Predicting monsoon climate is one of the major endeavors in climate science and is becoming increasingly challenging due to global warming. The accuracy of monsoon seasonal predictions significantly impacts the lives ...Predicting monsoon climate is one of the major endeavors in climate science and is becoming increasingly challenging due to global warming. The accuracy of monsoon seasonal predictions significantly impacts the lives of billions who depend on or are affected by monsoons, as it is essential for the water cycle, food security, ecology, disaster prevention, and the economy of monsoon regions. Given the extensive literature on Asian monsoon climate prediction, we limit our focus to reviewing the seasonal prediction and predictability of the Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM). However, much of this review is also relevant to monsoon predictions in other seasons and regions. Over the past two decades, considerable progress has been made in the seasonal forecasting of the ASM, driven by an enhanced understanding of the sources of predictability and the dynamics of seasonal variability, along with advanced development in sophisticated models and technologies. This review centers on advances in understanding the physical foundation for monsoon climate prediction (section 2), significant findings and insights into the primary and regional sources of predictability arising from feedback processes among various climate components (sections 3 and 4), the effects of global warming and external forcings on predictability (section 5), developments in seasonal prediction models and techniques (section 6), the challenges and limitations of monsoon climate prediction (section 7), and emerging research trends with suggestions for future directions (section 8). We hope this review will stimulate creative activities to enhance monsoon climate prediction.展开更多
Customer churn is the rate at which customers discontinue doing business with a company over a given time period.It is an essential measure for businesses to monitor high churn rates,as they often indicate underlying ...Customer churn is the rate at which customers discontinue doing business with a company over a given time period.It is an essential measure for businesses to monitor high churn rates,as they often indicate underlying issues with services,products,or customer experience,resulting in considerable income loss.Prediction of customer churn is a crucial task aimed at retaining customers and maintaining revenue growth.Traditional machine learning(ML)models often struggle to capture complex temporal dependencies in client behavior data.To address this,an optimized deep learning(DL)approach using a Regularized Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory(RBiLSTM)model is proposed to mitigate overfitting and improve generalization error.The model integrates dropout,L2-regularization,and early stopping to enhance predictive accuracy while preventing over-reliance on specific patterns.Moreover,this study investigates the effect of optimization techniques on boosting the training efficiency of the developed model.Experimental results on a recent public customer churn dataset demonstrate that the trained model outperforms the traditional ML models and some other DL models,such as Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM)and Deep Neural Network(DNN),in churn prediction performance and stability.The proposed approach achieves 96.1%accuracy,compared with LSTM and DNN,which attain 94.5%and 94.1%accuracy,respectively.These results confirm that the proposed approach can be used as a valuable tool for businesses to identify at-risk consumers proactively and implement targeted retention strategies.展开更多
To achieve low-carbon regulation of electric vehicle(EV)charging loads under the“dual carbon”goals,this paper proposes a coordinated scheduling strategy that integrates dynamic carbon factor prediction and multiobje...To achieve low-carbon regulation of electric vehicle(EV)charging loads under the“dual carbon”goals,this paper proposes a coordinated scheduling strategy that integrates dynamic carbon factor prediction and multiobjective optimization.First,a dual-convolution enhanced improved Crossformer prediction model is constructed,which employs parallel 1×1 global and 3×3 local convolutionmodules(Integrated Convolution Block,ICB)formultiscale feature extraction,combinedwith anAdaptive Spectral Block(ASB)to enhance time-series fluctuationmodeling.Based on high-precision predictions,a carbon-electricity cost joint optimization model is further designed to balance economic,environmental,and grid-friendly objectives.The model’s superiority was validated through a case study using real-world data from a renewable-heavy grid.Simulation results show that the proposed multi-objective strategy demonstrated a superior balance compared to baseline and benchmark models,achieving a 15.8%reduction in carbon emissions and a 5.2%reduction in economic costs,while still providing a substantial 22.2%reduction in the peak-valley difference.Its balanced performance significantly outperformed both a single-objective strategy and a state-of-the-art Model Predictive Control(MPC)benchmark,highlighting the advantage of a global optimization approach.This study provides theoretical and technical pathways for dynamic carbon factor-driven EV charging optimization.展开更多
Machine learning-assisted methods for rapid and accurate prediction of temperature field,mushy zone,and grain size were proposed for the heating−cooling combined mold(HCCM)horizontal continuous casting of C70250 alloy...Machine learning-assisted methods for rapid and accurate prediction of temperature field,mushy zone,and grain size were proposed for the heating−cooling combined mold(HCCM)horizontal continuous casting of C70250 alloy plates.First,finite element simulations of casting processes were carried out with various parameters to build a dataset.Subsequently,different machine learning algorithms were employed to achieve high precision in predicting temperature fields,mushy zone locations,mushy zone inclination angle,and billet grain size.Finally,the process parameters were quickly optimized using a strategy consisting of random generation,prediction,and screening,allowing the mushy zone to be controlled to the desired target.The optimized parameters are 1234℃for heating mold temperature,47 mm/min for casting speed,and 10 L/min for cooling water flow rate.The optimized mushy zone is located in the middle of the second heat insulation section and has an inclination angle of roughly 7°.展开更多
Current shipping,tourism,and resource development requirements call for more accurate predictions of the Arctic sea-ice concentration(SIC).However,due to the complex physical processes involved,predicting the spatiote...Current shipping,tourism,and resource development requirements call for more accurate predictions of the Arctic sea-ice concentration(SIC).However,due to the complex physical processes involved,predicting the spatiotemporal distribution of Arctic SIC is more challenging than predicting its total extent.In this study,spatiotemporal prediction models for monthly Arctic SIC at 1-to 3-month leads are developed based on U-Net-an effective convolutional deep-learning approach.Based on explicit Arctic sea-ice-atmosphere interactions,11 variables associated with Arctic sea-ice variations are selected as predictors,including observed Arctic SIC,atmospheric,oceanic,and heat flux variables at 1-to 3-month leads.The prediction skills for the monthly Arctic SIC of the test set(from January 2018 to December 2022)are evaluated by examining the mean absolute error(MAE)and binary accuracy(BA).Results showed that the U-Net model had lower MAE and higher BA for Arctic SIC compared to two dynamic climate prediction systems(CFSv2 and NorCPM).By analyzing the relative importance of each predictor,the prediction accuracy relies more on the SIC at the 1-month lead,but on the surface net solar radiation flux at 2-to 3-month leads.However,dynamic models show limited prediction skills for surface net solar radiation flux and other physical processes,especially in autumn.Therefore,the U-Net model can be used to capture the connections among these key physical processes associated with Arctic sea ice and thus offers a significant advantage in predicting Arctic SIC.展开更多
Accurate prediction of flood events is important for flood control and risk management.Machine learning techniques contributed greatly to advances in flood predictions,and existing studies mainly focused on predicting...Accurate prediction of flood events is important for flood control and risk management.Machine learning techniques contributed greatly to advances in flood predictions,and existing studies mainly focused on predicting flood resource variables using single or hybrid machine learning techniques.However,class-based flood predictions have rarely been investigated,which can aid in quickly diagnosing comprehensive flood characteristics and proposing targeted management strategies.This study proposed a prediction approach of flood regime metrics and event classes coupling machine learning algorithms with clustering-deduced membership degrees.Five algorithms were adopted for this exploration.Results showed that the class membership degrees accurately determined event classes with class hit rates up to 100%,compared with the four classes clustered from nine regime metrics.The nonlinear algorithms(Multiple Linear Regression,Random Forest,and least squares-Support Vector Machine)outperformed the linear techniques(Multiple Linear Regression and Stepwise Regression)in predicting flood regime metrics.The proposed approach well predicted flood event classes with average class hit rates of 66.0%-85.4%and 47.2%-76.0%in calibration and validation periods,respectively,particularly for the slow and late flood events.The predictive capability of the proposed prediction approach for flood regime metrics and classes was considerably stronger than that of hydrological modeling approach.展开更多
The integration of machine learning(ML)technology with Internet of Things(IoT)systems produces essential changes in healthcare operations.Healthcare personnel can track patients around the clock thanks to healthcare I...The integration of machine learning(ML)technology with Internet of Things(IoT)systems produces essential changes in healthcare operations.Healthcare personnel can track patients around the clock thanks to healthcare IoT(H-IoT)technology,which also provides proactive statistical findings and precise medical diagnoses that enhance healthcare performance.This study examines how ML might support IoT-based health care systems,namely in the areas of prognostic systems,disease detection,patient tracking,and healthcare operations control.The study looks at the benefits and drawbacks of several machine learning techniques for H-IoT applications.It also examines the fundamental problems,such as data security and cyberthreats,as well as the high processing demands that these systems face.Alongside this,the essay discusses the advantages of all the technologies,including machine learning,deep learning,and the Internet of Things,as well as the significant difficulties and problems that arise when integrating the technology into healthcare forecasts.展开更多
Amphibious vehicles are more prone to attitude instability compared to ships,making it crucial to develop effective methods for monitoring instability risks.However,large inclination events,which can lead to instabili...Amphibious vehicles are more prone to attitude instability compared to ships,making it crucial to develop effective methods for monitoring instability risks.However,large inclination events,which can lead to instability,occur frequently in both experimental and operational data.This infrequency causes events to be overlooked by existing prediction models,which lack the precision to accurately predict inclination attitudes in amphibious vehicles.To address this gap in predicting attitudes near extreme inclination points,this study introduces a novel loss function,termed generalized extreme value loss.Subsequently,a deep learning model for improved waterborne attitude prediction,termed iInformer,was developed using a Transformer-based approach.During the embedding phase,a text prototype is created based on the vehicle’s operation log data is constructed to help the model better understand the vehicle’s operating environment.Data segmentation techniques are used to highlight local data variation features.Furthermore,to mitigate issues related to poor convergence and slow training speeds caused by the extreme value loss function,a teacher forcing mechanism is integrated into the model,enhancing its convergence capabilities.Experimental results validate the effectiveness of the proposed method,demonstrating its ability to handle data imbalance challenges.Specifically,the model achieves over a 60%improvement in root mean square error under extreme value conditions,with significant improvements observed across additional metrics.展开更多
Sinter is the core raw material for blast furnaces.Flue pressure,which is an important state parameter,affects sinter quality.In this paper,flue pressure prediction and optimization were studied based on the shapley a...Sinter is the core raw material for blast furnaces.Flue pressure,which is an important state parameter,affects sinter quality.In this paper,flue pressure prediction and optimization were studied based on the shapley additive explanation(SHAP)to predict the flue pressure and take targeted adjustment measures.First,the sintering process data were collected and processed.A flue pressure prediction model was then constructed after comparing different feature selection methods and model algorithms using SHAP+extremely random-ized trees(ET).The prediction accuracy of the model within the error range of±0.25 kPa was 92.63%.SHAP analysis was employed to improve the interpretability of the prediction model.The effects of various sintering operation parameters on flue pressure,the relation-ship between the numerical range of key operation parameters and flue pressure,the effect of operation parameter combinations on flue pressure,and the prediction process of the flue pressure prediction model on a single sample were analyzed.A flue pressure optimization module was also constructed and analyzed when the prediction satisfied the judgment conditions.The operating parameter combination was then pushed.The flue pressure was increased by 5.87%during the verification process,achieving a good optimization effect.展开更多
Photovoltaic (PV) modules, as essential components of solar power generation systems, significantly influence unitpower generation costs.The service life of these modules directly affects these costs. Over time, the p...Photovoltaic (PV) modules, as essential components of solar power generation systems, significantly influence unitpower generation costs.The service life of these modules directly affects these costs. Over time, the performanceof PV modules gradually declines due to internal degradation and external environmental factors.This cumulativedegradation impacts the overall reliability of photovoltaic power generation. This study addresses the complexdegradation process of PV modules by developing a two-stage Wiener process model. This approach accountsfor the distinct phases of degradation resulting from module aging and environmental influences. A powerdegradation model based on the two-stage Wiener process is constructed to describe individual differences inmodule degradation processes. To estimate the model parameters, a combination of the Expectation-Maximization(EM) algorithm and the Bayesian method is employed. Furthermore, the Schwarz Information Criterion (SIC) isutilized to identify critical change points in PV module degradation trajectories. To validate the universality andeffectiveness of the proposed method, a comparative analysis is conducted against other established life predictiontechniques for PV modules.展开更多
Objective:To compare the clinical efficacy of mifepristone-misoprostol medical management versus surgical curettage for first-trimester missed miscarriage,and to establish evidence-based sonographic cutoff values pred...Objective:To compare the clinical efficacy of mifepristone-misoprostol medical management versus surgical curettage for first-trimester missed miscarriage,and to establish evidence-based sonographic cutoff values predictive of incomplete abortion requiring surgical intervention.Methods:We retrospectively analyzed a cohort of 702 women diagnosed with first-trimester missed miscarriage between January 2020 and May 2023.Demographic characteristics and ultrasound parameters were systematically recorded.Receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve analysis was performed to establish optimal sonographic cutoff values for predicting incomplete abortion requiring surgical intervention.Results:146 patients received medical treatment(mifepristone and misoprostol)and 556 underwent surgical curettage.At the 1-month follow-up,the medical group showed significantly greater endometrial thickness and longer postoperative bleeding duration than the surgical group(P<0.05).The menstrual volume reduction rate(23.56%)was significantly lower in the medical group than in the surgical group.The incomplete abortion rate was higher in the medical group(17.12%,25/146)than in the surgical group(2.88%,16/556).Among the medical group,14 patients(9.59%)required curettage due to incomplete abortion,while 11 cases resolved spontaneously after prolonged medication.ROC curve analysis identified two cut-off values indicating the need for surgical intervention:endometrial thickness>1.21 cm at 24 h post-medical abortion,and residual mass diameter>0.95 cm at 7 days post-medical abortion.Conclusions:Medical management of first-trimester missed miscarriage using mifepristone-misoprostol demonstrates comparable efficacy to surgical curettage.An endometrial thickness>1.21 cm at 24 h or residual tissue diameter>0.95 cm at 7 days post-medical abortion should prompt consideration of incomplete abortion.展开更多
Accurate and efficient prediction of the distribution of surface loads on buildings subjected to explosive effects is crucial for rapidly calculating structural dynamic responses,establishing effective protective meas...Accurate and efficient prediction of the distribution of surface loads on buildings subjected to explosive effects is crucial for rapidly calculating structural dynamic responses,establishing effective protective measures,and designing civil defense engineering solutions.Current state-of-the-art methods face several issues:Experimental research is difficult and costly to implement,theoretical research is limited to simple geometries and lacks precision,and direct simulations require substantial computational resources.To address these challenges,this paper presents a data-driven method for predicting blast loads on building surfaces.This approach increases both the accuracy and computational efficiency of load predictions when the geometry of the building changes while the explosive yield remains constant,significantly improving its applicability in complex scenarios.This study introduces an innovative encoder-decoder graph neural network model named BlastGraphNet,which uses a message-passing mechanism to predict the overpressure and impulse load distributions on buildings with conventional and complex geometries during explosive events.The model also facilitates related downstream applications,such as damage mode identification and rapid assessment of virtual city explosions.The calculation results indicate that the prediction error of the model for conventional building tests is less than 2%,and its inference speed is 3-4 orders of magnitude faster than that of state-of-the-art numerical methods.In extreme test cases involving buildings with complex geometries and building clusters,the method achieved high accuracy and excellent generalizability.The strong adaptability and generalizability of BlastGraphNet confirm that this novel method enables precise real-time prediction of blast loads and provides a new paradigm for damage assessment in protective engineering.展开更多
Accurate channel state information(CSI)is crucial for 6G wireless communication systems to accommodate the growing demands of mobile broadband services.In massive multiple-input multiple-output(MIMO)systems,traditiona...Accurate channel state information(CSI)is crucial for 6G wireless communication systems to accommodate the growing demands of mobile broadband services.In massive multiple-input multiple-output(MIMO)systems,traditional CSI feedback approaches face challenges such as performance degradation due to feedback delay and channel aging caused by user mobility.To address these issues,we propose a novel spatio-temporal predictive network(STPNet)that jointly integrates CSI feedback and prediction modules.STPNet employs stacked Inception modules to learn the spatial correlation and temporal evolution of CSI,which captures both the local and the global spatiotemporal features.In addition,the signal-to-noise ratio(SNR)adaptive module is designed to adapt flexibly to diverse feedback channel conditions.Simulation results demonstrate that STPNet outperforms existing channel prediction methods under various channel conditions.展开更多
Phenotypic prediction is a promising strategy for accelerating plant breeding.Data from multiple sources(called multi-view data)can provide complementary information to characterize a biological object from various as...Phenotypic prediction is a promising strategy for accelerating plant breeding.Data from multiple sources(called multi-view data)can provide complementary information to characterize a biological object from various aspects.By integrating multi-view information into phenotypic prediction,a multi-view best linear unbiased prediction(MVBLUP)method is proposed in this paper.To measure the importance of multiple data views,the differential evolution algorithm with an early stopping mechanism is used,by which we obtain a multi-view kinship matrix and then incorporate it into the BLUP model for phenotypic prediction.To further illustrate the characteristics of MVBLUP,we perform the empirical experiments on four multi-view datasets in different crops.Compared to the single-view method,the prediction accuracy of the MVBLUP method has improved by 0.038–0.201 on average.The results demonstrate that the MVBLUP is an effective integrative prediction method for multi-view data.展开更多
Influenced by complex external factors,the displacement-time curve of reservoir landslides demonstrates both short-term and long-term diversity and dynamic complexity.It is difficult for existing methods,including Reg...Influenced by complex external factors,the displacement-time curve of reservoir landslides demonstrates both short-term and long-term diversity and dynamic complexity.It is difficult for existing methods,including Regression models and Neural network models,to perform multi-characteristic coupled displacement prediction because they fail to consider landslide creep characteristics.This paper integrates the creep characteristics of landslides with non-linear intelligent algorithms and proposes a dynamic intelligent landslide displacement prediction method based on a combination of the Biological Growth model(BG),Convolutional Neural Network(CNN),and Long ShortTerm Memory Network(LSTM).This prediction approach improves three different biological growth models,thereby effectively extracting landslide creep characteristic parameters.Simultaneously,it integrates external factors(rainfall and reservoir water level)to construct an internal and external comprehensive dataset for data augmentation,which is input into the improved CNN-LSTM model.Thereafter,harnessing the robust feature extraction capabilities and spatial translation invariance of CNN,the model autonomously captures short-term local fluctuation characteristics of landslide displacement,and combines LSTM's efficient handling of long-term nonlinear temporal data to improve prediction performance.An evaluation of the Liangshuijing landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area indicates that BG-CNN-LSTM exhibits high prediction accuracy,excellent generalization capabilities when dealing with various types of landslides.The research provides an innovative approach to achieving the whole-process,realtime,high-precision displacement predictions for multicharacteristic coupled landslides.展开更多
In this article,our nonlinear theory and technology for reducing the uncertainties of high-impact ocean‒atmosphere event predictions,with the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP)method as its core,are revi...In this article,our nonlinear theory and technology for reducing the uncertainties of high-impact ocean‒atmosphere event predictions,with the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP)method as its core,are reviewed,and the“spring predictability barrier”problem for El Nino‒Southern Oscillation events and targeted observation issues for tropical cyclone forecasts are taken as two representative examples.Nonlinear theory reveals that initial errors of particular spatial structures,environmental conditions,and nonlinear processes contribute to significant prediction errors,whereas nonlinear technology provides a pioneering approach for reducing observational and forecast errors via targeted observations through the application of the CNOP method.Follow-up research further validates the scientific rigor of the theory in revealing the nonlinear mechanism of significant prediction errors,and relevant practical field campaigns for targeted observations verify the effectiveness of the technology in reducing prediction uncertainties.The CNOP method has achieved international recognition;furthermore,its applications further extend to ensemble forecasts for weather and climate and further enrich the nonlinear technology for reducing prediction uncertainties.It is expected that this nonlinear theory and technology will play a considerably important role in reducing prediction uncertainties for high-impact weather and climate events.展开更多
Stock price prediction is a typical complex time series prediction problem characterized by dynamics,nonlinearity,and complexity.This paper introduces a generative adversarial network model that incorporates an attent...Stock price prediction is a typical complex time series prediction problem characterized by dynamics,nonlinearity,and complexity.This paper introduces a generative adversarial network model that incorporates an attention mechanism(GAN-LSTM-Attention)to improve the accuracy of stock price prediction.Firstly,the generator of this model combines the Long and Short-Term Memory Network(LSTM),the Attention Mechanism and,the Fully-Connected Layer,focusing on generating the predicted stock price.The discriminator combines the Convolutional Neural Network(CNN)and the Fully-Connected Layer to discriminate between real stock prices and generated stock prices.Secondly,to evaluate the practical application ability and generalization ability of the GAN-LSTM-Attention model,four representative stocks in the United States of America(USA)stock market,namely,Standard&Poor’s 500 Index stock,Apple Incorporatedstock,AdvancedMicroDevices Incorporatedstock,and Google Incorporated stock were selected for prediction experiments,and the prediction performance was comprehensively evaluated by using the three evaluation metrics,namely,mean absolute error(MAE),root mean square error(RMSE),and coefficient of determination(R2).Finally,the specific effects of the attention mechanism,convolutional layer,and fully-connected layer on the prediction performance of the model are systematically analyzed through ablation study.The results of experiment show that the GAN-LSTM-Attention model exhibits excellent performance and robustness in stock price prediction.展开更多
Harnessing solar power is essential for addressing the dual challenges of global warming and the depletion of traditional energy sources.However,the fluctuations and intermittency of photovoltaic(PV)power pose challen...Harnessing solar power is essential for addressing the dual challenges of global warming and the depletion of traditional energy sources.However,the fluctuations and intermittency of photovoltaic(PV)power pose challenges for its extensive incorporation into power grids.Thus,enhancing the precision of PV power prediction is particularly important.Although existing studies have made progress in short-term prediction,issues persist,particularly in the underutilization of temporal features and the neglect of correlations between satellite cloud images and PV power data.These factors hinder improvements in PV power prediction performance.To overcome these challenges,this paper proposes a novel PV power prediction method based on multi-stage temporal feature learning.First,the improved LSTMand SA-ConvLSTMare employed to extract the temporal feature of PV power and the spatial-temporal feature of satellite cloud images,respectively.Subsequently,a novel hybrid attention mechanism is proposed to identify the interplay between the two modalities,enhancing the capacity to focus on the most relevant features.Finally,theTransformermodel is applied to further capture the short-termtemporal patterns and long-term dependencies within multi-modal feature information.The paper also compares the proposed method with various competitive methods.The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms the competitive methods in terms of accuracy and reliability in short-term PV power prediction.展开更多
Objective The Asia-Pacific region has a high chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(COPD)burden,but studies on its trends are limited.Using the Global Burden of Disease(GBD)2019 data,we analyzed COPD trends in 36 count...Objective The Asia-Pacific region has a high chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(COPD)burden,but studies on its trends are limited.Using the Global Burden of Disease(GBD)2019 data,we analyzed COPD trends in 36 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019 and predicted future incidence trends through 2034.Methods COPD data by age and sex from the GBD 2019 database were analyzed for incidence,prevalence,mortality,and disability-adjusted life years(DALY)rates from 1990 to 2019.Joinpoint regression identified significant annual trends,and age-standardized incidence rates were predicted through 2034 using age-period-cohort models.Results The incidence,prevalence,mortality,and disease burden of COPD have been decreasing,and the incidence rates will continue to decrease or remain stable until 2034 in most selected countries and territories,except for a few Southeastern Asian countries.The Lao People’s Democratic Republic and Vietnam are projected to experience an increase in COPD incidence from 165.3 per 100,000 in 2019 to 177 per 100,000 in 2034 and from 179.9 per 100,000 in 2019 to 192.5 per 100,000 in 2034,respectively.Older males had a higher incidence than any other sex or age group.The sex gap in incidence rates continues to widen,though it is smaller and less significant in the younger age group than in those in the older one.Conclusion COPD rates are expected to decline until 2034 but remain a health risk,especially in countries with rising rates.Urgent action on tobacco control,air pollution,and public education is needed.展开更多
As an effective strategy to address urban traffic congestion,traffic flow prediction has gained attention from Federated-Learning(FL)researchers due FL’s ability to preserving data privacy.However,existing methods fa...As an effective strategy to address urban traffic congestion,traffic flow prediction has gained attention from Federated-Learning(FL)researchers due FL’s ability to preserving data privacy.However,existing methods face challenges:some are too simplistic to capture complex traffic patterns effectively,and others are overly complex,leading to excessive communication overhead between cloud and edge devices.Moreover,the problem of single point failure limits their robustness and reliability in real-world applications.To tackle these challenges,this paper proposes a new method,CMBA-FL,a Communication-Mitigated and Blockchain-Assisted Federated Learning model.First,CMBA-FL improves the client model’s ability to capture temporal traffic patterns by employing the Encoder-Decoder framework for each edge device.Second,to reduce the communication overhead during federated learning,we introduce a verification method based on parameter update consistency,avoiding unnecessary parameter updates.Third,to mitigate the risk of a single point of failure,we integrate consensus mechanisms from blockchain technology.To validate the effectiveness of CMBA-FL,we assess its performance on two widely used traffic datasets.Our experimental results show that CMBA-FL reduces prediction error by 11.46%,significantly lowers communication overhead,and improves security.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.U2342208)support from NSF/Climate Dynamics Award#2025057。
文摘Predicting monsoon climate is one of the major endeavors in climate science and is becoming increasingly challenging due to global warming. The accuracy of monsoon seasonal predictions significantly impacts the lives of billions who depend on or are affected by monsoons, as it is essential for the water cycle, food security, ecology, disaster prevention, and the economy of monsoon regions. Given the extensive literature on Asian monsoon climate prediction, we limit our focus to reviewing the seasonal prediction and predictability of the Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM). However, much of this review is also relevant to monsoon predictions in other seasons and regions. Over the past two decades, considerable progress has been made in the seasonal forecasting of the ASM, driven by an enhanced understanding of the sources of predictability and the dynamics of seasonal variability, along with advanced development in sophisticated models and technologies. This review centers on advances in understanding the physical foundation for monsoon climate prediction (section 2), significant findings and insights into the primary and regional sources of predictability arising from feedback processes among various climate components (sections 3 and 4), the effects of global warming and external forcings on predictability (section 5), developments in seasonal prediction models and techniques (section 6), the challenges and limitations of monsoon climate prediction (section 7), and emerging research trends with suggestions for future directions (section 8). We hope this review will stimulate creative activities to enhance monsoon climate prediction.
文摘Customer churn is the rate at which customers discontinue doing business with a company over a given time period.It is an essential measure for businesses to monitor high churn rates,as they often indicate underlying issues with services,products,or customer experience,resulting in considerable income loss.Prediction of customer churn is a crucial task aimed at retaining customers and maintaining revenue growth.Traditional machine learning(ML)models often struggle to capture complex temporal dependencies in client behavior data.To address this,an optimized deep learning(DL)approach using a Regularized Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory(RBiLSTM)model is proposed to mitigate overfitting and improve generalization error.The model integrates dropout,L2-regularization,and early stopping to enhance predictive accuracy while preventing over-reliance on specific patterns.Moreover,this study investigates the effect of optimization techniques on boosting the training efficiency of the developed model.Experimental results on a recent public customer churn dataset demonstrate that the trained model outperforms the traditional ML models and some other DL models,such as Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM)and Deep Neural Network(DNN),in churn prediction performance and stability.The proposed approach achieves 96.1%accuracy,compared with LSTM and DNN,which attain 94.5%and 94.1%accuracy,respectively.These results confirm that the proposed approach can be used as a valuable tool for businesses to identify at-risk consumers proactively and implement targeted retention strategies.
基金Supported by State Grid Corporation of China Science and Technology Project:Research on Key Technologies for Intelligent Carbon Metrology in Vehicle-to-Grid Interaction(Project Number:B3018524000Q).
文摘To achieve low-carbon regulation of electric vehicle(EV)charging loads under the“dual carbon”goals,this paper proposes a coordinated scheduling strategy that integrates dynamic carbon factor prediction and multiobjective optimization.First,a dual-convolution enhanced improved Crossformer prediction model is constructed,which employs parallel 1×1 global and 3×3 local convolutionmodules(Integrated Convolution Block,ICB)formultiscale feature extraction,combinedwith anAdaptive Spectral Block(ASB)to enhance time-series fluctuationmodeling.Based on high-precision predictions,a carbon-electricity cost joint optimization model is further designed to balance economic,environmental,and grid-friendly objectives.The model’s superiority was validated through a case study using real-world data from a renewable-heavy grid.Simulation results show that the proposed multi-objective strategy demonstrated a superior balance compared to baseline and benchmark models,achieving a 15.8%reduction in carbon emissions and a 5.2%reduction in economic costs,while still providing a substantial 22.2%reduction in the peak-valley difference.Its balanced performance significantly outperformed both a single-objective strategy and a state-of-the-art Model Predictive Control(MPC)benchmark,highlighting the advantage of a global optimization approach.This study provides theoretical and technical pathways for dynamic carbon factor-driven EV charging optimization.
基金financially supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (No. 2023YFB3812601)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51925401)the Young Elite Scientists Sponsorship Program by CAST, China (No. 2022QNRC001)。
文摘Machine learning-assisted methods for rapid and accurate prediction of temperature field,mushy zone,and grain size were proposed for the heating−cooling combined mold(HCCM)horizontal continuous casting of C70250 alloy plates.First,finite element simulations of casting processes were carried out with various parameters to build a dataset.Subsequently,different machine learning algorithms were employed to achieve high precision in predicting temperature fields,mushy zone locations,mushy zone inclination angle,and billet grain size.Finally,the process parameters were quickly optimized using a strategy consisting of random generation,prediction,and screening,allowing the mushy zone to be controlled to the desired target.The optimized parameters are 1234℃for heating mold temperature,47 mm/min for casting speed,and 10 L/min for cooling water flow rate.The optimized mushy zone is located in the middle of the second heat insulation section and has an inclination angle of roughly 7°.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China[grant number 2022YFE0106800]an Innovation Group Project of the Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)[grant number 311024001]+3 种基金a project supported by the Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)[grant number SML2023SP209]a Research Council of Norway funded project(MAPARC)[grant number 328943]a Nansen Center´s basic institutional funding[grant number 342624]the high-performance computing support from the School of Atmospheric Science at Sun Yat-sen University。
文摘Current shipping,tourism,and resource development requirements call for more accurate predictions of the Arctic sea-ice concentration(SIC).However,due to the complex physical processes involved,predicting the spatiotemporal distribution of Arctic SIC is more challenging than predicting its total extent.In this study,spatiotemporal prediction models for monthly Arctic SIC at 1-to 3-month leads are developed based on U-Net-an effective convolutional deep-learning approach.Based on explicit Arctic sea-ice-atmosphere interactions,11 variables associated with Arctic sea-ice variations are selected as predictors,including observed Arctic SIC,atmospheric,oceanic,and heat flux variables at 1-to 3-month leads.The prediction skills for the monthly Arctic SIC of the test set(from January 2018 to December 2022)are evaluated by examining the mean absolute error(MAE)and binary accuracy(BA).Results showed that the U-Net model had lower MAE and higher BA for Arctic SIC compared to two dynamic climate prediction systems(CFSv2 and NorCPM).By analyzing the relative importance of each predictor,the prediction accuracy relies more on the SIC at the 1-month lead,but on the surface net solar radiation flux at 2-to 3-month leads.However,dynamic models show limited prediction skills for surface net solar radiation flux and other physical processes,especially in autumn.Therefore,the U-Net model can be used to capture the connections among these key physical processes associated with Arctic sea ice and thus offers a significant advantage in predicting Arctic SIC.
基金National Key Research and Development Program of China,No.2023YFC3006704National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.42171047CAS-CSIRO Partnership Joint Project of 2024,No.177GJHZ2023097MI。
文摘Accurate prediction of flood events is important for flood control and risk management.Machine learning techniques contributed greatly to advances in flood predictions,and existing studies mainly focused on predicting flood resource variables using single or hybrid machine learning techniques.However,class-based flood predictions have rarely been investigated,which can aid in quickly diagnosing comprehensive flood characteristics and proposing targeted management strategies.This study proposed a prediction approach of flood regime metrics and event classes coupling machine learning algorithms with clustering-deduced membership degrees.Five algorithms were adopted for this exploration.Results showed that the class membership degrees accurately determined event classes with class hit rates up to 100%,compared with the four classes clustered from nine regime metrics.The nonlinear algorithms(Multiple Linear Regression,Random Forest,and least squares-Support Vector Machine)outperformed the linear techniques(Multiple Linear Regression and Stepwise Regression)in predicting flood regime metrics.The proposed approach well predicted flood event classes with average class hit rates of 66.0%-85.4%and 47.2%-76.0%in calibration and validation periods,respectively,particularly for the slow and late flood events.The predictive capability of the proposed prediction approach for flood regime metrics and classes was considerably stronger than that of hydrological modeling approach.
文摘The integration of machine learning(ML)technology with Internet of Things(IoT)systems produces essential changes in healthcare operations.Healthcare personnel can track patients around the clock thanks to healthcare IoT(H-IoT)technology,which also provides proactive statistical findings and precise medical diagnoses that enhance healthcare performance.This study examines how ML might support IoT-based health care systems,namely in the areas of prognostic systems,disease detection,patient tracking,and healthcare operations control.The study looks at the benefits and drawbacks of several machine learning techniques for H-IoT applications.It also examines the fundamental problems,such as data security and cyberthreats,as well as the high processing demands that these systems face.Alongside this,the essay discusses the advantages of all the technologies,including machine learning,deep learning,and the Internet of Things,as well as the significant difficulties and problems that arise when integrating the technology into healthcare forecasts.
基金Supported by the National Defense Basic Scientific Research Program of China.
文摘Amphibious vehicles are more prone to attitude instability compared to ships,making it crucial to develop effective methods for monitoring instability risks.However,large inclination events,which can lead to instability,occur frequently in both experimental and operational data.This infrequency causes events to be overlooked by existing prediction models,which lack the precision to accurately predict inclination attitudes in amphibious vehicles.To address this gap in predicting attitudes near extreme inclination points,this study introduces a novel loss function,termed generalized extreme value loss.Subsequently,a deep learning model for improved waterborne attitude prediction,termed iInformer,was developed using a Transformer-based approach.During the embedding phase,a text prototype is created based on the vehicle’s operation log data is constructed to help the model better understand the vehicle’s operating environment.Data segmentation techniques are used to highlight local data variation features.Furthermore,to mitigate issues related to poor convergence and slow training speeds caused by the extreme value loss function,a teacher forcing mechanism is integrated into the model,enhancing its convergence capabilities.Experimental results validate the effectiveness of the proposed method,demonstrating its ability to handle data imbalance challenges.Specifically,the model achieves over a 60%improvement in root mean square error under extreme value conditions,with significant improvements observed across additional metrics.
基金supported by the General Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52274326)the China Baowu Low Carbon Metallurgy Innovation Foundation(No.BWLCF202109)the Seventh Batch of Ten Thousand Talents Plan of China(No.ZX20220553).
文摘Sinter is the core raw material for blast furnaces.Flue pressure,which is an important state parameter,affects sinter quality.In this paper,flue pressure prediction and optimization were studied based on the shapley additive explanation(SHAP)to predict the flue pressure and take targeted adjustment measures.First,the sintering process data were collected and processed.A flue pressure prediction model was then constructed after comparing different feature selection methods and model algorithms using SHAP+extremely random-ized trees(ET).The prediction accuracy of the model within the error range of±0.25 kPa was 92.63%.SHAP analysis was employed to improve the interpretability of the prediction model.The effects of various sintering operation parameters on flue pressure,the relation-ship between the numerical range of key operation parameters and flue pressure,the effect of operation parameter combinations on flue pressure,and the prediction process of the flue pressure prediction model on a single sample were analyzed.A flue pressure optimization module was also constructed and analyzed when the prediction satisfied the judgment conditions.The operating parameter combination was then pushed.The flue pressure was increased by 5.87%during the verification process,achieving a good optimization effect.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(51767017)the Basic Research Innovation Group Project of Gansu Province(18JR3RA133)the Industrial Support and Guidance Project of Universities in Gansu Province(2022CYZC-22).
文摘Photovoltaic (PV) modules, as essential components of solar power generation systems, significantly influence unitpower generation costs.The service life of these modules directly affects these costs. Over time, the performanceof PV modules gradually declines due to internal degradation and external environmental factors.This cumulativedegradation impacts the overall reliability of photovoltaic power generation. This study addresses the complexdegradation process of PV modules by developing a two-stage Wiener process model. This approach accountsfor the distinct phases of degradation resulting from module aging and environmental influences. A powerdegradation model based on the two-stage Wiener process is constructed to describe individual differences inmodule degradation processes. To estimate the model parameters, a combination of the Expectation-Maximization(EM) algorithm and the Bayesian method is employed. Furthermore, the Schwarz Information Criterion (SIC) isutilized to identify critical change points in PV module degradation trajectories. To validate the universality andeffectiveness of the proposed method, a comparative analysis is conducted against other established life predictiontechniques for PV modules.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(Project approval number 82201825).
文摘Objective:To compare the clinical efficacy of mifepristone-misoprostol medical management versus surgical curettage for first-trimester missed miscarriage,and to establish evidence-based sonographic cutoff values predictive of incomplete abortion requiring surgical intervention.Methods:We retrospectively analyzed a cohort of 702 women diagnosed with first-trimester missed miscarriage between January 2020 and May 2023.Demographic characteristics and ultrasound parameters were systematically recorded.Receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve analysis was performed to establish optimal sonographic cutoff values for predicting incomplete abortion requiring surgical intervention.Results:146 patients received medical treatment(mifepristone and misoprostol)and 556 underwent surgical curettage.At the 1-month follow-up,the medical group showed significantly greater endometrial thickness and longer postoperative bleeding duration than the surgical group(P<0.05).The menstrual volume reduction rate(23.56%)was significantly lower in the medical group than in the surgical group.The incomplete abortion rate was higher in the medical group(17.12%,25/146)than in the surgical group(2.88%,16/556).Among the medical group,14 patients(9.59%)required curettage due to incomplete abortion,while 11 cases resolved spontaneously after prolonged medication.ROC curve analysis identified two cut-off values indicating the need for surgical intervention:endometrial thickness>1.21 cm at 24 h post-medical abortion,and residual mass diameter>0.95 cm at 7 days post-medical abortion.Conclusions:Medical management of first-trimester missed miscarriage using mifepristone-misoprostol demonstrates comparable efficacy to surgical curettage.An endometrial thickness>1.21 cm at 24 h or residual tissue diameter>0.95 cm at 7 days post-medical abortion should prompt consideration of incomplete abortion.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Founion of China(U2241285).
文摘Accurate and efficient prediction of the distribution of surface loads on buildings subjected to explosive effects is crucial for rapidly calculating structural dynamic responses,establishing effective protective measures,and designing civil defense engineering solutions.Current state-of-the-art methods face several issues:Experimental research is difficult and costly to implement,theoretical research is limited to simple geometries and lacks precision,and direct simulations require substantial computational resources.To address these challenges,this paper presents a data-driven method for predicting blast loads on building surfaces.This approach increases both the accuracy and computational efficiency of load predictions when the geometry of the building changes while the explosive yield remains constant,significantly improving its applicability in complex scenarios.This study introduces an innovative encoder-decoder graph neural network model named BlastGraphNet,which uses a message-passing mechanism to predict the overpressure and impulse load distributions on buildings with conventional and complex geometries during explosive events.The model also facilitates related downstream applications,such as damage mode identification and rapid assessment of virtual city explosions.The calculation results indicate that the prediction error of the model for conventional building tests is less than 2%,and its inference speed is 3-4 orders of magnitude faster than that of state-of-the-art numerical methods.In extreme test cases involving buildings with complex geometries and building clusters,the method achieved high accuracy and excellent generalizability.The strong adaptability and generalizability of BlastGraphNet confirm that this novel method enables precise real-time prediction of blast loads and provides a new paradigm for damage assessment in protective engineering.
基金supported in part by the Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.U2468201 and 62221001ZTE Industry-University-Institute Cooperation Funds under Grant No.IA20240420002。
文摘Accurate channel state information(CSI)is crucial for 6G wireless communication systems to accommodate the growing demands of mobile broadband services.In massive multiple-input multiple-output(MIMO)systems,traditional CSI feedback approaches face challenges such as performance degradation due to feedback delay and channel aging caused by user mobility.To address these issues,we propose a novel spatio-temporal predictive network(STPNet)that jointly integrates CSI feedback and prediction modules.STPNet employs stacked Inception modules to learn the spatial correlation and temporal evolution of CSI,which captures both the local and the global spatiotemporal features.In addition,the signal-to-noise ratio(SNR)adaptive module is designed to adapt flexibly to diverse feedback channel conditions.Simulation results demonstrate that STPNet outperforms existing channel prediction methods under various channel conditions.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(32122066,32201855)STI2030—Major Projects(2023ZD04076).
文摘Phenotypic prediction is a promising strategy for accelerating plant breeding.Data from multiple sources(called multi-view data)can provide complementary information to characterize a biological object from various aspects.By integrating multi-view information into phenotypic prediction,a multi-view best linear unbiased prediction(MVBLUP)method is proposed in this paper.To measure the importance of multiple data views,the differential evolution algorithm with an early stopping mechanism is used,by which we obtain a multi-view kinship matrix and then incorporate it into the BLUP model for phenotypic prediction.To further illustrate the characteristics of MVBLUP,we perform the empirical experiments on four multi-view datasets in different crops.Compared to the single-view method,the prediction accuracy of the MVBLUP method has improved by 0.038–0.201 on average.The results demonstrate that the MVBLUP is an effective integrative prediction method for multi-view data.
基金the funding support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.52308340)Chongqing Talent Innovation and Entrepreneurship Demonstration Team Project(Grant No.cstc2024ycjh-bgzxm0012)the Science and Technology Projects supported by China Coal Technology and Engineering Chongqing Design and Research Institute(Group)Co.,Ltd..(Grant No.H20230317)。
文摘Influenced by complex external factors,the displacement-time curve of reservoir landslides demonstrates both short-term and long-term diversity and dynamic complexity.It is difficult for existing methods,including Regression models and Neural network models,to perform multi-characteristic coupled displacement prediction because they fail to consider landslide creep characteristics.This paper integrates the creep characteristics of landslides with non-linear intelligent algorithms and proposes a dynamic intelligent landslide displacement prediction method based on a combination of the Biological Growth model(BG),Convolutional Neural Network(CNN),and Long ShortTerm Memory Network(LSTM).This prediction approach improves three different biological growth models,thereby effectively extracting landslide creep characteristic parameters.Simultaneously,it integrates external factors(rainfall and reservoir water level)to construct an internal and external comprehensive dataset for data augmentation,which is input into the improved CNN-LSTM model.Thereafter,harnessing the robust feature extraction capabilities and spatial translation invariance of CNN,the model autonomously captures short-term local fluctuation characteristics of landslide displacement,and combines LSTM's efficient handling of long-term nonlinear temporal data to improve prediction performance.An evaluation of the Liangshuijing landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area indicates that BG-CNN-LSTM exhibits high prediction accuracy,excellent generalization capabilities when dealing with various types of landslides.The research provides an innovative approach to achieving the whole-process,realtime,high-precision displacement predictions for multicharacteristic coupled landslides.
基金sponsored by the National Natural Science Foun-dation of China(Grant No.42330111).
文摘In this article,our nonlinear theory and technology for reducing the uncertainties of high-impact ocean‒atmosphere event predictions,with the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP)method as its core,are reviewed,and the“spring predictability barrier”problem for El Nino‒Southern Oscillation events and targeted observation issues for tropical cyclone forecasts are taken as two representative examples.Nonlinear theory reveals that initial errors of particular spatial structures,environmental conditions,and nonlinear processes contribute to significant prediction errors,whereas nonlinear technology provides a pioneering approach for reducing observational and forecast errors via targeted observations through the application of the CNOP method.Follow-up research further validates the scientific rigor of the theory in revealing the nonlinear mechanism of significant prediction errors,and relevant practical field campaigns for targeted observations verify the effectiveness of the technology in reducing prediction uncertainties.The CNOP method has achieved international recognition;furthermore,its applications further extend to ensemble forecasts for weather and climate and further enrich the nonlinear technology for reducing prediction uncertainties.It is expected that this nonlinear theory and technology will play a considerably important role in reducing prediction uncertainties for high-impact weather and climate events.
基金funded by the project supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Heilongjiang Provincial(Grant Number LH2023F033)the Science and Technology Innovation Talent Project of Harbin(Grant Number 2022CXRCCG006).
文摘Stock price prediction is a typical complex time series prediction problem characterized by dynamics,nonlinearity,and complexity.This paper introduces a generative adversarial network model that incorporates an attention mechanism(GAN-LSTM-Attention)to improve the accuracy of stock price prediction.Firstly,the generator of this model combines the Long and Short-Term Memory Network(LSTM),the Attention Mechanism and,the Fully-Connected Layer,focusing on generating the predicted stock price.The discriminator combines the Convolutional Neural Network(CNN)and the Fully-Connected Layer to discriminate between real stock prices and generated stock prices.Secondly,to evaluate the practical application ability and generalization ability of the GAN-LSTM-Attention model,four representative stocks in the United States of America(USA)stock market,namely,Standard&Poor’s 500 Index stock,Apple Incorporatedstock,AdvancedMicroDevices Incorporatedstock,and Google Incorporated stock were selected for prediction experiments,and the prediction performance was comprehensively evaluated by using the three evaluation metrics,namely,mean absolute error(MAE),root mean square error(RMSE),and coefficient of determination(R2).Finally,the specific effects of the attention mechanism,convolutional layer,and fully-connected layer on the prediction performance of the model are systematically analyzed through ablation study.The results of experiment show that the GAN-LSTM-Attention model exhibits excellent performance and robustness in stock price prediction.
基金supported by the Science and Technology Project of Jiangsu Coastal Power Infrastructure Intelligent Engineering Research Center“Photovoltaic Power Prediction System Driven by Deep Learning and Multi-Source Data Fusion”(F2024-5044).
文摘Harnessing solar power is essential for addressing the dual challenges of global warming and the depletion of traditional energy sources.However,the fluctuations and intermittency of photovoltaic(PV)power pose challenges for its extensive incorporation into power grids.Thus,enhancing the precision of PV power prediction is particularly important.Although existing studies have made progress in short-term prediction,issues persist,particularly in the underutilization of temporal features and the neglect of correlations between satellite cloud images and PV power data.These factors hinder improvements in PV power prediction performance.To overcome these challenges,this paper proposes a novel PV power prediction method based on multi-stage temporal feature learning.First,the improved LSTMand SA-ConvLSTMare employed to extract the temporal feature of PV power and the spatial-temporal feature of satellite cloud images,respectively.Subsequently,a novel hybrid attention mechanism is proposed to identify the interplay between the two modalities,enhancing the capacity to focus on the most relevant features.Finally,theTransformermodel is applied to further capture the short-termtemporal patterns and long-term dependencies within multi-modal feature information.The paper also compares the proposed method with various competitive methods.The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms the competitive methods in terms of accuracy and reliability in short-term PV power prediction.
基金supported by a major project of the Zhejiang Natural Science Foundation(LD21G030001).
文摘Objective The Asia-Pacific region has a high chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(COPD)burden,but studies on its trends are limited.Using the Global Burden of Disease(GBD)2019 data,we analyzed COPD trends in 36 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019 and predicted future incidence trends through 2034.Methods COPD data by age and sex from the GBD 2019 database were analyzed for incidence,prevalence,mortality,and disability-adjusted life years(DALY)rates from 1990 to 2019.Joinpoint regression identified significant annual trends,and age-standardized incidence rates were predicted through 2034 using age-period-cohort models.Results The incidence,prevalence,mortality,and disease burden of COPD have been decreasing,and the incidence rates will continue to decrease or remain stable until 2034 in most selected countries and territories,except for a few Southeastern Asian countries.The Lao People’s Democratic Republic and Vietnam are projected to experience an increase in COPD incidence from 165.3 per 100,000 in 2019 to 177 per 100,000 in 2034 and from 179.9 per 100,000 in 2019 to 192.5 per 100,000 in 2034,respectively.Older males had a higher incidence than any other sex or age group.The sex gap in incidence rates continues to widen,though it is smaller and less significant in the younger age group than in those in the older one.Conclusion COPD rates are expected to decline until 2034 but remain a health risk,especially in countries with rising rates.Urgent action on tobacco control,air pollution,and public education is needed.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.U20A20182.
文摘As an effective strategy to address urban traffic congestion,traffic flow prediction has gained attention from Federated-Learning(FL)researchers due FL’s ability to preserving data privacy.However,existing methods face challenges:some are too simplistic to capture complex traffic patterns effectively,and others are overly complex,leading to excessive communication overhead between cloud and edge devices.Moreover,the problem of single point failure limits their robustness and reliability in real-world applications.To tackle these challenges,this paper proposes a new method,CMBA-FL,a Communication-Mitigated and Blockchain-Assisted Federated Learning model.First,CMBA-FL improves the client model’s ability to capture temporal traffic patterns by employing the Encoder-Decoder framework for each edge device.Second,to reduce the communication overhead during federated learning,we introduce a verification method based on parameter update consistency,avoiding unnecessary parameter updates.Third,to mitigate the risk of a single point of failure,we integrate consensus mechanisms from blockchain technology.To validate the effectiveness of CMBA-FL,we assess its performance on two widely used traffic datasets.Our experimental results show that CMBA-FL reduces prediction error by 11.46%,significantly lowers communication overhead,and improves security.
