Since the initiation of the subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction project by the World Meteorological Organization,the accuracy of model forecasts has improved notably.However,substantial discrepancies have been observed...Since the initiation of the subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction project by the World Meteorological Organization,the accuracy of model forecasts has improved notably.However,substantial discrepancies have been observed among forecast results produced by different ensemble members when applied to South China.To enhance the accuracy of sub-seasonal forecasts in this region,it is essential to develop new methods that can effectively leverage multiple predictive models.This study introduces a weighted ensemble forecasting method based on online learning to improve forecast accuracy.We utilized ensemble forecasts from three models:the Integrated Forecasting System model from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts,the Climate Forecast System Version 2 model from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction,and the Beijing Climate Center-Climate Prediction System version 3 model from the China Meteorological Administration.The ensemble weights are trained using an online learning approach.The results indicate that the forecasts obtained through online learning outperform those of the original dynamical models.Compared to the simple ensemble results of the three models,the weighted ensemble model showed a stronger capability to capture temperature and precipitation patterns in South China.Therefore,this method has the potential to improve the accuracy of sub-seasonal forecasts in this region.展开更多
Wind speed is a crucial parameter affecting wind energy utilization.However,its volatility leads to time-varying power output.Herein,a novel Seq2Seq model integrating deep learning,data denoising,and a shape-aware los...Wind speed is a crucial parameter affecting wind energy utilization.However,its volatility leads to time-varying power output.Herein,a novel Seq2Seq model integrating deep learning,data denoising,and a shape-aware loss function is proposed for accurate multistep wind speed forecasting.In this model,the wind speed data is first denoised using the maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform.Next,an encoder-decoder network based on a temporal convolutional network,bidirectional gated recurrent unit,and multihead self-attention is employed for forecasting.Additionally,to enhance the ability of the model to identify temporal dynamics,a shape-aware loss function,ITILDE-Q,is employed in the model.To verify the effectiveness of the proposed model,a comparative experiment and an ablation experiment were conducted using three datasets of measured wind speeds.Three error metrics and a similarity metric were adopted for comprehensive evaluation.The experimental results showed that the proposed model consistently outperforms benchmark models in all tested forecasting scenarios,with particularly pronounced differences in performance over longer forecast horizons.Furthermore,the synergistic interaction of the three key components contributes to the extraordinary performance of the proposed model.展开更多
This study presents a comprehensive evaluation of tropical cyclone(TC)forecast performance in the western North Pacific from 2013 to 2022,based on operational forecasts issued by the China Meteorological Administratio...This study presents a comprehensive evaluation of tropical cyclone(TC)forecast performance in the western North Pacific from 2013 to 2022,based on operational forecasts issued by the China Meteorological Administration.The analysis reveals systematic improvements in both track and intensity forecasts over the decade,with distinct error characteristics observed across various forecast parameters.Track forecast errors have steadily decreased,particularly for longer lead times,while error magnitudes have increased with longer forecast lead times.Intensity forecasts show similar progressive enhancements,with maximum sustained wind speed errors decreasing by 0.26 m/s per year for 120 h forecasts.The study also identifies several key patterns in forecast performance:typhoon-grade or stronger TCs exhibit smaller track errors than week or weaker systems;intensity forecasts systematically overestimate weaker TCs while underestimating stronger systems;and spatial error distributions show greater track inaccuracies near landmasses and regional intensity biases.These findings highlight both the significant advances in TC forecasting capability achieved through improved modeling and observational systems,and the remaining challenges in predicting TC changes and landfall behavior,providing valuable benchmarks for future forecast system development.展开更多
Quasi-periodic solutions with multiple base frequencies exhibit the feature of 2π-periodicity with respect to each of the hyper-time variables.However,it remains a challenge work,due to the lack of effective solution...Quasi-periodic solutions with multiple base frequencies exhibit the feature of 2π-periodicity with respect to each of the hyper-time variables.However,it remains a challenge work,due to the lack of effective solution methods,to solve and track the quasi-periodic solutions with multiple base frequencies until now.In this work,a multi-steps variable-coefficient formulation is proposed,which provides a unified framework to enable either harmonic balance method or collocation method or finite difference method to solve quasi-periodic solutions with multiple base frequencies.For this purpose,a method of alternating U and S domain is also developed to efficiently evaluate the nonlinear force terms.Furthermore,a new robust phase condition is presented for all of the three methods to make them track the quasi-periodic solutions with prior unknown multiple base frequencies,while the stability of the quasi-periodic solutions is assessed by mean of Lyapunov exponents.The feasibility of the constructed methods under the above framework is verified by application to three nonlinear systems.展开更多
The solar cycle(SC),a phenomenon caused by the quasi-periodic regular activities in the Sun,occurs approximately every 11 years.Intense solar activity can disrupt the Earth’s ionosphere,affecting communication and na...The solar cycle(SC),a phenomenon caused by the quasi-periodic regular activities in the Sun,occurs approximately every 11 years.Intense solar activity can disrupt the Earth’s ionosphere,affecting communication and navigation systems.Consequently,accurately predicting the intensity of the SC holds great significance,but predicting the SC involves a long-term time series,and many existing time series forecasting methods have fallen short in terms of accuracy and efficiency.The Time-series Dense Encoder model is a deep learning solution tailored for long time series prediction.Based on a multi-layer perceptron structure,it outperforms the best previously existing models in accuracy,while being efficiently trainable on general datasets.We propose a method based on this model for SC forecasting.Using a trained model,we predict the test set from SC 19 to SC 25 with an average mean absolute percentage error of 32.02,root mean square error of 30.3,mean absolute error of 23.32,and R^(2)(coefficient of determination)of 0.76,outperforming other deep learning models in terms of accuracy and training efficiency on sunspot number datasets.Subsequently,we use it to predict the peaks of SC 25 and SC 26.For SC 25,the peak time has ended,but a stronger peak is predicted for SC 26,of 199.3,within a range of 170.8-221.9,projected to occur during April 2034.展开更多
The dissolution of iron from the cathode and electrode/electrolyte interface(EEI)during long cycles significantly accelerates the aging process of LiFePO_(4)(LFP)/graphite batteries;there is a lack of systematic under...The dissolution of iron from the cathode and electrode/electrolyte interface(EEI)during long cycles significantly accelerates the aging process of LiFePO_(4)(LFP)/graphite batteries;there is a lack of systematic understanding of the spatial distribution of the EEI interface layer and the dissolve of Fe ions,especially in terms of the mechanism of the cathode-electrolyte interphase(CEI),solid electrolyte interphase(SEI),and iron dissolution.In this study,aged cells were subjected to continuous activation with constant current and multi-step segmented indirect activation(IA)and analyzed for capacity fade,impedance growth,and active Li^(+)mass loss at the EEI and nanoscale levels.The interaction between dissolved Fe^(2+)and the EEI in LFP/graphite pouch batteries was proposed and verified.The findings indicate that during IA process,the electric field facilitates the migration of solvated ions toward the electrodes,while simultaneously inhibiting the formation of organic species such as ROCO_(2)Li.The SEI primarily consists of a mixture of organic and inorganic small molecules,forming a continuous and uniform film on the electrode surface.This study demonstrates that IA favors the formation of a uniform EEI and offers constructive insights for advancing accelerated lifetime prediction strategies in lithium-ion batteries.展开更多
Accurate short-term electricity price forecasts are essential for market participants to optimize bidding strategies,hedge risk and plan generation schedules.By leveraging advanced data analytics and machine learning ...Accurate short-term electricity price forecasts are essential for market participants to optimize bidding strategies,hedge risk and plan generation schedules.By leveraging advanced data analytics and machine learning methods,accurate and reliable price forecasts can be achieved.This study forecasts day-ahead prices in Türkiye’s electricity market using eXtreme Gradient Boosting(XGBoost).We benchmark XGBoost against four alternatives—Support Vector Machines(SVM),Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM),Random Forest(RF),and Gradient Boosting(GBM)—using 8760 hourly observations from 2023 provided by Energy Exchange Istanbul(EXIST).All models were trained on an identical chronological 80/20 train–test split,with hyperparameters tuned via 5-fold cross-validation on the training set.XGBoost achieved the best performance(Mean Absolute Error(MAE)=144.8 TRY/MWh,Root Mean Square Error(RMSE)=201.8 TRY/MWh,coefficient of determination(R^(2))=0.923)while training in 94 s.To enhance interpretability and identify key drivers,we employed Shapley Additive Explanations(SHAP),which highlighted a strong association between higher prices and increased natural-gas-based generation.The results provide a clear performance benchmark and practical guidance for selecting forecasting approaches in day-ahead electricity markets.展开更多
With the rapid proliferation of electric vehicles,their charging loads pose new challenges to power grid stability and operational efficiency.To address this,this study employs a Monte Carlo simulation model to analyz...With the rapid proliferation of electric vehicles,their charging loads pose new challenges to power grid stability and operational efficiency.To address this,this study employs a Monte Carlo simulation model to analyze the charging load characteristics of six battery electric vehicle categories in Hebei Province,leveraging multi-source probabilistic distribution data under typical operational scenarios.The findings reveal that electric vehicle charging loads are primarily concentrated during midday and nighttime periods,with significant load fluctuations exerting substantial pressure on the grid.In response,this paper proposes strategic interventions including optimized charging infrastructure planning,time-of-use electricity pricing mechanisms,and smart charging technologies to balance grid loads.The results provide a theoretical foundation for electric vehicle load forecasting,smart grid dispatching,and vehicle-grid integration,thereby enhancing grid operational efficiency and sustainability.展开更多
Deep learning-based methods have become alternatives to traditional numerical weather prediction systems,offering faster computation and the ability to utilize large historical datasets.However,the application of deep...Deep learning-based methods have become alternatives to traditional numerical weather prediction systems,offering faster computation and the ability to utilize large historical datasets.However,the application of deep learning to medium-range regional weather forecasting with limited data remains a significant challenge.In this work,three key solutions are proposed:(1)motivated by the need to improve model performance in data-scarce regional forecasting scenarios,the authors innovatively apply semantic segmentation models,to better capture spatiotemporal features and improve prediction accuracy;(2)recognizing the challenge of overfitting and the inability of traditional noise-based data augmentation methods to effectively enhance model robustness,a novel learnable Gaussian noise mechanism is introduced that allows the model to adaptively optimize perturbations for different locations,ensuring more effective learning;and(3)to address the issue of error accumulation in autoregressive prediction,as well as the challenge of learning difficulty and the lack of intermediate data utilization in one-shot prediction,the authors propose a cascade prediction approach that effectively resolves these problems while significantly improving model forecasting performance.The method achieves a competitive result in The East China Regional AI Medium Range Weather Forecasting Competition.Ablation experiments further validate the effectiveness of each component,highlighting their contributions to enhancing prediction performance.展开更多
Marine forecasting is critical for navigation safety and disaster prevention.However,traditional ocean numerical forecasting models are often limited by substantial errors and inadequate capture of temporal-spatial fe...Marine forecasting is critical for navigation safety and disaster prevention.However,traditional ocean numerical forecasting models are often limited by substantial errors and inadequate capture of temporal-spatial features.To address the limitations,the paper proposes a TimeXer-based numerical forecast correction model optimized by an exogenous-variable attention mechanism.The model treats target forecast values as internal variables,and incorporates historical temporal-spatial data and seven-day numerical forecast results from traditional models as external variables based on the embedding strategy of TimeXer.Using a self-attention structure,the model captures correlations between exogenous variables and target sequences,explores intrinsic multi-dimensional relationships,and subsequently corrects endogenous variables with the mined exogenous features.The model’s performance is evaluated using metrics including MSE(Mean Squared Error),MAE(Mean Absolute Error),RMSE(Root Mean Square Error),MAPE(Mean Absolute Percentage Error),MSPE(Mean Square Percentage Error),and computational time,with TimeXer and PatchTST models serving as benchmarks.Experiment results show that the proposed model achieves lower errors and higher correction accuracy for both one-day and seven-day forecasts.展开更多
Sustainable energy systems will entail a change in the carbon intensity projections,which should be carried out in a proper manner to facilitate the smooth running of the grid and reduce greenhouse emissions.The prese...Sustainable energy systems will entail a change in the carbon intensity projections,which should be carried out in a proper manner to facilitate the smooth running of the grid and reduce greenhouse emissions.The present article outlines the TransCarbonNet,a novel hybrid deep learning framework with self-attention characteristics added to the bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory(Bi-LSTM)network to forecast the carbon intensity of the grid several days.The proposed temporal fusion model not only learns the local temporal interactions but also the long-term patterns of the carbon emission data;hence,it is able to give suitable forecasts over a period of seven days.TransCarbonNet takes advantage of a multi-head self-attention element to identify significant temporal connections,which means the Bi-LSTM element calculates sequential dependencies in both directions.Massive tests on two actual data sets indicate much improved results in comparison with the existing results,with mean relative errors of 15.3 percent and 12.7 percent,respectively.The framework has given explicable weights of attention that reveal critical periods that influence carbon intensity alterations,and informed decisions on the management of carbon sustainability.The effectiveness of the proposed solution has been validated in numerous cases of operations,and TransCarbonNet is established to be an effective tool when it comes to carbon-friendly optimization of the grid.展开更多
Predicting the behavior of renewable energy systems requires models capable of generating accurate forecasts from limited historical data,a challenge that becomes especially pronounced when commissioning new facil-iti...Predicting the behavior of renewable energy systems requires models capable of generating accurate forecasts from limited historical data,a challenge that becomes especially pronounced when commissioning new facil-ities where operational records are scarce.This review aims to synthesize recent progress in data-efficient deep learning approaches for addressing such“cold-start”forecasting problems.It primarily covers three interrelated domains—solar photovoltaic(PV),wind power,and electrical load forecasting—where data scarcity and operational variability are most critical,while also including representative studies on hydropower and carbon emission prediction to provide a broader systems perspective.To this end,we examined trends from over 150 predominantly peer-reviewed studies published between 2019 and mid-2025,highlighting advances in zero-shot and few-shot meta-learning frameworks that enable rapid model adaptation with minimal labeled data.Moreover,transfer learning approaches combined with spatiotemporal graph neural networks have been employed to transfer knowledge from existing energy assets to new,data-sparse environments,effectively capturing hidden dependencies among geographic features,meteorological dynamics,and grid structures.Synthetic data generation has further proven valuable for expanding training samples and mitigating overfitting in cold-start scenarios.In addition,large language models and explainable artificial intelligence(XAI)—notably conversational XAI systems—have been used to interpret and communicate complex model behaviors in accessible terms,fostering operator trust from the earliest deployment stages.By consolidating methodological advances,unresolved challenges,and open-source resources,this review provides a coherent overview of deep learning strategies that can shorten the data-sparse ramp-up period of new energy infrastructures and accelerate the transition toward resilient,low-carbon electricity grids.展开更多
Accurate multi-step PM_(2.5)(particulate matter with diameters≤2.5 um)concentration prediction is critical for humankinds’health and air populationmanagement because it could provide strong evidence for decisionmaki...Accurate multi-step PM_(2.5)(particulate matter with diameters≤2.5 um)concentration prediction is critical for humankinds’health and air populationmanagement because it could provide strong evidence for decisionmaking.However,it is very challenging due to its randomness and variability.This paper proposed a novel method based on convolutional neural network(CNN)and long-short-term memory(LSTM)with a space-shared mechanism,named space-shared CNN-LSTM(SCNN-LSTM)for multi-site dailyahead multi-step PM_(2.5)forecasting with self-historical series.The proposed SCNN-LSTM contains multi-channel inputs,each channel corresponding to one-site historical PM_(2.5)concentration series.In which,CNN and LSTM are used to extract each site’s rich hidden feature representations in a stack mode.Especially,CNN is to extract the hidden short-time gap PM_(2.5)concentration patterns;LSTM is to mine the hidden features with long-time dependency.Each channel extracted features aremerged as the comprehensive features for future multi-step PM_(2.5)concentration forecasting.Besides,the space-shared mechanism is implemented by multi-loss functions to achieve space information sharing.Therefore,the final features are the fusion of short-time gap,long-time dependency,and space information,which enables forecasting more accurately.To validate the proposed method’s effectiveness,the authors designed,trained,and compared it with various leading methods in terms of RMSE,MAE,MAPE,and R^(2)on four real-word PM_(2.5)data sets in Seoul,South Korea.The massive experiments proved that the proposed method could accurately forecast multi-site multi-step PM_(2.5)concentration only using self-historical PM_(2.5)concentration time series and running once.Specifically,the proposed method obtained averaged RMSE of 8.05,MAE of 5.04,MAPE of 23.96%,and R^(2)of 0.7 for four-site daily ahead 10-hourPM_(2.5)concentration forecasting.展开更多
Due to global energy depletion,solar energy technology has been widely used in the world.The output power of the solar energy systems is affected by solar radiation.Accurate short-term forecasting of solar radiation c...Due to global energy depletion,solar energy technology has been widely used in the world.The output power of the solar energy systems is affected by solar radiation.Accurate short-term forecasting of solar radiation can ensure the safety of photovoltaic grids and improve the utilization efficiency of the solar energy systems.In the study,a new decomposition-boosting model using artificial intelligence is proposed to realize the solar radiation multi-step prediction.The proposed model includes four parts:signal decomposition(EWT),neural network(NARX),Adaboost and ARIMA.Three real solar radiation datasets from Changde,China were used to validate the efficiency of the proposed model.To verify the robustness of the multi-step prediction model,this experiment compared nine models and made 1,3,and 5 steps ahead predictions for the time series.It is verified that the proposed model has the best performance among all models.展开更多
A new methodology for multi-step-ahead forecasting was proposed herein which combined the wavelet transform(WT), artificial neural network(ANN) and forecasting strategies based on the changing characteristics of avail...A new methodology for multi-step-ahead forecasting was proposed herein which combined the wavelet transform(WT), artificial neural network(ANN) and forecasting strategies based on the changing characteristics of available parking spaces(APS). First, several APS time series were decomposed and reconstituted by the wavelet transform. Then, using an artificial neural network, the following five strategies for multi-step-ahead time series forecasting were used to forecast the reconstructed time series: recursive strategy, direct strategy, multi-input multi-output(MIMO) strategy, DIRMO strategy(a combination of the direct and MIMO strategies), and newly proposed recursive multi-input multi-output(RECMO) strategy which is a combination of the recursive and MIMO strategies. Finally, integrating the predicted results with the reconstructed time series produced the final forecasted available parking spaces. Three findings appear to be consistently supported by the experimental results. First, applying the wavelet transform to multi-step ahead available parking spaces forecasting can effectively improve the forecasting accuracy. Second, the forecasting resulted from the DIRMO and RECMO strategies is more accurate than that of the other strategies. Finally, the RECMO strategy requires less model training time than the DIRMO strategy and consumes the least amount of training time among five forecasting strategies.展开更多
Accurately predicting environmental parameters in solar greenhouses is crucial for achieving precise environmental control.In solar greenhouses,temperature,humidity,and light intensity are crucial environmental parame...Accurately predicting environmental parameters in solar greenhouses is crucial for achieving precise environmental control.In solar greenhouses,temperature,humidity,and light intensity are crucial environmental parameters.The monitoring platform collected data on the internal environment of the solar greenhouse for one year,including temperature,humidity,and light intensity.Additionally,meteorological data,comprising outdoor temperature,outdoor humidity,and outdoor light intensity,was gathered during the same time frame.The characteristics and interrelationships among these parameters were investigated by a thorough analysis.The analysis revealed that environmental parameters in solar greenhouses displayed characteristics such as temporal variability,non-linearity,and periodicity.These parameters exhibited complex coupling relationships.Notably,these characteristics and coupling relationships exhibited pronounced seasonal variations.The multi-parameter multi-step prediction model for solar greenhouse(MPMS-SGH)was introduced,aiming to accurately predict three key greenhouse environmental parameters,and the model had certain seasonal adaptability.MPMS-SGH was structured with multiple layers,including an input layer,a preprocessing layer,a feature extraction layer,and a prediction layer.The input layer was used to generate the original sequence matrix,which included indoor temperature,indoor humidity,indoor light intensity,as well as outdoor temperature and outdoor light intensity.Then the preprocessing layer normalized,decomposed,and positionally encoded the original sequence matrix.In the feature extraction layer,the time attention mechanism and frequency attention mechanism were used to extract features from the trend component and the seasonal component,respectively.Finally,the prediction layer used a multi-layer perceptron to perform multi-step prediction of indoor environmental parameters(i.e.temperature,humidity,and light intensity).The parameter selection experiment evaluated the predictive performance of MPMS-SGH on input and output sequences of different lengths.The results indicated that with a constant output sequence length,the prediction accuracy of MPMS-SGH was firstly increased and then decreased with the increase of input sequence length.Specifically,when the input sequence length was 100,MPMS-SGH had the highest prediction accuracy,with RMSE of 0.22℃,0.28%,and 250lx for temperature,humidity,and light intensity,respectively.When the length of the input sequence remained constant,as the length of the output sequence increased,the accuracy of the model in predicting the three environmental parameters was continuously decreased.When the length of the output sequence exceeded 45,the prediction accuracy of MPMS-SGH was significantly decreased.In order to achieve the best balance between model size and performance,the input sequence length of MPMS-SGH was set to be 100,while the output sequence length was set to be 35.To assess MPMS-SGH’s performance,comparative experiments with four prediction models were conducted:SVR,STL-SVR,LSTM,and STL-LSTM.The results demonstrated that MPMS-SGH surpassed all other models,achieving RMSE of 0.15℃for temperature,0.38%for humidity,and 260lx for light intensity.Additionally,sequence decomposition can contribute to enhancing MPMS-SGH’s prediction performance.To further evaluate MPMS-SGH’s capabilities,its prediction accuracy was tested across different seasons for greenhouse environmental parameters.MPMS-SGH had the highest accuracy in predicting indoor temperature and the lowest accuracy in predicting humidity.And the accuracy of MPMS-SGH in predicting environmental parameters of the solar greenhouse fluctuated with seasons.MPMS-SGH had the highest accuracy in predicting the temperature inside the greenhouse on sunny days in spring(R^(2)=0.91),the highest accuracy in predicting the humidity inside the greenhouse on sunny days in winter(R^(2)=0.83),and the highest accuracy in predicting the light intensity inside the greenhouse on cloudy days in autumm(R^(2)=0.89).MPMS-SGH had the lowest accuracy in predicting three environmental parameters in a sunny summer greenhouse.展开更多
Marine heatwaves(MHWs),which can exert devastating socioeconomic and ecological impacts,have attracted much public interest in recent years.In this study,we evaluate the sub-seasonal forecast skill of MHWs based on th...Marine heatwaves(MHWs),which can exert devastating socioeconomic and ecological impacts,have attracted much public interest in recent years.In this study,we evaluate the sub-seasonal forecast skill of MHWs based on the Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology Climate Forecast System version 1.1(NUIST CFS1.1)and analyze the related physical processes.Our results show that the model can accurately forecast the occurrence of MHWs on a global scale out to a lead time of 25 days.Notably,even at lead times of 51–55 days,the forecast skill in most tropical regions,as well as in the northeastern and southeastern Pacific,is superior to both random forecasts and persistence forecasts.Accurate predictions of sea level pressure,zonal currents,and mixed-layer depth are important for MHW forecasting.Furthermore,we also conduct forecast skill assessments for two well-documented MHW events.Due to its ability to correctly forecast the changes in heat flux anomalies at a lead time of 25 days,the model can accurately forecast the strong MHW event that occurred in the South China Sea in May–October 2020.However,the forecasting results were less than optimal for the strong MHW event that occurred along the Australian west coast in January–April 2011.Although the model accurately forecasts its occurrence,the forecast of its intensity is poor.Additionally,when the lead time exceeds 10 days,forecasts of the relevant physical processes of this MHW event are also inaccurate.展开更多
Accurate short-term wind power forecast technique plays a crucial role in maintaining the safety and economic efficiency of smart grids.Although numerous studies have employed various methods to forecast wind power,th...Accurate short-term wind power forecast technique plays a crucial role in maintaining the safety and economic efficiency of smart grids.Although numerous studies have employed various methods to forecast wind power,there remains a research gap in leveraging swarm intelligence algorithms to optimize the hyperparameters of the Transformer model for wind power prediction.To improve the accuracy of short-term wind power forecast,this paper proposes a hybrid short-term wind power forecast approach named STL-IAOA-iTransformer,which is based on seasonal and trend decomposition using LOESS(STL)and iTransformer model optimized by improved arithmetic optimization algorithm(IAOA).First,to fully extract the power data features,STL is used to decompose the original data into components with less redundant information.The extracted components as well as the weather data are then input into iTransformer for short-term wind power forecast.The final predicted short-term wind power curve is obtained by combining the predicted components.To improve the model accuracy,IAOA is employed to optimize the hyperparameters of iTransformer.The proposed approach is validated using real-generation data from different seasons and different power stations inNorthwest China,and ablation experiments have been conducted.Furthermore,to validate the superiority of the proposed approach under different wind characteristics,real power generation data fromsouthwestChina are utilized for experiments.Thecomparative results with the other six state-of-the-art prediction models in experiments show that the proposed model well fits the true value of generation series and achieves high prediction accuracy.展开更多
Vector winds play a crucial role in weather and climate,as well as the effective utilization of wind energy resources.However,limited research has been conducted on treating the wind field as a vector field in the eva...Vector winds play a crucial role in weather and climate,as well as the effective utilization of wind energy resources.However,limited research has been conducted on treating the wind field as a vector field in the evaluation of numerical weather prediction models.In this study,the authors treat vector winds as a whole by employing a vector field evaluation method,and evaluate the mesoscale model of the China Meteorological Administration(CMA-MESO)and ECMWF forecast,with reference to ERA5 reanalysis,in terms of multiple aspects of vector winds over eastern China in 2022.The results show that the ECMWF forecast is superior to CMA-MESO in predicting the spatial distribution and intensity of 10-m vector winds.Both models overestimate the wind speed in East China,and CMA-MESO overestimates the wind speed to a greater extent.The forecasting skill of the vector wind field in both models decreases with increasing lead time.The forecasting skill of CMA-MESO fluctuates more and decreases faster than that of the ECMWF forecast.There is a significant negative correlation between the model vector wind forecasting skill and terrain height.This study provides a scientific evaluation of the local application of vector wind forecasts of the CMA-MESO model and ECMWF forecast.展开更多
Forecasting landslide deformation is challenging due to influence of various internal and external factors on the occurrence of systemic and localized heterogeneities.Despite the potential to improve landslide predict...Forecasting landslide deformation is challenging due to influence of various internal and external factors on the occurrence of systemic and localized heterogeneities.Despite the potential to improve landslide predictability,deep learning has yet to be sufficiently explored for complex deformation patterns associated with landslides and is inherently opaque.Herein,we developed a holistic landslide deformation forecasting method that considers spatiotemporal correlations of landslide deformation by integrating domain knowledge into interpretable deep learning.By spatially capturing the interconnections between multiple deformations from different observation points,our method contributes to the understanding and forecasting of landslide systematic behavior.By integrating specific domain knowledge relevant to each observation point and merging internal properties with external variables,the local heterogeneity is considered in our method,identifying deformation temporal patterns in different landslide zones.Case studies involving reservoir-induced landslides and creeping landslides demonstrated that our approach(1)enhances the accuracy of landslide deformation forecasting,(2)identifies significant contributing factors and their influence on spatiotemporal deformation characteristics,and(3)demonstrates how identifying these factors and patterns facilitates landslide forecasting.Our research offers a promising and pragmatic pathway toward a deeper understanding and forecasting of complex landslide behaviors.展开更多
基金Science and Technology Development Program of the“Taihu Light”(K20231023)CMA Numerical Weather Prediction R&D Project(TCYF2024QH007)+1 种基金“Qing Lan”Project of Jiangsu Province for C.H.LUWuxi University Research Start-up Fund for Introduced Talents(2023r037)。
文摘Since the initiation of the subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction project by the World Meteorological Organization,the accuracy of model forecasts has improved notably.However,substantial discrepancies have been observed among forecast results produced by different ensemble members when applied to South China.To enhance the accuracy of sub-seasonal forecasts in this region,it is essential to develop new methods that can effectively leverage multiple predictive models.This study introduces a weighted ensemble forecasting method based on online learning to improve forecast accuracy.We utilized ensemble forecasts from three models:the Integrated Forecasting System model from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts,the Climate Forecast System Version 2 model from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction,and the Beijing Climate Center-Climate Prediction System version 3 model from the China Meteorological Administration.The ensemble weights are trained using an online learning approach.The results indicate that the forecasts obtained through online learning outperform those of the original dynamical models.Compared to the simple ensemble results of the three models,the weighted ensemble model showed a stronger capability to capture temperature and precipitation patterns in South China.Therefore,this method has the potential to improve the accuracy of sub-seasonal forecasts in this region.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52171284)。
文摘Wind speed is a crucial parameter affecting wind energy utilization.However,its volatility leads to time-varying power output.Herein,a novel Seq2Seq model integrating deep learning,data denoising,and a shape-aware loss function is proposed for accurate multistep wind speed forecasting.In this model,the wind speed data is first denoised using the maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform.Next,an encoder-decoder network based on a temporal convolutional network,bidirectional gated recurrent unit,and multihead self-attention is employed for forecasting.Additionally,to enhance the ability of the model to identify temporal dynamics,a shape-aware loss function,ITILDE-Q,is employed in the model.To verify the effectiveness of the proposed model,a comparative experiment and an ablation experiment were conducted using three datasets of measured wind speeds.Three error metrics and a similarity metric were adopted for comprehensive evaluation.The experimental results showed that the proposed model consistently outperforms benchmark models in all tested forecasting scenarios,with particularly pronounced differences in performance over longer forecast horizons.Furthermore,the synergistic interaction of the three key components contributes to the extraordinary performance of the proposed model.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China [grant number 2023YFC3008004]。
文摘This study presents a comprehensive evaluation of tropical cyclone(TC)forecast performance in the western North Pacific from 2013 to 2022,based on operational forecasts issued by the China Meteorological Administration.The analysis reveals systematic improvements in both track and intensity forecasts over the decade,with distinct error characteristics observed across various forecast parameters.Track forecast errors have steadily decreased,particularly for longer lead times,while error magnitudes have increased with longer forecast lead times.Intensity forecasts show similar progressive enhancements,with maximum sustained wind speed errors decreasing by 0.26 m/s per year for 120 h forecasts.The study also identifies several key patterns in forecast performance:typhoon-grade or stronger TCs exhibit smaller track errors than week or weaker systems;intensity forecasts systematically overestimate weaker TCs while underestimating stronger systems;and spatial error distributions show greater track inaccuracies near landmasses and regional intensity biases.These findings highlight both the significant advances in TC forecasting capability achieved through improved modeling and observational systems,and the remaining challenges in predicting TC changes and landfall behavior,providing valuable benchmarks for future forecast system development.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.12172267 and 12302014).
文摘Quasi-periodic solutions with multiple base frequencies exhibit the feature of 2π-periodicity with respect to each of the hyper-time variables.However,it remains a challenge work,due to the lack of effective solution methods,to solve and track the quasi-periodic solutions with multiple base frequencies until now.In this work,a multi-steps variable-coefficient formulation is proposed,which provides a unified framework to enable either harmonic balance method or collocation method or finite difference method to solve quasi-periodic solutions with multiple base frequencies.For this purpose,a method of alternating U and S domain is also developed to efficiently evaluate the nonlinear force terms.Furthermore,a new robust phase condition is presented for all of the three methods to make them track the quasi-periodic solutions with prior unknown multiple base frequencies,while the stability of the quasi-periodic solutions is assessed by mean of Lyapunov exponents.The feasibility of the constructed methods under the above framework is verified by application to three nonlinear systems.
基金supported by the Academic Research Projects of Beijing Union University(ZK20202204)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(12250005,12073040,12273059,11973056,12003051,11573037,12073041,11427901,11572005,11611530679 and 12473052)+1 种基金the Strategic Priority Research Program of the China Academy of Sciences(XDB0560000,XDA15052200,XDB09040200,XDA15010700,XDB0560301,and XDA15320102)the Chinese Meridian Project(CMP).
文摘The solar cycle(SC),a phenomenon caused by the quasi-periodic regular activities in the Sun,occurs approximately every 11 years.Intense solar activity can disrupt the Earth’s ionosphere,affecting communication and navigation systems.Consequently,accurately predicting the intensity of the SC holds great significance,but predicting the SC involves a long-term time series,and many existing time series forecasting methods have fallen short in terms of accuracy and efficiency.The Time-series Dense Encoder model is a deep learning solution tailored for long time series prediction.Based on a multi-layer perceptron structure,it outperforms the best previously existing models in accuracy,while being efficiently trainable on general datasets.We propose a method based on this model for SC forecasting.Using a trained model,we predict the test set from SC 19 to SC 25 with an average mean absolute percentage error of 32.02,root mean square error of 30.3,mean absolute error of 23.32,and R^(2)(coefficient of determination)of 0.76,outperforming other deep learning models in terms of accuracy and training efficiency on sunspot number datasets.Subsequently,we use it to predict the peaks of SC 25 and SC 26.For SC 25,the peak time has ended,but a stronger peak is predicted for SC 26,of 199.3,within a range of 170.8-221.9,projected to occur during April 2034.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(2021YFB2401800)the support from Beijing Nova Program(20230484241)+2 种基金the support from the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(2024M754084)the Postdoctoral Fellowship Program of CPSF(GZB20230931)the support from Initial Energy Science&Technology Co.,Ltd(IEST)。
文摘The dissolution of iron from the cathode and electrode/electrolyte interface(EEI)during long cycles significantly accelerates the aging process of LiFePO_(4)(LFP)/graphite batteries;there is a lack of systematic understanding of the spatial distribution of the EEI interface layer and the dissolve of Fe ions,especially in terms of the mechanism of the cathode-electrolyte interphase(CEI),solid electrolyte interphase(SEI),and iron dissolution.In this study,aged cells were subjected to continuous activation with constant current and multi-step segmented indirect activation(IA)and analyzed for capacity fade,impedance growth,and active Li^(+)mass loss at the EEI and nanoscale levels.The interaction between dissolved Fe^(2+)and the EEI in LFP/graphite pouch batteries was proposed and verified.The findings indicate that during IA process,the electric field facilitates the migration of solvated ions toward the electrodes,while simultaneously inhibiting the formation of organic species such as ROCO_(2)Li.The SEI primarily consists of a mixture of organic and inorganic small molecules,forming a continuous and uniform film on the electrode surface.This study demonstrates that IA favors the formation of a uniform EEI and offers constructive insights for advancing accelerated lifetime prediction strategies in lithium-ion batteries.
文摘Accurate short-term electricity price forecasts are essential for market participants to optimize bidding strategies,hedge risk and plan generation schedules.By leveraging advanced data analytics and machine learning methods,accurate and reliable price forecasts can be achieved.This study forecasts day-ahead prices in Türkiye’s electricity market using eXtreme Gradient Boosting(XGBoost).We benchmark XGBoost against four alternatives—Support Vector Machines(SVM),Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM),Random Forest(RF),and Gradient Boosting(GBM)—using 8760 hourly observations from 2023 provided by Energy Exchange Istanbul(EXIST).All models were trained on an identical chronological 80/20 train–test split,with hyperparameters tuned via 5-fold cross-validation on the training set.XGBoost achieved the best performance(Mean Absolute Error(MAE)=144.8 TRY/MWh,Root Mean Square Error(RMSE)=201.8 TRY/MWh,coefficient of determination(R^(2))=0.923)while training in 94 s.To enhance interpretability and identify key drivers,we employed Shapley Additive Explanations(SHAP),which highlighted a strong association between higher prices and increased natural-gas-based generation.The results provide a clear performance benchmark and practical guidance for selecting forecasting approaches in day-ahead electricity markets.
基金funded by Humanities and Social Sciences of Ministry of Education Planning Fund of China,grant number 21YJA790009National Natural Science Foundation of China,grant number 72140001.
文摘With the rapid proliferation of electric vehicles,their charging loads pose new challenges to power grid stability and operational efficiency.To address this,this study employs a Monte Carlo simulation model to analyze the charging load characteristics of six battery electric vehicle categories in Hebei Province,leveraging multi-source probabilistic distribution data under typical operational scenarios.The findings reveal that electric vehicle charging loads are primarily concentrated during midday and nighttime periods,with significant load fluctuations exerting substantial pressure on the grid.In response,this paper proposes strategic interventions including optimized charging infrastructure planning,time-of-use electricity pricing mechanisms,and smart charging technologies to balance grid loads.The results provide a theoretical foundation for electric vehicle load forecasting,smart grid dispatching,and vehicle-grid integration,thereby enhancing grid operational efficiency and sustainability.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 62376217]the Young Elite Scientists Sponsorship Program by CAST[grant number 2023QNRC001]the Joint Research Project for Meteorological Capacity Improvement[grant number 24NLTSZ003]。
文摘Deep learning-based methods have become alternatives to traditional numerical weather prediction systems,offering faster computation and the ability to utilize large historical datasets.However,the application of deep learning to medium-range regional weather forecasting with limited data remains a significant challenge.In this work,three key solutions are proposed:(1)motivated by the need to improve model performance in data-scarce regional forecasting scenarios,the authors innovatively apply semantic segmentation models,to better capture spatiotemporal features and improve prediction accuracy;(2)recognizing the challenge of overfitting and the inability of traditional noise-based data augmentation methods to effectively enhance model robustness,a novel learnable Gaussian noise mechanism is introduced that allows the model to adaptively optimize perturbations for different locations,ensuring more effective learning;and(3)to address the issue of error accumulation in autoregressive prediction,as well as the challenge of learning difficulty and the lack of intermediate data utilization in one-shot prediction,the authors propose a cascade prediction approach that effectively resolves these problems while significantly improving model forecasting performance.The method achieves a competitive result in The East China Regional AI Medium Range Weather Forecasting Competition.Ablation experiments further validate the effectiveness of each component,highlighting their contributions to enhancing prediction performance.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program Project(2023YFC3107804)Planning Fund Project of Humanities and Social Sciences Research of the Ministry of Education(24YJA880097)the Graduate Education Reform Project in North China University of Technology(217051360025XN095-17)。
文摘Marine forecasting is critical for navigation safety and disaster prevention.However,traditional ocean numerical forecasting models are often limited by substantial errors and inadequate capture of temporal-spatial features.To address the limitations,the paper proposes a TimeXer-based numerical forecast correction model optimized by an exogenous-variable attention mechanism.The model treats target forecast values as internal variables,and incorporates historical temporal-spatial data and seven-day numerical forecast results from traditional models as external variables based on the embedding strategy of TimeXer.Using a self-attention structure,the model captures correlations between exogenous variables and target sequences,explores intrinsic multi-dimensional relationships,and subsequently corrects endogenous variables with the mined exogenous features.The model’s performance is evaluated using metrics including MSE(Mean Squared Error),MAE(Mean Absolute Error),RMSE(Root Mean Square Error),MAPE(Mean Absolute Percentage Error),MSPE(Mean Square Percentage Error),and computational time,with TimeXer and PatchTST models serving as benchmarks.Experiment results show that the proposed model achieves lower errors and higher correction accuracy for both one-day and seven-day forecasts.
基金funded by the Deanship of Scientific Research and Libraries at Princess Nourah bint Abdulrahman University,through the“Nafea”Program,Grant No.(NP-45-082).
文摘Sustainable energy systems will entail a change in the carbon intensity projections,which should be carried out in a proper manner to facilitate the smooth running of the grid and reduce greenhouse emissions.The present article outlines the TransCarbonNet,a novel hybrid deep learning framework with self-attention characteristics added to the bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory(Bi-LSTM)network to forecast the carbon intensity of the grid several days.The proposed temporal fusion model not only learns the local temporal interactions but also the long-term patterns of the carbon emission data;hence,it is able to give suitable forecasts over a period of seven days.TransCarbonNet takes advantage of a multi-head self-attention element to identify significant temporal connections,which means the Bi-LSTM element calculates sequential dependencies in both directions.Massive tests on two actual data sets indicate much improved results in comparison with the existing results,with mean relative errors of 15.3 percent and 12.7 percent,respectively.The framework has given explicable weights of attention that reveal critical periods that influence carbon intensity alterations,and informed decisions on the management of carbon sustainability.The effectiveness of the proposed solution has been validated in numerous cases of operations,and TransCarbonNet is established to be an effective tool when it comes to carbon-friendly optimization of the grid.
文摘Predicting the behavior of renewable energy systems requires models capable of generating accurate forecasts from limited historical data,a challenge that becomes especially pronounced when commissioning new facil-ities where operational records are scarce.This review aims to synthesize recent progress in data-efficient deep learning approaches for addressing such“cold-start”forecasting problems.It primarily covers three interrelated domains—solar photovoltaic(PV),wind power,and electrical load forecasting—where data scarcity and operational variability are most critical,while also including representative studies on hydropower and carbon emission prediction to provide a broader systems perspective.To this end,we examined trends from over 150 predominantly peer-reviewed studies published between 2019 and mid-2025,highlighting advances in zero-shot and few-shot meta-learning frameworks that enable rapid model adaptation with minimal labeled data.Moreover,transfer learning approaches combined with spatiotemporal graph neural networks have been employed to transfer knowledge from existing energy assets to new,data-sparse environments,effectively capturing hidden dependencies among geographic features,meteorological dynamics,and grid structures.Synthetic data generation has further proven valuable for expanding training samples and mitigating overfitting in cold-start scenarios.In addition,large language models and explainable artificial intelligence(XAI)—notably conversational XAI systems—have been used to interpret and communicate complex model behaviors in accessible terms,fostering operator trust from the earliest deployment stages.By consolidating methodological advances,unresolved challenges,and open-source resources,this review provides a coherent overview of deep learning strategies that can shorten the data-sparse ramp-up period of new energy infrastructures and accelerate the transition toward resilient,low-carbon electricity grids.
基金This work was supported by a Research Grant from Pukyong National University(2021).
文摘Accurate multi-step PM_(2.5)(particulate matter with diameters≤2.5 um)concentration prediction is critical for humankinds’health and air populationmanagement because it could provide strong evidence for decisionmaking.However,it is very challenging due to its randomness and variability.This paper proposed a novel method based on convolutional neural network(CNN)and long-short-term memory(LSTM)with a space-shared mechanism,named space-shared CNN-LSTM(SCNN-LSTM)for multi-site dailyahead multi-step PM_(2.5)forecasting with self-historical series.The proposed SCNN-LSTM contains multi-channel inputs,each channel corresponding to one-site historical PM_(2.5)concentration series.In which,CNN and LSTM are used to extract each site’s rich hidden feature representations in a stack mode.Especially,CNN is to extract the hidden short-time gap PM_(2.5)concentration patterns;LSTM is to mine the hidden features with long-time dependency.Each channel extracted features aremerged as the comprehensive features for future multi-step PM_(2.5)concentration forecasting.Besides,the space-shared mechanism is implemented by multi-loss functions to achieve space information sharing.Therefore,the final features are the fusion of short-time gap,long-time dependency,and space information,which enables forecasting more accurately.To validate the proposed method’s effectiveness,the authors designed,trained,and compared it with various leading methods in terms of RMSE,MAE,MAPE,and R^(2)on four real-word PM_(2.5)data sets in Seoul,South Korea.The massive experiments proved that the proposed method could accurately forecast multi-site multi-step PM_(2.5)concentration only using self-historical PM_(2.5)concentration time series and running once.Specifically,the proposed method obtained averaged RMSE of 8.05,MAE of 5.04,MAPE of 23.96%,and R^(2)of 0.7 for four-site daily ahead 10-hourPM_(2.5)concentration forecasting.
基金Project(2020TJ-Q06)supported by Hunan Provincial Science&Technology Talent Support,ChinaProject(KQ1707017)supported by the Changsha Science&Technology,ChinaProject(2019CX005)supported by the Innovation Driven Project of the Central South University,China。
文摘Due to global energy depletion,solar energy technology has been widely used in the world.The output power of the solar energy systems is affected by solar radiation.Accurate short-term forecasting of solar radiation can ensure the safety of photovoltaic grids and improve the utilization efficiency of the solar energy systems.In the study,a new decomposition-boosting model using artificial intelligence is proposed to realize the solar radiation multi-step prediction.The proposed model includes four parts:signal decomposition(EWT),neural network(NARX),Adaboost and ARIMA.Three real solar radiation datasets from Changde,China were used to validate the efficiency of the proposed model.To verify the robustness of the multi-step prediction model,this experiment compared nine models and made 1,3,and 5 steps ahead predictions for the time series.It is verified that the proposed model has the best performance among all models.
基金Project(51561135003)supported by the International Cooperation and Exchange of the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(51338003)supported by the Key Project of National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘A new methodology for multi-step-ahead forecasting was proposed herein which combined the wavelet transform(WT), artificial neural network(ANN) and forecasting strategies based on the changing characteristics of available parking spaces(APS). First, several APS time series were decomposed and reconstituted by the wavelet transform. Then, using an artificial neural network, the following five strategies for multi-step-ahead time series forecasting were used to forecast the reconstructed time series: recursive strategy, direct strategy, multi-input multi-output(MIMO) strategy, DIRMO strategy(a combination of the direct and MIMO strategies), and newly proposed recursive multi-input multi-output(RECMO) strategy which is a combination of the recursive and MIMO strategies. Finally, integrating the predicted results with the reconstructed time series produced the final forecasted available parking spaces. Three findings appear to be consistently supported by the experimental results. First, applying the wavelet transform to multi-step ahead available parking spaces forecasting can effectively improve the forecasting accuracy. Second, the forecasting resulted from the DIRMO and RECMO strategies is more accurate than that of the other strategies. Finally, the RECMO strategy requires less model training time than the DIRMO strategy and consumes the least amount of training time among five forecasting strategies.
文摘Accurately predicting environmental parameters in solar greenhouses is crucial for achieving precise environmental control.In solar greenhouses,temperature,humidity,and light intensity are crucial environmental parameters.The monitoring platform collected data on the internal environment of the solar greenhouse for one year,including temperature,humidity,and light intensity.Additionally,meteorological data,comprising outdoor temperature,outdoor humidity,and outdoor light intensity,was gathered during the same time frame.The characteristics and interrelationships among these parameters were investigated by a thorough analysis.The analysis revealed that environmental parameters in solar greenhouses displayed characteristics such as temporal variability,non-linearity,and periodicity.These parameters exhibited complex coupling relationships.Notably,these characteristics and coupling relationships exhibited pronounced seasonal variations.The multi-parameter multi-step prediction model for solar greenhouse(MPMS-SGH)was introduced,aiming to accurately predict three key greenhouse environmental parameters,and the model had certain seasonal adaptability.MPMS-SGH was structured with multiple layers,including an input layer,a preprocessing layer,a feature extraction layer,and a prediction layer.The input layer was used to generate the original sequence matrix,which included indoor temperature,indoor humidity,indoor light intensity,as well as outdoor temperature and outdoor light intensity.Then the preprocessing layer normalized,decomposed,and positionally encoded the original sequence matrix.In the feature extraction layer,the time attention mechanism and frequency attention mechanism were used to extract features from the trend component and the seasonal component,respectively.Finally,the prediction layer used a multi-layer perceptron to perform multi-step prediction of indoor environmental parameters(i.e.temperature,humidity,and light intensity).The parameter selection experiment evaluated the predictive performance of MPMS-SGH on input and output sequences of different lengths.The results indicated that with a constant output sequence length,the prediction accuracy of MPMS-SGH was firstly increased and then decreased with the increase of input sequence length.Specifically,when the input sequence length was 100,MPMS-SGH had the highest prediction accuracy,with RMSE of 0.22℃,0.28%,and 250lx for temperature,humidity,and light intensity,respectively.When the length of the input sequence remained constant,as the length of the output sequence increased,the accuracy of the model in predicting the three environmental parameters was continuously decreased.When the length of the output sequence exceeded 45,the prediction accuracy of MPMS-SGH was significantly decreased.In order to achieve the best balance between model size and performance,the input sequence length of MPMS-SGH was set to be 100,while the output sequence length was set to be 35.To assess MPMS-SGH’s performance,comparative experiments with four prediction models were conducted:SVR,STL-SVR,LSTM,and STL-LSTM.The results demonstrated that MPMS-SGH surpassed all other models,achieving RMSE of 0.15℃for temperature,0.38%for humidity,and 260lx for light intensity.Additionally,sequence decomposition can contribute to enhancing MPMS-SGH’s prediction performance.To further evaluate MPMS-SGH’s capabilities,its prediction accuracy was tested across different seasons for greenhouse environmental parameters.MPMS-SGH had the highest accuracy in predicting indoor temperature and the lowest accuracy in predicting humidity.And the accuracy of MPMS-SGH in predicting environmental parameters of the solar greenhouse fluctuated with seasons.MPMS-SGH had the highest accuracy in predicting the temperature inside the greenhouse on sunny days in spring(R^(2)=0.91),the highest accuracy in predicting the humidity inside the greenhouse on sunny days in winter(R^(2)=0.83),and the highest accuracy in predicting the light intensity inside the greenhouse on cloudy days in autumm(R^(2)=0.89).MPMS-SGH had the lowest accuracy in predicting three environmental parameters in a sunny summer greenhouse.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42030605 and 42088101)National Key R&D Program of China(Grant No.2020YFA0608004)High Performance Computing of Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology for their support of this work。
文摘Marine heatwaves(MHWs),which can exert devastating socioeconomic and ecological impacts,have attracted much public interest in recent years.In this study,we evaluate the sub-seasonal forecast skill of MHWs based on the Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology Climate Forecast System version 1.1(NUIST CFS1.1)and analyze the related physical processes.Our results show that the model can accurately forecast the occurrence of MHWs on a global scale out to a lead time of 25 days.Notably,even at lead times of 51–55 days,the forecast skill in most tropical regions,as well as in the northeastern and southeastern Pacific,is superior to both random forecasts and persistence forecasts.Accurate predictions of sea level pressure,zonal currents,and mixed-layer depth are important for MHW forecasting.Furthermore,we also conduct forecast skill assessments for two well-documented MHW events.Due to its ability to correctly forecast the changes in heat flux anomalies at a lead time of 25 days,the model can accurately forecast the strong MHW event that occurred in the South China Sea in May–October 2020.However,the forecasting results were less than optimal for the strong MHW event that occurred along the Australian west coast in January–April 2011.Although the model accurately forecasts its occurrence,the forecast of its intensity is poor.Additionally,when the lead time exceeds 10 days,forecasts of the relevant physical processes of this MHW event are also inaccurate.
基金supported by Yunnan Provincial Basic Research Project(202401AT070344,202301AT070443)National Natural Science Foundation of China(62263014,52207105)+1 种基金Yunnan Lancang-Mekong International Electric Power Technology Joint Laboratory(202203AP140001)Major Science and Technology Projects in Yunnan Province(202402AG050006).
文摘Accurate short-term wind power forecast technique plays a crucial role in maintaining the safety and economic efficiency of smart grids.Although numerous studies have employed various methods to forecast wind power,there remains a research gap in leveraging swarm intelligence algorithms to optimize the hyperparameters of the Transformer model for wind power prediction.To improve the accuracy of short-term wind power forecast,this paper proposes a hybrid short-term wind power forecast approach named STL-IAOA-iTransformer,which is based on seasonal and trend decomposition using LOESS(STL)and iTransformer model optimized by improved arithmetic optimization algorithm(IAOA).First,to fully extract the power data features,STL is used to decompose the original data into components with less redundant information.The extracted components as well as the weather data are then input into iTransformer for short-term wind power forecast.The final predicted short-term wind power curve is obtained by combining the predicted components.To improve the model accuracy,IAOA is employed to optimize the hyperparameters of iTransformer.The proposed approach is validated using real-generation data from different seasons and different power stations inNorthwest China,and ablation experiments have been conducted.Furthermore,to validate the superiority of the proposed approach under different wind characteristics,real power generation data fromsouthwestChina are utilized for experiments.Thecomparative results with the other six state-of-the-art prediction models in experiments show that the proposed model well fits the true value of generation series and achieves high prediction accuracy.
基金primarily supported by the National Key R&D Program of China[grant number 2021YFC3000904]the Jiangsu Provincial Key Technology R&D Program[grant number BE2022851]National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 42405035]。
文摘Vector winds play a crucial role in weather and climate,as well as the effective utilization of wind energy resources.However,limited research has been conducted on treating the wind field as a vector field in the evaluation of numerical weather prediction models.In this study,the authors treat vector winds as a whole by employing a vector field evaluation method,and evaluate the mesoscale model of the China Meteorological Administration(CMA-MESO)and ECMWF forecast,with reference to ERA5 reanalysis,in terms of multiple aspects of vector winds over eastern China in 2022.The results show that the ECMWF forecast is superior to CMA-MESO in predicting the spatial distribution and intensity of 10-m vector winds.Both models overestimate the wind speed in East China,and CMA-MESO overestimates the wind speed to a greater extent.The forecasting skill of the vector wind field in both models decreases with increasing lead time.The forecasting skill of CMA-MESO fluctuates more and decreases faster than that of the ECMWF forecast.There is a significant negative correlation between the model vector wind forecasting skill and terrain height.This study provides a scientific evaluation of the local application of vector wind forecasts of the CMA-MESO model and ECMWF forecast.
基金supported by the Postdoctoral Fellowship Program of CPSF(Grant No.GZB20230685)the National Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42277161).
文摘Forecasting landslide deformation is challenging due to influence of various internal and external factors on the occurrence of systemic and localized heterogeneities.Despite the potential to improve landslide predictability,deep learning has yet to be sufficiently explored for complex deformation patterns associated with landslides and is inherently opaque.Herein,we developed a holistic landslide deformation forecasting method that considers spatiotemporal correlations of landslide deformation by integrating domain knowledge into interpretable deep learning.By spatially capturing the interconnections between multiple deformations from different observation points,our method contributes to the understanding and forecasting of landslide systematic behavior.By integrating specific domain knowledge relevant to each observation point and merging internal properties with external variables,the local heterogeneity is considered in our method,identifying deformation temporal patterns in different landslide zones.Case studies involving reservoir-induced landslides and creeping landslides demonstrated that our approach(1)enhances the accuracy of landslide deformation forecasting,(2)identifies significant contributing factors and their influence on spatiotemporal deformation characteristics,and(3)demonstrates how identifying these factors and patterns facilitates landslide forecasting.Our research offers a promising and pragmatic pathway toward a deeper understanding and forecasting of complex landslide behaviors.
