To represent model uncertainties more comprehensively,a stochastically perturbed parameterization(SPP)scheme consisting of temporally and spatially varying perturbations of 18 parameters in the microphysics,convection...To represent model uncertainties more comprehensively,a stochastically perturbed parameterization(SPP)scheme consisting of temporally and spatially varying perturbations of 18 parameters in the microphysics,convection,boundary layer,and surface layer parameterization schemes,as well as the stochastically perturbed parameterization tendencies(SPPT)scheme,and the stochastic kinetic energy backscatter(SKEB)scheme,is applied in the Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction Enhanced System-Regional Ensemble Prediction System(GRAPES-REPS)to evaluate and compare the general performance of various combinations of multiple stochastic physics schemes.Six experiments are performed for a summer month(1-30 June 2015)over China and multiple verification metrics are used.The results show that:(1)All stochastic experiments outperform the control(CTL)experiment,and all combinations of stochastic parameterization schemes perform better than the single SPP scheme,indicating that stochastic methods can effectively improve the forecast skill,and combinations of multiple stochastic parameterization schemes can better represent model uncertainties;(2)The combination of all three stochastic physics schemes(SPP,SPPT,and SKEB)outperforms any other combination of two schemes in precipitation forecasting and surface and upper-air verification to better represent the model uncertainties and improve the forecast skill;(3)Combining SKEB with SPP and/or SPPT results in a notable increase in the spread and reduction in outliers for the upper-air wind speed.SKEB directly perturbs the wind field and therefore its addition will greatly impact the upper-air wind-speed fields,and it contributes most to the improvement in spread and outliers for wind;(4)The introduction of SPP has a positive added value,and does not lead to large changes in the evolution of the kinetic energy(KE)spectrum at any wavelength;(5)The introduction of SPPT and SKEB would cause a 5%-10%and 30%-80%change in the KE of mesoscale systems,and all three stochastic schemes(SPP,SPPT,and SKEB)mainly affect the KE of mesoscale systems.This study indicates the potential of combining multiple stochastic physics schemes and lays a foundation for the future development and design of regional and global ensembles.展开更多
Optimal capacity configuration(OCC)of large-scale energy bases with multi-timescale operation characteristics presents a critical challenge.To address the problem,this study proposes an OCC approach of large-scale ene...Optimal capacity configuration(OCC)of large-scale energy bases with multi-timescale operation characteristics presents a critical challenge.To address the problem,this study proposes an OCC approach of large-scale energy bases considering external multi-stochastic scenarios and interactive multi-timescale objectives.Firstly,guided by the system theory,the nonlinear state-space description is presented for systematic analysis of a general large-scale energy base.Due to interactive multi-timescale objectives between annual and daily cumulative objectives,a nested optimization structure is established.Then,considering the external multi-stochastic scenarios caused by the variables such as wind speed,solar irradiance,electric load,and thermal load,a multi-step optimization strategy is proposed including pre-configuration in regular scenarios and re-configuration by introducing micro-incremental scenarios.The multi-step optimization strategy and nested optimization structure jointly achieve the OCC of the large-scale energy base.In each step,the nested optimization structure is executed once.Finally,while ensuring the balance between thermal supply and load demand,the imbalances between electric power supply and the load demand are eliminated,significantly showing the efficiency of the proposed OCC approach.展开更多
基金National Key Research and Development(R&D)Program of China,(Grant No.2018YFC1507405).
文摘To represent model uncertainties more comprehensively,a stochastically perturbed parameterization(SPP)scheme consisting of temporally and spatially varying perturbations of 18 parameters in the microphysics,convection,boundary layer,and surface layer parameterization schemes,as well as the stochastically perturbed parameterization tendencies(SPPT)scheme,and the stochastic kinetic energy backscatter(SKEB)scheme,is applied in the Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction Enhanced System-Regional Ensemble Prediction System(GRAPES-REPS)to evaluate and compare the general performance of various combinations of multiple stochastic physics schemes.Six experiments are performed for a summer month(1-30 June 2015)over China and multiple verification metrics are used.The results show that:(1)All stochastic experiments outperform the control(CTL)experiment,and all combinations of stochastic parameterization schemes perform better than the single SPP scheme,indicating that stochastic methods can effectively improve the forecast skill,and combinations of multiple stochastic parameterization schemes can better represent model uncertainties;(2)The combination of all three stochastic physics schemes(SPP,SPPT,and SKEB)outperforms any other combination of two schemes in precipitation forecasting and surface and upper-air verification to better represent the model uncertainties and improve the forecast skill;(3)Combining SKEB with SPP and/or SPPT results in a notable increase in the spread and reduction in outliers for the upper-air wind speed.SKEB directly perturbs the wind field and therefore its addition will greatly impact the upper-air wind-speed fields,and it contributes most to the improvement in spread and outliers for wind;(4)The introduction of SPP has a positive added value,and does not lead to large changes in the evolution of the kinetic energy(KE)spectrum at any wavelength;(5)The introduction of SPPT and SKEB would cause a 5%-10%and 30%-80%change in the KE of mesoscale systems,and all three stochastic schemes(SPP,SPPT,and SKEB)mainly affect the KE of mesoscale systems.This study indicates the potential of combining multiple stochastic physics schemes and lays a foundation for the future development and design of regional and global ensembles.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(No.2021YFE0102400)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51906064).
文摘Optimal capacity configuration(OCC)of large-scale energy bases with multi-timescale operation characteristics presents a critical challenge.To address the problem,this study proposes an OCC approach of large-scale energy bases considering external multi-stochastic scenarios and interactive multi-timescale objectives.Firstly,guided by the system theory,the nonlinear state-space description is presented for systematic analysis of a general large-scale energy base.Due to interactive multi-timescale objectives between annual and daily cumulative objectives,a nested optimization structure is established.Then,considering the external multi-stochastic scenarios caused by the variables such as wind speed,solar irradiance,electric load,and thermal load,a multi-step optimization strategy is proposed including pre-configuration in regular scenarios and re-configuration by introducing micro-incremental scenarios.The multi-step optimization strategy and nested optimization structure jointly achieve the OCC of the large-scale energy base.In each step,the nested optimization structure is executed once.Finally,while ensuring the balance between thermal supply and load demand,the imbalances between electric power supply and the load demand are eliminated,significantly showing the efficiency of the proposed OCC approach.
