood events are pre-dicted to escalate,potentially impacting hydropower production and food security significantly.This research outlines the hydrological response to future climate change during the 21st century and offers a scientific basis for the water resource management strategies by decision-makers.展开更多
Since the United Nations launched the Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs)in 2015,global implementation has steadily advanced,yet prominent challenges persist.Progress has been uneven across regions and countries,with ...Since the United Nations launched the Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs)in 2015,global implementation has steadily advanced,yet prominent challenges persist.Progress has been uneven across regions and countries,with Tajikistan representing a typical example of such disparities.Based on 81 SDG indicators for Tajikistan from 2001 to 2023,this study applied a three-level coupling network framework:at the microscale,it identified synergies and trade-offs between indicators;at the mesoscale,it examined the strength and direction of linkages within four SDG-related components(society,finance,governance,and environment);and at the global level,it focused on the overall SDG interlinkages.Spearman’s rank correlation,sliding window method,and topological properties were employed to analyze the coupling dynamics of SDGs.Results showed that over 70.00%of associations in the global SDG network were of medium-to-low intensity,alongside extremely strong ones(|r|value approached 1.00,where r is the correlation coefficient).SDG interactions were generally limited,with stable local synergy clusters in core livelihood sectors.Network modularity fluctuated,reflecting a cycle of differentiation,integration,and fragmentation,while coupling efficiency varied with the external environment.Each component exhibited distinct functional characteristics.The social component maintained high connectivity through the“poverty alleviation-education-healthcare”loop.The environmental component shifted toward coordinated eco-economic governance.The governance-related component broke interdepartmental barriers,while the financial component showed weak links between resource-based indicators and consumption/employment indicators.Tajikistan’s SDG coupling evolved through three phases:survival-oriented(2001–2012),policy integration(2013–2018),and shock adaptation(2019–2023).These phases were driven by policy changes,resource industries,governance optimization,and external factors.This study enriches the analytical framework for understanding the dynamic coupling of SDGs in mountainous resource-dependent countries and provides empirical evidence to support similar countries in formulating phase-specific SDG promotion strategies.展开更多
Coupled ocean-atmospheric general circulation models are the only tools to quantitatively simulate the climate system. Since the end of the 1980s, a group of scientists in the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modelin...Coupled ocean-atmospheric general circulation models are the only tools to quantitatively simulate the climate system. Since the end of the 1980s, a group of scientists in the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), have been working to develop a global OGCM and a global coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation modei (CGCM). Prom the original flux anomaly-coupling modei developed in the beginning of the 1990s to the latest directly-coupling modei, LASG scientists have developed four global coupled GCMs. This study summarizes the development history of these models and describes the third and fourth coupled GCMs and selected applications. Strengths and weaknesses of these models are highlighted.展开更多
Based on panel data from 1991, 2000 and 2010 at the county level in China, this study analyzed the coupling characteristics and spatio-temporal patterns of agricultural labor changes and economic development under rap...Based on panel data from 1991, 2000 and 2010 at the county level in China, this study analyzed the coupling characteristics and spatio-temporal patterns of agricultural labor changes and economic development under rapid urbanization using quantitative and GIS spatial analysis methods. Three primary conclusions were obtained.(1) During 1991–2010, China's agricultural labor at the county level showed a decreasing trend, down 4.91% from 1991 to 2000 and 15.50% from 2000 to 2010. In spatial distribution, agricultural labor force has evolved by decreasing eastward and increasing westward.(2) During 1991–2010, China's agricultural economy at the county level showed a sustained growth trend, with a total increase of 140.13%, but with clear regional differences. The proportion of agricultural output in national GDP gradually decreased, characterized by decreases in eastern China and increases in western China.(3) The coupling types of economic-labor elasticity coefficient are mainly growth in northwest China, for both the agricultural economy and labor, and are intensive in southeast China, with growth of the agricultural economy and reduction of agricultural labor. Regions with lagged, fading, and declining coupling types are generally coincident with the high incidence of poverty in China. However, different coupling types had a positive developing trend for 1991–2010. Finally, based on the coupling types and spatial distribution characteristics of economic-labor elasticity coefficients, some policy suggestions are proposed to promote the integration of the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries and the vitalization of rural economies.展开更多
Twenty orthosequences and their corresponding sea-level change (SLC) cycles have been recognized in the Devonian overlying the Caledonian unconformity, of which 9, 5.5 and 5.5 occurred in the Lower, Middle and Upper D...Twenty orthosequences and their corresponding sea-level change (SLC) cycles have been recognized in the Devonian overlying the Caledonian unconformity, of which 9, 5.5 and 5.5 occurred in the Lower, Middle and Upper Devonian respectively. They can be grouped into 4 orthosequence sets, in which the maximum flooding surfaces lie in the sulcutus Zone (D12), perbonus Zone (D13), Middle and Upper varcus Zone (D22) and gigas Zone (D21) respectively. Four instant palaeogeographical reconstructions of South China have been made in the Emsian and Givetian. Devonian sea-level change rhythms of South China can be divided into 3 categories: the autorhythmic, the worldwide and regional allorhythmic, and the coupling-rhythmic. They developed respectively in the Famennian, Pragian, Eifelian, Lochkovian, Emsian, Givetian, Frasnian and the F / F (between the Frasnian and Famennian) event. The cause of the worldwide allorhythmic SLC of the Pragian and Eifelian under comparatively dry, warm and tranquil conditions may be related to the pulsating expanding and contracting of the oceanic basin volume or the earth volume pulsation, rather than the common glaciation and plate tectonism. The coupling-rhythmic SLC related to the F/ F event is a sensitive indicator of the interaction between terrestrial and extraterrestrial factors, and coordinated action among the earth-spheres.展开更多
Carbon emissions and water use are two major kinds of human activities. To reveal whether these two activities can modify the hydrological cycle and climate system in China, we conducted two sets of numerical experime...Carbon emissions and water use are two major kinds of human activities. To reveal whether these two activities can modify the hydrological cycle and climate system in China, we conducted two sets of numerical experiments using regional climate model RegCM4. In the first experiment used to study the climatic responses to human carbon emissions, the model were configured over entire China because the impacts of carbon emissions can be detected across the whole country. Results from the first experiment revealed that near-surface air temperature may significantly increase from 2007 to 2059 at a rate exceeding 0.1 ~C per decade in most areas across the country; southwestern and southeastern China also showed increasing trends in summer precipitation, with rates exceeding 10 mm per decade over the same period. In summer, only northern China showed an increasing trend of evapotranspiration, with increase rates ranging from 1 to 5 mm per decade; in winter, increase rates ranging from 1 to 5 mm per decade were observed in most regions. These effects are believed to be caused by global warming from human carbon emissions. In the second experiment used to study the effects of human water use, the model were configured over a limited region-- Haihe River Basin in the northern China, because compared with the human carbon emissions, the effects of human water use are much more local and regional, and the Haihe River Basin is the most typical region in China that suffers from both intensive human groundwater exploitation and surface water diversion. We incorporated a scheme of human water regulation into RegCM4 and conducted the second experiment. Model outputs showed that the groundwater table severely declined by -10 m in 1971-2000 through human groundwater over- exploitation in the basin; in fact, current conditions are so extreme that even reducing the pumping rate by half cannot eliminate the ground- water depletion cones observed in the area. Other hydrological and climatic elements, such as soil moisture, runoff generation, air humidity, precipitation, wind field, and soil and air temperature, were also significantly affected by anthropogenic water withdrawal and consumption, although these effects could be mitigated by reducing the amount of water drawn for extraction and application.展开更多
Increased human activities in China's coastal zone have resulted in the depletion of ecological land resources.Thus,conducting current and future multi-scenario simulation research on land use and land cover chang...Increased human activities in China's coastal zone have resulted in the depletion of ecological land resources.Thus,conducting current and future multi-scenario simulation research on land use and land cover change(LUCC)is crucial for guiding the healthy and sustainable development of coastal zones.System dynamic(SD)-future land use simulation(FLUS)model,a coupled simulation model,was developed to analyze land use dynamics in China's coastal zone.This model encompasses five scenarios,namely,SSP1-RCP2.6(A),SSP2-RCP4.5(B),SSP3-RCP4.5(C),SSP4-RCP4.5(D),and SSP5-RCP8.5(E).The SD model simulates land use demand on an annual basis up to the year 2100.Subsequently,the FLUS model determines the spatial distribution of land use for the near term(2035),medium term(2050),and long term(2100).Results reveal a slowing trend in land use changes in China's coastal zone from 2000–2020.Among these changes,the expansion rate of construction land was the highest and exhibited an annual decrease.By 2100,land use predictions exhibit high accuracy,and notable differences are observed in trends across scenarios.In summary,the expansion of production,living,and ecological spaces toward the sea remains prominent.Scenario A emphasizes reduced land resource dependence,benefiting ecological land protection.Scenario B witnesses an intensified expansion of artificial wetlands.Scenario C sees substantial land needs for living and production,while Scenario D shows coastal forest and grassland shrinkage.Lastly,in Scenario E,the conflict between humans and land intensifies.This study presents pertinent recommendations for the future development,utilization,and management of coastal areas in China.The research contributes valuable scientific support for informed,long-term strategic decision making within coastal regions.展开更多
Compared to the conventional phase change materials,the new phase change material Ta-Sb2Te3 has the advantages of excellent data retention and good material stability.In this letter,the etching characteristics of Ta-S...Compared to the conventional phase change materials,the new phase change material Ta-Sb2Te3 has the advantages of excellent data retention and good material stability.In this letter,the etching characteristics of Ta-Sb2Te3 were studied by using CF4/Ar.The results showed that when CF4/Ar=25/25,the etching power was 600 W and the etching pressure was 2.5 Pa,the etching speed was up to 61 nm/min.The etching pattern of Ta-Sb2Te3 film had a smooth side wall and good perpendicularity(close to 90°),smooth surface of the etching(RMS was 0.51nm),and the etching uniformity was fine.Furthermore,the mechanism of this etching process was analyzed by X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy(XPS).The main damage mechanism of ICP etching in CF4/Ar was studied by X-ray diffraction(XRD).展开更多
Considering phase changes associated with a high-temperature molten material cooled down from the outside,this work presents an improvement of the modelling and the numerical simulation of such processes for an applic...Considering phase changes associated with a high-temperature molten material cooled down from the outside,this work presents an improvement of the modelling and the numerical simulation of such processes for an application pertaining to the safety of light water nuclear reactors.Postulating a core meltdown accident,the behaviour of the core melt(aka corium)into a steel vessel is of tremendous importance when evaluating the vessel integrity.Evaluating correctly the heat fluxes requires the numerical simulation of the interaction between the liquid material and its solid counterpart which forms during the solidification process,but also may melt back.To simulate this configuration,encoun-tered in various industrial applications,one considers a bi-phase model constituted by a liquid phase in contact and interaction with its solid phase.The liquid phase may solidify in presence of low energetic source,while the solid phase may melt due to an intense heat flux from the high-temperature liquid.In the frame of the in-house legacy code,several simplifying assumptions(0D multi-layer discretization,instantaneous heat transfer via a quadratic temperature profile in solids)are made for the modelling of such phase changes.In the present work,these shortcomings are illustrated and further overcome by solving a 2D heat conduction model in the solid by a mixed Raviart-Thomas finite element method coupled to the liquid phase due to heat and mass exchanges through Stefan condition.The liquid phase is modeled with a 0D multi-layer approach.The 0D-liquid and 2D-solid mod-els are coupled by a Stefan like phase change interface model.Several sanity checks are performed to assess the validity of the approach on 1D and 2D academical configurations for which exact or reference solutions are available.Then more advanced situations(genu-ine multi-dimensional phase changes and an"industrial-like scenario")are simulated to verify the appropriate behavior of the obtained coupled simulation scheme.展开更多
OBJECTIVE To identify the mechanisms by which the formyl peptide receptor 2(FPR2)mediates both inflammatory and anti-inflammatory signaling in an agonist-dependent manner.METHODS Cells expressing FPR2 were incubated w...OBJECTIVE To identify the mechanisms by which the formyl peptide receptor 2(FPR2)mediates both inflammatory and anti-inflammatory signaling in an agonist-dependent manner.METHODS Cells expressing FPR2 were incubated with weak agonists,Aβ42 and Ac2-26,before stimulation with a strong agonist,WKYMVm.Calcium mobilization,c AMP inhibition and MAP kinase activation were measured.Intramolecular FRET were determined using FPR2 constructs with an ECFP attached to the C-terminus and a Fl As H binding motif embedded in the first or third intracellular loop(IL1 or IL3,respectively).RESULTS Aβ42 did not induce significant Ca^(2+) mobilization,but positively modulated WKYMVm-induced Ca^(2+) mobilization and c AMP reduction in a dose-variable manner within a narrow range of ligand concentrations.Treating FPR2-expressing cells with Ac2-26,a peptide with anti-inflammatory activity,negatively modulated WKYMVm-induced Ca^(2+) mobilization and c AMP reduction.Intramolecular FRET assay showed that stimulation of the receptor constructs with Aβ42 brought the C-terminal domain closer to IL1 but away from IL3.An opposite conformational change was induced by Ac2-26.The FPR2 conformation induced by Aβ42 corresponded to enhanced ERK phosphorylation and attenuated p38 MAPK phosphorylation,whereas Ac2-26 induced FPR2 conformational change corresponding to elevated p38 MAPK phosphorylation and reduced ERK phosphorylation.CONCLUSION Aβ42 and Ac2-26 induce different conformational changes in FPR2.These findings provide a structural basis for FPR2 mediation of inflammatory vs anti-inflammatory functions and identify a type of receptor modulation that differs from the classic positive and negative allosteric modulation.展开更多
Considering the three typical phase-change related rock mechanics phenomena during drilling and production in oil and gas reservoirs,which include phase change of solid alkane-related mixtures upon heating,sand liquef...Considering the three typical phase-change related rock mechanics phenomena during drilling and production in oil and gas reservoirs,which include phase change of solid alkane-related mixtures upon heating,sand liquefaction induced by sudden pressure release of the over-pressured sand body,and formation collapse due to gasification of pore fillings from pressure reduction,this study first systematically analyzes the progress of theoretical understanding,experimental methods,and mathematical representation,then discusses the engineering application scenarios corresponding to the three phenomena and reveals the mechanical principles and application effectiveness.Based on these research efforts,the study further discusses the significant challenges,potential developmental trends,and research approaches that require urgent exploration.The findings disclose that various phase-related rock mechanics phenomena require specific experimental and mathematical methods that can produce multi-field coupling mechanical mechanisms,which will eventually instruct the control on resource exploitation,evaluation on disaster level,and analysis of formation stability.To meet the development needs of the principle,future research efforts should focus on mining more phase-change related rock mechanics phenomena during oil and gas resources exploitation,developing novel experimental equipment,and using techniques of artificial intelligence and digital twins to implement real-time simulation and dynamic visualization of phase-change related rock mechanics.展开更多
Establishing power systems with a high share of renewable energy sources is a pivotal step toward achieving a globally sustainable transition to green and low-carbon energy.This study focuses on low-output wind power ...Establishing power systems with a high share of renewable energy sources is a pivotal step toward achieving a globally sustainable transition to green and low-carbon energy.This study focuses on low-output wind power that affects the generation capacity of power systems with a high share of renewable energy sources.Utilizing the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 datasets,a predictive model for low-output wind power was employed to investigate regional trends worldwide.The frequency and duration of low-output wind-power events exhibited increasing trends globally,particularly in East Asia and South America,but not in North America.By 2060,the annual total days with low-output wind power in East Asia and South America could rise to 13 and 5 d,and the maximum continuous duration of low-output wind power could reach 5 and 2 d,respectively.As wind power becomes a primary elec-tricity source,such low output could lead to shortages in energy supply within the power system,trig-gering large-scale power outages.This issue calls for critical attention when establishing power systems with a high share of renewable energy sources.The conclusions provide a basis for analyzing power supply risks and configuring flexible power sources for scenarios with a high share of renewable energy.展开更多
The sea-level change is resulted from superposition of sun, moon and other planeries, and earth itself, biological process, atmosphere and oceanography, as well as artificial actions. As a result, the sea level change...The sea-level change is resulted from superposition of sun, moon and other planeries, and earth itself, biological process, atmosphere and oceanography, as well as artificial actions. As a result, the sea level change is really a sensitive integral variation value of many variations, or a combined function of coupling effects of various big systems. Therefore the above mentioned superposed action of different systems and the coupling effect of sun earth and biological aspects may be called as sun earth biological coupling effect system. Based on this hypothesis, the corresponding sun dynamic, air dynamic, water dynamic and earth dynamic conceptional models are established in order to research the multiple coupling effects and feedback machsnism between these big systems. In order to determine the relations, effectness and coherent relation of different variations, the quantity, analysis is conducted through collective variation and stage division. The quantity analysis indicates that the earths spindle rotation speed is the dynamic mechanism controlling the sea level change of fluctuation. The change rate of sea level in the world is ＋1.32 ＋ 0.22 mm/a, while the sea level change rate in China is only＋1.39 ＋ 0.26 mm/a in average. If take the CO2 content as the climate marker, eight cold stages （periods） are grouped out since two hundreds years AC. The extreme cold of the eighth cold stage started approximately at 1850 years AC. and if the stage from the extreme cold to extreme warm is determined as long as 200 years, the present ongoing warm stage will end at about 2050 years, there after the temperature will begin to tower. If the stage between cold and warm extremes lasts for 250 years, then the temperature will become lower at about 2100 year. Until to that time, the sea-level is estimated to raise ＋7 - ＋11 ＋ 3.5 cm again, and there after, the sea level will begin the new lowering trend. In the same time, the climate will enter into next new cold stage subsequently.展开更多
基金supported by a National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) Innovation Team Project (Grant No. 40921004)the Fundamental Research Funds for Central Universities (Grant No. 0900841261005)
文摘Changes of air–sea coupling in the North Atlantic Ocean over the 20 th century are investigated using reanalysis data,climate model simulations, and observational data. It is found that the ocean-to-atmosphere feedback over the North Atlantic is significantly intensified in the second half of the 20 th century. This coupled feedback is characterized by the association between the summer North Atlantic Horseshoe（NAH） SST anomalies and the following winter North Atlantic Oscillation（NAO）. The intensification is likely associated with the enhancement of the North Atlantic storm tracks as well as the NAH SST anomalies. Our study also reveals that most IPCC AR4 climate models fail to capture the observed NAO/NAH coupled feedback.
基金Under the auspices of Major Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42293271)Alliance of International Science Organizations(No.ANSO-PA-2023-16)。
文摘Climate change brings new challenges to the sustainable development of agriculture in the new era.Accurately grasping the patterns of climate change impacts on agricultural systems is crucial for ensuring agricultural sustainability and food security.Taking the Loess Plateau(LP),China as an example,this study used a coupling coordination degree model and spatial autocorrelation analysis to portray the spatial and temporal features of crop-cropland coupling relationship from 2000 to 2020 and explored the impact law of climate change through geographically and temporally weighted regression(GTWR).The results were as follows:1)the crop-cropland coupling coordination degree of the LP showed a gradual upward trend from 2000 to 2020,forming a spatial pattern with lower values in the central region and higher values in the surrounding areas.2)There was a positive correlation in the spatial distribution of cropcropland coupling coordination degree in the LP from 2000 to 2020,and the high value-low value(H-L)and low value-low value(L-L)agglomerations continued to expand eastward,while the spatial and temporal evolution of the high value-high value(H-H)and low value-high value(L-H)agglomerations was not obvious.3)The impacts of climatic elements on crop-cropland coupling coordination degree in the LP showed strong heterogeneity in time scales.The inhibitory impacts of summer days(SU)and frost days(FD)accounted for a higher proportion,while the annual average temperature(TEM)had both promoting and inhibiting impacts.The impacts proportion and intensity of extreme heavy precipitation day(R25),continuous drought days(CDD),and annual precipitation(PRE)all experienced significant changes.4)In space,the impacts of SU and FD on the crop-cropland coupling coordination degree varied with latitude and altitude.The adaptability of the LP to R25 gradually strengthened,and the extensions of CDD and increase of PRE led to the increasing inhibition beyond the eastern region of LP,and TEM showed a promoting impact in the Fenwei Plain.As an important grainproducing area in China,the LP should actively deal with the impacts of climate change on the crop-cropland coupling relationship,vigorously safeguard food security,and promote sustainable agricultural development.
基金funded by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2022YFF1302903).
文摘The driving effects of climate change and human activities on vegetation change have always been a focal point of research.However,the coupling mechanisms of these driving factors across different temporal and spatial scales remain controversial.The Southwestern Alpine Canyon Region of China(SACR),as an ecologically fragile area,is highly sensitive to the impacts of climate change and human activities.This study constructed a vegetation cover dataset for the SACR based on the Enhanced Vegetation Index(EVI)from 2000 to 2020.Spatial autocorrelation,Theil-Sen trend,and Mann-Kendall tests were used to analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of vegetation cover changes.The main drivers of spatial heterogeneity in vegetation cover were identified using the optimal parameter geographic detector,and an improved residual analysis model was employed to quantify the relative contributions of climate change and human activities to interannual vegetation cover changes.The main findings are as follows:Spatially,vegetation cover exceeds 60%in most areas,especially in the southern part of the study area.However,the border area between Linzhi and Changdu exhibits lower vegetation cover.Climate factors are the primary drivers of spatial heterogeneity in vegetation cover,with temperature having the most significant influence,as indicated by its q-value,which far exceeds that of other factors.Additionally,the interaction q-value between the two factors significantly increases,showing a relationship of bivariate enhancement and nonlinear enhancement.In terms of temporal changes,vegetation cover shows an overall improving trend from 2000 to 2020,with significant increases observed in 68.93%of the study area.Among these,human activities are the main factors driving vegetation cover change,with a relative contribution rate of 41.31%,while climate change and residual factors contribute 35.66%and 23.53%,respectively.By thoroughly exploring the coupled mechanisms of vegetation change,this study provides important references for the sustainable management and conservation of the vegetation ecosystem in the SACR.
基金supported by the project of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41275082 and 41305070)the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. XDA05110103)the Knowledge Innovation Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant Nos. KZCX2-EW-QN208 and 7-122158)
文摘In this paper, a coupled model was used to estimate the responses of soil moisture and net primary production of vegetation(NPP) to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change. The analysis uses three experiments simulated by the second-generation Earth System Model(CanESM2) of the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis(CCCma), which are part of the phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5). The authors focus on the magnitude and evolution of responses in soil moisture and NPP using simulations modeled by CanESM, in which the individual effects of increasing CO2 concentration and climate change and their combined effect are separately accounted for. When considering only the single effect of climate change, the soil moisture and NPP have a linear trend of 0.03 kg m–2 yr–1 and –0.14 gC m–2 yr–2, respectively. However, such a reduction in the global NPP results from the decrease of NPP at lower latitudes and in the Southern Hemisphere, although increased NPP has been shown in high northern latitudes. The largest negative trend is located in the Amazon basin at –1.79 gC m–2 yr–2. For the individual effect of increasing CO2 concentration, both soil moisture and NPP show increases, with an elevated linear trend of 0.02 kg m–2 yr–1 and 0.84 gC m–2 yr–2, respectively. Most regions show an increasing NPP, except Alaska. For the combined effect of increasing atmospheric CO2 and climate change, the increased soil moisture and NPP exhibit a linear trend of 0.04 kg m–2 yr–1 and 0.83 gC m–2 yr–2 at a global scale. In the Amazon basin, the higher reduction in soil moisture is illustrated by the model, with a linear trend of –0.39 kg m–2 yr–1, for the combined effect. Such a change in soil moisture is caused by a weakened Walker circulation simulated by this coupled model, compared with the single effect of increasing CO2 concentration(experiment M2), and a consequence of the reduction in NPP is also shown in this area, with a linear trend of-0.16 gC m-2 yr-2.
基金Under the auspices of the Yunnan Scientist Workstation on International River Research of Daming He(No.KXJGZS-2019-005)National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42201040)+1 种基金National Key Research and Development Project of China(No.2016YFA0601601)China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(No.2023M733006)。
文摘Within the context of the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)and the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor(CMEC),the Dulong-Ir-rawaddy(Ayeyarwady)River,an international river among China,India and Myanmar,plays a significant role as both a valuable hydro-power resource and an essential ecological passageway.However,the water resources and security exhibit a high degree of vulnerabil-ity to climate change impacts.This research evaluates climate impacts on the hydrology of the Dulong-Irrawaddy River Basin(DIRB)by using a physical-based hydrologic model.We crafted future climate scenarios using the three latest global climate models(GCMs)from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6(CMIP6)under two shared socioeconomic pathways(SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5)for the near(2025-2049),mid(2050-2074),and far future(2075-2099).The regional model using MIKE SHE based on historical hydrologic processes was developed to further project future streamflow,demonstrating reliable performance in streamflow simulations with a val-idation Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency(NSE)of 0.72.Results showed that climate change projections showed increases in the annual precip-itation and potential evapotranspiration(PET),with precipitation increasing by 11.3%and 26.1%,and PET increasing by 3.2%and 4.9%,respectively,by the end of the century under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5.These changes are projected to result in increased annual streamflow at all stations,notably at the basin’s outlet(Pyay station)compared to the baseline period(with an increase of 16.1%and 37.0%at the end of the 21st century under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5,respectively).Seasonal analysis for Pyay station forecasts an in-crease in dry-season streamflow by 31.3%-48.9%and 22.5%-76.3%under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5,respectively,and an increase in wet-season streamflow by 5.8%-12.6%and 2.8%-33.3%,respectively.Moreover,the magnitude and frequency of flood events are pre-dicted to escalate,potentially impacting hydropower production and food security significantly.This research outlines the hydrological response to future climate change during the 21st century and offers a scientific basis for the water resource management strategies by decision-makers.
文摘Since the United Nations launched the Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs)in 2015,global implementation has steadily advanced,yet prominent challenges persist.Progress has been uneven across regions and countries,with Tajikistan representing a typical example of such disparities.Based on 81 SDG indicators for Tajikistan from 2001 to 2023,this study applied a three-level coupling network framework:at the microscale,it identified synergies and trade-offs between indicators;at the mesoscale,it examined the strength and direction of linkages within four SDG-related components(society,finance,governance,and environment);and at the global level,it focused on the overall SDG interlinkages.Spearman’s rank correlation,sliding window method,and topological properties were employed to analyze the coupling dynamics of SDGs.Results showed that over 70.00%of associations in the global SDG network were of medium-to-low intensity,alongside extremely strong ones(|r|value approached 1.00,where r is the correlation coefficient).SDG interactions were generally limited,with stable local synergy clusters in core livelihood sectors.Network modularity fluctuated,reflecting a cycle of differentiation,integration,and fragmentation,while coupling efficiency varied with the external environment.Each component exhibited distinct functional characteristics.The social component maintained high connectivity through the“poverty alleviation-education-healthcare”loop.The environmental component shifted toward coordinated eco-economic governance.The governance-related component broke interdepartmental barriers,while the financial component showed weak links between resource-based indicators and consumption/employment indicators.Tajikistan’s SDG coupling evolved through three phases:survival-oriented(2001–2012),policy integration(2013–2018),and shock adaptation(2019–2023).These phases were driven by policy changes,resource industries,governance optimization,and external factors.This study enriches the analytical framework for understanding the dynamic coupling of SDGs in mountainous resource-dependent countries and provides empirical evidence to support similar countries in formulating phase-specific SDG promotion strategies.
基金supported by the Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS)“Innovation Program”(ZKCX2-SW-210)State Key Project(G2000078502)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.40231004,40221503,and 40023001).
文摘Coupled ocean-atmospheric general circulation models are the only tools to quantitatively simulate the climate system. Since the end of the 1980s, a group of scientists in the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), have been working to develop a global OGCM and a global coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation modei (CGCM). Prom the original flux anomaly-coupling modei developed in the beginning of the 1990s to the latest directly-coupling modei, LASG scientists have developed four global coupled GCMs. This study summarizes the development history of these models and describes the third and fourth coupled GCMs and selected applications. Strengths and weaknesses of these models are highlighted.
基金Key Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.41731286The Postdoctoral Science Foundation of China,No.2018M630197
文摘Based on panel data from 1991, 2000 and 2010 at the county level in China, this study analyzed the coupling characteristics and spatio-temporal patterns of agricultural labor changes and economic development under rapid urbanization using quantitative and GIS spatial analysis methods. Three primary conclusions were obtained.(1) During 1991–2010, China's agricultural labor at the county level showed a decreasing trend, down 4.91% from 1991 to 2000 and 15.50% from 2000 to 2010. In spatial distribution, agricultural labor force has evolved by decreasing eastward and increasing westward.(2) During 1991–2010, China's agricultural economy at the county level showed a sustained growth trend, with a total increase of 140.13%, but with clear regional differences. The proportion of agricultural output in national GDP gradually decreased, characterized by decreases in eastern China and increases in western China.(3) The coupling types of economic-labor elasticity coefficient are mainly growth in northwest China, for both the agricultural economy and labor, and are intensive in southeast China, with growth of the agricultural economy and reduction of agricultural labor. Regions with lagged, fading, and declining coupling types are generally coincident with the high incidence of poverty in China. However, different coupling types had a positive developing trend for 1991–2010. Finally, based on the coupling types and spatial distribution characteristics of economic-labor elasticity coefficients, some policy suggestions are proposed to promote the integration of the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries and the vitalization of rural economies.
基金Jointly supported by the Special Research Foundation for Doctorate Programme of CollegesUniversities of the State Education Commission of China (No. 9549111), Fundamental Research Project from the State Commission of Science and Technology of ChinaNa
文摘Twenty orthosequences and their corresponding sea-level change (SLC) cycles have been recognized in the Devonian overlying the Caledonian unconformity, of which 9, 5.5 and 5.5 occurred in the Lower, Middle and Upper Devonian respectively. They can be grouped into 4 orthosequence sets, in which the maximum flooding surfaces lie in the sulcutus Zone (D12), perbonus Zone (D13), Middle and Upper varcus Zone (D22) and gigas Zone (D21) respectively. Four instant palaeogeographical reconstructions of South China have been made in the Emsian and Givetian. Devonian sea-level change rhythms of South China can be divided into 3 categories: the autorhythmic, the worldwide and regional allorhythmic, and the coupling-rhythmic. They developed respectively in the Famennian, Pragian, Eifelian, Lochkovian, Emsian, Givetian, Frasnian and the F / F (between the Frasnian and Famennian) event. The cause of the worldwide allorhythmic SLC of the Pragian and Eifelian under comparatively dry, warm and tranquil conditions may be related to the pulsating expanding and contracting of the oceanic basin volume or the earth volume pulsation, rather than the common glaciation and plate tectonism. The coupling-rhythmic SLC related to the F/ F event is a sensitive indicator of the interaction between terrestrial and extraterrestrial factors, and coordinated action among the earth-spheres.
文摘Carbon emissions and water use are two major kinds of human activities. To reveal whether these two activities can modify the hydrological cycle and climate system in China, we conducted two sets of numerical experiments using regional climate model RegCM4. In the first experiment used to study the climatic responses to human carbon emissions, the model were configured over entire China because the impacts of carbon emissions can be detected across the whole country. Results from the first experiment revealed that near-surface air temperature may significantly increase from 2007 to 2059 at a rate exceeding 0.1 ~C per decade in most areas across the country; southwestern and southeastern China also showed increasing trends in summer precipitation, with rates exceeding 10 mm per decade over the same period. In summer, only northern China showed an increasing trend of evapotranspiration, with increase rates ranging from 1 to 5 mm per decade; in winter, increase rates ranging from 1 to 5 mm per decade were observed in most regions. These effects are believed to be caused by global warming from human carbon emissions. In the second experiment used to study the effects of human water use, the model were configured over a limited region-- Haihe River Basin in the northern China, because compared with the human carbon emissions, the effects of human water use are much more local and regional, and the Haihe River Basin is the most typical region in China that suffers from both intensive human groundwater exploitation and surface water diversion. We incorporated a scheme of human water regulation into RegCM4 and conducted the second experiment. Model outputs showed that the groundwater table severely declined by -10 m in 1971-2000 through human groundwater over- exploitation in the basin; in fact, current conditions are so extreme that even reducing the pumping rate by half cannot eliminate the ground- water depletion cones observed in the area. Other hydrological and climatic elements, such as soil moisture, runoff generation, air humidity, precipitation, wind field, and soil and air temperature, were also significantly affected by anthropogenic water withdrawal and consumption, although these effects could be mitigated by reducing the amount of water drawn for extraction and application.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.42176221,41901133)Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (No.XDA19060205)Seed project of Yantai Institute of Coastal Zone Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences (No.YIC-E3518907)。
文摘Increased human activities in China's coastal zone have resulted in the depletion of ecological land resources.Thus,conducting current and future multi-scenario simulation research on land use and land cover change(LUCC)is crucial for guiding the healthy and sustainable development of coastal zones.System dynamic(SD)-future land use simulation(FLUS)model,a coupled simulation model,was developed to analyze land use dynamics in China's coastal zone.This model encompasses five scenarios,namely,SSP1-RCP2.6(A),SSP2-RCP4.5(B),SSP3-RCP4.5(C),SSP4-RCP4.5(D),and SSP5-RCP8.5(E).The SD model simulates land use demand on an annual basis up to the year 2100.Subsequently,the FLUS model determines the spatial distribution of land use for the near term(2035),medium term(2050),and long term(2100).Results reveal a slowing trend in land use changes in China's coastal zone from 2000–2020.Among these changes,the expansion rate of construction land was the highest and exhibited an annual decrease.By 2100,land use predictions exhibit high accuracy,and notable differences are observed in trends across scenarios.In summary,the expansion of production,living,and ecological spaces toward the sea remains prominent.Scenario A emphasizes reduced land resource dependence,benefiting ecological land protection.Scenario B witnesses an intensified expansion of artificial wetlands.Scenario C sees substantial land needs for living and production,while Scenario D shows coastal forest and grassland shrinkage.Lastly,in Scenario E,the conflict between humans and land intensifies.This study presents pertinent recommendations for the future development,utilization,and management of coastal areas in China.The research contributes valuable scientific support for informed,long-term strategic decision making within coastal regions.
基金This work was financially supported by the Natural Science Foundation of China(61874129)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2017YFB0405601).
文摘Compared to the conventional phase change materials,the new phase change material Ta-Sb2Te3 has the advantages of excellent data retention and good material stability.In this letter,the etching characteristics of Ta-Sb2Te3 were studied by using CF4/Ar.The results showed that when CF4/Ar=25/25,the etching power was 600 W and the etching pressure was 2.5 Pa,the etching speed was up to 61 nm/min.The etching pattern of Ta-Sb2Te3 film had a smooth side wall and good perpendicularity(close to 90°),smooth surface of the etching(RMS was 0.51nm),and the etching uniformity was fine.Furthermore,the mechanism of this etching process was analyzed by X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy(XPS).The main damage mechanism of ICP etching in CF4/Ar was studied by X-ray diffraction(XRD).
基金funded by CEA,EDF and Framatomefinancial and scientific support of CEA Cadarache.
文摘Considering phase changes associated with a high-temperature molten material cooled down from the outside,this work presents an improvement of the modelling and the numerical simulation of such processes for an application pertaining to the safety of light water nuclear reactors.Postulating a core meltdown accident,the behaviour of the core melt(aka corium)into a steel vessel is of tremendous importance when evaluating the vessel integrity.Evaluating correctly the heat fluxes requires the numerical simulation of the interaction between the liquid material and its solid counterpart which forms during the solidification process,but also may melt back.To simulate this configuration,encoun-tered in various industrial applications,one considers a bi-phase model constituted by a liquid phase in contact and interaction with its solid phase.The liquid phase may solidify in presence of low energetic source,while the solid phase may melt due to an intense heat flux from the high-temperature liquid.In the frame of the in-house legacy code,several simplifying assumptions(0D multi-layer discretization,instantaneous heat transfer via a quadratic temperature profile in solids)are made for the modelling of such phase changes.In the present work,these shortcomings are illustrated and further overcome by solving a 2D heat conduction model in the solid by a mixed Raviart-Thomas finite element method coupled to the liquid phase due to heat and mass exchanges through Stefan condition.The liquid phase is modeled with a 0D multi-layer approach.The 0D-liquid and 2D-solid mod-els are coupled by a Stefan like phase change interface model.Several sanity checks are performed to assess the validity of the approach on 1D and 2D academical configurations for which exact or reference solutions are available.Then more advanced situations(genu-ine multi-dimensional phase changes and an"industrial-like scenario")are simulated to verify the appropriate behavior of the obtained coupled simulation scheme.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(31470856 to RDY)the Science and Technology Development Fund of Macao(FDCT 072/2015/A2)the University of Macao(SRG2015-00047-ICMS-QRCM)
文摘OBJECTIVE To identify the mechanisms by which the formyl peptide receptor 2(FPR2)mediates both inflammatory and anti-inflammatory signaling in an agonist-dependent manner.METHODS Cells expressing FPR2 were incubated with weak agonists,Aβ42 and Ac2-26,before stimulation with a strong agonist,WKYMVm.Calcium mobilization,c AMP inhibition and MAP kinase activation were measured.Intramolecular FRET were determined using FPR2 constructs with an ECFP attached to the C-terminus and a Fl As H binding motif embedded in the first or third intracellular loop(IL1 or IL3,respectively).RESULTS Aβ42 did not induce significant Ca^(2+) mobilization,but positively modulated WKYMVm-induced Ca^(2+) mobilization and c AMP reduction in a dose-variable manner within a narrow range of ligand concentrations.Treating FPR2-expressing cells with Ac2-26,a peptide with anti-inflammatory activity,negatively modulated WKYMVm-induced Ca^(2+) mobilization and c AMP reduction.Intramolecular FRET assay showed that stimulation of the receptor constructs with Aβ42 brought the C-terminal domain closer to IL1 but away from IL3.An opposite conformational change was induced by Ac2-26.The FPR2 conformation induced by Aβ42 corresponded to enhanced ERK phosphorylation and attenuated p38 MAPK phosphorylation,whereas Ac2-26 induced FPR2 conformational change corresponding to elevated p38 MAPK phosphorylation and reduced ERK phosphorylation.CONCLUSION Aβ42 and Ac2-26 induce different conformational changes in FPR2.These findings provide a structural basis for FPR2 mediation of inflammatory vs anti-inflammatory functions and identify a type of receptor modulation that differs from the classic positive and negative allosteric modulation.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)Major Project(51991362).
文摘Considering the three typical phase-change related rock mechanics phenomena during drilling and production in oil and gas reservoirs,which include phase change of solid alkane-related mixtures upon heating,sand liquefaction induced by sudden pressure release of the over-pressured sand body,and formation collapse due to gasification of pore fillings from pressure reduction,this study first systematically analyzes the progress of theoretical understanding,experimental methods,and mathematical representation,then discusses the engineering application scenarios corresponding to the three phenomena and reveals the mechanical principles and application effectiveness.Based on these research efforts,the study further discusses the significant challenges,potential developmental trends,and research approaches that require urgent exploration.The findings disclose that various phase-related rock mechanics phenomena require specific experimental and mathematical methods that can produce multi-field coupling mechanical mechanisms,which will eventually instruct the control on resource exploitation,evaluation on disaster level,and analysis of formation stability.To meet the development needs of the principle,future research efforts should focus on mining more phase-change related rock mechanics phenomena during oil and gas resources exploitation,developing novel experimental equipment,and using techniques of artificial intelligence and digital twins to implement real-time simulation and dynamic visualization of phase-change related rock mechanics.
基金supported by the Joint Research Fund in Smart Grid(U1966601)under cooperative agreement between the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)and the State Grid Cor-poration of China(SGCC).
文摘Establishing power systems with a high share of renewable energy sources is a pivotal step toward achieving a globally sustainable transition to green and low-carbon energy.This study focuses on low-output wind power that affects the generation capacity of power systems with a high share of renewable energy sources.Utilizing the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 datasets,a predictive model for low-output wind power was employed to investigate regional trends worldwide.The frequency and duration of low-output wind-power events exhibited increasing trends globally,particularly in East Asia and South America,but not in North America.By 2060,the annual total days with low-output wind power in East Asia and South America could rise to 13 and 5 d,and the maximum continuous duration of low-output wind power could reach 5 and 2 d,respectively.As wind power becomes a primary elec-tricity source,such low output could lead to shortages in energy supply within the power system,trig-gering large-scale power outages.This issue calls for critical attention when establishing power systems with a high share of renewable energy sources.The conclusions provide a basis for analyzing power supply risks and configuring flexible power sources for scenarios with a high share of renewable energy.
基金supported by the National Natural Foundation of China(40940025)National Science Foundation of Tianjin(07ZCGYSF02400,09JCYBJC07400)+2 种基金Program of China"973"(2007CB411807)Open Fund of the Key Lab of Global Change and Marine-Atmospheric Chemistry,SOA(GCMAC0806)National Natural ScienceFoundation(41006002)
文摘The sea-level change is resulted from superposition of sun, moon and other planeries, and earth itself, biological process, atmosphere and oceanography, as well as artificial actions. As a result, the sea level change is really a sensitive integral variation value of many variations, or a combined function of coupling effects of various big systems. Therefore the above mentioned superposed action of different systems and the coupling effect of sun earth and biological aspects may be called as sun earth biological coupling effect system. Based on this hypothesis, the corresponding sun dynamic, air dynamic, water dynamic and earth dynamic conceptional models are established in order to research the multiple coupling effects and feedback machsnism between these big systems. In order to determine the relations, effectness and coherent relation of different variations, the quantity, analysis is conducted through collective variation and stage division. The quantity analysis indicates that the earths spindle rotation speed is the dynamic mechanism controlling the sea level change of fluctuation. The change rate of sea level in the world is ＋1.32 ＋ 0.22 mm/a, while the sea level change rate in China is only＋1.39 ＋ 0.26 mm/a in average. If take the CO2 content as the climate marker, eight cold stages （periods） are grouped out since two hundreds years AC. The extreme cold of the eighth cold stage started approximately at 1850 years AC. and if the stage from the extreme cold to extreme warm is determined as long as 200 years, the present ongoing warm stage will end at about 2050 years, there after the temperature will begin to tower. If the stage between cold and warm extremes lasts for 250 years, then the temperature will become lower at about 2100 year. Until to that time, the sea-level is estimated to raise ＋7 - ＋11 ＋ 3.5 cm again, and there after, the sea level will begin the new lowering trend. In the same time, the climate will enter into next new cold stage subsequently.
